Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage prevalence in Nepal: evaluation of a method for delayed transport of samples from remote regions and implications for vaccine implementation

BACKGROUND

Pneumococcal disease is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in young children in Nepal, and currently available pneumococcal conjugate vaccines offer moderate coverage of invasive disease isolates.

METHODS

A prevalence study of children aged 1.5 to 24 months in urban and rural Nepal was conducted. In the urban group, nasopharyngeal swabs (NPS) were transported using silica desiccant packages (SDP) with delayed processing (2 weeks), or skim-milk-tryptone-glucose-glycerin (STGG) with immediate processing (within 8 hours). Pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage prevalence, serogroup/type distribution and isolate genotypes (as defined by multilocus sequence typing) were determined.

RESULTS

1101 children were enrolled into the study: 574 in the urban group and 527 in the rural group. Overall carriage prevalence based on culture from specimens transported and stored in STGG was 58.7% (337/574), compared to 40.9% (235/574) in SDP. There was concordance of detection of pneumococcus in 67% of samples. Using the SDP method, pneumococcal carriage prevalence was higher in the rural population (69.2%; 364/526) compared to the urban population (40.9%; 235/574). Serogroup/type distribution varied with geographical location. Over half of the genotypes identified in both the urban and rural pneumococcal populations were novel.

CONCLUSION

The combination of delayed culture and transport using SDP underestimates the prevalence of pneumococcal carriage; however, in remote areas, this method could still provide a useful estimate of carriage prevalence and serogroup/type distribution. Vaccine impact is unpredictable in a setting with novel genotypes and limited serotype coverage as described here. Consequently, continued surveillance of pneumococcal isolates from carriage and disease in Nepali children following the planned introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines introduction will be essential.

External validation of multivariable prediction models: a systematic review of methodological conduct and reporting

BACKGROUND

Before considering whether to use a multivariable (diagnostic or prognostic) prediction model, it is essential that its performance be evaluated in data that were not used to develop the model (referred to as external validation). We critically appraised the methodological conduct and reporting of external validation studies of multivariable prediction models.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of articles describing some form of external validation of one or more multivariable prediction models indexed in PubMed core clinical journals published in 2010. Study data were extracted in duplicate on design, sample size, handling of missing data, reference to the original study developing the prediction models and predictive performance measures.

RESULTS

11,826 articles were identified and 78 were included for full review, which described the evaluation of 120 prediction models. in participant data that were not used to develop the model. Thirty-three articles described both the development of a prediction model and an evaluation of its performance on a separate dataset, and 45 articles described only the evaluation of an existing published prediction model on another dataset. Fifty-seven percent of the prediction models were presented and evaluated as simplified scoring systems. Sixteen percent of articles failed to report the number of outcome events in the validation datasets. Fifty-four percent of studies made no explicit mention of missing data. Sixty-seven percent did not report evaluating model calibration whilst most studies evaluated model discrimination. It was often unclear whether the reported performance measures were for the full regression model or for the simplified models.

CONCLUSIONS

The vast majority of studies describing some form of external validation of a multivariable prediction model were poorly reported with key details frequently not presented. The validation studies were characterised by poor design, inappropriate handling and acknowledgement of missing data and one of the most key performance measures of prediction models i.e. calibration often omitted from the publication. It may therefore not be surprising that an overwhelming majority of developed prediction models are not used in practice, when there is a dearth of well-conducted and clearly reported (external validation) studies describing their performance on independent participant data.

Pneumococcal serotype-specific antibodies persist through early childhood after infant immunization: follow-up from a randomized controlled trial

Background

In a previous UK multi-center randomized study 278 children received three doses of 7-valent (PCV-7) or 13-valent (PCV-13) pneumococcal conjugate vaccine at 2, 4 and 12 months of age. At 13 months of age, most of these children had pneumococcal serotype-specific IgG concentrations ≥0.35 µg/ml and opsonophagocytic assay (OPA) titers ≥8.

Methods

Children who had participated in the original study were enrolled again at 3.5 years of age. Persistence of immunity following infant immunization with either PCV-7 or PCV-13 and the immune response to a PCV-13 booster at pre-school age were investigated.

Results

In total, 108 children were followed-up to the age of 3.5 years and received a PCV-13 booster at this age. At least 76% of children who received PCV-7 or PCV-13 in infancy retained serotype-specific IgG concentrations ≥0.35 µg/ml against each of 5/7 shared serotypes. For serotypes 4 and 18C, persistence was lower at 22–42%. At least 71% of PCV-13 group participants had IgG concentrations ≥0.35 µg/ml against each of 4/6 of the additional PCV-13 serotypes; for serotypes 1 and 3 this proportion was 45% and 52%. In the PCV-7 group these percentages were significantly lower for serotypes 1, 5 and 7F. A pre-school PCV-13 booster was highly immunogenic and resulted in low rates of local and systemic adverse effects.

Conclusion

Despite some decline in antibody from 13 months of age, these data suggest that a majority of pre-school children maintain protective serotype-specific antibody concentrations following conjugate vaccination at 2, 4 and 12 months of age.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01095471

Association between population prevalence of smoking and incidence of meningococcal disease in Norway, Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands between 1975 and 2009: a population-based time series analysis

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the relationship between the prevalence of smoking in the population and incidence of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) among children under 5 years of age.

DESIGN

Retrospective, longitudinal, observational study. Poisson regression controlled for confounding factors.

SETTING

Norway, Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands between 1975 and 2009.

POPULATION

Total population of approximately 35 million people in these four countries.

DATA SOURCES

Data were collected from the Ministries of Health, National Statistics Bureaus and other relevant national institutes.

RESULTS

In Norway, there was a significant positive relationship between the annual prevalence of daily smokers among individuals aged 25-49 years and the incidence of IMD in children under 5 years of age, unadjusted (RR=1.04-1.06, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.07, p<0.001) and after adjustment for time of year (quarter), incidence of influenza-like illness and household crowding (RR=1.05-1.07, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.09, p<0.001). Depending on age group, the risk of IMD increased by 5.2-6.9% per 1% increase in smoking prevalence among individuals aged 25-49 years in adjusted analyses. Using limited datasets from the three other countries, unadjusted analysis showed positive associations between IMD in children related to older smokers in Sweden and the Netherlands and negative associations related to younger smokers in Sweden. However, there were no demonstrable associations between incidence of IMD and prevalence of smoking, after adjustment for the same confounding variables.

CONCLUSIONS

The reduced incidence of IMD in Norway between 1975 and 2009 may partly be explained by the reduced prevalence of smoking during this period. High-quality surveillance data are required to confirm this in other countries. Strong efforts to reduce smoking in the whole population including targeted campaigns to reduce smoking among adults may have a role to play in the prevention of IMD in children.

An outpatient, ambulant-design, controlled human infection model using escalating doses of Salmonella Typhi challenge delivered in sodium bicarbonate solution

Oral delivery of escalating-dose Salmonella Typhi (Quailes strain) using sodium bicarbonate buffer solution in an outpatient, ambulant-design human infection study demonstrates safety, requires a lower challenge inoculum than that used in historical studies, and offers a unique insight into host–pathogen interactions.

Background. Typhoid fever is a major global health problem, the control of which is hindered by lack of a suitable animal model in which to study Salmonella Typhi infection. Until 1974, a human challenge model advanced understanding of typhoid and was used in vaccine development. We set out to establish a new human challenge model and ascertain the S. Typhi (Quailes strain) inoculum required for an attack rate of 60%–75% in typhoid-naive volunteers when ingested with sodium bicarbonate solution.

Methods. Groups of healthy consenting adults ingested escalating dose levels of S. Typhi and were closely monitored in an outpatient setting for 2 weeks. Antibiotic treatment was initiated if typhoid diagnosis occurred (temperature ≥38°C sustained ≥12 hours or bacteremia) or at day 14 in those remaining untreated.

Results. Two dose levels (10³ or 10⁴ colony-forming units) were required to achieve the primary objective, resulting in attack rates of 55% (11/20) or 65% (13/20), respectively. Challenge was well tolerated; 4 of 40 participants fulfilled prespecified criteria for severe infection. Most diagnoses (87.5%) were confirmed by blood culture, and asymptomatic bacteremia and stool shedding of S. Typhi was also observed. Participants who developed typhoid infection demonstrated serological responses to flagellin and lipopolysaccharide antigens by day 14; however, no anti-Vi antibody responses were detected.

Conclusions. Human challenge with a small inoculum of virulent S. Typhi administered in bicarbonate solution can be performed safely using an ambulant-model design to advance understanding of host–pathogen interactions and immunity. This model should expedite development of diagnostics, vaccines, and therapeutics for typhoid control.

Corticosteroid injection for shoulder pain: single-blind randomized pilot trial in primary care

BACKGROUND

Shoulder pain is a very common presentation in primary care. Evidence of benefit for subacromial corticosteroid injection is inconclusive and confined largely to studies with short follow-up. We plan a large, definitive, primary-care-based trial to determine efficacy and safety in patients with rotator cuff tendinopathy, and conducted a pilot trial to explore feasibility.

METHODS

Six general practitioners (GPs) from Oxfordshire, UK underwent update training in assessing painful shoulders and injecting the subacromial space. Each then recruited patients aged 35 to 74 years from primary care complaining of shoulder pain lasting no more than 6 months. Eligible participants were randomized to receive either methylprednisolone acetate 40 mg with lidocaine 1% (total volume 1 ml), or lidocaine 1% alone (total volume 1 ml), injected into the subacromial space. The participants were blinded to treatment allocation. Feasibility outcomes were rates of recruitment, withdrawal, adherence to the protocol, completeness of follow-up, and success of patient masking. Clinical outcomes were the Oxford Shoulder Score (OSS) at baseline and at 4 and 12 weeks, and responses to three satisfaction questions at 2, 4 and 12 weeks. Outcome data were collected by postal questionnaires.

RESULTS

A total of 40 participants were randomized (80% of the target 50 participants) over 26 weeks giving an overall recruitment rate of 1.5 participants per week. Rates of follow-up were maintained to a high level for the full 12 weeks. Four participants requested a 'rescue' corticosteroid injection but no patients withdrew. The trial GPs gave high scores for their confidence that the patient had remained blinded to treatment allocation during the procedure. The OSS at 4 and 12 weeks and the responses to the satisfaction questions are reported.

CONCLUSIONS

It is feasible to recruit participants with shoulder pain in the primary care setting for a blinded, randomized trial of corticosteroid injection. Online randomization of participants from the practice is also feasible, and postal questionnaires provide an effective means of gathering outcome data in this area of study. The lessons learned from this pilot will usefully inform the design of a large, definitive efficacy trial in primary care.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Clinical Trials ISRCTN82357435.

Persistence of bactericidal antibodies following early infant vaccination with a serogroup B meningococcal vaccine and immunogenicity of a preschool booster dose

BACKGROUND

The multicomponent serogroup B meningococcal (4CMenB) vaccine was recently licensed for use in Europe. There are currently no data on the persistence of bactericidal antibodies induced by use of this vaccine in infants. Our objective was to evaluate serogroup B-specific bactericidal antibodies in children aged 40-44 months previously vaccinated at 2, 4, 6 and 12 months of age.

METHODS

Participants given 4 doses of 4CMenB as infants received a fifth dose of the vaccine at 40-44 months of age. Age-matched participants who were MenB vaccine-naive received 4CMenB and formed the control group. We evaluated human complement serum bactericidal activity (hSBA) titres at baseline and 1 month after each dose of 4CMenB.

RESULTS

Before a booster dose at enrolment, 41%-76% of 17 participants previously vaccinated with 4CMenB in infancy had hSBA titres of 4 or greater against 4 reference strains. Before vaccination in the control group (n = 40) these proportions were similar for strains 44/76-SL (63%) and M10713 (68%) but low for strains NZ98/254 (0%) and 5/99 (3%). A booster dose in the 4CMenB-primed participants generated greater increases in hSBA titres than in controls.

INTERPRETATION

As has been observed with other meningococcal vaccines, bactericidal antibodies waned after vaccination with 4CMenB administered according to an approved infant vaccination schedule of 2, 4, 6 and 12 months of age, but there was an anamnestic response to a booster dose at 40-44 months of age. If 4CMenB were introduced into routine vaccination schedules, assessment of the need for a booster dose would require data on the impact of these declining titres on vaccine effectiveness. ClinicalTrials.gov, no. NCT01027351.

The effects of using cognitive behavioural therapy to improve sleep for patients with delusions and hallucinations (the BEST study): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Patients with psychosis frequently report difficulties getting or staying asleep (insomnia). Dissatisfaction with sleep is high. Insomnia should be treated in this group, but typically it is not even assessed. Importantly, recent evidence indicates that insomnia triggers and exacerbates delusions and hallucinations. The clinical implication is that if the insomnia is treated then the psychotic symptoms will significantly lessen. In a case series with 15 patients with persecutory delusions resistant to previous treatment this is exactly what we found: cognitive behavioural therapy for insomnia (CBT-I) led to large reductions in both the insomnia and delusions. The clear next step is a pilot randomized controlled test. The clinical aim is to test whether CBT-I can reduce both insomnia and psychotic symptoms. The trial will inform decisions for a definitive large-scale evaluation.

METHODS/DESIGN

We will carry out a randomized controlled trial (the Better Sleep Trial, or the BEST study) with 60 patients with distressing delusions or hallucinations in the context of a schizophrenia spectrum diagnosis. Half of the participants will be randomized to receive CBT-I, in addition to their standard treatment, for up to eight sessions over 12 weeks. The other half will continue with treatment as usual. Blind assessments will take place at 0 weeks, 12 weeks (post-treatment) and 24 weeks (follow-up). The primary outcome hypotheses are that CBT-I added to treatment as usual will improve sleep, delusions and hallucinations compared with only treatment as usual. All main analyses will be carried out at the end of the last follow-up assessments and will be based on the intention-to-treat principle. The trial is funded by the NHS National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Research for Patient Benefit Programme. Data collection will be complete by the end of 2014.

DISCUSSION

This will be the first controlled test of CBT-I for patients with delusions and hallucinations. It will provide significant evidence for an easily administered intervention that is likely to prove very popular with patients experiencing the difficult-to-treat problems of delusions and hallucinations.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN 33695128.

UK vaccination schedule: persistence of immunity to hepatitis B in children vaccinated after perinatal exposure

OBJECTIVE

To assess persistence of immunity to hepatitis B (HBV) in primary school children vaccinated following perinatal exposure.

DESIGN

Serological survey.

SETTING

Five UK sites (Berkshire East, Birmingham, Buckinghamshire, Milton Keynes and Oxfordshire).

PARTICIPANTS

Children from 3 years 4 months to 10 years of age (mean age 6.2 years), vaccinated against HBV from birth following perinatal exposure.

INTERVENTIONS

A single booster dose of the paediatric formulation of a recombinant HBV vaccine.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Titres of antibody against hepatitis B Surface Antigen (anti-HBs) measured immediately before and 21-35 days after the HBV vaccine booster.

RESULTS

Prebooster anti-HBs titres were >10 mIU/ml in 84.6% of children (n=26; 95% CI 65.1 to 95.6%). All children (n=25, 95% CI 86.3 to 100%) had titres >100 mIU/ml after the booster.

CONCLUSIONS

This study of antibody persistence among UK children born to hepatitis B infected women, immunised with a 3-dose infant schedule with a toddler booster suggests sustained immunity through early childhood. These data should prompt further studies to address the need for a preschool booster.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Eudract Number 2008-004785-98.

The effects of Provent on moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnoea during continuous positive airway pressure therapy withdrawal: a randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to test the effectiveness of Provent, an expiratory nasal resistance valve, to prevent the recurrence of OSA following CPAP withdrawal.

DESIGN

Randomised, partially blinded, parallel, placebo-controlled trial.

SETTING

Outpatient sleep clinics in the UK (Oxford) and Switzerland (Zurich).

PARTICIPANTS

67 patients with OSA receiving CPAP were randomised to one of three groups for 2 weeks: continuing CPAP, Provent or placebo Provent.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcomes included for Provent versus placebo Provent, OSA severity (oxygen desaturation index (ODI), apnoea-hypopnoea index (AHI)) and Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) score. Secondary outcomes for Provent versus placebo Provent included ODI from ambulatory pulse oximetry and blood pressure (BP). For CPAP versus Provent, or CPAP versus placebo Provent, secondary outcomes included ODI/AHI, ESS and BP.

RESULTS

63 patients were included in the per protocol analysis. OSA recurred in the Provent (ODI 35.8, SD 17.4) and placebo Provent (ODI 28.2, SD 18.3) groups, and there was no significant difference in ODI, AHI and ESS between Provent and placebo Provent at 2 weeks (mean difference ODI -1.0, 95% CI -10.0 to +12.0, p=0.85; AHI +3.2, 95% CI -7.7 to +14.1, p=0.52; and ESS -1.4, 95% CI -4.1 to +1.4, p=0.33). ODI from ambulatory pulse-oximetry and BP at 2 weeks were not different in the Provent versus placebo Provent groups. ODI, AHI and BP, but not ESS, were significantly higher in the Provent and placebo Provent groups compared with CPAP.

CONCLUSIONS

Provent cannot be recommended as an alternative short-term therapy for patients with moderate to severe OSA already on CPAP.

TRIALREGNO

NCT01332175.

A systematic review of the effect of red blood cell transfusion on mortality: evidence from large-scale observational studies published between 2006 and 2010

OBJECTIVE

To carry out a systematic review of recently published large-scale observational studies assessing the effects of red blood cell transfusion (RBCT) on mortality, with particular emphasis on the statistical methods used to adjust for confounding. Given the limited number of randomised trials of the efficacy of RBCT, clinicians often use evidence from observational studies. However, confounding factors, for example, individuals receiving blood generally being sicker than those who do not, make their interpretation challenging.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

INFORMATION SOURCES

We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE for studies published from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2010.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR INCLUDED STUDIES

We included prospective cohort, case-control studies or retrospective analyses of databases or disease registers where the effect of risk factors for mortality or survival was examined. Studies must have included more than 1000 participants receiving RBCT for any cause. We assessed the effects of RBCT versus no RBCT and different volumes and age of RBCT.

RESULTS

-32 studies were included in the review; 23 assessed the effects of RBCT versus no RBCT; 5 assessed different volumes and 4 older versus newer RBCT. There was a considerable variability in the patient populations, study designs and level of statistical adjustment. Overall, most studies showed a higher rate of mortality when comparing patients who received RBCT with those who did not, even when these rates were adjusted for confounding; the majority of these increases were statistically significant. The same pattern was observed in studies where protection from bias was likely to be greater, such as prospective studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent observational studies do show a consistently adverse effect of RBCT on mortality. Whether this is a true effect remains uncertain as it is possible that even the best conducted adjustments cannot completely eliminate the impact of confounding.

B cell memory to a serogroup C meningococcal conjugate vaccine in childhood and response to booster: little association with serum IgG antibody

The maintenance of adequate serum Ab levels following immunization has been identified as the most important mechanism for individual long-term protection against rapidly invading encapsulated bacteria. The mechanisms for maintaining adequate serum Ab levels and the relationship between Ag-specific memory B cells and Ab at steady state are poorly understood. We measured the frequency of circulating serogroup C meningococcal (MenC)-specific memory B cells in 250 healthy 6- to 12-y-old children 6 y following MenC conjugate vaccine priming, before a booster of a combined Haemophilus influenzae type b-MenC conjugate vaccine and then 1 wk, 1 mo, and 1 y after the booster. We investigated the relationship between circulating MenC-specific memory B cell frequencies and Ab at baseline and following the booster vaccine. We found very low frequencies of circulating MenC-specific memory B cells at steady state in primary school-aged children and little association with MenC IgG Ab levels. Following vaccination, there were robust memory B cell booster responses that, unlike Ab levels, were not dependent on age at priming with MenC. Measurement of B cell memory in peripheral blood does not predict steady state Ab levels nor the capacity to respond to a booster dose of MenC Ag.

ZnO nanomaterials based surface acoustic wave ethanol gas sensor

ZnO nanomaterials based surface acoustic wave (SAW) gas sensor has been investigated in ethanol environment at room temperature. The ZnO nanomaterials have been prepared through thermal evaporation of high-purity zinc powder. The as-prepared ZnO nanomaterials have been characterized with scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and X-ray Diffraction (XRD) techniques. The results indicate that the obtained ZnO nanomaterials, including many types of nanostructures such as nanobelts, nanorods, nanowires as well as nanosheets, are wurtzite with hexagonal structure and well-crystallized. The SAW sensor coated with the nanostructured ZnO materials has been tested in ethanol gas of various concentrations at room temperature. A network analyzer is used to monitor the change of the insertion loss of the SAW sensor when exposed to ethanol gas. The insertion loss of the SAW sensor varies significantly with the change of ethanol concentration. The experimental results manifest that the ZnO nanomaterials based SAW ethanol gas sensor exhibits excellent sensitivity and good short-term reproducibility at room temperature.

Pneumococcal conjugate and plain polysaccharide vaccines have divergent effects on antigen-specific B cells

BACKGROUND

A 23-valent unconjugated pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (23vP), routinely administered at the age of 65, has limited effectiveness, and revaccination induces attenuated antibody responses. It is not known whether pneumococcal polysaccharide-protein conjugated vaccines (PCV), although highly effective in infants, offer any immunological advantages over 23vP in adults.

METHODS

We immunized adults with schedules combining both PCV and 23vP and investigated B-cell responses to establish whether PCV7 (a 7-valent PCV) induced T-dependent responses in adults, to assess the role of memory B cells in 23vP-induced antibody hyporesponsiveness, and to identify the B-cell subtypes involved.

RESULTS

A single dose of PCV7 induced significant increases in serotype-specific memory B-cell populations in peripheral blood indicating a T-dependent response. Conversely, immunization with 23vP resulted in a decrease in memory B-cell frequency. Furthermore, memory B-cell responses to subsequent immunization with PCV7, when given after 23vP, were attenuated. Notably, B1b cells, a subset important in protecting mice against pneumococci, were also depleted following immunization with 23vP in humans.

CONCLUSIONS

This study indicates that PCV7 may have an immunological advantage over 23vP in adults and that 23vP-induced depletion of memory and B1b-cell subsets may provide a basis for antibody hyporesponsiveness and the limited effectiveness of 23vP. Clinical Trials Registration. ISRCTN: 78768849.

Persistence of the immune response at 5 years of age following infant immunisation with investigational quadrivalent MenACWY conjugate vaccine formulations

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Serogroup A, C, W-135 and Y meningococcal (MenACWY) conjugate vaccines are recommended for routine adolescent immunisation in the United States and Canada. We evaluated the persistence of bactericidal antibodies through early childhood, following infant immunisation with varying schedules of MenACWY-CRM(197) vaccine.

METHODS

UK and Canadian infants were immunised with 2-3 doses of MenACWY-CRM(197) or 2 doses of serogroup C meningococcal (MenC) conjugate vaccine, and either MenACWY-CRM(197), 1/5 dose of MenACWY polysaccharide vaccine or no booster at 12 months. Control groups recruited at 60 months had received country-specific infant doses of MenC conjugate vaccine. hSBA titres were measured in participants at 40 and 60 months of age.

RESULTS

382 children were enrolled in 12 groups (22-40 per group). By age 60 months, 3-11% of children primed and boosted with MenACWY-CRM(197) had hSBA titres≥1:8 against serogroup A, 14-45% against serogroup C, 57-85% against serogroup W-135 and 42-71% against serogroup Y. Children primed with MenC and boosted with MenACWY-CRM(197) had similar results, except for serogroup C (59%). In age-matched controls administered MenC vaccine at 2, 3, and 4 months (UK), 2 and 12 months or 12 months only (Canada), percentages with hSBA titres≥1:8 were 0-3%, 29-53%, 34-36% and 10-29% against serogroups A, C, W-135 and Y respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Serogroup-specific bactericidal antibody wane following infant immunisation with MenACWY-CRM(197), most markedly against serogroup A. Best persistence against serogroup C is observed with MenC conjugate vaccine priming and MenACWY-CRM(197) at 12 months, compared to schedules using only MenACWY-CRM(197), with the potential for providing broader protection compared to monovalent MenC vaccines alone.

A role for solvents in the toxicity of agricultural organophosphorus pesticides

Organophosphorus (OP) insecticide self-poisoning is responsible for about one-quarter of global suicides. Treatment focuses on the fact that OP compounds inhibit acetylcholinesterase (AChE); however, AChE-reactivating drugs do not benefit poisoned humans. We therefore studied the role of solvent coformulants in OP toxicity in a novel minipig model of agricultural OP poisoning. Gottingen minipigs were orally poisoned with clinically relevant doses of agricultural emulsifiable concentrate (EC) dimethoate, dimethoate active ingredient (AI) alone, or solvents. Cardiorespiratory physiology and neuromuscular (NMJ) function, blood AChE activity, and arterial lactate concentration were monitored for 12h to assess poisoning severity. Poisoning with agricultural dimethoate EC40, but not saline, caused respiratory arrest within 30 min, severe distributive shock and NMJ dysfunction, that was similar to human poisoning. Mean arterial lactate rose to 15.6 [SD 2.8] mM in poisoned pigs compared to 1.4 [0.4] in controls. Moderate toxicity resulted from poisoning with dimethoate AI alone, or the major solvent cyclohexanone. Combining dimethoate with cyclohexanone reproduced severe poisoning characteristic of agricultural dimethoate EC poisoning. A formulation without cyclohexanone showed less mammalian toxicity. These results indicate that solvents play a crucial role in dimethoate toxicity. Regulatory assessment of pesticide toxicity should include solvents as well as the AIs which currently dominate the assessment. Reformulation of OP insecticides to ensure that the agricultural product has lower mammalian toxicity could result in fewer deaths after suicidal ingestion and rapidly reduce global suicide rates.

Memantine for dementia in adults older than 40 years with Down's syndrome (MEADOWS): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Prevalence of Alzheimer's disease in people with Down's syndrome is very high, and many such individuals who are older than 40 years have pathological changes characteristic of Alzheimer's disease. Evidence to support treatment with Alzheimer's drugs is inadequate, although memantine is beneficial in transgenic mice. We aimed to assess safety and efficacy of memantine on cognition and function in individuals with Down's syndrome.

METHODS

In our prospective randomised double-blind trial, we enrolled adults (>40 years) with karyotypic or clinically diagnosed Down's syndrome, with and without dementia, at four learning disability centres in the UK and Norway. We randomly allocated participants (1:1) to receive memantine or placebo for 52 weeks by use of a computer-generated sequence and a minimisation algorithm to ensure balanced allocation for five prognostic factors (sex, dementia, age group, total Down's syndrome attention, memory, and executive function scales [DAMES] score, and centre). The primary outcome was change in cognition and function, measured with DAMES scores and the adaptive behaviour scale (ABS) parts I and II. We analysed differences in DAMES and ABS scores between groups with analyses of covariance or quantile regression in all patients who completed the 52 week assessment and had available follow-up data. This study is registered, number ISRCTN47562898.

FINDINGS

We randomly allocated 88 patients to receive memantine (72 [82%] had DAMES data and 75 [85%] had ABS data at 52 weeks) and 85 to receive placebo (74 [87%] and 73 [86%]). Both groups declined in cognition and function but rates did not differ between groups for any outcomes. After adjustment for baseline score, there were non-significant differences between groups of -4·1 (95% CI -13·1 to 4·8) in DAMES scores, -8·5 (-20·1 to 3·1) in ABS I scores, and 2·0 (-7·2 to 11·3) in ABS II scores, all in favour of controls. 10 (11%) of 88 participants in the memantine group and six (7%) of 85 controls had serious adverse events (p=0·33). Five participants in the memantine group and four controls died from serious adverse events (p=0·77).

INTERPRETATION

There is a striking absence of evidence about pharmacological treatment of cognitive impairment and dementia in people older than 40 years with Down's syndrome. Despite promising indications, memantine is not an effective treatment. Therapies that are effective for Alzheimer's disease are not necessarily effective in this group of patients.

FUNDING

Lundbeck.

Immunogenicity and tolerability of recombinant serogroup B meningococcal vaccine administered with or without routine infant vaccinations according to different immunization schedules: a randomized controlled trial

CONTEXT

In the absence of an effective vaccine, serogroup B Neisseria meningitidis (MenB) remains a major cause of invasive disease in early childhood in developed countries.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the immunogenicity and reactogenicity of a multicomponent MenB vaccine (4CMenB) and routine infant vaccines when given either concomitantly or separately.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Phase 2b, multicenter, open-label, parallel-group, randomized controlled study of 1885 infants enrolled at age 2 months from August 2008 to July 2010 in Europe.

INTERVENTION

Participants were randomized 2:2:1:1 to receive (1) 4CMenB at 2, 4, and 6 months with routine vaccines (7-valent pneumococcal and combined diphtheria, tetanus, acellular pertussis, inactivated polio, hepatitis B, Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccines); (2) 4CMenB at 2, 4, and 6 months and routine vaccines at 3, 5, and 7 months; (3) 4CMenB with routine vaccines at 2, 3, and 4 months; or (4) routine vaccines alone at 2, 3, and 4 months.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Percentage of participants with human complement serum bactericidal activity (hSBA) titer of 1:5 or greater against 3 MenB strains specific for vaccine antigens (NZ98/254, 44/76-SL, and 5/99).

RESULTS

After three 4CMenB vaccinations, 99% or more of infants developed hSBA titers of 1:5 or greater against strains 44/76-SL and 5/99. For NZ98/254, this proportion was 79% (95% CI, 75.2%-82.4%) for vaccination at 2, 4, and 6 months with routine vaccines, 86.1% (95% CI, 82.9%-89.0%) for vaccination at 2, 4, and 6 months without routine vaccines, and 81.7% (95% CI, 76.6%-86.2%) for vaccination at 2, 3, and 4 months with routine vaccines. Responses to routine vaccines given with 4CMenB were noninferior to routine vaccines alone for all antigens, except for the responses to pertactin and serotype 6B pneumococcal polysaccharide. Fever was seen following 26% (158/602) to 41% (247/607) of 4CMenB doses when administered alone, compared with 23% (69/304) to 36% (109/306) after routine vaccines given alone and 51% (306/605) to 61% (380/624) after 4CMenB and routine vaccines administered together.

CONCLUSION

A 4CMenB vaccine is immunogenic against reference strains when administered with routine vaccines at 2, 4, and 6 or at 2, 3, and 4 months of age, producing minimal interference with the response to routine infant vaccinations.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00721396.

The dependence of extracted current on discharge gas pressure in neutral beam ion sources on HL-2A tokamak

The discharge gas pressure is a key factor to influence the extracted current of ion source. In this paper, the dependence of extracted current on discharge gas pressure was investigated in detail at different arc discharge currents. The discharge gas pressure with a very broad range (0.1 Pa-2.7 Pa) was scanned for the first time. It is turned out that, with the increasing of discharge gas pressure, the extracted current increases and the arc voltage decreases at different arc currents; however, when the discharge gas pressure exceeds a certain value, the extracted current decreases. For the same discharge gas pressure, the higher the arc current, the higher the arc voltage and the extracted current are. The arc efficiency was also calculated, and its dependence on gas pressure was almost the same with the dependence of extracted current on gas pressure, but at the same discharge gas pressure, the lower the arc current, the higher the arc efficiency is and the lower the extracted current is.

Reporting of participant flow diagrams in published reports of randomized trials

Background

Reporting of the flow of participants through each stage of a randomized trial is essential to assess the generalisability and validity of its results. We assessed the type and completeness of information reported in CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) flow diagrams published in current reports of randomized trials.

Methods

A cross sectional review of all primary reports of randomized trials which included a CONSORT flow diagram indexed in PubMed core clinical journals (2009). We assessed the proportion of parallel group trial publications reporting specific items recommended by CONSORT for inclusion in a flow diagram.

Results

Of 469 primary reports of randomized trials, 263 (56%) included a CONSORT flow diagram of which 89% (237/263) were published in a CONSORT endorsing journal. Reports published in CONSORT endorsing journals were more likely to include a flow diagram (62%; 237/380 versus 29%; 26/89). Ninety percent (236/263) of reports which included a flow diagram had a parallel group design, of which 49% (116/236) evaluated drug interventions, 58% (137/236) were multicentre, and 79% (187/236) compared two study groups, with a median sample size of 213 participants. Eighty-one percent (191/236) reported the overall number of participants assessed for eligibility, 71% (168/236) the number excluded prior to randomization and 98% (231/236) the overall number randomized. Reasons for exclusion prior to randomization were more poorly reported. Ninety-four percent (223/236) reported the number of participants allocated to each arm of the trial. However, only 40% (95/236) reported the number who actually received the allocated intervention, 67% (158/236) the number lost to follow up in each arm of the trial, 61% (145/236) whether participants discontinued the intervention during the trial and 54% (128/236) the number included in the main analysis.

Conclusions

Over half of published reports of randomized trials included a diagram showing the flow of participants through the trial. However, information was often missing from published flow diagrams, even in articles published in CONSORT endorsing journals. If important information is not reported it can be difficult and sometimes impossible to know if the conclusions of that trial are justified by the data presented.

Developing risk prediction models for type 2 diabetes: a systematic review of methodology and reporting

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organisation estimates that by 2030 there will be approximately 350 million people with type 2 diabetes. Associated with renal complications, heart disease, stroke and peripheral vascular disease, early identification of patients with undiagnosed type 2 diabetes or those at an increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes is an important challenge. We sought to systematically review and critically assess the conduct and reporting of methods used to develop risk prediction models for predicting the risk of having undiagnosed (prevalent) or future risk of developing (incident) type 2 diabetes in adults.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search of PubMed and EMBASE databases to identify studies published before May 2011 that describe the development of models combining two or more variables to predict the risk of prevalent or incident type 2 diabetes. We extracted key information that describes aspects of developing a prediction model including study design, sample size and number of events, outcome definition, risk predictor selection and coding, missing data, model-building strategies and aspects of performance.

RESULTS

Thirty-nine studies comprising 43 risk prediction models were included. Seventeen studies (44%) reported the development of models to predict incident type 2 diabetes, whilst 15 studies (38%) described the derivation of models to predict prevalent type 2 diabetes. In nine studies (23%), the number of events per variable was less than ten, whilst in fourteen studies there was insufficient information reported for this measure to be calculated. The number of candidate risk predictors ranged from four to sixty-four, and in seven studies it was unclear how many risk predictors were considered. A method, not recommended to select risk predictors for inclusion in the multivariate model, using statistical significance from univariate screening was carried out in eight studies (21%), whilst the selection procedure was unclear in ten studies (26%). Twenty-one risk prediction models (49%) were developed by categorising all continuous risk predictors. The treatment and handling of missing data were not reported in 16 studies (41%).

CONCLUSIONS

We found widespread use of poor methods that could jeopardise model development, including univariate pre-screening of variables, categorisation of continuous risk predictors and poor handling of missing data. The use of poor methods affects the reliability of the prediction model and ultimately compromises the accuracy of the probability estimates of having undiagnosed type 2 diabetes or the predicted risk of developing type 2 diabetes. In addition, many studies were characterised by a generally poor level of reporting, with many key details to objectively judge the usefulness of the models often omitted.

Randomized trial to compare bilateral vs. single internal mammary coronary artery bypass grafting: 1-year results of the Arterial Revascularisation Trial (ART)

AIMS

Observational data suggest that the use of bilateral internal mammary arteries (BIMA) during coronary artery bypass graft surgery provides superior revascularization to a single internal mammary artery (SIMA), but concerns about safety have prevented the widespread use of BIMA. The Arterial Revascularisation Trial (ART) is a randomized trial of BIMA vs. SIMA, with a primary outcome of survival at 10 years. This paper reports mortality, morbidity, and resource use data at 1 year.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Coronary artery bypass graft patients were enrolled in 28 hospitals in seven countries. Three thousand one hundred and two patients were randomly assigned to SIMA (n = 1554) or BIMA (n = 1548). The mean number of grafts was 3 for both groups. Forty per cent of the SIMA procedures and 42% of the BIMA were performed off-pump. Mortality at 30 days was 18 of 1548 (1.2%) for SIMA and 19 of 1537 (1.2%) for BIMA, and at 1 year was 36 of 1540 (2.3%) and 38 of 1529 (2.5%), respectively. The rates of stroke, myocardial infarction, and repeat revascularization were all ≤2% at 1 year and similar between the two groups. Sternal wound reconstruction was required in 0.6 and 1.9% of the SIMA and BIMA groups, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Data from ART demonstrate similar clinical outcomes for SIMA and BIMA at 1 year but BIMA grafts are associated with a small absolute increase (1.3%) in the need for sternal wound reconstruction. The results suggest that the use of BIMA grafts is feasible on a routine basis. The 10-year results of the ART will confirm whether BIMA grafting results in lower mortality and the need for repeat intervention.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Controlled-trials.com (ISRCTN46552265).

Reporting on covariate adjustment in randomised controlled trials before and after revision of the 2001 CONSORT statement: a literature review

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the use and reporting of adjusted analysis in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and compare the quality of reporting before and after the revision of the CONSORT Statement in 2001.

DESIGN

Comparison of two cross sectional samples of published articles.

DATA SOURCES

Journal articles indexed on PubMed in December 2000 and December 2006.

STUDY SELECTION

Parallel group RCTs with a full publication carried out in humans and published in English

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Proportion of articles reported adjusted analysis; use of adjusted analysis; the reason for adjustment; the method of adjustment and the reporting of adjusted analysis results in the main text and abstract.

RESULTS

In both cohorts, 25% of studies reported adjusted analysis (84/355 in 2000 vs 113/422 in 2006). Compared with articles reporting only unadjusted analyses, articles that reported adjusted analyses were more likely to specify primary outcomes, involve multiple centers, perform stratified randomization, be published in general medical journals, and recruit larger sample sizes. In both years a minority of articles explained why and how covariates were selected for adjustment (20% to 30%). Almost all articles specified the statistical methods used for adjustment (99% in 2000 vs 100% in 2006) but only 5% and 10%, respectively, reported both adjusted and unadjusted results as recommended in the CONSORT guidelines.

CONCLUSION

There was no evidence of change in the reporting of adjusted analysis results five years after the revision of the CONSORT Statement and only a few articles adhered fully to the CONSORT recommendations.

Note: A sampling method for quantum random bit generation

In this note, we present a new sampling method for quantum random bit generation. The new method requires only one single-photon detector and does not measure the time slots of emitted photons. A binary random bit sequence obtained is independent on the time slot of the pulses and the precision of the measurement instrument. The effect of the exclusive-or operation for eliminating the bias in the raw sequences is also discussed.