Differences in cigarette smoking quit attempts and cessation between adults who did and did not take up nicotine vaping: Findings from the ITC four country smoking and vaping surveys

INTRODUCTION

There is mixed evidence as to whether nicotine vaping products (NVPs) can help adults who smoke transition away from cigarettes. This study investigated if self-reported attempts to quit smoking and smoking cessation, over a period of either 18 or 24 months, differed between respondents who initiated nicotine vaping versus those who did not. Outcome comparisons were made between those who: (1) initiated vaping vs. those who did not; (2) initiated daily or non-daily vaping vs. those who did not; and (3) initiated daily or non-daily vaping between surveys and continued to vape at follow-up (daily or non-daily) vs. those who did not initiate vaping.

METHODS

This cohort study included 3516 respondents from the ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys (Australia, Canada, England, United Sates), recruited at Wave 1 (2016) or 2 (2018) and followed up at Wave 2 (18 months) and/or 3 (2020, 24 months). Adults who smoked daily at baseline and did not have a history of regular vaping were included. Initiation of vaping was defined as beginning to vape at least monthly between surveys. Respondents indicated whether they made an attempt to quit smoking between surveys. Smoking cessation was defined as those who self-reported no longer smoking cigarettes at follow-up.

RESULTS

Relative to those who did not initiate vaping, initiation of any daily vaping between surveys was associated with a greater likelihood of smokers making a cigarette quit attempt (p < 0.001) and quitting smoking (p < 0.001). Among smokers who attempted to quit smoking, initiation of daily vaping was associated with a greater likelihood of being abstinent from smoking at follow-up (p = 0.001). Respondents who initiated vaping between surveys and were vaping daily at follow up were significantly more likely to have attempted to quit smoking (p < 0.001) and to have quit smoking (p < 0.001) than those who did not initiate vaping. Respondents who initiated non-daily vaping did not differ significantly from those who did not initiate vaping on any of the outcome measures.

CONCLUSIONS

Daily NVP use was associated with increased attempts to quit smoking and abstinence from smoking cigarettes. These findings are consistent with the concept that complete cigarette substitution may be more likely to be achieved when smokers vape nicotine daily.

Tobacco Product Use and Functionally Important Respiratory Symptoms Among US Adolescents/Young Adults

OBJECTIVE

The relation between respiratory symptoms and the range of tobacco product use among US adolescents/young adults is not yet clear. This cross-sectional analysis examines tobacco product use and respiratory symptoms in a nationally representative sample of 21,057 adolescents/young adults aged 12-24 years from Wave 4 (2016-17) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study.

METHODS

Presence of functionally important respiratory symptoms was defined by questions regarding wheezing and nighttime cough at a cutoff score associated with poorer functional health status. Past-30-day tobacco use was analyzed 2 ways: never-tobacco users (reference) versus combustible users, noncombustible-only users, and former users; or frequency of use of cigarettes and/or e-cigarettes. Weighted Poisson regression adjusted for past-30-day marijuana use, secondhand smoke exposure, and asthma.

RESULTS

Functionally important respiratory symptoms were present in 10.0% overall: 13.8% of combustible users, 9.0% of noncombustible users, 8.2% of noncurrent users and 9.7% of never users. Functionally important respiratory symptoms were associated with combustible tobacco use (relative risk [RR] = 1.52[95% CI 1.29, 1.80]), marijuana use (RR = 1.54[1.34, 1.77]) and secondhand smoke exposure (RR = 1.04[1.03, 1.05]). Higher cigarette smoking frequency was also associated with functionally important respiratory symptoms for frequency categories >14 days/month (eg, RR = 1.93[1.50, 2.49] for 15-29 days/month). Frequency of e-cigarette use was not associated with functionally important respiratory symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

During 2016-17, smoking cigarettes, marijuana use, and secondhand smoke exposure were cross-sectionally associated with functionally important respiratory symptoms in adolescents/young adults. Risk increased with increased frequency of cigarette use but not e-cigarette use. Given changes to contemporary e-cigarettes and use, findings may not generalize to newer products.

Was COVID-19 associated with increased cigarette purchasing, consumption, and smoking at home among US smokers in early 2020? Findings from the US arm of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey

Evidence of the impact of COVID-19 and mandatory stay-at-home orders on cigarette smoking is mixed. In the United States, household tobacco purchases increased in early 2020, but it is unclear whether this was associated with increased smoking. Using individual-level, longitudinal data from a representative cohort of US smokers (n = 3046), this study tested whether (1) carton purchases of cigarettes increased in early 2020 relative to the same calendar period in 2018, (2) more smokers permitted smoking inside their homes, and (3) smokers increased the number of cigarettes they smoked per day. Weighted multivariable logistic regression tested whether trends in carton purchasing and smoke-free homes differed in 2020 compared to 2018 while weighted multivariable linear regression tested whether trends in cigarette consumption differed in 2020 compared to 2018. Overall, 24.0% of US smokers last purchased cigarettes by the carton in early 2018; this increased to 28.8% in early 2020 (p = 0.007). Average daily cigarette consumption and the percentage of smokers reporting that smoking was not allowed inside their homes did not differ between 2018 and 2020 (p = 0.92 and p = 0.054, respectively). Overall, these findings suggest that COVID-19 mitigation measures implemented in the spring of 2020 had limited impact on the smoking behavior of US adult smokers.

Do post-quitting experiences predict smoking relapse among former smokers in Australia and the United Kingdom? Findings from the International Tobacco Control Surveys

INTRODUCTION

Many smokers attempt to stop smoking every year, but the vast majority of quit attempts fail. This study examined prospectively the association between post-quitting experiences and smoking relapse among ex-smokers in Australia and the United Kingdom.

METHODS

Data came from 584 adult ex-smokers from Australia and the United Kingdom who participated in Wave 9 of the International Tobacco Control Four Country Survey and successfully followed up a year later (Wave 10). Binary logistic regression was used to examine whether baseline post-quitting experiences predicted relapse back to smoking at follow-up.

RESULTS

Ex-smokers who perceived their stress coping ability had gotten worse since quitting were more likely to relapse back to smoking compared to their counterparts who reported no change (odds ratio = 5.77, 95% confidence interval = 1.64, 20.31, P < 0.01). Ex-smokers who reported their homes had become fresher and cleaner post quitting were less likely to relapse compared to those who did not notice any change (odds ratio = 0.34, 95% confidence interval = 0.13, 0.93, P < 0.05). Perceived changes in life enjoyment, negative affect control, social confidence, work performance, leisure time and financial situation did not independently predict relapse. No country differences were found.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

The study showed that ex-smokers' relapse risk was elevated if they perceived any negative impact of quitting on their stress coping whereas relapse risk was reduced if they perceived any positive impact of quitting on the home (e.g. fresher and cleaner). Helping ex-smokers to develop alternative stress coping strategies and highlighting the positive impacts of quitting smoking on the homes may help protect against smoking relapse.

Do smokers' perceptions of the harmfulness of nicotine replacement therapy and nicotine vaping products as compared to cigarettes influence their use as an aid for smoking cessation? Findings from the ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys

Introduction

This study examined whether smokers’ harm perceptions of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) and nicotine vaping products (NVPs) relative to cigarettes predicted their subsequent use as smoking cessation aids during their last quit attempt (LQA).

Aims and Methods

We analyzed data from 1,315 current daily smokers (10+ cigarettes per day) who were recruited at Wave 1 (2016), and who reported making a quit attempt by Wave 2 (2018) of the International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys in Australia, Canada, England, and the United States. We used multinomial logistic regression models to examine prospective associations between harm perceptions of (a) NRT and (b) NVPs and their use at LQA, controlling for socio-demographic and other potential confounders.

Results

Smokers who perceive that (a) NRT and (b) NVPs are much less harmful than cigarettes were more likely to subsequently use the respective product as an aid than using no aid or other aids during LQA (adjusted relative risk ratio [aRRR] = 3.79, 95%CI = 2.16–6.66; and aRRR = 2.11, 95%CI = 1.29–3.45, respectively) compared to smokers who perceive these products as equally or more harmful. Additionally, those who perceive NVPs as much less harmful than cigarettes were less likely to use NRT as a quit aid (aRRR = 0.34, 95%CI = 0.20–0.60). No country variations for these associations were found.

Conclusions

This study found that smokers’ perceptions of the harmfulness of (a) NRT and (b) NVPs relative to cigarettes predicted the respective product use when trying to quit smoking. Corrective education targeting misperceptions of nicotine products’ relative harmfulness may facilitate their use for smoking cessation.

Implications

Nicotine replacement therapy and nicotine vaping products are two commonly used smoking cessation aids. This study demonstrates that misperceptions of the harms of nicotine products relative to cigarettes influence their use for smoking cessation. Believing that nicotine vaping products are much less harmful than cigarette smoking may lead some smokers to prefer these products over nicotine replacement therapy to aid smoking cessation. Education targeting misperceptions of nicotine products’ harmfulness relative to cigarettes may enable smokers to make informed choices about which are appropriate to aid smoking cessation.

Cardiovascular Outcomes among Combustible-Tobacco and Electronic Nicotine Delivery System (ENDS) Users in Waves 1 through 5 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, 2013-2019

BACKGROUND

Prior studies have not clearly established risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among smokers who switch to exclusive use of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS). We compared cardiovascular disease incidence in combustible-tobacco users, those who transitioned to ENDS use, and those who quit tobacco with never tobacco users.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study analyzes five waves of Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study data, Wave 1 (2013-2014) through Wave 5 (2018-2019). Cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence was captured over three intervals (Waves 1 to 3, Waves 2 to 4, and Waves 3 to 5). Participants were adults (40+ years old) without a history of CVD for the first two waves of any interval. Change in tobacco use status, from exclusive past 30 day use of any combustible-tobacco product to either exclusive past 30 day ENDS use, dual past 30 day use of ENDS and combustible-tobacco, or no past 30 day use of any tobacco, between the first two waves of an interval was used to predict onset of CVD between the second and third waves in the interval. CVD incidence was defined as a new self-report of being told by a health professional that they had congestive heart failure, stroke, or a myocardial infarction. Generalized estimating equation (GEE) analyses combined 10,548 observations across intervals from 7820 eligible respondents.

RESULTS

Overall, there were 191 observations of CVD among 10,548 total observations (1.7%, standard error (SE) = 0.2), with 40 among 3014 never users of tobacco (1.5%, SE = 0.3). In multivariable models, CVD incidence was not significantly different for any tobacco user groups compared to never users. There were 126 observations of CVD among 6263 continuing exclusive combustible-tobacco users (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.44; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.87-2.39), 15 observations of CVD among 565 who transitioned to dual use (AOR = 1.85; 0.78-4.37), and 10 observations of CVD among 654 who quit using tobacco (AOR = 1.18; 0.33-4.26). There were no observations of CVD among 53 who transitioned to exclusive ENDS use.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found no difference in CVD incidence by tobacco status over three 3 year intervals, even for tobacco quitters. It is possible that additional waves of PATH Study data, combined with information from other large longitudinal cohorts with careful tracking of ENDS use patterns may help to further clarify this relationship.

Responses to potential nicotine vaping product flavor restrictions among regular vapers using non-tobacco flavors: Findings from the 2020 ITC Smoking and Vaping Survey in Canada, England and the United States

INTRODUCTION

Some jurisdictions have implemented nicotine vaping product (NVP) flavor restrictions because of concerns about rising adolescent use. However, little is known how these restrictions may impact adult vapers. This study describes the level of support and predictive behavioral responses to a hypothetical NVP ban on non-tobacco flavors among regular adult vapers who only use flavors that would be banned.

METHODS

Data came from 851 regular vapers (all current or ex-smokers) participating in the 2020 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey in Canada, England, and the United States (US). A random sample of respondents in each country received and completed the questions about flavor bans: (1) do you support or oppose a ban on all non-tobacco flavors; and (2) what would you do if all flavors were banned, with the exception of tobacco in the US, and tobacco and menthol in Canada and England. Those who used tobacco-flavored or unflavored NVPs were excluded from all analyses, and additionally, vapers of menthol flavor in Canada and England were excluded from Aim 2.

RESULTS

Overall, 53.6% of vapers were strongly opposed to flavor bans, 28.2% were opposed, 9.3% were in support, 3.6% were in strong support, and 5.2% did not know. Predicted behavioral responses were: 28.8% would continue vaping an available flavor, 28.3% would find a way to get their banned flavor(s), 17.1% would stop vaping and smoke instead, 12.9% said that they would stop vaping and not smoke, and 12.9% do not know what they would do. Responses to a potential flavor ban largely varied by smoking and vaping status, and by the level of support of a flavor restriction policy.

CONCLUSIONS

At this time, it is not clear what net population-level consequences would occur if non-tobacco flavored NVPs were prohibited. While a majority of vapers in this study opposed this policy, and many vapers would not be willing to switch to available flavors, there was considerable variability in predicted behavioral responses.

Smokeless Tobacco Use and Prevalence of Cardiovascular Disease Among Males in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, Waves 1–4

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Oral smokeless tobacco (SLT) products are non-combusted forms of tobacco that can be dependence producing.

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SLT use may pose health risks to users such as cardiovascular disease (CVD) through various pathways including influencing hemodynamics, endothelial dysfunction, inflammation, insulin resistance, hyperlipidemia, and arrhythmogenesis.

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Past studies have suggested a small, elevated risk of CVD among SLT users compared to never tobacco users.

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This study advances the literature by exploring how the duration of regular SLT use relates to CVD prevalence.

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In this study of ≥ 40-year-old men only, we did not find a consistent dose–response trend for years of SLT use and prevalence of CVD.

The purpose of this period prevalence study is to compare the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in current/former established smokeless tobacco (SLT) users (ever SLT users who have used the product fairly regularly) to those who were: 1) never established cigarette smokers and SLT users, and 2) current/former established exclusive cigarette smokers (have smoked at least a 100 or more cigarettes in lifetime) only, adjusting for known risk factors for CVD. Analyses included 4,703 men ≥ 40 years of age who participated in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, Waves: 1–4, conducted between 2013 and 2017. Current users were those using SLT products daily or on some days, whereas former users had not used SLT and/or cigarettes in the past 12 months. CVD prevalence was defined as a self-reported diagnosis of congestive heart failure, stroke, or myocardial infarction. Among current/former established SLT users, years of use defined exposure history, while pack-years defined exposure history for smokers. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were reported with trend tests to examine dose–response associations. Current/former established exclusive SLT users were not significantly more likely to have had any CVD compared to never established cigarette and SLT users (OR = 1.7 [0.8–3.7]), or current/former established exclusive cigarette smokers (OR = 0.9 [0.5–1.8]). Current/former established exclusive cigarette smokers were more likely to have had any CVD compared to those who were never established cigarette and SLT users (OR = 1.6 [1.1–2.3]).

E-cigarette use and change in plans to quit cigarette smoking among adult smokers in the United States: Longitudinal findings from the PATH Study 2014-2019

INTRODUCTION

Much of the population-based e-cigarette use and cigarette cessation literature is restricted to smokers who have expressed intention to quit smoking, though experimental studies suggest e-cigarette use might motivate some smokers to change their quit intentions. We used U.S. nationally representative data to evaluate whether e-cigarette use by smokers initially not planning to ever quit is associated with change in plans to quit.

METHODS

Longitudinal Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study data collected between 2014 and 2019 were analyzed. Main analyses were conducted among adult daily cigarette smokers not currently using e-cigarettes with no plans to ever quit smoking (n = 2366 observations from n = 1532 individuals). Generalized estimating equations were used to evaluate the association between change in e-cigarette use and change in plans to quit smoking within the next six months, over three assessment pairs.

RESULTS

Daily cigarette smokers with no plans to quit had a higher rate of change to plan to quit if at follow-up they used e-cigarettes daily (41.4%, 95% CI: 27.1-57.3%) versus not at all (12.4%, 95% CI: 10.6-14.5%; aOR = 5.7, 95% CI: 2.9-11.2). Rate of change to plan to quit did not statistically differ between those who at follow-up used e-cigarettes some days versus not at all.

CONCLUSIONS

Among adult daily cigarette smokers initially not planning to ever quit, subsequent daily e-cigarette use is associated with subsequent plans to quit smoking. Population-level research on e-cigarette use that is focused on smokers already motivated to quit may limit a complete evaluation of the smoker population.

Awareness, trial and use of heated tobacco products among adult cigarette smokers and e-cigarette users: findings from the 2018 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate heated tobacco product (HTP) awareness, trial and current use among adult cigarette smokers and vaping product users in four countries with varying regulations governing HTP sales.

DESIGN

Data came from Wave 2 of the ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey, collected from February to July 2018. Respondents were current and former smokers and/or users of vaping products (18 years or older) from Canada (CA; n=3778), England (EN; n=4848), the USA (US; n=2846) and Australia (AU; n=1515). At the time of the survey, only Canada and England permitted the sale of contemporary HTPs (eg, IQOS).

RESULTS

Overall, 30.2% of respondents reported being aware of HTPs (CA=30.4%; EN=31.0%; US=30.2%; AU=27.4%; p=0.346), 2.4% had ever tried HTPs (CA=3.3%; EN=2.4%; US=2.0%; AU=0.9%; p=0.001) and 0.9% currently used HTPs at least monthly (CA=0.8%; EN=1.2%; US=0.7%; AU=0.2%; p<0.001). Trial and current use were higher among those who concurrently smoked and vaped (at least monthly) versus other nicotine use categories (trial: 10.9% v. 1.2%-2.0%, p<0.001; current use: 8.4% v. 0.1%-1.0%, p<0.001). In multivariable analyses, HTP awareness did not differ across countries, whereas odds of trial and current use were lower where HTPs were unavailable. Odds of HTP trial did not differ by regulatory environment when restricting analysis to HTP-aware concurrent smokers-vapers.

CONCLUSION

Approximately one third of respondents were aware of HTPs, even in the USA and Australia, where contemporary HTPs were not yet on the market. Trial and use were uncommon, except among concurrent smokers-vapers. Restrictions on availability may have limited HTP use generally, but less so for concurrent smokers-vapers.

Tobacco Treatment Outcomes for Hospital Patients With and Without Mental Health Diagnoses

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of mental health conditions is higher in cigarette smokers than nonsmokers. However, those with diagnosed mental health disorders are understudied within general inpatient hospital settings. This study seeks to evaluate how having a mental health diagnosis influences response to a brief opt-out inpatient tobacco treatment intervention.

METHODS

Data included 4,153 admitted patients who completed a tobacco treatment visit. Post-discharge self-reported abstinence was obtained via response to an automated call 1-month after discharge. Mental health co-morbidities were assessed by reviewing electronic medical records. Logistic regression was used to assess associations between having a mental health diagnosis and patients' smoking history, interest in quitting smoking, and post-discharge abstinence.

RESULTS

Overall 34.1% of patients were diagnosed with mental health disorders, most commonly depression or substance use disorders. Patients with a diagnosed mental health disorder were more likely to report a history of long-term heavy smoking and were less likely to express an interesting in remaining abstinent from smoking after hospitalization. An intent-to-treat analysis using logistic regression analysis found lower rates of self-reported smoking abstinence in those with a mental health disorder compared to those without (9 vs. 13.2%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with a history of mental health diagnoses, such as depression or substance use disorders, was associated with lower rates of smoking abstinence in patients after hospitalization. Hospital based opt-out smoking cessation programs have shown to be generally effective and efficient. However, certain subpopulations may require tailored intervention in order to improve treatment outcomes. Future research is needed to develop brief, effective tobacco treatment for hospital patients with comorbid mental health diagnoses.

Optimizing tobacco treatment delivery for people with HIV: trial protocol for a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

With advances in antiretroviral therapy, people with HIV (PWH) are living longer and are less likely to die from AIDS-related complications. Yet, prior research has shown that smoking is often not addressed in the context of HIV care, and few individuals are offered cessation treatment. Optimizing tobacco treatment delivery for PWH may increase engagement with evidence-based treatments and successful quit attempts.

METHODS

The current study is a type 1 hybrid effectiveness-implementation trial to evaluate the impact of a proactive, opt-out tobacco treatment intervention on cessation outcomes and advance understanding of key barriers and facilitators of implementation processes. A total of 230 PWH who smoke will be recruited from an infectious diseases clinic at an academic medical center and will be randomized to receive (1) treatment as usual (TAU) or (2) Proactive Outreach with Medication Opt-out for Tobacco Treatment Engagement (PrOMOTE). Primary outcomes include: biochemically verified 7-day point prevalence abstinence (PPA) rates, continuous abstinence (Weeks 9-12), and the number of 24-hour quit attempts at the end of study treatment (Week 12). Secondary outcomes include: participant reach (proportion reached out of contact attempts), implementation fidelity (including number of prescriptions written), participant adherence to prescribed pharmacotherapy, acceptability (participant and provider satisfaction with intervention delivery and content), and perceived barriers.

DISCUSSION

This study will examine a novel approach to optimizing tobacco treatment delivery for PWH. Integrating effectiveness and implementation results will help define best practices for engaging PWH with evidence-based tobacco treatment interventions. The intervention is low-cost, has the potential to be highly scalable, and could be translatable to other ambulatory HIV clinic settings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT05019495 (August 24, 2021).

Associations Between Noticing Nicotine Vaping Product Health Warning Labels, Harm Perceptions, and Use among adult vapers, current and former smokers. Findings From the 2018 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey

BACKGROUND

The number of countries mandating a nicotine addiction warning label ('warnings') on nicotine vaping products (NVPs) has been increasing. This study examined associations between noticing NVP warnings, perceptions of NVPs, and intentions to use NVPs.

METHODS

Cross-sectional analysis of 12,619 adult NVP users, cigarette smokers, concurrent users of both cigarettes and NVPs, and quitters who participated in the 2018 International Tobacco Control (ITC) Project Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey (England, Australia, Canada, US). Logistic regression analyses examined associations between noticing warnings in the past 30 days and perceptions of nicotine harm, NVP harm relative to cigarettes, and NVP addictiveness relative to cigarettes. Associations were also explored between noticing warnings and intentions to use NVPs.

RESULTS

Noticing warnings was higher among NVP users (18.8%) than non-users (2.1%). Noticing warnings was associated with perceiving nicotine to pose little or no harm to health among NVP users, but there was no association among non-users. There was little evidence of an association between noticing warnings and perceptions of NVP harms relative to smoking among NVP users and non-users. Noticing warnings was associated with perceiving NVPs as less addictive than cigarettes among non-users but not NVP users. Among exclusive smokers, noticing warnings was associated with intending to start using NVPs. Among NVP users, there was little evidence of an association between noticing warnings and intentions to continue using/stopping NVPs.

CONCLUSIONS

Noticing NVP warnings was not associated with increased NVP and nicotine harm perceptions or decreased intentions to use NVPs among adult smokers and vapers.

Association of e-Cigarette Use With Discontinuation of Cigarette Smoking Among Adult Smokers Who Were Initially Never Planning to Quit

IMPORTANCE

Cigarette smokers not planning to quit are often overlooked in population studies evaluating the risk-benefit potential of electronic nicotine delivery products (e-cigarettes).

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether e-cigarette use is associated with discontinuing cigarette smoking among smokers who were initially never planning to quit.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study used US nationally representative data from the longitudinal Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study (waves 2-5 conducted between October 2014 and November 2019), with participants evaluated in 3 pairs of interviews. Adult daily cigarette smokers initially not using e-cigarettes and with no plans to ever quit smoking for good (2489 observations from 1600 individuals) were included.

EXPOSURES

e-Cigarette use (ie, daily use, nondaily use, or no use) at follow-up interview among smokers not using e-cigarettes at baseline interview.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The main outcomes were discontinuation of cigarette smoking (ie, no cigarette smoking) and discontinuation of daily cigarette smoking (ie, no daily cigarette smoking) at follow-up interview. Generalized estimating equations were used to evaluate the association between the exposure and each outcome, controlling for demographic characteristics and cigarettes smoked per day at baseline interview; all estimates were weighted.

RESULTS

The weighted population of adult daily cigarette smokers who were not using e-cigarettes and had no plans to ever quit smoking, based on data from 1600 participants, was 56.1% male (95% CI, 53.4%-58.7%), 10.1% Hispanic (95% CI, 8.2%-12.3%), 10.1% non-Hispanic Black (95% CI, 8.7%-11.7%), 75.6% non-Hispanic White (95% CI, 72.9%-78.2%), and 4.2% of other non-Hispanic race (95% CI, 3.3%-5.4%); 29.3% were aged 55 to 69 years (95% CI, 26.2%-32.6%), 8.9% were aged 70 years or older (95% CI, 6.8%-11.5%), 36.8% did not graduate from high school (95% CI, 34.1%-39.6%), 55.2% had an annual household income of less than $25 000 (95% CI, 52.3%-58.1%), 37.6% smoked 20 to 29 cigarettes per day (95% CI, 34.7%-40.6%), and 12.7% smoked 30 or more cigarettes per day (95% CI, 10.9%-14.7%). Overall, 6.2% of the population (95% CI, 5.0%-7.5%) discontinued cigarette smoking. Discontinuation rates were higher among those who used e-cigarettes daily (28.0%; 95% CI, 15.2%-45.9%) compared with not at all (5.8%; 95% CI, 4.7%-7.2%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 8.11; 95% CI, 3.14-20.97). Furthermore, 10.7% (95% CI, 9.1%-12.5%) discontinued daily cigarette smoking, with higher rates of discontinuation observed among those who used e-cigarettes daily (45.5%; 95% CI, 27.4%-64.9%) compared with not at all (9.9%; 95% CI, 8.2%-11.8%; aOR, 9.67; 95% CI, 4.02-23.25). Nondaily e-cigarette use was not associated with cigarette discontinuation (aOR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.08-3.35) or daily cigarette discontinuation (aOR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.44-2.09).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study, daily e-cigarette use was associated with greater odds of cigarette discontinuation among smokers who initially had no plans to ever quit smoking. These findings support the consideration of smokers who are not planning to quit when evaluating the risk-benefit potential of e-cigarettes for smoking cessation in the population.

Age-Related Interactions on Key Theoretical Determinants of Smoking Cessation: Findings from the ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys (2016-2020)

BACKGROUND

This paper explores whether plans to quit, wanting to quit, and quit efficacy add predictive value over measures of habit strength and dependence in making quit attempts and/or attaining smoking abstinence.

AIMS AND METHODS

We used three waves of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey conducted in 2016, 2018, and 2020. Baseline daily smokers (N = 6710) who provided data for at least one wave-to-wave transition (W1 to W2, N = 3511 or W2 to W3, N = 3199) and provided outcome data at the next wave (follow-up) formed the analytic sample. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) logistic regression analyses examined predictors of quit attempts and abstinence at follow-up (1- and 6-month sustained abstinence).

RESULTS

Wanting and planning to quit were significantly positively associated with making quit attempts, but negatively associated with smoking abstinence. A significant interaction between the Heaviness of Smoking Index and age warranted an age-stratified analysis for both abstinence outcomes. Lower HSI predicted abstinence in only the younger smokers Motivation and plans to quit were positively associated with abstinence in younger smokers, but surprisingly were negatively associated with abstinence in older smokers. Quit efficacy was associated with abstinence in the older, but not the younger smokers.

CONCLUSIONS

Models of smoking abstinence are significantly improved by including motivational predictors of smoking. Age was an important moderator of the association between abstinence for both dependence and motivational variables.

IMPLICATIONS

The findings from this large cohort study indicate there are age-related differences in predictors of smoking abstinence but not quit attempts. These associations may reflect differential experiences of older and younger cohorts of smokers, which may have implications for interventions to motivate and assist smokers in quitting.

The Use of Expert Elicitation among Computational Modeling Studies in Health Research: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Expert elicitation (EE) has been used across disciplines to estimate input parameters for computational modeling research when information is sparse or conflictual.

OBJECTIVES

We conducted a systematic review to compare EE methods used to generate model input parameters in health research.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed and Web of Science.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY

Modeling studies that reported the use of EE as the source for model input probabilities were included if they were published in English before June 2021 and reported health outcomes.

DATA ABSTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Studies were classified as "formal" EE methods if they explicitly reported details of their elicitation process. Those that stated use of expert opinion but provided limited information were classified as "indeterminate" methods. In both groups, we abstracted citation details, study design, modeling methodology, a description of elicited parameters, and elicitation methods. Comparisons were made between elicitation methods.

STUDY APPRAISAL

Studies that conducted a formal EE were appraised on the reporting quality of the EE. Quality appraisal was not conducted for studies of indeterminate methods.

RESULTS

The search identified 1520 articles, of which 152 were included. Of the included studies, 40 were classified as formal EE and 112 as indeterminate methods. Most studies were cost-effectiveness analyses (77.6%). Forty-seven indeterminate method studies provided no information on methods for generating estimates. Among formal EEs, the average reporting quality score was 9 out of 16.

LIMITATIONS

Elicitations on nonhealth topics and those reported in the gray literature were not included.

CONCLUSIONS

We found poor reporting of EE methods used in modeling studies, making it difficult to discern meaningful differences in approaches. Improved quality standards for EEs would improve the validity and replicability of computational models.

HIGHLIGHTS

We find extensive use of expert elicitation for the development of model input parameters, but most studies do not provide adequate details of their elicitation methods.Lack of reporting hinders greater discussion of the merits and challenges of using expert elicitation for model input parameter development.There is a need to establish expert elicitation best practices and reporting guidelines.

Characterizing heated tobacco product use among adult cigarette smokers and nicotine vaping product users in the 2018 ITC Four Country Smoking & Vaping Survey

INTRODUCTION

Heated tobacco products (HTP) have diversified global tobacco markets, and user characteristics remain understudied. This study evaluated sociodemographic characteristics, nicotine-related perceptions and behaviors of current HTP users within a sample of adult (18+ years) nicotine users across four countries.

METHODS

Data were from current smokers or nicotine vaping product (NVP; known as "e-cigarettes") users from Canada, England, the United States and Australia (n=11,421) who participated in the 2018 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. Current (at-least-monthly) HTP users were characterized (n=441), and weighted multivariable logistic regressions examined correlates of HTP use.

RESULTS

Compared to non-users, current HTP users were younger (mean age: 44.4 vs 31.0 years; p<0.001) and had higher socioeconomic status (p<0.001). A majority of current HTP users used HTPs non-daily (daily: 40.3% vs non-daily: 59.7%). Most HTP users concurrently used both cigarettes and NVPs (90.5%). Among concurrent cigarette-HTP-NVP users, 36.2% used all three products daily. Use of other combusted tobacco products (cigars, cigarillos, pipe, waterpipe/hookah), cannabis, and binge drinking were each associated with current HTP use. HTP use was more common among smokers intending to quit within 6 months or reporting a quit attempt in the past 18 months, and vapers who had experienced negative side effects.

CONCLUSION

HTP users in this sample tended to be younger and more affluent. Most reported concurrent use of multiple nicotine products and other substances. Those cigarette smokers who used HTPs appeared more interested in smoking cessation, while some characteristics of concurrent HTP-NVP users were suggestive of dissatisfaction with NVPs.

IMPLICATIONS

Few studies have scrutinized characteristics of HTP early-adopters in emerging markets. Our results indicate that in 2018, characteristics of established nicotine users who adopted HTP use in four high-income Western countries mirror those of HTP users in East Asian markets (South Korea and Japan) where HTPs are popular. HTP users reported high levels of concurrent use of non-cigarette combusted tobacco products (e.g., cigars, pipe tobacco). These findings point to the need for future longitudinal studies of HTP use given the implications of those use patterns on the harm reduction potential of HTPs. HTP user characteristics may yield important information to consider in regulation of these products.

State Tobacco Excise Taxation, Comprehensive Smoke-free Air Laws, and Tobacco Control Appropriations as Predictors of Smoking Cessation Success in the United States

The purpose of the present study was (1) to examine demographic differences between smokers who successfully quit (n = 1809), who relapsed (n = 6548), and who did not attempt to quit (n = 11 102) within the last year, and (2) to examine state-level tobacco policies/programs as predictors of quit success. Data were utilized from the 2014-2015 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey, which were paired with 2014 data on taxation, appropriations, and smoke-free air laws. As compared with smokers who relapsed, those who successfully quit were more likely to be white, married, more highly educated, of higher income, and heavier smokers. Compared with those who did not attempt to quit, those who attempted to quit, regardless of success, were younger and more likely to be Hispanic. State comprehensive smoke-free air laws and tobacco excise taxation significantly predicted quit success. Thus, expansions of these policies should be considered to promote successful quitting.

Validation of an Index for Functionally Important Respiratory Symptoms among Adults in the Nationally Representative Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, 2014-2016

The purpose of this study is to validate the seven-item wheezing module from the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Children (ISAAC) in the nationally representative Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study. Adult participants with complete Wave 2-3 data were selected, including those with asthma but excluding those with COPD and other respiratory diseases (n = 16,295). We created a nine-point respiratory symptom index from the ISAAC questions, assessed the reliability of the index, and examined associations with self-reported asthma diagnosis. Threshold values were assessed for association with functional outcomes. The weighted prevalence for one or more respiratory symptom was 18.0% (SE = 0.5) for adults without asthma, 70.1% (SE = 1.3) for those with lifetime asthma, 75.7% (SE = 3.7) for adults with past-year asthma not on medications, and 92.6% (SE = 1.6) for those on medications. Cronbach's alpha for the respiratory symptom index was 0.86. Index scores of ≥2 or ≥3 yielded functionally important respiratory symptom prevalence of 7-10%, adequate sensitivity and specificity for identifying asthma, and consistent independent associations with all functional outcomes and tobacco use variables. Respiratory symptom index scores of ≥2 or ≥3 are indicative of functionally important respiratory symptoms and could be used to assess the relationship between tobacco use and respiratory health.

Age as a predictor of quit attempts and quit success in smoking cessation: findings from the International Tobacco Control Four-Country survey (2002-14)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Past research has found that young smokers are more likely to make quit attempts; however, there are conflicting findings regarding age and quit success. This study examined the degree to which smoker age is related to making quit attempts and quit success.

DESIGN

Ten waves of the International Tobacco Control Policy Cohort survey (ITC-4C) collected between 2002 and 2014, with nine wave-to-wave transitions with predictors at the first wave predicting quit attempts and success by the next wave.

SETTING

Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

Data from 15 874 smokers categorized into four age groups at baseline (18-24, 25-39, 40-54 and 55+ years).

MEASUREMENTS

Age, quit attempts and success (defined as ≥ 30 days abstinence confirmed, if possible, on a third wave for recent attempts).

FINDINGS

Older smokers were more likely to smoke daily (χ2  = 1557.86, r = 0.136, P < 0.001) than younger smokers. Daily smokers were less likely to report quit attempts (38.1 versus 58.2%) and to achieve 30 days of abstinence (22.9 versus 34.3%) than non-daily smokers. Older daily smokers were less likely to make quit attempts [0.61, confidence interval (CI) = 0.54-0.70, P < 0.001], even after controlling for indicators of nicotine dependence, country, sex, education, income, relationship status and household composition, than younger smokers. Younger smokers (< 25) were more likely to succeed for at least 30 days of abstinence, but only when compared with those aged 40-54 (OR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.68-0.99). However, when controlling for heaviness of smoking the age effect disappeared. Significant interactions with age were found between age and intention when predicting quit attempts, and age and heaviness of smoking when predicting quit success.

CONCLUSIONS

An international cohort study indicates that young smokers are more likely to attempt to quit and appear to have similar levels of success in abstaining from smoking compared with older smokers when controlling for dependence. Quit success in all ages is most predicted by lower levels of nicotine dependence.

The Illegal Experimental Tobacco Marketplace I: Effects of Vaping Product Bans

OBJECTIVES

Banning vaping products may have unintended outcomes, such as increased demand for illegal products. This study experimentally examined the effects of a vaping ban and a flavored vaping ban on the probability of purchasing illicit vaping products, and factors affecting purchasing from a hypothetical illegal marketplace.

METHODS

A crowdsourced sample of exclusive cigarette smokers, exclusive e-cigarette users, and frequent dual users (n = 150) completed hypothetical purchasing trials in an Experimental Tobacco Marketplace under three conditions (no ban, vaping ban, and flavored vaping ban). Participants chose to purchase in a hypothetical legal experimental tobacco marketplace (LETM) or illegal experimental tobacco marketplace (IETM). Vaping products were available in each marketplace depending on the condition. Other tobacco products were always available in the LETM. A hypothetical illicit purchase task with five fine amounts assessed the effect of monetary penalties.

RESULTS

Participants from all groups were more likely to purchase from the IETM when product availability in the LETM was more restricted, with e-cigarette users being most affected. The likelihood of purchasing illegal products was systematically decreased as monetary penalties associated with the IETM increased, with e-cigarette users showing greater persistence in defending their illicit purchases.

CONCLUSIONS

Restricting vaping products from the marketplace may shift preference towards purchasing vaping products in the illegal marketplace. Nevertheless, penalties imposed on consumer's behavior might be effective in preventing illicit trade. The IETM is a methodological extension that supports the utility and flexibility of the ETM as a framework for understanding the impact of different tobacco regulatory policies.

IMPLICATIONS

This study suggests that limiting or banning vaping products as a possible strategy to reduce the adverse effects of vaping products could result in some tobacco-users seeking banned products from illegal sources. Monetary fines were shown to reduce illegal purchases. Therefore, policymakers should consider implementing strategies that may mitigate illegal purchases.

Self-Reported Quit Aids and Assistance Used By Smokers At Their Most Recent Quit Attempt: Findings from the 2020 International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey

INTRODUCTION

This study retrospectively describes smoking cessation aids, cessation services, and other types of assistance used by current and ex-smokers at their last quit attempt in four high-income countries.

AIMS AND METHODS

Data are from the Wave 3 (2020) International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey in Australia, Canada, England, and the United States (US). Eligible respondents were daily smokers or past-daily recent ex-smokers who made a quit attempt/quit smoking in the last 24-months, resulting in 3614 respondents. Self-reported quit aids/assistance included: nicotine vaping products (NVPs), nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), other pharmacological therapies (OPT: varenicline/bupropion/cytisine), tobacco (noncombustible: heated tobacco product/smokeless tobacco), cessation services (quitline/counseling/doctor), other cessation support (e.g., mobile apps/website/pamphlets, etc.), or no aid.

RESULTS

Among all respondents, at last quit attempt, 28.8% used NRT, 28.0% used an NVP, 12.0% used OPT, 7.8% used a cessation service, 1.7% used a tobacco product, 16.5% other cessation support, and 38.6% used no aid/assistance. Slightly more than half of all smokers and ex-smokers (57.2%) reported using any type of pharmacotherapy (NRT or OPT) and/or an NVP, half-used NRT and/or an NVP (49.9%), and 38.4% used any type of pharmacotherapy (NRT and/or OPT). A quarter of smokers/ex-smokers used a combination of aids. NVPs and NRT were the most prevalent types of cessation aids used in all four countries; however, NRT was more commonly used in Australia relative to NVPs, and in England, NVPs were more commonly used than NRT. The use of NVPs or NRT was more evenly distributed in Canada and the US.

CONCLUSIONS

It appears that many smokers are still trying to quit unassisted, rather than utilizing cessation aids or other forms of assistance. Of those who did use assistance, NRT and NVPs were the most common method, which appears to suggest that nicotine substitution is important for smokers when trying to quit smoking.

IMPLICATIONS

Clinical practice guidelines in a number of countries state that the most effective smoking cessation method is a combination of pharmacotherapy and face-to-face behavioral support by a health professional. Most quit attempts however are made unassisted, particularly without the use of government-approved cessation medications. This study found that about two in five daily smokers used approved cessation medications (nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) or other approved pharmacotherapies, such as varenicline). Notably, nicotine substitution in the form of either NRT and nicotine vaping products (NVPs) were the most common method of cessation assistance (used by one in two respondents), but the proportion using NRT and/or NVPs varied by country. Few smokers who attempted to quit utilized cessation services such as stop-smoking programs/counseling or quitlines, despite that these types of support are effective in helping smokers manage withdrawals and cravings. Primary healthcare professionals should ask their patients about smoking and offer them evidence-based treatment, as well as be prepared to provide smokers with a referral to trained cessation counselors, particularly when it comes to tailoring intensive treatment programs for regular daily smokers. Additionally, healthcare providers should be prepared to discuss the use of NVPs, particularly if smokers are seeking advice about NVPs, wanting to try/or already using an NVP to quit smoking, have failed repeatedly to quit with other cessation methods, and/or if they do not want to give up tobacco/nicotine use completely.

Patterns of Non-Cigarette Tobacco and Nicotine Use Among Current Cigarette Smokers and Recent Quitters: Findings From the 2020 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey

INTRODUCTION

This study explores patterns of use of non-cigarette tobacco and nicotine products among adult cigarette smokers and recent ex-smokers. Along with cigarette smoking status we explore differences as a function of countries with different product regulations, gender, and age.

METHODS

Data came from the ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Wave 3 Survey conducted between February-June 2020. The analytic sample consisted of 9112 current cigarette smokers (at least monthly) and 1184 recent ex-smokers (quit cigarettes ≤ 2 years) from Australia, Canada, England, and the United States. Respondents were asked about their cigarette smoking and current use of the following non-cigarette products: combustible tobacco (cigars, cigarillos, pipe, waterpipe); noncombustible tobacco (smokeless tobacco, and heated tobacco products [HTPs]); and non-tobacco nicotine products (nicotine vaping products [NVPs], nicotine replacement therapy [NRT], and nicotine pouches).

RESULTS

Overall, NVPs (13.7%) and NRT (10.9%) were the most reported nicotine products used, followed by cigars (5.3%), cigarillos (4.2%), and HTPs (3.5%). More than 21% current and recent ex-smokers of cigarettes reported using a non-tobacco nicotine product and noncombustible product, with respondents in England reporting the highest levels of use (>26%). Males, younger respondents, and current non-daily cigarette smokers were more likely to use non-cigarette nicotine products. Notably, 11.6% of ex-cigarette smokers were using other combustible tobacco.

CONCLUSION

Considerable percentages of current cigarette smokers and ex-smokers use non-cigarette nicotine products, and there are unexpectedly high levels of use of other combustible products by those recent ex-smokers of cigarettes which is concerning and has important implications for definitions of smoking cessation.

IMPLICATIONS

The tobacco product market has evolved to include new products which add to existing non-cigarette tobacco products creating a much more diverse nicotine market. This brief report provides a snapshot of use of various combustible and noncombustible nicotine-containing products among current cigarette smokers and recent ex-smokers in four western countries. Our results indicate that use of non-cigarette tobacco and nicotine products among these cigarette smokers and recent ex-smokers is not low, particularly among males, younger and non-daily cigarette smokers. Use of other combustible tobacco among respondents that recently quit cigarette smoking is concerning and has important implications for definitions of smoking cessation. Increased emphasis on researching non-cigarette nicotine product use is warranted in tobacco control generally and smoking cessation in particular.

Menthol and Mint Cigarettes and Cigars: Initiation and Progression in Youth, Young Adults and Adults in Waves 1-4 of the PATH Study, 2013-2017

INTRODUCTION

This study examined in youth (12-17 years), young adults (18-24 years), and adults (25+ years): (1) the prevalence of the first menthol cigarette and menthol/mint cigar use among new tobacco users; (2) association between the first menthol/mint use, subsequent tobacco use, and nicotine dependence ~1 year later compared with the first non-menthol/mint use.

AIMS AND METHODS

Longitudinal analysis of data from Waves 1 to 4 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study (2013-2017; 10 086 youth and 21 281 adults). Main outcome measures were past 12-month and past 30-day cigarette and cigar use, and nicotine dependence.

RESULTS

Youth and young adult new cigarette users are more likely to smoke a menthol cigarette or indicate that they do not know the flavor compared with adults aged 25+. A greater proportion of adults aged 25+ first used menthol/mint-flavored cigars (13.4%) compared with youth (8.5%) and young adults (7.4%). Among young adults, first use of a menthol cigarette is associated with past 12-month use of cigarettes at the subsequent wave and first use of any menthol/mint-flavored cigars is associated with past 30-day use of these products at the subsequent wave in both youth and young adults. In youth and adults, there were no significant relationships between first use of a menthol/mint cigarette or cigar and nicotine dependence scores at a subsequent wave in multivariable analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

The first use of menthol/mint cigarettes and cigars is associated with subsequent cigarette and cigar use in young people aged 12-24.

IMPLICATIONS

This study examined the relationship between initiation with menthol cigarettes and menthol/mint cigars, subsequent tobacco use, and nicotine dependence in US youth, young adults, and adults who participated in Waves 1-4 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study. New use of menthol cigarettes was associated with greater past 12-month cigarette use in young adults and new use of menthol/mint-flavored cigars was associated with greater past 30-day cigar use in youth and young adults compared with non-menthol use. Initiation with menthol/mint cigarette and cigar products may lead to subsequent use of those products.

Which tobacco control policies do smokers support? Findings from the International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey

As governments consider policy action to reduce smoking, a key factor in creating political will is the level of public support, particularly among smokers who are most affected by the policies. The goal of this paper is to assess and compare the level of support in Canada, the United States, England, and Australia for five smoking control policies: 1) banning menthol in cigarettes, 2) banning cigarette additives, 3) reducing nicotine in cigarettes to make them less addictive, 4) raising the minimum age to purchase cigarettes to 21 years and older, and 5) requiring pictorial warning labels on cigarette packs (examined in the US only). Data for these analyses come from 8165 daily cigarette smokers who responded to the 2016 International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey. In all countries, the highest level of support was for raising the legal age for purchase to 21 years and older (62-70%) and reducing the nicotine content of cigarettes to make them less addictive (57-70%). Smokers who were less dependent on cigarettes and those expressing interest in quitting were more likely to support all policies. When asked how they would respond to a nicotine reduction policy, the most common response given was to try the non-nicotine cigarettes to see how they liked them (42-48%), with the next most common response being to quit smoking entirely (16-24%). The high level of support for these proposed policies among daily smokers provides important evidence for policymakers to counteract claims that such policies would be unpopular.