Changing epidemiology, global trends and implications for outcomes of NAFLD

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has rapidly become the most common liver disease globally and is currently estimated to affect 38% of the global population. Only a minority of patients with NAFLD will progress to cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma, but from this vast population the total number of patients who are at risk of such severe outcomes is increasing. Worryingly, individuals are increasingly being affected by NAFLD at an earlier age, meaning there is more time for them to develop severe complications. With considerable changes in dietary composition and urbanisation, alongside the growth in obesity and type 2 diabetes in the global population, in particular in developing countries, the global proportion of persons affected by NAFLD is projected to increase further. Yet, there are large geographical discrepancies in the prevalence rates of NAFLD and its inflammatory component non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Such differences are partly related to differing socio-economic milieus, but also to genetic predisposition. In this narrative review, we discuss recent changes in the epidemiology of NAFLD and NASH from regional and global perspectives, as well as in special populations. We also discuss the potential consequences of these changes on hepatic and extrahepatic events.

Incidence, prevalence and mortality of chronic liver diseases in Sweden between 2005 and 2019

BACKGROUND

Updated data on the incidence, prevalence, and regional differences of chronic liver disease are missing from many countries. In this study, we aimed to describe time trends, incidence, prevalence, and mortality of a wide range of chronic liver diseases in Sweden.

METHODS

In this register-based, nationwide observational study, patients with a register-based diagnosis of chronic liver disease, during 2005-2019, were retrieved from the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare. Annual age-standardized incidence and mortality rates, and prevalence per 100,000 inhabitants was calculated and stratified on age, sex, and geographical region.

RESULTS

The incidence of alcohol-related cirrhosis increased by 47% (2.6% annually), reaching an incidence rate of 13.1/100,000 inhabitants. The incidence rate of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and unspecified liver cirrhosis increased by 217% and 87% (8.0 and 4.3% annually), respectively, reaching an incidence rate of 15.2 and 18.7/100,000 inhabitants, and a prevalence of 24.7 and 44.8/100,000 inhabitants. Furthermore, incidence rates of chronic hepatitis C declined steeply, but liver malignancies have become more common. The most common causes of liver-related mortality were alcohol-related liver disease and unspecified liver disease.

CONCLUSION

The incidence rates of diagnosed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, alcohol-related cirrhosis, unspecified liver cirrhosis, and liver malignancies have increased during the last 15 years. Worryingly, mortality in several liver diseases increased, likely reflecting increasing incidences of cirrhosis in spite of a decreasing rate of hepatitis C. Significant disparities exist across sex and geographical regions, which need to be considered when allocating healthcare resources.

Performance of non-invasive tests and histology for the prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: an individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Histologically assessed liver fibrosis stage has prognostic significance in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and is accepted as a surrogate endpoint in clinical trials for non-cirrhotic NAFLD. Our aim was to compare the prognostic performance of non-invasive tests with liver histology in patients with NAFLD.

METHODS

This was an individual participant data meta-analysis of the prognostic performance of histologically assessed fibrosis stage (F0-4), liver stiffness measured by vibration-controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4), and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) in patients with NAFLD. The literature was searched for a previously published systematic review on the diagnostic accuracy of imaging and simple non-invasive tests and updated to Jan 12, 2022 for this study. Studies were identified through PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL, and authors were contacted for individual participant data, including outcome data, with a minimum of 12 months of follow-up. The primary outcome was a composite endpoint of all-cause mortality, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or cirrhosis complications (ie, ascites, variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, or progression to a MELD score ≥15). We calculated aggregated survival curves for trichotomised groups and compared them using stratified log-rank tests (histology: F0-2 vs F3 vs F4; LSM: <10 vs 10 to <20 vs ≥20 kPa; FIB-4: <1·3 vs 1·3 to ≤2·67 vs >2·67; NFS: <-1·455 vs -1·455 to ≤0·676 vs >0·676), calculated areas under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (tAUC), and performed Cox proportional-hazards regression to adjust for confounding. This study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022312226.

FINDINGS

Of 65 eligible studies, we included data on 2518 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD from 25 studies (1126 [44·7%] were female, median age was 54 years [IQR 44-63), and 1161 [46·1%] had type 2 diabetes). After a median follow-up of 57 months [IQR 33-91], the composite endpoint was observed in 145 (5·8%) patients. Stratified log-rank tests showed significant differences between the trichotomised patient groups (p<0·0001 for all comparisons). The tAUC at 5 years were 0·72 (95% CI 0·62-0·81) for histology, 0·76 (0·70-0·83) for LSM-VCTE, 0·74 (0·64-0·82) for FIB-4, and 0·70 (0·63-0·80) for NFS. All index tests were significant predictors of the primary outcome after adjustment for confounders in the Cox regression.

INTERPRETATION

Simple non-invasive tests performed as well as histologically assessed fibrosis in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD and could be considered as alternatives to liver biopsy in some cases.

FUNDING

Innovative Medicines Initiative 2.

Risk of fractures and postfracture mortality in 3980 people with primary biliary cholangitis: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Morbidity in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is multifactorial. Osteoporosis related to cholestasis is an extrahepatic complication of PBC. It is not fully established to what extent people with PBC have an increased risk for fractures, and if mortality after a fracture is increased, compared to the general population.

METHODS

All Swedish people with PBC diagnosed between 2001 and 2016 were identified from the National Swedish Patient Register using ICD-10 codes. Incident fractures were ascertained in the same register and compared to matched controls from the Swedish general population (1:10 for age, sex, and municipality). Cox regression was used to investigate the rates of fractures and postfracture mortality. The cumulative incidence of fractures was calculated while accounting for competing risks (death or liver transplantation).

RESULTS

People with PBC (n = 3980) showed a higher risk of fractures at all-time points during follow-up compared to matched controls (n = 37,196), which was seen both in men and women. At 5 years of follow-up, the cumulative incidence of any fracture in people with PBC was 16.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 15.6-18.1), compared to 11.6% (95%CI = 11.3-12.0) in controls. The rate of osteoporotic fractures was particularly high (adjusted Hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.9; 95% = CI 1.7-2.0). The 30-day as well as the 1-year mortality after a fracture was significantly higher in people with PBC compared to controls that also experienced a fracture (aHR = 2.2; 95%CI = 1.5-3.2; aHR = 2.0; 95%CI 1.7-2.4).

CONCLUSION

People with PBC have a significantly higher risk of fractures and postfracture mortality compared to matched controls from the general population.

Administrative coding for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is accurate in Swedish patients

Background and Aims: Epidemiological studies of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) frequently use the International Classification of Disease (ICD) codes to identify patients. The validity of such ICD codes in a Swedish setting is unknown. Here, we aimed to validate the administrative code for NAFLD in Sweden.Methods: In total, 150 patients with an ICD-10 code for NAFLD (K76.0) from the Karolinska University Hospital between 1 January 2015 and 3 November 2021 were randomly selected. Patients were classified as true or false positives for NAFLD by medical chart review and the positive predictive value (PPV) for the ICD-10 code corresponding to NAFLD was calculated.Results: The PPV of the ICD-10 code for NAFLD was 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.76-0.89). After exclusion of patients with diagnostic coding for other liver diseases or alcohol abuse disorder (n = 14), the PPV was improved to 0.91 (95% CI 0.87-0.96). The PPV was higher in patients with coding for NAFLD in combination with obesity (0.95, 95%CI = 0.87-1.00) or type 2 diabetes (0.96, 95%CI = 0.89-1.00). However, in false-positive cases, a high alcohol consumption was common and such patients had somewhat higher Fibrosis-4 scores than true-positive patients (1.9 vs 1.3, p = 0.16)Conclusions: The ICD-10 code for NAFLD had a high PPV, that was further improved after exclusion of patients with coding for other liver diseases than NAFLD. This approach should be preferred when performing register-based studies to identify patients with NAFLD in Sweden. Still, residual alcohol-related liver disease might risk confound some findings seen in epidemiological studies which needs to be considered.

Erratum: Adaptation of the Charlson Comorbidity Index for Register-Based Research in Sweden [Corrigendum]

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.2147/CLEP.S282475.].

Risk of Cancer and Subsequent Mortality in Primary Biliary Cholangitis: A Population-based Cohort Study of 3052 Patients

Background and Aims

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a rare cholestatic liver disease. Incident cancer is a concern. Previous studies have described an increase in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but the risk of nonhepatic cancer and cancer risk across subgroups is largely unknown.

Methods

We used the Swedish National Patient Register to identify all patients diagnosed with PBC between 2002 and 2019. Patients were matched for age, sex, and municipality with up to 10 reference individuals from the general population. Incident cancer was recorded from the National Cancer Register. Cox regression was used to investigate the rates of cancer and postcancer mortality, adjusted for potential confounders. The cumulative incidence of cancer was calculated while accounting for the competing risk of death.

Results

At 10 years of follow-up, the cumulative incidence of any cancer in patients with PBC (n = 3052) was 14.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 12.8-15.9), compared to 11.8% (95% CI 11.3-12.2) in the reference population (n = 26,792) (adjusted hazard ratio aHR = 1.4, 95% CI = 1.2-1.5). The rate of HCC was particularly high (aHR 30.9; 95% CI = 14.8-64.6). The rate of cancer was higher in patients with cirrhosis (aHR 2.1; 95% CI 1.4-3.0), but similar across categories of age and sex. Increased rates of other cancer subtypes, including gastrointestinal (aHR = 1.5, 95% CI = 1.1-1.9), lung (aHR = 1.5, 95% CI = 1.1-2.2), and lymphoma (aHR = 2.9, 95% CI = 1.9-4.6) were seen. Following a diagnosis of cancer, patients with PBC had higher mortality rates compared to reference individuals (aHR = 1.4, 95% CI = 1.2-1.7). This was mainly driven by HCC (non-HCC-related mortality: aHR = 1.1, 95% CI = 0.9-1.5).

Conclusion

Patients with PBC have a significantly higher risk of HCC compared to matched individuals from the general population, but only a low risk increase of non-HCC cancer.

Dysregulated peripheral proteome reveals NASH-specific signatures identifying patient subgroups with distinct liver biology

Background and aims

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common chronic liver disease. The prognosis may vary from simple steatosis to more severe outcomes such as nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), liver cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma. The understanding of the biological processes leading to NASH is limited and non-invasive diagnostic tools are lacking.

Methods

The peripheral immunoproteome in biopsy-proven NAFL (n=35) and NASH patients (n=35) compared to matched, normal-weight healthy controls (n=15) was studied using a proximity extension assay, combined with spatial and single cell hepatic transcriptome analysis.

Results

We identified 13 inflammatory serum proteins that, independent of comorbidities and fibrosis stage, distinguished NASH from NAFL. Analysis of co-expression patterns and biological networks further revealed NASH-specific biological perturbations indicative of temporal dysregulation of IL-4/-13, -10, -18, and non-canonical NF-kβ signaling. Of the identified inflammatory serum proteins, IL-18 and EN-RAGE as well as ST1A1 mapped to hepatic macrophages and periportal hepatocytes, respectively, at the single cell level. The signature of inflammatory serum proteins further permitted identification of biologically distinct subgroups of NASH patients.

Conclusion

NASH patients have a distinct inflammatory serum protein signature, which can be mapped to the liver parenchyma, disease pathogenesis, and identifies subgroups of NASH patients with altered liver biology.

Increased risk for microvascular outcomes in NAFLD - a nationwide, population-based cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is considered a multisystem disease, as it is bidirectionally linked to other cardiometabolic disorders, such as type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, the long-term risk for microvascular outcomes in NAFLD is unclear.

METHODS

Using the outpatient part of the nationwide Swedish Patient Register in the time period between 01/01/2002-12/31/2019, we identified all individuals with a first NAFLD diagnosis (N = 6,785) and matched these (age, sex, and municipality) with up to 10 reference individuals from the general population (N = 61,136). Using population-based registers, we ascertained the development of microvascular diseases. The primary outcome was defined as a composite outcome of any diagnosis representative of microvascular disease (chronic kidney disease, retinopathy, or neuropathy). As secondary outcomes, we separately examined the risk of each specific microvascular outcome. Hazard ratios (aHR, adjusted for cirrhosis and time-varying T2D, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia) for the outcomes were calculated by Cox proportional-hazards models.

RESULTS

Median follow-up was 5.7 years. The incidence rate of microvascular diseases was >2-fold higher in patients with NAFLD (10.8 per 1000 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) = 9.9-11.8]) versus reference individuals (4.7 per 1000 person-years [95%CI = 4.5-4.9]). NAFLD was independently and positively associated with the development of microvascular diseases compared to non-NAFLD subjects (aHR = 1.45 [95%CI = 1.28-1.63]). When stratifying the analysis by follow-up time, sex, or age categories, results remain virtually unchanged.

CONCLUSIONS

NAFLD is positively and independently associated with the development of microvascular diseases. The risk for development of microvascular diseases should be taken into account in the personalized risk assessment of individuals with NAFLD. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Consensus Statement on the definition and classification of metabolic hyperferritinaemia

Hyperferritinaemia is a common laboratory finding that is often associated with metabolic dysfunction and fatty liver. Metabolic hyperferritinaemia reflects alterations in iron metabolism that facilitate iron accumulation in the body and is associated with an increased risk of cardiometabolic and liver diseases. Genetic variants that modulate iron homeostasis and tissue levels of iron are the main determinants of serum levels of ferritin in individuals with metabolic dysfunction, raising the hypothesis that iron accumulation might be implicated in the pathogenesis of insulin resistance and the related organ damage. However, validated criteria for the non-invasive diagnosis of metabolic hyperferritinaemia and the staging of iron overload are still lacking, and there is no clear evidence of a benefit for iron depletion therapy. Here, we provide an overview of the literature on the relationship between hyperferritinaemia and iron accumulation in individuals with metabolic dysfunction, and on the associated clinical outcomes. We propose an updated definition and a provisional staging system for metabolic hyperferritinaemia, which has been agreed on by a multidisciplinary global panel of expert researchers. The goal is to foster studies into the epidemiology, genetics, pathophysiology, clinical relevance and treatment of metabolic hyperferritinaemia, for which we provide suggestions on the main unmet needs, optimal design and clinically relevant outcomes.

Three-fold Increased Risk of Death in Budd-Chiari Syndrome Compared to Matched Controls: A Population-based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients with Budd-Chiari syndrome (BCS) have an elevated risk of overall and liver-specific mortality, but this has not been quantified on a population level nor compared against a matched general population cohort.

METHODS

We identified all patients in Sweden with a recorded diagnosis of BCS in the Swedish National Patient Register between 1987 and 2016. Patients with BCS were matched for age, sex, and municipality at baseline with up to 10 reference individuals from the general population. Data on cause-specific mortality were obtained from the Causes of Death Register. A Cox regression model was performed to investigate rates of all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 478 patients with BCS were matched with 4603 reference individuals. Of the patients with BCS, 43% were men, the median age was 58 years, 39% had a recorded diagnosis of a precipitating risk factor, and 13% had underlying liver disease. During a follow-up of up to 29 years, 243 (51%) of the patients with BCS died compared with 1346 (29%) of the reference individuals. Overall mortality was 70 per 1000 person-years in patients with BCS compared with 28 per 1000 person-years in reference individuals, translating into an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 3.1 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.6-3.6). Although liver-related mortality was particularly high (aHR, 47.6; 95% CI, 16.5-137.4), liver disease accounted for only 10% of deaths in BCS. The most common cause of death was cardiovascular disease (aHR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.7-2.9).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with BCS in Sweden had a 3-fold higher risk of death compared with general population reference individuals. Although mortality from liver diseases was high in relative terms, most patients died from cardiovascular causes.

Extra-hepatic morbidity and mortality in alcohol-related liver disease: Systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Alcohol use increases the risk of many conditions in addition to liver disease; patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) are therefore at risk from both extra-hepatic and hepatic disease.

AIMS

This review synthesises information about non-liver-related mortality in persons with ALD.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was performed to identify studies describing non-liver outcomes in ALD. Information about overall non-liver mortality was extracted from included studies and sub-categorised into major causes: cardiovascular disease (CVD), non-liver cancer and infection. Single-proportion meta-analysis was done to calculate incidence rates (events/1000 patient-years) and relative risks (RR) compared with control populations.

RESULTS

Thirty-seven studies describing 50 302 individuals with 155 820 patient-years of follow-up were included. Diabetes, CVD and obesity were highly prevalent amongst included patients (5.4%, 10.4% and 20.8% respectively). Outcomes varied across the spectrum of ALD: in alcohol-related fatty liver the rate of non-liver mortality was 43.4/1000 patient-years, whereas in alcoholic hepatitis the rate of non-liver mortality was 22.5/1000 patient-years. The risk of all studied outcomes was higher in ALD compared with control populations: The RR of death from CVD was 2.4 (1.6-3.8), from non-hepatic cancer 2.2 (1.6-2.9) and from infection 8.2 (4.7-14.3).

CONCLUSION

Persons with ALD are at high risk of death from non-liver causes such as cardiovascular disease and non-hepatic cancer.

FXR inhibition may protect from SARS-CoV-2 infection by reducing ACE2

Preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection by modulating viral host receptors, such as angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2)1, could represent a new chemoprophylactic approach for COVID-19 that complements vaccination2,3. However, the mechanisms that control the expression of ACE2 remain unclear. Here we show that the farnesoid X receptor (FXR) is a direct regulator of ACE2 transcription in several tissues affected by COVID-19, including the gastrointestinal and respiratory systems. We then use the over-the-counter compound z-guggulsterone and the off-patent drug ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) to reduce FXR signalling and downregulate ACE2 in human lung, cholangiocyte and intestinal organoids and in the corresponding tissues in mice and hamsters. We show that the UDCA-mediated downregulation of ACE2 reduces susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro, in vivo and in human lungs and livers perfused ex situ. Furthermore, we reveal that UDCA reduces the expression of ACE2 in the nasal epithelium in humans. Finally, we identify a correlation between UDCA treatment and positive clinical outcomes after SARS-CoV-2 infection using retrospective registry data, and confirm these findings in an independent validation cohort of recipients of liver transplants. In conclusion, we show that FXR has a role in controlling ACE2 expression and provide evidence that modulation of this pathway could be beneficial for reducing SARS-CoV-2 infection, paving the way for future clinical trials.

Risk for incident comorbidities, nonhepatic cancer and mortality in acute hepatic porphyria: A matched cohort study in 1244 individuals

The acute hepatic porphyrias (AHP) are associated with long-term complications such as primary liver cancer, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease. Data on other related comorbidities are scarce. In this register-based, matched cohort study, we assessed the risks of nonhepatic cancers, cardiovascular diseases, renal diseases, psychiatric disorders, and mortality in relation to porphyria type, sex, and biochemical disease activity. All patients in the Swedish porphyria register with a verified AHP diagnosis during 1987-2015 were included. The biochemical activity of acute intermittent porphyria was assessed using recorded maximal urinary porphobilinogen (U-PBG). Data on incident comorbidities and mortality were collected from national health registries. Cumulative incidences, rates, and hazards were compared to reference individuals from the general population, matched 1:10 by age, sex, and county. We identified 1244 patients with AHP with a median follow-up of 19 years. Health registries identified 149 AHP-subjects (12.0%) with nonhepatic cancer, similar to 1601 (13.0%) in the matched reference population (n = 12 362). Patients with AHP had a higher risk of kidney cancer (0.8% vs. 0.2%, p < 0.001), hypertension, and chronic kidney disease but no increase in risk for cardiovascular disease, except for cerebrovascular disease in patients with elevated U-PBG, (aHR = 1.40 [95% CI:1.06-1.85]). Mortality risk during follow-up was higher among patients with AHP (21% vs. 18%, p = 0.001), and associated with primary liver cancer, female sex, and biochemical activity. In conclusion, AHP is associated with an increased risk of kidney cancer, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, and mortality but not with cardiovascular disease or other nonhepatic cancers.

Cardiovascular disease risk in paediatric and young adult non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

OBJECTIVE

Longitudinal evidence is lacking regarding the long-term risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in children and young adults with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

DESIGN

This nationwide cohort study included all Swedish children and young adults ≤25 years old with histologically confirmed NAFLD and without underlying cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline (1966-2016; n=699). NAFLD was defined from prospectively recorded histopathology, and further categorised as simple steatosis or non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). NAFLD patients were matched to ≤5 population controls without NAFLD or CVD (n=3353). Using Cox proportional hazards modelling, we calculated multivariable-adjusted HRs (aHRs) and 95% CIs for incident MACE (ie, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, congestive heart failure or cardiovascular mortality). In secondary analyses, we also explored rates of incident cardiac arrhythmias.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 16.6 years, incident MACE was confirmed in 33 NAFLD patients and 52 controls. NAFLD patients had significantly higher rates of MACE than controls (3.1 vs 0.9/1000 person-years (PY); difference=2.1/1000 PY; aHR=2.33, 95% CI=1.43 to 3.78), including higher rates of ischaemic heart disease (difference=1.4/1000 PY; aHR=3.07, 95% CI 1.62 to 5.83) and congestive heart failure (difference=0.5/1000 PY; aHR=3.89, 95% CI=1.20 to 12.64). Rates of incident MACE outcomes appeared to be further augmented with NASH (aHR=5.27, 95% CI=1.96 to 14.19). In secondary analyses, NAFLD patients also had significantly higher rates of cardiac arrythmias (aHR=3.16, 95% CI=1.49 to 6.68).

CONCLUSION

Compared with matched population controls, children and young adults with biopsy-proven NAFLD had significantly higher rates of incident MACE, including ischaemic heart disease and congestive heart failure. Research to better characterise cardiovascular risk in children and young adults with NAFLD should be prioritised.

Macronutrient composition and its effect on body composition changes during weight loss therapy in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: Secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVES

Dietary composition may affect body composition during weight loss therapy. We tested the hypothesis of whether dietary macronutrient composition influences the reduction of total abdominal adipose tissue, subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), or visceral adipose tissue (VAT) during weight loss.

METHODS

Dietary macronutrient composition and body composition were analyzed as a secondary outcome of a randomized controlled trial of 62 participants with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Patients were randomly assigned to a calorie-restricted intermittent fasting (5:2), calorie-restricted low-carbohydrate high-fat (LCHF), or healthy lifestyle advice (standard-of-care) diet in a 12-wk intervention phase. Dietary intake was assessed by self-reported 3-d food diaries and by characterization of total plasma fatty acid profile. Percentage of energy intake (E%) from different macronutrients was calculated. Body composition was assessed by magnetic resonance imaging and anthropometric measurements.

RESULTS

The macronutrient composition differed significantly between the 5:2 (fat 36 E% and carbohydrates 43 E%) and the LCHF (fat 69 E% and carbohydrates 9 E%) groups (P < 0.001). Weight loss was similar in the 5:2 and LCHF groups (-7.2 [SD = 3.4] kg versus 8.0 [SD = 4.8] kg; P = 0.44) and significantly larger than for standard of care (-2.5 kg [SD = 2.3]; P < 0.001). The volume of total abdominal fat, adjusted for height, decreased on average by 4.7% (standard of care), 14.3% (5:2), and 17.7% (LCHF), with no significant differences between the 5:2 and LHCF groups (P = 0.32). VAT and SAT, adjusted for height, decreased on average by 17.1% and 12.7% for 5:2, respectively, and by 21.2% and 17.9% for LCHF, with no significant group differences (VAT [P = 0.16] and SAT [P = 0.10]). VAT was mobilized to a greater extent than SAT in all diets.

CONCLUSIONS

The 5:2 and LCHF diets had similar effects on changes in intraabdominal fat mass and anthropometrics during weight loss. This might indicate that overall weight loss is more important than diet composition to achieve changes in total abdominal adipose tissue, VAT, or SAT. The results of the present study suggest that there is a need for further studies on the effect of diet composition on body composition changes during weight loss therapy.

Autopsy histology data suggest cirrhosis is frequently under-reported on death certificates

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis may be asymptomatic yet contribute to ill health. Here, we studied how often cirrhosis is discovered first at an autopsy. We also examined how frequent this finding was not reported on formal death certificates.

METHODS

We used register-based data from all liver biopsies in Sweden performed after death. Cross-linkage to national registers was performed to examine how often such patients had accurate coding for cirrhosis on their death certificates.

FINDINGS

A total of 6187 patients with a liver biopsy performed after death, showing cirrhosis. Of these, 2523 (41%) did not have a diagnosis corresponding to cirrhosis on their final death certificate.

Improved prediction of 10-year risk of severe liver disease in the general population using commonly available biomarkers

BACKGROUND

Estimating the risk for cirrhosis in the general population is complex. Existing prediction tools are in general unsatisfactory.

AIMS

To explore if using commonly available biomarkers can improve the commonly used FIB-4 score in the identification of subgroups at risk of cirrhosis.

METHODS

We used laboratory and clinical data on 126,925 individuals aged 35-79 years in Stockholm, Sweden, undergoing health examinations from 1985 to 1996. We used Swedish nationwide registries to ascertain 10-year cumulative incidence of severe liver disease, a composite of diagnoses corresponding to cirrhosis and its complications. We considered combinations of biomarkers associated with severe liver disease to identify subgroups with different risk profiles.

RESULTS

During an average follow-up of 9.3 years, we ascertained 630 incident cases of severe liver disease (0.5%). Age, the FIB-4 score, diabetes or impaired glucose and gamma-glutamyl transferase (gGT) were the most relevant characteristics for classifying risk profiles. Using these factors, we identified 24 groups with a cumulative incidence of severe liver disease at 10 years ranging from 0.2% (age 35-65, low FIB-4, no diabetes or impaired glucose and normal gGT) to 32.1% (age 35-65, high FIB-4, diabetes or impaired glucose and high gGT).

CONCLUSIONS

Identification of subjects at increased risk of severe liver disease in the general population using the FIB-4 score can be substantially improved by adding age and specific biomarkers commonly available in the primary care setting. These parameters should be considered for inclusion in the development of future risk prediction models.

Unrecognized liver cirrhosis is common and associated with worse survival in hepatocellular carcinoma: A nationwide cohort study of 3473 patients

BACKGROUND

Data on unrecognized liver cirrhosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are derived mainly from cohorts with a risk of selection bias.

OBJECTIVES

In a population-based cohort study we aimed to determine the proportion, characteristics, and prognosis of HCC in patients with unrecognized cirrhosis.

METHODS

Using the Swedish quality register for liver cancer and other nationwide registers, we identified all adults with HCC in Sweden between 2012 and 2018 (n = 3,473).

RESULTS

The final study cohort comprised 2670 patients with established cirrhosis, of which 1033 (39%) had unrecognized cirrhosis at HCC diagnosis. These patients were more often male, older, and had larger tumors, multinodular cancer, portal vein thrombosis, and extrahepatic metastasis compared to patients with known cirrhosis with HCC and under surveillance (34%). Compared to surveilled patients, those with unrecognized cirrhosis had worse median survival (0.89 years, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.78-1.01 vs. 3.79 years, 95%CI = 3.19-4.39), and an adjusted hazard ratio of 2.36 (95%CI = 2.09-2.66). Patients with cirrhosis but not under surveillance (27%) and patients with unrecognized cirrhosis had similar characteristics, such as equal proportions diagnosed at late stage (79%).

CONCLUSIONS

Cirrhosis is often not recognized in patients with HCC. Unrecognized cirrhosis is associated with more advanced HCC at diagnosis and a worse prognosis. More efforts are needed to diagnose cirrhosis at an earlier stage.