Weight gain during early adulthood, trajectory of body shape and the risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: A prospective cohort study among women

Association between weight change and risk of liver fibrosis in adults with type 2 diabetes

Background

Liver fibrosis plays a key role in the progression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease to cirrhosis. Considering weight change is known to be closely associated with increased risk of liver fibrosis, we aimed to address a gap in evidence regarding the existence of this association in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

Methods

We included data on 622 T2D patients and 1618 non-T2D participants from the 2017-2018 cycle of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). We assessed liver fibrosis by the median values of liver stiffness measurement (LSM). According to the participants' body mass index (BMI) at age 25 (early adulthood), 10 years prior (middle adulthood), and at the 2017-2018 cycle (late adulthood), we categorised weight change patterns into stable non-obese, weight loss, weight gain, and stable obese. We applied logistic regression to association analysis and used population attributable fraction (PAF) to analyses hypothetical prevention regimens.

Results

The prevalence of liver fibrosis was higher in T2D patients (23.04%) than in non-T2D participants (6.70%), while weight change was associated with a greater risk of fibrosis in the former compared to the latter group. Compared with T2D patients in the stable non-obese group, stable obese individuals from 10 years prior to the 2017-2018 cycle had the highest risk of developing liver fibrosis, corresponding to an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of 3.13 (95% confidence interval = 1.84-5.48). Absolute weight change patterns showed that the risk of liver fibrosis was highest (aOR = 2.94) when T2D patients gained at least 20 kg of weight from 10 years prior to 2017-2018 cycle.

Conclusions

Obesity in middle and late adulthood is associated with an increased risk of T2D complicated with liver fibrosis.

Body shape trajectories are associated with birth weight, body mass index and sociodemographic conditions in participants of the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil): a multiple correspondence analysis

BACKGROUND

Evaluating lifelong weight trajectories is challenging due to the high costs of studies that follow individuals from childhood to adulthood. The use of silhouette scales has been a new approach to assess the body shape trajectory across life as a proxy for body weight trajectory. Depending on body shape trajectories, individuals may be more prone to develop diseases in adulthood. Therefore, identifying factors related to them is essential for public health. This study aimed to evaluate body shape trajectories across the lifespan and to verify associations between them, birth weight, body mass index, and sociodemographic conditions in a Brazilian cohort.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional analysis conducted with 14,014 participants of first follow-up data collection of Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil). ELSA-Brasil is a multicentric prospective cohort study initiated in 2008 with civil servants of six public institutions in the Northeast, South and Southeast regions of Brazil. We applied a clustering method to longitudinal data to identify body shape trajectories from 5 to 40 years of age and assessed the associations between these trajectories and birth weight, body mass index and sociodemographic conditions (race, education, maternal education and monthly per capita family income) using multiple correspondence analysis.

RESULTS

We found five body shape trajectories for women and three for men. Low birth weight was associated with a slight to moderate increase in shape. High birth weight was associated with maintaining large body size in both sexes and markedly increased body shape in women. Higher sociodemographic status and white race were associated with marked increases in body shape in men and maintenance of medium body shape in women.

CONCLUSIONS

The study shows that variables related to worse lifetime weight status (evaluated by anthropometry), such as presence of obesity, are also associated with worse body shape trajectories, as assessed with silhouette scales. Our results suggest that body shape trajectories are a good indicator of body weight trajectories and may be used when cohort studies are not possible.

Metabolic (dysfunction)-associated fatty liver disease in individuals of normal weight

Metabolic (dysfunction)-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) affects up to a third of the global population; its burden has grown in parallel with rising rates of type 2 diabetes mellitus and obesity. MAFLD increases the risk of end-stage liver disease, hepatocellular carcinoma, death and liver transplantation and has extrahepatic consequences, including cardiometabolic disease and cancers. Although typically associated with obesity, there is accumulating evidence that not all people with overweight or obesity develop fatty liver disease. On the other hand, a considerable proportion of patients with MAFLD are of normal weight, indicating the importance of metabolic health in the pathogenesis of the disease regardless of body mass index. The clinical profile, natural history and pathophysiology of patients with so-called lean MAFLD are not well characterized. In this Review, we provide epidemiological data on this group of patients and consider overall metabolic health and metabolic adaptation as a framework to best explain the pathogenesis of MAFLD and its heterogeneity in individuals of normal weight and in those who are above normal weight. This framework provides a conceptual schema for interrogating the MAFLD phenotype in individuals of normal weight that can translate to novel approaches for diagnosis and patient care.

Weight Change across Adulthood in Relation to Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease among Non-Obese Individuals

Background: To investigate the associations of weight change patterns across adulthood with the risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Methods: Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2017–2018 cycle, we performed a retrospective cohort study with 2212 non-obese participants aged 36 years old over. Weight change patterns were categorized as “stable non-obese”, “early adulthood weight gain”, “middle and late adulthood weight gain” and “revert to non-obese” according to the body mass index (BMI) at age 25, 10 years prior and at baseline. Vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) was performed to diagnose NAFLD. Modified Poisson regression was used to quantify the associations of weight change patterns with NAFLD. Results: Compared with participants in the “stable non-obese” group, those who gained weight at early or middle and late adulthood had an increased risk of NAFLD, with an adjusted rate ratio (RR) of 2.19 (95% CI 1.64–2.91) and 1.92 (95% CI 1.40–2.62), respectively. The risk of NAFLD in “revert to the non-obese” group showed no significant difference with the stable non-obese group. If the association of weight change and NAFLD was causal, we estimated that 73.09% (95% CI 55.62–82.93%) of incident NAFLD would be prevented if the total population had a normal BMI across adulthood. Conclusions: Weight gain to obese at early or middle and late adulthood was associated with an evaluated risk of NAFLD. A large proportion would have been prevented with effective weight intervention.

Red meat consumption, obesity, and the risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease among women: Evidence from mediation analysis

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have suggested consumption of red meat may be associated with an increased risk of developing nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). However, large-scale, prospective data regarding red meat consumption in relation to the incidence of NAFLD are lacking, nor is it known whether any association is mediated by obesity.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to evaluate the relationship between red meat consumption and the subsequent risk of developing NAFLD.

DESIGN

This prospective cohort study included 77,795 women in the Nurses' Health Study II cohort without NAFLD at baseline (in 1995), who provided detailed, validated information regarding diet, including consumption of red meat, every 4 years, followed through 2015. Lifestyle factors, clinical comorbidities and body mass index (BMI), were updated biennially. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Over 1,444,637 person years of follow-up, we documented 3130 cases of incident NAFLD. Compared to women who consumed ≤1 serving/week of red meat, the multivariable-adjusted HRs of incident NAFLD were 1.20 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.50) for 2-4 servings/week; 1.31 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.61) for 5-6 servings/week; 1.41 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.75) for 1 serving/day; and 1.52 (95% CI: 1.23, 1.89) for ≥2 servings/day. However, after further adjustment for BMI, all associations for red meat, including unprocessed and processed red meat, were attenuated and not statistically significant (all P-trend>0.05). BMI was estimated to mediate 66.1% (95% CI: 41.8%, 84.2%; P < 0.0001) of the association between red meat consumption and NAFLD risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Red meat consumption, including both unprocessed and processed red meat, was associated with significantly increased risk of developing NAFLD. This association was mediated largely by obesity.

Stratifying individuals into non-alcoholic fatty liver disease risk levels using time series machine learning models

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) affects 25% of the population worldwide, and its prevalence is anticipated to increase globally. While most NAFLD patients are asymptomatic, NAFLD may progress to fibrosis, cirrhosis, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes. Research reports, with daunting results, show the challenge that NAFLD's burden causes to global population health. The current process for identifying fibrosis risk levels is inefficient, expensive, does not cover all potential populations, and does not identify the risk in time. Instead of invasive liver biopsies, we implemented a non-invasive fibrosis assessment process calculated from clinical data (accessed via EMRs/EHRs). We stratified patients' risks for fibrosis from 2007 to 2017 by modeling the risk in 5579 individuals. The process involved time-series machine learning models (Hidden Markov Models and Group-Based Trajectory Models) profiled fibrosis risk by modeling patients' latent medical status resulted in three groups. The high-risk group had abnormal lab test values and a higher prevalence of chronic conditions. This study can help overcome the inefficient, traditional process of detecting fibrosis via biopsies (that are also medically unfeasible due to their invasive nature, the medical resources involved, and costs) at early stages. Thus longitudinal risk assessment may be used to make population-specific medical recommendations targeting early detection of high risk patients, to avoid the development of fibrosis disease and its complications as well as decrease healthcare costs.

Changes in general and central fatness are associated with hepatocellular carcinoma: A Korean nationwide longitudinal study

We investigated the impact of short-term changes in general and central fatness on the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in a large, population-based cohort. We screened 7,221,479 subjects who underwent health examinations provided by the National Health Insurance Service of South Korea in 2009 and 2011. In total, 6,789,472 subjects were included in the final analysis. General fatness was defined as a body mass index (BMI) ≥25 kg/m² , and central fatness was defined as a waist circumference (WC) ≥90 cm in men and ≥85 cm in women. Subjects were classified according to the change in body fatness between 2009 and 2011, as follows: 1) persistent no fatness as no fatness in both 2009 and 2011, 2) reversed fatness as fatness in 2009, but no fatness in 2011, 3) incident fatness as no fatness in 2009, but fatness in 2011, or 4) persistent fatness as fatness in both 2009 and 2011. During a median 6.4-year follow-up, we documented 9,952 HCC cases. Compared to subjects with a persistent no general fatness, the risk of HCC significantly increased in those with incident (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]=1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.01-1.20) and persistent (aHR=1.28, 95% CI=1.23-1.34) general fatness. Compared to subjects with persistent no central fatness, those with incident and persistent central fatness showed a significantly increased risk of HCC (aHR=1.19, 95% CI=1.11-1.27, and aHR=1.33, 95% CI=1.26-1.40, respectively). Taken together, these findings indicate the importance of strategies for preventing and reversing body fatness to reduce the incidence of HCC. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.