Integrating modeling, monitoring, and management to reduce critical uncertainties in water resource decision making

Stream ecosystems provide multiple, valued services to society, including water supply, waste assimilation, recreation, and habitat for diverse and productive biological communities. Managers striving to sustain these services in the face of changing climate, land uses, and water demands need tools to assess the potential effectiveness of alternative management actions, and often, the resulting tradeoffs between competing objectives. Integrating predictive modeling with monitoring data in an adaptive management framework provides a process by which managers can reduce model uncertainties and thus improve the scientific bases for subsequent decisions. We demonstrate an integration of monitoring data with a dynamic, metapopulation model developed to assess effects of streamflow alteration on fish occupancy in a southeastern US stream system. Although not extensive (collected over three years at nine sites), the monitoring data allowed us to assess and update support for alternative population dynamic models using model probabilities and Bayes rule. We then use the updated model weights to estimate the effects of water withdrawal on stream fish communities and demonstrate how feedback in the form of monitoring data can be used to improve water resource decision making. We conclude that investment in more strategic monitoring, guided by a priori model predictions under alternative hypotheses and an adaptive sampling design, could substantially improve the information available to guide decision-making and management for ecosystem services from lotic systems.

Predicting community-environment relationships of stream fishes across multiple drainage basins: insights into model generality and the effect of spatial extent

Resource managers increasingly rely on predictive models to understand species-environment relationships. Stream fish communities are influenced by longitudinal position within the stream network as well as local environmental characteristics that are constrained by catchment characteristics. Despite an abundance of studies quantifying species-environment relationships, few studies have evaluated the generality of these relationships among basins and spatial extents. We modeled community composition of stream fishes in thirteen sub-basins, nested within three basins in Kansas, USA using constrained ordination and environmental predictor variables representing (1) longitudinal network position, (2) local habitat, and (3) catchment characteristics. We tested the generality of species-environment relationships by quantifying the variation in model performance and the importance of environmental variables among the thirteen sub-basins and among three spatial extents (sub-basin, basin, state). Model performance was variable across the thirteen sub-basins, with adjusted constrained inertia ranging from 0.13 to 0.36. The importance of environmental variables was also variable among sub-basins, but longitudinal network position consistently predicted more variation in community composition than local or catchment variables. Model performance did not differ among spatial extents, but the importance of longitudinal network position decreased at broader spatial extents whereas local and catchment variables increased in importance. Results of this study support the longstanding frameworks of the river continuum and hierarchically-structured habitat. We show that (1) the relative importance of longitudinal network position, local characteristics, and catchment characteristics can vary from one region to another and (2) the spatial extent at which predictive habitat models are developed can influence the perceived importance of different environmental predictor variables. Resource managers should consider physiographic context and spatial extent when developing predictive habitat models for management and conservation purposes.

Fish species richness and incidence patterns in isolated and connected stream pools: effects of pool volume and spatial position

I tested the effects of pool size and spatial position (upstream or downstream) on fish assemblage attributes in isolated and connected pools in an upland Oklahoma stream, United States. I hypothesized that there would be fundamental differences between assemblages in these two pool types due to the presence or absence of colonization opportunities. Analyses were carried out at three ecological scales: (1) the species richness of pool assemblages, (2) the species composition of pool assemblages, and (3) the responses of individual species. There were significant species-volume relationships for isolated and connected pools. However, the relationship was weaker and there were fewer species, on average, in isolated pools. For both pool types, species incidences were significantly nested such that species-poor pools tended to be subsets of species-rich pools, a common pattern that ultimately results from species-specific differences in colonization ability and/or extinction susceptibility. To examine the potential importance of these two processes in nestedness patterns in both pool types, I made the following two assumptions: (1) probability of extinction should decline with increasing pool size, and (2) probability of immigration should decline in an upstream direction (increasing isolation). When ordered by pool volume, only isolated pools were significantly nested suggesting that these assemblages were extinction-driven. When ordered by spatial position, only connected pools were significantly nested (more species downstream) suggesting that differences in species-specific dispersal abilities were important in structuring these assemblages. At the individual-species level, volume was a significant predictor of occurrence for three species in isolated pools. In connected pools, two species showed significant position effects, one species showed a pool volume effect, and one species showed pool volume and position effects. These results demonstrate that pool size and position within a watershed are important determinants of fish species assemblage structure, but their importance varies with the colonization potential of the pools. Isolated pool assemblages are similar to the presumed relaxed faunas of montane forest fragments and land bridge islands, but at much smaller space and time scales.