Genetic risk impacts the association of menopausal hormone therapy with colorectal cancer risk

BACKGROUND

Menopausal hormone therapy (MHT), a common treatment to relieve symptoms of menopause, is associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). To inform CRC risk prediction and MHT risk-benefit assessment, we aimed to evaluate the joint association of a polygenic risk score (PRS) for CRC and MHT on CRC risk.

METHODS

We used data from 28,486 postmenopausal women (11,519 cases and 16,967 controls) of European descent. A PRS based on 141 CRC-associated genetic variants was modeled as a categorical variable in quartiles. Multiplicative interaction between PRS and MHT use was evaluated using logistic regression. Additive interaction was measured using the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI). 30-year cumulative risks of CRC for 50-year-old women according to MHT use and PRS were calculated.

RESULTS

The reduction in odds ratios by MHT use was larger in women within the highest quartile of PRS compared to that in women within the lowest quartile of PRS (p-value = 2.7 × 10-8). At the highest quartile of PRS, the 30-year CRC risk was statistically significantly lower for women taking any MHT than for women not taking any MHT, 3.7% (3.3%-4.0%) vs 6.1% (5.7%-6.5%) (difference 2.4%, P-value = 1.83 × 10-14); these differences were also statistically significant but smaller in magnitude in the lowest PRS quartile, 1.6% (1.4%-1.8%) vs 2.2% (1.9%-2.4%) (difference 0.6%, P-value = 1.01 × 10-3), indicating 4 times greater reduction in absolute risk associated with any MHT use in the highest compared to the lowest quartile of genetic CRC risk.

CONCLUSIONS

MHT use has a greater impact on the reduction of CRC risk for women at higher genetic risk. These findings have implications for the development of risk prediction models for CRC and potentially for the consideration of genetic information in the risk-benefit assessment of MHT use.

Genome-Wide Gene-Environment Interaction Analyses to Understand the Relationship between Red Meat and Processed Meat Intake and Colorectal Cancer Risk

BACKGROUND

High red meat and/or processed meat consumption are established colorectal cancer risk factors. We conducted a genome-wide gene-environment (GxE) interaction analysis to identify genetic variants that may modify these associations.

METHODS

A pooled sample of 29,842 colorectal cancer cases and 39,635 controls of European ancestry from 27 studies were included. Quantiles for red meat and processed meat intake were constructed from harmonized questionnaire data. Genotyping arrays were imputed to the Haplotype Reference Consortium. Two-step EDGE and joint tests of GxE interaction were utilized in our genome-wide scan.

RESULTS

Meta-analyses confirmed positive associations between increased consumption of red meat and processed meat with colorectal cancer risk [per quartile red meat OR = 1.30; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.21-1.41; processed meat OR = 1.40; 95% CI = 1.20-1.63]. Two significant genome-wide GxE interactions for red meat consumption were found. Joint GxE tests revealed the rs4871179 SNP in chromosome 8 (downstream of HAS2); greater than median of consumption ORs = 1.38 (95% CI = 1.29-1.46), 1.20 (95% CI = 1.12-1.27), and 1.07 (95% CI = 0.95-1.19) for CC, CG, and GG, respectively. The two-step EDGE method identified the rs35352860 SNP in chromosome 18 (SMAD7 intron); greater than median of consumption ORs = 1.18 (95% CI = 1.11-1.24), 1.35 (95% CI = 1.26-1.44), and 1.46 (95% CI = 1.26-1.69) for CC, CT, and TT, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

We propose two novel biomarkers that support the role of meat consumption with an increased risk of colorectal cancer.

IMPACT

The reported GxE interactions may explain the increased risk of colorectal cancer in certain population subgroups.

Serum Urate and Recurrent Gout

Importance

Approximately 12 million adults in the US have a history of gout, but whether serum urate levels can help predict recurrence is unclear.

Objective

To assess associations of a single serum urate measurement with subsequent risk of acute gout flares and subsequent risk of hospitalizations for gout among patients in the UK with a history of gout.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective study included patients with a history of gout identified from the UK between 2006 and 2010 who were followed up through Primary Care Linked Data medical record linkage until 2017 and through the Hospital Episode Statistics database until 2020.

Exposures

Serum urate levels at enrollment.

Main Outcome and Measure

Rate of recurrent acute gout, ascertained by hospitalization, outpatient, and prescription/procedure records, and adjusted rate ratios using negative binomial regressions.

Results

Among 3613 patients with gout (mean age, 60 years; 3104 [86%] men), 1773 gout flares occurred over a mean follow-up of 8.3 years. Of these, 1679 acute gout flares (95%) occurred in people with baseline serum urate greater than or equal to 6 mg/dL and 1731 (98%) occurred in people with baseline serum urate greater than or equal to 5 mg/dL. Rates of acute gout flares per 1000 person-years were 10.6 for participants with baseline urate levels less than 6 mg/dL, 40.1 for levels of 6.0 to 6.9 mg/dL, 82.0 for levels of 7.0 to 7.9 mg/dL, 101.3 for levels of 8.0 to 8.9 mg/dL, 125.3 for urate levels of 9.0 to 9.9 mg/dL, and 132.8 for levels greater than or equal to 10 mg/dL. Rate ratio of flares were 1.0, 3.37, 6.93, 8.67, 10.81, and 11.42, respectively, over 10 years (1.61 [1.54-1.68] per mg/dL). Rates of hospitalization per 1000 person-years during follow-up were 0.18 for those with baseline serum urate less than 6 mg/dL, 0.97 for serum urate of 6.0 to 6.9 mg/dL, 1.8 for serum urate of 7.0 to 7.9 mg/dL, 2.2 for serum urate of 8.0 to 8.9 mg/dL, 6.7 for serum urate of 9.0 to 9.9 mg/dL, and 9.7 for serum urate greater than or equal to 10 mg/dL. Rate ratios of hospitalization for gout, adjusting for age, sex, and race were 1.0, 4.70, 8.94, 10.37, 33.92, and 45.29, respectively (1.87 [1.57-2.23] per mg/dL).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this retrospective study of patients with a history of gout, serum urate levels at baseline were associated with the risk of subsequent gout flares and rates of hospitalization for recurrent gout. These findings support using a baseline serum urate level to assess risk of recurrent gout over nearly 10 years of follow-up.

Genome-wide interaction analysis of folate for colorectal cancer risk

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological and experimental evidence suggests that higher folate intake is associated with decreased colorectal cancer (CRC) risk; however, the mechanisms underlying this relationship are not fully understood. Genetic variation that may have a direct or indirect impact on folate metabolism can provide insights into folate's role in CRC.

OBJECTIVES

Our aim was to perform a genome-wide interaction analysis to identify genetic variants that may modify the association of folate on CRC risk.

METHODS

We applied traditional case-control logistic regression, joint 3-degree of freedom, and a 2-step weighted hypothesis approach to test the interactions of common variants (allele frequency >1%) across the genome and dietary folate, folic acid supplement use, and total folate in relation to risk of CRC in 30,550 cases and 42,336 controls from 51 studies from 3 genetic consortia (CCFR, CORECT, GECCO).

RESULTS

Inverse associations of dietary, total folate, and folic acid supplement with CRC were found (odds ratio [OR]: 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.90, 0.96; and 0.91; 95% CI: 0.89, 0.94 per quartile higher intake, and 0.82 (95% CI: 0.78, 0.88) for users compared with nonusers, respectively). Interactions (P-interaction < 5×10-8) of folic acid supplement and variants in the 3p25.2 locus (in the region of Synapsin II [SYN2]/tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 4 [TIMP4]) were found using traditional interaction analysis, with variant rs150924902 (located upstream to SYN2) showing the strongest interaction. In stratified analyses by rs150924902 genotypes, folate supplementation was associated with decreased CRC risk among those carrying the TT genotype (OR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.79, 0.86) but increased CRC risk among those carrying the TA genotype (OR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.29, 2.05), suggesting a qualitative interaction (P-interaction = 1.4×10-8). No interactions were observed for dietary and total folate.

CONCLUSIONS

Variation in 3p25.2 locus may modify the association of folate supplement with CRC risk. Experimental studies and studies incorporating other relevant omics data are warranted to validate this finding.

Prediagnostic Glycoprotein Acetyl Levels and Incident and Recurrent Flare Risk Accounting for Serum Urate Levels: A Population-Based, Prospective Study and Mendelian Randomization Analysis

OBJECTIVE

To prospectively investigate population-based metabolomics for incident gout and reproduce the findings for recurrent flares, accounting for serum urate.

METHODS

We conducted a prediagnostic metabolome-wide analysis among 105,615 UK Biobank participants with nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomic profiling data (168 total metabolites) from baseline blood samples collected 2006-2010 in those without history of gout. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for incident gout, adjusted for gout risk factors, excluding and including serum urate levels, overall and according to fasting duration before sample collection. Potential causal effects were tested with 2-sample Mendelian randomization. Poisson regression was used to calculate rate ratios (RRs) for the association with recurrent flares among incident gout cases.

RESULTS

Correcting for multiple testing, 88 metabolites were associated with risk of incident gout (N = 1,303 cases) before serum urate adjustment, including glutamine and glycine (inversely), and lipids, branched-chain amino acids, and most prominently, glycoprotein acetyls (GlycA; P = 9.17 × 10-32 ). Only GlycA remained associated with incident gout following urate adjustment (HR 1.52 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.22-1.88] between extreme quintiles); the HR increased progressively with fasting duration before sample collection, reaching 4.01 (95% CI 1.36-11.82) for ≥8 hours of fasting. Corresponding HRs per SD change in GlycA levels were 1.10 (95% CI 1.04-1.17) overall and 1.54 (95% CI 1.21-1.96) for ≥8 hours of fasting. GlycA levels were also associated with recurrent gout flares among incident gout cases (RR 1.90 [95% CI 1.27-2.85] between extreme quintiles) with larger associations with fasting. Mendelian randomization corroborated a potential causal role for GlycA on gout risk.

CONCLUSION

This prospective, population-based study implicates GlycA, a stable long-term biomarker reflecting neutrophil overactivity, in incident and recurrent gout flares (central manifestation from neutrophilic synovitis) beyond serum urate.

An epidemiological introduction to human metabolomic investigations

Metabolomics holds great promise for uncovering insights around biological processes impacting disease in human epidemiological studies. Metabolites can be measured across biological samples, including plasma, serum, saliva, urine, stool, and whole organs and tissues, offering a means to characterize metabolic processes relevant to disease etiology and traits of interest. Metabolomic epidemiology studies face unique challenges, such as identifying metabolites from targeted and untargeted assays, defining standards for quality control, harmonizing results across platforms that often capture different metabolites, and developing statistical methods for high-dimensional and correlated metabolomic data. In this review, we introduce metabolomic epidemiology to the broader scientific community, discuss opportunities and challenges presented by these studies, and highlight emerging innovations that hold promise to uncover new biological insights.

A Genetic Locus within the FMN1/GREM1 Gene Region Interacts with Body Mass Index in Colorectal Cancer Risk

Colorectal cancer risk can be impacted by genetic, environmental, and lifestyle factors, including diet and obesity. Gene-environment interactions (G × E) can provide biological insights into the effects of obesity on colorectal cancer risk. Here, we assessed potential genome-wide G × E interactions between body mass index (BMI) and common SNPs for colorectal cancer risk using data from 36,415 colorectal cancer cases and 48,451 controls from three international colorectal cancer consortia (CCFR, CORECT, and GECCO). The G × E tests included the conventional logistic regression using multiplicative terms (one degree of freedom, 1DF test), the two-step EDGE method, and the joint 3DF test, each of which is powerful for detecting G × E interactions under specific conditions. BMI was associated with higher colorectal cancer risk. The two-step approach revealed a statistically significant G×BMI interaction located within the Formin 1/Gremlin 1 (FMN1/GREM1) gene region (rs58349661). This SNP was also identified by the 3DF test, with a suggestive statistical significance in the 1DF test. Among participants with the CC genotype of rs58349661, overweight and obesity categories were associated with higher colorectal cancer risk, whereas null associations were observed across BMI categories in those with the TT genotype. Using data from three large international consortia, this study discovered a locus in the FMN1/GREM1 gene region that interacts with BMI on the association with colorectal cancer risk. Further studies should examine the potential mechanisms through which this locus modifies the etiologic link between obesity and colorectal cancer.

SIGNIFICANCE

This gene-environment interaction analysis revealed a genetic locus in FMN1/GREM1 that interacts with body mass index in colorectal cancer risk, suggesting potential implications for precision prevention strategies.

Interactions Between Genetic Risk and Diet Influencing Risk of Incident Female Gout: Discovery and Replication Analysis of Four Prospective Cohorts

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether the cross-sectional gene-diet interaction for prevalent hyperuricemia among women translates prospectively to risk of incident female gout.

METHODS

We analyzed the interaction between genetic predisposition and adherence to a healthy dietary pattern (i.e., Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension [DASH] score) on risk of incident female gout in 18,244 women from Nurses' Health Study (NHS; discovery) and 136,786 women from 3 additional prospective female cohorts from the US and UK (replication). Genetic risk score (GRS) was calculated from 114 urate-associated loci.

RESULTS

In the NHS and replication cohorts, association between diet and gout risk was larger and stronger among women with higher genetic risk. In all cohorts combined, compared to women with an unhealthy DASH score (less than the mean score), multivariable relative risk (RR) for incident gout among women with a healthy DASH score (greater than/equal to the mean score) was 0.67 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.60-0.76) among higher GRS (greater than/equal to the mean score) and 0.91 (0.78-1.05) among lower GRS (P for multiplicative interaction = 0.001); multivariable RR for higher versus lower GRS was 2.03 (95% CI 1.80-2.29) and 1.50 (95% CI 1.31-1.71) among unhealthy and healthy DASH score groups, respectively. Additive interaction was also significant, in both the discovery and replication cohorts (P < 0.001), with 51% of the excess risk attributable to the additive gene-diet interaction in all cohorts combined.

CONCLUSION

The deleterious effect of genetic predisposition on risk of incident female gout was more pronounced among women with unhealthy diets, with nearly half the excess risk attributable to this gene-diet interaction. These data elucidate the important synergy of genetics and diet for female gout development.

Serum Fibroblast Growth Factor-21 Discriminates Between Decompensated Alcohol-Associated Cirrhosis and Severe Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis

INTRODUCTION

We hypothesized that fibroblast growth factor-21 (FGF-21) would be highly expressed in patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) and could be a novel and biologically relevant predictive biomarker to reliably distinguish severe AH and decompensated alcohol-associated cirrhosis (AC).

METHODS

We identified a discovery cohort of 88 subjects with alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) of varying disease severity from our ALD repository. Our validation cohort consisted of 37 patients with a biopsy-proven diagnosis of AH, AC, or absence of ALD with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores ≥10. Serum from both groups during index hospitalization was assayed for FGF-21 by ELISA. We performed receiver operating characteristic analysis and prediction modeling in both cohorts to discriminate between AH and AC in high Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (≥20) patients.

RESULTS

In both cohorts, FGF-21 concentrations were highest in subjects with moderate to severe AH compared with those having alcohol use disorder or AC (mean: 2,609 pg/mL, P < 0.0001). The discovery cohort area under the curve of FGF-21 between AH and AC was 0.81 (95% confidence interval: 0.65-0.98, P < 0.01). In the validation cohort, FGF-21 levels were higher in severe AH compared with AC (3,052 vs 1,235 pg/mL, P = 0.03), and the area under the curve was 0.76 (95% confidence interval: 0.56-0.96, P < 0.03). A survival analysis showed that patients with FGF-21 serum levels in the second interquartile had the highest survival compared with all other quartiles.

DISCUSSION

FGF-21 performs well as a predictive biomarker to distinguish severe AH from AC and may be helpful in the management and clinical investigation of patients with severe alcohol-associated liver diseases.

Nationwide racial/ethnic disparities in US emergency department visits and hospitalizations for gout

OBJECTIVES

Gout prevalence is reportedly ∼20% higher in US Black adults than Whites, but racial differences in emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations for gout are unknown. We evaluated the latest US national utilization datasets according to racial/ethnic groups.

METHODS

Using 2019 US National Emergency Department Sample and National Inpatient Sample databases, we compared racial/ethnic differences in annual population rates of ED visits and hospitalizations for gout (primary discharge diagnosis) per 100 000 US adults (using 2019 age- and sex-specific US census data). We also examined rates of ED visits and hospitalizations for gout among all US ED visits/hospitalizations and mean costs for each gout encounter.

RESULTS

Compared with White patients, the per capita age- and sex-adjusted rate ratio (RR) of gout primary ED visits for Black patients was 5.01 (95% CI 4.96, 5.06), for Asian patients 1.29 (1.26, 1.31) and for Hispanic patients 1.12 (1.10, 1.13). RRs for gout primary hospitalizations were 4.07 (95% CI 3.90, 4.24), 1.46 (1.34, 1.58) and 1.06 (0.99, 1.13), respectively. Corresponding RRs among total US hospitalizations were 3.17 (95% CI 2.86, 3.50), 3.23 (2.71, 3.85) and 1.43 (1.21, 1.68) and among total ED visits were 2.66 (95% CI, 2.50, 2.82), 3.28 (2.64, 4.08), and 1.14 (1.05, 1.24), respectively. RRs were largest among Black women. Costs for ED visits and hospitalizations experienced by race/ethnicity showed similar disparities.

CONCLUSIONS

These first nationwide data found a substantial excess in both gout primary ED visits and hospitalizations experienced by all underserved racial/ethnic groups, particularly by Black women, revealing an urgent need for improved care to eliminate inequities in gout outcomes.

Application of Mendelian randomization to explore the causal role of the human gut microbiome in colorectal cancer

The role of the human gut microbiome in colorectal cancer (CRC) is unclear as most studies on the topic are unable to discern correlation from causation. We apply two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) to estimate the causal relationship between the gut microbiome and CRC. We used summary-level data from independent genome-wide association studies to estimate the causal effect of 14 microbial traits (n = 3890 individuals) on overall CRC (55,168 cases, 65,160 controls) and site-specific CRC risk, conducting several sensitivity analyses to understand the nature of results. Initial MR analysis suggested that a higher abundance of Bifidobacterium and presence of an unclassified group of bacteria within the Bacteroidales order in the gut increased overall and site-specific CRC risk. However, sensitivity analyses suggested that instruments used to estimate relationships were likely complex and involved in many potential horizontal pleiotropic pathways, demonstrating that caution is needed when interpreting MR analyses with gut microbiome exposures. In assessing reverse causality, we did not find strong evidence that CRC causally affected these microbial traits. Whilst our study initially identified potential causal roles for two microbial traits in CRC, importantly, further exploration of these relationships highlighted that these were unlikely to reflect causality.

Trends in Prevalence of Gout Among US Asian Adults, 2011-2018

Importance

Gout disparities among Black individuals in the US have recently been explained by socioclinical factors; however, no information is available among Asian individuals living in Western countries, despite their disproportionately worsening metabolic health.

Objective

To determine the prevalence of gout and serum urate concentrations according to race and ethnicity and to explore the association of social determinants of health and clinical factors.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This is a population-based, cross-sectional analysis. Data from a nationally representative sample of US adults were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (2011-2018) in which Asian race data were collected (primary). Data from the UK Biobank (2006-2021) were used for replication of the Asian vs White differences. Data analysis was performed from December 2021 to September 2022.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Race-specific gout prevalence and serum urate levels.

Results

A total of 22 621 participants from NHANES (2011-2018) were included in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 49.8 [17.8] years; 10 948 male participants [48.4%]). In 2017 to 2018, gout affected 12.1 million US individuals, with its crude prevalence increasing from 3.6% (95% CI, 2.8%-4.5%) in 2011 to 2012 to 5.1% (95% CI, 4.2%-5.9%) in 2017 to 2018 (P for trend = .03); this trend was no longer significant after age adjustment (P for trend = .06) or excluding Asian individuals (P for trend = .11). During the same period, age- and sex-adjusted prevalence among Asian Americans doubled from 3.3% (95% CI, 2.1%-4.5%) to 6.6% (95% CI, 4.4%-8.8%) (P for trend = .007) to numerically exceed all other racial and ethnic groups in 2017 to 2018, with age- and sex-adjusted odds ratio (ORs) of 1.61 (95% CI, 1.03-2.51) and a socioclinical factor-adjusted multivariable OR of 2.62 (95% CI, 1.59-4.33) for Asian vs White individuals. The latest age- and sex-adjusted gout prevalence among US individuals aged 65 years and older was 10.0% among White individuals and 14.8% among Asian individuals (including 23.6% of Asian men). Serum urate concentrations also increased between 2011 and 2018 among US Asian individuals (P for trend = .009). The Asian vs White disparity was also present in the UK Biobank.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this study suggest that the prevalence of gout among Asian individuals numerically surpassed that for all other racial and ethnic groups in 2017 to 2018. This Asian vs White disparity did not appear to be associated with socioclinical factors.

Appendectomy and Future Risk of Microscopic Colitis: A Population-Based Case-Control Study in Sweden

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Microscopic colitis (MC) is an inflammatory bowel disease and a common cause of chronic diarrhea. Appendectomy has been suggested to have immunomodulating effects in the colon, influencing the risk of gastrointestinal disease. The relationship between appendectomy and MC has only been sparsely studied.

METHODS

This was a case-control study based on the nationwide ESPRESSO (Epidemiology Strengthened by histoPathology Reports in Sweden) cohort, consisting of histopathological examinations in Sweden, linked to national registers. Patients with MC were matched to population controls by age, sex, calendar year of biopsy, and county of residence. Data on antecedent appendectomy and comorbidities were retrieved from the Patient Register. Unconditional logistic regression models were conducted presenting odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) adjusted for country of birth and matching factors. Further subanalyses were made based on MC subtypes (lymphocytic colitis and collagenous colitis), follow-up time postappendectomy and severity of appendicitis.

RESULTS

The study included 14,520 cases of MC and 69,491 controls, among these 7.6% (n = 1103) and 5.1% (n = 3510), respectively, had a previous appendectomy ≥1 year prior to MC or matching date. Patients with a previous appendectomy had an increased risk of MC in total (OR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.40-1.61) and per the collagenous colitis subtype (OR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.48-1.88) or lymphocytic colitis subtype (OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.30-1.55). The risk remained elevated throughout follow-up, and the highest risk was observed in noncomplicated appendicitis.

CONCLUSIONS

This nationwide case-control study found a modestly increased risk of developing MC following appendectomy.

Gallstones and risk of cancers of the liver, biliary tract and pancreas: a prospective study within two U.S. cohorts

BACKGROUND

Gallstones may result in inflammation, altered bile flow, and changes in metabolic hormone levels, thereby increasing cancer risk. However, previous studies for gallstones and cancers of the liver, biliary tract and pancreas in the U.S. were relatively limited.

METHODS

We followed 115,036 women from the Nurses' Health Study (1982-2012) and 49,729 men from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2012). History of gallstones, including with or without performed cholecystectomy, was reported at baseline and updated through biennial questionnaires. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to calculate multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs).

RESULTS

During up to 30-year follow-up, we identified 204 incidents of liver cancer, 225 biliary tract cancer and 1147 pancreatic cancer cases. Compared to those without gallstones diagnosis, the multivariable HRs for individuals with gallstones (untreated or with cholecystectomy) were 1.60 for liver cancer (95% CI: 1.14-2.26), 4.79 for biliary tract cancer (95% CI: 3.02-7.58), and 1.13 for pancreatic cancer (95% CI: 0.96-1.32). The multivariable HRs for individuals with cholecystectomy were 1.33 for liver cancer (95% CI: 0.90-1.95) and 1.15 for pancreatic cancer (95% CI: 0.98-1.36).

CONCLUSIONS

Gallstones were associated with a higher risk of cancers of the liver, biliary tract and possibly pancreas.

Association of Proton Pump Inhibitor Use With All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The use of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) has increased rapidly in the past 2 decades. Concerns about the regular use of PPIs contributing to mortality have been raised.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study using data collected from the Nurses' Health Study (2004-2018) and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (2004-2018). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for mortality according to PPI use. We used a modified lag-time approach to minimize reverse causation (ie, protopathic bias).

RESULTS

Among 50,156 women and 21,731 men followed for 831,407 person-years and a median of 13.8 years, we documented 22,125 deaths, including 4592 deaths from cancer, 5404 from cardiovascular diseases, and 12,129 deaths from other causes. Compared with nonusers of PPIs, PPI users had significantly higher risks of all-cause mortality (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.13-1.24) and mortality due to cancer (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.17-1.44), cardiovascular diseases (HR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.02-1.26), respiratory diseases (HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.12-1.56), and digestive diseases (HR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.10-2.05). Upon applying lag times of up to 6 years, the associations were attenuated and no longer statistically significant (all-cause: HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.97-1.11; cancer: HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.89-1.28; cardiovascular diseases: HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.81-1.10; respiratory diseases: HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 0.95-1.50; digestive diseases: HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 0.88-2.18). Longer duration of PPI use did not confer higher risks for all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

After accounting for protopathic bias, PPI use was not associated with higher risks of all-cause mortality and mortality due to major causes.

The mental health burden of racial and ethnic minorities during the COVID-19 pandemic

Racial/ethnic minorities have been disproportionately impacted by COVID-19. The effects of COVID-19 on the long-term mental health of minorities remains unclear. To evaluate differences in odds of screening positive for depression and anxiety among various racial and ethnic groups during the latter phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, we performed a cross-sectional analysis of 691,473 participants nested within the prospective smartphone-based COVID Symptom Study in the United States (U.S.) and United Kingdom (U.K). from February 23, 2021 to June 9, 2021. In the U.S. (n=57,187), compared to White participants, the multivariable odds ratios (ORs) for screening positive for depression were 1·16 (95% CI: 1·02 to 1·31) for Black, 1·23 (1·11 to 1·36) for Hispanic, and 1·15 (1·02 to 1·30) for Asian participants, and 1·34 (1·13 to 1·59) for participants reporting more than one race/other even after accounting for personal factors such as prior history of a mental health disorder, COVID-19 infection status, and surrounding lockdown stringency. Rates of screening positive for anxiety were comparable. In the U.K. (n=643,286), racial/ethnic minorities had similarly elevated rates of positive screening for depression and anxiety. These disparities were not fully explained by changes in leisure time activities. Racial/ethnic minorities bore a disproportionate mental health burden during the COVID-19 pandemic. These differences will need to be considered as health care systems transition from prioritizing infection control to mitigating long-term consequences.

Genome-Wide Interaction Analysis of Genetic Variants With Menopausal Hormone Therapy for Colorectal Cancer Risk

BACKGROUND

The use of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) may interact with genetic variants to influence colorectal cancer (CRC) risk.

METHODS

We conducted a genome-wide, gene-environment interaction between single nucleotide polymorphisms and the use of any MHT, estrogen only, and combined estrogen-progestogen therapy with CRC risk, among 28 486 postmenopausal women (11 519 CRC patients and 16 967 participants without CRC) from 38 studies, using logistic regression, 2-step method, and 2- or 3-degree-of-freedom joint test. A set-based score test was applied for rare genetic variants.

RESULTS

The use of any MHT, estrogen only and estrogen-progestogen were associated with a reduced CRC risk (odds ratio [OR] = 0.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.64 to 0.78; OR = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.53 to 0.79; and OR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.59 to 0.90, respectively). The 2-step method identified a statistically significant interaction between a GRIN2B variant rs117868593 and MHT use, whereby MHT-associated CRC risk was statistically significantly reduced in women with the GG genotype (OR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.64 to 0.72) but not within strata of GC or CC genotypes. A statistically significant interaction between a DCBLD1 intronic variant at 6q22.1 (rs10782186) and MHT use was identified by the 2-degree-of-freedom joint test. The MHT-associated CRC risk was reduced with increasing number of rs10782186-C alleles, showing odds ratios of 0.78 (95% CI = 0.70 to 0.87) for TT, 0.68 (95% CI = 0.63 to 0.73) for TC, and 0.66 (95% CI = 0.60 to 0.74) for CC genotypes. In addition, 5 genes in rare variant analysis showed suggestive interactions with MHT (2-sided P < 1.2 × 10-4).

CONCLUSION

Genetic variants that modify the association between MHT and CRC risk were identified, offering new insights into pathways of CRC carcinogenesis and potential mechanisms involved.

Genetic Obesity Variants and Risk of Conventional Adenomas and Serrated Polyps

BACKGROUND

Higher body mass index (BMI) is associated with increased risk of colorectal cancer. How genetically predicted BMI may be associated with colorectal cancer precursors is unknown.

AIMS

Our objective was to quantify the association of genetically predicted and measured BMI with risk of colorectal cancer precursors.

METHODS

We evaluated the association of genetically predicted and measured BMI with risk of conventional adenomas, serrated polyps, and synchronous polyps among 27,426 participants who had undergone at least one lower gastrointestinal endoscopy in the Nurses' Health Study, Nurses' Health Study II, and Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Genetic risk score was derived from 97 BMI-related single nucleotide polymorphisms. Multivariable logistic regression evaluated each polyp subtype compared to non-polyps.

RESULTS

For conventional adenomas, the OR per 2-kg/m² increase was 1.03 (95% CI, 1.01-1.04) for measured BMI and 0.98 (95% CI, 0.88-1.10) for genetically predicted BMI; for serrated polyps, the OR was 1.06 (95% CI, 1.04-1.08) and 1.04 (95% CI, 0.90-1.20), respectively; for synchronous polyps, the OR was 1.10 (95% CI, 1.07-1.13) and 1.09 (95% CI, 0.89-1.34), respectively. Genetically predicted BMI was associated with synchronous polyps in women (OR = 1.37, 95% CI: 1.05-1.79).

CONCLUSION

Genetically predicted BMI was not associated with colorectal cancer precursor lesions. The confidence intervals were wide and encompassed those for measured BMI, indicating that null findings may be due to insufficient power.

Racial and Sex Disparities in Gout Prevalence Among US Adults

IMPORTANCE

Emerging data suggest gout and hyperuricemia may now be more frequent among Black adults in the US than White adults, especially Black women. However, national-level, sex-specific general population data on racial differences in gout prevalence and potential socioclinical risk factors are lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To identify sex-specific factors driving disparities between Black and White adults in contemporary gout prevalence in the US general population.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional analysis used nationally representative, decadal survey data from successive cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2007 to 2016. Data were analyzed from November 1, 2019, through May 31, 2021. Participants included US adults self-reporting Black or White race.

EXPOSURES

Self-reported race, excess body mass index, chronic kidney disease (CKD; defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2, according to latest equations without race coefficient), poverty, poor-quality diet, low educational level, alcohol consumption, and diuretic use.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Race- and sex-specific prevalence of physician- or clinician-diagnosed gout and hyperuricemia and their differences before and after adjusting for potential socioclinical risk factors.

RESULTS

A total of 18 693 participants were included in the analysis, consisting of 3304 Black women (mean [SD] age, 44.8 [0.4] years), 6195 White women (mean [SD] age, 49.8 [0.3] years), 3085 Black men (mean [SD] age, 43.6 [0.5] years]), and 6109 White men (mean [SD] age, 48.2 [0.3] years). Age-standardized prevalence of gout was 3.5% (95% CI, 2.7%-4.3%) in Black women and 2.0% (95% CI, 1.5%-2.5%) in White women (age-adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.81 [95% CI, 1.29-2.53]); prevalence was 7.0% (95% CI, 6.2%-7.9%) in Black men and 5.4% (95% CI, 4.7%-6.2%) in White men (age-adjusted OR, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.02-1.55]). These associations attenuated after adjusting for poverty, diet, body mass index, and CKD among women and for diet and CKD among men but became null after adjusting for all risk factors (ORs, 1.05 [95% CI, 0.67-1.65] among women and 1.05 [95% CI, 0.80-1.35] among men). Hyperuricemia end point findings were similar.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this nationally representative race- and sex-specific cross-sectional study of US adults, gout was more prevalent in adults self-reporting Black race during a recent 10-year period compared with their White counterparts. These racial differences may be explained by sex-specific differences in diet and social determinants of health and clinical factors. Culturally informed efforts focusing on these factors could reduce current gout-related disparities.

Aspirin and the Risk of Colorectal Cancer According to Genetic Susceptibility among Older Individuals

Although aspirin has been considered a promising agent for prevention of colorectal cancer, recent data suggest a lack of benefit among older individuals. Whether some individuals with higher risk of colorectal cancer may benefit from aspirin remains unknown. We used a 95-variant colorectal cancer polygenic risk score (PRS) to explore the association between genetic susceptibility to colorectal cancer and aspirin use in a prospective study of 12,609 individuals of European descent ages ≥70 years, enrolled in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) double-blinded, placebo-controlled randomized trial (randomized controlled trial; RCT). Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association of aspirin use on colorectal cancer, as well as the interaction between the PRS and aspirin treatment on colorectal cancer. Over a median of 4.7 years follow-up, 143 participants were diagnosed with incident colorectal cancer. Aspirin assignment was not associated with incidence of colorectal cancer overall [HR = 0.94; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.68-1.30] or within strata of PRS (P for interaction = 0.97). However, the PRS was associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (HR = 1.28 per SD; 95% CI, 1.09-1.51). Individuals in the top quintile of the PRS distribution had an 85% higher risk compared with individuals in the bottom quintile (HR = 1.85; 95% CI, 1.08-3.15). In a prospective RCT of older individuals, a PRS is associated with incident colorectal cancer risk, but aspirin use was not associated with a reduction of incident colorectal cancer, regardless of baseline genetic risk.

PREVENTION RELEVANCE

There is strong evidence to support prophylactic aspirin use for the prevention of colorectal cancer. However recent recommendations suggest the risk of bleeding in older individuals outweighs the benefit. We sought to determine whether some older individuals might still benefit from aspirin based on their genetic susceptibility.

Beyond GWAS of Colorectal Cancer: Evidence of Interaction with Alcohol Consumption and Putative Causal Variant for the 10q24.2 Region

BACKGROUND

Currently known associations between common genetic variants and colorectal cancer explain less than half of its heritability of 25%. As alcohol consumption has a J-shape association with colorectal cancer risk, nondrinking and heavy drinking are both risk factors for colorectal cancer.

METHODS

Individual-level data was pooled from the Colon Cancer Family Registry, Colorectal Transdisciplinary Study, and Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium to compare nondrinkers (≤1 g/day) and heavy drinkers (>28 g/day) with light-to-moderate drinkers (1-28 g/day) in GxE analyses. To improve power, we implemented joint 2df and 3df tests and a novel two-step method that modifies the weighted hypothesis testing framework. We prioritized putative causal variants by predicting allelic effects using support vector machine models.

RESULTS

For nondrinking as compared with light-to-moderate drinking, the hybrid two-step approach identified 13 significant SNPs with pairwise r2 > 0.9 in the 10q24.2/COX15 region. When stratified by alcohol intake, the A allele of lead SNP rs2300985 has a dose-response increase in risk of colorectal cancer as compared with the G allele in light-to-moderate drinkers [OR for GA genotype = 1.11; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.06-1.17; OR for AA genotype = 1.22; 95% CI, 1.14-1.31], but not in nondrinkers or heavy drinkers. Among the correlated candidate SNPs in the 10q24.2/COX15 region, rs1318920 was predicted to disrupt an HNF4 transcription factor binding motif.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that the association with colorectal cancer in 10q24.2/COX15 observed in genome-wide association study is strongest in nondrinkers. We also identified rs1318920 as the putative causal regulatory variant for the region.

IMPACT

The study identifies multifaceted evidence of a possible functional effect for rs1318920.

Obesity, Adiposity, and Risk of Symptomatic Gallstone Disease According to Genetic Susceptibility

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Adiposity has been consistently associated with gallstone disease risk. We aimed to characterize associations of anthropometric measures (body mass index [BMI], recent weight change, long-term weight change, waist circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio) with symptomatic gallstone disease according to strata of gallstone disease polygenic risk score (PRS).

METHODS

We conducted analysis among 34,626 participants with available genome-wide genetic data within 3 large, prospective, U.S. cohorts-the Nurses' Health Study (NHS), Health Professionals Follow-Up Study, and NHS II. We characterized joint associations of PRS and anthropometric measures and tested for interactions on the relative and absolute risk scales.

RESULTS

Women in the highest BMI and PRS categories (BMI ≥30 kg/m² and PRS ≥1 SD above mean) had odds ratio for gallstone disease of 5.55 (95% confidence interval, 5.29 to 5.81) compared with those in the lowest BMI and PRS categories (BMI <25 kg/m² and PRS <1 SD below the mean). The corresponding odds ratio among men was 1.65 (95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 2.29). Associations for BMI did not vary within strata of PRS on the relative risk scale. On the absolute risk scale, the incidence rate difference between obese and normal-weight individuals was 1086 per 100,000 person-years within the highest PRS category, compared with 666 per 100,000 person-years in the lowest PRS category, with strong evidence for interaction with the ABCG8 locus.

CONCLUSIONS

While maintenance of a healthy body weight reduces gallstone disease risk among all individuals, risk reduction is higher among the subset with greater genetic susceptibility to gallstone disease.

Plasma metabolomic profiles for colorectal cancer precursors in women

How metabolome changes influence the early process of colorectal cancer (CRC) development remains unknown. We conducted a 1:2 matched nested case-control study to examine the associations of pre-diagnostic plasma metabolome (profiled using LC-MS) with risk of CRC precursors, including conventional adenomas (n = 586 vs. 1141) and serrated polyps (n = 509 vs. 993), in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and NHSII. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). We used the permutation-based Westfall and Young approach to account for multiple testing. Subgroup analyses were performed for advanced conventional adenomas (defined as at least one adenoma of ≥ 10 mm or with high-grade dysplasia, or tubulovillous or villous histology) and high-risk serrated polyps that were located in the proximal colon or with size of ≥ 10 mm. After multiple testing correction, among 207 metabolites, higher levels of C36:3 phosphatidylcholine (PC) plasmalogen were associated with lower risk of conventional adenomas, with the OR (95% CI) comparing the 90th to the 10th percentile of 0.62 (0.48-0.81); C54:8 triglyceride (TAG) was associated with higher risk of serrated polyps (OR = 1.79, 95% CI: 1.31-2.43), and phenylacetylglutamine (PAG) was associated with lower risk (OR = 0.57, 95% CI:0.43-0.77). PAG was also inversely associated with advanced adenomas (OR = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.36-0.89) and high-risk serrated polyps (OR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.32-0.89), although the multiple testing-corrected p value was > 0.05. Our findings suggest potential roles of lipid metabolism and phenylacetylglutamine, a microbial metabolite, in the early stage of colorectal carcinogenesis, particularly for the serrated pathway.

Adherence to 2020 to 2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans and the Risk of New-Onset Female Gout

IMPORTANCE

Female-specific gout data are scarce despite perceived differences from males in its risk factors and disproportionate worsening in disease and comorbidity burden globally. The 2020 to 2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans recommend multiple healthy eating patterns for prevention of cardiovascular-metabolic outcomes, which may also be relevant to the prevention of female gout.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the associations of dietary scores for the latest guideline-based healthy eating patterns with risk of incident female gout.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This prospective cohort study included 80 039 US women in the Nurses' Health Study followed up through questionnaires every 2 years starting from 1984. Participants had no history of gout at baseline, and the study used questionnaire responses through 2018. Statistical analyses were performed over September 2020 to August 2021.

EXPOSURES

Four healthy eating patterns: Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH), Alternate Mediterranean Diet Score, Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI), and Prudent, plus Western (unhealthy) for comparison, with scores derived from validated food frequency questionnaires.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Incident, physician-diagnosed female-specific gout.

RESULTS

During 34 years of follow-up, we documented 3890 cases of incident female gout. Compared with the least-adherent quintile, women most adherent to healthy diets had significantly lower risk of incident gout, with multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) 0.68 (95% CI, 0.61-0.76) (DASH), 0.88 (95% CI, 0.80-0.98) (Mediterranean), 0.79 (95% CI, 0.71-0.89) (AHEI), and 0.75 (95% CI, 0.73-0.90) (Prudent); all P for trend ≤.009. Conversely, women with highest-quintile Western diet score had 49% higher risk of gout (HR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.33-1.68], P <.001). When combined, the most DASH-diet adherent women with normal body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) had a 68% lower risk of gout compared with the least adherent women with overweight or obese BMI; the corresponding risk reduction was 65% combining high DASH diet adherence with no diuretic use.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These large-scale, long-term prospective cohort findings extend the pleotropic benefits of the 2020 to 2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans to female gout prevention, with multiple healthy diets that can be adapted to individual food traditions, preferences, and comorbidities.

Self-reported COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and uptake among participants from different racial and ethnic groups in the United States and United Kingdom

Worldwide, racial and ethnic minorities have been disproportionately impacted by COVID-19 with increased risk of infection, its related complications, and death. In the initial phase of population-based vaccination in the United States (U.S.) and United Kingdom (U.K.), vaccine hesitancy may result in differences in uptake. We performed a cohort study among U.S. and U.K. participants who volunteered to take part in the smartphone-based COVID Symptom Study (March 2020-February 2021) and used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios of vaccine hesitancy and uptake. In the U.S. (n = 87,388), compared to white participants, vaccine hesitancy was greater for Black and Hispanic participants and those reporting more than one or other race. In the U.K. (n = 1,254,294), racial and ethnic minority participants showed similar levels of vaccine hesitancy to the U.S. However, associations between participant race and ethnicity and levels of vaccine uptake were observed to be different in the U.S. and the U.K. studies. Among U.S. participants, vaccine uptake was significantly lower among Black participants, which persisted among participants that self-reported being vaccine-willing. In contrast, statistically significant racial and ethnic disparities in vaccine uptake were not observed in the U.K sample. In this study of self-reported vaccine hesitancy and uptake, lower levels of vaccine uptake in Black participants in the U.S. during the initial vaccine rollout may be attributable to both hesitancy and disparities in access.

Gall Bladder Disease and the Risk of Small Bowel Cancer—Results from a Nationwide Swedish Cohort Study

Simple Summary

Gallbladder disease (GBD) has been linked to small bowel cancer, but earlier reports have been based on a few cancer cases and no previous studies have adjusted for potential confounders. We report a 1.4-fold increased risk of small bowel adenocarcinoma, 1.8-fold increased risk of adenomas, and a 2.1-fold increased risk of carcinoids in patients with GBD compared to matched comparators. Absolute risks were low, however (<1 per 1000 patients followed for 10 years) for all three outcomes. We lacked detailed data on body mass index, cigarette smoking, and GBD biomarkers. Further results from an observational study, like ours, cannot establish a causal relationship or rule out the presence of residual confounding. The increased risk of carcinoid, seen 11–16 years after GBD diagnosis, may represent an etiologically plausible causal link to carcinoid development and warrants further study. The reported low absolute risks argue against targeted surveillance for small bowel cancer after GBD diagnosis. In conclusion, this study reports a moderately increased relative risk of small bowel cancers and adenomas in patients with GBD; absolute risks were however low.

Abstract

Background and aims: Small bowel cancer is a rare but rising malignancy. The etiology is poorly understood and there is a need for large-scale studies. Gallbladder disease (GBD), inducing localized inflammation, has been suggested to increase small bowel cancer risk. Methods: We retrieved nationwide data from Sweden’s 28 pathology departments on all adults (age 20–79) with pathology-confirmed GBD diagnosed in 1965–2017. In total 156,390 GBD patients were matched with up to 5 matched comparators from the general population and follow-up started one year after GBD diagnosis. We used stratified Cox regression to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for small bowel adenocarcinoma, adenomas, and carcinoids. Results: During a median follow-up of 12 years, we identified 92 small bowel adenocarcinomas, 132 adenomas, and 81 carcinoid tumors in the GBD cohort. Corresponding incidence rates were 4.8, 6.9, and 4.2 per 100,000 person-years (PY), compared to 3.2, 3.2, and 1.8 in matched comparators. The adjusted HR was 1.42 (95% CI = 1.08–1.87) for small bowel adenocarcinoma, 1.79 (95% CI = 1.41–2.27) for adenoma, and 2.07 (95% CI = 1.52–2.81) for carcinoid. The excess cancer risk was most pronounced during the first year of follow-up for adenocarcinomas and during the first six years for adenomas while for carcinoids the HR peaked 10–15 years after start of follow-up. Conclusions: In this nationwide cohort study, GBD was associated with an increased risk of small bowel cancer. The excess risk of small bowel adenocarcinoma was mainly seen during the first years of follow-up while small bowel carcinoid risk peaked 11–16 years after GBD diagnosis.

Impact of adiposity on risk of female gout among those genetically predisposed: sex-specific prospective cohort study findings over >32 years

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the joint (combined) association of excess adiposity and genetic predisposition with the risk of incident female gout, and compare to their male counterparts; and determine the proportion attributable to body mass index (BMI) only, genetic risk score (GRS) only, and to their interaction.

METHODS

We prospectively investigated potential gene-BMI interactions in 18 244 women from the Nurses' Health Study and compared with 10 888 men from the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study. GRS for hyperuricaemia was derived from 114 common urate-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms.

RESULTS

Multivariable relative risk (RR) for female gout was 1.49 (95% CI 1.42 to 1.56) per 5 kg/m² increment of BMI and 1.43 (1.35 to 1.52) per SD increment in the GRS. For their joint association of BMI and GRS, RR was 2.18 (2.03 to 2.36), more than the sum of each individual factor, indicating significant interaction on an additive scale (p for interaction <0.001). The attributable proportions of joint effect for female gout were 42% (37% to 46%) to adiposity, 37% (32% to 42%) to genetic predisposition and 22% (16% to 28%) to their interaction. Additive interaction among men was smaller although still significant (p interaction 0.002, p for heterogeneity 0.04 between women and men), and attributable proportion of joint effect was 14% (6% to 22%).

CONCLUSIONS

While excess adiposity and genetic predisposition both are strongly associated with a higher risk of gout, the excess risk of both combined was higher than the sum of each, particularly among women.

A Polygenic Risk Score Predicts Incident Prostate Cancer Risk in Older Men but Does Not Select for Clinically Significant Disease

Despite the high prevalence of prostate cancer in older men, the predictive value of a polygenic risk score (PRS) remains uncertain in men aged ≥70 years. We used a 6.6 million-variant PRS to predict the risk of incident prostate cancer in a prospective study of 5701 men of European descent aged ≥70 years (mean age 75 years) enrolled in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) clinical trial. The study endpoint was prostate cancer, including metastatic or non-metastatic disease, confirmed by an expert panel. After excluding participants with a history of prostate cancer at enrolment, we used a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model to assess the association between the PRS and incident prostate cancer risk, adjusting for covariates. Additionally, we examined the distribution of Gleason grade groups by PRS group to determine if a higher PRS was associated with higher grade disease. We tested for interaction between the PRS and aspirin treatment. Logistic regression was used to independently assess the association of the PRS with prevalent (pre-trial) prostate cancer, reported in medical histories. During a median follow-up time of 4.6 years, 218 of the 5701 participants (3.8%) were diagnosed with prostate cancer. The PRS predicted incident risk with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.52 per standard deviation (SD) (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-1.74, p < 0.001). Men in the top quintile of the PRS distribution had an almost three times higher risk of prostate cancer than men in the lowest quintile (HR = 2.99 (95% CI 1.90-4.27), p < 0.001). However, a higher PRS was not associated with a higher Gleason grade groups. We found no interaction between aspirin treatment and the PRS for prostate cancer risk. The PRS was also associated with prevalent prostate cancer (odds ratio = 1.80 per SD (95% CI 1.65-1.96), p < 0.001).While a PRS for prostate cancer is strongly associated with incident risk in men aged ≥70 years, the clinical utility of the PRS as a biomarker is currently limited by its inability to select for clinically significant disease.

Diet quality and risk and severity of COVID-19: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Poor metabolic health and unhealthy lifestyle factors have been associated with risk and severity of COVID-19, but data for diet are lacking. We aimed to investigate the association of diet quality with risk and severity of COVID-19 and its interaction with socioeconomic deprivation.

DESIGN

We used data from 592 571 participants of the smartphone-based COVID-19 Symptom Study. Diet information was collected for the prepandemic period using a short food frequency questionnaire, and diet quality was assessed using a healthful Plant-Based Diet Score, which emphasises healthy plant foods such as fruits or vegetables. Multivariable Cox models were fitted to calculate HRs and 95% CIs for COVID-19 risk and severity defined using a validated symptom-based algorithm or hospitalisation with oxygen support, respectively.

RESULTS

Over 3 886 274 person-months of follow-up, 31 815 COVID-19 cases were documented. Compared with individuals in the lowest quartile of the diet score, high diet quality was associated with lower risk of COVID-19 (HR 0.91; 95% CI 0.88 to 0.94) and severe COVID-19 (HR 0.59; 95% CI 0.47 to 0.74). The joint association of low diet quality and increased deprivation on COVID-19 risk was higher than the sum of the risk associated with each factor alone (Pinteraction=0.005). The corresponding absolute excess rate per 10 000 person/months for lowest vs highest quartile of diet score was 22.5 (95% CI 18.8 to 26.3) among persons living in areas with low deprivation and 40.8 (95% CI 31.7 to 49.8) among persons living in areas with high deprivation.

CONCLUSIONS

A diet characterised by healthy plant-based foods was associated with lower risk and severity of COVID-19. This association may be particularly evident among individuals living in areas with higher socioeconomic deprivation.

Gallstone Disease and Risk of Conventional Adenomas and Serrated Polyps: A Prospective Study

BACKGROUND

Gallstone disease has been associated with colorectal cancer and some form of polyps, although the findings are inconclusive. It remains unknown whether gallstone disease influences the initiation of colorectal cancer.

METHODS

We prospectively assessed the association of gallstone disease with risk of colorectal cancer precursors, including conventional adenomas and serrated polyps, in the Nurses' Health Study (1992-2012), the Nurses' Health Study II (1991-2011), and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1992-2012). Gallstone diseases were assessed using biennial follow-up questionnaires. Self-reported polyp diagnosis was confirmed by review of medical records. Logistic regression models were used to calculate the ORs with adjustment for smoking and other potential confounders.

RESULTS

Among participants who had undergone a total of 323,832 endoscopies, 16.5% had gallstone disease and 11.3% received cholecystectomy. We documented 1,724, 1,212, and 1,943 cases of conventional adenomas and 1,470, 1,090, and 1,643 serrated polyps in patients with gallstones, cholecystectomy, and either of them, respectively. The OR for adenomas was 1.00 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.95-1.06] for gallstones, 0.99 (95% CI: 0.93-1.06) for cholecystectomy, and 1.00 (95% CI: 0.95-1.05) for either exposure. The corresponding ORs for serrated polyps were 0.98 (95% CI: 0.92-1.04), 0.99 (95% CI: 0.93-1.06), and 0.97(95% CI: 0.92-1.03), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Gallstone disease is not associated with colorectal polyps.

IMPACT

Patients with gallstones appear to have similar risk of colorectal polyps compared with those without and may therefore follow average-risk colorectal cancer screening guidelines.

Cardiovascular disease related circulating biomarkers and cancer incidence and mortality: is there an association?

AIMS

Recent studies suggest an association between cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer incidence/mortality, but the pathophysiological mechanisms underlying these associations are unclear. We aimed to examine biomarkers previously associated with CVD and study their association with incident cancer and cancer-related death in a prospective cohort study.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used a proteomic platform to measure 71 cardiovascular biomarkers among 5,032 participants in the Framingham Heart Study who were free of cancer at baseline. We used multivariable-adjusted Cox models to examine the association of circulating protein biomarkers with risk of cancer incidence and mortality. To account for multiple testing, we set a 2-sided false discovery rate (FDR Q-value) <0.05.Growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF15; also known as macrophage inhibitory cytokine-1 [MIC1])) was associated with increased risk of incident cancer (hazards ratio [HR] per 1 standard deviation increment 1.31, 95% CI 1.17-1.47), incident gastrointestinal cancer (HR 1.85, 95% CI 1.37-2.50), incident colorectal cancer (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.29-2.91) and cancer-related death (HR 2.15, 95% CI 1.72-2.70). Stromal cell-derived factor-1 (SFD1) showed an inverse association with cancer-related death (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.65-0.86). Fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF23) showed an association with colorectal cancer (HR 1.55, 95% CI 1.20-2.00), and granulin (GRN) was associated with hematologic cancer (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.30-1.99). Other circulating biomarkers of inflammation, immune activation, metabolism, and fibrosis showed suggestive associations with future cancer diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

We observed several significant associations between circulating CVD biomarkers and cancer, supporting the idea that shared biological pathways underlie both diseases. Further investigations of specific mechanisms that lead to both CVD and cancer are warranted.

TRANSLATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

In our prospective cohort study, baseline levels of biomarkers previously associated with CVD were found to be associated with future development of cancer. In particular, GDF15 was associated with increased risk of cancer incidence and mortality, including gastrointestinal and colorectal cancers; SDF1 was inversely associated with cancer-related death, and FGF23 and GRN were associated with increased risk of colorectal and hematologic cancers, respectively. Other biomarkers of inflammation, immune activation, metabolism, and fibrosis showed suggestive associations. These results suggest potential shared biological pathways that underlie both development of cancer and CVD.

Anosmia, ageusia, and other COVID-19-like symptoms in association with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, across six national digital surveillance platforms: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Multiple voluntary surveillance platforms were developed across the world in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, providing a real-time understanding of population-based COVID-19 epidemiology. During this time, testing criteria broadened and health-care policies matured. We aimed to test whether there were consistent associations of symptoms with SARS-CoV-2 test status across three surveillance platforms in three countries (two platforms per country), during periods of testing and policy changes.

METHODS

For this observational study, we used data of observations from three volunteer COVID-19 digital surveillance platforms (Carnegie Mellon University and University of Maryland Facebook COVID-19 Symptom Survey, ZOE COVID Symptom Study app, and the Corona Israel study) targeting communities in three countries (Israel, the UK, and the USA; two platforms per country). The study population included adult respondents (age 18-100 years at baseline) who were not health-care workers. We did logistic regression of self-reported symptoms on self-reported SARS-CoV-2 test status (positive or negative), adjusted for age and sex, in each of the study cohorts. We compared odds ratios (ORs) across platforms and countries, and we did meta-analyses assuming a random effects model. We also evaluated testing policy changes, COVID-19 incidence, and time scales of duration of symptoms and symptom-to-test time.

FINDINGS

Between April 1 and July 31, 2020, 514 459 tests from over 10 million respondents were recorded in the six surveillance platform datasets. Anosmia-ageusia was the strongest, most consistent symptom associated with a positive COVID-19 test (robust aggregated rank one, meta-analysed random effects OR 16·96, 95% CI 13·13-21·92). Fever (rank two, 6·45, 4·25-9·81), shortness of breath (rank three, 4·69, 3·14-7·01), and cough (rank four, 4·29, 3·13-5·88) were also highly associated with test positivity. The association of symptoms with test status varied by duration of illness, timing of the test, and broader test criteria, as well as over time, by country, and by platform.

INTERPRETATION

The strong association of anosmia-ageusia with self-reported positive SARS-CoV-2 test was consistently observed, supporting its validity as a reliable COVID-19 signal, regardless of the participatory surveillance platform, country, phase of illness, or testing policy. These findings show that associations between COVID-19 symptoms and test positivity ranked similarly in a wide range of scenarios. Anosmia, fever, and respiratory symptoms consistently had the strongest effect estimates and were the most appropriate empirical signals for symptom-based public health surveillance in areas with insufficient testing or benchmarking capacity. Collaborative syndromic surveillance could enhance real-time epidemiological investigations and public health utility globally.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health, National Institute for Health Research, Alzheimer's Society, Wellcome Trust, and Massachusetts Consortium on Pathogen Readiness.

Race, ethnicity, community-level socioeconomic factors, and risk of COVID-19 in the United States and the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

There is limited prior investigation of the combined influence of personal and community-level socioeconomic factors on racial/ethnic disparities in individual risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional analysis nested within a prospective cohort of 2,102,364 participants from March 29, 2020 in the United States (US) and March 24, 2020 in the United Kingdom (UK) through December 02, 2020 via the COVID Symptom Study smartphone application. We examined the contribution of community-level deprivation using the Neighborhood Deprivation Index (NDI) and the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) to observe racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 incidence. ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT04331509.

FINDINGS

Compared with non-Hispanic White participants, the risk for a positive COVID-19 test was increased in the US for non-Hispanic Black (multivariable-adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-1.47) and Hispanic participants (OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.33-1.52) and in the UK for Black (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.02-1.34), South Asian (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.30-1.49), and Middle Eastern participants (OR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.18-1.61). This elevated risk was associated with living in more deprived communities according to the NDI/IMD. After accounting for downstream mediators of COVID-19 risk, community-level deprivation still mediated 16.6% and 7.7% of the excess risk in Black compared to White participants in the US and the UK, respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Our results illustrate the critical role of social determinants of health in the disproportionate COVID-19 risk experienced by racial and ethnic minorities.

Vaccine side-effects and SARS-CoV-2 infection after vaccination in users of the COVID Symptom Study app in the UK: a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

The Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2) and the Oxford-AstraZeneca (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) COVID-19 vaccines have shown excellent safety and efficacy in phase 3 trials. We aimed to investigate the safety and effectiveness of these vaccines in a UK community setting.

METHODS

In this prospective observational study, we examined the proportion and probability of self-reported systemic and local side-effects within 8 days of vaccination in individuals using the COVID Symptom Study app who received one or two doses of the BNT162b2 vaccine or one dose of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine. We also compared infection rates in a subset of vaccinated individuals subsequently tested for SARS-CoV-2 with PCR or lateral flow tests with infection rates in unvaccinated controls. All analyses were adjusted by age (≤55 years vs >55 years), sex, health-care worker status (binary variable), obesity (BMI <30 kg/m2vs ≥30 kg/m2), and comorbidities (binary variable, with or without comorbidities).

FINDINGS

Between Dec 8, and March 10, 2021, 627 383 individuals reported being vaccinated with 655 590 doses: 282 103 received one dose of BNT162b2, of whom 28 207 received a second dose, and 345 280 received one dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. Systemic side-effects were reported by 13·5% (38 155 of 282 103) of individuals after the first dose of BNT162b2, by 22·0% (6216 of 28 207) after the second dose of BNT162b2, and by 33·7% (116 473 of 345 280) after the first dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. Local side-effects were reported by 71·9% (150 023 of 208 767) of individuals after the first dose of BNT162b2, by 68·5% (9025 of 13 179) after the second dose of BNT162b2, and by 58·7% (104 282 of 177 655) after the first dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. Systemic side-effects were more common (1·6 times after the first dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and 2·9 times after the first dose of BNT162b2) among individuals with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection than among those without known past infection. Local effects were similarly higher in individuals previously infected than in those without known past infection (1·4 times after the first dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and 1·2 times after the first dose of BNT162b2). 3106 of 103 622 vaccinated individuals and 50 340 of 464 356 unvaccinated controls tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Significant reductions in infection risk were seen starting at 12 days after the first dose, reaching 60% (95% CI 49-68) for ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and 69% (66-72) for BNT162b2 at 21-44 days and 72% (63-79) for BNT162b2 after 45-59 days.

INTERPRETATION

Systemic and local side-effects after BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccination occur at frequencies lower than reported in phase 3 trials. Both vaccines decrease the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection after 12 days.

FUNDING

ZOE Global, National Institute for Health Research, Chronic Disease Research Foundation, National Institutes of Health, UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, UK Research and Innovation, American Gastroenterological Association.

Genetic architectures of proximal and distal colorectal cancer are partly distinct

OBJECTIVE

An understanding of the etiologic heterogeneity of colorectal cancer (CRC) is critical for improving precision prevention, including individualized screening recommendations and the discovery of novel drug targets and repurposable drug candidates for chemoprevention. Known differences in molecular characteristics and environmental risk factors among tumors arising in different locations of the colorectum suggest partly distinct mechanisms of carcinogenesis. The extent to which the contribution of inherited genetic risk factors for CRC differs by anatomical subsite of the primary tumor has not been examined.

DESIGN

To identify new anatomical subsite-specific risk loci, we performed genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analyses including data of 48 214 CRC cases and 64 159 controls of European ancestry. We characterised effect heterogeneity at CRC risk loci using multinomial modelling.

RESULTS

We identified 13 loci that reached genome-wide significance (p<5×10-8) and that were not reported by previous GWASs for overall CRC risk. Multiple lines of evidence support candidate genes at several of these loci. We detected substantial heterogeneity between anatomical subsites. Just over half (61) of 109 known and new risk variants showed no evidence for heterogeneity. In contrast, 22 variants showed association with distal CRC (including rectal cancer), but no evidence for association or an attenuated association with proximal CRC. For two loci, there was strong evidence for effects confined to proximal colon cancer.

CONCLUSION

Genetic architectures of proximal and distal CRC are partly distinct. Studies of risk factors and mechanisms of carcinogenesis, and precision prevention strategies should take into consideration the anatomical subsite of the tumour.

Abstract 818: Association of polygenic risk score and menopausal hormone therapy for colorectal cancer risk

Background and objective Genetic predisposition and menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) are established risk and preventive factors for colorectal cancer (CRC), respectively. We aimed to evaluate the joint associations of a polygenic risk score (PRS) and MHT on CRC risk for informing CRC prevention.

Methods We used data from 28,486 postmenopausal women (11,519 cases and 16,967 controls) of European descent from 38 studies. MHT use was assessed as the use of any MHT, estrogen-only (E-only) or combined estrogen-progestogen (E+P) therapy at reference time. A PRS based on 141 genetic variants previously identified by genome-wide association studies of CRC was modelled as categorical variable in quartiles and also as per-standard deviation difference between PRS and minimum of PRS [(PRS-min(PRS))/SD(PRS)] (PRS.minsd). Multiplicative interaction between PRS and MHT was evaluated using standard logistic regression. Additive interaction was measured using the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI).

Results The use of any MHT as well as E+P and E-only were associated with reduced CRC risk (Odds ratio [OR] 0.70, 0.71, 0.65, respectively). PRS was associated with increased CRC risk, whether as continuous variable (PRS.minsd) (OR 1.53) or in quartiles (OR 1.49, 1.92, 2.87, respectively). We identified statistically significant negative multiplicative interaction (OR: 0.92; 95%CI: 0.87, 0.98) as well as negative additive interaction (RERI: -0.13; 95%CI: -0.15, -0.10) between PRS.minsd and any MHT use. Results were limited to additive interactions with PRS.minsd for E-only use (RERI: -0.14; 95%CI: -0.18, -0.11) and E+P use (RERI: -0.12; 95%CI: -0.16, -0.08). The magnitude of negative additive interactions increased with higher quartiles of PRS for all MHT variables and was consistently significant for the highest quartile compared to the lowest quartile of PRS for any MHT use (RERI: -0.78; 95%CI: -1.03, -0.52), E-only use (RERI: -0.78; 95%CI: -1.18, -0.39), and also E+P use (RERI: -0.53; 95%CI: -0.96, -0.10). Negative multiplicative interaction was also observed for higher PRS quartiles of all MHT variables but significant only for the highest quartile with E-only use (OR: 0.73; 95%CI: 0.55, 0.97). These negative interactions on both multiplicative and additive scales indicate that MHT has a relatively more protective effect on CRC risk for those women with larger PRS scores. For example, compared to women in the lowest PRS quartile with no MHT use, the risk of CRC for women in higher quartiles of PRS was more strongly reduced with MHT use (ORPRS.Q3+noMHT: 1.93 vs ORPRS.Q3+MHT: 1.38, OR MHT/noMHT in PRS.Q3: 0.71; ORPRS.Q4+noMHT: 2.81 vs ORPRS.Q4+MHT: 1.77, OR MHT/noMHT in PRS.Q4: 0.63).

Conclusions The protective effect of MHT use on the risk of CRC is stronger in women with higher genetic risk. Risk prediction models incorporating PRS may need to account for potential effect modification by non-genetic risk factors.

Citation Format: Yu Tian, Yi Lin, Andre E. Kim, Stephanie A. Bien, Polly A. Newcomb, Graham Casey, Elizabeth A. Platz, Loic Le Marchand, Peter T. Campbell, Hermann Brenner, Michael Hoffmeister, Feng Guo, Xuechen Chen, Marc J. Gunter, Niki Dimou, Stephen B. Gruber, Andrew T. Chan, Amit D. Joshi, Sonja I. Berndt, Emily White, Victor Moreno, Ross L. Prentice, Ulrike Peters, William Gauderman, Li Hsu, Jenny Chang-Claude. Association of polygenic risk score and menopausal hormone therapy for colorectal cancer risk [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2021; 2021 Apr 10-15 and May 17-21. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2021;81(13_Suppl):Abstract nr 818.

Abstract 824: Germline genetic regulation of the adaptive immune response in colorectal cancer

Adaptive immune responses in the tumor microenvironment of colorectal cancer (CRC) play an important role in prognosis. However, the contributions of germline genetic variations to the strength and diversity of T cell responses in CRC are unclear. We conducted a genome-wide association study to examine the relationships between germline genetic variants and measures of the T cell repertoire in colorectal tumors. Germline DNA samples from 5,581 CRC cases recruited into the Molecular Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Study (MECC) were genotyped in batches using four different platforms. Genotype data were imputed to the Haplotype Reference Consortium panel separately by genotyping platform. Tumor DNA samples were extracted from paraffin blocks, and tumor infiltrating lymphocytes per high powered field (TILs/hpf) were quantified by a single gastrointestinal pathologist. TCR abundance and clonality within individual CRCs were measured using the immunoSEQ assay (Adaptive Biotechnologies). Appropriate quality control steps and data transformations were applied to fit downstream statistical modeling assumptions. After standard quality control on both imputed genotypes and transformed immune metrics, 2,876 (TILs/hpf) and 2,395 (TCR abundance and clonality) cases with approximately 9 million imputed genetic variants were included in the discovery phase. Logistic or linear regression models were used to evaluate the associations between allelic dosage of each variant and each immune-related outcome, adjusting for sex, age at diagnosis, genotyping platform, and principal components for global ancestry. Three independent datasets were available to replicate our findings using similar quality control measures and regression models: Colonomics (N=96; TILs/hpf, TCR abundance, clonality), the CRC Genetics Study (N=162; TCR abundance, clonality), and the Harvard Cohorts (N=505; TILs/hpf; in progress). The discovery phase identified 5 independent genetic variants associated with TILs/hpf, 15 associated with TCR abundance, and 19 associated with clonality at p&lt;5X10E-06. Replication analyses as well as expression quantitative trait analyses and in silico functional annotation are underway for the loci of interest. Our study suggests that germline genetic variation is associated with the quantity and quality of adaptive immune responses in CRC.

Citation Format: Stephanie L. Schmit, Ya-Yu Tsai, Joseph Bonner, Rebeca Sanz-Pamplona, Amit D. Joshi, Sidney S. Lindsey, Marilena Melas, Kevin J. McDonnell, Gregory E. Idos, Christopher P. Walker, W. Martin Kast, Diane Da Silva, Tomotaka Ugai, Hedy S. Rennert, Harlan S. Robins, Joel K. Greenson, Shuji Ogino, Victor Moreno, Gad Rennert, Stephen B. Gruber. Germline genetic regulation of the adaptive immune response in colorectal cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2021; 2021 Apr 10-15 and May 17-21. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2021;81(13_Suppl):Abstract nr 824.

Genetically Predicted Circulating C-Reactive Protein Concentration and Colorectal Cancer Survival: A Mendelian Randomization Consortium Study

BACKGROUND

A positive association between circulating C-reactive protein (CRP) and colorectal cancer survival was reported in observational studies, which are susceptible to unmeasured confounding and reverse causality. We used a Mendelian randomization approach to evaluate the association between genetically predicted CRP concentrations and colorectal cancer-specific survival.

METHODS

We used individual-level data for 16,918 eligible colorectal cancer cases of European ancestry from 15 studies within the International Survival Analysis of Colorectal Cancer Consortium. We calculated a genetic-risk score based on 52 CRP-associated genetic variants identified from genome-wide association studies. Because of the non-collapsibility of hazard ratios from Cox proportional hazards models, we used the additive hazards model to calculate hazard differences (HD) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between genetically predicted CRP concentrations and colorectal cancer-specific survival, overall and by stage at diagnosis and tumor location. Analyses were adjusted for age at diagnosis, sex, body mass index, genotyping platform, study, and principal components.

RESULTS

Of the 5,395 (32%) deaths accrued over up to 10 years of follow-up, 3,808 (23%) were due to colorectal cancer. Genetically predicted CRP concentration was not associated with colorectal cancer-specific survival (HD, -1.15; 95% CI, -2.76 to 0.47 per 100,000 person-years; P = 0.16). Similarly, no associations were observed in subgroup analyses by stage at diagnosis or tumor location.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite adequate power to detect moderate associations, our results did not support a causal effect of circulating CRP concentrations on colorectal cancer-specific survival.

IMPACT

Future research evaluating genetically determined levels of other circulating inflammatory biomarkers (i.e., IL6) with colorectal cancer survival outcomes is needed.

Association of social distancing and face mask use with risk of COVID-19

Given the continued burden of COVID-19 worldwide, there is a high unmet need for data on the effect of social distancing and face mask use to mitigate the risk of COVID-19. We examined the association of community-level social distancing measures and individual face mask use with risk of predicted COVID-19 in a large prospective U.S. cohort study of 198,077 participants. Individuals living in communities with the greatest social distancing had a 31% lower risk of predicted COVID-19 compared with those living in communities with poor social distancing. Self-reported 'always' use of face mask was associated with a 62% reduced risk of predicted COVID-19 even among individuals living in a community with poor social distancing. These findings provide support for the efficacy of mask-wearing even in settings of poor social distancing in reducing COVID-19 transmission. Despite mass vaccination campaigns in many parts of the world, continued efforts at social distancing and face mask use remain critically important in reducing the spread of COVID-19.

Attributes and predictors of long COVID

Reports of long-lasting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) symptoms, the so-called 'long COVID', are rising but little is known about prevalence, risk factors or whether it is possible to predict a protracted course early in the disease. We analyzed data from 4,182 incident cases of COVID-19 in which individuals self-reported their symptoms prospectively in the COVID Symptom Study app¹. A total of 558 (13.3%) participants reported symptoms lasting ≥28 days, 189 (4.5%) for ≥8 weeks and 95 (2.3%) for ≥12 weeks. Long COVID was characterized by symptoms of fatigue, headache, dyspnea and anosmia and was more likely with increasing age and body mass index and female sex. Experiencing more than five symptoms during the first week of illness was associated with long COVID (odds ratio = 3.53 (2.76-4.50)). A simple model to distinguish between short COVID and long COVID at 7 days (total sample size, n = 2,149) showed an area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve of 76%, with replication in an independent sample of 2,472 individuals who were positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. This model could be used to identify individuals at risk of long COVID for trials of prevention or treatment and to plan education and rehabilitation services.

Alterations in Fecal Microbiomes and Serum Metabolomes of Fatigued Patients With Quiescent Inflammatory Bowel Diseases

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Fatigue is frequent and disabling in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) but its mechanisms are poorly understood. We investigated alterations in fecal microbiomes and serum metabolomes and proteomes in patients with quiescent IBD, with vs without fatigue.

METHODS

We performed a prospective observational study of patients (44% women; mean age, 39.8 y) with clinically and endoscopically quiescent Crohn's disease (n = 106) or ulcerative colitis (n = 60) at a tertiary hospital, from March 2016 through December 2018. Fatigue was assessed using the functional assessment of chronic illness therapy-fatigue scoring system and defined as a score of 43 or less. We performed metabolomic analysis of serum samples using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry methods and proteomic analysis using multiplex proximity extension assay (PEA) technology. Stool samples were obtained from 50 patients and analyzed by shotgun metagenomic sequencing on Illumina HiSeq platform.

RESULTS

Of the 166 study participants, 91 (55%) were fatigued. Serum samples from patients with fatigue (n = 59) did not have significant increases in levels of inflammatory cytokines compared with serum samples from nonfatigued patients (n = 72). We found a statistically significant difference in a cluster of 18 serum metabolites between patients with fatigue (n = 84) vs without fatigue (n = 72) (P = .033); serum samples from patients with fatigue had significant reductions in levels of methionine (P = .020), tryptophan (P = .042), proline (P = .017), and sarcosine (P = .047). Fecal samples from patients with fatigue had a less diverse gut microbiome, with significant reductions in butyrate-producing bacteria, including Faecalibacterium prausnitzii (P = .0002, q =.007) and Roseburia hominis (P = .0079, q = 0.105). This fatigue-like microbiome was associated with fatigue scales and correlated with progressive depletion of metabolites from serum samples.

CONCLUSIONS

In an analysis of fecal and serum samples from 166 patients with IBD, we found alterations in serum metabolites and fecal microbes that were associated with fatigue.

Aspirin Use and Risk of Colorectal Cancer Among Older Adults

Importance

Although aspirin is recommended for the prevention of colorectal cancer (CRC) among adults aged 50 to 59 years, recent data from a randomized clinical trial suggest a lack of benefit and even possible harm among older adults.

Objective

To examine the association between aspirin use and the risk of incident CRC among older adults.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A pooled analysis was conducted of 2 large US cohort studies, the Nurses' Health Study (June 1, 1980-June 30, 2014) and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (January 1, 1986-January 31, 2014). A total of 94 540 participants aged 70 years or older were included and followed up to June 30, 2014, for women or January 31, 2014, for men. Participants with a diagnosis of any cancer, except nonmelanoma skin cancer, or inflammatory bowel disease were excluded. Statistical analyses were conducted from December 2019 to October 2020.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for incident CRC.

Results

Among the 94 540 participants (mean [SD] age, 76.4 [4.9] years for women, 77.7 [5.6] years for men; 67 223 women [71.1%]; 65 259 White women [97.1%], 24 915 White men [96.0%]) aged 70 years or older, 1431 incident cases of CRC were documented over 996 463 person-years of follow-up. After adjustment for other risk factors, regular use of aspirin was associated with a significantly lower risk of CRC at or after age 70 years compared with nonregular use (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.72-0.90). However, the inverse association was evident only among aspirin users who initiated aspirin use before age 70 years (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67-0.95). In contrast, initiating aspirin use at or after 70 years was not significantly associated with a lower risk of CRC (HR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.76-1.11).

Conclusions and Relevance

Initiating aspirin at an older age was not associated with a lower risk of CRC in this pooled analysis of 2 cohort studies. In contrast, those who used aspirin before age 70 years and continued into their 70s or later had a reduced risk of CRC.

Symptom clusters in COVID-19: A potential clinical prediction tool from the COVID Symptom Study app

As no one symptom can predict disease severity or the need for dedicated medical support in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), we asked whether documenting symptom time series over the first few days informs outcome. Unsupervised time series clustering over symptom presentation was performed on data collected from a training dataset of completed cases enlisted early from the COVID Symptom Study Smartphone application, yielding six distinct symptom presentations. Clustering was validated on an independent replication dataset between 1 and 28 May 2020. Using the first 5 days of symptom logging, the ROC-AUC (receiver operating characteristic - area under the curve) of need for respiratory support was 78.8%, substantially outperforming personal characteristics alone (ROC-AUC 69.5%). Such an approach could be used to monitor at-risk patients and predict medical resource requirements days before they are required.

Racial and ethnic differences in COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and uptake

BACKGROUND

Racial and ethnic minorities have been disproportionately impacted by COVID-19. In the initial phase of population-based vaccination in the United States (U.S.) and United Kingdom (U.K.), vaccine hesitancy and limited access may result in disparities in uptake.

METHODS

We performed a cohort study among U.S. and U.K. participants in the smartphone-based COVID Symptom Study (March 24, 2020-February 16, 2021). We used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy (unsure/not willing) and receipt.

RESULTS

In the U.S. ( n =87,388), compared to White non-Hispanic participants, the multivariable ORs of vaccine hesitancy were 3.15 (95% CI: 2.86 to 3.47) for Black participants, 1.42 (1.28 to 1.58) for Hispanic participants, 1.34 (1.18 to 1.52) for Asian participants, and 2.02 (1.70 to 2.39) for participants reporting more than one race/other. In the U.K. ( n =1,254,294), racial and ethnic minorities had similarly elevated hesitancy: compared to White participants, their corresponding ORs were 2.84 (95% CI: 2.69 to 2.99) for Black participants, 1.66 (1.57 to 1.76) for South Asian participants, 1.84 (1.70 to 1.98) for Middle East/East Asian participants, and 1.48 (1.39 to 1.57) for participants reporting more than one race/other. Among U.S. participants, the OR of vaccine receipt was 0.71 (0.64 to 0.79) for Black participants, a disparity that persisted among individuals who specifically endorsed a willingness to obtain a vaccine. In contrast, disparities in uptake were not observed in the U.K.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy was greater among racial and ethnic minorities, and Black participants living in the U.S. were less likely to receive a vaccine than White participants. Lower uptake among Black participants in the U.S. during the initial vaccine rollout is attributable to both hesitancy and disparities in access.

Cancer and Risk of COVID-19 Through a General Community Survey

Individuals with cancer may be at high risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and adverse outcomes. However, evidence from large population-based studies examining whether cancer and cancer-related therapy exacerbates the risk of COVID-19 infection is still limited. Data were collected from the COVID Symptom Study smartphone application since March 29 through May 8, 2020. Among 23,266 participants with cancer and 1,784,293 without cancer, we documented 10,404 reports of a positive COVID-19 test. Compared with participants without cancer, those living with cancer had a 60% increased risk of a positive COVID-19 test. Among patients with cancer, current treatment with chemotherapy or immunotherapy was associated with a 2.2-fold increased risk of a positive test. The association between cancer and COVID-19 infection was stronger among participants >65 years and males. Future studies are needed to identify subgroups by tumor types and treatment regimens who are particularly at risk for COVID-19 infection and adverse outcomes.