Poleward bound: adapting to climate-driven species redistribution

One of the most pronounced effects of climate change on the world's oceans is the (generally) poleward movement of species and fishery stocks in response to increasing water temperatures. In some regions, such redistributions are already causing dramatic shifts in marine socioecological systems, profoundly altering ecosystem structure and function, challenging domestic and international fisheries, and impacting on human communities. Such effects are expected to become increasingly widespread as waters continue to warm and species ranges continue to shift. Actions taken over the coming decade (2021-2030) can help us adapt to species redistributions and minimise negative impacts on ecosystems and human communities, achieving a more sustainable future in the face of ecosystem change. We describe key drivers related to climate-driven species redistributions that are likely to have a high impact and influence on whether a sustainable future is achievable by 2030. We posit two different futures-a 'business as usual' future and a technically achievable and more sustainable future, aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. We then identify concrete actions that provide a pathway towards the more sustainable 2030 and that acknowledge and include Indigenous perspectives. Achieving this sustainable future will depend on improved monitoring and detection, and on adaptive, cooperative management to proactively respond to the challenge of species redistribution. We synthesise examples of such actions as the basis of a strategic approach to tackle this global-scale challenge for the benefit of humanity and ecosystems.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09641-3.

Poleward bound: adapting to climate-driven species redistribution

One of the most pronounced effects of climate change on the world's oceans is the (generally) poleward movement of species and fishery stocks in response to increasing water temperatures. In some regions, such redistributions are already causing dramatic shifts in marine socioecological systems, profoundly altering ecosystem structure and function, challenging domestic and international fisheries, and impacting on human communities. Such effects are expected to become increasingly widespread as waters continue to warm and species ranges continue to shift. Actions taken over the coming decade (2021-2030) can help us adapt to species redistributions and minimise negative impacts on ecosystems and human communities, achieving a more sustainable future in the face of ecosystem change. We describe key drivers related to climate-driven species redistributions that are likely to have a high impact and influence on whether a sustainable future is achievable by 2030. We posit two different futures-a 'business as usual' future and a technically achievable and more sustainable future, aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. We then identify concrete actions that provide a pathway towards the more sustainable 2030 and that acknowledge and include Indigenous perspectives. Achieving this sustainable future will depend on improved monitoring and detection, and on adaptive, cooperative management to proactively respond to the challenge of species redistribution. We synthesise examples of such actions as the basis of a strategic approach to tackle this global-scale challenge for the benefit of humanity and ecosystems.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09641-3.

Upward shift and elevational range contractions of subtropical mountain plants in response to climate change

Elevational range shifts of mountain species in response to climate change have profound impact on mountain biodiversity. However, current evidence indicates great controversies in the direction and magnitude of elevational range shifts across species and regions. Here, using historical and recent occurrence records of 83 plant species in a subtropical mountain, Mt. Gongga (Sichuan, China), we evaluated changes in species elevation centroids and limits (upper and lower) along elevational gradients, and explored the determinants of elevational changes. We found that 63.9% of the species shifted their elevation centroids upward, while 22.9% shifted downward. The changes in centroid elevations and range size were more strongly correlated with changes in lower than upper limits of species elevational ranges. The magnitude of centroid elevation shifts was larger than predicted by climate warming and precipitation changes. Our results show complex changes in species elevational distributions and range sizes in Mt. Gongga, and that climate change, species traits and climate adaptation of species all influenced their elevational movement. As Mt. Gongga is one of the global biodiversity hotspots, and contains many threatened plant species, these findings provide support to future conservation planning.

Autonomous adaptation to climate-driven change in marine biodiversity in a global marine hotspot

While governments and natural resource managers grapple with how to respond to climatic changes, many marine-dependent individuals, organisations and user-groups in fast-changing regions of the world are already adjusting their behaviour to accommodate these. However, we have little information on the nature of these autonomous adaptations that are being initiated by resource user-groups. The east coast of Tasmania, Australia, is one of the world's fastest warming marine regions with extensive climate-driven changes in biodiversity already observed. We present and compare examples of autonomous adaptations from marine users of the region to provide insights into factors that may have constrained or facilitated the available range of autonomous adaptation options and discuss potential interactions with governmental planned adaptations. We aim to support effective adaptation by identifying the suite of changes that marine users are making largely without government or management intervention, i.e. autonomous adaptations, to better understand these and their potential interactions with formal adaptation strategies.

Limited effects of changing prey fish communities on food quality for aquatic predators in the eastern Canadian Arctic in terms of essential fatty acids, methylmercury and selenium

We determined concentrations of eicosapentaenoic and docosahexaenoic acids (EPA + DHA), Σomega-3, polyunsaturated fatty acids (ΣPUFA), selenium, methylmercury, and selenium:methylmercury (Se:Hg) ratios in native and northward-redistributing sub-Arctic marine fish and invertebrates from low, mid-, and high Canadian Arctic latitudes. There was no clear latitudinal trend in nutrient or contaminant concentrations. Among species, EPA + DHA concentrations in native Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) were similar to concentrations in sub-Arctic capelin (Mallotus villosus) and sand lance (Ammodytes spp.) (444-658 mg.100 g^-1), and higher than in most other species. Concentrations of EPA + DHA were related to lipid content, but to a greater extent for higher trophic position species (R² = 0.83) than for species at lower trophic positions (R² = 0.61). Selenium concentrations were higher in sand lance (1.15 ± 0.16 μg g^-1) than in all other species (0.30-0.69 μg g^-1), which was significantly, but weakly, explained by more pelagic feeding in sand lance. Methylmercury concentrations were similar (and Se:Hg ratios were higher) in capelin, sand lance, and Arctic cod (0.01-0.03 μg g^-1 wet weight (ww)) and lower than in other prey (0.12-0.26 μg g^-1 ww), which was significantly explained by the smaller size of these species and more pelagic feeding habits than other fish. These results suggested that a shift in prey fish composition from Arctic cod to capelin and/or sand lance is unlikely to reduce the food quality of the prey available to marine predators at least with respect to concentrations of essential fatty acids, selenium, and Se:Hg ratios.