Deforestation falls but rise of wildfires continues degrading Brazilian Amazon forests

In 2023, Brazil achieved positive environmental strides in the Amazon, with a 22% reduction in deforestation rates and a 16% decline in total fire counts compared with 2022, attributed to renewed environmental policy implementation. However, despite progress, deforestation remains above the target, and forest wildfires in old‐growth Amazonian forests surged by 152% in 2023 versus 2022, threatening biodiversity and carbon stocks. The rise in fires poses challenges for traditional farmers, impacts urban areas' air quality, and necessitates urgent measures like enhanced firefighting capabilities and long‐term strategies for fire‐free production chains to protect the Amazonian standing forests—a global socio‐environmental asset.

Brazilian Amazon indigenous territories under deforestation pressure

Studies showed that Brazilian Amazon indigenous territories (ITs) are efficient models for preserving forests by reducing deforestation, fires, and related carbon emissions. Considering the importance of ITs for conserving socio-environmental and cultural diversity and the recent climb in the Brazilian Amazon deforestation, we used official remote sensing datasets to analyze deforestation inside and outside indigenous territories within Brazil's Amazon biome during the 2013-2021 period. Deforestation has increased by 129% inside ITs since 2013, followed by an increase in illegal mining areas. In 2019-2021, deforestation was 195% higher and 30% farther from the borders towards the interior of indigenous territories than in previous years (2013-2018). Furthermore, about 59% of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions within ITs in 2013-2021 (96 million tons) occurred in the last three years of analyzed years, revealing the magnitude of increasing deforestation to climate impacts. Therefore, curbing deforestation in indigenous territories must be a priority for the Brazilian government to secure these peoples' land rights, ensure the forests' protection and regulate the global climate.

The drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation

Approximately 2.5 × 10⁶ square kilometers of the Amazon forest are currently degraded by fire, edge effects, timber extraction, and/or extreme drought, representing 38% of all remaining forests in the region. Carbon emissions from this degradation total up to 0.2 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year^-1), which is equivalent to, if not greater than, the emissions from Amazon deforestation (0.06 to 0.21 Pg C year^-1). Amazon forest degradation can reduce dry-season evapotranspiration by up to 34% and cause as much biodiversity loss as deforestation in human-modified landscapes, generating uneven socioeconomic burdens, mainly to forest dwellers. Projections indicate that degradation will remain a dominant source of carbon emissions independent of deforestation rates. Policies to tackle degradation should be integrated with efforts to curb deforestation and complemented with innovative measures addressing the disturbances that degrade the Amazon forest.

Large carbon sink potential of secondary forests in the Brazilian Amazon to mitigate climate change

Tropical secondary forests sequester carbon up to 20 times faster than old-growth forests. This rate does not capture spatial regrowth patterns due to environmental and disturbance drivers. Here we quantify the influence of such drivers on the rate and spatial patterns of regrowth in the Brazilian Amazon using satellite data. Carbon sequestration rates of young secondary forests (<20 years) in the west are ~60% higher (3.0 ± 1.0 Mg C ha^-1 yr^-1) compared to those in the east (1.3 ± 0.3 Mg C ha^-1 yr^-1). Disturbances reduce regrowth rates by 8-55%. The 2017 secondary forest carbon stock, of 294 Tg C, could be 8% higher by avoiding fires and repeated deforestation. Maintaining the 2017 secondary forest area has the potential to accumulate ~19.0 Tg C yr^-1 until 2030, contributing ~5.5% to Brazil's 2030 net emissions reduction target. Implementing legal mechanisms to protect and expand secondary forests whilst supporting old-growth conservation is, therefore, key to realising their potential as a nature-based climate solution.

Improving the spatial-temporal analysis of Amazonian fires

There is a growing interest in Amazonian fires, accompanied by a substantial increase in research in the subject. Here, we list five common misunderstandings about Amazonian climate, vegetation, fires and the deforestation process to help to support future research.

Persistent collapse of biomass in Amazonian forest edges following deforestation leads to unaccounted carbon losses

Deforestation is the primary driver of carbon losses in tropical forests, but it does not operate alone. Forest fragmentation, a resulting feature of the deforestation process, promotes indirect carbon losses induced by edge effect. This process is not implicitly considered by policies for reducing carbon emissions in the tropics. Here, we used a remote sensing approach to estimate carbon losses driven by edge effect in Amazonia over the 2001 to 2015 period. We found that carbon losses associated with edge effect (947 Tg C) corresponded to one-third of losses from deforestation (2592 Tg C). Despite a notable negative trend of 7 Tg C year^-1 in carbon losses from deforestation, the carbon losses from edge effect remained unchanged, with an average of 63 ± 8 Tg C year^-1 Carbon losses caused by edge effect is thus an additional unquantified flux that can counteract carbon emissions avoided by reducing deforestation, compromising the Paris Agreement's bold targets.

Benchmark maps of 33 years of secondary forest age for Brazil

The restoration and reforestation of 12 million hectares of forests by 2030 are amongst the leading mitigation strategies for reducing carbon emissions within the Brazilian Nationally Determined Contribution targets assumed under the Paris Agreement. Understanding the dynamics of forest cover, which steeply decreased between 1985 and 2018 throughout Brazil, is essential for estimating the global carbon balance and quantifying the provision of ecosystem services. To know the long-term increment, extent, and age of secondary forests is crucial; however, these variables are yet poorly quantified. Here we developed a 30-m spatial resolution dataset of the annual increment, extent, and age of secondary forests for Brazil over the 1986-2018 period. Land-use and land-cover maps from MapBiomas Project (Collection 4.1) were used as input data for our algorithm, implemented in the Google Earth Engine platform. This dataset provides critical spatially explicit information for supporting carbon emissions reduction, biodiversity, and restoration policies, enabling environmental science applications, territorial planning, and subsidizing environmental law enforcement.

Drought-induced Amazonian wildfires instigate a decadal-scale disruption of forest carbon dynamics

Drought-induced wildfires have increased in frequency and extent over the tropics. Yet, the long-term (greater than 10 years) responses of Amazonian lowland forests to fire disturbance are poorly known. To understand post-fire forest biomass dynamics, and to assess the time required for fire-affected forests to recover to pre-disturbance levels, we combined 16 single with 182 multiple forest census into a unique large-scale and long-term dataset across the Brazilian Amazonia. We quantified biomass, mortality and wood productivity of burned plots along a chronosequence of up to 31 years post-fire and compared to surrounding unburned plots measured simultaneously. Stem mortality and growth were assessed among functional groups. At the plot level, we found that fire-affected forests have biomass levels 24.8 ± 6.9% below the biomass value of unburned control plots after 31 years. This lower biomass state results from the elevated levels of biomass loss through mortality, which is not sufficiently compensated for by wood productivity (incremental growth + recruitment). At the stem level, we found major changes in mortality and growth rates up to 11 years post-fire. The post-fire stem mortality rates exceeded unburned control plots by 680% (i.e. greater than 40 cm diameter at breast height (DBH); 5-8 years since last fire) and 315% (i.e. greater than 0.7 g cm^-3 wood density; 0.75-4 years since last fire). Our findings indicate that wildfires in humid tropical forests can significantly reduce forest biomass for decades by enhancing mortality rates of all trees, including large and high wood density trees, which store the largest amount of biomass in old-growth forests. This assessment of stem dynamics, therefore, demonstrates that wildfires slow down or stall the post-fire recovery of Amazonian forests.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

Factor VIII Procoagulant Protein Interacts with Phospholipid Vesicles Via its 80 kDa Light Chain

In a previous report, we detailed the fractionation of polyclonal human anti-Factor VIII :C into a component directed exclusively against the phospholipid-binding site on Factor VIII (PL-site antibody) and another directed at other sites (non-PL-site antibody). The location on the F.VIII molecule of its PL-binding site has now been studied by two different methods using this fractionated 125I-labelled anti-F.VIII: C Fab’.

The first method was modified from that of Weinstein et al. (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 1981; 78: 5137-41), involving electrophoresis of F.VIII peptide-125I-Fab‘ A/F.VIII immunocomplexes in SDS-polyacrylamide gels. PL-site antibody reacted with F.VIII peptides of apparent Mr approximately 80 kDa and sometimes 160 kDa in plasma and concentrate, but not with larger peptides. Non-PL-site antibody, however, reacted with a range of peptides of apparent Mr 90 kDa to 280 kDa. In addition, when purified F.VIII containing heavy and light chains (HC + LC), and isolated LC peptides were analysed, PL-site antibody bound to LC peptides whereas non-PL-site antibody did not.

The second method used the antibody pools in immunoradiometric assays (IRMA’s) of purified F.VIII peptides. Both labels measured similar amounts of F.VIII: Ag in a sample of purified F.VIII containing both HC and LC; on assaying an HC preparation, however, PL-site label measured only 2% of F.VIII: Ag found by non-PL-site label, indicating that PL-binding sites are absent in HC preparations.

These results indicate that F.VIII binds to PL via its 80 kDa light chain.

Climatic and anthropogenic drivers of northern Amazon fires during the 2015-2016 El Niño event

The strong El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event that occurred in 2015-2016 caused extreme drought in the northern Brazilian Amazon, especially in the state of Roraima, increasing fire occurrence. Here we map the extent of precipitation and fire anomalies and quantify the effects of climatic and anthropogenic drivers on fire occurrence during the 2015-2016 dry season (from December 2015 to March 2016) in the state of Roraima. To achieve these objectives we first estimated the spatial pattern of precipitation anomalies, based on long-term data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission), and the fire anomaly, based on MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) active fire detections during the referred period. Then, we integrated climatic and anthropogenic drivers in a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to quantify fire probability, assessing (1) the model accuracy during the 2015-2016 and the 2016-2017 dry seasons; (2) the relative importance of each predictor variable on the model predictive performance; and (3) the response curves, showing how each environmental variable affects the fire probability. Approximately 59% (132,900 km² ) of the study area was exposed to precipitation anomalies ≤-1 standard deviation (SD) in January and ~48% (~106,800 km² ) in March. About 38% (86,200 km² ) of the study area experienced fire anomalies ≥1 SD in at least one month between December 2015 and March 2016. The distance to roads and the direct ENSO effect on fire occurrence were the two most influential variables on model predictive performance. Despite the improvement of governmental actions of fire prevention and firefighting in Roraima since the last intense ENSO event (1997-1998), we show that fire still gets out of control in the state during extreme drought events. Our results indicate that if no prevention actions are undertaken, future road network expansion and a climate-induced increase in water stress will amplify fire occurrence in the northern Amazon, even in its humid dense forests. As an additional outcome of our analysis, we conclude that the model and the data we used may help to guide on-the-ground fire-prevention actions and firefighting planning and therefore minimize fire-related ecosystems degradation, economic losses and carbon emissions in Roraima.

Increased Wildfire Risk Driven by Climate and Development Interactions in the Bolivian Chiquitania, Southern Amazonia

Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectories interacting with changing climatic conditions. Possible future risk scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy modelling with presence-only data, combining land cover, anthropogenic and climatic variables. We found that important determinants of fire risk in the region are distance to roads, recent deforestation and density of human settlements. Severely dry conditions alone increased the area of high fire risk by 69%, affecting all categories of land use and land cover. Interactions between extreme dry conditions and rapid frontier expansion further increased fire risk, resulting in potential biomass loss of 2.44±0.8 Tg in high risk area, about 1.8 times higher than the estimates for the 2010 drought. These interactions showed particularly high fire risk in land used for ‘extensive cattle ranching’, ‘agro-silvopastoral use’ and ‘intensive cattle ranching and agriculture’. These findings have serious implications for subsistence activities and the economy in the Chiquitania, which greatly depend on the forestry, agriculture and livestock sectors. Results are particularly concerning if considering the current development policies promoting frontier expansion. Departmental protected areas inhibited wildfires when strategically established in areas of high risk, even under drought conditions. However, further research is needed to assess their effectiveness accounting for more specific contextual factors. This novel and simple modelling approach can inform fire and land management decisions in the Chiquitania and other tropical forest landscapes to better anticipate and manage large wildfires in the future.

Toward an integrated monitoring framework to assess the effects of tropical forest degradation and recovery on carbon stocks and biodiversity

Tropical forests harbor a significant portion of global biodiversity and are a critical component of the climate system. Reducing deforestation and forest degradation contributes to global climate-change mitigation efforts, yet emissions and removals from forest dynamics are still poorly quantified. We reviewed the main challenges to estimate changes in carbon stocks and biodiversity due to degradation and recovery of tropical forests, focusing on three main areas: (1) the combination of field surveys and remote sensing; (2) evaluation of biodiversity and carbon values under a unified strategy; and (3) research efforts needed to understand and quantify forest degradation and recovery. The improvement of models and estimates of changes of forest carbon can foster process-oriented monitoring of forest dynamics, including different variables and using spatially explicit algorithms that account for regional and local differences, such as variation in climate, soil, nutrient content, topography, biodiversity, disturbance history, recovery pathways, and socioeconomic factors. Generating the data for these models requires affordable large-scale remote-sensing tools associated with a robust network of field plots that can generate spatially explicit information on a range of variables through time. By combining ecosystem models, multiscale remote sensing, and networks of field plots, we will be able to evaluate forest degradation and recovery and their interactions with biodiversity and carbon cycling. Improving monitoring strategies will allow a better understanding of the role of forest dynamics in climate-change mitigation, adaptation, and carbon cycle feedbacks, thereby reducing uncertainties in models of the key processes in the carbon cycle, including their impacts on biodiversity, which are fundamental to support forest governance policies, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation.

Environmental change and the carbon balance of Amazonian forests

Extreme climatic events and land-use change are known to influence strongly the current carbon cycle of Amazonia, and have the potential to cause significant global climate impacts. This review intends to evaluate the effects of both climate and anthropogenic perturbations on the carbon balance of the Brazilian Amazon and to understand how they interact with each other. By analysing the outputs of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 4 (AR4) model ensemble, we demonstrate that Amazonian temperatures and water stress are both likely to increase over the 21st Century. Curbing deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon by 62% in 2010 relative to the 1990s mean decreased the Brazilian Amazon's deforestation contribution to global land use carbon emissions from 17% in the 1990s and early 2000s to 9% by 2010. Carbon sources in Amazonia are likely to be dominated by climatic impacts allied with forest fires (48.3% relative contribution) during extreme droughts. The current net carbon sink (net biome productivity, NBP) of +0.16 (ranging from +0.11 to +0.21) Pg C year(-1) in the Brazilian Amazon, equivalent to 13.3% of global carbon emissions from land-use change for 2008, can be negated or reversed during drought years [NBP = -0.06 (-0.31 to +0.01) Pg C year(-1) ]. Therefore, reducing forest fires, in addition to reducing deforestation, would be an important measure for minimizing future emissions. Conversely, doubling the current area of secondary forests and avoiding additional removal of primary forests would help the Amazonian gross forest sink to offset approximately 42% of global land-use change emissions. We conclude that a few strategic environmental policy measures are likely to strengthen the Amazonian net carbon sink with global implications. Moreover, these actions could increase the resilience of the net carbon sink to future increases in drought frequency.

Remote sensing detection of droughts in Amazonian forest canopies

*Remote sensing data are a key tool to assess large forested areas, where limitations such as accessibility and lack of field measurements are prevalent. Here, we have analysed datasets from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite measurements and field data to assess the impacts of the 2005 drought in Amazonia. *We combined vegetation indices (VI) and climatological variables to evaluate the spatiotemporal patterns associated with the 2005 drought, and explore the relationships between remotely-sensed indices and forest inventory data on tree mortality. *There were differences in results based on c4 and c5 MODIS products. C5 VI showed no spatial relationship with rainfall or aerosol optical depth; however, distinct regions responded significantly to the increased radiation in 2005. The increase in the Enhanced VI (EVI) during 2005 showed a significant positive relationship (P < 0.07) with the increase of tree mortality. By contrast, the normalized difference water index (NDWI) exhibited a significant negative relationship (P < 0.09) with tree mortality. *Previous studies have suggested that the increase in EVI during the 2005 drought was associated with a positive response of forest photosynthesis to changes in the radiation income. We discuss the evidence that this increase could be related to structural changes in the canopy.

Regional ecosystem structure and function: ecological insights from remote sensing of tropical forests

Ecological studies in tropical forests have long been plagued by difficulties associated with sampling the crowns of large canopy trees and large inaccessible regions, such as the Amazon basin. Recent advances in remote sensing have overcome some of these obstacles, enabling progress towards tackling difficult ecological problems. Breakthroughs have helped transform the dialog between ecology and remote sensing, generating new regional perspectives on key environmental gradients and species assemblages with ecologically relevant measures such as canopy nutrient and moisture content, crown area, leaf-level drought responses, woody tissue and surface litter abundance, phenological patterns, and land-cover transitions. Issues that we address here include forest response to altered precipitation regimes, regional disturbance and land-use patterns, invasive species and landscape carbon balance.

Cropland expansion changes deforestation dynamics in the southern Brazilian Amazon

Intensive mechanized agriculture in the Brazilian Amazon grew by >3.6 million hectares (ha) during 2001-2004. Whether this cropland expansion resulted from intensified use of land previously cleared for cattle ranching or new deforestation has not been quantified and has major implications for future deforestation dynamics, carbon fluxes, forest fragmentation, and other ecosystem services. We combine deforestation maps, field surveys, and satellite-based information on vegetation phenology to characterize the fate of large (>25-ha) clearings as cropland, cattle pasture, or regrowing forest in the years after initial clearing in Mato Grosso, the Brazilian state with the highest deforestation rate and soybean production since 2001. Statewide, direct conversion of forest to cropland totaled >540,000 ha during 2001-2004, peaking at 23% of 2003 annual deforestation. Cropland deforestation averaged twice the size of clearings for pasture (mean sizes, 333 and 143 ha, respectively), and conversion occurred rapidly; >90% of clearings for cropland were planted in the first year after deforestation. Area deforested for cropland and mean annual soybean price in the year of forest clearing were directly correlated (R(2) = 0.72), suggesting that deforestation rates could return to higher levels seen in 2003-2004 with a rebound of crop prices in international markets. Pasture remains the dominant land use after forest clearing in Mato Grosso, but the growing importance of larger and faster conversion of forest to cropland defines a new paradigm of forest loss in Amazonia and refutes the claim that agricultural intensification does not lead to new deforestation.