Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Against All-Cause Mortality Following Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza in Older Adults, 2010-2011 to 2015-2016 Seasons in Ontario, Canada

BACKGROUND

Older adults are at increased risk of mortality from influenza infections. We estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against mortality following laboratory-confirmed influenza.

METHODS

Using a test-negative design study and linked laboratory and health administrative databases in Ontario, Canada, we estimated VE against all-cause mortality following laboratory-confirmed influenza for community-dwelling adults aged >65 years during the 2010-2011 to 2015-2016 influenza seasons.

RESULTS

Among 54 116 older adults tested for influenza across the 6 seasons, 6837 died within 30 days of specimen collection. Thirteen percent (925 individuals) tested positive for influenza, and 50.6% were considered vaccinated for that season. Only 23.2% of influenza test-positive cases had influenza recorded as their underlying cause of death. Before and after multivariable adjustment, we estimated VE against all-cause mortality following laboratory-confirmed influenza to be 20% (95% confidence interval [CI], 8%-30%) and 20% (95% CI, 7%-30%), respectively. This estimate increased to 34% after correcting for influenza vaccination exposure misclassification. We observed significant VE against deaths following influenza confirmation during 2014-2015 (VE = 26% [95% CI, 5%-42%]). We also observed significant VE against deaths following confirmation of influenza A/H1N1 and A/H3N2, and against deaths with COPD as the underlying cause.

CONCLUSIONS

These results support the importance of influenza vaccination in older adults, who account for most influenza-associated deaths annually.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality in a prospective cohort: The Ontario Health Study

BACKGROUND

Air pollution has been associated with increased mortality. However, updated evidence from cohort studies with detailed information on various risk factors is needed, especially in regions with low air pollution levels. We investigated the associations between long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality in a prospective cohort.

METHODS

We studied 88,615 participants aged ≥30 years from an ongoing cohort study in Ontario, Canada from 2009 to 2017. Exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) was estimated at participants' residence. Cox proportional hazard models were used to investigate the associations between air pollution and non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, adjusted for a wide array of individual-level and contextual covariates. Potential effect modification by socio-demographic and behavioral factors was also examined in exploratory stratified analyses.

RESULTS

The fully adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) per 1 µg/m³ increment in PM_2.5 were 1.037 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.018, 1.057]¸ 1.083 (95% CI: 1.040, 1.128) and 1.109 (95% CI: 1.035, 1.187) for non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. Positive associations were also found for NO₂; the corresponding HRs per 1 ppb increment were 1.027 (95% CI: 1.021, 1.034), 1.032 (95% CI: 1.019, 1.046) and 1.044 (95% CI: 1.020, 1.068). We found suggestive evidence of stronger associations in physically active participants, smokers, and those with lower household income.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term exposure to PM_2.5 and NO₂ was associated with increased risks for non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, suggesting potential benefits of further improvement in air quality even in low-exposure environments.

Exploring the reasons for low pertussis vaccine effectiveness in Ontario, Canada, 2006-2008: a Canadian Immunization Research Network study

OBJECTIVES

Although pertussis vaccines have been widely used for many decades, a burden of illness persists. Resurgences in Ontario, Canada, have not been substantial in the past decade, but an outbreak of pertussis occurred in Toronto between 1 October 2005 and 31 March 2006. Previous Ontario studies found high vaccine effectiveness (VE) in the initial years post-immunization. In order to explore the impact of outbreaks and external factors on VE, we investigated pertussis VE during the period 2006-2008.

METHODS

We assessed pertussis VE using a frequency-matched case-control study for the period 1 March 2006 to 31 December 2008. We used logistic regression to estimate VE by age, time since last vaccination, and vaccination status according to the Ontario recommended schedule. We compared analyses including and excluding cases from Toronto, and to two recent Ontario pertussis VE studies.

RESULTS

We included 1797 confirmed cases and 7188 matched controls. Most cases were under 4 years of age during the study period. Pertussis VE was 3.8% (95% CI: - 21.0, 24.0) in the period 15-364 days following the last pertussis vaccine dose, and increased with increasing time since vaccination. Pertussis VE in the first 15-364 days excluding Toronto increased to 57.1% (95% CI: 26.0, 75.1), but the trend of increasing VE with time since vaccination persisted. Although VE was higher in older (6-11 years) than younger (0-5 years) children, it was lower at 12-13 years than after 14 years.

CONCLUSION

VE was lower in comparison with other studies conducted in Ontario, particularly in younger children. Various factors occurring during the study period may have influenced the results, including clinical testing of asymptomatic contacts, laboratory testing and methods and reporting practice, and a sensitive case definition. Further studies are needed to optimize methods for measuring VE to inform pertussis vaccine policy.

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 covid-19 vaccines against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe covid-19 outcomes in Ontario, Canada: test negative design study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the effectiveness of mRNA covid-19 vaccines against symptomatic infection and severe outcomes (hospital admission or death).

DESIGN

Test negative design study.

SETTING

Ontario, Canada between 14 December 2020 and 19 April 2021.

PARTICIPANTS

324 033 community dwelling people aged ≥16 years who had symptoms of covid-19 and were tested for SARS-CoV-2.

INTERVENTIONS

BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) or mRNA-1273 (Moderna) vaccine.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and hospital admissions and deaths associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Multivariable logistic regression was adjusted for personal and clinical characteristics associated with SARS-CoV-2 and vaccine receipt to estimate vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection and severe outcomes.

RESULTS

Of 324 033 people with symptoms, 53 270 (16.4%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 and 21 272 (6.6%) received at least one dose of vaccine. Among participants who tested positive, 2479 (4.7%) were admitted to hospital or died. Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection observed ≥14 days after one dose was 60% (95% confidence interval 57% to 64%), increasing from 48% (41% to 54%) at 14-20 days after one dose to 71% (63% to 78%) at 35-41 days. Vaccine effectiveness observed ≥7 days after two doses was 91% (89% to 93%). Vaccine effectiveness against hospital admission or death observed ≥14 days after one dose was 70% (60% to 77%), increasing from 62% (44% to 75%) at 14-20 days to 91% (73% to 97%) at ≥35 days, whereas vaccine effectiveness observed ≥7 days after two doses was 98% (88% to 100%). For adults aged ≥70 years, vaccine effectiveness estimates were observed to be lower for intervals shortly after one dose but were comparable to those for younger people for all intervals after 28 days. After two doses, high vaccine effectiveness was observed against variants with the E484K mutation.

CONCLUSIONS

Two doses of mRNA covid-19 vaccines were observed to be highly effective against symptomatic infection and severe outcomes. Vaccine effectiveness of one dose was observed to be lower, particularly for older adults shortly after the first dose.

Déterminants individuels et sociaux du test de dépistage du SRAS-CoV-2 et de l’obtention d’un résultat positif en Ontario, au Canada: une étude populationnelle

Contexte:

Optimiser la réponse de la santé publique pour diminuer le fardeau de la COVID-19 nécessite la caractérisation de l’hétérogénéité du risque posé par la maladie à l’échelle de la population. Cependant, l’hétérogénéité du dépistage du SRAS-CoV-2 peut fausser les estimations selon le modèle d’étude analytique utilisé. Notre objectif était d’explorer les biais collisionneurs dans le cadre d’une vaste étude portant sur les déterminants de la maladie et d’évaluer les déterminants individuels, environnementaux et sociaux du dépistage et du diagnostic du SRAS-CoV-2 parmi les résidents de l’Ontario, au Canada.

Méthodes:

Nous avons exploré la présence potentielle de biais collisionneurs et caractérisé les déterminants individuels, environnementaux et sociaux de l’obtention d’un test de dépistage et d’un résultat positif à la présence de l’infection au SRAS-CoV-2 à l’aide d’analyses transversales parmi les 14,7 millions de personnes vivant dans la collectivité en Ontario, au Canada. Parmi les personnes ayant obtenu un diagnostic, nous avons utilisé des études analytiques distinctes afin de comparer les prédicteurs pour les personnes d’obtenir un résultat de test de dépistage positif plutôt que négatif, pour les personnes symptomatiques d’obtenir un résultat de test de dépistage positif plutôt que négatif et pour les personnes d’obtenir un résultat de test de dépistage positif plutôt que de ne pas obtenir un résultat positif (c.-à-d., obtenir un résultat de test de dépistage négatif ou ne pas obtenir de test de dépistage). Nos analyses comprennent des tests de dépistage réalisés entre le 1er mars et le 20 juin 2020.

Résultats:

Sur 14 695 579 personnes, nous avons constaté que 758 691 d’entre elles ont passé un test de dépistage du SRAS-CoV-2, parmi lesquelles 25 030 (3,3 %) ont obtenu un résultat positif. Plus la probabilité d’obtenir un test de dépistage s’éloignait de zéro, plus la variabilité généralement observée dans la probabilité d’un diagnostic était grande parmi les modèles d’études analytiques, particulièrement en ce qui a trait aux facteurs individuels. Nous avons constaté que la variabilité dans l’obtention d’un test de dépistage était moins importante en fonction des déterminants sociaux dans l’ensemble des études analytiques. Les facteurs tels que le fait d’habiter dans une région ayant une plus haute densité des ménages (rapport de cotes corrigé 1,86; intervalle de confiance [IC] à 95 % 1,75–1,98), une plus grande proportion de travailleurs essentiels (rapport de cotes corrigé 1,58; IC à 95 % 1,48–1,69), une population atteignant un plus faible niveau de scolarité (rapport de cotes corrigé 1,33; IC à 95 % 1,26–1,41) et une plus grande proportion d’immigrants récents (rapport de cotes corrigé 1,10; IC à 95 % 1,05–1,15), étaient systématiquement corrélés à une probabilité plus importante d’obtenir un diagnostic de SRAS-CoV-2, peu importe le modèle d’étude analytique employé.

Interprétation:

Lorsque la capacité de dépister est limitée, nos résultats suggèrent que les facteurs de risque peuvent être estimés plus adéquatement en utilisant des comparateurs populationnels plutôt que des comparateurs de résultat négatif au test de dépistage. Optimiser la lutte contre la COVID-19 nécessite des investissements dans des interventions structurelles déployées de façon suffisante et adaptées à l’hétérogénéité des déterminants sociaux du risque, dont le surpeuplement des ménages, l’occupation professionnelle et le racisme structurel.

Viral hepatitis C cascade of care: A population-level comparison of immigrant and long-term residents

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Viral hepatitis C represents a major global burden, particularly among immigrant-receiving countries such as Canada, where knowledge of disparities in hepatitis C virus among immigrant groups for micro-elimination efforts is lacking. We quantify the hepatitis C cascades of care among immigrants and long-term residents prior to the introduction of direct-acting antiviral medications.

METHODS

Using laboratory and health administrative records, we described the hepatitis C virus cascades of care in terms of diagnosis, engagement with care, treatment initiation, and clearance in Ontario, Canada (1997-2014). We stratified the cascade by immigrant and long-term resident groups and identify drivers at each stage using multivariable Poisson regression.

RESULTS

We included 940 245 individuals in the study with an estimated hepatitis C prevalence of 167 923 (1.4%) overall, 23 759 (0.7%) among all immigrants, and 6019 (1.1%) among immigrants from hepatitis C endemic countries. Overall there were 104 616 individuals with reactive antibody results, 73 861 tested for viral RNA, 52 388 with viral RNA detected, 50 805 genotyped, 13 159 on treatment and 3919 with evidence of viral clearance. Compared to long-term residents, immigrants showed increased nucleic-acid testing (aRR: 1.09 [95%CI: 1.08, 1.10]), treatment initiation (aRR: 1.46 [95%CI: 1.38, 1.54]), and higher clearance rates (aRR: 1.07 [95%CI: 1.03, 1.11]).

CONCLUSIONS

Hepatitis C virus is more prevalent among long-term residents compared to immigrants overall, however, immigrants from endemic countries are an important subgroup to consider for future screening and linkage to care initiatives. These findings are prior to the introduction of newer medications and provide a population-based benchmark for follow-up studies and evaluation of treatment programs and surveillance activities.

The Role of a Resilient Information Infrastructure in COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake in Ontario

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for a robust and nimble public health data infrastructure. ICES - a government-sponsored, independent, non-profit research institute in Ontario, Canada - functions as a key component of a resilient information infrastructure and an enabler of data co-production, contributing to Ontario's response to the COVID-19 pandemic as part of a learning health system. Linked data on the cumulative incidence of infection and vaccination at the neighbourhood level revealed disparate uptake between areas with low versus high risk of COVID-19. These data were leveraged by the government, service providers, media and the public to inform a more efficient and equitable vaccination strategy.

Air Pollution as a Risk Factor for Incident Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Asthma. A 15-Year Population-based Cohort Study

Rationale: Current evidence on the relationship between long-term exposure to air pollution and new onset of chronic lung disease is inconclusive.Objectives: To examine associations of incident chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and adult-onset asthma with past exposure to fine particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in diameter (PM_2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), ozone (O₃), and the redox-weighted average of NO₂ and O₃ (O_x) and characterize the concentration-response relationship.Methods: We conducted a population-based cohort study of all Ontarians, aged 35-85 years, from 2001 to 2015. A 3-year moving average of residential exposures to selected pollutants with a 1-year lag were estimated during follow-up. We used Cox proportional hazard models and Aalen additive-hazard models to quantify the pollution-disease associations and characterized the shape of these relationships using newly developed nonlinear risk models.Measurements and Main Results: Among 5.1 million adults, we identified 340,733 and 218,005 incident cases of COPD and asthma, respectively. We found positive associations of COPD with PM_2.5 per interquartile-range (IQR) increase of 3.4 μg/m³ (hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.08), NO₂ per IQR increase of 13.9 ppb (1.04; 1.02-1.05), O₃ per IQR increase of 6.3 ppb (1.04; 1.03-1.04), and O_x per IQR increase of 4.4 ppb (1.03; 1.03-1.03). By contrast, we did not find strong evidence linking these pollutants to adult-onset asthma. In addition, we quantified that each IQR increase in pollution exposure yielded 3.0 (2.4-3.6), 3.2 (2.0-4.3), 1.9 (1.3-2.5), and 2.3 (1.7-2.9) excess cases of COPD per 100,000 adults for PM_2.5, NO₂, O₃, and O_x, respectively. Furthermore, most pollutant-COPD relationships exhibited supralinear shapes.Conclusions: Air pollution was associated with a higher incidence of COPD but was not associated with a higher incidence of adult-onset asthma.

Increasing concentration of COVID-19 by socioeconomic determinants and geography in Toronto, Canada: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Inequities in the burden of COVID-19 were observed early in Canada and around the world suggesting economically marginalized communities faced disproportionate risks. However, there has been limited systematic assessment of how heterogeneity in risks has evolved in large urban centers over time.

PURPOSE

To address this gap, we quantified the magnitude of risk heterogeneity in Toronto, Ontario from January-November, 2020 using a retrospective, population-based observational study using surveillance data.

METHODS

We generated epidemic curves by social determinants of health (SDOH) and crude Lorenz curves by neighbourhoods to visualize inequities in the distribution of COVID-19 and estimated Gini coefficients. We examined the correlation between SDOH using Pearson-correlation coefficients.

RESULTS

Gini coefficient of cumulative cases by population size was 0.41 (95% confidence interval [CI]:0.36-0.47) and estimated for: household income (0.20, 95%CI: 0.14-0.28); visible minority (0.21, 95%CI:0.16-0.28); recent immigration (0.12, 95%CI:0.09-0.16); suitable housing (0.21, 95%CI:0.14-0.30); multi-generational households (0.19, 95%CI:0.15-0.23); and essential workers (0.28, 95%CI:0.23-0.34).

CONCLUSIONS

There was rapid epidemiologic transition from higher to lower income neighbourhoods with Lorenz curve transitioning from below to above the line of equality across SDOH. Moving forward necessitates integrating programs and policies addressing socioeconomic inequities and structural racism into COVID-19 prevention and vaccination programs.

A disproportionate epidemic: COVID-19 cases and deaths among essential workers in Toronto, Canada

Shelter-in-place mandates and closure of nonessential businesses have been central to COVID19 response strategies including in Toronto, Canada. Approximately half of the working population in Canada are employed in occupations that do not allow for remote work suggesting potentially limited impact of some of the strategies proposed to mitigate COVID-19 acquisition and onward transmission risks and associated morbidity and mortality. We compared per-capita rates of COVID-19 cases and deaths from January 23, 2020 to January 24, 2021, across neighborhoods in Toronto by proportion of the population working in essential services. We used person-level data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 community cases and deaths, and census data for neighborhood-level attributes. Cumulative per-capita rates of COVID-19 cases and deaths were 3.3-fold and 2.5-fold higher, respectively, in neighborhoods with the highest versus lowest concentration of essential workers. Findings suggest that the population who continued to serve the essential needs of society throughout COVID-19 shouldered a disproportionate burden of transmission and deaths. Taken together, results signal the need for active intervention strategies to complement restrictive measures to optimize both the equity and effectiveness of COVID-19 responses.

Background rates of all-cause mortality, hospitalizations, and emergency department visits among nursing home residents in Ontario, Canada to inform COVID-19 vaccine safety assessments

Background

Nursing home (NH) residents are prioritized for COVID-19 vaccination. We report monthly mortality, hospitalizations, and emergency department (ED) visit incidence rates (IRs) during 2010–2020 to provide context for COVID-19 vaccine safety assessments.

Methods

We observed outcomes among all NH residents in Ontario using administrative databases. IRs were calculated by month, sex, and age group. Comparisons between months were assessed using one-sample t-tests; comparisons by age and sex were assessed using chi-squared tests.

Results

From 2010 to 2019, there were 83,453 (SD: 652.4) NH residents per month, with an average of 2.3 (SD: 0.28) deaths, 3.1 (SD: 0.16) hospitalizations, and 3.6 (SD: 0.17) ED visits per 100 residents per month. From March to December 2020, mortality IRs were increased, but hospitalization and ED visit IRs were reduced (p < 0.05).

Conclusion

We identified consistent monthly mortality, hospitalization, and ED visit IRs during 2010–2019. Marked differences in these rates were observed during 2020, coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The impact of acute pneumococcal disease on health state utility values: a systematic review

PURPOSE

Streptococcus pneumoniae infections remain a significant source of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The purpose of this review was to summarize the impact of pneumococcal disease on health state utilities (HSU) in the acute phase of illness.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, EconLit, the Health Technology Assessment Database, the National Health Economic Evaluation Database, and Tufts Cost-Effectiveness Registry (up to January 2020) for primary studies. Eligible studies elicited HSU estimates using preference-based instruments for the acute phase of infection of pneumococcal syndromes including acute otitis media, pneumonia/lower respiratory tract infections, bacteremia/sepsis, and meningitis. Two reviewers independently conducted screening, data extraction and quality appraisal.

RESULTS

We screened 10,178 studies, of which 26 met our inclusion criteria. Cohort sizes ranged from 8 to 2060 respondents. The most frequently studied syndrome was pneumonia (n = 17), followed by acute otitis media (n = 9), meningitis (n = 7) and bacteremia/sepsis (n = 4). Overall, each syndrome was associated with a substantial impact on HSU. Bacteremia/sepsis (range: - 0.331 to 0.992) and meningitis (range: - 0.330 to 0.977) were generally associated with the lowest HSU, followed by pneumonia (range: - 0.054 to 0.998) and acute otitis media (range: 0.064 to 0.970). HSU estimates varied considerably by treatment setting, elicitation method and type of respondent. The only study to compare pneumococcal infections to non-pneumococcal infections in the same population revealed significantly lower HSU estimates among pneumococcal infections.

CONCLUSIONS

Pneumococcal syndromes are associated with decreased HSU estimates. Given the considerable heterogeneity in methods and source populations as well as study quality, care should be taken to select the most appropriate estimates.

Long-term exposure to iron and copper in fine particulate air pollution and their combined impact on reactive oxygen species concentration in lung fluid: a population-based cohort study of cardiovascular disease incidence and mortality in Toronto, Canada

BACKGROUND

Exposure to fine particulate (PM2.5) air pollution is associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD), but less is known about its specific components, such as metals originating from non-tailpipe emissions. We investigated the associations of long-term exposure to metal components [iron (Fe) and copper (Cu)] in PM2.5 with CVD incidence.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based cohort study in Toronto, Canada. Exposures to Fe and Cu in PM2.5 and their combined impact on the concentration of reactive oxygen species (ROS) in lung fluid were estimated using land use regression models. Incidence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), congestive heart failure (CHF) and CVD death was ascertained using health administrative datasets. We used mixed-effects Cox regression models to examine the associations between the exposures and health outcomes. A series of sensitivity analyses were conducted, including indirect adjustment for individual-level cardiovascular risk factors (e.g. smoking), and adjustment for PM2.5 and nitrogen dioxide (NO2).

RESULTS

In single-pollutant models, we found positive associations between the three exposures and all three outcomes, with the strongest associations detected for the estimated ROS. The associations of AMI and CHF were sensitive to indirect adjustment, but remained robust for CVD death in all sensitivity analyses. In multi-pollutant models, the associations of the three exposures generally remained unaltered. Interestingly, adjustment for ROS did not substantially change the associations between PM2.5 and CVD, but attenuated the associations of NO2.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term exposure to Fe and Cu in PM2.5 and their combined impact on ROS were consistently associated with increased CVD death.

A Call for Caution in Use of Pertussis Vaccine Effectiveness Studies to Estimate Waning Immunity: A Canadian Immunization Research Network Study

BACKGROUND

Vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies provide essential evidence on waning vaccine-derived immunity, a major threat to pertussis control. We evaluated how study design affects estimates by comparing 2 case-control studies conducted in Ontario, Canada.

METHODS

We compared results from a test-negative design (TND) with a frequency-matched design (FMD) case-control study using pertussis cases from 2005-2015. In the first study, we identified test-negative controls from the public health laboratory that diagnosed cases and, in the second, randomly selected controls from patients attending the same physicians that reported cases, frequency matched on age and year. We compared characteristics of cases and controls using standardized differences.

RESULTS

In both designs, VE estimates for the early years postimmunization were consistent with clinical trials (TND, 84%; FMD, 89% at 1-3 years postvaccination) but diverged as time since last vaccination increased (TND, 41%; FMD, 74% by 8 years postvaccination). Overall, we observed lower VE and faster waning in the TND than the FMD. In the TND but not FMD, controls differed from cases in important confounders, being younger, having more comorbidities, and higher healthcare use. Differences between the controls of each design were greater than differences between cases. TND controls were more likely to be unvaccinated or incompletely vaccinated than FMD controls (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

The FMD adjusted better for healthcare-seeking behavior than the TND. Duration of protection from pertussis vaccines is unclear because estimates vary by study design. Caution should be exercised by experts, researchers, and decision makers when evaluating evidence on optimal timing of boosters.

Duration of SARS-CoV-2 shedding: A population-based, Canadian study

INTRODUCTION

There is an evidence gap regarding the duration of SARS-CoV-2 shedding and of its variability across different care settings and by age, sex, income, and co-morbidities. Such evidence is part of understanding of infectivity and reinfection. We examine direct measures of viral shedding using a linked population-based health administrative dataset.

METHODS

Laboratory and sociodemographic databases for Ontario, Canada were linked to identify those testing positive (RT-PCR) between Jan. 15 and April 30, 2020 who underwent subsequent testing by May 31, 2020. To maximise use of available data, we computed two shedding duration estimates defined as the time between initial positive and most recent positive (documented shedding) or second of two negative tests (documented resolution). We also report multivariable results using quantile regression to examine subgroup differences.

RESULTS

In Ontario, of the 16,595 who tested positive before April 30, 2020, 6604 had sufficient subsequent testing to allow shedding duration calculation. Documented shedding median duration calculated in 4,889 (29% of 16,595) patients was 19 days (IQR 12-28). Documented resolution median duration calculated in 3,219 (19% of the 16,595) patients was 25 days (IQR 18-34). Long-term care residents had 3-5 day longer shedding durations using both definitions. Shorter documented shedding durations of 2-4 days were observed in those living in higher income neighbourhoods. Shorter documented resolution durations of 2-3 days were observed at the 25th% of the distribution in those aged 20-49. Only 11.5% of those with definitive negative test results reverted to negative status by day 14.

CONCLUSIONS

Viral shedding continued well beyond 14 days among this large subset of a population-based group with COVID-19, and longer still for long-term care residents and those living in less affluent neighborhoods. Our findings do not speak to duration of infectivity but are useful for understanding the expected duration of RT-PCR positivity and for identifying reinfection.

Association of Maternal Influenza Vaccination During Pregnancy With Early Childhood Health Outcomes

IMPORTANCE

Seasonal influenza vaccination in pregnancy can reduce influenza illness among pregnant women and newborns. Evidence is limited on whether seasonal influenza vaccination in pregnancy is associated with adverse childhood health outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between maternal influenza vaccination during pregnancy and early childhood health outcomes.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective cohort study, using a birth registry linked with health administrative data. All live births in Nova Scotia, Canada, between October 1, 2010, and March 31, 2014, were included, with follow-up until March 31, 2016. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% confidence intervals were estimated while controlling for maternal medical history and other potential confounders using inverse probability of treatment weighting.

EXPOSURES

Seasonal influenza vaccination during pregnancy.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Childhood outcomes studied were immune-related (eg, asthma, infections), non-immune-related (eg, neoplasms, sensory impairment), and nonspecific (eg, urgent or inpatient health care utilization), measured from emergency department and hospitalization databases.

RESULTS

Among 28 255 children (49% female, 92% born at ≥37 weeks' gestation), 10 227 (36.2%) were born to women who received seasonal influenza vaccination during pregnancy. During a mean follow-up of 3.6 years, there was no significant association between maternal influenza vaccination and childhood asthma (incidence rate, 3.0 vs 2.5 per 1000 person-years; difference, 0.53 per 1000 person-years [95% CI, -0.15 to 1.21]; adjusted HR, 1.22 [95% CI, 0.94 to 1.59]), neoplasms (0.32 vs 0.26 per 1000 person-years; difference, 0.06 per 1000 person-years [95% CI, -0.16 to 0.28]; adjusted HR, 1.26 [95% CI, 0.57 to 2.78]), or sensory impairment (0.80 vs 0.97 per 1000 person-years; difference, -0.17 per 1000 person-years [95% CI, -0.54 to 0.21]; adjusted HR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.49 to 1.37]). Maternal influenza vaccination in pregnancy was not significantly associated with infections in early childhood (incidence rate, 184.6 vs 179.1 per 1000 person-years; difference, 5.44 per 1000 person-years [95% CI, 0.01 to 10.9]; adjusted IRR, 1.07 [95% CI, 0.99 to 1.15]) or with urgent and inpatient health services utilization (511.7 vs 477.8 per 1000 person-years; difference, 33.9 per 1000 person-years [95% CI, 24.9 to 42.9]; adjusted IRR, 1.05 [95% CI, 0.99 to 1.16]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this population-based cohort study with mean follow-up duration of 3.6 years, maternal influenza vaccination during pregnancy was not significantly associated with an increased risk of adverse early childhood health outcomes.

Diagnosis of Chronic Hepatitis B Pericomplication: Risk factors and Trends Over Time

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a major cause of chronic liver disease, which can progress to cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and death. A timely diagnosis allows for antiviral treatment, which can prevent liver-related complications. Conversely, a late diagnosis signals a missed opportunity for earlier care and treatment. Our objective was to measure the proportion of chronic HBV diagnoses that are made within 6 months of presentation with a liver disease-related complication and examine associated factors and trends over time.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We used provincial laboratory data to identify patients with chronic HBV diagnosed from 2003 to 2014. We measured the proportion who experienced a liver disease complication (decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, or liver transplant) within ±6 months of their HBV diagnosis date. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with HBV diagnosis pericomplication. Of 18,434 patients with chronic HBV, 1,279 (6.9%) developed an HBV-related complication during the follow-up period. Among these, 570 (44.6%) had a first diagnosis pericomplication. HBV diagnosis pericomplication did not decrease over time and was independently associated with older age at HBV diagnosis, rural residence, alcohol use, and moderate to high levels of comorbidity. Female patients, immigrants, and those with more outpatient physician visits were less likely to have an HBV diagnosis pericomplication.

CONCLUSIONS

A high proportion of patients with HBV-related complications are first diagnosed with HBV pericomplication. These signal missed opportunities for earlier detection and treatment. Our findings support expansion of HBV screening.

Validating viral hepatitis B and C diagnosis codes: a retrospective analysis using Ontario's health administrative data

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to determine the criterion validity of using diagnosis codes for hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) to identify infections.

METHODS

Using linked laboratory and administrative data in Ontario, Canada, from January 2004 to December 2014, we validated HBV/HCV diagnosis codes against laboratory-confirmed infections. Performance measures (sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value) were estimated via cross-validated logistic regression and we explored variations by varying time windows from 1 to 5 years before (i.e., prognostic prediction) and after (i.e., diagnostic prediction) the date of laboratory confirmation. Subgroup analyses were performed among immigrants, males, baby boomers, and females to examine the robustness of these measures.

RESULTS

A total of 1,599,023 individuals were tested for HBV and 840,924 for HCV, with a resulting 41,714 (2.7%) and 58,563 (7.0%) infections identified, respectively. HBV/HCV diagnosis codes ± 3 years of laboratory confirmation showed high specificity (99.9% HBV; 99.8% HCV), moderate positive predictive value (70.3% HBV; 85.8% HCV), and low sensitivity (12.8% HBV; 30.8% HCV). Varying the time window resulted in limited changes to performance measures. Diagnostic models consistently outperformed prognostic models. No major differences were observed among subgroups.

CONCLUSION

HBV/HCV codes should not be the only source used for monitoring the population burden of these infections, due to low sensitivity and moderate positive predictive values. These results underscore the importance of ongoing laboratory and reportable disease surveillance systems for monitoring viral hepatitis in Ontario.

Individual and social determinants of SARS-CoV-2 testing and positivity in Ontario, Canada: a population-wide study

BACKGROUND

Optimizing the public health response to reduce the burden of COVID-19 necessitates characterizing population-level heterogeneity of risks for the disease. However, heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 testing may introduce biased estimates depending on analytic design. We aimed to explore the potential for collider bias in a large study of disease determinants, and evaluate individual, environmental and social determinants associated with SARS-CoV-2 testing and diagnosis among residents of Ontario, Canada.

METHODS

We explored the potential for collider bias and characterized individual, environmental and social determinants of being tested and testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection using cross-sectional analyses among 14.7 million community-dwelling people in Ontario, Canada. Among those with a diagnosis, we used separate analytic designs to compare predictors of people testing positive versus negative; symptomatic people testing positive versus testing negative; and people testing positive versus people not testing positive (i.e., testing negative or not being tested). Our analyses included tests conducted between Mar. 1 and June 20, 2020.

RESULTS

Of 14 695 579 people, we found that 758 691 were tested for SARS-CoV-2, of whom 25 030 (3.3%) had a positive test result. The further the odds of testing from the null, the more variability we generally observed in the odds of diagnosis across analytic design, particularly among individual factors. We found that there was less variability in testing by social determinants across analytic designs. Residing in areas with the highest household density (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.86, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.75-1.98), highest proportion of essential workers (adjusted OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.48-1.69), lowest educational attainment (adjusted OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.26-1.41) and highest proportion of recent immigrants (adjusted OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.05-1.15) were consistently related to increased odds of SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis regardless of analytic design.

INTERPRETATION

Where testing is limited, our results suggest that risk factors may be better estimated using population comparators rather than test-negative comparators. Optimizing COVID-19 responses necessitates investment in and sufficient coverage of structural interventions tailored to heterogeneity in social determinants of risk, including household crowding, occupation and structural racism.

Individual and social determinants of SARS-CoV-2 testing and positivity in Ontario, Canada: a population-wide study

BACKGROUND

Optimizing the public health response to reduce the burden of COVID-19 necessitates characterizing population-level heterogeneity of risks for the disease. However, heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 testing may introduce biased estimates depending on analytic design. We aimed to explore the potential for collider bias in a large study of disease determinants, and evaluate individual, environmental and social determinants associated with SARS-CoV-2 testing and diagnosis among residents of Ontario, Canada.

METHODS

We explored the potential for collider bias and characterized individual, environmental and social determinants of being tested and testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection using cross-sectional analyses among 14.7 million community-dwelling people in Ontario, Canada. Among those with a diagnosis, we used separate analytic designs to compare predictors of people testing positive versus negative; symptomatic people testing positive versus testing negative; and people testing positive versus people not testing positive (i.e., testing negative or not being tested). Our analyses included tests conducted between Mar. 1 and June 20, 2020.

RESULTS

Of 14 695 579 people, we found that 758 691 were tested for SARS-CoV-2, of whom 25 030 (3.3%) had a positive test result. The further the odds of testing from the null, the more variability we generally observed in the odds of diagnosis across analytic design, particularly among individual factors. We found that there was less variability in testing by social determinants across analytic designs. Residing in areas with the highest household density (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.86, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.75-1.98), highest proportion of essential workers (adjusted OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.48-1.69), lowest educational attainment (adjusted OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.26-1.41) and highest proportion of recent immigrants (adjusted OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.05-1.15) were consistently related to increased odds of SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis regardless of analytic design.

INTERPRETATION

Where testing is limited, our results suggest that risk factors may be better estimated using population comparators rather than test-negative comparators. Optimizing COVID-19 responses necessitates investment in and sufficient coverage of structural interventions tailored to heterogeneity in social determinants of risk, including household crowding, occupation and structural racism.

Impact of a peer comparison intervention on seasonal influenza vaccine uptake in community pharmacy: A national cluster randomized study

BACKGROUND

Seasonal influenza vaccine (SIV) uptake in the United States remains suboptimal, requiring new and innovative strategies.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact of a behavioral peer comparison (PC) intervention on SIV uptake in community pharmacies across the United States.

METHODS

A cluster randomized study was conducted across a national network of Walmart community pharmacies (> 4500 sites) during the 2019-2020 influenza season. The clusters consisted of 416 markets, each containing an average of 11 pharmacies. All pharmacies in a market were randomly assigned to either no intervention or the PC intervention, a software-delivered communication informing on-site staff, including pharmacists and pharmacy technicians, of their pharmacy's weekly performance, measured as SIV doses administered, compared with that of peer pharmacies within their market. The outcome was the pharmacy-level cumulative SIV doses administered during the intervention period (September 1, 2019,-February 29, 2020). Linear regression models were used to estimate the PC impact, with multiway cluster-robust SEs estimated by market and state.

RESULTS

A total of 4589 pharmacies were enrolled in the study, with 2297 (50.1%) randomized to the control group and 2292 (49.9%) randomized to the PC intervention group. Overall, compared with the control pharmacies, the PC pharmacies administered 3.7% (95% CI -0.3% to 7.9%) additional SIV doses. Among large-format pharmacies, the PC pharmacies administered 4.1% (95% CI 0.1%-8.3%) additional SIV doses compared with the controls. Historically low-performing large-format PC pharmacies administered 6.1% (95% CI 0.5%-11.9%) additional SIV doses compared with the controls. No statistically significant treatment effects were observed among small-format pharmacies.

CONCLUSION

Our findings demonstrate that PCs can improve SIV uptake among large-format community pharmacies, with historically low-performing pharmacies potentially exhibiting the greatest relative impact. Wide-scale implementation of PCs in community pharmacies may help to further improve SIV uptake in these settings.

Health Outcomes in Young Children Following Pertussis Vaccination During Pregnancy

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Maternal immunization with tetanus, diphtheria, and acellular pertussis vaccine (Tdap) is routinely recommended in many countries as a strategy to protect young infants against severe pertussis infection; few studies have assessed whether prenatal exposure to the vaccine is associated with any longer-term adverse health effects in children. We evaluated the long-term safety of exposure to Tdap vaccination during pregnancy.

METHODS

Population-based retrospective cohort study conducted in Ontario, Canada using multiple linked province-wide health administrative databases. All live births between April 2012 and March 2017 were included, and children were followed for up to 6 years to ascertain study outcomes. Children exposed to prenatal Tdap were propensity score matched to unexposed children at a 1:5 ratio. Tdap vaccination during pregnancy was ascertained by using vaccine-specific fee codes. Immune-related (infectious diseases, asthma) and nonimmune-related (neoplasm, sensory disorders) outcomes and a nonspecific morbidity outcome (urgent or inpatient health service use) were evaluated from birth to end of follow-up.

RESULTS

Of 625 643 live births, 12 045 (1.9%) were exposed to Tdap in utero. There were no significant increased risks of adverse childhood outcomes and prenatal Tdap exposure; however, we observed inverse associations (adjusted incidence rate ratio [95% confidence interval]) with upper respiratory infections (0.94 [0.90-0.99]), gastrointestinal infections (0.85 [0.79-0.91]), and urgent and inpatient health service use (0.93 [0.91-0.96]).

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to Tdap vaccination in pregnancy was not associated with any increased risk of adverse health outcomes in early childhood, supporting the long-term safety of Tdap administration in pregnancy.

Obstetric and perinatal health outcomes after pertussis vaccination during pregnancy in Ontario, Canada: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

In February 2018, Canada's National Advisory Committee on Immunization recommended maternal vaccination with tetanus-diphtheria-acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccine during pregnancy to prevent severe pertussis infection in young infants. This study assessed the relation between maternal Tdap vaccination and obstetric and perinatal outcomes in Ontario.

METHODS

We performed a population-based cohort study of all births from April 2012 to March 2017 using multiple linked health administrative databases. We used Cox regression with a time-dependent exposure variable to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for preterm birth (< 37 wk), very preterm birth (< 32 wk) and stillbirth. We assessed remaining outcomes (gestational hypertension, chorioamnionitis, postpartum hemorrhage, severe postpartum hemorrhage, being small for gestational age, neonatal intensive care unit stay > 24 h, composite neonatal morbidity) using log-binomial regression to generate adjusted risk ratios (RRs). We adjusted estimates for potential confounding using propensity score weighting.

RESULTS

Of 615 213 infants (live births and stillbirths), 11 519 were exposed to Tdap vaccination in utero. There was no increased risk for preterm birth (adjusted HR 0.98, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.91-1.06), very preterm birth (adjusted HR 1.10, 95% CI 0.86-1.41), stillbirth (adjusted HR 1.15, 95% CI 0.82-1.60) or being small for gestational age (adjusted RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.90-1.02). The risks of a neonatal intensive care unit stay exceeding 24 hours (adjusted RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.76-0.88) and neonatal morbidity (adjusted RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.75-0.87) were decreased. There was no association with chorioamnionitis (adjusted RR 1.17, 95% CI 0.99-1.39), postpartum hemorrhage (adjusted RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.91-1.13) or severe postpartum hemorrhage (adjusted RR 0.79, 95% CI 0.55-1.13), but we observed a reduced risk of gestational hypertension (adjusted RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.78-0.96).

INTERPRETATION

Our results complement evidence that maternal Tdap vaccination is not associated with adverse outcomes in mothers or infants. Ongoing evaluation in Canada is needed as maternal Tdap vaccination coverage increases in coming years.

Family and Child Risk Factors for Early-Life RSV Illness

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Most infants hospitalized with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) do not meet common "high-risk" criteria and are otherwise healthy. The objective of this study was to quantify the risks and relative importance of socioeconomic factors for severe, early-life RSV-related illness. We hypothesized several of these factors, particularly those indicating severe social vulnerability, would have statistically significant associations with increased RSV hospitalization rates and may offer impactful targets for population-based RSV prevention strategies, such as prophylaxis programs.

METHODS

We used linked health, laboratory, and sociodemographic administrative data for all children born in Ontario (2012-2018) to identify all RSV-related hospitalizations occurring before the third birthday or end of follow-up (March 31, 2019). We estimated rate ratios and population attributable fractions using a fully adjusted model.

RESULTS

A total of 11 782 RSV-related hospitalizations were identified among 789 484 children. Multiple socioeconomic factors were independently associated with increased RSV-related admissions, including young maternal age, maternal criminal involvement, and maternal history of serious mental health and/or addiction concerns. For example, an estimated 4.1% (95% confidence interval: 2.2 to 5.9) of RSV-related admissions could be prevented by eliminating the increased admissions risks among children whose mothers used welfare-based drug insurance. Notably, 41.6% (95% confidence interval: 39.6 to 43.5) of admissions may be prevented by targeting older siblings (eg, through vaccination).

CONCLUSIONS

Many social factors were independently associated with early-life RSV-related hospitalization. Existing RSV prophylaxis and emerging vaccination programs should consider the importance of both clinical and social risk factors when determining eligibility and promoting compliance.