Pretreatment nomogram for predicting freedom from recurrence after permanent prostate brachytherapy in prostate cancer

Prognostic value of central gland volume on MRI for biochemical recurrence after prostate radiotherapy

PURPOSE

This study evaluates pretreatment prostate magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) metrics and clinical characteristics in predicting biochemical recurrence (BCR) after prostate radiotherapy (RT).

METHODS

In this retrospective single institution study, we identified men in our prostate cancer database who underwent MRI within 6 months prior to completing definitive RT from May 2011 to February 2023. Central gland volume and peripheral zone volume were measured by a radiologist using manual segmentation, along with Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) score. The primary objective was to determine the association of central gland volume with biochemical recurrence per Phoenix criteria. Multivariable and inverse probability weighted (IPW) Cox proportional hazards regression models were constructed.

RESULTS

A total of 373 men were included, with a median follow-up of 28 months. Thirteen (3.5%) were low risk, 97 (26%) favorable intermediate risk, 201 (53.9%) unfavorable intermediate risk, and 62 (16.6%) high risk. Fifty-four (14.5%) patients received conventionally fractionated RT, 105 (28.2%) moderately hypofractionated RT, 121 (32.4%) high-dose rate brachytherapy, and 93 (24.9%) stereotactic body RT. The 3- and 5-year rates of BCR were 7.8% and 18.3%, respectively. Higher central gland volume (per 5 cc) was associated with decreased risk of BCR (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.50-0.94, p = 0.02) on the multivariable Cox model and IPW model (HR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.65-0.87, p < 0.001). No significant association was seen with peripheral zone volume, PI-RADS score, or RT modality.

CONCLUSION

Increased central gland volume on pretreatment prostate MRI is independently associated with a lower risk of biochemical recurrence after definitive radiation for prostate cancer. Central gland volume may improve patient selection and oncologic risk stratification prior to offering RT.

Prostate cancer nomograms and their application in Asian men: a review

Nomograms help to predict outcomes in individual patients rather than whole populations and are an important part of evaluation and treatment decision making. Various nomograms have been developed in malignancies to predict and prognosticate clinical outcomes such as severity of disease, overall survival, and recurrence-free survival. In prostate cancer, nomograms were developed for determining need for biopsy, disease course, need for adjuvant therapy, and outcomes. Most of these predictive nomograms were based on Caucasian populations. Prostate cancer is significantly affected by race, and Asian men have a significantly different racial and genetic susceptibility compared to Caucasians, raising the concern in generalizability of these nomograms. We reviewed the existing literature for nomograms in prostate cancer and their application in Asian men. There are very few studies that have evaluated the applicability and validity of the existing nomograms in these men. Most have found significant differences in the performance in this population. Thus, more studies evaluating the existing nomograms in Asian men or suggesting modifications for this population are required.

Detection of fusion gene transcripts in the blood samples of prostate cancer patients

Prostate cancer remains one of the most lethal cancers for men in the United States. The study aims to detect fusion transcripts in the blood samples of prostate cancer patients. We analyzed nine fusion transcripts including MAN2A1-FER, SLC45A2-AMACR, TRMT11-GRIK2, CCNH-C5orf30, mTOR-TP53BP1, KDM4-AC011523.2, TMEM135-CCDC67, LRRC59-FLJ60017 and Pten-NOLC1147 in the blood samples from 147 prostate cancer patients and 14 healthy individuals, using Taqman RT-PCR and Sanger's sequencing. Similar analyses were also performed on 25 matched prostate cancer samples for matched-sample evaluation. Eighty-two percent blood samples from the prostate cancer patients were positive for MAN2A1-FER transcript, while 41.5% and 38.8% blood samples from the prostate cancer patients were positive for SLC45A2-AMACR and Pten-NOLC1, respectively. CCNH-c5orf30 and mTOR-TP53BP1 had low detection rates, positive in only 5.4% and 4% of the blood samples from the prostate cancer patients. Only 2 blood samples were positive for KDM4B-AC011523.2 transcript. Overall, 89.8% patients were positive for at least one fusion transcript in their blood samples. The statistical analysis showed varied sensitivity of fusion transcript detection in the blood based on the types of fusions. In contrast, the blood samples from all healthy individuals were negative for the fusion transcripts. Detection of fusion transcripts in the blood samples of the prostate cancer patients may be a fast and cost-effective way to detect prostate cancer.

Whole-Body Integrated [68Ga]PSMA-11-PET/MR Imaging in Patients with Recurrent Prostate Cancer: Comparison with Whole-Body PET/CT as the Standard of Reference

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the detection rate of [⁶⁸Ga]prostate-specific membrane antigen ([⁶⁸Ga]PSMA-11) positron emission tomography (PET)/magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and to compare it with [⁶⁸Ga]PSMA-11 PET/X-ray computed tomography (CT) in patients with recurrent prostate cancer (PC) after radical prostatectomy.

PROCEDURES

A total of 93 patients with biochemically recurrent prostate cancer underwent [⁶⁸Ga]PSMA-11 PET/CT and subsequently a whole-body integrated PET/MRI examination. Board certified nuclear medicine physicians and radiologists evaluated PET/CT and PET/MRI datasets regarding identification of tumor lesions ((i) lymph nodes, (ii) bone lesions, (iii) local recurrence, and (iv) parenchymal lesions) based on maximum [⁶⁸Ga]PSMA-11 uptake as well as morphological changes. Quality of PET images for both PET/CT and PET/MRI were rated using a 5-point scoring system by evaluating lesion homogeneity, contrast, contour, and delineation. Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were used to determine statistical differences.

RESULTS

PC relapse was detected in 62/93 patients. PET/MRI detected 148 out of 150 lesions described in PET/CT. In addition, PET/MRI detected 11 lesions not detected in PET/CT (5 lymph nodes, 6 local recurrences). The exact McNemar statistical test (one-sided) showed significant difference between PET/CT and PET/MRI for diagnosis of local recurrence (p value = 0.031). Diagnostic confidence for (iii) was higher in PET/MRI compared with PET/CT (PET/CT = 1.1; PET/MRI = 4.9). Diagnostic confidence for (i) (PET/CT = 4.9; PET/MRI = 4.6), (ii) (PET/CT = 4.9; PET/MRI = 4.6), and (iv) (PET/CT = 4.6; PET/MRI = 4.8) was equivalent between PET/MRI and PET/CT.

CONCLUSIONS

Integrated [⁶⁸Ga]PSMA-11 PET/MRI provides a similarly high diagnostic performance for localization of recurrent PC as PET/CT. For the detection of local recurrences [⁶⁸Ga]PSMA-11 PET/MRI is superior compared with [⁶⁸Ga]PSMA-11 PET/CT.

The one hundred most cited publications in prostate brachytherapy

PURPOSE

The aim of this study is to identify the leaders in research on prostate brachytherapy through a bibliometric analysis of the top 100 most cited publications in the field.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

A broad search was performed with the term "prostate brachytherapy" using the Web of Science database to generate wide-ranging results that were reviewed by reading the abstracts and, if necessary, the articles to select the top 100 most cited publications.

RESULTS

The median of the total citation count was 187 (range 132-1464). The median citation per year index (citations/year since publication) was 13.5 (range 6.3-379.0). In all publications, the first author was also the corresponding author. The top publishing countries of the first author included the United States (n = 78), Canada (n = 6), the UK (n = 5), and Germany (n = 4). The journal with the most publications was the International Journal of Radiation Oncology Biology Physics (n = 38). There were 27 more publications on low-dose-rate (LDR) than on high-dose-rate (HDR) (43 vs 16) among the top 100. HDR publications had only one first author that had three articles in comparison to LDR publications, which had four first authors, each with three articles on LDR. The United States was the leading country in 43.8% of HDR publications (n = 7) and 88.4% of LDR publications (n = 38).

CONCLUSIONS

Our bibliometric analysis of the top 100 most cited publications clearly demonstrates the North American dominance in the publications of prostate brachytherapy, especially in LDR. However, European first authors were more frequent in HDR publications.

Prostate Cancer, Version 2.2019, NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology

The NCCN Guidelines for Prostate Cancer include recommendations regarding diagnosis, risk stratification and workup, treatment options for localized disease, and management of recurrent and advanced disease for clinicians who treat patients with prostate cancer. The portions of the guidelines included herein focus on the roles of germline and somatic genetic testing, risk stratification with nomograms and tumor multigene molecular testing, androgen deprivation therapy, secondary hormonal therapy, chemotherapy, and immunotherapy in patients with prostate cancer.

Detecting prostate cancer using deep learning convolution neural network with transfer learning approach

Prostate Cancer in men has become one of the most diagnosed cancer and also one of the leading causes of death in United States of America. Radiologists cannot detect prostate cancer properly because of complexity in masses. In recent past, many prostate cancer detection techniques were developed but these could not diagnose cancer efficiently. In this research work, robust deep learning convolutional neural network (CNN) is employed, using transfer learning approach. Results are compared with various machine learning strategies (Decision Tree, SVM different kernels, Bayes). Cancer MRI database are used to train GoogleNet model and to train Machine Learning classifiers, various features such as Morphological, Entropy based, Texture, SIFT (Scale Invariant Feature Transform), and Elliptic Fourier Descriptors are extracted. For the purpose of performance evaluation, various performance measures such as specificity, sensitivity, Positive predictive value, negative predictive value, false positive rate and receive operating curve are calculated. The maximum performance was found with CNN model (GoogleNet), using Transfer learning approach. We have obtained reasonably good results with various Machine Learning Classifiers such as Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine RBF kernel and Bayes, however outstanding results were obtained by using deep learning technique.

Prostate brachytherapy procedural training: incorporation of related procedures in resident training and competency assessment

Purpose

Inadequate procedural training is of increasing concern in resident training, especially in prostate brachytherapy (PB). Transperineal rectal spacer placement (TRSP) requires many of the same proficiencies as PB. This work describes the assessment of teaching techniques focusing on developing critical competencies for PB using related clinical procedures (TRSP).

Material and methods

For PB and TRSP, key competencies were identified: 9 for PB and 7 for TRSP; 4 are shared between PB and TRSP. "Comfort level" with these procedures was assessed prior to and following participation in TRSP.

Results

8 of 12 trainees at our institution participated in TRSP procedures. 2 of these trainees had prior experience with PB or related procedures and were excluded. Trainees self-reported "comfort levels" between 0 and 3 for four competency domains. Initial median comfort (MC) level for competency domains relevant to PB included: patient positioning (median 1, range 0-2), transrectal ultrasound imaging (median 1, range 0-1), fiducial placement (median 1, range 0-1), and hydrodissection (median 0, range 0-1). Median number of TRSP procedures performed by assessed trainees during the analysis period was 4 (range 1-6). Following TRSP procedure training, MC level increased: 2 points for patient positioning (median 3, range 1-3; p < 0.01), 1.5 points for transrectal ultrasound imaging (median 2.5, range 1.3, p < 0.001); 1 point for fiducial placement (median score 2, range 1-3; p < 0.001); and 1.5 points for hydrodissection (median score 2, range 1-3; p < 0.001).

Conclusions

Increasing trainee involvement in related procedures to develop core competencies may help facilitate increased comfort with common skills critical to the independent performance of PB.

Moving Beyond Gleason Scoring

Context.—

The combination of grading and staging is the basis of current standard of care for prediction for most cancers. D. F. Gleason created the current prostate cancer (PCa) grading system. This system has been modified several times. Molecular data have been added. Currently, all grading systems are cancer-cell based.

Objective.—

To review the literature available on host response measures as reactive stroma grading and stromogenic carcinoma, and their predictive ability for PCa biochemical recurrence and PCa-specific death.

Data Sources.—

Our own experience has shown that reactive stroma grading and the subsequently binarized system (stromogenic carcinoma) can independently predict biochemical recurrence and/or PCa-specific death, particularly in patients with a Gleason score of 6 or 7. Stromogenic carcinoma has been validated by 4 other independent groups in at least 3 continents.

Conclusions.—

Broders grading and Dukes staging have been combined to form the most powerful prognostic tools in standard of care. The time has come for us to incorporate measures of host response (stromogenic carcinoma) into the arsenal of elements we use to predict cancer survival, without abandoning what we know works. These data also suggest that our current definition of PCa might need some revision.

Prostate cancer detection using machine learning techniques by employing combination of features extracting strategies

Prostate is a second leading causes of cancer deaths among men. Early detection of cancer can effectively reduce the rate of mortality caused by Prostate cancer. Due to high and multiresolution of MRIs from prostate cancer require a proper diagnostic systems and tools. In the past researchers developed Computer aided diagnosis (CAD) systems that help the radiologist to detect the abnormalities. In this research paper, we have employed novel Machine learning techniques such as Bayesian approach, Support vector machine (SVM) kernels: polynomial, radial base function (RBF) and Gaussian and Decision Tree for detecting prostate cancer. Moreover, different features extracting strategies are proposed to improve the detection performance. The features extracting strategies are based on texture, morphological, scale invariant feature transform (SIFT), and elliptic Fourier descriptors (EFDs) features. The performance was evaluated based on single as well as combination of features using Machine Learning Classification techniques. The Cross validation (Jack-knife k-fold) was performed and performance was evaluated in term of receiver operating curve (ROC) and specificity, sensitivity, Positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), false positive rate (FPR). Based on single features extracting strategies, SVM Gaussian Kernel gives the highest accuracy of 98.34% with AUC of 0.999. While, using combination of features extracting strategies, SVM Gaussian kernel with texture + morphological, and EFDs + morphological features give the highest accuracy of 99.71% and AUC of 1.00.

Initial risk stratification and staging in prostate cancer with prostatic-specific membrane antigen positron emission tomography/computed tomography: A first-stop-shop

Current imaging for prostate cancer (PCa) had limitations for risk stratification and staging. Magnetic resonance imaging frequently underestimated lymph node metastasis while bone scintigraphy often had diagnostic dilemmas. Prostatic-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET/CT) has been remarkable in PCa recurrence. Ninety-seven PSMA PET-CT scans were reanalyzed for tumor node metastases staging and risk stratification of lymph node and distant metastasis proportion. Histopathology of 23/97 patients was available as gold standard. Chi-square test was used for proportion comparison. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), overestimation, underestimation, and correct estimation of T and N stages were calculated. Kappa coefficient (κ) was derived for inter-rater agreement. Lymph node or distant metastasis detection on PSMA PET/CT increased significantly with increase in risk category. PSMA PET/CT sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV for extraprostatic extension, seminal vesicle invasion, and lymph node metastases were 63.16%, 100%, 100%, 36.36%; 55%, 100%, 100%, 25%; and 65.62%, 99.31%, 87.50%, and 97.53%, respectively. Kappa coefficient showed substantial agreement between PSMA PET/CT and histopathological lymph node metastases (κ = 0.734); however, it was just in fair agreement (κ = 0.277) with T stage. PSMA PET/CT overestimated, underestimated, and correct estimated T and N stages in 8.71%, 39.13%, 52.17% and 8.71%, 4.35%, and 86.96% cases, respectively. PSMA PET/CT has potential for initial risk stratification with reasonable correct N stage estimation, however underestimates T stage. Hence, we concluded that PSMA PET/CT should be used as “ first-stop-shop” for staging and initial risk stratification of PCa with regional magnetic resonance imaging in surgically resectable cases.

[Prostate gland - what would urologists like to know from radiologists?]

A more than 100-year period, where the prostate was only seen and treated as a whole is coming to an end right now. Finally, high resolution imaging is providing deep insights and detailed information so that new therapeutic procedures can aim for the smallest targets within the gland. The long-standing wish of patients for individual noninvasive diagnostics and treatment of prostate diseases can now be fulfilled by providing new tailored concepts; however, in order to transfer the enormous amount of new information into the specific clinical patient situation, a closely knit interdisciplinary approach is required. In this setting, the traditional outpatient consultation service is overstretched in every aspect. It is now the time for new innovative constructs. The current one-sided service concept for urologists, radiologists and radiation therapists is therefore behind the times and the development of a "prostate management team" with equally cooperating partners from each specialty is the task for the future.

Parameters predicting for prostate specific antigen response rates at one year post low-dose-rate intraoperative prostate brachytherapy

Purpose

To develop a model for prostate specific antigen (PSA) values at one year among patients treated with intraoperatively planned ¹²⁵I prostate brachytherapy (IOPB).

Material and methods

Four hundred and deven patients treated with IOPB for prostate adenocarcinoma were divided into four groups: those with PSA values ≥ 3 ng/ml; < 3 and ≥ 2; < 2 and ≥ 1 or PSA < 1 between 10.5 and 14.5 months post implantation (1yPSA). Ordinal regression analysis was then performed between patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics. 1yPSA values were also compared with toxicity outcomes.

Results

Median 1yPSA was 0.77 (0.04-17.36). Thirty-two patients (8%) had a PSA ≥ 3; 35 (9%) had PSA < 3, ≥ 2; 87 (21%) had PSA < 2, ≥ 1, and most patients 254 (62%) had PSA < 1. PSA response was independent of gland volume, Gleason score, clinical stage, seed activity, V₉₀, V₂₀₀, D₉₀, or number of needles and seeds used. Older patients had significantly lower 1yPSA; median ages 65.1 (46.5-81.0), 62.1 (50.4-79.5), 60.5 (47.1-80.3), and 58.1 (45.1-74.2) years for each of the 1yPSA groups respectively (p < 0.001). Also, both implant V₁₅₀ (p < 0.001) and initial PSA values (p = 0.04) were predictive of 1yPSA values. There was no correlation between 1yPSA values and toxicity encountered.

Conclusions

PSA response at 1 year post IOPB appears to be dependent on patient age, initial PSA, and implant V₁₅₀. Our results provide reassurance that parameters other than biochemical failure influence 1yPSA values.

An appraisal of analytical tools used in predicting clinical outcomes following radiation therapy treatment of men with prostate cancer: a systematic review

Background

Prostate cancer can be treated with several different modalities, including radiation treatment. Various prognostic tools have been developed to aid decision making by providing estimates of the probability of different outcomes. Such tools have been demonstrated to have better prognostic accuracy than clinical judgment alone.

Methods

A systematic review was undertaken to identify papers relating to the prediction of clinical outcomes (biochemical failure, metastasis, survival) in patients with prostate cancer who received radiation treatment, with the particular aim of identifying whether published tools are adequately developed, validated, and provide accurate predictions. PubMed and EMBASE were searched from July 2007. Title and abstract screening, full text review, and critical appraisal were conducted by two reviewers. A review protocol was published in advance of commencing literature searches.

Results

The search strategy resulted in 165 potential articles, of which 72 were selected for full text review and 47 ultimately included. These papers described 66 models which were newly developed and 31 which were external validations of already published predictive tools. The included studies represented a total of 60,457 patients, recruited between 1984 and 2009. Sixty five percent of models were not externally validated, 57% did not report accuracy and 31% included variables which are not readily accessible in existing datasets. Most models (72, 74%) related to external beam radiation therapy with the remainder relating to brachytherapy (alone or in combination with external beam radiation therapy).

Conclusions

A large number of prognostic models (97) have been described in the recent literature, representing a rapid increase since previous reviews (17 papers, 1966–2007). Most models described were not validated and a third utilised variables which are not readily accessible in existing data collections. Where validation had occurred, it was often limited to data taken from single institutes in the US. While validated and accurate models are available to predict prostate cancer specific mortality following external beam radiation therapy, there is a scarcity of such tools relating to brachytherapy. This review provides an accessible catalogue of predictive tools for current use and which should be prioritised for future validation.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13014-017-0786-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Nomogram predicting long-term survival after the diagnosis of intrahepatic recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma following an initial liver resection

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to construct and validate a nomogram for predicting survival after the intrahepatic recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following an initial hepatectomy.

METHODS

A primary cohort of 268 patients who underwent curative hepatectomy for HCC at Shinshu University Hospital between 1990 and 2010 was retrospectively studied. A nomogram was constructed based on independent prognostic factors for overall survival after recurrence. The predictive performance was evaluated using the concordance index (c-index) and a calibration curve. The nomogram was then externally validated in a cohort of patients from Tokyo University Hospital (n = 296).

RESULTS

In multivariate analysis, the following 5 variables were identified as independent predictors of overall survival and incorporated into the nomogram-Japan Integrated Stage score at initial liver resection, platelet count at initial liver resection, time until intrahepatic recurrence, vascular invasion at recurrence, and type of treatment used for intrahepatic recurrence. The nomogram had a c-index of 0.75 (95% confidence interval 0.60-0.85) for the Shinshu cohort and 0.71 (0.57-0.81) for the Tokyo cohort. The predicted 3- and 5-year survival probabilities corresponded well with the actual outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The established nomogram might be useful for estimating survival after the intrahepatic recurrence of HCC.

Sentinel lymph node detection during radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer: current evidence and results of our experience

PURPOSE

A sentinel lymph node (SNL) is the primary landing zone of cancer cells that spreads through the lymphatic vessels. The rational of the detection of sentinel node (SLN) during radical prostatectomy (RP) for prostate cancer (PCa) is the removal of the first nodal stations to provide a restriction of the template of node dissection. A review of the outcomes of SNL detection during RP for PCa was performed.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A systematic review of the literature was conducted, searching on PubMed and Web of Science, using the following keywords: lymph node dissection, prostatic neoplasm, sentinel node.

RESULTS

Twenty articles were selected and analyzed including over 2000 PCa patients. Although promising and technically feasible, many points remain to be clarified before clinical application can be recommended.

CONCLUSIONS

The technique of SNL detection is feasible and provides a higher sensitivity and detection rate than standard lymphadenectomy, especially for organ-confined tumors. Larger series and long-term follow-up data are mandatory to assess the oncologic effectiveness of the detection of SNL for PCa.

Ablative therapy for people with localised prostate cancer: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

For people with localised prostate cancer, active treatments are effective but have significant side effects. Minimally invasive treatments that destroy (or ablate) either the entire gland or the part of the prostate with cancer may be as effective and cause less side effects at an acceptable cost. Such therapies include cryotherapy, high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) and brachytherapy, among others.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to determine the relative clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ablative therapies compared with radical prostatectomy (RP), external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) and active surveillance (AS) for primary treatment of localised prostate cancer, and compared with RP for salvage treatment of localised prostate cancer which has recurred after initial treatment with EBRT.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE (1946 to March week 3, 2013), MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations (29 March 2013), EMBASE (1974 to week 13, 2013), Bioscience Information Service (BIOSIS) (1956 to 1 April 2013), Science Citation Index (1970 to 1 April 2013), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (issue 3, 2013), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR) (issue 3, 2013), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) (inception to March 2013) and Health Technology Assessment (HTA) (inception to March 2013) databases were searched. Costs were obtained from NHS sources.

REVIEW METHODS

Evidence was drawn from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and non-RCTs, and from case series for the ablative procedures only, in people with localised prostate cancer. For primary therapy, the ablative therapies were cryotherapy, HIFU, brachytherapy and other ablative therapies. The comparators were AS, RP and EBRT. For salvage therapy, the ablative therapies were cryotherapy and HIFU. The comparator was RP. Outcomes were cancer related, adverse effects (functional and procedural) and quality of life. Two reviewers extracted data and carried out quality assessment. Meta-analysis used a Bayesian indirect mixed-treatment comparison. Data were incorporated into an individual simulation Markov model to estimate cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

The searches identified 121 studies for inclusion in the review of patients undergoing primary treatment and nine studies for the review of salvage treatment. Cryotherapy [3995 patients; 14 case series, 1 RCT and 4 non-randomised comparative studies (NRCSs)], HIFU (4000 patients; 20 case series, 1 NRCS) and brachytherapy (26,129 patients; 2 RCTs, 38 NRCSs) studies provided limited data for meta-analyses. All studies were considered at high risk of bias. There was no robust evidence that mortality (4-year survival 93% for cryotherapy, 99% for HIFU, 91% for EBRT) or other cancer-specific outcomes differed between treatments. For functional and quality-of-life outcomes, the paucity of data prevented any definitive conclusions from being made, although data on incontinence rates and erectile dysfunction for all ablative procedures were generally numerically lower than for non-ablative procedures. The safety profiles were comparable with existing treatments. Studies reporting the use of focal cryotherapy suggested that incontinence rates may be better than for whole-gland treatment. Data on AS, salvage treatment and other ablative therapies were too limited. The cost-effectiveness analysis confirmed the uncertainty from the clinical review and that there is no technology which appears superior, on the basis of current evidence, in terms of average cost-effectiveness. The probabilistic sensitivity analyses suggest that a number of ablative techniques are worthy of further research.

LIMITATIONS

The main limitations were the quantity and quality of the data available on cancer-related outcomes and dysfunction.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings indicate that there is insufficient evidence to form any clear recommendations on the use of ablative therapies in order to influence current clinical practice. Research efforts in the use of ablative therapies in the management of prostate cancer should now be concentrated on the performance of RCTs and the generation of standardised outcomes.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42012002461.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

PREDICT: model for prediction of survival in localized prostate cancer

Purpose

Current models for prediction of prostate cancer-specific survival do not incorporate all present-day interventions. In the present study, a pre-treatment prediction model for patients with localized prostate cancer was developed.

Methods

From 1989 to 2008, 3383 patients were treated with I-125 brachytherapy (n = 1694), external beam radiotherapy (≥74 Gy, n = 336) or radical prostatectomy (n = 1353). Pre-treatment parameters (clinical T-stage, biopsy grade, PSA and age) were related to the hazard of mortality by multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis. The PRetreatment Estimation of the risk of Death In Cancer of the prosTate (PREDICT) model was developed. The predictive accuracy of the model was assessed by calibration and discrimination and compared to the Ash risk classification system.

Results

Of the 3383 patients analyzed, 2755 patients (81 %) were alive at the end of follow-up, 149 patients (4 %) died of prostate cancer and 365 patients (11 %) died of other causes, and for 114 patients (3 %) cause of death was unknown. Median follow-up time was 7.6 years. After correction for overoptimism, the c-statistic of the prediction model for prostate cancer-specific mortality was 0.78 (95 % CI 0.74–0.82), compared to 0.78 (95 % CI 0.75–0.81) for the risk classification system by Ash et al. The PREDICT model showed better calibration than the Ash risk classification system.

Conclusions

The PREDICT model showed a good predictive accuracy and reliability. The PREDICT model might be a promising tool for physicians to predict disease-specific survival prior to any generally accepted intervention in patients with localized prostate cancer.

Nomograms in oncology: more than meets the eye

Nomograms are widely used as prognostic devices in oncology and medicine. With the ability to generate an individual probability of a clinical event by integrating diverse prognostic and determinant variables, nomograms meet our desire for biologically and clinically integrated models and fulfill our drive towards personalised medicine. Rapid computation through user-friendly digital interfaces, together with increased accuracy, and more easily understood prognoses compared with conventional staging, allow for seamless incorporation of nomogram-derived prognosis to aid clinical decision making. This has led to the appearance of many nomograms on the internet and in medical journals, and an increase in nomogram use by patients and physicians alike. However, the statistical foundations of nomogram construction, their precise interpretation, and evidence supporting their use are generally misunderstood. This issue is leading to an under-appreciation of the inherent uncertainties regarding nomogram use. We provide a systematic, practical approach to evaluating and comprehending nomogram-derived prognoses, with particular emphasis on clarifying common misconceptions and highlighting limitations.

Development of ProCaRS Clinical Nomograms for Biochemical Failure-free Survival Following Either Low-Dose Rate Brachytherapy or Conventionally Fractionated External Beam Radiation Therapy for Localized Prostate Cancer

Purpose: Although several clinical nomograms predictive of biochemical failure-free survival (BFFS) for localized prostate cancer exist in the medical literature, making valid comparisons can be challenging due to variable definitions of biochemical failure, the disparate distribution of prognostic factors, and received treatments in patient populations. The aim of this investigation was to develop and validate clinically-based nomograms for 5-year BFFS using the ASTRO II “Phoenix” definition for two patient cohorts receiving low-dose rate (LDR) brachytherapy or conventionally fractionated external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) from a large Canadian multi-institutional database.

Methods and Materials: Patients were selected from the GUROC (Genitourinary Radiation Oncologists of Canada) Prostate Cancer Risk Stratification (ProCaRS) database if they received (1) LDR brachytherapy ≥ 144 Gy (n=4208) or (2) EBRT ≥ 70 Gy  (n=822). Multivariable Cox regression analysis for BFFS was performed separately for each cohort and used to generate clinical nomograms predictive of 5-year BFFS. Nomograms were validated using calibration plots of nomogram predicted probability versus observed probability via Kaplan-Meier estimates.

Results: Patients receiving LDR brachytherapy had a mean age of 64 ± 7 years, a mean baseline PSA of 6.3 ± 3.0 ng/mL, 75% had a Gleason 6, and 15% had a Gleason 7, whereas patients receiving EBRT had a mean age of 70 ± 6 years, a mean baseline PSA of 11.6 ± 10.7 ng/mL, 30% had a Gleason 6, 55% had a Gleason 7, and 14% had a Gleason 8-10. Nomograms for 5-year BFFS included age, use and duration of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT), baseline PSA, T stage, and Gleason score for LDR brachytherapy and an ADT (months), baseline PSA, Gleason score, and biological effective dose (Gy) for EBRT.

Conclusions: Clinical nomograms examining 5-year BFFS were developed for patients receiving either LDR brachytherapy or conventionally fractionated EBRT and may assist clinicians in predicting an outcome. Future work should be directed at examining the role of additional prognostic factors, comorbidities, and toxicity in predicting survival outcomes.

Post-operative nomogram for predicting freedom from recurrence after surgery in localised breast cancer receiving adjuvant hormone therapy

PURPOSE

To develop a prognostic nomogram to predict freedom from recurrence for patients treated with adjuvant hormonal therapy (HT) for localised breast cancer (BC).

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of 142 patients treated with adjuvant HT between 1996 and 2000. Clinical and pathological parameters were analysed.

RESULTS

A nomogram that predicts the probability of remaining free of recurrence for 5 years after surgery with adjuvant HT was developed using a Cox proportional hazards regression model. The progesterone receptor status (p < 0.001), nodal status (p = 0.008) and cathepsin-D (p < 0.001) were retained to construct the nomogram (C-index 0.734).

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram we developed may be useful for estimating the probability of successful treatment 5 years after surgery for localised BC.

Are biochemical recurrence outcomes similar after radical prostatectomy and radiation therapy? Analysis of prostate cancer-specific mortality by nomogram-predicted risks of biochemical recurrence

BACKGROUND

Due to the protracted natural history of the clinical progression of prostate cancer, biochemical recurrence (BCR) is often used to compare treatment modalities. However, BCR definitions and posttreatment prostate-specific antigen kinetics vary considerably among treatments, calling into the question the validity of such comparisons.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) according to treatment-specific nomogram-predicted risk of BCR for men treated by radical prostatectomy (RP), external-beam radiation therapy (EBRT), and brachytherapy.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A total of 13 803 men who underwent RP, EBRT, or brachytherapy at two US high-volume hospitals between 1995 and 2008.

INTERVENTION

RP, EBRT, and brachytherapy.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

The 5-yr progression-free probability (5Y-PFP) was calculated for each patient based on the treatment received using a validated treatment-specific nomogram. Fine and Gray competing risk analysis was then used to estimate PCSM by a patient's predicted 5Y-PFP. Multivariable competing risk regression analysis was used to determine the association of treatment with PCSM after adjusting for nomogram-predicted 5Y-PFP.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

Men receiving EBRT had higher 10-yr PCSM compared with those treated by RP across the range of nomogram-predicted risks of BCR: 5Y-PFP >75%, 3% versus 0.9%; 5Y-PFP 51-75%, 6.8% versus 5.9%; 5Y-PFP 26-50%, 12.2% versus 10.6%; and 5Y-PFP ≤25%, 26.6% versus 21.2%. After adjusting for nomogram-predicted 5Y-PFP, EBRT was associated with a significantly increased PCSM risk compared with RP (hazard ratio: 1.5; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-2.0; p=0.006). No statistically significant difference in PCSM was observed between patients treated by brachytherapy and RP, although patient selection factors and lack of statistical power limited this analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

EBRT patients with similar nomogram-predicted 5Y-PFP appear to have a significantly increased risk of PCSM compared with those treated by RP. Comparison of treatments using nomogram-predicted BCR end points may not be valid.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Biochemical recurrence (BCR) outcomes after external-beam radiation therapy and radical prostatectomy are associated with different risks of subsequent prostate cancer-specific mortality. Physicians and patients should cautiously interpret BCR end points when comparing treatments to make treatment decisions.

Prostate cancer Ki-67 (MIB-1) expression, perineural invasion, and gleason score as biopsy-based predictors of prostate cancer mortality: the Mayo model

OBJECTIVE

To determine the role of cellular proliferation and other biopsy-based features in the prediction of prostate cancer mortality.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Between 1993 and 2012, our institution has performed quantitation of prostate cancer DNA ploidy and Ki-67 (MIB-1) on most prostate cancer needle biopsy specimens. The outcomes of 451 consecutive patients with biopsy-proven cancer treated by radical prostatectomy between January 24, 1995, and December 29, 1998, without neoadjuvant hormonal therapy were assessed. Clinical and biopsy information obtained before radical prostatectomy was placed in multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models to predict local or systemic progression and cancer-specific death. Predictive ability was evaluated using a concordance index.

RESULTS

With a median follow-up of 12.9 years, 46 patients experienced local or systemic progression, and 18 patients died of prostate cancer. On multivariate analysis, the biopsy features of Ki-67 expression, perineural invasion, and Gleason score were associated with local or systemic progression. Ki-67 expression, perineural invasion, and Gleason score were associated with cancer-specific death with a concordance index of 0.892. After adjusting for perineural invasion and Gleason score, each 1% increase in Ki-67 expression was associated with a 12% increased risk of cancer-specific death (P<.001). Ki-67 expression alone was a strong predictor of cancer-specific outcomes and improved the predictive ability of currently used algorithms.

CONCLUSION

This study documents that long-term prostate cancer outcomes are best estimated with a combination of Gleason score, perineural invasion, and Ki-67 expression. Given its low cost, rapid assessment, and strong predictive power, we believe that adding Ki-67 expression to perineural invasion and Gleason score at biopsy should be considered a standard by which all new biomarkers are compared before introducing them into clinical practice.

Needle biopsy size and pathological Gleason Score diagnosis: No evidence for a link

BACKGROUND

Biopsy Gleason score (GS), in combination with other clinical parameters, is important to take a therapeutic decision for patients with diagnosis of localized prostate cancer. However, preoperative GS is often upgraded after a radical prostatectomy. Increasing the amount of tissue in prostate biopsy may be a way to avoid this issue. We evaluate the influence of a larger biopsy needle size on the concordance between biopsy and pathological GS.

METHODS

We analyzed paired biopsies and prostatectomy specimens from 104 cases of men with clinically localized prostate cancer. At the time of prostate biopsy, the patients were prospectively randomized into two needle groups (16-Gauge [G] and 18G) using a 1:1 ratio. GS concordance was estimated performing kappa statistic testing, overall concordance rate and risk to under grade biopsy GS=6. A logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the patients' characteristics as possible risk factors.

RESULTS

The overall concordance between prostate biopsy and pathological GS was 76.9% and 75.6% (p = 0.875) and the k values were 0.821 and 0.811 (p = 0.424), respectively, for 16G and 18G needle study groups. The risk to undergrade a biopsy GS=6 was 21.1% and 15.4% (p = 0.709) using a 16G and 18G needle, respectively. Age, prostate-specific antigen, prostate volume and needle calibre were not independently associated with a higher risk of GS discordance.

CONCLUSIONS

Needle size does not affect the concordance between biopsy and pathological GS. Although GS is not the only way to determine treatment, it is still an unresolved urological issue.

ACR Appropriateness Criteria prostate cancer--pretreatment detection, staging, and surveillance

Prostate cancer is the most common noncutaneous male malignancy in the United States. The use of serum prostate-specific antigen as a screening tool is complicated by a significant fraction of nonlethal cancers diagnosed by biopsy. Ultrasound is used predominately as a biopsy guidance tool. Combined rectal examination, prostate-specific antigen testing, and histology from ultrasound-guided biopsy provide risk stratification for locally advanced and metastatic disease. Imaging in low-risk patients is unlikely to guide management for patients electing up-front treatment. MRI, CT, and bone scans are appropriate in intermediate-risk to high-risk patients to better assess the extent of disease, guide therapy decisions, and predict outcomes. MRI (particularly with an endorectal coil and multiparametric functional imaging) provides the best imaging for cancer detection and staging. There may be a role for prostate MRI in the context of active surveillance for low-risk patients and in cancer detection for undiagnosed clinically suspected cancer after negative biopsy results. The ACR Appropriateness Criteria are evidence-based guidelines for specific clinical conditions that are reviewed every 2 years by a multidisciplinary expert panel. The guideline development and review include an extensive analysis of current medical literature from peer-reviewed journals and the application of a well-established consensus methodology (modified Delphi) to rate the appropriateness of imaging and treatment procedures by the panel. In those instances in which evidence is lacking or not definitive, expert opinion may be used to recommend imaging or treatment.

The role of prostate-specific antigen in light of new scientific evidence

OBJECTIVE

Review the scientific evidence acquired in recent years on Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA).

ACQUISITION OF EVIDENCE

Analysis of the available evidence on the current role of PSA, according to a panel of experts who recorded their experience on the subject.

SUMMARY OF THE EVIDENCE

Currently, PSA cannot be considered solely an indicator of the presence or absence of prostate cancer. Rather, the determination of PSA assists the urologist in indicating the most appropriate treatment for a patient with benign prostatic hypertrophic (BPH), as well as in suspecting a prostatic tumour when the PSA reading increases >0,3 ng/ml, in patients treated with 5-alpha-reductase inhibitor, over the reading achieved at six months of having initiated this treatment. Moreover, PSA is a key factor in the follow-up of patients with prostate adenocarcinoma who undergo surgery, radiation therapy or minimally invasive techniques. PSA helps to define biochemical recurrence, suggest the existence of a local or distal recurrence and propose or rule out adjuvant therapies.

CONCLUSIONS

New data on the current role of PSA in the management of patients treated for BPH and/or prostate cancer should be taken into account.

Predictive Models in Urology

Predictive modeling is emerging as an important knowledge-based technology in healthcare.

The interest in the use of predictive modeling reflects advances on different fronts such as the availability of health information from increasingly complex databases and electronic health records, a better understanding of causal or statistical predictors of health, disease processes and multifactorial models of ill-health and developments in nonlinear computer models using artificial intelligence or neural networks.

These new computer-based forms of modeling are increasingly able to establish technical credibility in clinical contexts. The current state of knowledge is still quite young in understanding the likely future direction of how this so-called ‘machine intelligence’ will evolve and therefore how current relatively sophisticated predictive models will evolve in response to improvements in technology, which is advancing along a wide front.

Predictive models in urology are gaining progressive popularity not only for academic and scientific purposes but also into the clinical practice with the introduction of several nomograms dealing with the main fields of onco-urology.

Prediction of pathological and oncological outcomes based on extended prostate biopsy results in patients with prostate cancer receiving radical prostatectomy: a single institution study

Background

The prediction of pathological outcomes prior to surgery remains a challenging problem for the appropriate surgical indication of prostate cancer. This study was performed to identify preoperative values predictive of pathological and oncological outcomes based on standardized extended prostate biopsies with core histological results diagrammed/mapped in patients receiving radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer clinically diagnosed as localized or locally advanced disease.

Methods

In 124 patients with clinically localized or locally advanced prostate cancer (cT1c–cT3a) without prior treatment, pathological outcomes on the surgical specimen including seminal vesicle involvement (SVI), positive surgical margin (PSM), and perineural invasion (PNI) were studied in comparison with clinical parameters based on the results of 14-core prostate biopsies comprising sextant, laterally-directed sextant, and bilateral transition zone (TZ) sampling.

Results

Concerning the association of pathological outcomes with oncological outcomes, patients with PSM and PNI on surgical specimens had poorer biochemical-progression-free survival than those without PSM (logrank p = 0.002) and PNI (p = 0.003); it was also poorer concerning SVI, although the difference was not significant (p = 0.120). Concerning the impact of clinical parameters on these pathological outcomes, positive TZ and multiple positive biopsy cores in the prostatic middle were independent values predictive of SVI with multivariate analyses (p = 0.020 and p = 0.025, respectively); both positive TZ and multiple positive prostatic middle biopsies were associated with larger tumor volume (p < 0.001 in both). The percentage of positive biopsy cores (%positive cores) and biopsy Gleason score were independent values predictive of PSM (p = 0.001) and PNI (p = 0.001), respectively. Multiple positive cores in the prostatic base were associated with proximal/bladder-side PSM (p < 0.001), and also linked to poorer biochemical-progression-free survival (p = 0.004). Clinical T stage had no association with these pathological outcomes.

Conclusions

%positive cores and Gleason score in extended biopsies were independent values predictive of PSM and PNI in prostate cancer clinically diagnosed as localized or locally advanced disease, respectively, which were associated with poorer oncological outcomes. When diagramming biopsy-core results, extended biopsy may provide additional information for predicting oncological and pathological outcomes including SVI in patients clinically diagnosed as having localized or locally advanced disease.

Virtual slides

The virtual slide(s) for this article can be found here: http://www.diagnosticpathology.diagnomx.eu/vs/8790262771042628

Twelve-month prostate-specific antigen values and perineural invasion as strong independent prognostic variables of long-term biochemical outcome after prostate seed brachytherapy

PURPOSE

To determine whether post-treatment prostate-specific antigen (ptPSA) values at 12 months and other clinical parameters predict long-term PSA relapse-free survival (PRFS) following prostate seed brachytherapy.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Records of 204 hormone-naïve patients with localized adenocarcinoma of the prostate treated at St. Mary's Regional Medical Center in Reno, NV, and at Carson Tahoe Regional Medical Center in Carson City, NV, between 1998 and 2003, using I-125 or Pd-103 seed brachytherapy, were retrospectively analyzed. Treatment planning was done using a preplanned, modified peripheral loading technique. A total of 185 of 204 patients had PSA records at 12 months after implant. Variables included were age, initial pretreatment PSA, Gleason score, T stage, National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) risk group (RG), perineural invasion (PNI), external beam boost, dose, and ptPSA levels at 12 months with cutpoints at ≤1, 1.01 to 2.00, 2.01 to 3.00, and >3.00 ng/ml.

RESULTS

Median follow-up was 80 months, and median age was 69 years. The numbers of patients stratified by NCCN low, intermediate, and high RG were 110:65:10, respectively. Monotherapy and boost prescription doses were 145 Gy and 110 Gy for I-125, and 125 Gy and 100 Gy for Pd-103 seeds, respectively. The median dose (D90) was 95.4% of the prescribed dose. The 5-year PRFS at the 12-months ptPSA levels of ≤1, 1.01 to 2.00, 2.01 to 3.00, and >3.00 ng/ml were 98.5%, 85.7%, 61.5%, and 22.2%, respectively. The 10-year PRFS at the 12-months ptPSA levels of ≤1 and 1.01 to 2.00 ng/ml were 90.5% and 85.7%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, both ptPSA and PNI were significant independent predictors of PRFS. Hazard ratios (HR) for ptPSA levels at ≤1, 1.01 to 2.00, 2.01 to 3.00, and >3.00 ng/ml at 12 months were 1, 4.96, 27.57, and 65.10, respectively. PNI had an HR of 6.1 (p=0.009).

CONCLUSIONS

Presence of PNI and ptPSA values at 12 months are strong prognostic variables for long-term PRFS after definitive prostate brachytherapy seed implantation.

Outcomes after prostate brachytherapy are even better than predicted

BACKGROUND

During the first 3 years after prostate cancer treatment with radiation therapy, benign prostate-specific antigen (PSA) bounces are difficult for clinicians to distinguish from a biochemical recurrence, which can result in unnecessary interventions and erroneous predictions of outcomes. The objective of this study was to evaluate a commonly used PSA failure definition in a multinational, multi-institutional study after monotherapy with prostate brachytherapy.

METHODS

Participants were selected from 2919 men who underwent permanent prostate brachytherapy at the University Medical Center Utrecht, Princess Margaret Hospital, or Seattle Prostate Institute between 1998 and 2006. Inclusion required not having received androgen-deprivation therapy and having at least 30 months of follow-up. Failure was defined as any post-treatment use of hormone therapy, clinical relapse, or prostogram-defined biochemical (PSA) failure. Cases in which the nomogram predicted biochemical failure were evaluated at each institution to verify biochemical status over time and the actual clinical outcome at 5 years.

RESULTS

The median follow-up for the 1816 patients was 5.2 years. Concordance between the prostogram-predicted and actual outcomes, as measured by the Harrell c statistic, was 0.655 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.536-0.774; P = .010) for the Princess Margaret group, 0.493 (95% CI, 0.259-0.648; P = .955) for the Seattle group, and 0.696 (95% CI, 0.648-0.744, P < .001) for the Utrecht group. The overall mean difference in biochemical recurrence-free survival at 5 years between actual outcomes and prostogram-defined outcomes was 9.2% (95% CI, 7.7%-10.6%). The total numbers of prostogram-defined and actual biochemical failures were 312 and 157, respectively (P = .001).

CONCLUSIONS

The widely used prostogram could not adequately distinguish a benign PSA bounce from a biochemical recurrence after prostate brachytherapy and could not be used to counsel patients about their predicted outcomes after treatment. The authors conclude that, to avoid unnecessary active interventions after treatment, clinicians should monitor PSA levels for at least 3 years and provide reassurance to patients that a PSA rise during this time is common and may not indicate a treatment failure.

From gene to clinic: TMA-based clinical validation of molecular markers in prostate cancer

Current high-throughput screening techniques using DNA arrays have identified hundreds of new candidate biomarkers for diagnosis and risk prediction of prostate cancer. Large-scale analysis of clinical prostate cancer specimens is a key prerequisite for the validation of these genes. We have constructed a tissue microarray from more than 2,500 prostate cancers with full histo-pathological and clinical long-term follow-up data and analyzed expression and gene copy number patterns of 16 different candidate markers for their ability to predict prostate cancer progression and patient prognosis. The best candidates were used to extend established clinical prediction tools (nomograms) that were based on nonmolecular data only, such as prostate-specific antigene (PSA), clinical stage, and histological grading (Gleason grade). Using this approach, we could identify ANXA3 as an independent marker, which was capable of increasing the accuracy of the clinical nomogram, thereby fulfilling the criteria of a novel prognostic prostate cancer marker. This approach of integrating large-scale clinical and molecular variables may provide a new paradigm for the use of molecular profiling to predict the clinical outcome in prostate cancer.

Predictive and prognostic models in radical prostatectomy candidates: a critical analysis of the literature

CONTEXT

Numerous predictive and prognostic tools have recently been developed for risk stratification of prostate cancer (PCa) patients who are candidates for or have been treated with radical prostatectomy (RP).

OBJECTIVE

To critically review the currently available predictive and prognostic tools for RP patients and to describe the criteria that should be applied in selecting the most accurate and appropriate tool for a given clinical scenario.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

A review of the literature was performed using the Medline, Scopus, and Web of Science databases. Relevant reports published between 1996 and January 2010 identified using the keywords prostate cancer, radical prostatectomy, predictive tools, predictive models, and nomograms were critically reviewed and summarised.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

We identified 16 predictive and 22 prognostic validated tools that address a variety of end points related to RP. The majority of tools are prediction models, while a few consist of risk-stratification schemes. Regardless of their format, the tools can be distinguished as preoperative or postoperative. Preoperative tools focus on either predicting pathologic tumour characteristics or assessing the probability of biochemical recurrence (BCR) after RP. Postoperative tools focus on cancer control outcomes (BCR, metastatic progression, PCa-specific mortality [PCSM], overall mortality). Finally, a novel category of tools focuses on functional outcomes. Prediction tools have shown better performance in outcome prediction than the opinions of expert clinicians. The use of these tools in clinical decision-making provides more accurate and highly reproducible estimates of the outcome of interest. Efforts are still needed to improve the available tools' accuracy and to provide more evidence to further justify their routine use in clinical practice. In addition, prediction tools should be externally validated in independent cohorts before they are applied to different patient populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Predictive and prognostic tools represent valuable aids that are meant to consistently and accurately provide most evidence-based estimates of the end points of interest. More accurate, flexible, and easily accessible tools are needed to simplify the practical task of prediction.

The 'CaP Calculator': an online decision support tool for clinically localized prostate cancer

OBJECTIVE

To design a decision-support tool to facilitate evidence-based treatment decisions in clinically localized prostate cancer, as individualized risk assessment and shared decision-making can decrease distress and decisional regret in patients with prostate cancer, but current individual models vary or only predict one outcome of interest.

METHODS

We searched Medline for previous reports and identified peer-reviewed articles providing pretreatment predictive models that estimated pathological stage and treatment outcomes in men with biopsy-confirmed, clinical T1-3 prostate cancer. Each model was entered into a spreadsheet to provide calculated estimates of extracapsular extension (ECE), seminal vesicle invasion (SVI), and lymph node involvement (LNI). Estimates of the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) outcome after radical prostatectomy (RP) or radiotherapy (RT), and clinical outcomes after RT, were also entered. The data are available at http://www.capcalculator.org.

RESULTS

Entering a patient's 2002 clinical T stage, Gleason score and pretreatment PSA level, and details from core biopsy findings, into the CaP Calculator provides estimates from predictive models of pathological extent of disease, four models for ECE, four for SVI and eight for LNI. The 5-year estimates of PSA relapse-free survival after RT and 10-year estimates after RP were available. A printout can be generated with individualized results for clinicians to review with each patient.

CONCLUSIONS

The CaP Calculator is a free, online 'clearing house' of several predictive models for prostate cancer, available in an accessible, user-friendly format. With further development and testing with patients, the CaP Calculator might be a useful decision-support tool to help doctors promote evidence-based shared decision-making in prostate cancer.

Tumor angiogenesis as an early marker of long-term prostate cancer mortality

Evaluation of: Mucci LA, Powolny A, Giovannucci E et al.: Prospective study of prostate tumor angiogenesis and cancer-specific mortality in the health professionals follow-up study. J. Clin. Oncol. 27, 5627–5633 (2009). Most prostate cancer patients are diagnosed with localized disease. Long-term prostate cancer mortality is low, and many patients have been overtreated. Better prediction tools are needed to distinguish clinically insignificant, low-risk prostate cancers from lethal diseases. Tumor microvessel density, a marker of angiogenesis, has been shown to be related to the development of prostate cancer metastasis and even mortality. Mucci et al. found that morphologic characteristics of tumor microvessels, such as vessel size and irregularity, from prostatectomy specimen may be better than microvessel density as indicators of active angiogenesis, cancer aggressiveness and metastatic potential, and potentially prostate cancer-specific mortality. Prognostic tools combining angiogenesis biomarkers and clinical features led to marked improvement in the prediction of lethal prostate cancer. If these results are confirmed with studies from prostate biopsy samples, this novel prognosis tool will be of significant importance to guide clinical decision-making for localized prostate cancer.

Critical review of prostate cancer predictive tools

Prostate cancer is a very complex disease, and the decision-making process requires the clinician to balance clinical benefits, life expectancy, comorbidities and potential treatment-related side effects. Accurate prediction of clinical outcomes may help in the difficult process of making decisions related to prostate cancer. In this review, we discuss attributes of predictive tools and systematically review those available for prostate cancer. Types of tools include probability formulas, look-up and propensity scoring tables, risk-class stratification prediction tools, classification and regression tree analysis, nomograms and artificial neural networks. Criteria to evaluate tools include discrimination, calibration, generalizability, level of complexity, decision analysis and ability to account for competing risks and conditional probabilities. The available predictive tools and their features, with a focus on nomograms, are described. While some tools are well-calibrated, few have been externally validated or directly compared with other tools. In addition, the clinical consequences of applying predictive tools need thorough assessment. Nevertheless, predictive tools can facilitate medical decision-making by showing patients tailored predictions of their outcomes with various alternatives. Additionally, accurate tools may improve clinical trial design.

Background for the proposal of SIOG guidelines for the management of prostate cancer in senior adults

BACKGROUND

The incidence of prostate cancer increases with age, with a median age at diagnosis of 68 years. Owing to increased life expectancy, the management of prostate cancer in senior adult men (i.e., aged 70 years or older) represents an important public health concern and a major challenge for the future. No specific guidelines have previously been published on the management of prostate cancer in older men. The SIOG has developed a proposal of recommendations in this setting.

METHODS

A systematic bibliographical search focused on screening, diagnostic procedures, treatment options for localised, locally advanced and metastatic prostate cancer in senior adults was performed. Specific aspects of the geriatric approach were emphasised, including evaluation of health status (nutritional, cognitive, thymic, physical and psycho-social) and screening for vulnerability and frailty. Attention was drawn to the consequences of androgen deprivation and complications of local treatment, mainly incontinence. The collected material has been reviewed and discussed by a scientific panel including urologists, radiation oncologists, medical oncologists and geriatricians from both Europe and North America.

RESULTS

The consensus is to use either European Association of Urology or National Comprehensive Cancer Network clinical recommendations for prostate cancer treatment and to adapt them to health status based on instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) and activities daily living (ADL), comorbidity evaluation by Cumulative Illness Scoring Rating-Geriatrics and screening for malnutrition. Patients in Group 1 (no abnormality) are 'fit' and should receive the same treatment as younger patients; patients in Group 2 (one impairment in IADL or one uncontrolled comorbidity or at risk of malnutrition) are 'vulnerable' and should receive standard treatment after medical intervention; patients in Group 3 (one impairment in ADL or more than one uncontrolled comorbidity or severe malnutrition) are 'frail' and should receive adapted treatment; patients in Group 4 (dependent) should receive only symptomatic palliative treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment of prostate cancer in senior adults should be adapted to health status. Specific prospective studies in this setting are warranted.