Recent trends of in situ carcinoma of the breast and mammographic screening in the Florence area, Italy

OBJECTIVES

The study analyzes the relationship between the incidence trends of breast carcinoma in situ (CIS) and the spread of mammography screening in the Italian area of Florence (about 608,000 female residents).

SETTING

In this area, since the seventies, a mammographic screening by personal invitation was performed by the Center for Cancer Prevention (CSPO) in some rural municipalities. After 1990, the municipality of Florence and other municipalities were involved in the screening.

METHODS

The study included all cases of female breast carcinomas in situ reported to the population-based Tuscany Cancer Registry between 1985 and 1995. On the basis of information from the CSPO files, the cases were categorized into: "screen-detected", "self-referrals", and "other" (CSPO cases diagnosed in symptomatic women or at periodic check up after breast cancer plus hospital cases).

RESULTS

Overall, 332 women with breast carcinoma in situ (CIS) were registered between 1985 and 1995. The CIS incidence rate increased from 2.39/100,000 women in 1985-87 to 6.22/100,000 in 1994-95. The largest increase was observed for the ductal carcinoma in situ (2.9 times) and in women aged 50-69 years (3.8 times). In this age group, cases diagnosed at the screening by personal invitation accounted for 69% of the rise in CIS incidence. The proportion of mastectomy lowered from 41% before 1990 to 25% after 1990.

CONCLUSION

In the Florence area the CIS incidence trend, showing a marked increase beginning in 1991, was mainly explained by the spread of the mammographic screening by personal invitation. The period during which mammographic screening became widespread coincided with a change in the treatment policy of breast cancer, with a high proportion of breast conserving surgery also for CIS. Therefore, the rise in CIS incidence rates correlated with the widespread use of mammographic screening did not substantially increase the number of women treated by mastectomy.

Fibrinogen and mortality in chronic critical limb ischaemia

OBJECTIVE

Plasma fibrinogen predicts cardiovascular events in patients with stable peripheral arterial occlusive disease, but its predictive value in patients with chronic critical limb ischaemia, a condition associated with a high risk of death, is unknown.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Determination of fibrinogen and other potential predictors during clinic-based work-up of patients admitted for diagnostic and therapeutic evaluation.

SUBJECTS

A total of 108 patients (72 +/- 10 years, 78 males) with atherosclerotic occlusive disease and critical limb ischaemia (pain at rest and/or trophic lesions) followed up for a median period of 1.6 years). (range: 8 days-5.5 years; 218 patient-years).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Total mortality.

RESULTS

Forty-five deaths (71% cardiovascular) occurred during the follow-up. Baseline fibrinogen was higher in those who died in the early follow-up period (first 6 months), as were white cell count and serum creatinine, while haematocrit was lower. Plasma fibrinogen values correlated positively with white cell count, and negatively with haematocrit; other cardiovascular prognostic factors did not differ. Only plasma fibrinogen predicted survival independently in multivariate age-corrected Cox regression analysis. Relative risk of death doubled for each standard deviation above the mean and increased with each tertile increase in fibrinogen.

CONCLUSIONS

Fibrinogen predicted death in these elderly arteriopaths with critical limb ischaemia, particularly those who died in the first months following critical ischaemia. Inflammatory stimuli secondary to severely defective tissue oxygenation and possibly sepsis and necrosis, might have stimulated fibrinogen, an acute-phase reactant, thereby compromising organ perfusion through increased blood viscosity and/or promoting thrombosis.

[The mortality due to pulmonary silicosis in the Tuscany region in the last decade demonstrates that the health effects of work exposure to silica are still marked]

An analysis of death certificates from 1987 to 1996 among residents of the Tuscany Region identified 1518 deaths from pneumoconiosis, the large majority from silicosis, a disease explained by occupational exposure to silica dust. A dozen of deaths are from asbestosis, occurred at younger ages and are concentrated in a restricted area where a cement-asbestos factory was active. Deaths from pneumoconiosis occurred mainly among males, and the rates of the disease are decreasing only in the latest years. About 10% of deaths from silicosis are among subjects dying before 65 years of age. Mortality rates are very high in several areas of the Region, approximating those from lung cancer and ischaemic heart disease. For the above reasons the disease is still of concern from the point of view of public health and actions are suggested to obtain a description of prevalence and incidence of the disease.

Risk of cancer other than Kaposi's sarcoma and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in persons with AIDS in Italy. Cancer and AIDS Registry Linkage Study

Record linkage was carried out between the national Registry of AIDS and 13 Cancer Registries (CRs) covering, in 1991, about 15% of the Italian population. Observed and expected numbers of cancers and standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were assessed in 6067 persons with AIDS, for a total of 25,759 person-years. Significantly increased SIRs were found for Hodgkin's disease [8.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.4-16.0], in which seven of 11 cases were of mixed cellularity type; invasive carcinoma of the cervix uteri (15.5; 95% CI 4.0-40.1); and non-melanomatous skin cancer (3.0, 95% CI 1.3-5.9), in which five of eight cases were basal cell carcinoma. An excess was also seen for brain tumours, but this may be partly due to misdiagnosis of brain non-Hodgkin's lymphoma or other brain diseases occurring near the time of the AIDS diagnosis. The risk for all cancer types, after exclusion of Kaposi's sarcoma (KS) and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL), was approximately twice the general population risk. An increased SIR for Hodgkin's disease in persons with AIDS is thus confirmed, though it is many times smaller than that for NHL. An association with invasive carcinoma of the cervix is also shown at a population level. The excess of non-melanomatous skin cancer seems to be lower than in transplant recipients.

High suicide mortality soon after diagnosis among cancer patients in central Italy

A high suicide mortality risk has been documented among a population-based cohort of 27 123 cancer patients resident in central Italy where the general suicide rate is low. Forty-one suicides were observed (SMR = 2.36) which were only 0.2% of all deaths. However, the highest risk (SMR = 27.7) during the first 6 months after diagnosis, represents a greater contrast with the general population than has been observed in other studies.

Linkage of AIDS and cancer registries in Italy

We report the first results of a comparison between the Italian Registry on AIDS (RAIDS) and 13 population-based cancer registries (about 8 million population in 1991) with respect to the notification of Kaposi's sarcoma and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Routine indicators of data quality and completeness have been found in both types of registry, consistent with the best international standards. A linkage process was carried out on about 339,000 cancer notifications and 3,134 AIDS notifications and was herein restricted to individuals under the age of 50. Out of 243 Kaposi's sarcomas at either type of registry, 90 (37%) were reported as such by both; 68% of individuals with Kaposi's sarcoma at cancer registries could be identified at the AIDS registry, including AIDS-defining illnesses other than Kaposi's sarcoma; 62% of individuals with Kaposi's sarcoma at RAIDS could be found at cancer registries. Of 2,104 non-Hodgkin's lymphomas at either type of registry, 55 were reported as such by both; 65% of individuals reported as having non-Hodgkin's lymphoma at the AIDS registry were found at cancer registries. Our present results indicate the scope for improving cancer assessment in individuals with HIV infection and AIDS and the potential of AIDS and cancer registries for such a purpose.

[Survival for digestive system tumors: Italian population-based data and international comparisons]

Survival for malignant tumour of the upper digestive tract, oesophagus, stomach and pancreas are analysed from the data of 5042 cases observed during the period 1976-1985 by the Italian cancer registries (CRs) of Varese, Latina, Ragusa and Florence. Three-year relative survival rates were 42% for patients with tumours of the upper digestive tract and 7% for those tumour of the oesophagus. Five-year relative survival for patients with stomach cancer was 20%. A worse prognosis was found for cases from the Latina and Ragusa CRs. One-year relative survival for patients with pancreatitic cancer was 17%. Younger age, histologic confirmation, period of diagnosis (for upper tract, stomach and pancreatitic cancers), and female gender (for tumours of the upper tract) resulted as positively associated to survival.

[Use of mortality statistics for the study of the distribution of digestive system tumors: characteristics and quality of the data]

We present an evaluation of the accuracy of death certificates in Italy for patients with cancers of the digestive apparatus in Italy: oral cavity and pharynx, oesophagus, stomach, colon rectum, liver, bilious ducts, pancreas. The diagnosis reported on death certificates is compared to post mortem examinations, diagnoses histologically confirmed, clinical and cancer registry records. For oropharynx cancer mortality data available from official statistics are underreported when compared to cancer registry data. The oesophagus presents misclassification problems with gastric cancer. Mortality data of stomach cancer show a good agreement with incidence and mortality data from cancer registries. No major differences are revealed among the various sources for colorectal cancer mortality. On the contrary the separate analysis of colon and rectum evidentiates diagnostical difficulties in identifying the primary site of intestinal cancers. Cancers of liver, bilious ducts and pancreas have a low percentage of cases with histological confirm and a high frequency of death certificate only (DCO) due to diagnostical difficulties.

[Mortality in population migrated from other Italian regions to the Tuscany region in 1989-94]

In the period 1989-94, mortality rates for the most important causes of death in people migrated to the Tuscany from other Italian regions were analysed. The area of birth was assessed according to the information on province of birth recorded on death certificates. For this analysis we classified Italy into Tuscany and five broad areas, each including a number of political regions: North-West, North-East, Centre, South and Islands. The number of person-years for calculation of the mortality risks was based on 1991 census data, which also included information on place of birth and on current residence. The risks of death of subjects born in other Italian areas and resident in Tuscany ("migrated populations") in comparison to Tuscany born population were assessed by means of Poisson multivariate regression models. For most sites (particularly for lung and breast), cancer mortality rates were higher among North-West and North-East born people and lower among Centre, South and Islands born people. Gastric cancer mortality was higher in Tuscany born subjects. Cardiovascular diseases mortality was generally lower among people born outside of the Tuscany, with the exception of ischaemic heart disease (higher in North-West and Islands born people). Liver cirrhosis mortality was generally higher in North-West, North-East, South and Islands born subjects (with some differences between males and females). Diabetes mellitus mortality was higher in South and Islands born people. AIDS and opioids overdose mortality was higher in North-West born subjects. Mortality for external causes was higher in people born outside of the Tuscany. Both in males and females, overall mortality was higher in North-West and lower in South born people and lower in Centre and Islands born males.

[Hospital admissions, diagnostic and therapeutic procedures of patients with colorectal cancer during 5 years after diagnosis: population-based study]

This research evaluated basic parameters of care, also in the terms of costs. The study examined a sample of colorectal cancer cases incident in 1987 in the population of Florence's municipality, taken from the data base of Tuscany Cancer Registry (RTT). We collected, for 71 patients, all clinical records, for the five follow-up years and evaluated the diagnostic and therapeutic procedures (blood tests, histologic examination, instrumental investigation and surgical intervention) and the duration of all hospitalisations. Besides, on the basis of the diagnostic and therapeutic procedures and of the discharge diagnosis, each hospitalisation was coded following the DRG system and the economic cost of hospital care was analysed. The average number of hospitalisations and the average length of stay for patient in five follow-up years are respectively 1.9 (SD = 1.3) and 41.3 (SD = 25.8); the length of stay resulted highly correlated with the stage of disease. The mean hospital cost per patient (about ItL 18.000.000 overall) was higher in patients with more advanced disease at diagnosis. In the period of study an average 125.9 blood tests (SD = 110.7), 1.2 histologic examinations (SD = 0.9) and 10.3 instrumental investigations (SD = 9.0) were performed for each patient; 61 subjects (86%) were submitted to surgical intervention, of which 4 had a second intervention, and 1 subject was submitted to surgical intervention for liver's metastases.

Survival after AIDS diagnosis in Tuscany (Italy), 1985-1992

The study evaluated the overall survival after AIDS diagnosis of 1,014 patients reported to the Italian AIDS Registry as resident in Tuscany, stratified by age, gender, year of diagnosis, HIV transmission category, initial AIDS-defining disease and CD4+ cells count. The study was a population-based survival analysis, carried out through Kaplan-Meier method (mean survival times-MST-, 1, 2 and 3-year observed survival) and Cox models (crude and adjusted relative risk-RR). The MST was 12.4 months for all cases, increasing from 4-7 months in 1985-1987 to 14 months in 1991-1992. The observed survival was 51.4% at the first year of follow-up, 28.4% at the second year and 14.5% at the third year. The multivariate analysis showed an independent prognostic effect of age, year of diagnosis, initial AIDS-defining disease and CD4+ cells count. The prognosis was worse in cases aged over 44 (reference: 25-29), diagnosed before 1988 (reference: 1991) and with wasting syndrome, toxoplasmosis, HIV encephalopathy or multiple diseases (reference: PCP alone); and better in cases with more than 100 CD4+ cells/mm3 (reference: < or = 50 cells/mm3). The differences in gender and among HIV transmission categories disappeared after age-adjustment. The study confirmed, in an European population-based series, the poor long-term AIDS prognosis and, once AIDS has became clinically manifest, the prognostic value of some clinical and demographic variables.

Changing trends in the incidence of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in Europe. Biomed Study Group

Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) is not a uniform disease entity, and in order to investigate the reported changes in incidence we have set up a study in seven population-based cancer registries in Europe. The study is designed to look at changes in the incidence of total NHL and disease subgroups using standard definitions and methodology. The registries are based in Leeds, Dijon, Kuopio, Odense, Florence, Eindhoven, and Ragussa. The classification system we have used is based on the REAL classification and has utility for epidemiological studies. We have used it to convert data sets which have utilized both local cases and the ICD-O classification. In order to improve data reproducibility, CLL/LL, myeloma/MGUS, lymphoblastic disease, and Hodgkin's disease have been excluded because of the difficulty in defining incident cases accurately. The preliminary results of this study show that there is still an upward trend in incidence rate and that in Yorkshire this is 3% per annum in total NHL. The subgroups which are increasing are extranodal and nodal peripheral T-cell lymphoma. Similar increases in incidence have been reported for the other registries. We conclude that there is a continued upward trend in incidence of NHL, the causes of which are uncertain.

[Avoidable mortality in the Italian regions, 1980-1990]

In Italy, between 1890-85 and 1986-90, rates for most "avoidable deaths" decreased: the decline ranged between 20% and 50%. For ages 5-64 years, total "avoidable mortality" declined in both sexes at a greater percentage (-26/27%) than mortality for all causes (-12%). In both periods, often the higher mortality rates (for causes of death selected as "avoidable" and for total avoidable mortality") were observed in the regions of Southern Italy. The "avoidable mortality" summary score showed higher values in 5 regions of Southern Italy (Compania, Sicily, Puglia, Calabria and Basilicata, the last in the period 1986-90, and in 2 regions of Northern Italy (Piedmont and Valle d'Aosta). The regions with higher values of the "avoidable mortality" summary score had also SMRs for total "avoidable mortality" significantly higher than the standard population (whole Italy of the same period). Hypertensive and cerebrovascular diseases, all respiratory diseases (age 1.4 years), perinatal mortality, and, only in the first period, the chronic rheumatic heart disease and all respiratory diseases (age 5-14 years) showed the highest degree of regional variations. The SMRs significantly higher than the standard population were more frequent in females (also after exclusion of sex-specific causes of death). The number of SMRs significantly higher than the standard population and the range of the "avoidable mortality" summary scores were smaller in the second period.

Colorectal cancer survival--population-based rates in the province of Florence

This study aimed to evaluate survival in 2,339 colorectal cancer patients diagnosed in 1985-87 in the province of Florence, where the Tuscany Tumour Registry is active. The effect of sex, site (colon, rectum), sub-site, disease diffusion (localized, regional, distant, unspecified), year of diagnosis, place of residence (municipalities involved in the screening programme, Florence, others) and source of diagnosis (Center for the Study and Prevention of Cancer-CSPO, others) were evaluated. Five-year observed and relative survivals were 37.9 and 48.1% respectively. Five-year prognosis was worse in men, in older age groups, in advanced stages and in patients not diagnosed at the CSPO. No differences were shown in residents of municipalities involved in the screening programme. Relative 5-year survival in Florence was among the highest in Europe for cancers of both the colon and the rectum. Sex, age, disease diffusion and source of diagnosis showed an independent prognostic effect. The effect of screening was not evident, probably due to the low compliance during the period under study and to the use of a low sensitivity test.

Colorectal, lung, and breast cancer care during the three years following the diagnosis: a population-based study

AIMS

We evaluated a number of basic parameters of care during hospitalization that contribute to the total cost of therapy during the 3 years after the first diagnosis of cancer.

METHODS

The study examined a sample of cases of cancer of the colon-rectum (164 cases), lung (160 cases) and breast (144 cases) diagnosed in 1987, taken from the data base of the Tuscany Cancer Registry. All the information collected by the Registry was examined and the sample was further validated by reviewing original clinical records. The agreement between the two sources was very high, confirming the adequacy of the Registry as a source of information. The parameters evaluated for each patient were the number of cytohistologic examinations, surgery, hospital admissions and days spent in hospital during the 3 follow-up years.

RESULTS

The average number of admittances in 3 years was 1.93 for colorectal, 3.39 for lung and 2.15 for breast cancer. The mean number of days spent in hospital in the 3 follow-up years was 39.9 for colorectal, 50.1 for lung and 21.1 for breast cancer. The parameters differed among subjects still alive, those deceased and those in various stages of the illness.

CONCLUSIONS

The costs of the time spent in hospital, based on the number of days during the first 3 years of the illness, were higher in cases of lung cancer than of the other sites, and more so for patients diagnosed in an advanced phase of the disease.

Completeness of AIDS reporting and quality of AIDS death certification in Tuscany (Italy): a linkage study between surveillance system of cases and death certificates

In Italy, the AIDS cases defined according to the CDC criteria are reported to the National AIDS Registry (RAIDS, compulsory surveillance system). The aim of the present study is to evaluate the completeness of AIDS cases reported and the quality of AIDS death certification in an Italian Region (Tuscany, about 3,500,000 inhabitants). The 737 AIDS cases reported to RAIDS as residents in Tuscany (1987-91) were cross-linked (key link: name and date of birth) with the data of the Mortality Registration system of the Region (RMR). For the residents in Tuscany decreased with a 279.1 death diagnosis (the code for AIDS deaths stated by the Italian Census Bureau) and not reported to RAIDS as AIDS cases, the clinical records were reviewed to check whether the diagnosis fitted the 1987-CDC diagnostic criteria. This study shows that there is a high completeness (97-98%) of the AIDS cases resident in Tuscany, reported to the RAIDS. The quality of RAIDS data is not as good with regard to life status assessment (23% of under-reporting of death). In Tuscany, the death certification for AIDS (code 279.1 of ICD IX) has a sensitivity of 88% and a specificity around 100% in comparison to RAIDS. About 50% of 'false negatives' in death certification are due to causes of death presumably unrelated to HIV infection. The evaluation of the quality of AIDS surveillance and mortality data is important in the assessment of the impact for AIDS epidemic in a target population.