Coping with complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity in risk governance: a synthesis

Definition and use of Solution-focused Sustainability Assessment: A novel approach to generate, explore and decide on sustainable solutions for wicked problems

This paper introduces Solution-focused Sustainability Assessment (SfSA), provides practical guidance formatted as a versatile process framework, and illustrates its utility for solving a wicked environmental management problem. Society faces complex and increasingly wicked environmental problems for which sustainable solutions are sought. Wicked problems are multi-faceted, and deriving of a management solution requires an approach that is participative, iterative, innovative, and transparent in its definition of sustainability and translation to sustainability metrics. We suggest to add the use of a solution-focused approach. The SfSA framework is collated from elements from risk assessment, risk governance, adaptive management and sustainability assessment frameworks, expanded with the 'solution-focused' paradigm as recently proposed in the context of risk assessment. The main innovation of this approach is the broad exploration of solutions upfront in assessment projects. The case study concerns the sustainable management of slightly contaminated sediments continuously formed in ditches in rural, agricultural areas. This problem is wicked, as disposal of contaminated sediment on adjacent land is potentially hazardous to humans, ecosystems and agricultural products. Non-removal would however reduce drainage capacity followed by increased risks of flooding, while contaminated sediment removal followed by offsite treatment implies high budget costs and soil subsidence. Application of the steps in the SfSA-framework served in solving this problem. Important elements were early exploration of a wide 'solution-space', stakeholder involvement from the onset of the assessment, clear agreements on the risk and sustainability metrics of the problem and on the interpretation and decision procedures, and adaptive management. Application of the key elements of the SfSA approach eventually resulted in adoption of a novel sediment management policy. The stakeholder participation and the intensive communication throughout the project resulted in broad support for both the scientific approaches and results, as well as for policy implementation.

Rethinking risk assessment for emerging technology first-in-human trials

Recent progress in synthetic biology (SynBio) has enabled the development of novel therapeutic opportunities for the treatment of human disease. In the near future, first-in-human trials (FIH) will be indicated. FIH trials mark a key milestone in the translation of medical SynBio applications into clinical practice. Fostered by uncertainty of possible adverse events for trial participants, a variety of ethical concerns emerge with regards to SynBio FIH trials, including 'risk' minimization. These concerns are associated with any FIH trial, however, due to the novelty of the approach, they become more pronounced for medical applications of emerging technologies (emTech) like SynBio. To minimize potential harm for trial participants, scholars, guidelines, regulations and policy makers alike suggest using 'risk assessment' as evaluation tool for such trials. Conversely, in the context of emTech FIH trials, we believe it to be at least questionable to contextualize uncertainty of potential adverse events as 'risk' and apply traditional risk assessment methods. Hence, this issue needs to be discussed to enable alterations of the evaluation process before the translational phase of SynBio applications begins. In this paper, we will take the opportunity to start the debate and highlight how a misunderstanding of the concept of risk, and the possibilities and limitations of risk assessment, respectively, might impair decision-making by the relevant regulatory authorities and research ethics committees, and discuss possible solutions to tackle the issue.

Trust, regulatory processes and NICE decision-making: Appraising cost-effectiveness models through appraising people and systems

This article presents an ethnographic study of regulatory decision-making regarding the cost-effectiveness of expensive medicines at the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in England. We explored trust as one important mechanism by which problems of complexity and uncertainty were resolved. Existing studies note the salience of trust for regulatory decisions, by which the appraisal of people becomes a proxy for appraising technologies themselves. Although such (dis)trust in manufacturers was one important influence, we describe a more intricate web of (dis)trust relations also involving various expert advisors, fellow committee members and committee Chairs. Within these complex chains of relations, we found examples of both more blind-acquiescent and more critical-Investigative forms of trust as well as, at times, pronounced distrust. Difficulties in overcoming uncertainty through other means obliged trust in some contexts, although not in others. (Dis)trust was constructed through inferences involving abstract systems alongside actors' oral and written presentations-of-self. Systemic features and 'forced options' to trust indicate potential insidious processes of regulatory capture.

Evaluating governance for sustainable development - Insights from experiences in the Dutch fen landscape

Prominent strands of discussion in the literature on governance for sustainable development debate how change can be induced to enhance sustainability, and how to evaluate the interventions aimed at prompting such change. Strikingly, there are few contributions about how prominent ideas of inducing change deal with multiple governance criteria for pursuing sustainable development. Moreover, the way ideas about inducing change relate to criteria of governance for sustainable development is not yet studied in an empirical context. This paper therefore comparatively analyses how three prominent modes of sustainable development governance - adaptive management, transition management and payments for environmental services - relate to a set of five prominent criteria reported in the literature, namely: equity, democracy, legitimacy, the handling of scale issues and the handling of uncertainty issues. It finds that the academic debates on these three modes address these criteria with varying attention and rather fragmented, while in the empirical setting of the Dutch fen landscape several aspects relating to the studied criteria were present and substantially influenced the functioning of the three modes of sustainable development. Together, the analysis of the literature debate and the empirical data are able to show that a narrow evaluation perspective may fail to diagnose and capture relevant struggles and complexities coming along with governance for sustainable development relevant issues. The study shows that in order to advance our understanding of governance for sustainable development, it is indeed important to include multiple criteria in studying these modes. Moreover, the study shows the importance of including empirical experiences which manifest when different modes for sustainable development are applied in real-world settings.

The Mutable Nature of Risk and Acceptability: A Hybrid Risk Governance Framework

This article focuses on the fluid nature of risk problems and the challenges it presents to establishing acceptability in risk governance. It introduces an actor-network theory (ANT) perspective as a way to deal with the mutable nature of risk controversies and the configuration of stakeholders. To translate this into a practicable framework, the article proposes a hybrid risk governance framework that combines ANT with integrative risk governance, deliberative democracy, and responsive regulation. This addresses a number of the limitations in existing risk governance models, including: (1) the lack of more substantive public participation throughout the lifecycle of a project; (2) hijacking of deliberative forums by particular groups; and (3) the treatment of risk problems and their associated stakeholders as immutable entities. The framework constitutes a five-stage process of co-selection, co-design, co-planning, and co-regulation to facilitate the co-production of collective interests and knowledge, build capacities, and strengthen accountability in the process. The aims of this article are twofold: conceptually, it introduces a framework of risk governance that accounts for the mutable nature of risk problems and configuration of stakeholders. In practice, this article offers risk managers and practitioners of risk governance a set of procedures with which to operationalize this conceptual approach to risk and stakeholder engagement.

Risk assessment of vector-borne diseases for public health governance

OBJECTIVES

In the context of public health, risk governance (or risk analysis) is a framework for the assessment and subsequent management and/or control of the danger posed by an identified disease threat. Generic frameworks in which to carry out risk assessment have been developed by various agencies. These include monitoring, data collection, statistical analysis and dissemination. Due to the inherent complexity of disease systems, however, the generic approach must be modified for individual, disease-specific risk assessment frameworks.

STUDY DESIGN

The analysis was based on the review of the current risk assessments of vector-borne diseases adopted by the main Public Health organisations (OIE, WHO, ECDC, FAO, CDC etc…).

METHODS

Literature, legislation and statistical assessment of the risk analysis frameworks.

RESULTS

This review outlines the need for the development of a general public health risk assessment method for vector-borne diseases, in order to guarantee that sufficient information is gathered to apply robust models of risk assessment. Stochastic (especially spatial) methods, often in Bayesian frameworks are now gaining prominence in standard risk assessment procedures because of their ability to assess accurately model uncertainties.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk assessment needs to be addressed quantitatively wherever possible, and submitted with its quality assessment in order to enable successful public health measures to be adopted. In terms of current practice, often a series of different models and analyses are applied to the same problem, with results and outcomes that are difficult to compare because of the unknown model and data uncertainties. Therefore, the risk assessment areas in need of further research are identified in this article.

Epidemiology caught in the causal web of bovine tuberculosis

Bovine tuberculosis in domestic cattle in the presence of significant infection levels in wild animal species represents a major challenge for disease control. The use of wild animal population density reduction as part of risk management policies is highly controversial from the perspectives of scientific effectiveness and societal acceptability. The experience in Great Britain in dealing with this problem over the last 20 years demonstrates the need to engage in an integrated approach towards risk governance to more effectively deal with such a complex and contentious multifactorial animal disease problem. As part of this process, the traditional emphasis on bioscientific, in particular epidemiological, research needs to be complemented by relevant social science approaches. In addition, the risk assessment as well as the risk management should have effective participatory elements.

Using risk assessment as part of a systems approach to the control and prevention of HPAIV H5N1

Since its emergence in China in 1996, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 has spread across Asia, Africa, and Europe. Countries had to promptly implement control and prevention measures. Numerous research and capacity building initiatives were conducted in the affected regions to improve the capacity of national animal health services to support the development of risk-based mitigation strategies. This paper reviews and discusses risk assessments initiated in several South-East Asian and African countries under one of these projects. Despite important data gaps, the risk assessment results improved the ability of policy makers to design appropriate risk management policies. Disease risk was strongly influenced by various human behavioral factors. The ongoing circulation of HPAIV H5N1 in several Asian countries and in Egypt, despite major disease control efforts, supports the need for an interdisciplinary approach to development of tailored risk management policies, in accordance with the EcoHealth paradigm and the broad concept of risk governance. In particular, active stakeholders engagement and integration of economic and social studies into the policy making process are needed to optimize compliance and sustainable behavioral changes, thereby increasing the effectiveness of mitigation strategies.

Climate change and public health policy: translating the science

Public health authorities are required to prepare for future threats and need predictions of the likely impact of climate change on public health risks. They may get overwhelmed by the volume of heterogeneous information in scientific articles and risk relying purely on the public opinion articles which focus mainly on global warming trends, and leave out many other relevant factors. In the current paper, we discuss various scientific approaches investigating climate change and its possible impact on public health and discuss their different roles and functions in unraveling the complexity of the subject. It is not our objective to review the available literature or to make predictions for certain diseases or countries, but rather to evaluate the applicability of scientific research articles on climate change to evidence-based public health decisions. In the context of mosquito borne diseases, we identify common pitfalls to watch out for when assessing scientific research on the impact of climate change on human health. We aim to provide guidance through the plethora of scientific papers and views on the impact of climate change on human health to those new to the subject, as well as to remind public health experts of its multifactorial and multidisciplinary character.

Implementing recommendations from accident investigations: a case study of inter-organisational challenges

In many industries, a national accident investigation board conducts investigations following major accidents. For safety improvements to be achieved, however, it is essential that the recommendations presented in these investigations are followed by necessary actions. In this paper, challenges related to implementation of recommendations from accident investigations are studied. The theoretical framework providing the foundation for the study lies at the intersection between systems safety, risk governance, and implementation research. Empirical data for the case study was collected from the Swedish railway sector. The first part of the paper presents an analysis of the extent of recommendations that have not resulted in implemented actions. The second part consists of an interview study aiming at providing a deeper understanding of the difficulties related to transforming these recommendations into actual changes. Two key factors that give rise to challenges to implementation of recommendations are identified. The first factor is related to the different actors' views on their own and other stakeholders' roles in the implementation process, and can be described as a trade-off between being insider and outsider to the industry. The second factor is related to the scope of the accident investigations and their recommendations, and can be described as a trade-off between micro-level and macro-level factors. The opportunities for implementing recommendations, and achieving safety improvements at the industry level, are affected by the ways in which the different stakeholders manage these trade-offs at the local level. This study thus mainly contributes by highlighting the importance of co-ordinating the various actors involved in the implementation process, and the results show that challenges to implementation to a large extent arise in the interactions between these actors.

Improving the decision-making process for nonprescription drugs: a framework for benefit-risk assessment

Nonprescription drugs pose unique challenges to regulators. The fact that the barriers to access are lower for nonprescription drugs as compared with prescription drugs may permit additional consumers to obtain effective drugs. However, the use of these drugs by consumers in the absence of supervision by a health-care professional may result in unacceptable rates of misuse and suboptimal clinical outcomes. A value-tree method is proposed that defines important benefit and risk domains relevant to nonprescription drugs. This value tree can be used to comprehensively identify product-specific attributes in each domain and can also support formal benefit-risk assessment using a variety of tools. This is illustrated here, using a modification of the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) framework, a flexible tool previously applied in a number of fields, which systematizes an approach to issue review, early alignment of stakeholders, evaluation, and risk mitigation/management. The proposed approach has the potential to provide structured, transparent tools for regulatory decision making for nonprescription drugs.