Disease and weather induce rapid shifts in a rangeland ecosystem mediated by a keystone species (Cynomys ludovicianus)

Habitat loss and changing climate have direct impacts on native species but can also interact with disease pathogens to influence wildlife communities. In the North American Great Plains, black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) are a keystone species that create important grassland habitat for numerous species and serve as prey for predators, but lethal control driven by agricultural conflict has severely reduced their abundance. Novel disease dynamics caused by epizootic plague (Yersinia pestis) within prairie dog colonies have further reduced prairie dog abundances, in turn destabilizing associated wildlife communities. We capitalized on a natural experiment, collecting data on prairie dog distributions, vegetation structure, avian abundance, and mesocarnivore and ungulate occupancy before (2015-2017) and after (2018-2019) a plague event in northeastern Wyoming, USA. Plague decimated black-tailed prairie dog populations in what was then the largest extant colony complex, reducing colony cover in the focal area from more than 10,000 ha to less than 50 ha. We documented dramatic declines in mesocarnivore occupancy and raptor abundance post-plague, with probability of occupancy or abundance approaching zero in species that rely on prairie dogs for a high proportion of their diet (e.g., ferruginous hawk [Buteo regalis], American badger [Taxidea taxus], and swift fox [Vulpes velox]). Following the plague outbreak, abnormally high precipitation in 2018 hastened vegetation recovery from prairie dog disturbance on colonies in which constant herbivory had formerly maintained shortgrass structure necessary for certain colony-associates. As a result, we observed large shifts in avian communities on former prairie dog colonies, including near-disappearance of mountain plovers (Charadrius montanus) and increases in mid-grass associated songbirds (e.g., lark bunting [Calamospiza melanocorys]). Our research highlights how precipitation can interact with disease-induced loss of a keystone species to induce drastic and rapid shifts in wildlife communities. Although grassland taxa have co-evolved with high spatiotemporal variation, fragmentation of the remaining North American rangelands paired with higher-than-historical variability in climate and disease dynamics are likely to destabilize these systems in the future.

Integrated survival analysis using an event-time approach in a Bayesian framework

Event-time or continuous-time statistical approaches have been applied throughout the biostatistical literature and have led to numerous scientific advances. However, these techniques have traditionally relied on knowing failure times. This has limited application of these analyses, particularly, within the ecological field where fates of marked animals may be unknown. To address these limitations, we developed an integrated approach within a Bayesian framework to estimate hazard rates in the face of unknown fates. We combine failure/survival times from individuals whose fates are known and times of which are interval-censored with information from those whose fates are unknown, and model the process of detecting animals with unknown fates. This provides the foundation for our integrated model and permits necessary parameter estimation. We provide the Bayesian model, its derivation, and use simulation techniques to investigate the properties and performance of our approach under several scenarios. Lastly, we apply our estimation technique using a piece-wise constant hazard function to investigate the effects of year, age, chick size and sex, sex of the tending adult, and nesting habitat on mortality hazard rates of the endangered mountain plover (Charadrius montanus) chicks. Traditional models were inappropriate for this analysis because fates of some individual chicks were unknown due to failed radio transmitters. Simulations revealed biases of posterior mean estimates were minimal (≤ 4.95%), and posterior distributions behaved as expected with RMSE of the estimates decreasing as sample sizes, detection probability, and survival increased. We determined mortality hazard rates for plover chicks were highest at <5 days old and were lower for chicks with larger birth weights and/or whose nest was within agricultural habitats. Based on its performance, our approach greatly expands the range of problems for which event-time analyses can be used by eliminating the need for having completely known fate data.