Non-compliant packaging and illicit smokeless tobacco in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan: findings of a pack analysis

INTRODUCTION

Illicit smokeless tobacco (ST) trade has seldom been documented despite ST use in at least 127 countries across the world. Based on non-compliance with packaging regulations, we report the proportion of illicit ST products from samples on sale in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan where 85% of global ST users reside.

METHODS

We purchased unique ST products from tobacco sellers in two purposively selected administrative areas (division/district) in each of the three countries. The criteria to determine illicit ST products were based on country-specific legal requirements for ST packaging and labelling. These requirements included: 'market retail price disclosure', 'sale statement disclosure', 'pictorial health warning (PHW) pertinence', 'appropriate textual health warning' and 'using misleading descriptors (MDs)'. Non-compliance with even one of the legal requirements was considered to render the ST product illicit.

RESULTS

Almost all ST products bought in Bangladesh and India were non-compliant with the local packaging requirements and hence potentially illicit, all products in Pakistan lacked desirable features. The most common feature missing was health warnings: 84% packs in Bangladesh, 93% in India, and 100% in Pakistan either did not have PHW or their sizes were too small. In Bangladesh, 61% packs carried MDs. In India and Pakistan, the proportions of such packs were 32% and 42%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Weak and poorly enforced ST control policies may be slowing the progress of tobacco control in South Asia. Standardised regulations are required for packaging and labelling ST. Improving compliance and reducing sale of cheap illicit products may require business licensing and market surveillance.

Smoking prevalence and purchasing of menthol cigarettes since the menthol flavour ban in Great Britain: a population-based survey between 2020 and 2023

BACKGROUND

Menthol cigarettes have been banned in Great Britain (GB) since May 2020. Still, menthol accessories and unlabelled cigarettes perceived as mentholated are available, and people can buy menthol cigarettes overseas or illicitly. This study assessed: trends in smoking menthol cigarettes among all adults and 18-24-year-olds in GB between October 2020 and March 2023; trends in and differences between England, Scotland and Wales during the same period and purchase sources among people smoking menthol versus non-flavoured cigarettes.

METHODS

Population-weighted data were from a monthly cross-sectional survey of adults in GB. Among people smoking cigarettes, we calculated the proportion smoking menthol cigarettes across all adults and 18-24-year-olds, and prevalence ratios (PR) between the first and last quarter. We also calculated the proportions of people smoking menthol/non-flavoured cigarettes by purchase source (including illicit sources).

RESULTS

In the first quarter, 16.2% of adults smoking cigarettes reported menthol cigarette smoking with little to no decline throughout the study (PR 0.85, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.01), while it declined among 18-24-year-olds (PR 0.75, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.89). The prevalence of menthol cigarette smoking fell by two-thirds in Wales (PR 0.36, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.62) but remained relatively stable in England (PR 0.88, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.06) and Scotland (PR 0.94, 95% CI 0.59 to 1.53). The main purchasing sources were licit (93.9%), 14.8% reported illicit sources and 11.5% cross-border purchases, without notable differences from people smoking non-flavoured cigarettes.

CONCLUSIONS

Roughly one million adults in GB still smoke menthol cigarettes and, with the exception of Wales and young people, there were no noteworthy changes in the post-ban period. There was no indication that the overall persistence of menthol smoking was driven by illicit purchases.

How much to pay for a track and trace system: a simulation model for South Africa

BACKGROUND

The illicit trade in tobacco reduces the effectiveness of tobacco-control policies. Independent track and trace (T&T) systems are considered one of the most effective measures available to reduce the illicit tobacco trade. South Africa, with an illicit trade estimated at over 35% of the total market, is yet to implement a T&T system.

METHODS

An Excel-based simulation model is used to determine the break-even T&T marker cost per pack. At the break-even cost per pack, the government would recover all costs associated with implementing T&T by collecting additional revenues. We conduct a scenario analysis to provide a range of break-even marker costs.

FINDINGS

A marker cost of between R2.68 (US$0.17) and R5.24 (US$0.34) per pack allows the South African government to collect enough additional revenue to recover all costs associated with T&T. Implementing such a system would reduce cigarette consumption by between 5% and 11.5%. Given that comparable systems cost significantly less than this range (roughly US$0.02 per pack), the government would in all likelihood be able to implement a system at a cost below the break-even rate, thus generating additional revenue.

CONCLUSION

The break-even simulation model provides a practical tool for the government to plan the implementation of T&T and to set up an evaluation criteria for the T&T tender process. The simulations illustrate that implementing T&T in South Africa would both reduce consumption (licit and illicit) and generate additional revenue. With some modifications, the model can be applied to other countries as well.

How can tracking and tracing systems give us a look at the dark side of the tobacco market?

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this work is to present possible applications of the systems of tobacco traceability for guiding local enforcement against illicit trade.

METHODS

The proposed three-step strategy relies on a robust regression technique and Local Moran's I, a local indicator of spatial association, and aims at identifying retail outlets with significantly low sales compared to normal market conditions, which can indicate illegal sales activities. The ability of the method to produce alerts pointing to areas subject to illicit trade is tested on synthetic data in terms of precision and accuracy in different scenarios. Other metrics are also provided.

RESULTS

Our approach performs well under different metrics and across various levels of illicit trade prevalence, achieving a precision of 94% under the main scenario and method parametrisation.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed strategy provides high-quality leads for investigations into geographical areas disproportionately susceptible to illicit trade, potentially unveiling any form of illegal sales, including those involving products that have never entered the legal supply chain. Therefore, it can be a valuable tool for law enforcement agencies to tackle illegal sales activities. The findings of this study support also the argument in favour of expanding tobacco traceability systems downstream to the full length of the supply chain.

Improving estimates of the illicit cigarette trade through collaboration: lessons from two studies of Malaysia

This paper critically analyses contrasting estimates of Malaysia's illicit cigarette trade in 2011, 2015 and 2019 by Bui et al and Koya et al who previously produced independent estimates at about the same time using tax gap analysis. Collaboration between the two authors' teams emerged due to the discrepancies in their results, generating this paper to explore the methodological issues identified and hence produce revised estimates of the rate of illicit. Key issues identified were: Bui et al's assessment of legally imported cigarettes impacting all years; their exclusion of ad valorem duty affecting the 2011 and 2015 estimates; Koya et al overlooked the value of cigarettes for export market in their ad valorem calculation and used the sales value of imported tobacco/tobacco products, not just cigarettes, both of which impact estimates for 2011 and 2015. Recalculations using Koya et al's consumption data reveal that in 2019, illicit cigarettes accounted for about 70% of the market, which is higher than Bui et al's estimate (38%) but slightly lower than Koya et al's (72%). For 2011 and 2015 where ad valorem applied, the corrected estimates show a share of the illicit cigarette market of approximately 41.1% and 52.7%, respectively, differing from Bui et al's 0% in 2011 and 29.6% in 2015, and Koya et al's 51% in 2011 and 55% in 2015. This paper provides essential lessons for addressing methodological issues between authors' teams and updated estimates of Malaysia's illicit cigarette trade, verifying that Malaysia faces a substantial illicit cigarette trade problem.

No smoking gun: tobacco taxation and smuggling in Sierra Leone

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the common industry claim that higher tobacco taxation leads to higher levels of smuggling, particularly in a limited state capacity setting.

DESIGN

This paper evaluates the effects of a tobacco tax increase in Sierra Leone on smuggling by using gap analyses. Its models are based on multiple rounds of the Demographic and Health Survey and customs data as well as newly collected data on cigarette prices.

RESULTS

The paper shows that despite a substantial increase in cigarette taxation, and despite the absence of other formal tobacco control policies, smuggling has not increased in Sierra Leone. Its primary model shows a decrease in cigarette smuggling by 16.74% following the tax increase, alongside a decrease in cigarette consumption more widely and an increase in tax revenue.

CONCLUSIONS

By presenting a low income and lower enforcement capacity case study, this paper provides novel and critical evidence to the debate on the tax-smuggling link. Furthermore, it points to new questions on how states in these contexts can limit cigarette smuggling.

Tobacco industry compliance with the EU track and tracing system in Lithuania

BACKGROUND

The European Union (EU)-wide tobacco tracking and tracing system (T&T system) became operational on 20 May 2019, allowing a transitional period and gradual installation of the system until May 2020. This study attempts to assess the EU T&T system using a sample of discarded cigarette packs collected in Lithuania.

METHODS

The empty pack survey was conducted between September 2019 and September 2020, covering both the transitional period and the period of full implementation. The study employed a two-stage cluster design by first randomly selecting 65 well-defined population clusters (30 cities and 35 towns) representing both urban and rural areas in all 10 counties in Lithuania. Second, we randomly selected 358 polling districts (routes) in each cluster.

RESULTS

The fieldworkers walked at least 1074 km and collected 5727 discarded empty cigarette packs. None of the packs found during the EU T&T transitional period had a unique identifier (UI). After the full implementation of the EU T&T system, 32.0% of the collected packs were still without a UI. 5.8% of licit packs were without a UI after the May 2020 deadline. Most of the legal non-compliant packs (131, or 69.7%) were intended for the Lithuanian market. Close to 85% of packs that had duty-free markings were non-compliant.

CONCLUSION

The tobacco industry most likely disregarded the EU T&T transitional period as no packs with UIs were found up until the full implementation. Packs without UIs were still found 4 months after the full implementation of the EU T&T system.

The cigarette market in Brazil: new evidence on illicit practices from the 2019 National Health Survey

OBJECTIVE

To explore new evidence on illicit practices, such as selling legal brands below the minimum legal price (MLP), and smugglers selling illicit brands at or above the MLP.

METHODS

For the first time in Brazil, self-reported information on cigarette brand name and price paid per pack in smokers' last purchase from a nationally representative survey conducted in 2019 was used to distinguish the illicit and the legal markets. We estimated the proportion of illicit cigarette consumption, using the combination of brand and price.

RESULTS

The proportion of smuggled illicit cigarette consumption based on brands not approved on the Brazilian market was estimated at 38.6% (95% CI: 35.8% to 41.5%). When we added legal brands not paying taxes, it increased to 47.1% (95% CI: 44.2% to 49.9%). Around 25% of illicit brand cigarettes were sold at or above MLP.

CONCLUSIONS

In Brazil, since 2017 there is a lack of adjustment in tobacco taxes and the MLP for inflation and income growth. The increase in cigarette affordability and the presence on the market of a segment of 'higher-priced' illicit brands suggest patterns of illicit brand loyalty and/or perceived 'brand quality' among smokers of illicit cigarettes. The evidence also shows that a sizeable proportion of legal brand cigarettes were sold below the MLP. This study offers insight into what happened in circumstances in which a government failed to keep current with tax policies and the monitoring of domestic manufacturing. Brazil has been a world leader in the monitoring of the tobacco epidemic, and this study also offers an innovative use of data that an increasing number of countries are collecting.

Extent of illicit cigarette sales in Nepal: findings from a retail survey

INTRODUCTION

Increasing the tax on cigarettes is widely considered the most effective method to reduce its consumption. However, Nepal has a low cigarette tax as policymakers in Nepal are concerned about illicit trade of cigarettes if taxes are increased.

METHODS

The study employed a retail survey approach used in India suitable for countries with prevalent loose cigarette sales, with improved methodology. In 2021, empty cigarette packs generated in a day's loose cigarette sales were collected directly from cigarette retailers from 23 primary sampling units covering rural/urban, geographic divisions, border/non-border to India and tobacco factory locations. The central points of each primary sampling unit were identified, and retailers were selected for the survey. A cigarette pack was classified as illicit if it had at least one of the following attributes: (a) no authentic excise duty sticker, (b) no graphic health warning, (c) no mention of 'maximum retail price/MRP' and (d) no production date, name, address and trademark.

FINDINGS

We collected 4307 empty cigarette packs from 1204 retailers and 0.33% of them were classified as illicit. The estimates varied across location with the highest prevalence of illicit packs in Kathmandu (1.25%). All the illicit cigarettes were imported and were high-priced brands (>90%), mostly found in urban areas and not bordering India.

CONCLUSION

Our estimate of the illicit cigarette market share of 0.33% suggests that the industry's statement of 25% is grossly overstated.

Profile of menthol cigarette smokers in the months following the removal of these products from the market: a cross-sectional population survey in England

INTRODUCTION

In May 2020, the EU Tobacco Products Directive ban on the sale of menthol cigarettes was implemented in England. This study examined the prevalence of menthol cigarette smoking after the ban, according to sociodemographic and smoking characteristics.

METHODS

Cross-sectional data came from a representative survey of current smokers (18+) in England (unweighted n=2681) between July 2020 and June 2021. The weighted prevalence of menthol cigarette smoking as a proportion of total cigarette smoking was calculated, log-binomial regression explored trends over time, and χ2 statistics assessed the relationship between menthol smoking, sociodemographic and smoking characteristics. Sources of purchase of menthol cigarettes were explored.

RESULTS

Between July 2020 and June 2021, 15.7% (95% CI 14.5 to 17.1) of smokers reported smoking menthol cigarettes. The fitted non-linear trend supported no initial change followed by a possible reduction across April-June 2021 and fit the data better than linear and null (no change) models (χ2(2)=2519.7, p=0.06; χ2(3)=2519.7, p=0.006). Menthol cigarette smoking was more common among younger groups (16-24=25.2%; 25-34=19.9%) and women (19.4%). Menthol cigarette smokers showed lower cigarette dependence compared with other smokers. Past-6-month purchases of menthol cigarettes from any illicit or cross-border source declined from 30.1% in the last 6 months of 2020 to 17.5% in the first 6 months of 2021.

CONCLUSIONS

A substantial minority of current smokers in England reported menthol cigarette smoking between July 2020 and June 2021, despite the ban, possibly reflecting mitigation of restrictions by a variety of licit means, such as legal menthol accessories. The reduction in menthol smoking across April-June 2021 warrants further monitoring.

Analysis of the illicit tobacco market in Georgia in response to fiscal and non-fiscal tobacco control measures

BACKGROUND

Georgian illicit cigarette consumption was 1.5% in 2017. In 2018, a new tobacco control law took effect followed by a substantial cigarette excise tax increase in 2019. Research shows these policies reduce tobacco consumption, but the tobacco industry argues they increase illicit trade. There is limited evidence on this, particularly from developing countries.

METHODS

A panel household survey in Georgia obtained data over three waves: 2017 baseline, 2018 after the tobacco control law took effect and 2019 after taxes increased. A sample of 1578 smokers (and quitters in later waves) from five regions reported their tobacco use and were asked to present a cigarette pack in their possession. These were examined for tax stamps and health warnings to establish legality.

FINDINGS

There was no evidence of an increase in illicit cigarette consumption in Tbilisi, Kutaisi, Akhaltsikhe or Gori in any wave. In Zugdidi, near the Russian-occupied Abkhazia, illicit cigarette consumption was increasing even prior to the tax increase, reaching 30.9% by wave 3. A country-wide shift occurred from manufactured cigarettes to roll-your-own tobacco (whose tax remained unchanged) between waves 2 and 3.

CONCLUSION

No evidence of a country-wide increase in illicit cigarette trade was found after non-fiscal tobacco measures took effect and cigarette taxes increased. Relatively high illicit cigarette consumption in Zugdidi highlights the role of disputed territories and border administration in illicit cigarette supply. Substitution towards roll-your-own tobacco after manufactured cigarette taxes increased demonstrates the importance of equalising taxes on tobacco products to maximise public health benefits.

Analysing the trend of illicit tobacco in the Philippines from 1998 to 2018

Tobacco taxation is the most effective measure to reduce cigarette consumption and consequently improve public health outcomes. It is also an important source of government revenue. The presence of an illicit tobacco market diminishes the public health and fiscal gains of cigarette levies by making cheaper non-taxed cigarettes available. To date, the research on the extent of illicit tobacco trade in the Philippines, despite its potential to inform policies for controlling the supply of illicit cigarettes, has been limited. This study provides an estimate of the size of the illicit tobacco market in the Philippines from 1998 to 2018. It employs gap analysis comparing an estimate of the survey-based adult cigarette consumption with legally sold cigarettes in the Philippines. The illicit trade estimates are contrasted with the evolution of tax changes. The results show that the illicit cigarette market share dropped by 42% from 2003 to 2008 and by an additional 79% from 2008 to 2013. In spite of the large tax increases by the Philippine government through the Sin Tax Law starting from 2013 until 2018, the illicit share in 2018 remains similar to its 1998 level of 16% of the total market. Hence, our study finds no evidence of a positive relationship between tobacco taxes and size of illicit cigarette market in the Philippines.

The temporary ban on tobacco sales in South Africa: lessons for endgame strategies

BACKGROUND

The endgame literature recommends that, for a tobacco sales ban to be successful, several demand-side preconditions (eg, low prevalence and effective cessation support) should be in place. The South African Government imposed a ban on the sale of all tobacco and vaping products between 27 March and 17 August 2020, as part of the COVID-19 lockdown.

OBJECTIVES

To assess how cigarette smokers responded to the sales ban, to evaluate how the ban impacted the cigarette market in South Africa and to use the South African experience to inform endgame planning.

METHODS

Regular preban cigarette smokers completed an online questionnaire from 4 to 19 June 2020 (n=23 631), in which they reported on their prelockdown cigarette smoking patterns, quitting behaviour (if relevant) and smoking behaviour during the ban.

RESULTS

About 9% of prelockdown smokers in the sample successfully quit smoking. 93% of continuing smokers purchased cigarettes despite the sales ban. The average price of cigarettes increased by 250% relative to prelockdown prices. Most respondents purchased cigarettes through informal channels.

CONCLUSIONS

The demand-side preconditions for an effective sales ban were not in place in South Africa, making a sales ban inappropriate. The South African experience suggests that supply-side factors are also important in ensuring the success of a sales ban. These are: (1) the illicit market must be under control before implementing a sales ban; and (2) an effective sales ban needs to be synchronised with a ban on the manufacture, transport and distribution of cigarettes.

Illicit cigarette trade in the cities of Pakistan: comparing findings between the consumer and waste recycle store surveys

BACKGROUND

Concerns about the magnitude of illicit cigarette trade have prevented the Government of Pakistan from increasing tobacco taxes. We estimated the proportion of illicit cigarettes sold in Pakistani cities. Moreover, we compared two methods for collecting cigarette packs and investigated if the illicit cigarette trade equates to tax evasion.

METHOD

We analysed cigarette packs collected from 10 cities of Pakistan using two methods: consumer survey based on a two-stage random sampling strategy to recruit adult smokers and photograph their cigarette packs and waste recycle store survey to purchase used cigarette packs. Cigarettes were considered illicit if any one of the following was absent from their packs: text and pictorial health warning, underage sale prohibition warning, retail price and manufacturer's name. From the consumer survey, we also estimated the proportion of smokers who purchased loose cigarettes (illegal) and packs below the minimum retail price. Taxation officers (n=4) were consulted to assess their level of confidence in judging tax evasion using the above criteria.

RESULTS

Out of 2416 cigarette packs in the consumer survey, 454 (17.8%; 95% CI 15.4% to 20.2%) were illicit. Similarly, out of 6213 packs from waste recycle shops, 1046 (16.8%; 95% CI 15.9% to 17.7%) were illicit; the difference was not statistically significant (p=0.473). Among consumers, 29.5% bought loose cigarettes and 13.8% paid less than the minimum retail price. The taxation officers considered the manufacturer's name and retail price on cigarette packs as the most relevant criteria to detect tax evasion.

CONCLUSIONS

One in six cigarette packs consumed in Pakistan could be illicit. These figures are far less than those propagated by the tobacco industry. Collecting packs from waste recycle stores is an efficient and valid method to estimate illicit cigarette trade.

Illicit tobacco trade: empty pack survey in eight Argentinean cities

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence of illicit tobacco trade (ITT) and different ITT modes-tax stamp counterfeiting and smuggling-in Argentina.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study using an empty tobacco pack survey with a simple random cluster sampling design. Classification as licit/illicit using forensic analysis of tax stamps and packs and econometric modelling.

SETTING

Cities of Buenos Aires, La Matanza, Cordoba, Rosario, Mendoza, Neuquen, Posadas, Salta; January-June 2019.

RESULTS

Of a total sample of 15 658 packs, 83.2% were manufactured in Argentina and 16.8% were foreign packs. Overall ITT prevalence-weighted by district population size-was estimated at 13.7%, where 6.1% was attributable to stamp counterfeiting-that is, a forged stamp not issued by the national tax authority-and 7.6% to contraband smuggling of foreign cigarette packs-that is, illicit trade of packs across national borders.

CONCLUSIONS

The ITT problem in Argentina seems to be equally represented by counterfeiting of tobacco tax stamps on packs with domestic features and smuggling of foreign cigarette packs. Foreign cigarettes represent a minor component of the pack sampled in most of the country, except in Salta and Posadas, which are located close to the border with Paraguay. It is essential to implement an effective track-and-trace system including the monitoring of tax stamp authenticity and increase border control to block the entry of smuggled products, particularly from Paraguay. Reducing ITT is necessary to ensure the effectiveness of tobacco taxation measures.

Tobacco tax evasion in Western Balkan countries: tax evasion prevalence and evasion determinants

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Tobacco tax evasion undermines the goal of tobacco taxes as a tobacco control measure to make tobacco products less affordable, increases the health risks for those who smoke and decreases the government revenue. This paper analyses the tobacco tax evasion in six Western Balkan (WB) countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. The aim of this research is to estimate the size of the illicit market and identify the main determinants of tax evasion activities in the Southeastern European region.

DATA AND METHODS

Data from 2019 Survey on Tobacco Consumption in Southeastern Europe (STC-SEE) are used. STC-SEE provides uniquely comparable nationally representative data on smoking behaviour for adult (18-85 years old) population for each country. Tax evasion is defined on the basis of available information on tax stamps, health warnings, price and the place of purchase, in accordance with the previous research on tax evasion. In order to estimate the determinants of illicit purchases we use binary choice model of tax evasion.

RESULTS

The study finds that 20.4% of all current smokers in WB countries evade taxes on tobacco products, with evasion being much more frequent for hand-rolled (HR) tobacco (86.7%) than for the manufactured cigarettes (MC) (8.6%). While HR is predominantly illicit in all six countries, MC evasion varies significantly, with evasion being significantly higher in Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Results further suggest that tax evasion is higher in the statistical regions where institutional capacities to tackle illicit trade are lower, in municipalities bordering countries with high MC evasion, as well as among smokers with low income, women and elderly. We also provide evidence that higher tobacco taxes and prices do not increase illicit consumption.

CONCLUSION

The findings from the research suggest that in order to decrease tax evasion, governments should put additional effort to strengthen institutional capacities to tackle illicit tobacco markets. Furthermore, improving regional coordination in development and implementation of tobacco control policies, including the prevention of illicit market, is essential in lowering evasion in all WB countries. Finally, WB countries should regulate and enforce excise tax stamp requirements on the HR tobacco market to a much higher degree.

Illicit trade in tobacco products: recent trends and coming challenges

BACKGROUND

Illicit trade in tobacco products is a menace to the goal of eliminating tobacco consumption. Although tax policy is very effective in reducing consumption, illicit trade can reduce (though not eliminate) its effectiveness.

METHODS

This article discusses the recent evolution of illicit trade and the context in which it occurred; the new methods that have been developed to measure it and, finally, the challenges in the next phase in the control of illicit trade.

RESULTS

There has been a remarkable stability in the penetration of cigarette illicit trade in the past decade. Such a stability, however, occurred in a world of shrinking tobacco consumption, implying a decreasing absolute illicit trade. Most countries have progressed in increasing tobacco taxes and changing tax structures. Prices of illicit cigarettes follow legal cigarette prices. Concomitantly, many new studies, independent from the tobacco industry, have been conducted allowing for better understanding of the illicit trade and providing inputs to its solution. The entry into force of the WHO FCTC Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products provides both a global and a national policy framework to further curb illicit trade. Instruments such as track-and-trace systems must be promoted and adopted to maximise reductions in illicit trade.

CONCLUSIONS

Global efforts to curb the illicit trade in tobacco products are gaining momentum and progress has been made in many parts of the world. The next decade can witness a decisive decrease in tobacco consumption, both licit and illicit, if countries further engage in international collaboration.

Turning a threat into an opportunity: British American Tobacco's weakening of the Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products

BACKGROUND

Previous research has outlined transnational tobacco company (TTC) efforts to undermine implementation of the Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products (Protocol) and evidence of ongoing TTC complicity in the illicit tobacco trade (ITT). However, the industry's views on the Protocol and role in its development are not well understood.

METHODS

Systematic searching and analysis of leaked documents-approximately 15 000 from British American Tobacco (BAT) and 35 from Philip Morris International, triangulated via searches of online resources and interviews with five stakeholders across academia, international organisations, governments, civil society and the private sector.

FINDINGS

Evidence indicates that after privately viewing the Protocol as a significant threat (2003), BAT worked to influence its content, while publicly signalling support for it (2007-2012), and was largely satisfied with the final text. BAT successfully pushed for a non-prescriptive text which enabled further country-level TTC influence during the Protocol's implementation phase. The final text also reflected other BAT policy preferences, including preventing outright bans on duty-free sales and intermingling, and making it difficult to sanction and hold tobacco companies accountable for ongoing involvement in the ITT. TTC representatives were present during early Protocol negotiations, despite rules against this, and BAT obtained draft texts before they were public and paid at least one delegate to support its position.

CONCLUSIONS

BAT's primary interest in shaping the Protocol was to minimise its financial and legal costs for BAT while maximising potential costs to small competitors. These findings raise concern about the Protocol's ability to control the ITT, particularly given TTCs' intention to influence ongoing national implementation. An effective Protocol is vital to controlling both the ITT and ongoing tobacco industry involvement in it and, in turn, governments' ability to increase tobacco taxes and thereby save lives.

The Market for Bidis, Smokeless Tobacco, and Cigarettes in India: Evidence From Semi-Urban and Rural Areas in Five States

Objectives: Compare the brand availability, pricing and presence of illicit products in semi-urban and rural areas in India across product types and states.

Methods: In late 2017, 382 unique tobacco products were purchased from localities with populations under 50,000 in the states of Assam, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh. Brand, printed maximum retail price, price paid, tax, and health warning labels (HWLs) were used to compare the market for bidis, smokeless tobacco (SLT), and cigarettes.

Results: Brand availability and pricing of SLT products was similar to cigarettes. Brand availability and pricing of bidis was consistent with having many small producers. Bidis and single serving SLT with spice mixtures were more affordable than cigarettes and SLT sold alone. 2% of SLT and 10% of cigarettes did not feature an India HWL.

Conclusion: The elimination of single serving SLT packets and the removal of tax exemptions for small producers, often exploited by bidi producers, could reduce their respective affordability. State differences in illegal and illicit products could indicate a greater need for enforcement in some states.

Quantifying the social costs and benefits of tobacco in Estonia

BACKGROUND

The tobacco cost literature has predominantly focused on estimating direct healthcare costs and productivity losses from morbidity and mortality. This study places a greater focus on the effects that arise through the fiscal system, illicit trade and fire accidents to estimate the social costs and benefits of tobacco use in Estonia in 2018.

METHODS

A prevalence-based cost-of-illness approach was used, relying on data from the 2017-2018 period. Age-specific tobacco-attributable fractions were employed to estimate the costs and benefits of tobacco-related morbidity and mortality. Data on mortality, morbidity and healthcare costs were received from the National Institute of Health Development and the Estonian Health Insurance Fund. We used data for offences and fires from the Estonian Rescue Board and the Estonian Tax and Customs Board.

RESULTS

It was estimated that the total social cost attributable to tobacco in Estonia in 2018 was €174 million, representing 0.67% of the nation's GDP. If future benefits are also considered, the net social cost is €78 million. While the greatest cost components are productivity losses from mortality and morbidity, the level of tobacco-related law enforcement costs are comparable to direct healthcare costs, both of which exceed €10 million annually.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the substantial social benefits arising through the fiscal system, tobacco-related costs outweighed these benefits in Estonia in 2018. In addition, a considerable portion of the economic burden of tobacco is associated with illicit trade. Therefore, the healthcare and law enforcement sectors would both benefit from effective tobacco control policies.

Measuring the illicit cigarette market in the absence of pack security features: a case study of South Africa

There are several ways to measure the illicit cigarette market. In South Africa, different methods were used to triangulate results. The aim of this paper is to assist researchers to decide which method is most suitable to their context, especially for countries that do not have security features on cigarette packs (eg, tax stamps). We analysed the methods and results from three published articles that used various approaches to measure cigarette illicit trade in South Africa: (1) gap analysis, (2) price threshold method using secondary data from a national survey, and (3) price threshold method using primary data collected in low socioeconomic areas. We provide methodological insights and background information. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each method. The method chosen by researchers will depend on data availability, the existence or absence of security features on cigarette packs and funding. Researchers investigating illicit trade should use more than one method to increase confidence in the obtained results.

Tracking and tracing the tobacco industry: potential tobacco industry influence over the EU's system for tobacco traceability and security features

BACKGROUND

Subsequent to the transnational tobacco companies' (TTC) history of involvement in tobacco smuggling, the Illicit Trade Protocol (ITP) requires that tobacco tracking and tracing (T&T) systems be established independent of the industry. In response, TTCs developed a T&T system, originally called Codentify, promoting it via an elaborate set of front groups to create a false impression of independence. The European Union (EU) is one of the first and largest jurisdictions to operationalise T&T. We explore how industry efforts to influence T&T have evolved.

METHODS

Analysis of tobacco industry documents, policy documents, submissions to a relevant consultation and relationships between the tobacco industry and organisations proposed by it and approved by the European Commission to provide a data repository function within the EU's T&T system.

FINDINGS

17 months after TTCs sold Codentify to Inexto and Philip Morris International claimed Inexto was independent, leaked documents suggest TTCs and Inexto continued to have a financial and operational relationship. Inexto's meetings with TTCs, engagement with EU Member States and promotion of industry-favoured technical standards suggest TTCs influenced Inexto's activities, using the company to undermine EU T&T. The EU's T&T system appears to be inconsistent with the ITP due to its 'mixed' governance and seven of eight organisations approved as data repository providers having pre-existing industry business links.

CONCLUSIONS

TTC's efforts to maximise their control and minimise external scrutiny of T&T systems seriously limit attempts to address tobacco smuggling. Countries implementing T&T should be alert to such efforts and should not replicate the EU system.

Discrepancies in the Brazilian tobacco production chain: raw inputs, international trade and legal cigarette production

BACKGROUND

The significant market share of illicit cigarettes in Brazil is well established in the literature, nonetheless lacking clarity in terms of its actual size. Paraguay has a paramount role in this discussion, acting both as a supplier of illegal tobacco products to Brazil and as buyer of inputs from Brazil. A proper analysis of the illicit cigarette market in Brazil necessarily involves a deeper discussion of the Paraguayan production chain and its interaction with the Brazilian market.

METHODS

International data were used to establish the bilateral legal trade pattern of tobacco-related products between Paraguay and Brazil, including inputs and final outputs. Inspired by the technical requirements methodology, available unmanufactured tobacco within Brazil was obtained by adding-up domestic production with net imports. Its historical behaviour was compared with legal cigarette production patterns within Brazil. Supposing rational agents, these two links of the Brazilian cigarette production chain should behave similarly: for lower final usage, less domestically available supply. Any discrepancies would suggest something abnormal in the production chain.

RESULTS

Brazil is a relevant legal supplier of intermediate goods for the Paraguayan tobacco complex and has an irrelevant position as legal buyer of Paraguayan tobacco-related goods (either inputs or final goods). Paraguayan net imports of production inputs seem to be abnormally high for their legal needs. In Brazil, a clear discrepancy between domestically available unmanufactured tobacco (input) and tax-based cigarette production (output) emerged throughout the years and, even more striking, has been growing over the years.

CONCLUSIONS

Excessive cigarette production inputs in Paraguay suggest a potential oversupply of cigarettes in that country-likely diverted to illicit trade. Likewise, discrepancies in the Brazilian tobacco production chain are also evidence of illicit tobacco trading in Brazil-not necessarily of final products. A deeper analysis of the Brazil/Paraguay tobacco supply chain would be welcomed given the likely operation of these two countries as a single 'production/consumption hub' of both legal and illegal products (either inputs or final tobacco products). Public policies should foster controls not only on cigarettes but also on raw inputs for their production.

Impact of tax increases on illicit cigarette trade in Mongolia

BACKGROUND

The Mongolian government increased import tobacco tax by 30% in May 2017 and excise tobacco tax by 10% in January 2018. To assess the impact of these tax increases on illicit cigarette trade, we estimate illicit trade before and after tax increases.

METHODS

Discarded cigarette packs were collected in the capital city and in two provinces near China, the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan. Tax increases occurred between all three rounds (April 2017, August/September 2017, May/June 2018). Cigarette packs are identified as illicit if there is evidence that tax was not paid. This is deduced from the absence of the Mongolian excise tax stamp, or the absence of traces of a tax stamp (glue residue). Data are weighted to represent the areas sampled.

RESULTS

In round 1, 15.4% (95% CI 14.6% to 16.2%) of the 7494 collected packs were illicit. This estimate decreased to 13.6% (95% CI 12.7% to 14.5%) in round 2 (5852 collected packs) and to 6.3% (95% CI 5.7% to 6.9%) in round 3 (6258 collected packs). Illicit cigarettes originated primarily from the Republic of Korea and Ukraine, but some were manufactured in Mongolia. While the majority of illicit products are supplied by global companies (Korea Tobacco & Ginseng, Imperial Tobacco and Philip Morris Kazakhstan), one local company, Mongol Tobacco SO, is also implicated.

CONCLUSIONS

The share of illicit cigarettes declined between rounds 1 and 2 despite the import tax increase, and this trend continued in round 3 despite the excise tax increase.

Tobacco excise tax increase and illicit cigarette consumption: evidence from Vietnam

BACKGROUND

One of the most significant barriers to tax reform and tax rate increases in Vietnam is the threat of illicit trade promulgated by the tobacco industry. The industry argues that higher taxes will stimulate smuggling, thereby undermining tax policy objectives and impairing the domestic tobacco manufacturing. Unfortunately, there is a dearth of updated and independent studies to verify this claim and inform the tax reform in the country.

OBJECTIVES

The present paper attempts to generate new estimates of the illicit consumption and compare them to a prior study to ascertain the changes in the levels of the illicit trade after a tobacco excise tax increase.

METHODS

The study uses primary data collected from the Tobacco Consumption Survey in late 2017. It is a multistage cluster random household survey, covering a sample size of over 2700 smokers, and purposively designed to make its results comparable to prior estimates, which have been done before the tax increase. Particularly, we collect packs from selected smokers and perform careful inspection to identify the prevalence of illicit products. In addition to the consumption, we collect data on brand choices, cigarette prices, the types of stores that the smokers bought their cigarettes, as well as their socioeconomic characteristics. They allow us to determine the regional variation of the illicit trade, identify the main illicit cigarette brands, compare the prices of the licit and illicit cigarettes, and examine the main sources of the illicit cigarettes. Incomes of the licit and illicit cigarette smokers are also compared.

RESULTS

Contrary to the tobacco industry's predictions, our estimates demonstrate that the level of the illicit trade declined even after the increase of taxes imposed on tobacco products in Vietnam. The illicit cigarettes account for only about 13.72% of the total cigarette consumption in Vietnam in 2017, lower than the 20.7% estimate in 2012 done by the previous study. The illicit cigarettes are heavily concentrated in the southern provinces of Vietnam bordering Cambodia, and locally accessible to the smokers from grocery stores. Jet and Hero are the two most popular brands, representing over 80% of total illicit consumption in the country. Interestingly, the illicit cigarettes are on average more expensive than the illicit products in Vietnam, unlike many other countries where the former are typically cheaper than the latter. Consequently, as is to be expected, the illicit cigarette smokers tend to earn higher incomes than those smoking the licit products.

CONCLUSIONS

Raising the taxes levied on tobacco does not necessarily cause higher illicit consumption in Vietnam as widely stated by the tobacco industry. The Government of Vietnam should recognise the tobacco tax policy as the most effective and cost-effective tobacco control measure and establish a clear road map of progressive tobacco excise tax increases so that total tax levied on tobacco accounts for at least 75% of retail price as suggested by the WHO to reduce smoking prevalence in the country.

Consumption of legal and illegal cigarettes in the Gambia

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of cigarette smoking in the Gambia is relatively high, compared with most African countries. Little is known about the characteristics of the smokers and their habits, particularly with regard to tobacco tax avoidance and tax evasion.

METHODS

A nationally representative survey of 1211 smokers conducted in November/December 2017 employed a three-stage stratified sampling method and resulted in 1205 complete observations. The sociodemographic characteristics and smoking behaviours were analysed, including smoking intensity and brand preferences. Information on the physical features of cigarette packs that smokers had, observed by enumerators, and self-reported cigarette prices were used to estimate the proportion of illegal cigarettes on the market.

FINDINGS

As in many African countries, most smokers were male, between the ages of 25 and 54 years living primarily in urban areas. The three most popular cigarette brands are Piccadilly, Royal Business and Bond Street, which account for over three-quarters of all cigarette purchases. Price information suggests that about 7.3% of smokers purchased an illicit cigarette at their last purchase. When smoking intensity was taken into account, 8.6% of the total cigarette market was estimated to be illicit. Using an alternative method of evaluating pack's features revealed that only 0.9% of last purchases were illicit.

CONCLUSION

Despite recent excise tobacco tax increases, the use of illicit cigarettes in the Gambia is low and does not represent a significant obstacle to reaching both the public health and fiscal goals of higher tobacco taxes.

Smoke signals: monitoring illicit cigarettes and smoking behaviour in Colombia to support tobacco taxes

BACKGROUND

A street cross-sectional survey in 2016 with a representative sample of 1697 smokers in five Colombian cities was used to estimate the penetration of illicit cigarettes (PIC). The first wave was collected 3 months before a 100% increase in tobacco excise tax, and a second wave collected data 9 months after tax reform was effective. OBJECTIVE : Analyse changes after a cigarette tax increase in PIC, prices and smoking behaviour patterns for five Colombian cities (63% of the market). Smoking behaviour includes consumption intensity, presentation (stick/pack) and place of purchase. METHODS : Repeated street cross-sectional survey with smokers' self-report on smoking behaviour, last purchase information and direct observation of smokers' packs. Sampling frame: smokers, men and women, aged 12 years or older, all income levels, resident in the five cities with the highest number of smokers representing 63% of cigarette market share (Bogotá, Medellín, Cali, Cartagena and Cúcuta) with 1 733 316 smokers in 2013. Sample size was 1697 per wave, with confidence level 95%, margin of error 3.5% for Bogotá and Medellín and 5% for the other three cities. Smokers in second wave match first wave's location, sex and age group. Illicit cigarettes were identified based on brand, health warnings and price. RESULTS : After the tax hike, the average real price of a 20-stick pack increased by 28.2% and by 23.1% for loose cigarettes. Illicit cigarettes represented 3.4% of total cigarette consumption in 2016 and increased to 6.4% in 2017, lower than the current industry estimate of 18%. Consumption intensity decreased: the proportion of heavy smokers (more than 10 cigarettes per day) wentdown from 37% in 2016 to 26% in 2017.

CONCLUSION

After the tax increase, Colombia's PIC remained at low levels, and there is enough space for new tobacco tax hikes.

Illicit tobacco trade in Georgia: prevalence and perceptions

BACKGROUND

In lower-income and middle-income countries, limited research exists on illicit tobacco trade and its responsiveness to taxation. Tobacco taxes are critical in reducing tobacco consumption, thereby improving public health. However, the tobacco industry claims that tax increases will increase illicit tobacco trade. Therefore, research evidence on the size of the illicit cigarette market is needed in Georgia and other low-income and middle-income countries to inform tobacco tax policies.

METHODS

In 2017, a household survey using stratified multistage sampling was conducted in Georgia with 2997 smokers, to assess illicit tobacco consumption. Smokers were asked to show available cigarette packs to the surveyors. These were examined for tax stamps and health warnings which allowed for an assessment of illegal cigarette consumption in Georgia.

FINDINGS

The packs shown to surveyors suggest illicit cigarette trade is low (1.5%), although with regional differences, as illicit cigarette packs were present in 6% of the households in Zugdidi. Most illicit cigarettes were purchased at kiosks or informal outlets. This estimate might be conservative, as 28% of respondents did not show any packs to the surveyors.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite recent tobacco tax increases, illicit cigarette trade in Georgia seems to be negligible. The market is more vulnerable to illicit cigarette trade close to the border with Abkhazia (near Zugdidi). Tighter control or ban of tobacco sales at kiosks and informal outlets may reduce illicit cigarette trade. Further investigation is planned to better understand why a large proportion of survey participants said they had no pack available at home.

Measuring the illicit cigarette market in Mexico: a cross validation of two methodologies

Objective

To compare two methods to estimate the magnitude of the illicit cigarette trade in Mexico and to contrast these results with tobacco industry figures.

Methods

We used two survey methods: a smoker survey and a discarded pack survey. Data were collected in eight major cities in Mexico between November and December 2017. A total of 2396 face-to-face interviews to adult smokers were conducted and 8204 discarded packs were collected. To determine whether cigarette packs were intended for the Mexican market, we analysed pack features required by Mexican regulations and self-reported brands of the last purchase. Standard statistical tests to compare proportions were employed. Correlates of illicit cigarette use were also analysed.

Results

The share of cigarettes not intended for the Mexican market was 8.8% based on the analysis of discarded packs and 7.6% based on the survey of smokers, that is, the difference was small and only borderline significant overall (p=0.055). Also, both results were lower than those presented by the tobacco industry (16.6%). However, differences across methods were statistically significant for various cities.

Conclusion

Our results suggest that the optimal practice for the study of illicit trade is to cross validate estimates using both the smoker survey and the littered pack survey. If resources are limited, however, our findings indicate that either method could be used because both yield similar overall results, as longs as the potential biases are considered. Also, consistent with findings from other studies, our results suggest that the tobacco industry exaggerates the scope of illicit cigarette trade.

Illicit cigarette trade in South Africa: 2002-2017

BACKGROUND

Increasing cigarette excise taxes is widely recognised as the most effective measure to reduce the demand for cigarettes. The presence of illicit trade undermines the effectiveness of tax increases as both a public health and a fiscal measure, because it introduces cheaper alternatives to legal, full-priced cigarettes.

OBJECTIVE

To assess trends in the size of the illicit cigarette market in South Africa from 2002 to 2017 using gap analysis.

METHODS

Tax-paid cigarette sales are compared with consumption estimates from two nationally representative surveys: the All Media and Products Survey and the National Income Dynamics Study. We explore the size of the illicit cigarette market and its changes over the period 2002-2017.

RESULTS

Since 2009, illicit trade has increased sharply. We estimate that illicit trade is between 30% and 35% of the total market in 2017. The acceleration in the growth of the illicit market since 2015 corresponds with a turbulent time at the South African Revenue Service, when many of the enforcement functions were greatly reduced.

CONCLUSIONS

The current levels of illicit trade are extremely high and need to be addressed urgently by implementing effective control mechanisms such as a track and trace system to monitor the production, taxation, and sale of cigarettes.

Tobacco industry data on illicit tobacco trade: a systematic review of existing assessments

OBJECTIVE

To examine the quality of tobacco industry-funded data on the illicit tobacco trade (ITT) through a systematic review of existing assessments of industry-funded data on ITT.

DATA SOURCES

Papers and reports assessing tobacco industry-funded data on ITT were obtained via searches of 8 academic databases, Google searches and correspondence with ITT experts.

STUDY SELECTION

Inclusion criteria identified 35 English-language papers containing an original assessment of tobacco industry-funded data.

DATA EXTRACTION

Using a coding framework, information was extracted from the assessments regarding the quality of tobacco industry data. Documents were second-coded, achieving 94% intercoder reliability with all disagreements resolved.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Of the 35 assessments reviewed, 31 argued that tobacco industry estimates were higher than independent estimates. Criticisms identified problems with data collection (29), analytical methods (22) and presentation of results (21), which resulted in inflated ITT estimates or data on ITT that were presented in a misleading manner. Lack of transparency from data collection right through to presentation of findings was a key issue with insufficient information to allow replication of the findings frequently cited.

CONCLUSIONS

Tobacco industry data on ITT are not reliable. At present, the tobacco industry continues to fund and disseminate ITT research through initiatives such as PMI IMPACT. If industry data on ITT cannot meet the standards of accuracy and transparency set by high-quality research publications, a solution may be to tax tobacco companies and administer the resulting funds to experts, independent of the tobacco industry, who use previously developed reliable models for measuring ITT.

Tobacco industry's elaborate attempts to control a global track and trace system and fundamentally undermine the Illicit Trade Protocol

BACKGROUND

The Illicit Trade Protocol (ITP) requires a global track and trace (T&T) system to reduce tobacco smuggling. Given the tobacco industry's (TI) historical involvement in tobacco smuggling, it stipulates that T&T 'shall not be performed by or delegated to the tobacco industry'. This paper explores the rationale for & nature of the TI's effors to influence the ITP & its T&T system.

METHODS

Analysis of leaked TI documents and publicly available data; ,investigation of front groups, trademark and patent ownership.

FINDINGS

Growing & diverse sources of evidence indicate that the TI remains involved in tobacco smuggling and that TI cigarettes account for around two-thirds of the illicit cigarette market. The TI therefore has a vested interest in controlling the global T&T system aimed to curtail this behaviour. To this end, Philip Morris International (PMI) adapted its pack marker system, Codentify, to meet T&T requirements, licensed it for free to its three major competitors who then collectively promoted it to governments using front groups and third parties including companies claiming to be independent despite clear TI links. PMI also sought to suggest Codentify was independent by selling some parts of its intellectual property on Codentify while retaining others, leaving a complex web of shared interests. In Africa, British American Tobacco used payments to obtain data suggesting its smaller competitor companies were evading taxes and secure influence with tax authorities. Regulatory capture has been enhanced by a public relations effort involving TI funding for conferences, training, research, and international police and anti-corruption organisations. Collectively this has created public messaging and a powerful network of organisations supportive of the TI's misleading postion on illicit.

CONCLUSIONS

Governments should assume the TI seeks to control T&T systems in order to avoid scrutiny and minimise excise tax payments and that any T&T system based on Codentify, on intellectual property currently or previously owned by the TI, or being promoted or implemented by companies with TI links, is incompatible with the ITP and would not serve to reduce illicit trade.

Categorising characteristics of counterfeit Marlboro cigarettes: a systematic review of tobacco industry documents

BACKGROUND

There is scant research on methods used to identify counterfeit Marlboro cigarettes.

METHODS

Systematic analysis of internal tobacco industry documents characteristics of counterfeit Marlboro cigarettes.

RESULTS

In the industry documents we identified as relevant, there were 42 characteristics of counterfeit Marlboro cigarettes. Overall, physical characteristics (88.1%) were the most commonly identified features across all locations, with the pack blank, cardboard shell of the cigarette pack, as the dominant site (30.9%). Some of the physical characteristics included offset lithography printing, incorrect font and colour. Overall, light microscopy was identified as the main method of forensic analysis for detecting counterfeits.

CONCLUSION

Independent researchers employing litter pack and pack swap surveys are encouraged to use the characteristics identified in the study to gauge the prevalence of counterfeit Marlboro cigarettes and compare against industry estimates.

Innovations in counterfeiting tax stamps: a study of ultraviolet watermarks in a sample of discarded New York City packs

OBJECTIVE

Document the use of ultraviolet watermark in counterfeit joint New York City/New York State cigarette tax stamps to assess the scale at which distributors of illegal cigarettes adapt to measures protecting the integrity of the system of tobacco tax collection.

METHODS

In 2016, we collected 2357 empty discarded cigarette packs along a stratified random sample of block groups in New York City (n=114) and analysed 449 joint New York City/New York State tax stamps using long wave ultraviolet irradiation, light microscopy and taggant testers developed by the tax stamp manufacturer, Meyercord Revenue, to determine whether the tax stamps were counterfeit and how they differed from their genuine equivalent.

FINDINGS

23% (n=102) of the joint NYC/NYS tax stamps examined were counterfeit. Subsequent investigation revealed that almost two-thirds (n=58) of the counterfeit sample bore ultraviolet watermark that closely resembled genuine tax stamps in terms of fluorescence, watermark colour and wording. However, microscopic findings revealed that counterfeit tax stamps mismatched the genuine ultraviolet watermark in regards to font style and word orientation.

CONCLUSION

Counterfeiters are using ultraviolet watermarks which makes it difficult to differentiate counterfeit joint New York City/New York State tax stamps from their genuine equivalent when UV irradiation is used as the sole screening tool. Innovations in counterfeiting technology may be the result of fluorescent ink being available for purchase in the mainstream market. Independent monitoring of trends in the illicit market for tobacco products is advised to keep apace of counterfeiting methods.

Can't see the woods for the trees: exploring the range and connection of tobacco industry argumentation in the 2012 UK standardised packaging consultation

INTRODUCTION

Transnational tobacco company (TTC) submissions to the 2012 UK standardised packaging consultation are studied to examine TTC argumentation in the context of Better Regulation practices.

METHODS

A content analysis was conducted of Philip Morris International and British American Tobacco submissions to the 2012 UK consultation. Industry arguments concerning expected costs and (contested) benefits of the policy were categorised into themes and frames. The inter-relationship between frames through linked arguments was mapped to analyse central arguments using an argumentation network.

RESULTS

173 arguments were identified. Arguments fell into one of five frames: ineffectiveness, negative economic consequences, harm to public health, increased crime or legal ramifications. Arguments highlighted high costs to a wide range of groups, including government, general public and other businesses. Arguments also questioned the public health benefits of standardised packaging and highlighted the potential benefits to undeserving groups. An increase in illicit trade was the most central argument and linked to the greatest variety of arguments.

CONCLUSIONS

In policy-making systems characterised by mandatory impact assessments and public consultations, the wide range of cost (and contested benefits) based arguments highlights the risk of TTCs overloading policy actors and causing delays in policy adoption. Illicit trade related arguments are central to providing a rationale for these arguments, which include the claim that standardised packaging will increase health risks. The strategic importance of illicit trade arguments to industry argumentation in public consultations underlines the risks of relying on industry data relating to the scale of the illicit trade.