Pre-diagnostic plasma proteomics profile for hepatocellular carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

Proteomics may discover pathophysiological changes related to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), an aggressive and lethal type of cancer with low sensitivity for early-stage diagnosis.

DESIGN

We measured 1,305 pre-diagnostic (median 12.7 years) SOMAscan proteins from 54 pairs of healthy individuals who subsequently developed HCC and matched non-HCC controls from the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS). Candidate proteins were validated in the independent, prospective UK Biobank Pharma Proteomics Project (UKB-PPP).

RESULTS

In NHS/HPFS, we identified 56 elevated proteins in HCC with absolute fold-change >1.2 and Wald test P < .05 in conditional logistic regression analysis. Ingenuity Pathway Analysis identified enrichment of pathways associated with cell viability, adhesion, proteolysis, apoptosis, and inflammatory response. Four proteins, chitinase-3-like protein 1, growth/differentiation factor 15, interleukin-1 receptor antagonist protein, and E-selectin, showed strong positive associations with HCC and were thus validated by ELISA (odds ratio ranged 2.48-14.7, all P < .05) in the NHS/HPFS and by Olink platform (hazard ratio ranged 1.90-3.93, all P < .05) in the UKB-PPP. Adding these four proteins to a logistic regression model of traditional HCC risk factors increased the area under the curve (AUC) from 0.67 to 0.87 in the NHS/HPFS. Consistently, model AUC was 0.88 for HCC risk prediction in the UKB-PPP.

CONCLUSION

However, the limited number of HCC cases in the cohorts necessitates caution in interpreting our findings, emphasizing the need for further validation in high-risk populations.

A natural language processing algorithm accurately classifies steatotic liver disease pathology to estimate the risk of cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Histopathology remains the gold standard for diagnosing and staging metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). The feasibility of studying MASLD progression in electronic medical records based on histological features is limited by the free-text nature of pathology reports. Here we introduce a natural language processing (NLP) algorithm to automatically score MASLD histology features.

METHODS

From the Mass General Brigham health care system electronic medical record, we identified all patients (1987-2021) with steatosis on index liver biopsy after excluding excess alcohol use and other etiologies of liver disease. An NLP algorithm was constructed in Python to detect steatosis, lobular inflammation, ballooning, and fibrosis stage from pathology free-text and manually validated in >1200 pathology reports. Patients were followed from the index biopsy to incident decompensated liver disease accounting for covariates.

RESULTS

The NLP algorithm demonstrated positive and negative predictive values from 93.5% to 100% for all histologic concepts. Among 3134 patients with biopsy-confirmed MASLD followed for 20,604 person-years, rates of the composite endpoint increased monotonically with worsening index fibrosis stage (p for linear trend <0.005). Compared to simple steatosis (incidence rate, 15.06/1000 person-years), the multivariable-adjusted HRs for cirrhosis were 1.04 (0.72-1.5) for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH)/F0, 1.19 (0.92-1.54) for MASH/F1, 1.89 (1.41-2.52) for MASH/F2, and 4.21 (3.26-5.43) for MASH/F3.

CONCLUSIONS

The NLP algorithm accurately scores histological features of MASLD from pathology free-text. This algorithm enabled the construction of a large and high-quality MASLD cohort across a multihospital health care system and disclosed an accelerating risk for cirrhosis based on the index MASLD fibrosis stage.

Statins Are Associated With a Decreased Risk of Severe Liver Disease in Individuals With Noncirrhotic Chronic Liver Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Little is known about the potential impact of statins on the progression of noncirrhotic chronic liver diseases (CLDs) to severe liver disease.

METHODS

Using liver histopathology data in a nationwide Swedish cohort, we identified 3862 noncirrhotic individuals with CLD and statin exposure, defined as a statin prescription filled for 30 or more cumulative defined daily doses. Statin users were matched to 3862 (statin) nonusers with CLD through direct 1:1 matching followed by propensity score matching. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the primary outcome of incident severe liver disease (a composite of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver transplantation/liver-related mortality).

RESULTS

A total of 45.3% of CLD patients had nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, 21.9% had alcohol-related liver disease, 17.7% had viral hepatitis, and 15.1% had autoimmune hepatitis. During follow-up evaluation, 234 (6.1%) statin users vs 276 (7.1%) nonusers developed severe liver disease. Statin use was associated with a decreased risk of developing severe liver disease (HR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.48-0.74). Statistically significantly lower rates of severe liver disease were seen in alcohol-related liver disease (HR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.19-0.49) and in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.45-1.00), but not in viral hepatitis (HR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.51-1.14) or autoimmune hepatitis (HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.48-1.58). Statin use had a protective association in both prefibrosis and fibrosis stages at diagnosis. Statin use was associated with lower rates of progression to cirrhosis (HR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.49-0.78), hepatocellular carcinoma (HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.27-0.71), and liver-related mortality (HR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.36-0.82).

CONCLUSIONS

Among individuals with noncirrhotic CLD, incident statin use was linked to lower rates of severe liver disease, suggesting a potential disease-modifying role.

Aspirin for Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease Without Cirrhosis: A Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Aspirin may reduce severity of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and lower the incidence of end-stage liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma, in patients with MASLD. However, the effect of aspirin on MASLD is unknown.

Objective

To test whether low-dose aspirin reduces liver fat content, compared with placebo, in adults with MASLD.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This 6-month, phase 2, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial was conducted at a single hospital in Boston, Massachusetts. Participants were aged 18 to 70 years with established MASLD without cirrhosis. Enrollment occurred between August 20, 2019, and July 19, 2022, with final follow-up on February 23, 2023.

Interventions

Participants were randomized (1:1) to receive either once-daily aspirin, 81 mg (n = 40) or identical placebo pills (n = 40) for 6 months.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary end point was mean absolute change in hepatic fat content, measured by proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) at 6-month follow-up. The 4 key secondary outcomes included mean percentage change in hepatic fat content by MRS, the proportion achieving at least 30% reduction in hepatic fat, and the mean absolute and relative reductions in hepatic fat content, measured by magnetic resonance imaging proton density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF). Analyses adjusted for the baseline value of the corresponding outcome. Minimal clinically important differences for study outcomes were not prespecified.

Results

Among 80 randomized participants (mean age, 48 years; 44 [55%] women; mean hepatic fat content, 35% [indicating moderate steatosis]), 71 (89%) completed 6-month follow-up. The mean absolute change in hepatic fat content by MRS was -6.6% with aspirin vs 3.6% with placebo (difference, -10.2% [95% CI, -27.7% to -2.6%]; P = .009). Compared with placebo, aspirin treatment significantly reduced relative hepatic fat content (-8.8 vs 30.0 percentage points; mean difference, -38.8 percentage points [95% CI, -66.7 to -10.8]; P = .007), increased the proportion of patients with 30% or greater relative reduction in hepatic fat (42.5% vs 12.5%; mean difference, 30.0% [95% CI, 11.6% to 48.4%]; P = .006), reduced absolute hepatic fat content by MRI-PDFF (-2.7% vs 0.9%; mean difference, -3.7% [95% CI, -6.1% to -1.2%]; P = .004]), and reduced relative hepatic fat content by MRI-PDFF (-11.7 vs 15.7 percentage points; mean difference, -27.3 percentage points [95% CI, -45.2 to -9.4]; P = .003). Thirteen participants (32.5%) in each group experienced an adverse event, most commonly upper respiratory tract infections (10.0% in each group) or arthralgias (5.0% for aspirin vs 7.5% for placebo). One participant randomized to aspirin (2.5%) experienced drug-related heartburn.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this preliminary randomized clinical trial of patients with MASLD, 6 months of daily low-dose aspirin significantly reduced hepatic fat quantity compared with placebo. Further study in a larger sample size is necessary to confirm these findings.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04031729.

The future of International Classification of Diseases coding in steatotic liver disease: An expert panel Delphi consensus statement

BACKGROUND

Following the adoption of new nomenclature for steatotic liver disease, we aimed to build consensus on the use of International Classification of Diseases codes and recommendations for future research and advocacy.

METHODS

Through a two-stage Delphi process, a core group (n = 20) reviewed draft statements and recommendations (n = 6), indicating levels of agreement. Following revisions, this process was repeated with a large expert panel (n = 243) from 73 countries.

RESULTS

Consensus ranged from 88.8% to 96.9% (mean = 92.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

This global consensus statement provides guidance on harmonizing the International Classification of Diseases coding for steatotic liver disease and future directions to advance the field.

Incident cardiac arrhythmias associated with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease: a nationwide histology cohort study

BACKGROUND

Prior studies suggest a link between metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and incident arrhythmias, including atrial fibrillation (AF). However, robust data are lacking from cohorts with liver histology, which remains the gold standard for staging MASLD severity.

METHODS

This population-based cohort included all Swedish adults with histologically-confirmed MASLD and without prior cardiac arrhythmias (1966-2016; n = 11,206). MASLD was defined from prospectively-recorded histopathology, and characterized as simple steatosis, non-fibrotic steatohepatitis (MASH), non-cirrhotic fibrosis, or cirrhosis. MASLD patients were matched to ≤ 5 controls without MASLD or arrhythmias, by age, sex, calendar year and county (n = 51,856). Using Cox proportional hazards modeling, we calculated multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for incident arrhythmias (including AF, bradyarrhythmias, other supraventricular arrhythmias, ventricular arrhythmias/cardiac arrest).

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 10.8 years, incident arrhythmias were confirmed in 1351 MASLD patients (10.3/1000 person-years [PY]) and 6493 controls (8.7/1000PY; difference = 1.7/1000PY; aHR = 1.30, 95%CI 1.22-1.38), and MASLD patients had significantly higher rates of incident AF (difference = 0.9/1000PY; aHR = 1.26, 95%CI 1.18-1.35). Rates of both overall arrhythmias and AF were significantly elevated across all MASLD histological groups, particularly cirrhosis (differences, 8.5/1000PY and 5.3/1000PY, respectively). In secondary analyses, MASLD patients also had significantly higher rates of incident ventricular arrhythmias/cardiac arrest (aHR = 1.53, 95%CI 1.30-1.80), bradyarrhythmias (aHR = 1.26, 95%CI 1.06-1.48), and other supraventricular arrhythmias (aHR = 1.27, 95%CI 1.00-1.62), compared to controls.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to matched controls, patients with biopsy-confirmed MASLD had modest but significantly higher incidence of cardiac arrhythmias, including AF, bradyarrhythmias, other supraventricular arrhythmias and ventricular arrhythmias/cardiac arrest. Excess risk was observed across all stages of MASLD and was highest with cirrhosis.

Risk of Severe Infection in Patients With Biopsy-proven Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease - A Population-based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

It has been suggested that patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) might be at increased risk of severe infections, but large-scale data from cohorts with biopsy-proven NAFLD are lacking.

METHODS

Population-based cohort study including all Swedish adults with histologically confirmed NAFLD (n = 12,133) from 1969 to 2017. NAFLD was defined as simple steatosis (n = 8232), nonfibrotic steatohepatitis (n = 1378), noncirrhotic fibrosis (n = 1845), and cirrhosis (n = 678). Patients were matched to ≤5 population comparators (n = 57,516) by age, sex, calendar year, and county. Swedish national registers were used to ascertain incident severe infections requiring hospital admission. Multivariable adjusted Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios in NAFLD and histopathological subgroups.

RESULTS

Over a median of 14.1 years, 4517 (37.2%) patients with NAFLD vs 15,075 (26.2%) comparators were hospitalized for severe infections. Patients with NAFLD had higher incidence of severe infections than comparators (32.3 vs. 17.0/1000 person-years; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.63-1.79). The most frequent infections were respiratory (13.8/1000 person-years) and urinary tract infections (11.4/1000 person-years). The absolute risk difference at 20 years after NAFLD diagnosis was 17.3%, equal to one extra severe infection in every 6 patients with NAFLD. Risk of infection increased with worsening histological severity of NAFLD (simple steatosis [aHR, 1.64], nonfibrotic steatohepatitis [aHR, 1.84], noncirrhotic fibrosis [aHR, 1.77], and cirrhosis [aHR, 2.32]. Also compared with their full siblings, patients with NAFLD were at increased risk of severe infections (aHR, 1.54; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-1.70).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were at significantly higher risk of incident severe infection requiring hospitalization both compared with the general population and compared with siblings. Excess risk was evident across all stages of NAFLD and increased with worsening disease severity.

Progression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and long-term outcomes: A nationwide paired liver biopsy cohort study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

More data are needed regarding the long-term impact of the histological progression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) on long-term outcomes, including end-stage liver disease (ESLD) and mortality.

METHODS

We included Swedish adults with biopsy-confirmed non-cirrhotic NAFLD and ≥2 liver biopsies >6 months apart (1969-2017; n = 718). NAFLD was categorized at initial biopsy as simple steatosis, non-fibrotic steatohepatitis (NASH), or non-cirrhotic fibrosis. NAFLD progression was defined by histological changes between biopsies (i.e. incident NASH, incident fibrosis, fibrosis progression, cirrhosis). Using Cox regression, we estimated multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs for incident ESLD (i.e. hospitalization for decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma or liver transplantation) and mortality, according to NAFLD progression vs. stable/regressed disease.

RESULTS

At initial biopsy, 497 patients (69.2%) had simple steatosis, 90 (12.5%) had non-fibrotic NASH, and 131 (18.2%) had non-cirrhotic fibrosis. Over a median of 3.4 years between biopsies, 30.4% (218/718) experienced NAFLD progression, including 12.5% (62/497) with incident non-fibrotic NASH, 24.0% (141/587) with incident fibrosis, and 5.6% (40/718) with cirrhosis. Compared to stable/regressed disease, NAFLD progression was associated with significantly higher rates of developing incident ESLD (23.8 vs. 11.4/1,000 person-years [PY]; difference = 12.4/1,000 PY; aHR 1.65, 95% CI 1.17-2.32). While the highest ESLD incidence occurred with progression to cirrhosis (difference vs. stable/regressed disease = 56.3/1,000 PY), significant excess risk was also found with earlier transitions, including from simple steatosis to incident fibrosis (difference vs. stable/regressed disease = 18.9/1,000 PY). In contrast, all-cause mortality rates did not appear to differ when NAFLD progression was compared to stable/regressed disease (difference = 4.7/1,000 PY; aHR 0.99, 95% CI 0.78-1.24).

CONCLUSIONS

In a nationwide, real-world cohort of patients with paired NAFLD biopsies, histological disease progression contributed to significantly higher rates of developing incident ESLD, but did not appear to impact all-cause mortality.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Currently, data are scarce regarding the long-term impact of histological progression or regression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) on subsequent risk of adverse clinical outcomes, including the development of end-stage liver disease and mortality. This is particularly important because randomized-controlled trials of NAFLD therapeutics currently focus on short-term histological endpoints as presumed surrogates for those major clinical outcomes. Thus, the results from this study can help inform the optimal design of future NAFLD therapeutic trials, while also providing the necessary evidence base for public health policies focused on preventing the development and progression of NAFLD.

Growth Hormone Administration Improves Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Overweight/Obesity: A Randomized Trial

CONTEXT

Overweight and obesity are associated with relative growth hormone (GH) deficiency, which has been implicated in the development of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). NAFLD is a progressive disease without effective treatments.

OBJECTIVE

We hypothesized that GH administration would reduce hepatic steatosis in individuals with overweight/obesity and NAFLD.

METHODS

In this 6-month randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of low-dose GH administration, 53 adults aged 18 to 65 years with BMI ≥25 kg/m2 and NAFLD without diabetes were randomized to daily subcutaneous GH or placebo, targeting insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) to the upper normal quartile. The primary endpoint was intrahepatic lipid content (IHL) by proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS) assessed before treatment and at 6 months.

RESULTS

Subjects were randomly assigned to a treatment group (27 GH; 26 placebo), with 41 completers (20 GH and 21 placebo) at 6 months. Reduction in absolute % IHL by 1H-MRS was significantly greater in the GH vs placebo group (mean ± SD: -5.2 ± 10.5% vs 3.8 ± 6.9%; P = .009), resulting in a net mean treatment effect of -8.9% (95% CI, -14.5 to -3.3%). All side effects were similar between groups, except for non-clinically significant lower extremity edema, which was more frequent in the GH vs placebo group (21% vs 0%, P = .02). There were no study discontinuations due to worsening of glycemic status, and there were no significant differences in change in glycemic measures or insulin resistance between the GH and placebo groups.

CONCLUSION

GH administration reduces hepatic steatosis in adults with overweight/obesity and NAFLD without worsening glycemic measures. The GH/IGF-1 axis may lead to future therapeutic targets for NAFLD.

Effect of combined tobacco use and type 2 diabetes mellitus on prevalent fibrosis in patients with MASLD

BACKGROUND

Several studies have investigated the independent effect of cigarette smoking or type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) on MASLD. However, the interaction effect between tobacco consumption and T2DM on MASLD severity remains underexplored. In this study, we assessed the combined effect of tobacco use and T2DM on hepatic fibrosis in MASLD.

METHODS

We conducted a single-center retrospective cross-sectional analysis of eligible participants from the Mass General Brigham Fibroscan© database. The participants were divided into 3 groups: those with T2DM and a history of tobacco use (primary exposure group), those with T2DM but no history of tobacco use (secondary exposure group), and those without T2DM and no history of tobacco use (reference group). An additional model was developed, which included a fourth group, participants with a history of tobacco use but no T2DM. The likelihood of fibrosis was determined using a defined fibrosis-4 index cutoff value of 1.3. In addition, we computed the estimated marginal means for liver stiffness measurement and compared the values among the exposure groups. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used to explore the associations between the exposure groups and the risk for hepatic fibrosis.

RESULTS

Overall, 598 individuals were enrolled in the study. The bivariable logistic regression model revealed a significant independent association between T2DM, combined smoking and T2DM, and the outcome of interest, fibrosis. Age, sex, metabolic syndrome, aspirin use, statin use, hemoglobin A1C (A1C), and total bilirubin level were also significantly associated with fibrosis. In the adjusted fibrosis-4 multivariable model (comparing exposure groups to controls), cigarette smoking and T2DM interaction had higher odds of prevalent fibrosis (aOR, 3.04; 95% CI, 1.62-5.76), compared to those with T2DM alone (aOR 2.28; 95% CI, 1.37-3.85). The continuous liver stiffness measurement comparison across the exposure group showed an estimated marginal means of 6.26 (95% CL: 5.58-6.94), 7.54 (95% CL: 6.78-8.30), and 7.88 (6.78-8.99) for the reference group, T2DM only group, and tobacco-T2DM group, respectively. The diabetes-only group and the combined tobacco-T2DM group had statistically significant associations with liver stiffness measurement (p values: 0.013 and 0.014, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Although diabetes is independently associated with hepatic fibrosis in patients with MASLD, the combination of tobacco consumption and diabetes is associated with a higher prevalence of fibrosis. Therefore, lifestyle change through tobacco use cessation in patients with diabetes could be beneficial in reducing the incidence of liver fibrosis among individuals with MASLD.

Antibiotic use and development of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: A population-based case-control study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Antibiotics affect the gut microbiome. Preclinical studies suggest a role of gut dysbiosis in the development of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), but data from large cohorts with liver histology are lacking.

METHODS

In this nationwide case-control study, Swedish adults with histologically confirmed early-stage NAFLD (total n = 2584; simple steatosis n = 1435; steatohepatitis (NASH) n = 383; non-cirrhotic fibrosis n = 766) diagnosed January 2007-April 2017 were included and matched to ≤5 population controls (n = 12 646) for age, sex, calendar year and county of residence. Data for cumulative antibiotic dispensations and defined daily doses were accrued until 1 year before the matching date. Using conditional logistic regression, multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (aORs) were calculated. In a secondary analysis, NAFLD patients were compared with their full siblings (n = 2837).

RESULTS

Previous antibiotic use was seen in 1748 (68%) NAFLD patients versus 7001 (55%) controls, corresponding to 1.35-fold increased odds of NAFLD (95% CI = 1.21-1.51) in a dose-dependent manner (pfor trend  < .001). Estimates were comparable for all histologic stages (p > .05). The highest risk of NAFLD was observed after treatment with fluoroquinolones (aOR 1.38; 95% CI = 1.17-1.59). Associations remained robust when patients were compared with their full siblings (aOR 1.29; 95% CI = 1.08-1.55). Antibiotic treatment was only linked to NAFLD in patients without metabolic syndrome (aOR 1.63; 95% CI = 1.35-1.91) but not in those with metabolic syndrome (aOR 1.09; 95% CI = 0.88-1.30).

CONCLUSIONS

Antibiotic use may be a risk factor for incident NAFLD, especially in individuals without the metabolic syndrome. The risk was highest for fluoroquinolones and remained robust in sibling comparisons with whom individuals share genetic and early environmental susceptibilities.

The empirical dietary inflammatory pattern score and the risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Diet plays an important role in the pathogenesis of NAFLD. Inflammation is a potential mechanism linking diet to NAFLD development and its progression to cirrhosis.1 We analyzed data from a large, prospective cohort of US women to examine the influence of dietary inflammatory potential on the long-term risk of developing NAFLD and cirrhosis.

METHODS

We prospectively followed 96,016 women in the Nurses' Health Study II cohort (1995-2017) who were free of chronic liver disease, including NAFLD, at baseline. The inflammatory potential of the diet was ascertained using an established, food-based empirical dietary inflammatory pattern score. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios and 95% CIs for incident NAFLD and cirrhosis.

RESULTS

Over 2,085,947 person-years of follow-up, we documented 4389 cases of incident NAFLD and 102 cases of incident cirrhosis. Increasing cumulative average empirical dietary inflammatory pattern (EDIP) score was significantly and positively associated with incident NAFLD (multivariable-adjusted HR 1.31 per each 1-U increase in EDIP score, p-trend < 0.0001) and cirrhosis (p-trend of 0.034). Our findings also were consistent when examining recent diets using simple updated EDIP scores. In analyses of specific EDIP components, we observed an increased risk of incident NAFLD and cirrhosis with higher consumption of certain proinflammatory components of the EDIP score.

CONCLUSIONS

Dietary patterns with a higher proinflammatory potential may be associated with a higher risk of developing both NAFLD and cirrhosis. Reducing the inflammatory potential of diet may potentially provide an effective strategy for preventing the development of NAFLD and progression to cirrhosis.

Extrahepatic Outcomes of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: Nonhepatocellular Cancers

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) encompasses the entire spectrum of fatty liver disease in individuals without significant alcohol consumption, including isolated steatosis, steatohepatitis, and cirrhosis. The overall global prevalence of NAFLD is estimated to be 30%, and the associated clinical and economic burden will continue to increase. NAFLD is a multisystemic disease with established links to cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, metabolic syndrome, chronic kidney disease, polycystic ovarian syndrome, and intra- and extrahepatic malignancies. In this article the authors review the potential mechanisms and current evidence for the association between NAFLD and extrahepatic cancers and the resultant impact on clinical outcomes.

American College of Sports Medicine (ACSM) International Multidisciplinary Roundtable report on physical activity and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We present findings from the inaugural American College of Sports Medicine (ACSM) International Multidisciplinary Roundtable, which was convened to evaluate the evidence for physical activity as a means of preventing or modifying the course of NAFLD.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

A scoping review was conducted to map the scientific literature and identify key concepts, research gaps, and evidence available to inform clinical practice, policymaking, and research. The scientific evidence demonstrated regular physical activity is associated with decreased risk of NAFLD development. Low physical activity is associated with a greater risk for disease progression and extrahepatic cancer. During routine health care visits, all patients with NAFLD should be screened for and counseled about physical activity benefits, including reduction in liver fat and improvement in body composition, fitness, and quality of life. While most physical activity benefits occur without clinically significant weight loss, evidence remains limited regarding the association between physical activity and liver fibrosis. At least 150 min/wk of moderate or 75 min/wk of vigorous-intensity physical activity are recommended for all patients with NAFLD. If a formal exercise training program is prescribed, aerobic exercise with the addition of resistance training is preferred.

CONCLUSIONS

The panel found consistent and compelling evidence that regular physical activity plays an important role in preventing NAFLD and improving intermediate clinical outcomes. Health care, fitness, and public health professionals are strongly encouraged to disseminate the information in this report. Future research should prioritize determining optimal strategies for promoting physical activity among individuals at risk and in those already diagnosed with NAFLD.

Development and Validation of a Novel Tool to Predict Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) Scores in Cirrhosis, Using Administrative Datasets

Background

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score predicts disease severity and mortality in cirrhosis. To improve cirrhosis phenotyping in administrative databases lacking laboratory data, we aimed to develop and externally validate claims-based MELD prediction models, using claims data linked to electronic health records (EHR).

Methods

We included adults with established cirrhosis in two Medicare-linked EHR networks (training and internal validation; 2007-2017), and a Medicaid-linked EHR network (external validation; 2000-2014). Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) with 5-fold cross-validation, we selected among 146 investigator-specified variables to develop models for predicting continuous MELD and relevant MELD categories (MELD<10, MELD≥15 and MELD≥20), with observed MELD calculated from laboratory data. Regression coefficients for each model were applied to the validation sets to predict patient-level MELD and assess model performance.

Results

We identified 4501 patients in the Medicare training set (mean age 75.1 years, 18.5% female, mean MELD=13.0), and 2435 patients in the Medicare validation set (mean age: 74.3 years, 31.7% female, mean MELD=12.3). Our final model for predicting continuous MELD included 112 variables, explaining 58% of observed MELD variability; in the Medicare validation set, the area-under-the-receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) for MELD<10 and MELD≥15 were 0.84 and 0.90, respectively; the AUC for the model predicting MELD≥20 (using 27 variables) was 0.93. Overall, these models correctly classified 77% of patients with MELD<10 (95% CI=0.75-0.78), 85% of patients with MELD≥15 (95% CI=0.84-0.87), and 87% of patients with MELD≥20 (95% CI=0.86-0.88). Results were consistent in the external validation set (n=2240).

Conclusion

Our MELD prediction tools can be used to improve cirrhosis phenotyping in administrative datasets lacking laboratory data.

Cardiovascular disease risk in paediatric and young adult non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

OBJECTIVE

Longitudinal evidence is lacking regarding the long-term risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in children and young adults with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

DESIGN

This nationwide cohort study included all Swedish children and young adults ≤25 years old with histologically confirmed NAFLD and without underlying cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline (1966-2016; n=699). NAFLD was defined from prospectively recorded histopathology, and further categorised as simple steatosis or non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). NAFLD patients were matched to ≤5 population controls without NAFLD or CVD (n=3353). Using Cox proportional hazards modelling, we calculated multivariable-adjusted HRs (aHRs) and 95% CIs for incident MACE (ie, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, congestive heart failure or cardiovascular mortality). In secondary analyses, we also explored rates of incident cardiac arrhythmias.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 16.6 years, incident MACE was confirmed in 33 NAFLD patients and 52 controls. NAFLD patients had significantly higher rates of MACE than controls (3.1 vs 0.9/1000 person-years (PY); difference=2.1/1000 PY; aHR=2.33, 95% CI=1.43 to 3.78), including higher rates of ischaemic heart disease (difference=1.4/1000 PY; aHR=3.07, 95% CI 1.62 to 5.83) and congestive heart failure (difference=0.5/1000 PY; aHR=3.89, 95% CI=1.20 to 12.64). Rates of incident MACE outcomes appeared to be further augmented with NASH (aHR=5.27, 95% CI=1.96 to 14.19). In secondary analyses, NAFLD patients also had significantly higher rates of cardiac arrythmias (aHR=3.16, 95% CI=1.49 to 6.68).

CONCLUSION

Compared with matched population controls, children and young adults with biopsy-proven NAFLD had significantly higher rates of incident MACE, including ischaemic heart disease and congestive heart failure. Research to better characterise cardiovascular risk in children and young adults with NAFLD should be prioritised.

Prescribing Trends of Oral Anticoagulants in US Patients With Cirrhosis and Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation

Background Many patients with cirrhosis have concurrent nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Data are lacking regarding recent oral anticoagulant (OAC) usage trends among US patients with cirrhosis and NVAF. Methods and Results Using MarketScan claims data (2012-2019), we identified patients with cirrhosis and NVAF eligible for OACs (CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2 [men] or ≥3 [women]). We calculated the yearly proportion of patients prescribed a direct OAC (DOAC), warfarin, or no OAC. We stratified by high-risk features (decompensated cirrhosis, thrombocytopenia, coagulopathy, chronic kidney disease, or end-stage renal disease). Among 32 487 patients (mean age=71.6 years, 38.5% women, 15.1% with decompensated cirrhosis, mean CHA2DS2-VASc=4.2), 44.6% used OACs within 180 days of NVAF diagnosis, including DOACs (20.2%) or warfarin (24.4%). Compared with OAC nonusers, OAC users were less likely to have decompensated cirrhosis (18.6% versus 10.7%), thrombocytopenia (19.5% versus 12.5%), or chronic kidney disease/end-stage renal disease (15.5% versus 14.0%). Between 2012 and 2019, warfarin use decreased by 21.0% (32.0% to 11.0%), whereas DOAC use increased by 30.6% (7.4% to 38.0%), and among all DOACs between 2012 and 2019, apixaban was the most commonly prescribed (46.1%). Warfarin use decreased and DOAC use increased in all subgroups, including in compensated and decompensated cirrhosis, thrombocytopenia, coagulopathy, chronic kidney disease/end-stage renal disease, and across CHA2DS2-VASc categories. Among OAC users (2012-2019), DOAC use increased by 58.9% (18.7% to 77.6%). Among DOAC users, the greatest proportional increase was with apixaban (61.2%; P<0.001). Conclusions Among US patients with cirrhosis and NVAF, DOAC use has increased substantially and surpassed warfarin, including in decompensated cirrhosis. Nevertheless, >55% of patients remain untreated, underscoring the need for clearer treatment guidance.

Autopsy histology data suggest cirrhosis is frequently under-reported on death certificates

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis may be asymptomatic yet contribute to ill health. Here, we studied how often cirrhosis is discovered first at an autopsy. We also examined how frequent this finding was not reported on formal death certificates.

METHODS

We used register-based data from all liver biopsies in Sweden performed after death. Cross-linkage to national registers was performed to examine how often such patients had accurate coding for cirrhosis on their death certificates.

FINDINGS

A total of 6187 patients with a liver biopsy performed after death, showing cirrhosis. Of these, 2523 (41%) did not have a diagnosis corresponding to cirrhosis on their final death certificate.

Pregnancy Outcomes in Women With Autoimmune Hepatitis - A Nationwide Population-based Cohort Study With Histopathology

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) is a chronic inflammatory liver condition that predominantly affects women. However, pregnancy risks remain unclear.

METHODS

A nationwide population-based cohort study (ESPRESSO) in Sweden from 1992 to 2016 including 309 singleton births in women with AIH and 1532 matched births in women from the general population was performed. AIH was diagnosed as a combination of administrative coding from medical diagnosis of AIH and liver biopsy data from Sweden's 28 pathology departments. Using conditional logistic regression, odds ratios (ORs) for adverse pregnancy outcomes were determined.

RESULTS

Among 306 live births to women with AIH, 51 (16.7%) were preterm, compared with 70 of 1524 (4.6%) reference births. This corresponded to an OR of 5.10 for preterm birth (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.29-7.92), with similar odds using sibling comparators. Women with AIH with and without cirrhosis had similar odds for preterm birth. The AIH association was particularly strong with medically indicated preterm birth (OR, 13.01; 95% CI, 5.50-30.79). AIH was associated with low birth weight (OR, 5.31; 95% CI, 2.82-9.99) and low 5-minute Apgar score (OR, 3.46; 95% CI, 1.14-10.49) offspring, but we found no association with congenital malformations (OR, 1.14; 95% CI, 0.68-1.91), small for gestational age (OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.38-2.85), stillbirth (OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.02-18.88), or neonatal death (OR, 7.42; 95% CI, 0.65-84.25). Maternal AIH was linked to an increased odds of cesarean section (OR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.04-2.00) and preeclampsia (OR, 3.65; 95% CI, 2.01-6.64), but not to gestational diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Maternal AIH was associated with a 5-fold higher odds of preterm birth, and cirrhosis at diagnosis did not add to the impact of AIH on preterm birth. Future studies are needed to understand how to reduce this risk.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Chemoprevention with Generic Agents

Liver cancer, mainly hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), remains a major cause of cancer-related death worldwide. With the global epidemic of obesity, the major HCC etiologies have been dynamically shifting from viral to metabolic liver diseases. This change has made HCC prevention difficult with increasingly elusive at-risk populations as rational target for preventive interventions. Besides ongoing efforts to reduce obesity and metabolic disorders, chemoprevention in patients who already have metabolic liver diseases may have a significant impact on the poor HCC prognosis. Hepatitis B- and hepatitis C-related HCC incidences have been substantially reduced by the new antivirals, but HCC risk can persist over a decade even after successful viral treatment, highlighting the need for HCC-preventive measures also in these patients. Experimental and retrospective studies have suggested potential utility of generic agents such as lipophilic statins and aspirin for HCC chemoprevention given their well-characterized safety profile, although anticipated efficacy may be modest. In this review, we overview recent clinical and translational studies of generic agents in the context of HCC chemoprevention under the contemporary HCC etiologies. We also discuss newly emerging approaches to overcome the challenges in clinical testing of the agents to facilitate their clinical translation.

Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Biopsy-proven Alcohol-related Liver Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) frequently have risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD), but their long-term risk of CVD is not well-known, especially considering the competing risk of death from liver-related causes. It is further unknown if any excess risk varies across histological subgroups.

METHODS

We investigated the risk of CVD outcomes in 3488 persons with ALD and an available liver biopsy in Sweden between 1969 and 2016, compared with a matched reference population (n = 15,461). Administrative coding from national diagnostic and histopathology registers were used to define exposures and outcomes. Competing risk regression, taking non-CVD death into account and adjusting for potential confounders, was used to estimate subdistribution hazard ratios for incident CVD up until Dec 31, 2019.

RESULTS

At baseline, patients with ALD had a median age of 58 years, 64% were men, and 2039 (58%) had cirrhosis on histology. The incidence rate of CVD was 35.6 per 1000 person-years in ALD compared with 19.0 per 1000 person-years in reference individuals. ALD was associated with a 2-fold increased short-term risk for CVD compared with matched reference individuals (subdistribution hazard ratio during the first year after diagnosis, 2.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.79-2.95), but this risk decreased with time. Incidence rates of CVD were comparable across histological subgroups (ranging from 27.4 CVD cases per 1000 person-years in those with normal histology to 39.2 cases per 1000 person-years in those with cirrhosis).

CONCLUSIONS

Persons with biopsy-proven ALD have increased rates of CVD across histological subgroups compared with matched reference individuals, particularly just after ALD diagnosis. Active surveillance of modifiable CVD risk factors should be considered by clinicians treating patients with ALD.

Risk factors for cardiovascular disease among individuals with hepatic steatosis

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality in adults with hepatic steatosis (HS). However, risk factors for CVD in HS are unknown. We aimed to identify factors associated with coronary artery disease (CAD) and incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in individuals with HS. We performed a nested cohort study of adults with HS detected on coronary computed tomography in the PROspective Multicenter Imaging Study for Evaluation of chest pain (PROMISE) trial. Obstructive CAD was defined as ≥50% coronary stenosis. MACE included hospitalization for unstable angina, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or all-cause death. Multivariate modeling, adjusted for age, sex, atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk score and body mass index, identified factors associated with obstructive CAD. Cox regression, adjusted for ASCVD risk score, determined the predictors of MACE. A total of 959 of 3,756 (mean age 59.4 years, 55.0% men) had HS. Obstructive CAD was present in 15.2% (145 of 959). Male sex (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18-1.2.84; p = 0.007), ASCVD risk score (aOR = 1.05, 95% CI 1.03-1.07; p < 0.001), and n-terminal pro-b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP; aOR = 1.90, 95% CI 1.38-2.62; p < 0.001) were independently associated with obstructive CAD. In the 25-months median follow-up, MACE occurred in 4.4% (42 of 959). Sedentary lifestyle (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 2.53, 95% CI 1.27-5.03; p = 0.008) and NT-proBNP (aOR = 1.50, 95% CI 1.01-2.25; p = 0.046) independently predicted MACE. Furthermore, the risk of MACE increased by 3% for every 1% increase in ASCVD risk score (aHR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.05; p = 0.02). Conclusion: In individuals with HS, male sex, NT-pro-BNP, and ASCVD risk score are associated with obstructive CAD. Furthermore, ASCVD, NT-proBNP, and sedentary lifestyle are independent predictors of MACE. These factors, with further validation, may help risk-stratify adults with HS for incident CAD and MACE.

Gallstones and risk of cancers of the liver, biliary tract and pancreas: a prospective study within two U.S. cohorts

BACKGROUND

Gallstones may result in inflammation, altered bile flow, and changes in metabolic hormone levels, thereby increasing cancer risk. However, previous studies for gallstones and cancers of the liver, biliary tract and pancreas in the U.S. were relatively limited.

METHODS

We followed 115,036 women from the Nurses' Health Study (1982-2012) and 49,729 men from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2012). History of gallstones, including with or without performed cholecystectomy, was reported at baseline and updated through biennial questionnaires. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to calculate multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs).

RESULTS

During up to 30-year follow-up, we identified 204 incidents of liver cancer, 225 biliary tract cancer and 1147 pancreatic cancer cases. Compared to those without gallstones diagnosis, the multivariable HRs for individuals with gallstones (untreated or with cholecystectomy) were 1.60 for liver cancer (95% CI: 1.14-2.26), 4.79 for biliary tract cancer (95% CI: 3.02-7.58), and 1.13 for pancreatic cancer (95% CI: 0.96-1.32). The multivariable HRs for individuals with cholecystectomy were 1.33 for liver cancer (95% CI: 0.90-1.95) and 1.15 for pancreatic cancer (95% CI: 0.98-1.36).

CONCLUSIONS

Gallstones were associated with a higher risk of cancers of the liver, biliary tract and possibly pancreas.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and incident major adverse cardiovascular events: results from a nationwide histology cohort

OBJECTIVE

Some data suggest a positive association between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). However, data are lacking from large cohorts with liver histology, which remains the gold standard for staging NAFLD severity.

DESIGN

This population-based cohort included all Swedish adults with histologically confirmed NAFLD and without cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline (1966-2016, n=10 422). NAFLD was defined from prospectively recorded histopathology and categorised as simple steatosis, non-fibrotic steatohepatitis, non-cirrhotic fibrosis and cirrhosis. Patients with NAFLD were matched to ≤5 population controls without NAFLD or CVD, by age, sex, calendar year and county (n=46 517). Using Cox proportional hazards modelling, we calculated multivariable adjusted HRs (aHRs) and 95% CIs for MACE outcomes (ie, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, congestive heart failure (CHF) or cardiovascular (CV) mortality).

RESULTS

Over a median of 13.6 years, incident MACE was confirmed in 2850 patients with NAFLD and 10 648 controls. Patients with NAFLD had higher incidence of MACE than controls (24.3 vs 16.0/1000 person-years (PY); difference=8.3/1000 PY; aHR 1.63, 95% CI 1.56 to 1.70), including higher rates of IHD (difference=4.2/1000 PY; aHR 1.64, 95% CI 1.54 to 1.75), CHF (difference=3.3/1000 PY; aHR 1.75, 95% CI 1.63 to 1.87), stroke (difference=2.4/1000 PY; aHR 1.58, 95% CI 1.46 to 1.71) and CV mortality (difference=1.2/1000 PY; aHR 1.37, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.48). Rates of incident MACE increased progressively with worsening NAFLD severity (p_trend=0.02), with the highest incidence observed with cirrhosis (difference vs controls=27.2/1000 PY; aHR 2.15, 95% CI 1.77 to 2.61).

CONCLUSION

Compared with matched population controls, patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD had significantly higher incidence of MACE, including IHD, stroke, CHF and CV mortality. Excess risk was evident across all stages of NAFLD and increased with worsening disease severity.

The GH/IGF-1 Axis Is Associated With Intrahepatic Lipid Content and Hepatocellular Damage in Overweight/Obesity

CONTEXT

Obesity is a state of relative growth hormone (GH) deficiency, and GH has been identified as a candidate disease-modifying target in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) because of its lipolytic and anti-inflammatory properties. However, the GH/IGF-1 axis has not been well characterized in NAFLD.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to investigate serum GH and IGF-1 levels in relation to intrahepatic lipid content (IHL) and markers of hepatocellular damage and fibrosis in NAFLD.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study included 102 adults (43% women; age 19-67; BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2) without type 2 diabetes. IHL was measured by magnetic resonance spectroscopy; NAFLD was defined by ≥ 5% IHL. Peak-stimulated GH in response to GH releasing hormone and arginine was assessed as was serum IGF-1 (LC/MS).

RESULTS

There was no difference in mean age, BMI, or sex distribution in NAFLD vs controls. Mean (± SD) IHL was higher in NAFLD vs controls (21.8 ± 13.3% vs 2.9 ± 1.1%, P < 0.0001). Mean peak-stimulated GH was lower in NAFLD vs controls (9.0 ± 6.3 vs 15.4 ± 11.2 ng/mL, P = 0.003), including after controlling for age, sex, visceral adipose tissue, and fasting glucose. In a stepwise model, peak-stimulated GH predicted 14.6% of the variability in IHL (P = 0.004). Higher peak-stimulated GH was also associated with lower ALT. Higher serum IGF-1 levels were associated with lower risk of liver fibrosis by Fibrosis-4 scores.

CONCLUSION

Individuals with NAFLD have lower peak-stimulated GH levels but similar IGF-1 levels as compared to controls. Higher peak-stimulated GH levels are associated with lower IHL and less hepatocellular damage. Higher IGF-1 levels are associated with more favorable fibrosis risk scores. These data implicate GH and IGF-1 as potential disease modifiers in the development and progression of NAFLD.

Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists and Hepatic Decompensation Events in Patients With Cirrhosis and Diabetes

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The study sought to compare the effectiveness of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors, sulfonylureas, or sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors in reducing decompensation events, among patients with cirrhosis and type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

This population-based, retrospective cohort study included patients with type 2 diabetes and cirrhosis, in a commercial healthcare database (IBM MarketScan). We constructed 3 pairwise, 1:1 propensity score (PS)-matched cohorts of adults initiating GLP-1RAs or a comparator medication (ie, DPP-4 inhibitors [2006-2020], sulfonylurea [2005-2020], or SGLT-2 inhibitors [2013-2020]). Patients were followed in an as-treated approach for decompensation events (ie, ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, hepatorenal syndrome, hepatic encephalopathy, or esophageal variceal hemorrhage). Within each PS-matched cohort, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), controlling for >90 baseline characteristics.

RESULTS

Over 132 days of median follow-up (interquartile range, 73-290 days), PS-matched rates of any decompensation were significantly lower among GLP-1RA initiators, versus DPP-4 inhibitor initiators (105.2 vs 144.0 per 1000 person-years [PY]; HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.53-0.88; n = 1431 pairs), and versus sulfonylureas (97.3 vs 144.0 per 1000 PY; HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.48-0.84; n = 1246 pairs). Similar, inverse associations were found for individual decompensation events, including ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, or hepatorenal syndrome (HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.45-0.97; and HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.46-0.94, respectively); esophageal variceal hemorrhage (HR, 0.62 [95% CI, 0.41-0.92; and HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.37-0.92, respectively); and hepatic encephalopathy (HR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.55-1.06; and HR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.39-0.92, respectively). Results persisted in subgroups of patients with and without previously decompensated cirrhosis. In contrast, decompensation rates were similar when GLP-1RAs and SGLT-2 inhibitors were directly compared (103.5 vs 112.8 per 1000 PY; HR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.62-1.28).

CONCLUSIONS

Among cirrhotic patients with type 2 diabetes, we find high rates of decompensation, consistent with previous reports; these rates were substantially lower among GLP-1RA initiators compared with DPP-4 inhibitors or sulfonylureas.

Artificial intelligence for the prevention and clinical management of hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) currently represents the fifth most common malignancy and the third-leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide, with incidence and mortality rates that are increasing. Recently, artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a unique opportunity to improve the full spectrum of HCC clinical care, by improving HCC risk prediction, diagnosis, and prognostication. AI approaches include computational search algorithms, machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models. ML consists of a computer running repeated iterations of models, in order to progressively improve performance of a specific task, such as classifying an outcome. DL models are a subtype of ML, based on neural network structures that are inspired by the neuroanatomy of the human brain. A growing body of recent data now apply DL models to diverse data sources - including electronic health record data, imaging modalities, histopathology and molecular biomarkers - to improve the accuracy of HCC risk prediction, detection and prediction of treatment response. Despite the promise of these early results, future research is still needed to standardise AI data, and to improve both the generalisability and interpretability of results. If such challenges can be overcome, AI has the potential to profoundly change the way in which care is provided to patients with or at risk of HCC.

Risk of Cancer in Biopsy-Proven Alcohol-Related Liver Disease: A Population-Based Cohort Study of 3410 Persons

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Persons with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) are at an increased risk of death and liver-related endpoints, but the association with incident cancer is not well understood, and whether it differs across histopathological subgroups is undefined.

METHODS

We investigated the risk of cancer in 3,410 persons with a diagnosis of ALD and an available liver biopsy in Sweden between 1969-2016, compared to a matched reference population. Administrative coding from national registers and liver biopsy data were used to define exposure and outcome status. Competing risk regression, adjusted for available confounders and using non-cancer mortality as the competing risk, was used to estimate subdistribution hazard ratios (sHRs) for incident cancer.

RESULTS

At baseline, persons with ALD had a median age of 58.2 years, 67% were men, and 2,042 (60%) had cirrhosis. ALD was not associated with cancer in general (sHR = 1.01, 95%CI = 0.92-1.11), although the risk was increased in persons surviving ≥1 year (sHR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.08-1.32). The risk of liver cancer was elevated sHR = 12.80, 95%CI = 9.38-17.45). HCC incidence among ALD persons with cirrhosis was 8.6 cases/1,000 person-years, corresponding to a cumulative incidence after 10 years of 5.0%.

CONCLUSIONS

Persons with biopsy-proven ALD that survive the initial time after diagnosis are at an elevated risk for cancer, in particular HCC compared with the general population. Although the risk for HCC was elevated, data do not suggest that routine surveillance for HCC in ALD cirrhosis is cost-effective.

Red meat consumption, obesity, and the risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease among women: Evidence from mediation analysis

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have suggested consumption of red meat may be associated with an increased risk of developing nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). However, large-scale, prospective data regarding red meat consumption in relation to the incidence of NAFLD are lacking, nor is it known whether any association is mediated by obesity.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to evaluate the relationship between red meat consumption and the subsequent risk of developing NAFLD.

DESIGN

This prospective cohort study included 77,795 women in the Nurses' Health Study II cohort without NAFLD at baseline (in 1995), who provided detailed, validated information regarding diet, including consumption of red meat, every 4 years, followed through 2015. Lifestyle factors, clinical comorbidities and body mass index (BMI), were updated biennially. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Over 1,444,637 person years of follow-up, we documented 3130 cases of incident NAFLD. Compared to women who consumed ≤1 serving/week of red meat, the multivariable-adjusted HRs of incident NAFLD were 1.20 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.50) for 2-4 servings/week; 1.31 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.61) for 5-6 servings/week; 1.41 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.75) for 1 serving/day; and 1.52 (95% CI: 1.23, 1.89) for ≥2 servings/day. However, after further adjustment for BMI, all associations for red meat, including unprocessed and processed red meat, were attenuated and not statistically significant (all P-trend>0.05). BMI was estimated to mediate 66.1% (95% CI: 41.8%, 84.2%; P < 0.0001) of the association between red meat consumption and NAFLD risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Red meat consumption, including both unprocessed and processed red meat, was associated with significantly increased risk of developing NAFLD. This association was mediated largely by obesity.

Risk of infections and their role on subsequent mortality in biopsy-proven alcohol-related liver disease

Background and Aims

The risk for infection in alcohol‐related liver disease (ALD) has rarely been investigated at a population level, nor if the underlying liver histopathology is associated with infection risk. We examined the rate of hospital‐based infections in a nationwide cohort of biopsy‐proven ALD, and the subsequent risk of death.

Methods

Population‐based cohort study in Sweden comparing 4028 individuals with an international classification of disease (ICD) code for ALD and a liver biopsy from 1969 to 2017 with 19,296 matched general population individuals. Swedish national registers were used to ascertain incident infections in secondary or tertiary care and subsequent mortality until 2019. We used Cox regression, adjusted for sex, age, education, country of birth, diabetes, and number of hospitalizations in the year preceding liver biopsy date, to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) in ALD and histopathological subgroups compared to reference individuals.

Results

Median age at ALD diagnosis was 59 years, 65% were men and 59% had cirrhosis at baseline. Infections were more common in patients with ALD (84 cases/1000 person‐years [PY]) compared to reference individuals (29/1000 PYs; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 3.06, 95% CI = 2.85–3.29). This excess risk corresponded to one additional infection per 18 ALD patients each year.

The rate of infections was particularly high in individuals with cirrhosis (aHR = 3.46) and in those with decompensation (aHR = 5.20). Restricting our data to those with an infection, ALD (aHR = 3.63, 95%CI = 3.36–3.93), and especially ALD cirrhosis (aHR = 4.31, 95%CI = 3.89–4.78) were linked to subsequent death.

Conclusions

Individuals with biopsy‐proven ALD have a three‐fold increased rate of infections compared with the general population. The risk of death after an infection is also considerably higher in individuals with ALD.

Cancer Risk in Patients With Autoimmune Hepatitis: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study With Histopathology

We aimed to determine the risk of incident cancer in autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) compared with the general population and siblings. AIH was defined by the presence of a medical diagnosis of AIH and results of examination of a liver biopsy specimen in a nationwide Swedish population-based cohort study. We identified 5,268 adults with AIH diagnosed during 1969-2016 and 22,996 matched, general population, reference individuals and 4,170 sibling comparators. Using Cox regression, hazard ratios were determined for any incident cancer, and subtypes were determined from the Swedish Cancer Register. During follow-up, a cancer diagnosis was made in 1,119 individuals with AIH (17.2 per 1,000 person-years) and 4,450 reference individuals (12.0 per 1,000 person-years). This corresponded to a hazard ratio of 1.53 (95% confidence interval: 1.42, 1.66). Cancer risk was highest in those with cirrhosis. There was a 29.18-fold increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (95% confidence interval: 17.52, 48.61). The annual incidence risk of HCC in individuals with AIH who had cirrhosis was 1.1% per year. AIH was also linked to nonmelanoma skin cancer (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.69) and lymphoma (HR = 1.89). Sibling analyses yielded similar risk estimates for any cancer (HR = 1.84) and HCC (HR = 23.10). AIH is associated with an increased risk of any cancer, in particular, HCC and extrahepatic malignancies. The highest risk for cancer, especially HCC, is in patients with cirrhosis.

Risk of Heart Failure in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: JACC Review Topic of the Week

Heart failure (HF) and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are 2 conditions that have become important global public health problems. Emerging evidence supports a strong and independent association between NAFLD and the risk of new-onset HF, and there are multiple potential pathophysiological mechanisms by which NAFLD may increase risk of new-onset HF. The magnitude of this risk parallels the underlying severity of NAFLD, especially the level of liver fibrosis. Patients with NAFLD develop accelerated coronary atherosclerosis, myocardial alterations (mainly cardiac remodeling and hypertrophy), and certain arrhythmias (mainly atrial fibrillation), which may precede and promote the development of new-onset HF. This brief narrative review aims to provide an overview of the association between NAFLD and increased risk of new-onset HF, discuss the underlying mechanisms that link these 2 diseases, and summarize targeted pharmacological treatments for NAFLD that might also reduce the risk of HF.

Machine learning enables new insights into genetic contributions to liver fat accumulation

Excess liver fat, called hepatic steatosis, is a leading risk factor for end-stage liver disease and cardiometabolic diseases but often remains undiagnosed in clinical practice because of the need for direct imaging assessments. We developed an abdominal MRI-based machine-learning algorithm to accurately estimate liver fat (correlation coefficients, 0.97-0.99) from a truth dataset of 4,511 middle-aged UK Biobank participants, enabling quantification in 32,192 additional individuals. 17% of participants had predicted liver fat levels indicative of steatosis, and liver fat could not have been reliably estimated based on clinical factors such as BMI. A genome-wide association study of common genetic variants and liver fat replicated three known associations and identified five newly associated variants in or near the MTARC1, ADH1B, TRIB1, GPAM, and MAST3 genes (p < 3 × 10^-8). A polygenic score integrating these eight genetic variants was strongly associated with future risk of chronic liver disease (hazard ratio > 1.32 per SD score, p < 9 × 10^-17). Rare inactivating variants in the APOB or MTTP genes were identified in 0.8% of individuals with steatosis and conferred more than 6-fold risk (p < 2 × 10^-5), highlighting a molecular subtype of hepatic steatosis characterized by defective secretion of apolipoprotein B-containing lipoproteins. We demonstrate that our imaging-based machine-learning model accurately estimates liver fat and may be useful in epidemiological and genetic studies of hepatic steatosis.

Risk of severe COVID-19 and mortality in patients with established chronic liver disease: a nationwide matched cohort study

Background and aims

Some, but not all, prior studies have suggested that patients with chronic liver disease are at increased risk of contracting COVID-19 and developing more severe disease. However, nationwide data are lacking from well-phenotyped cohorts with liver histology and comparisons to matched general population controls.

Methods

We conducted a nationwide cohort study of all Swedish adults with chronic liver disease (CLD) confirmed by liver biopsy between 1966 and 2017 (n = 42,320), who were alive on February 1, 2020. CLD cases were matched to ≤ 5 population comparators by age, sex, calendar year and county (n = 182,147). Using Cox regression, we estimated multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for COVID-19 hospitalization and severe COVID-19 (intensive care admission or death due to COVID-19).

Results

Between February 1 and July 31, 2020, 161 (0.38%) CLD patients and 435 (0.24%) general population controls were hospitalized with COVID-19 (aHR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.11–1.66), while 65 (0.15%) CLD patients and 191 (0.10%) controls developed severe COVID-19 (aHR = 1.08, 95% CI = 0.79–1.48). Results were similar in patients with CLD due to alcohol use, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, viral hepatitis, autoimmune hepatitis, and other etiologies. Among patients with cirrhosis (n = 2549), the aHRs for COVID-19 hospitalization and for severe COVID-19 were 1.08 (95% CI 0.48–2.40) and 1.23 (95% CI = 0.37–4.04), respectively, compared to controls. Moreover, among all patients diagnosed with COVID-19, the presence of underlying CLD was not associated with increased mortality (aHR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.61–1.19).

Conclusions

In this nationwide cohort, patients with CLD had a higher risk of hospitalization for COVID-19 compared to the general population, but they did not have an increased risk of developing severe COVID-19.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-021-02017-8.

Cancer Risk in Patients With Biopsy-Confirmed Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Recent studies link NAFLD to an increased incidence of HCC and extrahepatic cancers. However, earlier studies were small or lacked liver histology, which remains the gold standard for staging NAFLD severity.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We conducted a population-based cohort study of all adults with histologically defined NAFLD in Sweden from 1966 to 2016 (N = 8,892). NAFLD was defined from prospectively recorded liver histopathology submitted to all 28 Swedish pathology departments and categorized as simple steatosis, nonfibrotic NASH, noncirrhotic fibrosis, and cirrhosis. NAFLD patients were individually matched to ≤5 general population controls without NAFLD by age, sex, calendar year, and county (N = 39,907). Using Cox proportional hazards modeling, we calculated multivariable adjusted HRs (aHRs) and 95% CIs. Over a median of 13.8 years, we documented 1,691 incident cancers among NAFLD patients and 6,733 among controls. Compared with controls, NAFLD patients had significantly increased overall cancer incidence (10.9 vs. 13.8 per 1,000 person-years [PYs]; difference = 2.9 per 1,000 PYs; aHR, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.18-1.36]), driven primarily by HCC (difference = 1.1 per 1,000 PYs; aHR, 17.08 [95% CI, 11.56-25.25]). HCC incidence rates increased monotonically across categories of simple steatosis, nonfibrotic NASH, noncirrhotic fibrosis, and cirrhosis (0.8 per 1,000 PYs, 1.2 per 1,000 PYs, 2.3 per 1,000 PYs, and 6.2 per 1,000 PYs, respectively; P_trend  < 0.01) and were further amplified by diabetes (1.2 per 1,000 PYs, 2.9 per 1,000 PYs, 7.2 per 1,000 PYs, and 15.7 per 1,000 PYs, respectively). In contrast, NAFLD was associated with modestly increased rates of pancreatic cancer, kidney/bladder cancer, and melanoma (differences = 0.2 per 1,000 PYs, 0.1 per 1,000 PYs, and 0.2 per 1,000 PYs, respectively), but no other cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with controls, patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD had significantly increased cancer incidence, attributable primarily to HCC, whereas the contribution of extrahepatic cancers was modest. Although HCC risk was highest with cirrhosis, substantial excess risk was also found with noncirrhotic fibrosis and comorbid diabetes.

Maternal obesity increases the risk and severity of NAFLD in offspring

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Maternal obesity has been linked to the development of cardiovascular disease and diabetes in offspring, but its relationship to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is unclear.

METHODS

Through the nationwide ESPRESSO cohort study we identified all individuals ≤25 years of age in Sweden with biopsy-verified NAFLD diagnosed between 1992 and 2016 (n = 165). These were matched by age, sex, and calendar year with up to 5 controls (n = 717). Through linkage with the nationwide Swedish Medical Birth Register (MBR) we retrieved data on maternal early-pregnancy BMI, and possible confounders, in order to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for NAFLD in offspring.

RESULTS

Maternal BMI was associated with NAFLD in offspring: underweight (aOR 0.84; 95% CI 0.14-5.15), normal weight (reference, aOR 1), overweight (aOR 1.51; 0.95-2.40), and obese (aOR 3.26; 1.72-6.19) women. Severe NAFLD (biopsy-proven fibrosis or cirrhosis) was also more common in offspring of overweight (aOR 1.94; 95% CI 0.96-3.90) and obese (aOR 3.67; 95% CI 1.61-8.38) mothers. Associations were similar after adjusting for maternal pre-eclampsia and gestational diabetes. Socio-economic parameters (smoking, mother born outside the Nordic countries and less than 10 years of basic education) were also associated with NAFLD in offspring but did not materially alter the effect size of maternal BMI in a multivariable model.

CONCLUSIONS

This nationwide study found a strong association between maternal overweight/obesity and future NAFLD in offspring. Adjusting for socio-economic and metabolic parameters in the mother did not affect this finding, suggesting that maternal obesity is an independent risk factor for NAFLD in offspring.

LAY SUMMARY

In a study of all young persons in Sweden with a liver biopsy consistent with fatty liver, the authors found that compared to matched controls, the risk of fatty liver was much higher in those with obese mothers. This was independent of available confounders and suggests that the high prevalence of obesity in younger persons might lead to a higher risk of fatty liver in their offspring.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in children and young adults is associated with increased long-term mortality

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Longitudinal data are scarce regarding the natural history and long-term risk of mortality in children and young adults with biopsy-confirmed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

METHODS

This nationwide, matched cohort study included all Swedish children and young adults (≤25 years) with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD (1966-2017; n = 718). NAFLD was confirmed histologically from all liver biopsies submitted to Sweden's 28 pathology departments, and further categorized as simple steatosis or steatohepatitis (NASH). Patients with NAFLD were matched to ≤5 general population controls by age, sex, calendar year and county (n = 3,457). To account for shared genetic and early-life factors, we also matched patients with NAFLD to full-sibling comparators. Using Cox regression, we estimated multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs.

RESULTS

Over a median of 15.8 years, 59 patients with NAFLD died (5.5/1,000 person-years [PY]) compared to 36 population controls (0.7/1,000 PY; difference = 4.8/1,000 PY; multivariable aHR 5.88; 95% CI 3.77-9.17), corresponding to 1 additional death per 15 patients with NAFLD, followed for 20 years. The 20-year absolute risk of overall mortality was 7.7% among patients with NAFLD, and 1.1% among controls (difference = 6.6%; 95% CI 4.0-9.2). Findings persisted after excluding those who died within the first 6 months (aHR 4.65; 95% CI 2.92-7.42), and after using full-sibling comparators (aHR 11.72; 95% CI 3.18-43.23). Simple steatosis was associated with a 5.26-fold higher adjusted rate of mortality compared to controls (95% CI 3.05-9.07), and this was amplified with NASH (aHR 11.51, 95% CI 4.77-27.79). Most of the excess mortality was from cancer (1.67 vs. 0.07/1,000PY; aHR 15.60; 95% CI 4.97-48.93), liver disease (0.93 vs. 0.04/1,000PY; aHR 16.46; 95% CI 2.75-98.43) and cardiometabolic disease (1.12 vs. 0.14/1,000PY; aHR 4.32, 95% CI 1.73-10.79).

CONCLUSIONS

Swedish children and young adults with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD have significantly higher rates of overall, cancer-, liver- and cardiometabolic-specific mortality compared to matched general population controls.

LAY SUMMARY

Currently, the natural history and long-term risk of mortality in children and young adults with biopsy-confirmed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is unknown. This nationwide cohort study compared the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality in pediatric and young adult patients in Sweden with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD to matched general population controls. We found that compared to controls, children and young adults with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD and NASH have significantly higher rates of overall, cancer-, liver- and cardiometabolic-specific mortality.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Studies have reported a significant association between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and increased incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the magnitude of the risk and whether this risk changes with the severity of NAFLD remains uncertain. We performed a meta-analysis of observational studies to quantify the magnitude of the association between NAFLD and risk of incident CVD events.

METHODS

We systematically searched PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science from database inception to July 1, 2021, to identify eligible observational studies examining the risk of incident CVD events amongst adult (age ≥18 years) individuals with and without NAFLD and in which NAFLD was diagnosed by imaging, International Classification of Diseases codes, or liver biopsy. The primary outcomes were CVD death, non-fatal CVD events, or both. Data from selected studies were extracted, and meta-analysis was performed using random-effects models to obtain summary hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs. The quality of the evidence was assessed with the Cochrane risk of bias tool. This study is registered on Open Science Framework, number osf.io/5z7gf.

FINDINGS

We identified 36 longitudinal studies with aggregate data on 5 802 226 middle-aged individuals (mean age 53 years [SD 7]) and 99 668 incident cases of fatal and non-fatal CVD events over a median follow-up of 6·5 years (IQR 5·0-10·2). NAFLD was associated with a moderately increased risk of fatal or non-fatal CVD events (pooled random-effects HR 1·45, 95% CI 1·31-1·61; I²=86·18%). This risk markedly increased across the severity of NAFLD, especially the stage of fibrosis (pooled random-effects HR 2·50, 95% CI 1·68-3·72; I²=73·84%). All risks were independent of age, sex, adiposity measures, diabetes, and other common cardiometabolic risk factors. Sensitivity analyses did not modify these results.

INTERPRETATION

NAFLD is associated with an increased long-term risk of fatal or non-fatal CVD events. CVD risk is further increased with more advanced liver disease, especially with higher fibrosis stage. These results provide evidence that NAFLD might be an independent risk factor for CVD morbidity and mortality.

FUNDING

None.

Risk of Cardiovascular Disease in Individuals With Nonobese Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is independently associated with obesity and cardiovascular disease (CVD). CVD is the primary cause of mortality in the predominantly obese population of adults with NAFLD. NAFLD is increasingly seen in individuals who are lean and overweight (i.e., nonobese), but it is unclear whether their risk of CVD is comparable to those with NAFLD and obesity. Using a prospective cohort of patients with NAFLD, we compared the prevalence and incidence of CVD in individuals with and without obesity. NAFLD was diagnosed by biopsy or imaging after excluding other chronic liver disease etiologies. Logistic regression was used to compare the odds of baseline CVD by obesity status. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate obesity as a predictor of incident CVD and to identify predictors of CVD in subjects with and without obesity. At baseline, adults with obesity had a higher prevalence of CVD compared to those without obesity (12.0% vs. 5.0%, P = 0.02). During follow-up, however, obesity did not predict incident CVD (hazard ratio [HR], 1.24; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-2.22) or other metabolic diseases. Findings were consistent when considering body mass index as a continuous variable and after excluding subjects who were overweight. Age (adjusted HR [aHR], 1.05; 95% CI, 1.03-1.08), smoking (aHR, 4.61; 95% CI, 1.89-11.22), and decreased low-density lipoprotein levels (aHR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.96-1.00) independently predicted incident CVD in the entire cohort, in subjects with obesity, and in those without obesity, respectively. Conclusion: Individuals with overweight or lean NAFLD are not protected from incident CVD compared to those with NAFLD and obesity, although CVD predictors appear to vary between these groups. Patients without obesity also should undergo rigorous risk stratification and treatment.

Adiposity, Adulthood Weight Change and Risk of Incident Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Prospective data are limited regarding dynamic adulthood weight changes and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk. We included 77,238 women (1980-2012) and 48,026 men (1986-2012), who recalled young-adult weight (age 18 years [women]; 21 years [men]), and provided biennially-updated information regarding weight, body mass index (BMI) and comorbidities. Overall adulthood weight change was defined as the difference in weight (kilograms) between young-adulthood and present. Using Cox proportional hazards models, we calculated multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Over 3,676,549 person-years, we documented 158 incident HCC cases. Elevated HCC risk was observed with higher BMI in both young-adulthood and later-adulthood (continuous aHRs per each 1-unit=1.05, 95%CI=1.02-1.09 [Ptrend=0.019], and 1.08, 95%CI=1.06-1.10 [Ptrend=0.004], respectively). Moreover, overall adulthood weight gain was also significantly associated with increased HCC risk (aHR per each 1-kg increase=1.03, 95%CI=1.01-1.08; Ptrend=0.010), including after further adjusting for young-adult BMI (Ptrend=0.010) and later-adult BMI (Ptrend=0.008). Compared to adults with stable weight (+/-5kg), the multivariable-aHRs with weight gain of 5-<10kg, 10-<20kg and {greater than or equal to}20kg were, 1.40 (95%CI=0.67-2.16), 2.09 (95%CI=1.11-3.95) and 2.61 (95%CI=1.42-5.22), respectively. In two prospective, nationwide cohorts, adulthood weight gain was significantly associated with increased HCC risk.

Mortality in biopsy-confirmed nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: results from a nationwide cohort

OBJECTIVE

Population-based data are lacking regarding the risk of overall and cause-specific mortality across the complete histological spectrum of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

DESIGN

This nationwide, matched cohort study included all individuals in Sweden with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD (1966 to 2017; n=10 568). NAFLD was confirmed histologically from all liver biopsies submitted to Sweden's 28 pathology departments, after excluding other etiologies of liver disease, and further categorised as, simple steatosis, non-fibrotic steatohepatitis (NASH), non-cirrhotic fibrosis and cirrhosis. NAFLD cases were matched to ≤5 general population comparators by age, sex, calendar year and county (n=49 925). Using Cox regression, we estimated multivariable-adjusted HRs (aHRs) and 95% CIs.

RESULTS

Over a median of 14.2 years, 4,338 NAFLD patients died. Compared with controls, NAFLD patients had significantly increased overall mortality (16.9 vs 28.6/1000 PY; difference=11.7/1000 PY; aHR=1.93, 95% CI=1.86 to 2.00). Compared with controls, significant excess mortality risk was observed with simple steatosis (8.3/1000 PY, aHR=1.71, 95% CI=1.64 to 1.79), non-fibrotic NASH (13.4/1000 PY, aHR=2.14, 95% CI=1.93 to 2.38), non-cirrhotic fibrosis (18.4/1000 PY, aHR=2.44, 95% CI=2.22 to 2.69) and cirrhosis (53.6/1000 PY, aHR=3.79, 95% CI=3.34 to 4.30)(p_trend <0.01). This dose-dependent gradient was similar when simple steatosis was the reference (p_trend <0.01). The excess mortality associated with NAFLD was primarily from extrahepatic cancer (4.5/1000 PY, aHR=2.16, 95% CI=2.03 to 2.30), followed by cirrhosis (2.7/1000 PY, aHR=18.15, 95% CI=14.78 to 22.30), cardiovascular disease (1.4/1000 PY, aHR=1.35, 95% CI=1.26 to 1.44) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (1.2/1000 PY, aHR=11.12, 95% CI=8.65 to 14.30).

CONCLUSION

All NAFLD histological stages were associated with significantly increased overall mortality, and this risk increased progressively with worsening NAFLD histology. Most of this excess mortality was from extrahepatic cancer and cirrhosis, while in contrast, the contributions of cardiovascular disease and HCC were modest.

Thiazolidinediones, alpha-glucosidase inhibitors, meglitinides, sulfonylureas, and hepatocellular carcinoma risk: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains a leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Effects of second-line oral antidiabetic medications on incident HCC risk in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus remain unclear. This study evaluated associations between sulfonylureas, thiazolidinediones, meglitinides and alpha-glucosidase inhibitors, and incident HCC risk.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed all studies on PubMed, Embase and Web of Science databases. Studies were included if they documented: (1) exposure to oral antidiabetic medication classes; (2) HCC incidence; (3) relative risks/odds ratios (OR) for HCC incidence. Eight eligible observational studies were identified. We performed random-effects meta-analyses to calculate pooled adjusted ORs (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

Thiazolidinedione use (7 studies, 280,567 participants, 19,242 HCC cases) was associated with reduced HCC risk (aOR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.86-0.97, I² = 43%), including among Asian subjects (aOR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.83-0.97), but not Western subjects (aOR = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.87-1.04). Alpha-glucosidase inhibitor use (3 studies, 56,791 participants, 11,069 HCC cases) was associated with increased HCC incidence (aOR = 1.08; 95% CI = 1.02-1.14, I² = 21%). Sulfonylurea use (8 studies, 281,180 participants, 19,466 HCC cases) was associated with increased HCC risk in studies including patients with established liver disease (aOR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.02-1.11, I² = 75%). Meglitinide use (4 studies, 58,237 participants, 11,310 HCC cases) was not associated with HCC incidence (aOR = 1.19; 95% CI = 0.89-1.60, I² = 72%).

CONCLUSIONS

Thiazolidinedione use was associated with reduced HCC incidence in Asian individuals with diabetes. Alpha-glucosidase inhibitor or sulfonylurea use was associated with modestly increased HCC risk; future research should determine whether those agents should be avoided in patients with chronic liver disease.

Administrative Coding in Electronic Health Care Record-Based Research of NAFLD: An Expert Panel Consensus Statement

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Electronic health record (EHR)-based research allows the capture of large amounts of data, which is necessary in NAFLD, where the risk of clinical liver outcomes is generally low. The lack of consensus on which International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes should be used as exposures and outcomes limits comparability and generalizability of results across studies. We aimed to establish consensus among a panel of experts on ICD codes that could become the reference standard and provide guidance around common methodological issues.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Researchers with an interest in EHR-based NAFLD research were invited to collectively define which administrative codes are most appropriate for documenting exposures and outcomes. We used a modified Delphi approach to reach consensus on several commonly encountered methodological challenges in the field. After two rounds of revision, a high level of agreement (>67%) was reached on all items considered. Full consensus was achieved on a comprehensive list of administrative codes to be considered for inclusion and exclusion criteria in defining exposures and outcomes in EHR-based NAFLD research. We also provide suggestions on how to approach commonly encountered methodological issues and identify areas for future research.

CONCLUSIONS

This expert panel consensus statement can help harmonize and improve generalizability of EHR-based NAFLD research.

Association of Hepatic Steatosis With Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events, Independent of Coronary Artery Disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hepatic steatosis has been associated with increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) but it is not clear whether steatosis is independently associated with risk of MACE. We investigated whether steatosis is associated with risk of MACE independently of the presence and extent of baseline coronary artery disease, assessed by comprehensive contrast-enhanced computed tomography angiography (CTA).

METHODS

We conducted a nested cohort study of 3756 subjects (mean age, 60.6 years; 48.4% men) who underwent coronary CTA at 193 sites in North America, from July 2010 through September 2013, as part of the PROMISE study, which included noninvasive cardiovascular analyses of symptomatic outpatients without coronary artery disease. Independent core laboratory readers measured hepatic and splenic attenuation, using non-contrast computed tomography images to identify steatosis, and evaluated coronary plaques and stenosis in coronary CTA images. We collected data on participants' cardiovascular risk factors, presence of metabolic syndrome, and body mass index. The primary endpoint was an adjudicated composite of MACE (death, myocardial infarction, or unstable angina) during a median follow-up time of 25 months.

RESULTS

Among the 959 subjects who had steatosis (25.5% of the cohort), 42 had MACE (4.4%), whereas among the 2797 subjects without steatosis, 73 had MACE (2.6%) (hazard ratio [HR] for MACE in subjects with steatosis, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.16-2.48; P = .006 for MACE in subjects with vs without steatosis). This association remained after adjustment for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk scores, significant stenosis, and metabolic syndrome (adjusted HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.16-2.54; P = .007) or obesity (adjusted HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.19-2.59; P = .005). Steatosis remained independently associated with MACE after adjustment for all CTA measures of plaques and stenosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Hepatic steatosis is associated with MACE independently of other cardiovascular risk factors or extent of coronary artery disease. Strategies to reduce steatosis might reduce risk of MACE. ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT01174550.

Body weight variability and the risk of cardiovascular outcomes in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

We investigated the association between body weight variability and the risks of cardiovascular disease and mortality in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) using large-scale, nationwide cohort data. We included 726,736 individuals with NAFLD who underwent a health examination between 2009 and 2010. NAFLD was defined as a fatty liver index ≥ 60, after excluding significant alcohol intake, viral hepatitis, and liver cirrhosis. Body weight variability was assessed using four indices, including variability independent of the mean (VIM). During a median 8.1-year follow-up, we documented 11,358, 14,714, and 22,164 cases of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and all-cause mortality, respectively. Body weight variability was associated with an increased risk of MI, stroke, and mortality after adjusting for confounding variables. The hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals) for the highest quartile, compared with the lowest quartile, of VIM for body weight were 1.15 (1.10-1.20), 1.22 (1.18-1.26), and 1.56 (1.53-1.62) for MI, stroke, and all-cause mortality, respectively. Body weight variability was associated with increased risks of MI, stroke, and all-cause mortality in NAFLD patients. Appropriate interventions to maintain a stable weight could positively affect health outcomes in NAFLD patients.

Association of Genetic Variation With Cirrhosis: A Multi-Trait Genome-Wide Association and Gene-Environment Interaction Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In contrast to most other common diseases, few genetic variants have been identified that impact risk of cirrhosis. We aimed to identify new genetic variants that predispose to cirrhosis, to test whether such variants, aggregated into a polygenic score, enable genomic risk stratification, and to test whether alcohol intake or body mass index interacts with polygenic predisposition.

METHODS

We conducted a multi-trait genome-wide association study combining cirrhosis and alanine aminotransferase levels performed in 5 discovery studies (UK Biobank, Vanderbilt BioVU, Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, and 2 case-control studies including 4829 individuals with cirrhosis and 72,705 controls and 362,539 individuals with alanine aminotransferase levels). Identified variants were replicated in 3 studies (Partners HealthCare Biobank, FinnGen, and Biobank Japan including 3554 individuals with cirrhosis and 343,826 controls). A polygenic score was tested in Partners HealthCare Biobank.

RESULTS

Five previously reported and 7 newly identified genetic variants were associated with cirrhosis in both the discovery studies multi-trait genome-wide association study (P < 5 × 10^-8) and the replication studies (P < .05), including a missense variant in the APOE gene and a noncoding variant near EFN1A. These 12 variants were used to generate a polygenic score. Among Partners HealthCare Biobank individuals, high polygenic score-defined as the top quintile of the distribution-was associated with significantly increased risk of cirrhosis (odds ratio, 2.26; P < .001) and related comorbidities compared with the lowest quintile. Risk was even more pronounced among those with extreme polygenic risk (top 1% of the distribution, odds ratio, 3.16; P < .001). The impact of extreme polygenic risk was substantially more pronounced in those with elevated alcohol consumption or body mass index. Modeled as risk by age 75 years, probability of cirrhosis with extreme polygenic risk was 13.7%, 20.1%, and 48.2% among individuals with no or modest, moderate, and increased alcohol consumption, respectively (P_interaction < .001). Similarly, probability among those with extreme polygenic risk was 6.5%, 10.3%, and 19.5% among individuals with normal weight, overweight, and obesity, respectively (P_interaction < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Twelve independent genetic variants, 7 of which are newly identified in this study, conferred risk for cirrhosis. Aggregated into a polygenic score, these variants identified a subset of the population at substantially increased risk who are most susceptible to the hepatotoxic effects of excess alcohol consumption or obesity.