Historical increases in land-derived nutrient inputs may alleviate effects of a changing physical climate on the oceanic carbon cycle

The implications of climate change and other human perturbations on the oceanic carbon cycle are still associated with large uncertainties. Global-scale modelling studies are essential to investigate anthropogenic perturbations of oceanic carbon fluxes but, until now, they have not considered the impacts of temporal changes in riverine and atmospheric inputs of P and N on the marine net biological productivity (NPP) and air-sea CO₂ exchange (FCO₂ ). To address this, we perform a series of simulations using an enhanced version of the global ocean biogeochemistry model HAMOCC to isolate effects arising from (1) increasing atmospheric CO₂  levels, (2) a changing physical climate and (3) alterations in inputs of terrigenous P and N on marine carbon cycling over the 1905-2010 period. Our simulations reveal that our first-order approximation of increased terrigenous nutrient inputs causes an enhancement of 2.15 Pg C year^-1 of the global marine NPP, a relative increase of +5% over the simulation period. This increase completely compensates the simulated NPP decrease as a result of increased upper ocean stratification of -3% in relative terms. The coastal ocean undergoes a global relative increase of 14% in NPP arising largely from increased riverine inputs, with regional increases exceeding 100%, for instance on the shelves of the Bay of Bengal. The imprint of enhanced terrigenous nutrient inputs is also simulated further offshore, inducing a 1.75 Pg C year^-1 (+4%) enhancement of the NPP in the open ocean. This finding implies that the perturbation of carbon fluxes through coastal eutrophication may extend further offshore than that was previously assumed. While increased nutrient inputs are the largest driver of change for the CO₂ uptake at the regional scale and enhance the global coastal ocean CO₂ uptake by 0.02 Pg C year^-1 , they only marginally affect the FCO₂ of the open ocean over our study's timeline.

Making the most of the old age: Autumn breeding as an extra reproductive investment in older seabirds

The extrinsic and intrinsic factors affecting differing reproductive strategies among populations are central to understanding population and evolutionary ecology. To evaluate whether individual reproductive strategies responded to annual patterns in marine productivity and age-related processes in a seabird we used a long term (2003-2013), a continuous dataset on nest occupancy and attendance at the colony by little penguins (Eudyptula minor) at Phillip Island (Victoria, Australia). We found that concurrent with a secondary annual peak of marine productivity, a secondary peak in colony attendance and nest occupancy was observed in Autumn (out of the regular breeding season in spring/summer) with individuals showing mating-like behavior. Individuals attending this autumn peak averaged 2.5 years older than those individuals that exclusively bred during spring/summer. Rather than being a naïve response by younger and inexperienced birds misreading environmental cues, our data indicate that the autumn peak attendance is an earlier attempt to breed by older and more experienced penguins. Therefore, we provide strong support for the fundamental prediction of the life-history theory of increasing investment in reproduction with age to maximize lifetime fitness as future survival prospects diminish and experience increases.

National contributions to global ecosystem values

Current conservation templates prioritize biogeographic regions with high intensity ecosystem values, such as exceptional species richness or threat. Intensity-based targets are an important consideration in global efforts, but they do not capture all available opportunities to conserve ecosystem values, including those that accrue in low intensity over large areas. We assess six globally-significant ecosystem values-intact wilderness, freshwater availability, productive marine environments, breeding habitat for migratory wildlife, soil carbon storage, and latitudinal potential for range shift in the face of climate change-to highlight opportunities for high-impact broadly-distributed contributions to global conservation. Nations can serve as a cohesive block of policy that can profoundly influence conservation outcomes. Contributions to global ecosystem values that exceed what is predicted by a nation's area alone, can give rise to countries with the capacity to act as 'conservation superpowers', such as Canada and Russia. For these conservation superpowers, a relatively small number of national policies can have environmental repercussions for the rest of the world.

Global Marine N2 Fixation Estimates: From Observations to Models

Fixed nitrogen (N) limits productivity across much of the low-latitude ocean. The magnitude of its inventory results from the balance of N input and N loss, the latter largely occurring in regionally well-defined low-oxygen waters and sediments (denitrification and anammox). The rate and distribution of N input by biotic N₂ fixation, the dominant N source, is not well known. Here we compile N₂ fixation estimates from experimental measurements, tracer-based geochemical and modeling approaches, and discuss their limitations and uncertainties. The lack of adequate experimental data coverage and the insufficient understanding of the controls of marine N₂ fixation result in high uncertainties, which make the assessment of the current N-balance a challenge. We suggest that a more comprehensive understanding of the environmental and ecological interaction of marine N₂ fixers is required to advance the field toward robust N₂ fixation rates estimates and predictions.

Tracking the rise of eukaryotes to ecological dominance with zinc isotopes

The biogeochemical cycling of zinc (Zn) is intimately coupled with organic carbon in the ocean. Based on an extensive new sedimentary Zn isotope record across Earth's history, we provide evidence for a fundamental shift in the marine Zn cycle ~800 million years ago. We discuss a wide range of potential drivers for this transition and propose that, within available constraints, a restructuring of marine ecosystems is the most parsimonious explanation for this shift. Using a global isotope mass balance approach, we show that a change in the organic Zn/C ratio is required to account for observed Zn isotope trends through time. Given the higher affinity of eukaryotes for Zn relative to prokaryotes, we suggest that a shift toward a more eukaryote-rich ecosystem could have provided a means of more efficiently sequestering organic-derived Zn. Despite the much earlier appearance of eukaryotes in the microfossil record (~1700 to 1600 million years ago), our data suggest a delayed rise to ecological prominence during the Neoproterozoic, consistent with the currently accepted organic biomarker records.

A novel spatio-temporal scale based on ocean currents unravels environmental drivers of reproductive timing in a marine predator

Life-history strategies have evolved in response to predictable patterns of environmental features. In practice, linking life-history strategies and changes in environmental conditions requires comparable space-time scales between both processes, a difficult match in most marine system studies. We propose a novel spatio-temporal and dynamic scale to explore marine productivity patterns probably driving reproductive timing in the inshore little penguin (Eudyptula minor), based on monthly data on ocean circulation in the Southern Ocean, Australia. In contrast to what occurred when considering any other fixed scales, little penguin's highly variable laying date always occurred within the annual peak of ocean productivity that emerged from our newly defined dynamic scale. Additionally, local sea surface temperature seems to have triggered the onset of reproduction, acting as an environmental cue informing on marine productivity patterns at our dynamic scale. Chlorophyll-a patterns extracted from this scale revealed that environment factors in marine ecosystems affecting breeding decisions are related to a much wider region than foraging areas that are commonly used in current studies investigating the link between animals' life history and their environment. We suggest that marine productivity patterns may be more predictable than previously thought when environmental and biological data are examined at appropriate scales.