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Fonseca MG, Anderson LO, Arai E, Shimabukuro YE, Xaud HAM, Xaud MR, Madani N, Wagner FH, Aragão LEOC. Climatic and anthropogenic drivers of northern Amazon fires during the 2015-2016 El Niño event. Ecol Appl 2017; 27:2514-2527. [PMID: 28922585 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1628] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2016] [Revised: 07/18/2017] [Accepted: 07/28/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
The strong El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event that occurred in 2015-2016 caused extreme drought in the northern Brazilian Amazon, especially in the state of Roraima, increasing fire occurrence. Here we map the extent of precipitation and fire anomalies and quantify the effects of climatic and anthropogenic drivers on fire occurrence during the 2015-2016 dry season (from December 2015 to March 2016) in the state of Roraima. To achieve these objectives we first estimated the spatial pattern of precipitation anomalies, based on long-term data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission), and the fire anomaly, based on MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) active fire detections during the referred period. Then, we integrated climatic and anthropogenic drivers in a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to quantify fire probability, assessing (1) the model accuracy during the 2015-2016 and the 2016-2017 dry seasons; (2) the relative importance of each predictor variable on the model predictive performance; and (3) the response curves, showing how each environmental variable affects the fire probability. Approximately 59% (132,900 km2 ) of the study area was exposed to precipitation anomalies ≤-1 standard deviation (SD) in January and ~48% (~106,800 km2 ) in March. About 38% (86,200 km2 ) of the study area experienced fire anomalies ≥1 SD in at least one month between December 2015 and March 2016. The distance to roads and the direct ENSO effect on fire occurrence were the two most influential variables on model predictive performance. Despite the improvement of governmental actions of fire prevention and firefighting in Roraima since the last intense ENSO event (1997-1998), we show that fire still gets out of control in the state during extreme drought events. Our results indicate that if no prevention actions are undertaken, future road network expansion and a climate-induced increase in water stress will amplify fire occurrence in the northern Amazon, even in its humid dense forests. As an additional outcome of our analysis, we conclude that the model and the data we used may help to guide on-the-ground fire-prevention actions and firefighting planning and therefore minimize fire-related ecosystems degradation, economic losses and carbon emissions in Roraima.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marisa G Fonseca
- Tropical Ecosystems and Environmental Sciences Laboratory (TREES), National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Av. dos Astronautas, 1758, 12227-010, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
| | - Liana O Anderson
- National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), Parque Tecnológico de São José dos Campos, Estrada Dr. Altino Bondensan 500, 12247-016, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
- Environmental Change Institute, ECI, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, United Kingdom
| | - Egidio Arai
- Tropical Ecosystems and Environmental Sciences Laboratory (TREES), National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Av. dos Astronautas, 1758, 12227-010, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
| | - Yosio E Shimabukuro
- Tropical Ecosystems and Environmental Sciences Laboratory (TREES), National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Av. dos Astronautas, 1758, 12227-010, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
| | - Haron A M Xaud
- Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation, Embrapa Roraima, PO Box 133, 69.301-970, Boa Vista, RR, Brazil
| | - Maristela R Xaud
- Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation, Embrapa Roraima, PO Box 133, 69.301-970, Boa Vista, RR, Brazil
| | - Nima Madani
- Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, College of Forestry & Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, 59812, USA
| | - Fabien H Wagner
- Tropical Ecosystems and Environmental Sciences Laboratory (TREES), National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Av. dos Astronautas, 1758, 12227-010, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
| | - Luiz E O C Aragão
- Tropical Ecosystems and Environmental Sciences Laboratory (TREES), National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Av. dos Astronautas, 1758, 12227-010, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4RJ, United Kingdom
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Bjorndal KA, Bolten AB, Chaloupka M, Saba VS, Bellini C, Marcovaldi MAG, Santos AJB, Bortolon LFW, Meylan AB, Meylan PA, Gray J, Hardy R, Brost B, Bresette M, Gorham JC, Connett S, Crouchley BVS, Dawson M, Hayes D, Diez CE, van Dam RP, Willis S, Nava M, Hart KM, Cherkiss MS, Crowder AG, Pollock C, Hillis-Starr Z, Muñoz Tenería FA, Herrera-Pavón R, Labrada-Martagón V, Lorences A, Negrete-Philippe A, Lamont MM, Foley AM, Bailey R, Carthy RR, Scarpino R, McMichael E, Provancha JA, Brooks A, Jardim A, López-Mendilaharsu M, González-Paredes D, Estrades A, Fallabrino A, Martínez-Souza G, Vélez-Rubio GM, Boulon RH, Collazo JA, Wershoven R, Guzmán Hernández V, Stringell TB, Sanghera A, Richardson PB, Broderick AC, Phillips Q, Calosso M, Claydon JAB, Metz TL, Gordon AL, Landry AM, Shaver DJ, Blumenthal J, Collyer L, Godley BJ, McGowan A, Witt MJ, Campbell CL, Lagueux CJ, Bethel TL, Kenyon L. Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic. Glob Chang Biol 2017; 23:4556-4568. [PMID: 28378354 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13712] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/13/2017] [Revised: 03/20/2017] [Accepted: 03/21/2017] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
Somatic growth is an integrated, individual-based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio-indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long-lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega-consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles-hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta-exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-the strongest on record-combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = -.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = .74). Granger-causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study demonstrates the importance of region-wide collaborations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karen A Bjorndal
- Archie Carr Center for Sea Turtle Research and Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Alan B Bolten
- Archie Carr Center for Sea Turtle Research and Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Milani Chaloupka
- Ecological Modelling Services Pty Ltd, University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD, Australia
| | - Vincent S Saba
- NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Cláudio Bellini
- Centro TAMAR-ICMBio, CLBI - Parnamirim, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil
| | | | | | | | - Anne B Meylan
- Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, St. Petersburg, FL, USA
- Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Peter A Meylan
- Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA
- Natural Sciences Collegium, Eckerd College, St. Petersburg, FL, USA
| | | | - Robert Hardy
- Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, St. Petersburg, FL, USA
| | - Beth Brost
- Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, St. Petersburg, FL, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Mike Dawson
- Geronimo Program, St. George's School, Newport, RI, USA
| | - Deborah Hayes
- Geronimo Program, St. George's School, Newport, RI, USA
| | | | | | - Sue Willis
- Sea Turtle Conservation Bonaire, Kralendijk, Bonaire, Dutch Caribbean
| | - Mabel Nava
- Sea Turtle Conservation Bonaire, Kralendijk, Bonaire, Dutch Caribbean
| | - Kristen M Hart
- U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, Davie, FL, USA
| | - Michael S Cherkiss
- U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, Davie, FL, USA
| | - Andrew G Crowder
- Cherokee Nation Technologies, NSU Center for Collaborative Research, Davie, FL, USA
| | - Clayton Pollock
- National Park Service, Christiansted, St. Croix, Virgin Islands
| | | | - Fernando A Muñoz Tenería
- Facultad de Agronomía y Veterinaria, Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí, San Luis Potosí, México
| | | | | | - Armando Lorences
- Dirección de Ecología Municipio de Solidaridad, Quintana Roo, México
| | | | - Margaret M Lamont
- US Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Allen M Foley
- Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, Jacksonville Field Laboratory, Jacksonville, FL, USA
| | - Rhonda Bailey
- Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, St. Petersburg, FL, USA
| | - Raymond R Carthy
- US Geological Survey, Florida Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Russell Scarpino
- Florida Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Erin McMichael
- Florida Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Jane A Provancha
- Environmental Services, Integrated Mission Support Services, Kennedy Space Center, Florida, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Jaime A Collazo
- U.S. Geological Survey, North Carolina Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Applied Ecology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
| | | | | | - Thomas B Stringell
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, UK
| | | | | | - Annette C Broderick
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, UK
| | - Quinton Phillips
- Department of Environment and Coastal Resources, National Environment Centre, Providenciales, Turks and Caicos Islands
| | - Marta Calosso
- The School for Field Studies, Center for Marine Resource Studies, South Caicos, Turks and Caicos Islands
| | - John A B Claydon
- Department of Environment and Coastal Resources, National Environment Centre, Providenciales, Turks and Caicos Islands
| | - Tasha L Metz
- Texas A&M University at Galveston, Galveston, TX, USA
| | - Amanda L Gordon
- Environmental Institute of Houston, University of Houston - Clear Lake, Houston, TX, USA
| | | | | | | | - Lucy Collyer
- Department of Environment, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands
| | - Brendan J Godley
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, UK
| | - Andrew McGowan
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, UK
| | - Matthew J Witt
- Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall, UK
| | - Cathi L Campbell
- Archie Carr Center for Sea Turtle Research and Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Cynthia J Lagueux
- Archie Carr Center for Sea Turtle Research and Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | | | - Lory Kenyon
- Elbow Reef Lighthouse Society, Abaco, The Bahamas
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