Association of Genetic Variation With Cirrhosis: A Multi-Trait Genome-Wide Association and Gene-Environment Interaction Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In contrast to most other common diseases, few genetic variants have been identified that impact risk of cirrhosis. We aimed to identify new genetic variants that predispose to cirrhosis, to test whether such variants, aggregated into a polygenic score, enable genomic risk stratification, and to test whether alcohol intake or body mass index interacts with polygenic predisposition.

METHODS

We conducted a multi-trait genome-wide association study combining cirrhosis and alanine aminotransferase levels performed in 5 discovery studies (UK Biobank, Vanderbilt BioVU, Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, and 2 case-control studies including 4829 individuals with cirrhosis and 72,705 controls and 362,539 individuals with alanine aminotransferase levels). Identified variants were replicated in 3 studies (Partners HealthCare Biobank, FinnGen, and Biobank Japan including 3554 individuals with cirrhosis and 343,826 controls). A polygenic score was tested in Partners HealthCare Biobank.

RESULTS

Five previously reported and 7 newly identified genetic variants were associated with cirrhosis in both the discovery studies multi-trait genome-wide association study (P < 5 × 10^-8) and the replication studies (P < .05), including a missense variant in the APOE gene and a noncoding variant near EFN1A. These 12 variants were used to generate a polygenic score. Among Partners HealthCare Biobank individuals, high polygenic score-defined as the top quintile of the distribution-was associated with significantly increased risk of cirrhosis (odds ratio, 2.26; P < .001) and related comorbidities compared with the lowest quintile. Risk was even more pronounced among those with extreme polygenic risk (top 1% of the distribution, odds ratio, 3.16; P < .001). The impact of extreme polygenic risk was substantially more pronounced in those with elevated alcohol consumption or body mass index. Modeled as risk by age 75 years, probability of cirrhosis with extreme polygenic risk was 13.7%, 20.1%, and 48.2% among individuals with no or modest, moderate, and increased alcohol consumption, respectively (P_interaction < .001). Similarly, probability among those with extreme polygenic risk was 6.5%, 10.3%, and 19.5% among individuals with normal weight, overweight, and obesity, respectively (P_interaction < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Twelve independent genetic variants, 7 of which are newly identified in this study, conferred risk for cirrhosis. Aggregated into a polygenic score, these variants identified a subset of the population at substantially increased risk who are most susceptible to the hepatotoxic effects of excess alcohol consumption or obesity.

Association of Inflammatory and Insulinemic Potential of Diet and Lifestyle with Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

We prospectively examined the extent to which greater inflammatory and insulinemic potential of diet and lifestyle are associated with the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in two nationwide cohorts.

METHODS

Five kinds of pattern scores, including the empirical dietary inflammatory pattern (EDIP), empirical dietary index for hyperinsulinemia (EDIH) and insulin resistance (EDIR), empirical lifestyle pattern score for hyperinsulinemia (ELIH) and insulin resistance (ELIR) were calculated. Multivariable hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Cox regression.

RESULTS

After an average follow-up of 25.6 years among 119,316 participants, 142 incident HCC cases were documented. Higher adherence to EDIP (HR by comparing extreme tertiles: 2.03; 95% CI, 1.31-3.16; P trend = 0.001), EDIH (HR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.06-2.43; P trend = 0.02), and EDIR (HR, 1.62; 95% CI: 1.08-2.42; P trend = 0.02) was associated with increased risk of HCC. Likewise, participants with higher scores of ELIH (HR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.25-2.87; P trend = 0.001) and ELIR (HR, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.34-3.14, P trend = 0.0004) had higher risk of developing HCC. Additional adjustment for diabetes mellitus and/or body mass index attenuated the magnitude of the associations, indicating that diabetes and/or adiposity may partly mediate the association of these patterns with HCC risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that inflammation and insulin resistance/hyperinsulinemia are potential mechanisms linking dietary or lifestyle factors and HCC development.

IMPACT

Inflammation and insulin resistance/hyperinsulinemia may partly mediate the association of diet and other lifestyles with HCC development, and interventions to reduce the adverse effect of pro-inflammatory and hyperinsulinemic diet and lifestyle may reduce HCC risk.

Association Between Liver Fat and Bone Density is Confounded by General and Visceral Adiposity in a Community-Based Cohort

OBJECTIVE

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with low bone mineral density (BMD); however, it is not known whether early-stage NAFLD may be associated with BMD after accounting for BMI or visceral adipose tissue (VAT).

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study of 3,462 Framingham Heart Study participants who underwent computed tomographic measurement of liver fat, VAT volume, volumetric spine BMD, vertebral cross-sectional area (CSA), and vertebral compressive strength. This study excluded heavy alcohol consumers. Multivariable linear regression models were used to assess the association between NAFLD and volumetric BMD, CSA, and vertebral compressive strength after accounting for covariates, including BMI or VAT.

RESULTS

A total of 2,253 participants (mean age, 51.2  [SD 10.7] years; 51.1% women) were included. In multivariable-adjusted models, positive associations between NAFLD and integral BMD, trabecular BMD, and vertebral compressive strength were observed. However, results were attenuated and no longer significant after additionally adjusting for BMI or VAT. NAFLD was observed to be weakly associated with a lower vertebral CSA in adjusted models.

CONCLUSIONS

In a community-based cohort, the associations between NAFLD and BMD and vertebral strength were confounded by BMI and VAT. However, NAFLD was associated with a reduced vertebral CSA in adjusted models.

Inflammatory bowel disease and risk of severe COVID-19: A nationwide population-based cohort study in Sweden

BACKGROUND

There are concerns that individuals with chronic immune-mediated diseases are at increased risk of COVID-19 and related severe adverse outcome, including intensive care admission or death. We aimed to explore the absolute and relative risk of severe COVID-19 in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD).

METHODS

This population-based cohort study used nationwide registers in Sweden, with 67,292 individuals with a diagnosis of IBD 1969-2017 (Crohn's disease, n = 21,599; ulcerative colitis: n = 43,622; IBD-unclassified: n = 2071) and alive on 1 February 2020. Patients with IBD were matched to up to five controls from the general population (n = 297,910). Cox regression estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for (i) hospital admission with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 as the primary diagnosis, and (ii) severe COVID-19 (composite outcome consisting of (a) COVID-19 intensive care admission, or (b) death from COVID-19 or (c) death within 30 days of COVID-19 hospital admission), were calculated. Analyses were conditioned on age, sex, calendar period, and county and adjusted for other comorbidities.

RESULTS

Between 1 February and 31 July 2020, 179 (0.27%) IBD patients and 500 (0.17%) general population controls were admitted to hospital with COVID-19 (adjusted HR [aHR] = 1.43; 95% CI = 1.19-1.72). The corresponding numbers for severe COVID-19 was 65 (0.10%) and 183 (0.06%; aHR = 1.11; 95% CI = 0.81-1.52). Adjusted HRs were similar in Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. In a propensity score-matched model taking comorbidity into account until 2016, the increased risk for COVID-19 hospital admission remained (aHR = 1.32; 1.12-1.56), but there was no increased risk of severe COVID-19 (aHR = 1.12; 0.85-1.47).

CONCLUSIONS

While individuals with IBD were more likely to be admitted to hospital for COVID-19 than the general population, the risk of severe COVID-19 was not higher.

Plant-Based and Animal-Based Low-Carbohydrate Diets and Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Among US Men and Women

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Little is known about the role of low-carbohydrate diets (LCDs) in the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We prospectively evaluated the associations between plant-based and animal-based LCDs and risk of HCC in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS).

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Dietary intake was assessed every 4 years using validated food frequency questionnaires. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). HRs are shown for a 1-standard deviation (SD) increment with variables modeled as continuous. During 3,664,769 person-years of follow-up, there were 156 incident HCC cases. Although there were no associations between overall or animal-based LCD score and risk of HCC, plant-based LCD score was inversely associated with HCC risk (HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.70-0.98; P_trend  = 0.03). Carbohydrate intake, especially from refined grains (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.00-1.39; P_trend  = 0.04), was positively, while plant fat (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.65-0.95; P_trend  = 0.01) was inversely associated with HCC risk. Substituting 5% of energy from plant fat and protein for carbohydrate (HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.58-0.93; P_trend  = 0.01) or refined grains (HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.55-0.90; P_trend  = 0.006) was associated with lower HCC risk. In conclusion, a plant-based LCD and dietary restriction of carbohydrate from refined grains were associated with a lower risk of HCC. Substituting plant fat and protein for carbohydrate, particularly refined grains, may decrease HCC incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support a potential benefit in emphasizing plant sources of fat and protein in the diet for HCC primary prevention; additional studies that carefully consider hepatitis B and C virus infections and chronic liver diseases are needed to confirm our findings.

Aspirin Use Is Associated with a Reduced Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third-leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide, with a growing incidence and poor prognosis. While some recent studies suggest an inverse association between aspirin use and reduced HCC incidence, other data are conflicting. To date, the precise magnitude of risk reduction-and whether there are dose-dependent and duration-dependent associations-remains unclear. To provide an updated and comprehensive assessment of the association between aspirin use and incident HCC risk, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of all observational studies published through September 2020. Using random-effects meta-analysis, we calculated the pooled relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between aspirin use and incident HCC risk. Where data were available, we evaluated HCC risk according to the defined daily dose of aspirin use. Among 2,389,019 participants, and 20,479 cases of incident HCC, aspirin use was associated with significantly lower HCC risk (adjusted RR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.51-0.73; P ≤ 0.001; I2 = 90.4%). In subgroup analyses, the magnitude of benefit associated with aspirin was significantly stronger in studies that adjusted for concurrent statin and/or metformin use (RR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.28-0.64) versus those that did not (P heterogeneity = 0.02), studies that accounted for cirrhosis (RR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.45-0.52) versus those that did not (P heterogeneity = 0.02), and studies that confirmed HCC through imaging/biopsy (RR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.15-0.58) compared with billing codes (P heterogeneity < 0.001). In four studies, each defined daily dose was associated with significantly lower HCC risk (RR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.97-0.98), corresponding to an 8.4% risk reduction per year of aspirin use. Conclusion: In this comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis, aspirin use was associated with a significant reduction in HCC risk. These benefits appeared to increase with increasing dose and duration of aspirin use.

Weight gain during early adulthood, trajectory of body shape and the risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: A prospective cohort study among women

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Obesity is established as a major risk factor for the development of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). However, the influence of dynamic changes in adiposity over the life course on NAFLD risk remains poorly understood.

METHODS

We collected data from 110,054 women enrolled in the Nurses' Health Study II cohort. Early adulthood weight was ascertained at age 18 years, and weight gain since early adulthood was defined prospectively every 2 years. We used a group-based modeling approach to identify five trajectories of body shape from age 5 years up to age 50 years. NAFLD was defined by physician-confirmed diagnoses of fatty liver, after excluding excess alcohol intake and viral hepatitis, using validated approaches.

RESULTS

We documented 3798 NAFLD cases over a total of 20 years of follow-up. Compared to women who maintained stable weight (±2 kg), women with ≥20 kg of adulthood weight gain had the multivariable aHR of 6.96 (95% CI, 5.27-9.18), and this remained significant after further adjusting for early adulthood BMI and updated BMI (both P trend <0.0001). Compared to women with a medium-stable body shape trajectory, the multivariable aHRs for NAFLD were, 2.84 (95% CI, 2.50-3.22) for lean-marked increase, 2.60 (95% CI, 2.27-2.98) for medium-moderate increase, and 3.39 (95% CI, 2.95-3.89) for medium-marked increase.

CONCLUSIONS

Both early adulthood weight gain and lifetime body shape trajectory were significantly and independently associated with excess risk of developing NAFLD in mid-life. Maintaining both lean and stable weight throughout life may offer the greatest benefit for the prevention of NAFLD.

Lifestyle and Environmental Approaches for the Primary Prevention of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Patients with chronic liver disease are at increased risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Most patients diagnosed with HCC have limited treatment options and a poor overall prognosis, with a 5-year survival less than 15%. Preventing the development of HCC represents the most important strategy. However, current guidelines lack specific recommendations for primary prevention. Lifestyle factors may be central in the pathogenesis of HCC, and primary prevention strategies focused on lifestyle modification could represent an important approach to the prevention of HCC. Both experimental and epidemiologic studies have identified promising chemopreventive agents for the primary prevention of HCC.

Associations between reproductive factors and biliary tract cancers in women from the Biliary Tract Cancers Pooling Project

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Gallbladder cancer (GBC) is known to have a female predominance while other biliary tract cancers (BTCs) have a male predominance. However, the role of female reproductive factors in BTC etiology remains unclear.

METHODS

We pooled data from 19 studies of >1.5 million women participating in the Biliary Tract Cancers Pooling Project to examine the associations of parity, age at menarche, reproductive years, and age at menopause with BTC. Associations for age at menarche and reproductive years with BTC were analyzed separately for Asian and non-Asian women. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models, stratified by study.

RESULTS

During 21,681,798 person-years of follow-up, 875 cases of GBC, 379 of intrahepatic bile duct cancer (IHBDC), 450 of extrahepatic bile duct cancer (EHBDC), and 261 of ampulla of Vater cancer (AVC) occurred. High parity was associated with risk of GBC (HR ≥5 vs. 0 births 1.72; 95% CI 1.25-2.38). Age at menarche (HR per year increase 1.15; 95% CI 1.06-1.24) was associated with GBC risk in Asian women while reproductive years were associated with GBC risk (HR per 5 years 1.13; 95% CI 1.04-1.22) in non-Asian women. Later age at menarche was associated with IHBDC (HR 1.19; 95% CI 1.09-1.31) and EHBDC (HR 1.11; 95% CI 1.01-1.22) in Asian women only.

CONCLUSION

We observed an increased risk of GBC with increasing parity. Among Asian women, older age at menarche was associated with increased risk for GBC, IHBDC, and EHBDC, while increasing reproductive years was associated with GBC in non-Asian women. These results suggest that sex hormones have distinct effects on cancers across the biliary tract that vary by geography.

LAY SUMMARY

Our findings show that the risk of gallbladder cancer is increased among women who have given birth (especially women with 5 or more children). In women from Asian countries, later age at menarche increases the risk of gallbladder cancer, intrahepatic bile duct cancer and extrahepatic bile duct cancer. We did not see this same association in women from Western countries. Age at menopause was not associated with the risk of any biliary tract cancers.

Antibiotic use and the development of inflammatory bowel disease: a national case-control study in Sweden

BACKGROUND

Use of antibiotics in early life has been linked with childhood inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), but data for adults are mixed, and based on smaller investigations that did not compare risk among siblings with shared genetic or environmental risk factors. We aimed to investigate the association between antibiotic therapy and IBD in a large, population-based study.

METHODS

In this prospective case-control study, we identified people living in Sweden aged 16 years or older, with a diagnosis of IBD based on histology and at least one diagnosis code for IBD or its subtypes (ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease). We identified consecutive patients with incident IBD from the ESPRESSO (Epidemiology Strengthened by histoPathology Reports in Sweden) study, cross-referenced with the Swedish Patient Register and the Prescribed Drug Register. We accrued data for cumulative antibiotic dispensations until 1 year before time of matching for patients and up to five general population controls per patient (matched on the basis of age, sex, county, and calendar year). We also included unaffected full siblings as a secondary control group. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% CIs for diagnosis of incident IBD.

FINDINGS

We identified 23 982 new patients with IBD (15 951 ulcerative colitis, 7898 Crohn's disease, 133 unclassified IBD) diagnosed between Jan 1, 2007, and Dec 31, 2016. 117 827 matched controls and 28 732 siblings were also identified. After adjusting for several risk factors, aOR in patients who had used antibiotics versus those who had never used antibiotics was 1·88 (95% CI 1·79-1·98) for diagnosis of incident IBD, 1·74 (1·64-1·85) for ulcerative colitis, and 2·27 (2·06-2·49) for Crohn's disease. aOR was higher in patients who had received one antibiotic dispensation (1·11, 1·07-1·15), two antibiotic dispensations (1·38, 1·32-1·44), and three or more antibiotic dispensations (1·55, 1·49-1·61) than patients who had none. Increased risk was noted for ulcerative colitis (aOR with three or more antibiotic dispensations 1·47, 95% CI 1·40-1·54) and Crohn's disease (1·64, 1·53-1·76) with higher estimates corresponding to broad-spectrum antibiotics. Similar but attenuated results were observed when siblings were used as the reference group, with an aOR of 1·35 (95% CI 1·28-1·43) for patients who had received three or more dispensations, compared with general population controls.

INTERPRETATION

Higher cumulative exposure to systemic antibiotic therapy, particularly treatments with greater spectrum of microbial coverage, may be associated with a greater risk of new-onset IBD and its subtypes. The association between antimicrobial treatment and IBD did not appear to differ when predisposed siblings were used as the reference controls. Our findings, if substantiated by longer-term prospective studies in humans or mechanistic preclinical investigations, suggest the need to further emphasise antibiotic stewardship to prevent the rise in dysbiosis-related chronic diseases, including IBD.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health. Crohn's and Colitis Foundation.

Brief Report: Relationship Between Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Cardiovascular Disease in Persons With HIV

BACKGROUND

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and HIV are independently associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the factors associated with NAFLD in persons living with HIV (PWH) and whether CVD is more frequent in PWH with NAFLD are currently unknown.

METHODS

From the Partners HealthCare Research Patient Data Registry, we identified PWH with and without NAFLD between 2010 and 2017. NAFLD was defined using validated histological or radiographic criteria. CVD was defined by an ICD-9 diagnosis of coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, peripheral vascular disease, heart failure, transient ischemic attack, or stroke and was confirmed by clinician review. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to examine the relationship between NAFLD and CVD.

RESULTS

Compared with PWH without NAFLD (n = 135), PWH with NAFLD (n = 97) had higher body mass index and more frequently had hypertension, obstructive sleep apnea, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, coronary artery disease, and CVD (P < 0.01 for all). PWH with NAFLD were also more likely to have CD4 T-cell counts (CD4) <200 cells/mm. In multivariable models, the presence of NAFLD was significantly associated with CVD (adjusted odds ratio 3.08, 95% confidence interval: 1.37 to 6.94) and CD4 <200 cells/mm (adjusted odds ratio 4.49, 95% confidence interval: 1.74 to 11.55).

CONCLUSION

In PWH, CVD was independently associated with prevalent NAFLD after controlling for traditional CVD risk factors. NAFLD was also associated with CD4 <200 cells/mm, suggesting that immune dysfunction may be related to NAFLD. Both CVD and low CD4 count as risk factors for NAFLD require prospective evaluation.

Associations Between Prediagnostic Concentrations of Circulating Sex Steroid Hormones and Liver Cancer Among Postmenopausal Women

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In almost all countries, incidence rates of liver cancer (LC) are 100%-200% higher in males than in females. However, this difference is predominantly driven by hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), which accounts for 75% of LC cases. Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) accounts for 12% of cases and has rates only 30% higher in males. Hormones are hypothesized to underlie observed sex differences. We investigated whether prediagnostic circulating hormone and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) levels were associated with LC risk, overall and by histology, by leveraging resources from five prospective cohorts.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Seven sex steroid hormones and SHBG were quantitated using gas chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry and competitive electrochemiluminescence immunoassay, respectively, from baseline serum/plasma samples of 191 postmenopausal female LC cases (HCC, n = 83; ICC, n = 56) and 426 controls, matched on sex, cohort, age, race/ethnicity, and blood collection date. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between a one-unit increase in log₂ hormone value (approximate doubling of circulating concentration) and LC were calculated using multivariable-adjusted conditional logistic regression. A doubling in the concentration of 4-androstenedione (4-dione) was associated with a 50% decreased LC risk (OR = 0.50; 95% CI = 0.30-0.82), whereas SHBG was associated with a 31% increased risk (OR = 1.31; 95% CI = 1.05-1.63). Examining histology, a doubling of estradiol was associated with a 40% increased risk of ICC (OR = 1.40; 95% CI = 1.05-1.89), but not HCC (OR = 1.12; 95% CI = 0.81-1.54).

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence that higher levels of 4-dione may be associated with lower, and SHBG with higher, LC risk in women. However, this study does not support the hypothesis that higher estrogen levels decrease LC risk. Indeed, estradiol may be associated with an increased ICC risk.

Meat intake and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in two large US prospective cohorts of women and men

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological evidence on the associations between meat intake and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was limited and inconsistent.

METHODS

We prospectively examined the association between consumption of meats and meat mutagens with HCC risk using data from the Nurses' Health Study and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) after adjusting for known liver-cancer risk factors.

RESULTS

During up to 32 years of follow-up, we documented 163 incident HCC cases. The HRs of HCC for the highest vs the lowest tertile intake levels were 1.84 (95% CI: 1.16-2.92, Ptrend = 0.04) for processed red meats and 0.61 (95% CI: 0.40-0.91, Ptrend = 0.02) for total white meats. There was a null association between unprocessed red meats and HCC risk (HR = 1.06, 95% CI: 0.68-1.63, Ptrend = 0.85). We found both poultry (HR = 0.60, 95% CI: 0.40-0.90, Ptrend = 0.01) and fish (HR = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.47-1.05, Ptrend = 0.10) were inversely associated with HCC risk. The HR for HCC risk was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.61-1.02) when 1 standard deviation of processed red meats was substituted with an equivalent amount of poultry or fish intake. We also found a suggestive positive association of intake of meat-derived mutagenicity or heterocyclic amines with risk of HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Processed red meat intake might be associated with higher, whereas poultry or possibly fish intake might be associated with lower, risk of HCC. Replacing processed red meat with poultry or fish might be associated with reduced HCC risk.

Exogenous hormone use, reproductive factors and risk of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma among women: results from cohort studies in the Liver Cancer Pooling Project and the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) arises from cholangiocytes in the intrahepatic bile duct and is the second most common type of liver cancer. Cholangiocytes express both oestrogen receptor-α and -β, and oestrogens positively modulate cholangiocyte proliferation. Studies in women and men have reported higher circulating oestradiol is associated with increased ICC risk, further supporting a hormonal aetiology. However, no observational studies have examined the associations between exogenous hormone use and reproductive factors, as proxies of endogenous hormone levels, and risk of ICC.

METHODS

We harmonised data from 1,107,498 women who enroled in 12 North American-based cohort studies (in the Liver Cancer Pooling Project, LCPP) and the UK Biobank between 1980-1998 and 2006-2010, respectively. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to generate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence internals (CI). Then, meta-analytic techniques were used to combine the estimates from the LCPP (n = 180 cases) and the UK Biobank (n = 57 cases).

RESULTS

Hysterectomy was associated with a doubling of ICC risk (HR = 1.98, 95% CI: 1.27-3.09), compared to women aged 50-54 at natural menopause. Long-term oral contraceptive use (9+ years) was associated with a 62% increased ICC risk (HR = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.03-2.55). There was no association between ICC risk and other exogenous hormone use or reproductive factors.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that hysterectomy and long-term oral contraceptive use may be associated with an increased ICC risk.

Physical activity compared to adiposity and risk of liver-related mortality: Results from two prospective, nationwide cohorts

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Obesity in adulthood has been associated with increased risk of liver-related mortality. Whether higher levels of physical activity counteract the excess risk conferred by obesity remains unknown. We simultaneously evaluated the long-term impact of physical activity and adiposity on liver-related mortality, within 2 nationwide populations.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study of 77,238 women and 48,026 men, with detailed, validated assessments of weekly physical activity (metabolic equivalent task [MET]-hours]), adiposity (body mass index [BMI], waist circumference), and diet, alcohol use and clinical comorbidities, biennially from 1986 through 2012. Using Cox proportional hazards regression models, we calculated multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs for liver-related mortality, including death from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and other complications of cirrhosis.

RESULTS

Over 1,856,226 person-years, we recorded 295 liver-related deaths (108 HCC; 187 cirrhosis). Risk of liver-related mortality increased monotonically with higher BMI during adulthood (ptrend<0.0001) and with weight gain during early adulthood (ptrend <0.0001). The risk of liver-related mortality also declined progressively, with increasing physical activity (ptrend = 0.0003); the aHRs across increasing physical activity quintiles were: 1.0, 0.70 (95% CI 0.51-0.96), 0.59 (95% CI 0.42-0.84), 0.52 (95% CI 0.36-0.74) and 0.46 (95% CI 0.31-0.66). Compared to lean-active adults (BMI <25; ≥18 MET-hours/week), the aHRs for obese-active, lean-sedentary, and obese-sedentary adults were: 1.04 (95% CI 0.73-1.37), 2.08 (95% CI 1.21-3.33) and 3.40 (95% CI 2.06-5.56), respectively. Findings were similar for HCC-specific and cirrhosis-specific mortality. Overall, engaging in average-pace walking for >3 hours/week could have prevented 25% of liver-related deaths (95% CI 0.12-0.38).

CONCLUSIONS

In 2 prospective, nationwide cohorts, both excess adiposity and reduced physical activity were significant predictors of liver-related mortality. Achieving higher physical activity levels counteracted the excess liver-related risks associated with obesity.

LAY SUMMARY

This is the first large, prospective cohort study to simultaneously evaluate the impact of obesity and physical activity on the long-term risk of liver-related mortality in 2 nationwide populations of American men and women. The study demonstrated that obesity predicted significantly increased risk of liver-related mortality, while physical activity predicted significantly lower risk of liver-related mortality. Importantly, the excess risk of liver-related mortality observed with obesity was no longer statistically significant among adults who engaged in the equivalent of average-pace walking for 3 hours or more, per week.

MON-286 Peak Stimulated Growth Hormone Is Lower in Subjects with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Than Controls of Similar Sex, Age and BMI

Background: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), fatty infiltration of the liver in the absence of alcohol use, is a prevalent and serious complication of obesity. Obesity is a state of relative growth hormone (GH) deficiency, and GH has been identified as a candidate disease-modifying target in NAFLD because of its lipolytic and anti-inflammatory properties. However, it is not known whether individuals with NAFLD phenotyped by proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS), the gold standard imaging modality for assessment of intrahepatic lipid (IHL) content, have lower peak stimulated GH levels as compared to those of similar age, sex and BMI without NAFLD.

Methods: We studied 99 generally healthy adults without diabetes or significant alcohol use, ages 19-67 y and BMI >25 kg/m². All subjects underwent 1H-MRS for assessment of IHL content. Using a cutoff of >5.5%, 65 subjects had NAFLD and 34 did not (controls). GHRH-arginine stimulation testing was performed. GH was measured by immunoassay and IGF-1 by LC/MS/MS (Quest Diagnostics, CA, USA). Visceral and subcutaneous adipose tissue (VAT/SAT) were assessed by cross-sectional CT at L4. Results are reported as mean ±SD.

Results: There was no difference between NAFLD vs controls in mean age (48±12 vs 45±14 y, p=0.30), BMI (33±4 vs 33±7 kg/m², p=0.96), sex (43% vs 44% female, p=0.90) or premenopausal status (50% vs 60%, p=0.50). Mean IHL was 21.8±13.3% (range 5.5-57.8%) and 2.9±1.1% (range 1.0-4.9%) in the NAFLD and control groups, respectively (p<0.0001). NAFLD subjects had higher ALT, total cholesterol, triglycerides, VLDL, LDL and lower HDL than controls. Fasting glucose was statistically but not clinically significantly higher in NAFLD vs controls (90±9 vs 86±7 mg/dL, p=0.03), and mean HbA1c did not differ significantly. There was a trend towards a higher mean VAT in the NAFLD vs controls (157±70 vs 131±67 g, p=0.07) but no difference in SAT. Mean peak stimulated GH was significantly lower in NAFLD vs controls (9.0±6.3 vs 15.4±11.2 ng/mL, p=0.003) which remained significant after controlled for age, BMI, sex and VAT. In a stepwise model including peak stimulated GH, VAT, age, BMI and sex, peak stimulated GH predicted 8% of the variability in IHL (p=0.004); no other variables were significant predictors of IHL. Mean IGF-1 (149±53 vs 151±49 ng/mL, p=0.80) and IGF-1 Z-score (-0.03±0.61 vs -0.03±0.68, p=0.90) were not significantly different between the groups.

Conclusion: Subjects with NAFLD have lower peak stimulated GH but similar IGF-1 levels compared to non-NAFLD controls of similar age, BMI and sex. Additionally, lower peak stimulated GH was predictive of higher IHL, independent of age, BMI, sex and VAT. This suggests that the relative GH deficiency of obesity may be an independent contributor to the development of NAFLD and that the GH axis and downstream signaling pathways may be a therapeutic target for this disease where few currently exist.

Physical Activity and Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Among U.S. Men and Women

Mounting evidence indicates a potential beneficial effect of vigorous-intensity physical activity on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the association between moderate-intensity physical activity, such as brisk walking, and the risk of HCC remains largely unknown. Two prospective cohorts of 77,535 women from the Nurses' Health Study and 44,540 men from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study were included. Weekly time spent on physical activities were updated biennially. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to calculate multivariable hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). After an average 23-year follow-up, we identified 138 incident HCC cases. A higher amount of total physical activity was not significantly associated with a reduced risk of HCC (top tertile vs. bottom tertile; HR = 0.78; 95% CI, 0.51-1.18; P _trend = 0.33). For the same comparison, there was an inverse association between moderate-intensity activity and HCC risk (HR = 0.60; 95% CI, 0.38-0.94; P _trend = 0.04), whereas no statistically significant association with vigorous-intensity activity (HR = 0.88; 95% CI, 0.56-1.37; P _trend = 0.74). Engaging in brisk walking was significantly associated with a lower risk of HCC (over 1 hour/week vs. non-brisk walking; HR = 0.50; 95% CI, 0.31-0.78; P _trend = 0.006). The association between brisk walking and HCC risk was generally present across all subgroups, including age, body mass index, type 2 diabetes mellitus, smoking status, aspirin use, and alcohol consumption (all P _interaction ≥ 0.05). In conclusion, moderate-intensity activity, especially brisk walking, was associated with reduced risk of HCC among U.S. men and women. If confirmed, brisk walking might serve a feasible way for HCC prevention.

Advanced fibrosis is associated with incident cardiovascular disease in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. It is not well understood, however, which individuals with NAFLD are at highest risk for cardiovascular disease.

AIMS

To determine the factors associated with incident cardiovascular events in a prospective cohort of individuals with biopsy-proven NAFLD without pre-existing cardiovascular disease.

METHODS

From 2011 to 2018, adults with biopsy-proven NAFLD without cardiovascular disease were enrolled in a tissue repository and were followed prospectively to the first recorded date of incident cardiovascular disease, death or the end of follow-up (11/1/2018). Competing risks analysis was performed to identify predictors of incident cardiovascular disease.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up time of 5.2 years, 26/285 (9.1%) individuals experienced an incident cardiovascular event. Advanced fibrosis (stage 3-4) on biopsy was a significant predictor of incident cardiovascular disease, and this persisted on multivariable analysis (SHR 2.86, 95% CI 1.36-6.04) after considering relevant covariates, including cardiovascular risk scores, which were not independent predictors. Of the non-invasive indicators of fibrosis, the NAFLD fibrosis score was the only independent predictor of cardiovascular disease. Other histologic features, including steatohepatitis, were not associated with incident cardiovascular disease.

CONCLUSIONS

In adults with biopsy-proven NAFLD, advanced fibrosis on biopsy and higher NAFLD fibrosis score were significant and independent predictors of incident cardiovascular disease, even after considering traditional risk factors and cardiovascular risk scores. These findings should be considered when evaluating NAFLD patients for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, and further evaluation into the link between advanced fibrosis and cardiovascular disease is needed.

Association of Aspirin with Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Liver-Related Mortality

BACKGROUND

More information is needed about the long-term effects of low-dose aspirin (≤160 mg) on incident hepatocellular carcinoma, liver-related mortality, and gastrointestinal bleeding in persons with chronic hepatitis B or hepatitis C virus infection.

METHODS

Using nationwide Swedish registries, we identified all adults who received a diagnosis of chronic hepatitis B or hepatitis C from 2005 through 2015 and who did not have a history of aspirin use (50,275 patients). Patients who were starting to take low-dose aspirin (14,205 patients) were identified by their first filled prescriptions for 90 or more consecutive doses of aspirin. We constructed a propensity score and applied inverse probability of treatment weighting to balance baseline characteristics between groups. Using Cox proportional-hazards regression modeling, we estimated the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and liver-related mortality, accounting for competing events.

RESULTS

With a median of 7.9 years of follow-up, the estimated cumulative incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma was 4.0% among aspirin users and 8.3% among nonusers of aspirin (difference, -4.3 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -5.0 to -3.6; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.76). This inverse association appeared to be duration-dependent; as compared with short-term use (3 months to <1 year), the adjusted hazard ratios were 0.90 (95% CI, 0.76 to 1.06) for 1 to less than 3 years of use, 0.66 (95% CI, 0.56 to 0.78) for 3 to less than 5 years of use, and 0.57 (95% CI, 0.42 to 0.70) for 5 or more years of use. Ten-year liver-related mortality was 11.0% among aspirin users and 17.9% among nonusers (difference, -6.9 percentage points [95% CI, -8.1 to -5.7]; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.67 to 0.81]). However, the 10-year risk of gastrointestinal bleeding did not differ significantly between users and nonusers of aspirin (7.8% and 6.9%, respectively; difference, 0.9 percentage points; 95% CI, -0.6 to 2.4).

CONCLUSIONS

In a nationwide study of patients with chronic viral hepatitis in Sweden, use of low-dose aspirin was associated with a significantly lower risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and lower liver-related mortality than no use of aspirin, without a significantly higher risk of gastrointestinal bleeding. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.).

Association of Intake of Whole Grains and Dietary Fiber With Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in US Adults

Importance

Increased intake of whole grain and dietary fiber has been associated with lower risk of insulin resistance, hyperinsulinemia, and inflammation, which are known predisposing factors for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Therefore, we hypothesized that long-term intake of whole grains and dietary fiber may be associated with lower risk of HCC.

Objective

To assess the associations of whole grain and dietary fiber intake with the risk of HCC.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Cohort study of the intake of whole grains, their subcomponents (bran and germ), and dietary fiber (cereal, fruit, and vegetable) in 125 455 participants from 2 cohorts from the Nurses' Health Study and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study.

Exposures

Intake of whole grains, their subcomponents (bran and germ), and dietary fiber (cereal, fruit, and vegetable) were collected and updated almost every 4 years using validated food frequency questionnaires.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression model after adjusting for most known HCC risk factors.

Results

After an average follow-up of 24.2 years, we identified 141 patients with HCC among 125 455 participants (77 241 women and 48 214 men (mean [SD] age, 63.4 [10.7] years). Increased whole grain intake was significantly associated with lower risk of HCC (the highest vs lowest tertile intake: HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.41-0.96; P = .04 for trend). A nonsignificant inverse HCC association was observed for total bran (HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.46-1.07; P = .11 for trend), but not for germ. Increased intake of cereal fiber (HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.45-1.03; P = .07 for trend), but not fruit or vegetable fiber, was associated with a nonsignificant reduced risk of HCC.

Conclusions and Relevance

Increased intake of whole grains and possibly cereal fiber and bran could be associated with reduced risk of HCC among adults in the United States. Future studies that carefully consider hepatitis B and C virus infections are needed to replicate our findings, to examine these associations in other racial/ethnic or high-risk populations, and to elucidate the underlying mechanisms.