Collaborative Cohort of Cohorts for COVID-19 Research (C4R) Study: Study Design

The Collaborative Cohort of Cohorts for COVID-19 Research (C4R) is a national prospective study of adults at risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) comprising 14 established United States (US) prospective cohort studies. For decades, C4R cohorts have collected extensive data on clinical and subclinical diseases and their risk factors, including behavior, cognition, biomarkers, and social determinants of health. C4R will link this pre-COVID phenotyping to information on SARS-CoV-2 infection and acute and post-acute COVID-related illness. C4R is largely population-based, has an age range of 18-108 years, and broadly reflects the racial, ethnic, socioeconomic, and geographic diversity of the US. C4R is ascertaining severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and COVID-19 illness using standardized questionnaires, ascertainment of COVID-related hospitalizations and deaths, and a SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey via dried blood spots. Master protocols leverage existing robust retention rates for telephone and in-person examinations, and high-quality events surveillance. Extensive pre-pandemic data minimize referral, survival, and recall bias. Data are being harmonized with research-quality phenotyping unmatched by clinical and survey-based studies; these will be pooled and shared widely to expedite collaboration and scientific findings. This unique resource will allow evaluation of risk and resilience factors for COVID-19 severity and outcomes, including post-acute sequelae, and assessment of the social and behavioral impact of the pandemic on long-term trajectories of health and aging.

Association of lung diffusion capacity with cardiac remodeling and risk of heart failure: The Framingham heart study

Background

Lung function abnormalities are ubiquitous in heart failure (HF). It is unclear, however, if abnormal lung diffusion capacity is associated with cardiac remodeling and antedates HF. We hypothesized that lower lung diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) is associated with worse left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic function cross-sectionally, and with higher risk of HF prospectively.

Methods

We evaluated 2423 Framingham Study participants (mean age 66 years, 55% women) free of HF who underwent routine echocardiography and pulmonary function tests. We used multivariable regression models to relate DLCO, forced vital capacity (FVC), and forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) to left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), left atrial (LA) emptying fraction (LAEF), E/e’, E/A, LV mass, and LA diameter (LAD). Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression was used to relate DLCO, FEV1, and FVC to incident HF.

Results

In multivariable-adjusted cross-sectional analyses, DLCO, FEV1, and FVC (dependent variables) were associated positively with LVEF (β_DLCO = 0.208, β_FEV1 = 0.021, and β_FVC = 0.025 per 5% increment in LVEF; p<0.005 for all), and LAEF (β_DLCO = 0.707, β_FEV1 = 0.058 and β_FVC = 0.058 per 5% increment in LAEF; p<0.002 for all). DLCO and FVC were inversely related to E/A (β_DLCO = -0.289, β_FVC = -0.047 per SD increment in E/A; p<0.001 for all). Additionally, DLCO, FEV1 and FVC were inversely related to HF risk (108 events, median follow-up 9.7 years; multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios per SD increment 0.90, 95% CI 0.86–0.95; 0.42, 95% CI 0.28–0.65, and 0.51, 95% CI 0.36–0.73, respectively). These results remained robust in analyses restricted to non-smokers.

Conclusions

Our large community-based observations are consistent with the concept that lower lung diffusion capacity and expiratory flow rates are associated with cardiac remodeling and may antedate HF. Additional studies are needed to confirm our findings and to evaluate the prognostic utility of pulmonary function testing for predicting HF.

Association of the Duration of Ideal Cardiovascular Health Through Adulthood With Cardiometabolic Outcomes and Mortality in the Framingham Offspring Study

Importance

The American Heart Association ideal cardiovascular health (CVH) score is associated with the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality. However, it is unclear whether the number of years spent in ideal CVH is associated with morbidity or with mortality.

Objective

To evaluate whether living longer with a higher CVH score in midlife is associated with lower risk of hypertension, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, CVD and its subtypes (coronary heart disease, stroke, congestive heart failure, and peripheral artery disease), or all-cause mortality in later life.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This prospective cohort study used data from 1445 participants from 1991 to 2015 who participated in the community-based Framingham Heart Study Offspring investigation conducted in Massachusetts. The CVH scores of participants were assessed at examination cycles 5, 6, and 7 (1991-1995; 1995-1998; and 1998-2001, respectively). Individuals were excluded from analyses of the association between duration of CVH score and outcomes if they had the outcome of interest at the seventh examination. The median follow-up was approximately 16 years. Data were analyzed from April 2018 to October 2019. The CVH score categories were poor for scores 0 to 7, intermediate for scores 8 to 11, and ideal for scores 12 to 14. A composite score was derived based on smoking status, diet, physical activity, resting blood pressure levels, body mass index, fasting blood glucose levels, and total serum cholesterol levels.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Number of events and number at risk for each main outcome, including incident hypertension, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, CVD, and all-cause mortality, after the seventh examination.

Results

Of 1445 eligible participants, the mean (SD) age was 60 (9) years, and 751 (52%) were women. Number of events/number at risk for each main outcome after the seventh examination were 348/795 for incident hypertension, 104/1304 for diabetes, 198/918 for chronic kidney disease, 210/1285 for CVD, and 300/1445 for all-cause mortality. At the seventh examination, participants mostly had poor (568 [39%]) or intermediate (782 [54%]) CVH scores. For each antecedent (before examination cycle 7) 5-year duration that participants had intermediate or ideal CVH, they were less likely to develop adverse outcomes (hazards ratios of 0.67 [95% CI, 0.56-0.80] for incident hypertension, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.57-0.93] for diabetes, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.63-0.89] for chronic kidney disease, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.63-0.85] for CVD, and 0.86 [95% CI, 0.76-0.97] for all-cause mortality) relative to living the same amount of time in poor CVH (referent group). No effect modification was observed by age or by sex.

Conclusions and Relevance

These results suggest that more time spent in better CVH in midlife may have salutary cardiometabolic benefits and may be associated with lower mortality later in life.

Circulating growth factors and cardiac remodeling in the community: The Framingham Heart Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Cardiac and vascular growth factors (GF) may influence myocardial remodeling through cardiac growth and angiogenic effects. We hypothesized that concentrations of circulating GF are associated with cardiac remodeling traits.

METHODS

We related blood concentrations of vascular endothelial GF (VEGF), VEGFR-1 (sFlt1), angiopoietin 2 (Ang-2), soluble angiopoietin type-2 receptor (sTie2), hepatocyte GF (HGF), insulin-like GF (IGF)-1, IGF binding protein (IGFBP)-3, and growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) to echocardiographic traits in 3151 Framingham Study participants (mean age 40 years, 55% women). We evaluated the following measures: left ventricular (LV) mass index (LVMi), LV ejection fraction (LVEF), global longitudinal strain (GLS), mitral E/e', and aortic root diameter (AoR). All biomarker values were sex-standardized.

RESULTS

In multivariable-adjusted analyses, higher GDF-15 concentrations were associated with higher log-LVMi (β = 0.009 per SD, P = 0.01). Similarly, sTie2 concentrations were positively associated with log-E/e' (β = 0.011 per SD, P = 0.04). IGF-1 and Ang-2 concentrations were positively and negatively associated with GLS, respectively (β_IGF-1 = 0.16 per SD and β_Ang-2 = -0.15 per SD, both P < 0.05), whereas higher sFlt1 and Ang-2 levels were associated with smaller log-AoR (β_sFlt1 = -0.004 per SD and β _Ang-2 = -0.005 per SD, respectively; P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

In our large community-based sample, we observed patterns of associations between several circulating vascular GF and cardiac remodeling indices that are consistent with the known biological effects of these pro- and anti-angiogenic factors on the myocardium and conduit arteries. Additional studies are warranted to replicate our findings and assess their prognostic significance.

Joint influences of obesity, diabetes, and hypertension on indices of ventricular remodeling: Findings from the community-based Framingham Heart Study

Introduction

Obesity, hypertension, and diabetes are independently associated with cardiac remodeling and frequently co-cluster. The conjoint and separate influences of these conditions on cardiac remodeling have not been investigated.

Materials and methods

We evaluated 5,741 Framingham Study participants (mean age 50 years, 55% women) who underwent echocardiographic measurements of left ventricular (LV) mass (LVM), LV ejection fraction (LVEF), global longitudinal strain (GLS), mitral E/e’, left atrial end-systolic (peak) dimension (LASD) and emptying fraction (LAEF). We used multivariable generalized linear models to estimate the adjusted-least square means of these measures according to cross-classified categories of body mass index (BMI; normal, overweight and obese), hypertension (yes/no), and diabetes (yes/no).

Results

We observed statistically significant interactions of BMI category, hypertension, and diabetes with LVM, LVEF, GLS, and LAEF (p for all 3-way interactions <0.01). Overweight and obesity (compared to normal BMI), hypertension, and diabetes status were individually and conjointly associated with higher LVM and worse GLS (p<0.01 for all). We observed an increase of 34% for LVM and of 9% for GLS between individuals with a normal BMI and without hypertension or diabetes compared to obese individuals with hypertension and diabetes. Presence of hypertension was associated with higher LVEF, whereas people with diabetes had lower LVEF.

Conclusions

Obesity, hypertension, and diabetes interact synergistically to influence cardiac remodeling. These findings may explain the markedly heightened risk of heart failure and cardiovascular disease when these factors co-cluster.

Association of Exhaled Carbon Monoxide With Ideal Cardiovascular Health, Circulating Biomarkers, and Incidence of Heart Failure in the Framingham Offspring Study

Background Exhaled carbon monoxide (eCO) is directly associated with traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors and incident cardiovascular disease. However, its relation with the cardiovascular health score and incidence of heart failure (HF) has not been investigated. Methods and Results We measured eCO in 3521 Framingham Heart Study Offspring participants attending examination cycle 6 (mean age 59 years, 53% women). We related the cardiovascular health score (composite of blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, total cholesterol, body mass index, smoking, diet, and physical activity) to eCO adjusting for age, sex, and smoking. Higher cardiovascular health scores were associated with lower eCO (β=-0.02, P<0.0001), even among nonsmokers. Additionally, C-reactive protein, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, fibrinogen, growth differentiation factor-15, homocysteine, and asymmetrical dimethylarginine were positively associated with eCO (P≤0.003 for all). The age- and sex-adjusted and multivariable-adjusted heritabilities of eCO were 49.5% and 31.4%, respectively. Over a median follow-up of 18 years, 309 participants (45% women) developed HF. After multivariable adjustment, higher eCO was associated with higher risk of HF (hazards ratio per SD increment: 1.39; 95% CI, 1.19-1.62 [P<0.001]) and with higher risk of HF with reduced ejection fraction (N=144 events; hazard ratio per SD increment in eCO: 1.43; 95% CI, 1.15-1.77 [P=0.001]). Conclusions In our community-based sample, higher levels of eCO were associated with lower cardiovascular health scores, an adverse cardiovascular biomarker profile, and a higher risk of HF, specifically HF with reduced ejection fraction. Our findings suggest that carbon monoxide may identify a novel pathway to HF development.

Performance of the Pooled Cohort Equations to Estimate Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk by Body Mass Index

IMPORTANCE

Obesity is a global health challenge and a risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASVCD). Performance of the pooled cohort equations (PCE) for ASCVD risk by body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To assess performance of the PCE across clinical BMI categories.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study used pooled individual-level data from 8 community-based, prospective, longitudinal cohort studies with 10-year ASCVD event follow-up from 1996 to 2016. We included all adults ages 40 to 79 years without baseline ASCVD or statin use, resulting in a sample size of 37 311 participants. Data were analyzed from August 2017 to July 2020.

EXPOSURES

Participant BMI category: underweight (<18.5), normal weight (18.5 to <25), overweight (25 to <30), mild obesity (30 to <35), and moderate to severe obesity (≥35).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Discrimination (Harrell C statistic) and calibration (Nam-D'Agostino χ2 goodness-of-fit test) of the PCE across BMI categories. Improvement in discrimination and net reclassification with addition of BMI, waist circumference, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) to the PCE.

RESULTS

Among 37 311 participants (mean [SD] age, 58.6 [11.8] years; 21 897 [58.7%] women), 380 604 person-years of follow-up were conducted. Mean (SD) baseline BMI was 29.0 (6.2), and 360 individuals (1.0%) were in the underweight category, 9937 individuals (26.6%) were in the normal weight category, 13 601 individuals (36.4%) were in the overweight category, 7783 individuals (20.9%) were in the mild obesity category, and 5630 individuals (15.1%) were in the moderate to severe obesity category. Median (interquartile range [IQR]) 10-year estimated ASCVD risk was 7.1% (2.5%-15.4%), and 3709 individuals (9.9%) developed ASCVD over a median (IQR) 10.8 [8.5-12.6] years. The PCE overestimated ASCVD risk in the overall cohort (estimated/observed [E/O] risk ratio, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.18-1.26) and across all BMI categories except the underweight category. Calibration was better near the clinical decision threshold in all BMI groups but worse among individuals with moderate or severe obesity (E/O risk ratio, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.25-1.47) and among those with the highest estimated ASCVD risk ≥20%. The PCE C statistic overall was 0.760 (95% CI, 0.753-0.767), with lower discrimination in the moderate or severe obesity group (C statistic, 0.742; 95% CI, 0.721-0.763) compared with the normal-range BMI group (C statistic, 0.785; 95% CI, 0.772-0.798). Waist circumference (hazard ratio, 1.07 per 1-SD increase; 95% CI, 1.03-1.11) and hsCRP (hazard ratio, 1.07 per 1-SD increase; 95% CI, 1.05-1.09), but not BMI, were associated with increased ASCVD risk when added to the PCE. However, these factors did not improve model performance (C statistic, 0.760; 95% CI, 0.753-0.767) with or without added metrics.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These findings suggest that the PCE had acceptable model discrimination and were well calibrated at clinical decision thresholds but overestimated risk of ASCVD for individuals in overweight and obese categories, particularly individuals with high estimated risk. Incorporation of the usual clinical measures of obesity did not improve risk estimation of the PCE. Future research is needed to determine whether incorporation of alternative high-risk obesity markers (eg, weight trajectory or measures of visceral or ectopic fat) into the PCE may improve risk prediction.

Dietary Patterns, Ceramide Ratios, and Risk of All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality: The Framingham Offspring Study

BACKGROUND

Prior evidence suggests that diet modifies the association of blood ceramides with the risk of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD). It remains unknown if diet quality modifies the association of very long-chain-to-long-chain ceramide ratios with mortality in the community.

OBJECTIVES

Our objectives were to determine how healthy dietary patterns associate with blood ceramide concentrations and to examine if healthy dietary patterns modify associations of ceramide ratios (C22:0/C16:0 and C24:0/C16:0) with all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

METHODS

We examined 2157 participants of the Framingham Offspring Study (mean age = 66 y, 55% women). Blood ceramides were quantified using a validated assay. We evaluated prospective associations of the Dietary Guidelines Adherence Index (DGAI) and Mediterranean-style Diet Score (MDS) with incidence of all-cause and cause-specific mortality using Cox proportional hazards models. Cross-sectional associations of the DGAI and MDS with ceramides were evaluated using multivariable linear regression models.

RESULTS

The C22:0/C16:0 and C24:0/C16:0 ceramide ratios were inversely associated with all-cause, CVD, and cancer mortality; multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CIs) were 0.73 (0.67, 0.80) and 0.70 (0.63, 0.77) for all-cause mortality, 0.74 (0.60, 0.90) and 0.69 (0.55, 0.86) for CVD mortality, and 0.75 (0.65, 0.87) and 0.75 (0.64, 0.88) for cancer mortality, respectively. Inverse associations of the C22:0/C16:0 and C24:0/C16:0 ceramide ratios with cancer mortality were attenuated among individuals with a higher diet quality (DGAI or MDS above the median, all P-interaction ≤0.1). The DGAI and MDS had distinct associations with ceramide ratios (DGAI: lower C22:0/C16:0 across quartiles; MDS: higher C24:0/C16:0 across quartiles; all P-trend ≤0.01).

CONCLUSION

In our community-based sample, ceramide ratios (C22:0/C16:0 and C24:0/C16:0) were associated with a lower risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Further, we observed that a higher overall diet quality attenuates the association between blood ceramide ratios and cancer mortality and that dietary patterns have distinct relations with ceramide ratios.

Premature Parental Cardiovascular Disease and Subclinical Disease Burden in the Offspring

Background Offspring of parents with premature cardiovascular disease (CVD) have an increased risk of developing subclinical and clinical CVD. It is unclear whether this association differs by vascular beds in the offspring or by the age cut points used to define premature parental CVD. Methods and Results Using 3 generations of Framingham Heart Study participants, we assessed prevalent coronary artery calcification, the progression of coronary artery calcification over 6.1 years (median), carotid intima media thickness and the ankle-brachial index in 1046 offspring of parents with premature CVD before age 70 years, in 1618 offspring with both parents free of CVD and in 923 offspring with parents with CVD after age 70 years. We used different age cut points (55, 60, 65, and 70 years) to define premature parental CVD. In multivariable-adjusted models, offspring of parents with premature CVD (onset before age 65 years) displayed greater odds for prevalent coronary artery calcification (odds ratio [OR], 1.81; 95% CI, 1.35-2.43), higher carotid intima media thickness (OR, 1.50; 95% CI, 0.92-2.44) and lower ankle-brachial index (OR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.00-3.58). These associations were generally consistent across different age cut points used to define premature parental CVD. The association with the progression of coronary artery calcification was less consistent. Conclusions Parental premature CVD is associated with increased subclinical CVD burden in the offspring, with consistent relations across different vascular beds and for different age cut points used to define premature parental CVD. Future studies should evaluate whether screening for subclinical CVD traits is warranted in offspring with premature parental CVD.

Familial Clustering of Aortic Size, Aneurysms, and Dissections in the Community

Background:

Ruptured aortic aneurysm and aortic dissections are potentially preventable disorders associated with high mortality. Screening of individuals at risk may translate into elective surgical interventions and lowered mortality. It is uncertain if the risk of aortic dilation of varying degrees aggregates within families.

Methods:

We investigated the risk of having thoracic and abdominal aortic sizes in the highest quartile (measured by computed tomography scans and indexed for body size) if at least 1 parent did so in the Framingham Heart Study cohorts, and estimated the incidence rates and hazard ratios of developing aortic aneurysm or dissection among first-degree relatives of those with aortic aneurysm or dissection, in comparison with age- and sex-matched controls (1:10 for aortic aneurysm and 1:100 for aortic dissection) using the Danish nationwide administrative registries.

Results:

In the Framingham Heart Study, offspring (n=235) whose parent(s) had a sex- and age-standardized aortic size in the upper quartile had a multivariable-adjusted ≈3-fold increased odds ratio of belonging to the upper quartile themselves. In Denmark, a total of 68 939 individuals (mean age, 42 years) had a first-degree relative with aortic aneurysm and 7209 persons (mean age, 39 years) had a first-degree relative with aortic dissection. During an average follow-up of 7 years, first-degree relatives of patients with aortic aneurysm and dissection had a hazard ratio of 6.70 (95% CI, 5.96–7.52) for developing aortic aneurysm and a hazard ratio of 9.24 (95% CI, 5.53–15.44) for dissection in comparison with matched controls. These estimates remained unchanged on adjusting for several comorbidities, including prevalent hypertension, bicuspid aortic valve, and the Marfan syndrome. For both aortic aneurysm and dissections, the absolute event rates approached 1 per 1000 person-years for first-degree relatives versus 11 to 13 (aortic aneurysm) and 2 to 3 (aortic dissections) per 100 000 person-years among controls.

Conclusions:

Increased aortic size, a precursor of aortic aneurysm and a risk factor for dissection, clusters in families. The incidence rates of aortic aneurysm and dissections approach the incidence rates of other common cardiovascular conditions in first-degree relatives, supporting the use of systematic screening for these conditions.

Cardiovascular health, genetic risk, and risk of dementia in the Framingham Heart Study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the joint role of ideal cardiovascular health (CVH) and genetic risk on risk of dementia.

METHODS

We categorized CVH on the basis of the American Heart Association Ideal CVH Index and genetic risk through a genetic risk score (GRS) of common genetic variants and the APOE ε4 genotype in 1,211 Framingham Heart Study (FHS) offspring cohort participants. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models to examine the association between CVH, genetic risk, and incident all-cause dementia with up to 10 years of follow-up (mean 8.4 years, 96 incident dementia cases), adjusting for age, sex, and education.

RESULTS

We observed that a high GRS (>80th percentile) was associated with a 2.6-fold risk of dementia (95% confidence interval [CI] of hazard ratio [HR] 1.23-5.29; p = 0.012) compared with having a low GRS (<20th percentile); carrying at least 1 APOE ε4 allele was associated with a 2.3-fold risk of dementia compared with not carrying an APOE ε4 allele (95% CI of HR 1.49-3.53; p = 0.0002), and having a favorable CVH showed a 0.45-fold lower risk of dementia (95% CI of HR 0.20-1.01; p = 0.0527) compared to having an unfavorable CVH when all 3 components were included in the model. We did not observe an interaction between CVH and GRS (p = 0.99) or APOE ε4 (p = 0.16).

CONCLUSIONS

We observed that both genetic risk and CVH contribute additively to dementia risk.

Association of Circulating Tissue Inhibitor of Metalloproteinases-1 and Procollagen Type III Aminoterminal Peptide Levels With Incident Heart Failure and Chronic Kidney Disease

Background Tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases-1 ( TIMP -1) and procollagen type III aminoterminal peptide are established circulating markers of extracellular matrix remodeling and associated with cardiovascular disease. The association of both biomarkers with incident congestive heart failure and chronic kidney disease ( CKD ) in the community is not well studied. Methods and Results We measured plasma total TIMP -1 and procollagen type III aminoterminal peptide levels in 922 Framingham participants (mean age, 57 years; 57% women) and related both biomarkers to the risk of incident CKD and congestive heart failure in multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models. Plasma total TIMP -1 levels were positively associated with risk of incident CKD (164 events; hazard ratio per 1 SD in log-biomarker, 1.90; 95% CI , 1.53-2.37) in multivariable models, including adjustments for left ventricular mass, C-reactive protein, and B-type natriuretic peptide levels. The association of total TIMP -1 with risk of congestive heart failure was statistically significant in an age- and sex-adjusted model, but was attenuated upon adjustment for conventional risk factors. Blood procollagen type III aminoterminal peptide levels were not related to the risk of CKD or congestive heart failure. Conclusions Higher baseline levels of total TIMP -1 conferred an increased risk for incident CKD , independent of conventional risk factors and circulating biomarkers of chronic systemic inflammation and neurohormonal activation. Our prospective observations in a large community-based sample support the role of matrix remodeling in the pathogenesis of CKD .

Association of Variability in Body Mass Index and Metabolic Health With Cardiometabolic Disease Risk

Background Metabolic syndrome is associated with high risk of cardiovascular disease, although risk may differ according to the specific conditions present and variability in those conditions. Methods and Results We defined obesity (body mass index [BMI] ≥30 kg/m²) and metabolic health (<2 nonobesity National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III conditions) among 3632 Framingham Heart Study offspring cohort participants (mean age, 50.8 years; 53.8% women) who were followed up from 1987 to 2014. We defined participants whose variance independent of the mean for a metabolic syndrome-associated measure was in the top quintile as being "variable" for that measure. Variable metabolic health was defined as ≥2 variable nonobesity metabolic syndrome components. We investigated the interaction between obesity and metabolic health in their associations with cardiometabolic disease and cardiovascular disease using Cox proportional hazards regression. In addition, we estimated the associations of BMI variability and variable metabolic health with study outcomes within categories of obesity and metabolic health status, respectively. We observed 567 incident obesity (41 439 person-years), 771 incident metabolically unhealthy state (25 765 person-years), 272 incident diabetes mellitus (56 233 person-years), 503 incident hypertension (12 957 person-years), 589 cardiovascular disease (60 300 person-years), and 195 chronic kidney disease (47 370 person-years) events on follow-up. Obesity and being metabolically unhealthy were independently and positively associated with all outcomes. BMI variability, compared with stable BMI, was associated with 163%, 67%, 58%, and 74% higher risks of having obesity, becoming metabolically unhealthy, having diabetes mellitus, and having hypertension, respectively, among nonobese participants. Variable metabolic health, compared with stable metabolic health, was associated with a 28% higher risk of cardiovascular disease, among metabolically healthy participants. Conclusions We did not observe evidence for a positive interaction between obesity and metabolic health status with regard to study outcomes. BMI and metabolic health variability are associated with adverse health outcomes.

Associations of accelerometer-measured physical activity and sedentary time with chronic kidney disease: The Framingham Heart Study

BACKGROUND

Few studies examined the individual and conjoint associations of accelerometer-measured physical activity (PA) and sedentary times with the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) among older adults.

METHODS

We evaluated 1,268 Framingham Offspring Study participants (mean age 69.2 years, 53.8% women) between 2011 and 2014. CKD was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.732 and/or urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) ≥25/35 μg/mg (men/women). We used multivariable logistic regression models to relate time spent being sedentary and active with the odds of CKD. We then performed compositional data analysis to estimate the change in the eGFR and UACR when a fixed proportion of time in one activity behavior (among the following: moderate to vigorous physical activity [MVPA], light intensity physical activity [LIPA], and sedentary) is reallocated to another activity behavior.

RESULTS

Overall, 258 participants had prevalent CKD (20.4%; 120 women). Higher total PA ([MVPA+LIPA], adjusted-odds ratio [OR] per 30 minutes/day increase, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.78-0.96) and higher LIPA (OR per 30 minutes/day increase, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.76-0.99) were associated with lower odds of CKD. Additionally, higher sedentary time (OR per 30 minutes/day increase, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.04-1.29) was associated with higher odds of CKD. Reallocating 5% of the time from LIPA to sedentary was associated with the largest predicted difference in eGFR (-1.06 ml/min/1.73m2). Reallocating 1% of time spent in MVPA to sedentary status predicted the largest difference in UACR (14.37 μg/mg).

CONCLUSION

The findings suggest that increasing LIPA and maintaining MVPA at the expense of sedentary time may be associated with a lower risk of CKD in community-based older adults.

Association of Cardiorespiratory Fitness and Hemodynamic Responses to Submaximal Exercise Testing With the Incidence of Chronic Kidney Disease: The Framingham Heart Study

OBJECTIVE

To relate cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and hemodynamic responses to exercise to the incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD).

METHODS

We evaluated 2715 Framingham Offspring Study participants followed up (mean, 24.8 years) after their second examination (1979-1983) until the end of their ninth examination (2011-2014). Participants (mean age, 43 years; 1397 women [51.5%]) without prevalent CKD or cardiovascular disease at baseline were included. We examined the associations of CRF and hemodynamic response to exercise with incident CKD using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression with discrete intervals.

RESULTS

Compared with low CRF (first tertile), participants with moderate (second tertile) or high (third tertile) CRF had a lower risk of CKD (hazard ratios [95% CIs]: 0.74 [0.61-0.91] and 0.73 [0.59-0.91], respectively). Participants with chronotropic incompetence (hazard ratio, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.06 to 1.79]), higher exercise systolic blood pressure (hazard ratio per SD, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.07 to 1.34]), and impaired heart rate recovery (hazard ratio, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.08 to 2.10]) had a higher risk of CKD compared with those with chronotropic competence, lower exercise systolic blood pressure, and normal heart rate recovery, respectively. These associations remained robust when the exercise variables were mutually adjusted for. The third tertile of a standardized exercise test score comprising the statistically significant variables was associated with a higher risk of CKD compared with the first tertile (hazard ratio, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.45 to 2.36).

CONCLUSION

Higher CRF and favorable hemodynamic responses to submaximal exercise in young adulthood may be markers of lower risk of CKD in later life.

Association of Blood Pressure Responses to Submaximal Exercise in Midlife With the Incidence of Cardiovascular Outcomes and All-Cause Mortality: The Framingham Heart Study

Background

Few studies examined the associations of midlife blood pressure (BP) responses to submaximal exercise with the risk of cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in later life.

Methods and Results

We evaluated 1993 Framingham Offspring Study participants (mean age, 58 years; 53.2% women) attending examination cycle 7. We related BP responses to submaximal exercise with prevalent subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) using multivariable linear regression models. We also related BP responses to submaximal exercise to the incidence of hypertension, CVD, and all‐cause mortality using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Each SD increment of exercise BP was associated with higher log‐transformed left ventricular mass (systolic blood pressure [SBP], β=0.02, P=<0.001; diastolic blood pressure [DBP], β=0.01, P=0.004) and carotid intima‐media thickness (SBP, β=0.08, P=<0.001). Rapid BP recovery (per 1 SD increment) was associated with lower log left ventricular mass (SBP_recovery; β=−0.03, P=<0.001) and carotid intima‐media thickness (SBP_recovery, β=−0.07, P=0.003; DBP_recovery, β=−0.09, P=0.003). Additionally, Each SD increment of exercise BP was associated with a higher risk of incident hypertension (SBP, hazard ratio [HR], 1.40; 95% CI, 1.20–1.62; DBP, HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.11–1.40) and CVD (DBP, HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.02–1.30). Finally, the multivariable‐adjusted HR for each 1‐SD increment of BP recovery was 0.46 (SBP_recovery, 95% CI, 0.38–0.54) and 0.55 (DBP_recovery, 95% CI, 0.45–0.67) for hypertension; 0.80 (SBP_recovery, 95% CI, 0.69–0.93) for CVD; and 0.76 (SBP_recovery, 95% CI, 0.65–0.88) for all‐cause mortality.

Conclusions

Higher submaximal exercise BP and impaired BP recovery after submaximal exercise in midlife may be markers of subclinical and clinical CVD and mortality in later life.

Proteomic and Metabolomic Correlates of Healthy Dietary Patterns: The Framingham Heart Study

Data on proteomic and metabolomic signatures of healthy dietary patterns are limited. We evaluated the cross-sectional association of serum proteomic and metabolomic markers with three dietary patterns: the Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI), the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet; and a Mediterranean-style (MDS) diet. We examined participants from the Framingham Offspring Study (mean age; 55 years; 52% women) who had complete proteomic (n = 1713) and metabolomic (n = 2284) data; using food frequency questionnaires to derive dietary pattern indices. Proteins and metabolites were quantified using the SomaScan platform and liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry; respectively. We used multivariable-adjusted linear regression models to relate each dietary pattern index (independent variables) to each proteomic and metabolomic marker (dependent variables). Of the 1373 proteins; 103 were associated with at least one dietary pattern (48 with AHEI; 83 with DASH; and 8 with MDS; all false discovery rate [FDR] ≤ 0.05). We identified unique associations between dietary patterns and proteins (17 with AHEI; 52 with DASH; and 3 with MDS; all FDR ≤ 0.05). Significant proteins enriched biological pathways involved in cellular metabolism/proliferation and immune response/inflammation. Of the 216 metabolites; 65 were associated with at least one dietary pattern (38 with AHEI; 43 with DASH; and 50 with MDS; all FDR ≤ 0.05). All three dietary patterns were associated with a common signature of 24 metabolites (63% lipids). Proteins and metabolites associated with dietary patterns may help characterize intermediate phenotypes that provide insights into the molecular mechanisms mediating diet-related disease. Our findings warrant replication in independent populations.

Association of subclinical atherosclerosis with echocardiographic indices of cardiac remodeling: The Framingham Study

Background

It is well established that coronary artery disease progresses along with myocardial disease. However, data on the association between coronary artery calcium (CAC) and echocardiographic variables are lacking.

Methods and results

Among 2,650 Framingham Study participants (mean age 51 yrs, 48% women; 40% with CAC>0), we related CT-based CAC score to left ventricular (LV) mass index (LVMi), LV ejection fraction (LVEF), E/e’, global longitudinal strain (GLS), left atrial emptying fraction (LAEF), and aortic root diameter (AoR), using multivariable-adjusted generalized linear models. CAC score (independent variable) was used as log-transformed continuous [ln(CAC+1)] and as a categorical (0, 1–100, and ≥101) variable. Adjusting for standard risk factors, higher CAC score was associated with higher LVMi and AoR (β_LVMI per 1-SD increase 0.012, β_AoR 0.008; P<0.05, for both). Participants with 1≤CAC≤100 and those with CAC≥101 had higher AoR (β_AoR 0.013 and 0.020, respectively, P = 0.01) than those with CAC = 0. CAC score was not significantly associated with LVEF, E/e’, GLS or LAEF. Age modified the association of CAC score with AoR; higher CAC scores were associated with larger AoR more strongly in older (>58 years; β_AoR0.0042;P<0.007) than in younger (≤58 years) participants (β_AoR0.0027;P<0.03).

Conclusions

We observed that subclinical atherosclerosis was associated with ventricular and aortic remodeling. The prognostic significance of these associations warrants evaluation in additional mechanistic studies.

Clinical and Hemodynamic Associations and Prognostic Implications of Ventilatory Efficiency in Patients With Preserved Left Ventricular Systolic Function

BACKGROUND

Ventilatory efficiency (minute ventilation required to eliminate carbon dioxide, VE/VCO2) during exercise potently predicts outcomes in advanced heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, but its prognostic significance for at-risk individuals with preserved left ventricular systolic function is unclear. We aimed to characterize mechanistic determinants and prognostic implications of VE/VCO2 in a single-center dyspneic referral cohort (MGH-ExS [Massachusetts General Hospital Exercise Study]) and in a large sample of community-dwelling participants in the FHS (Framingham Heart Study).

METHODS

Maximum incremental cardiopulmonary exercise tests were performed. VE/VCO2 was assessed as the slope pre- and post-ventilatory anaerobic threshold (VE/VCO2_pre-VATslope, VE/VCO2_{post-VATslope}), the slope throughout exercise (VE/VCO2_{overall-slope}), and as the lowest 30-second value (VE/VCO2_nadir).

RESULTS

In the MGH-ExS (N=493, age 56±15 years, 61% women, left ventricular ejection fraction 64±8%), higher VE/VCO2_nadir was associated with lower peak exercise cardiac output and steeper increases in exercise pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (both P<0.0001). VE/VCO2_nadir (hazard ratio, 1.34 per 1-SD unit [95% CI, 1.10-1.62] P=0.003) was associated with future cardiovascular hospitalization/death and outperformed classical VE/VCO2 measures used in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (VE/VCO2_{overall-slope}). In FHS (N=1936, age 54±9 years, 53% women), VE/VCO2 measures taken in low-to-moderate intensity exercise (including VE/VCO2_pre-VATslope, VE/VCO2_nadir) were directly associated with cardiovascular risk factor burden (smoking, Framingham cardiovascular disease risk score, and lower fitness; all P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Impaired ventilatory efficiency is associated with cardiovascular risk in the community and with adverse hemodynamic profiles and future hospitalizations/death in a referral population, highlighting the prognostic importance of easily acquired submaximum exercise ventilatory gas exchange measurements in broad populations with preserved left ventricular systolic function.

Cumulative sugar-sweetened beverage consumption is associated with higher concentrations of circulating ceramides in the Framingham Offspring Cohort

BACKGROUND

Ceramides have been implicated in the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Limited data exist on how habitual dietary intake of foods that can alter hepatic lipid metabolism may influence circulating ceramide concentrations.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the cross-sectional association of cumulative sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption with concentrations of 3 circulating ceramides and ceramide ratios.

METHODS

We examined participants from the Framingham Heart Study's Offspring Cohort who had 3 ceramides measured (n  = 1561, mean age 66 y, 59% women). SSB consumption was measured 4 times over ∼14 y. Participants were categorized by cumulative SSB intake as nonconsumers (0 to <1 SSB serving/mo) and occasional (1 SSB serving/mo to <1 serving/wk), frequent (1 SSB serving/wk to <1 serving/d), and daily (≥1 SSB serving/d) consumers. Multivariable linear regression models were used to relate cumulative SSB consumption (independent variable) to blood concentrations of ceramides (C16:0, C22:0, and C24:0) and ceramide ratios (C22:0/C16:0 and C24:0/C16:0).

RESULTS

In adjusted models, more frequent cumulative SSB consumption was positively associated with concentrations of the C16:0 and C22:0 ceramides (Ptrend < 0.05). Compared with nonconsumers, daily consumers had 0.01 μg/mL (95% CI: 0.002, 0.017 µg/mL) and 0.06 µg/mL (95% CI: 0.018, 0.092 µg/mL) higher mean concentrations of the C16:0 and C22:0 ceramides, respectively. Results were consistent when modeling continuous cumulative SSB consumption per 1 serving/d. We observed effect modification by diabetes status in the relation between cumulative SSB consumption and concentrations of the C24:0 ceramide (Pinteraction = 0.014). In a stratified analysis, more frequent cumulative SSB consumption was positively associated with concentrations of the C24:0 ceramide only in individuals with prediabetes or diabetes (Ptrend = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study raises the possibility that higher concentrations of distinct ceramide species, previously associated with adverse metabolic health, may be one mechanism by which SSB consumption contributes to higher risk of cardiometabolic diseases.

Circulating ceramide ratios and risk of vascular brain aging and dementia

Background

We determined the association between ratios of plasma ceramide species of differing fatty‐acyl chain lengths and incident dementia and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) dementia in a large, community‐based sample.

Methods

We measured plasma ceramide levels in 1892 [54% women, mean age 70.1 (SD 6.9) yr.] dementia‐free Framingham Offspring Study cohort participants between 2005 and 2008. We related ratios of very long‐chain (C24:0, C22:0) to long‐chain (C16:0) ceramides to subsequent risk of incident dementia and AD dementia. Structural MRI brain measures were included as secondary outcomes.

Results

During a median 6.5 year follow‐up, 81 participants developed dementia, of whom 60 were diagnosed with AD dementia. In multivariable Cox‐proportional hazards analyses, each standard deviation (SD) increment in the ratio of ceramides C24:0/C16:0 was associated with a 27% reduction in the risk of dementia (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.56–0.96) and AD dementia (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.53–1.00). The ratio of ceramides C22:0/C16:0 was also inversely associated with incident dementia (HR per SD 0.75, 95% CI 0.57–0.98), and approached statistical significance for AD (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.53–1.01, P = 0.056). Higher ratios of ceramides C24:0/C16:0 and C22:0/C16:0 were also cross‐sectionally associated with lower white matter hyperintensity burden on MRI (−0.05 ± 0.02, P = 0.02; −0.06 ± 0.02, P = 0.003; respectively per SD increase), but not with other MRI brain measures.

Conclusions

Higher plasma ratios of very long‐chain to long‐chain ceramides are associated with a reduced risk of incident dementia and AD dementia in our community‐based sample. Circulating ceramide ratios may serve as potential biomarkers for predicting dementia risk in cognitively healthy adults.

Left Ventricular Mass and Incident Chronic Kidney Disease

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with incident cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Whether subclinical cardiovascular disease and target organ damage is associated with incident CKD is unknown. We investigated the relations of echocardiographic left ventricular mass (LVM) with incident CKD. We evaluated 2258 Framingham Offspring cohort participants (mean age, 57 years; 56% women) who underwent echocardiography at a routine examination and had an estimated glomerular filtration rate ≥60 mL/min per 1.73 m². We used Cox proportional hazards regression with discrete time intervals to relate sex-standardized LVM (independent variable) to the incidence of CKD, defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 L/min per 1.73 m², on follow-up. During a median follow-up of 14.6 years, 373 (16.5%) participants developed incident CKD. Higher LVM was associated with higher risk of CKD after adjusting for prevalent cardiovascular disease, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, total and HDL (high-density lipoprotein) cholesterol, antihypertensive medication, smoking, and diabetes mellitus (hazard ratio, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.03-1.29]; P=0.017) per 1-SD increase in LVM g/m². Further adjustment for baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.04-1.31]; P=0.010) and baseline urine albumin/creatinine ratio (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.18 [95% CI, 1.04-1.33]; P=0.009) slightly attenuated the association. In our community-based sample, LVM was associated with incident CKD prospectively, which suggests that the relations between CKD and subclinical cardiovascular disease may be bidirectional. Further studies are needed to confirm our findings.

Genetic Architecture of Circulating Very-Long-Chain (C24:0 and C22:0) Ceramide Concentrations

OBJECTIVE

Total ceramide concentrations are linked with increased insulin resistance and cardiac dysfunction. However, recent studies have demonstrated that plasma concentrations of specific very-long-chain fatty ceramides (C24:0 and C22:0) are associated with a reduced incidence of coronary heart disease and all-cause mortality. We hypothesized that specific genetic loci are associated with plasma C22:0 and C24:0 concentrations.

METHODS

Heritability and genome-wide association studies of plasma C24:0 and C22:0 ceramide concentrations were performed among 2,217 participants in the Framingham Heart Study Offspring Cohort, adjusting for cardiovascular risk factor covariates and cardiovascular drug treatment.

RESULTS

The multivariable-adjusted heritability for C22:0 and C24:0 ceramides was 0.42 (standard error [SE], 0.07; p=1.8E-9) and 0.25 (SE, 0.08; p=0.00025), respectively. Nineteen single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), all on chromosome 20, significantly associated with C22:0 concentrations; the closest gene to these variants was SPTLC3. The lead SNP (rs4814175) significantly associated with 3% lower plasma C22:0 concentrations (p=2.83E-11). Nine SNPs, all on chromosome 20 and close to SPTLC3, were significantly associated with C24:0 ceramide concentrations. All 9 were also significantly related to plasma C22:0 levels. The lead SNP (rs168622) was significantly associated with 10% lower plasma C24:0 ceramide concentrations (p=9.94E-09).

CONCLUSION

SNPs near the SPTLC3 gene, which encodes serine palmitoyltransferase long chain base subunit 3 (SPTLC3; part of the enzyme that catalyzes the rate-limiting step of de novo sphingolipid synthesis) were associated with plasma C22:0 and C24:0 ceramide concentrations. These results are biologically plausible and suggest that SPTLC3 may be a potential therapeutic target for C24:0 and C22:0 ceramide modulation.

Prognostic Significance of Echocardiographic Measures of Cardiac Remodeling

BACKGROUND

In recent decades, novel echocardiographic measures have constantly emerged. It is still unclear which echocardiographic measures have the most significant prognostic value in the general population. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value of a large panel of echocardiographic measures to identify the most promising measures.

METHODS

A total of 1,497 Framingham study participants (mean age, 65 years; 55.4% women) who underwent echocardiographic measurements of left ventricular ejection fraction, left ventricular mass index, global longitudinal strain, global circumferential strain, mitral annular plane systolic excursion, mitral E/e' ratio, maximum and minimum left atrial (LA) volume index, LA emptying fraction, and left ventricular longitudinal synchrony were evaluated. These measures were related to the incidence of two composite outcomes: cardiovascular disease (CVD) or death and atrial fibrillation (AF) or congestive heart failure (CHF).

RESULTS

On follow-up (mean, 8.3 years), there were 241 CVD events or deaths and 139 AF or CHF events. In multivariate-adjusted Cox models, higher LA emptying fraction was associated with a lower risk (hazard ratios per SD, 0.80 and 0.70 for CVD or death and AF or CHF, respectively; P ≤ .001 for both) while higher minimum LA volume index (hazard ratios per SD, 1.32 and 1.70 for CVD or death and AF or CHF, respectively; P ≤ .001 for both) and maximum LA volume index (hazard ratios per SD, 1.26 and 1.54 for CVD or death and AF or CHF, respectively; P ≤ .002 for both) were associated with a higher risk for both composite outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

In this community-based sample, LA volumes and function were the best echocardiographic predictors of clinical outcomes. Therefore, these values should be considered for inclusion in standard echocardiographic assessments for the purpose of risk stratification.