Pretreatment nomogram for predicting freedom from recurrence after permanent prostate brachytherapy in prostate cancer

Development of a prostate cancer metagram: a solution to the dilemma of which prediction tool to use in patient counseling

Many treatment options are available to the human with clinically localized prostate cancer, including surgery, radiation, and even active surveillance. To the authors' knowledge, there is no consensus on the optimal management of this patient population, with most clinicians tending to recommend the treatment with which they are most familiar. Effective patient counseling allowing informed decision making can be best achieved with a formalized system that offers accurate predictions of outcomes for all available treatment approaches. The authors organized the currently available prostate cancer prediction tools toward the formation of a metagram that can be used to tailor management to the individual patient. A comprehensive review of the literature was performed to identify published prediction tools intended for use in prostate cancer. Tools were categorized by a combination of treatment modality and the outcome being predicted, and incorporated into a metagram constructed of 16 different treatment options and 10 outcomes related to cancer control, survival, and morbidity. A search of the literature revealed 44 prostate cancer prediction tools that assessed at least 1 of the 160 treatment/outcome combinations that comprise the metagram. Only 31 cells of the metagram were populated with currently available tools. Prediction tools offer the most accurate estimates of outcomes in prostate cancer, but their current role in patient counseling is complicated by the large number of existing tools, as well as a lack of comparative data. To address this, the authors incorporated the most relevant prediction tools currently available into a prostate cancer metagram that may offer evidence-based and individualized predictions for multiple endpoints after all available treatment options in clinically localized prostate cancer. The metagram also reveals areas of deficiency in the current catalog of prediction tools. Many more prediction tools are needed. Cancer 2009;115(13 suppl):3039-45. (c) 2009 American Cancer Society.

Use of Nomograms for Personalized Decision-Analytic Recommendations

Objective. A difficulty with applying decision analysis at the bedside is that it generally requires computer software for the calculations, which may render the method impractical. The purpose of this study was to illustrate the feasibility of developing a regression model that approximates the results from a published decision-analytic model for prostate cancer and permits bedside generation of personalized decision-analytic recommendations with a paper nomogram. Methods. The authors used the example of radical prostatectomy v. watchful waiting for patients with early-stage prostate cancer. First, they took a published decision analysis and generated recommendations using simulated data where patient baseline factors and preference scores for health states were systematically varied. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify the parameters with strong associations with the recommendation. A reduced model was fit that excluded other preference scores except for watchful waiting. They compared the recommended management predictive accuracies from the full v. reduced model at the individual patient level for 63 men from another published study. Discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. A nomogram was constructed from the covariates in the reduced model. Results. The reduced logistic regression model predicted the recommendations accurately for the 63 patients, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.92. Discrimination was excellent as demonstrated by histograms. Conclusions. The authors demonstrated that logistic regression modeling allows accurate reproduction of decision-analytic recommendations with simplified calculations, which can be accomplished using a graphic nomogram. This approach should facilitate clinical decision analysis at the bedside.

Epidemiology and statistical methods in prediction of patient outcome

Substantial gaps exist in the data of the assessment of risk and prognosis that limit our understanding of the complex mechanisms that contribute to the greatest cancer epidemic, prostate cancer, of our time. This report was prepared by an international multidisciplinary committee of the World Health Organization to address contemporary issues of epidemiology and statistical methods in prostate cancer, including a summary of current risk assessment methods and prognostic factors. Emphasis was placed on the relative merits of each of the statistical methods available. We concluded that: 1. An international committee should be created to guide the assessment and validation of molecular biomarkers. The goal is to achieve more precise identification of those who would benefit from treatment. 2. Prostate cancer is a predictable disease despite its biologic heterogeneity. However, the accuracy of predicting it must be improved. We expect that more precise statistical methods will supplant the current staging system. The simplicity and intuitive ease of using the current staging system must be balanced against the serious compromise in accuracy for the individual patient. 3. The most useful new statistical approaches will integrate molecular biomarkers with existing prognostic factors to predict conditional life expectancy (i.e. the expected remaining years of a patient's life) and take into account all-cause mortality.

The probability of Gleason score upgrading between biopsy and radical prostatectomy can be accurately predicted

The objective of this study was to test the external validity of a previously developed nomogram for the prediction of Gleason score upgrading (GSU) between biopsy and radical prostatectomy (RP). The study population consisted of 973 assessable patients treated with RP at a tertiary care institution. The accuracy of the nomogram was quantified with the receiver operating characteristics curve-derived area under the curve. The performance characteristics (predicted vs observed rate of GSU) were tested within a calibration plot. Overall, GSU was recorded in 39.8% (n = 387) of patients at RP. Of patients with GSU, 70 (18.1%), 23 (5.9%) and 32 (8.3%), respectively, had extracapsular extension, seminal vesicle invasion and lymph node invasion. The accuracy of the nomogram was 74.9% (confidence interval 72.1-77.6%). The model tended to underestimate the observed rate of GSU and the discordance between the predicted and observed rate of GSU ranged from -7 to +10%. The current tool represents the most accurate method of predicting GSU between biopsy and RP. Nonetheless it is not perfect and its performance characteristics should be known prior to its use in clinical decision-making.

Evaluating localized prostate cancer and identifying candidates for focal therapy

Can focal therapy successfully control prostate cancer? Also, if so, which patients should be considered eligible? With limited data available from relatively few patients, these questions are difficult to answer. At this writing, the most likely candidates for focal therapy are patients with low-risk, small-volume tumors, located in 1 region or sector of the prostate, who would benefit from early intervention. The difficulty lies in reliably identifying these men. The larger number of cores obtained in each needle biopsy session has increased both the detection of prostate cancer and the potential risk of overtreating many patients whose cancers pose very little risk to life or health. Urologists typically perform at least a 12-core template biopsy. Although the debate continues about the optimal template, laterally and peripherally directed biopsies have been shown to improve the diagnostic yield. However, as many as 25% of tumors arise anteriorly and can be missed with peripherally directed techniques. Prostate cancer tends to be multifocal, even in its earliest stages. However, the secondary cancers are usually smaller and less aggressive than the index cancer. They appear similar to the incidental cancers found in cystoprostatectomy specimens and appear to have little effect on prognosis in surgical series. When a single focus of cancer is found in 1 core, physicians rightly suspect that more foci of cancer are present in the prostate. Assessing the risk in these patients is challenging when determined by the biopsy data alone. To predict the presence of a very low-risk or "indolent" cancer, nomograms have been developed to incorporate clinical stage, Gleason grade, prostate-specific antigen levels, and prostate volume, along with the quantitative analysis of the biopsy results. Transperineal "mapping" or "saturation" biopsies have been advocated to detect cancers missed or underestimated by previous transrectal biopsies. This approach could provide the accurate staging, grading, and tumor localization needed for a focal therapy program. Nevertheless, for men with minimal cancer who are amenable to active surveillance or focal therapy, consensus about the most accurate biopsy strategy has not yet been reached. Imaging, particularly magnetic resonance imaging and magnetic resonance spectroscopic imaging, has been used to assess men with early-stage prostate cancer. Large-volume cancers can be seen reasonably well, but small lesions have been difficult to detect reliably or measure accurately. Factors such as voxel resolution, organ movement, biopsy artifact, and benign changes have limited the consistent estimation of the quantitative tumor volume. Nevertheless, magnetic resonance imaging and magnetic resonance spectroscopic imaging can aid in evaluating patients with prostate cancer being considered for focal therapy by providing additional evidence that the patient does not harbor an otherwise undetected high-risk, aggressive cancer. In some cases, imaging can usefully identify the location of even a limited-sized index cancer. When imaging findings are substantiated by mapping biopsy results, confidence in the accurate characterization of the cancer is enhanced. Correlating the imaging results with tissue changes during and after treatment can be of use in monitoring the ablative effects in the prostate and in assessing for tumor recurrence. More work is necessary before staging studies can uniformly characterize a prostate cancer before therapy, much less reliably identify and locate small-volume cancer within the prostate. However, exploring the role of focal ablation as a therapeutic option for selected men with low-risk, clinically localized, prostate cancer need not await the emergence of perfectly accurate staging studies, any more than the application of radical surgery or radiotherapy have. Modern biopsy strategies, combined with optimal imaging and nomograms to estimate the pathologic stage and risk, taken together, provide a sound basis for the selection of appropriate patients for entry into prospective clinical trials of focal therapy.

Conventional treatments of localized prostate cancer

Established therapeutic approaches for clinically localized prostate cancer include watchful waiting (active surveillance), radical prostatectomy, and radiotherapy. The risk of progression during surveillance is related to the initial cancer stage and grade; reasonable evidence has supported the safety and feasibility, during a period of 5-10 years, of an active surveillance regimen for men with low-risk prostate cancer. The progression rates at >10 years have not yet been studied in modern trials. Patients with low-risk tumor characteristics can be actively monitored without sacrificing the possibility of cure and without being exposed to an undue risk of disease progression, although some patients will not accept the emotional burden of living with an untreated cancer. Focal ablation might be an attractive alternative to active surveillance for some patients with low-risk cancer, if it proves to have minimal adverse effects on their quality of life. Radical prostatectomy is an effective form of therapy for patients with clinically significant prostate cancer; however, outcomes are highly sensitive to variations in surgical technique. Because of the risks of perioperative complications and urinary and sexual dysfunction, which appear to be as great with robotic-assisted prostatectomy as with any other technique, patients with low-risk cancer, especially those >60 years, might be attracted to more conservative alternatives, including active surveillance, radiotherapy, and focal ablation. External beam radiotherapy is an effective, noninvasive form of therapy, but it carries the long-term risks of troublesome bowel and sexual and urinary dysfunction. It might be too aggressive for many low-risk cancers detected in screened populations. For more aggressive cancers, local recurrence after radiotherapy carries substantial morbidity and low rates of long-term cancer control. Brachytherapy, a convenient, effective form of radiotherapy, is targeted at selected patients with clinically confined cancer and a prostate size of <60 g without evidence of extraprostatic extension on imaging. However, excellent outcomes require meticulous technique; acute urinary symptoms are frequent; and the long-term risks of proctitis and erectile dysfunction are comparable to the risks associated with external beam radiotherapy. Androgen-deprivation therapy is not recommended for men with localized prostate cancer who would otherwise be candidates for surgery or radiotherapy, because, even with short-term use, the risk of side effects, including osteopenic fracture and major cardiovascular events, serious. For locally extensive cancer, androgen-deprivation therapy should be used alone only for the relief of local symptoms in men with a life expectancy of <5 years who are not eligible for more aggressive treatment.

Adjuvant and neoadjuvant therapy in renal cell carcinoma

A number of patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) are faced with the knowledge that, despite undergoing nephrectomy, they have a substantial risk of disease recurrence. Prior efforts to decrease recurrence risk using immunotherapy have largely been ineffective. The reasons for the failure of immunotherapy are not clear, as our ability to measure immunological outcomes has not provided us with clues on the determinants which signal a successful antitumor effect.We are now entering the targeted therapy era, and clinical trials are underway to determine whether adjuvant or neoadjuvant targeted therapy strategies are helpful in higher risk patients. Once again, we are faced with a paucity of surrogate markers of success or failure in treating micrometastatic disease, and the absence of a clear understanding of the biology of these agents in the adjuvant setting. As trial information becomes available we will be able to form hypotheses based on clinical observations. In the meantime, it is important that we in parallel develop a conceptual framework that will prepare us to address the questions that will inevitably arise from our experience with these agents. Additional questions arise about timing or therapy in the high risk setting. If an effective treatment exists, should it be given before or after nephrectomy? Potential strategies to answer these questions are outlined in the manuscript.

Prognostic Significance of Disseminated Tumor Cells in the Bone Marrow of Prostate Cancer Patients Treated With Neoadjuvant Hormone Treatment

Purpose

To explore whether the presence of occult disseminated tumor cells (DTCs) in the bone marrow before neoadjuvant hormone therapy influences the prognosis of patients with organ confined prostate cancer treated by radical prostatectomy.

Patients and Methods

Pretreatment bone marrow aspirates from 193 cT (1-4) pN0M0 prostate cancer patients submitted to neoadjuvant hormone therapy (mean, 8 months) followed by radical prostatectomy were immunohistochemically evaluated by anticytokeratin antibody A45-B/B3 previously validated for the detection of DTCs. Bone marrow status was compared with established clinical and histopathologic risk parameters. Patients’ outcome was evaluated using prostate-specific antigen (PSA) blood serum measurements as surrogate marker for recurrence over a median follow-up of 44 months.

Results

DTCs were detected in 44.6% of patients. Bone marrow status neither correlated with tumor grade and stage, nor with the pretreatment PSA risk category (all P values > .05). In the univariate Kaplan-Meier analysis, the presence of DTCs was a significant prognostic factor with respect to poor PSA progression-free survival (log-rank test P = .0035). Using a multivariable piecewise Cox regression model, the presence of DTCs was an independent predictor of PSA relapse (relative risk 1.82; P = .014).

Conclusion

The presence of DTCs in the bone marrow of patients with prostate cancer before neoadjuvant hormone therapy and subsequent surgery represents an independent prognostic parameter, suggesting that DTCs may contribute to the failure of current neoadjuvant hormone therapy regimens.

Inventory of prostate cancer predictive tools

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

We created an inventory of current predictive tools available for prostate cancer. This review may serve as an initial step toward a comprehensive reference guide for physicians to locate published nomograms that apply to the clinical decision in question. Using MEDLINE a literature search was performed on prostate cancer predictive tools from January 1966 to November 2007. We describe the patient populations to which they apply and the outcomes predicted, and record their individual characteristics.

RECENT FINDINGS

The literature search generated 111 published prediction tools that may be applied to patients in various clinical stages of disease. Of the 111 prediction tools, only 69 had undergone validation. We present an inventory of models with input variables, prediction form, number of patients used to develop the prediction tools, the outcome being predicted, prediction tool-specific features, predictive accuracy, and whether validation was performed.

SUMMARY

Decision rules, such as nomograms, provide evidence-based and at the same time individualized predictions of the outcome of interest. Such predictions have been repeatedly shown to be more accurate than those of clinicians, regardless of their level of expertise. Accurate risk estimates are also required for clinical trial design, to ensure homogeneous high-risk patient groups for whom new cancer therapeutics will be investigated.

Blood biomarkers for prostate cancer detection and prognosis

Prostate cancer is the most non-cutaneous malignancy diagnosed in men in the USA. The discovery of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) revolutionized prostate cancer diagnosis and management in the 1990s. Despite its remarkable performance as a marker for prostate cancer, PSA is not prostate cancer specific. PSA can be released by normal as well as hyperplastic prostate cells, which undermines the specificity of PSA for prostate cancer diagnosis. Hence, there is a need for new biomarkers that can detect prostate cancer and, in addition, distinguish indolent from biologically aggressive cancers. Moreover, the emergence of new therapeutic approaches for prostate cancer cannot flourish without a more reliable set of markers to serve as prognosticators, targets and surrogate end points of disease progression and response to treatment. As the most useful clinical biomarkers are likely to be those assayed from blood, there is an increasing interest in profiling blood proteins. With recent advances in biotechnology such as high-throughput molecular analyses, many potential blood biomarkers have been identified and are currently under investigation.

Is there a role for positron emission tomography imaging in the early evaluation of prostate cancer relapse?

The patient population with a rising prostate specific antigen (PSA) post-therapy with no evidence of disease on standard imaging studies currently represents the second largest group of prostate cancer patients. Little information is still available regarding the specificity and sensitivity of positron emission tomography (PET) tracers in the assessment of early biochemical recurrence. Ideally, PET imaging would allow one to accurately discriminate between local vs nodal vs distant relapse, thus enabling appropriate selection of patients for salvage local therapy. The vast majority of studies show a relatively poor yield of positive scans with PSA values < 4 ng ml(-1). So far, no tracer has been shown to be able to detect local recurrence within the clinically useful 1 ng ml(-1) PSA threshold, clearly limiting the use of PET imaging in the post-surgical setting. Preliminary evidence, however, suggests that 11C-choline PET may be useful in selecting out patients with early biochemical relapse (PSA < 2 ng ml(-1)) who have pelvic nodal oligometastasis potentially amenable to local treatment. The role of PET imaging in prostate cancer is gradually evolving but still remains within the experimental realm. Well-conducted studies comparing the merits of different tracers are needed.

Clinicians are poor raters of life-expectancy before radical prostatectomy or definitive radiotherapy for localized prostate cancer

OBJECTIVE

To test the accuracy of predicting life-expectancy (LE) among 19 raters, as the accurate prediction of LE in candidates for definitive therapy for localized prostate cancer is crucial, and little is known of the ability of clinicians to predict LE.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

We randomly selected the case-vignettes of 50 patients treated with either radical prostatectomy (RP, 25) or external beam radiotherapy (EBRT, 25) for prostate cancer, and who either survived for > 10 years or died earlier with no evidence of disease relapse. The median age at treatment was 67 years and the median Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) was 2. The raters consisted of urology staff (six), urology residents (10) and medical students (three). The case-vignettes included patient age, comorbidities and CCI score, and raters were asked to predict the survival at 10 years (yes vs no), assuming no disease relapse.

RESULTS

Of the 50 cases, 20 (40%) did not survive for > 10 years; clinicians estimated a mean (range) of 23 (10-35) deaths before 10 years. The mean (95% confidence interval) overall predictive accuracy (0.5 = chance, 1.0 = perfect prediction) of LE predictions was 0.68 (0.64-0.71). Individual accuracy ranged from 0.52 (staff) to 0.78 (staff). There were no important differences among the rater groups (residents 0.69 vs staff 0.67 vs medical students 0.67).

CONCLUSIONS

Clinicians are relatively poor at predicting LE; tools to predict LE might be able to improve clinicians' performance in this important part of decision-making about prostate cancer treatment. It remains to be determined whether this limitation exclusively applies to prostate cancer or also to other malignancies.

The use and abuse of data: nomograms and talking to patients about clinical medicine

OBJECTIVE

To review the development of nomograms and consortia efforts applying these tools to model outcome predictions associated with radical cystectomy.

FINDINGS

Nomograms have been developed that provide individualized prediction of recurrence and survival following radical cystectomy, which provide significant improvement in predictive accuracy over tradition TNM staging.

CONCLUSIONS

Nomograms provide individualized risk assessment and outperform expert physician and conventional models used to predict outcome. Addition of biologic markers may improve predictive capability and improve the clinical utility of these valuable tools.

NMR-based metabolomics approach to target biomarkers for human prostate cancer

In the era of genomics and proteomics, metabolomics offers a unique way to probe the underlying biochemistry of malignant transformations. In the context of oncological metabolomics, the study of the global variation of metabolites involved in the development and progression of cancers, few existing techniques offer as much potential to discover biomarkers as nuclear magnetic resonance techniques. The most fundamental magnetic resonance methodologies with regard to human prostate cancer are magnetic resonance spectroscopy and magnetic resonance spectroscopic imaging. Recent in vivo explorations have examined crucial metabolites that may indicate cancerous lesions and have the potential to direct treatment; while ex vivo studies of prostatic fluids and tissues have defined novel diagnostic parameters and indicated that magnetic resonance methodologies will be paramount in future prostate cancer management.

Predicting the outcome of salvage radiation therapy for recurrent prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy

PURPOSE

An increasing serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level is the initial sign of recurrent prostate cancer among patients treated with radical prostatectomy. Salvage radiation therapy (SRT) may eradicate locally recurrent cancer, but studies to distinguish local from systemic recurrence lack adequate sensitivity and specificity. We developed a nomogram to predict the probability of cancer control at 6 years after SRT for PSA-defined recurrence.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Using multivariable Cox regression analysis, we constructed a model to predict the probability of disease progression after SRT in a multi-institutional cohort of 1,540 patients.

RESULTS

The 6-year progression-free probability was 32% (95% CI, 28% to 35%) overall. Forty-eight percent (95% CI, 40% to 56%) of patients treated with SRT alone at PSA levels of 0.50 ng/mL or lower were disease free at 6 years, including 41% (95% CI, 31% to 51%) who also had a PSA doubling time of 10 months or less or poorly differentiated (Gleason grade 8 to 10) cancer. Significant variables in the model were PSA level before SRT (P < .001), prostatectomy Gleason grade (P < .001), PSA doubling time (P < .001), surgical margins (P < .001), androgen-deprivation therapy before or during SRT (P < .001), and lymph node metastasis (P = .019). The resultant nomogram was internally validated and had a concordance index of 0.69.

CONCLUSION

Nearly half of patients with recurrent prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy have a long-term PSA response to SRT when treatment is administered at the earliest sign of recurrence. The nomogram we developed predicts the outcome of SRT and should prove valuable for medical decision making for patients with a rising PSA level.

Prognostic factors in prostate cancer

In the nineteenth century the main goal of medicine was predictive: diagnose the disease and achieve a satisfying prognosis of the patient's chances. Today the effort has shifted to cure the disease. Since the twentieth century, the word prognosis has also been used in nonmedical contexts, for example in corporate finance or elections. The most accurate form of prognosis is achieved statistically. Based on different prognostic factors it should be possible to tell patients how they are expected to do after prostate cancer has been diagnosed and how different treatments may change this outcome. A prognosis is a prediction. The word prognosis comes from the Greek word (see text) and means foreknowing. In the nineteenth century this was the main goal of medicine: diagnose the disease and achieve a satisfying prognosis of the patient's chances. Today the effort has shifted towards seeking a cure. Prognostic factors in (prostate) cancer are defined as "variables that can account for some of the heterogeneity associated with the expected course and outcome of a disease". Bailey defined prognosis as "a reasoned forecast concerning the course, pattern, progression, duration, and end of the disease. Prognostic factors are not only essential to understand the natural history and the course of the disease, but also to predict possible different outcomes of different treatments or perhaps no treatment at all. This is extremely important in a disease like prostate cancer where there is clear evidence that a substantial number of cases discovered by prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing are unlikely ever to become clinically significant, not to mention mortal. Furthermore, prognostic factors are of paramount importance for correct interpretation of clinical trials and for the construction of future trials. Finally, according to WHO national screening committee criteria for implementing a national screening programme, widely accepted prognostic factors must be defined before assessing screening.

Role of nomograms for prostate cancer in 2007

Nomograms have been developed to predict prostate cancer (PCa) related outcomes. We report what has been achieved and what can be expected in 2007 and in the future. We reviewed the literature to provide guidelines in terms of criteria, limitations and clinical value of nomograms in 2007. Further, we report a set of recent PCa nomograms, where certain criteria are listed which were used to develop each nomogram. Our findings suggest a demand for an update of nomograms as well as head-to-head comparisons to determine the best-suited model in select fields of PCa outcomes. In 2007 and the future, an increasing number of nomograms will address important endpoints such as PSA recurrence, local and distant metastases, or androgen-independent PCa-specific survival. Our results suggest that nomograms represent valid risk stratification models to achieve most accurate predictions. In 2007 and the future, more specific and refined nomograms will be available which address relevant clinical end points. Moreover, novel markers in PCa outcomes will be quantified using the nomogram approach.

Single nucleotide polymorphisms: early diagnosis and risk assessment in genitourinary malignancy

Genetic screening for malignancy has been limited to high-risk individuals with a strong hereditary predisposition to cancer. With the cloning of the human genome, it has become apparent that genetic anomalies are not limited to high-risk individuals; more than 10 million genetic variants exist. Because the vast majority of these genetic variants have no functional significance, current efforts are focused on identification of which impact cancer development and/or progression. Here, we review the rationale for studying polymorphic variants in urologic malignancies, prior studies in the field, and future avenues of research.

ADAM15 disintegrin is associated with aggressive prostate and breast cancer disease

The aim of the current study was to evaluate the expression of ADAM15 disintegrin (ADAM15) in a broad spectrum of human tumors. The transcript for ADAM15 was found to be highly upregulated in a variety of tumor cDNA expression arrays. ADAM15 protein expression was examined in tissue microarrays (TMAs) consisting of 638 tissue cores. TMA analysis revealed that ADAM15 protein was significantly increased in multiple types of adenocarcinoma, specifically in prostate and breast cancer specimens. Statistical association was observed with disease progression within clinical parameters of predictive outcome for both prostate and breast cancers, pertaining to Gleason sum and angioinvasion, respectively. In this report, we also present data from a cDNA microarray of prostate cancer (PCa), where we compared transfected LNCaP cells that overexpress ADAM15 to vector control cells. In these experiments, we found that ADAM15 expression was associated with the induction of specific proteases and protease inhibitors, particularly tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 2, as validated in a separate PCa TMA. These results suggest that ADAM15 is generally overexpressed in adenocarcinoma and is highly associated with metastatic progression of prostate and breast cancers.

Prostate cancer nomograms: an update

OBJECTIVE

Several nomograms have been developed to predict outcomes related to prostate cancer (PCa).

METHODS

We provide a descriptive and an analytic comparison of nomograms. Further, we report a set of recent PCa nomograms, in which we recorded predictor variables, number of patients used to develop each nomogram, and nomogram-specific features. Moreover, accuracy estimates and type of validation are considered.

RESULTS

Our findings suggest a demand for updated nomograms in selected fields of PCa outcomes. Moreover, an increasing number of nomograms address important end points such as prostate-specific antigen recurrence, distant metastases, or androgen-independent PCa-specific survival.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that nomograms are available for many PCa-related outcomes. They represent a valid methodologic approach if correct criteria are met.

Prediction of Postoperative Sexual Function After Nerve Sparing Radical Retropubic Prostatectomy

PURPOSE

Preservation of sexual function is one of the main objectives in radical prostatectomy. We assessed possible predictive factors for postoperative sexual function including preoperative International Index of Erectile Function score, age and extent of nerve sparing procedures for more precise preoperative counseling of patients undergoing radical prostatectomy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Between January 2000 and December 2001 a total of 694 patients with clinically organ confined prostate cancer underwent nerve sparing radical prostatectomy. Preoperative erectile function was assessed with the International Index of Erectile Function score. After at least 12 months of followup patients were asked to answer the International Index of Erectile Function and Quality of Life Questionnaire C 30 via mail.

RESULTS

A total of 411 patients responded to the questionnaire, 122 of whom underwent unilateral nerve sparing radical prostatectomy and 289 underwent bilateral nerve sparing radical prostatectomy. Data on preoperative and postoperative International Index of Erectile Function scores were available for 389 patients. Data on the International Index of Erectile Function and the postoperative Quality of Life Questionnaire C 30 were available for 382 patients. The median decrease in International Index of Erectile Function score was 7 points. Patients undergoing unilateral nerve sparing radical prostatectomy had a significantly stronger decrease in International Index of Erectile Function score compared to patients undergoing the bilateral nerve sparing procedure (12 vs 6 points). Preoperative International Index of Erectile Function score and extent of nerve sparing (unilateral vs bilateral nerve sparing radical prostatectomy) were significantly associated with better postoperative sexual function whereas age was not. Based on preoperative International Index of Erectile Function score, surgical technique and age, the likelihood of postoperative satisfactory erectile function can be defined preoperatively.

CONCLUSIONS

We confirmed the impact of the extent of nerve sparing (unilateral vs bilateral nerve sparing radical prostatectomy) and highlighted the effect of preoperative erectile function as measured by the International Index of Erectile Function and age at surgery on postoperative sexual function. Our data can be used for counseling patients undergoing radical nerve sparing prostatectomy regarding recovery of erectile function.

Using prostate-specific antigen screening and nomograms to assess risk and predict outcomes in the management of prostate cancer

We review the role of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and the importance of patient education in the management of prostate cancer, based on discussions held at a European symposium on managing prostate cancer. Although PSA is the most widely used serum marker for detecting prostate cancer and for monitoring treatment responses, its use as a diagnostic marker is controversial due to concerns of over-diagnosis and low specificity. PSA isoforms, as well as PSA doubling time, might improve the specificity for earlier prostate cancer detection and can be used as surrogate markers for treatment efficacy. Patients can differ considerably in the importance they place on health-related quality of life aspects and fear of cancer progression. Consequently, there needs to be active, educated discussion of risk and outcomes between physicians and patients. Risk assessment tools, e.g. validated nomograms, enable clinicians to improve their decision analysis and form the basis for subsequent discussion of treatment options between the physician and patient, thereby enabling informed consent and appropriate decision-making.

Preoperative nomogram predicting the 10-year probability of prostate cancer recurrence after radical prostatectomy

An existing preoperative nomogram predicts the probability of prostate cancer recurrence, defined by prostate-specific antigen (PSA), at 5 years after radical prostatectomy based on clinical stage, serum PSA, and biopsy Gleason grade. In an updated and enhanced nomogram, we have extended the predictions to 10 years, added the prognostic information of systematic biopsy results, and enabled the predictions to be adjusted for the year of surgery. Cox regression analysis was used to model the clinical information for 1978 patients treated by two high-volume surgeons from our institution. The nomogram was externally validated on an independent cohort of 1545 patients with a concordance index of 0.79 and was well calibrated with respect to observed outcome. The inclusion of the number of positive and negative biopsy cores enhanced the predictive accuracy of the model. Thus, a new preoperative nomogram provides robust predictions of prostate cancer recurrence up to 10 years after radical prostatectomy.

Prostate-specific antigen doubling time as a prognostic marker in prostate cancer

Prostate cancer has a varied natural history. Men with similar serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels, clinical stages, and histologic features in their tissue specimens can have markedly different outcomes. While prostate cancer is lethal in some patients, most men die with cancer rather than because of it. Moreover, histologically apparent cancer can be found in the prostate glands of approximately 42% of men over 50 years of age who die from other causes, but the lifetime risk that a man in the US will be diagnosed with prostate cancer is estimated to be 11% and the risk of dying from the disease is only 3.1%. Consequently, appropriate disease management requires risk assessment. How likely is it that a given man's cancer will progress or metastasize over his remaining lifetime? What is the probability of successful treatment? What are the risks of adverse effects and complications of each treatment? Physicians use a variety of clinical and pathologic parameters to assess the risk that a given cancer poses to an individual patient. In addition to the accepted parameters of serum PSA level, clinical staging, and pathologic grading and staging, PSA doubling time has emerged as an important factor in the evaluation of men with newly diagnosed prostate cancer or prostate cancer that recurs after treatment. PSA doubling time can also be used as a surrogate marker for prostate cancer-specific death. This review summarizes current knowledge regarding the role of PSA doubling time as a prognostic marker in men with prostate cancer.

Prognostic and predictive factors in prostate cancer: historical perspectives and recent international consensus initiatives

An understanding of prognosis in cancer medicine is important for patient care, research and cancer control programs. In prostate cancer, prognostic (predictive) factors are particularly important given the marked heterogeneity of this disease at clinical, morphologic and biomolecular levels. Clinical stage and histologic grade have historically played major roles in defining heterogeneity in prostate cancer. More recently, serum prostate-specific antigen measurement has assumed a significant prognostic role. Over the last two decades there has been an explosion of research into biomarkers, many of which have been purported to have prognostic significance. In this paper we present an overview of the various consensus initiatives that have transpired over the last dozen years. Criteria for evaluating prognostic factors and classifications of predictive factors have emerged that have proven useful and advanced our understanding of the biology of prostate cancer. The results of these consensus initiatives form a foundation on which the current international consultation on prognosis (prediction) in prostate cancer is built. Advances in our understanding of the new and promising prognostic factors will require a more rigorous evidence-based approach to the analysis of published studies. Furthermore, appropriate mathematical models for the analysis of the multiple factors that influence a prognostic system will have to be employed.

What Information are Urologists Extracting from Prostate Needle Biopsy Reports and What do They Need for Clinical Management of Prostate Cancer?

OBJECTIVES

This survey-based study examines what information urologists are extracting from prostate needle biopsy reports, and what they need for clinical management of prostate cancer (PC) patients.

METHODS

A questionnaire was used to investigate several topics related to PC biopsy reporting. Two different clinical situations were separately explored, depending on whether the urologist intended a curative or a palliative therapy.

RESULTS

110 of the 300 (37%) urologists responded to the questionnaire and returned anonymous responses. The mean age of respondents was 47.5 years old (range 27-66). On average, they performed 31 (range 0-182) radical prostatectomies per year. Before proposing a curative therapy, several biopsy parameters were requested by the majority of respondents, including number of positive biopsies (104/110 or 95%), Gleason score (103/110 or 94%), highest Gleason grade (94/110 or 85%), localization of positive biopsies (80/110 or 73%), length of tumor on biopsy (58/110 or 53%), presence of extraprostatic extension (66/110 or 60%). In a palliative situation, only three parameters were requested by the majority of respondents: Gleason score (101/110 or 92%), highest Gleason grade (67/110 or 61%) and number of positive biopsies (59/110 or 54%). In prostate needle biopsies harboring cancer on multiple cores from separately designated locations, 77% (68/88) of respondents used the highest Gleason score, regardless of the overall percentage involvement, to determine their treatment plan. PIN (Prostatic Intraepithelial Neoplasia) on biopsy without PC was considered sufficient to re-biopsy by 77% (85/110) of respondents. Thirty six percent (40/110) of the respondents considered ASAP (Atypical Small Acinar Proliferation) to be equivalent to PIN. There was no significant association between the demographic data and the type of information requested on the biopsy report.

CONCLUSIONS

In this sample of 110 French and Belgian urologists there was high variability in the way clinicians use prostate needle biopsy pathology report. Results of this survey should improve communication between urologists and pathologists and should help evaluate what data should be included in routine pathology reports.

Integration of gene expression profiling and clinical variables to predict prostate carcinoma recurrence after radical prostatectomy

BACKGROUND

Gene expression profiling of prostate carcinoma offers an alternative means to distinguish aggressive tumor biology and may improve the accuracy of outcome prediction for patients with prostate carcinoma treated by radical prostatectomy.

METHODS

Gene expression differences between 37 recurrent and 42 nonrecurrent primary prostate tumor specimens were analyzed by oligonucleotide microarrays. Two logistic regression modeling approaches were used to predict prostate carcinoma recurrence after radical prostatectomy. One approach was based exclusively on gene expression differences between the two classes. The second approach integrated prognostic gene variables with a validated postoperative predictive model based on standard variables (nomogram). The predictive accuracy of these modeling approaches was evaluated by leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) and compared with the nomogram.

RESULTS

The modeling approach using gene variables alone accurately classified 59 (75%) tissue samples in LOOCV, a classification rate substantially higher than expected by chance. However, this predictive accuracy was inferior to the nomogram (concordance index, 0.75 vs. 0.84, P = 0.01). Models combining clinical and gene variables accurately classified 70 (89%) tissue samples and the predictive accuracy using this approach (concordance index, 0.89) was superior to the nomogram (P = 0.009) and models based on gene variables alone (P < 0.001). Importantly, the combined approach provided a marked improvement for patients whose nomogram-predicted likelihood of disease recurrence was in the indeterminate range (7-year disease progression-free probability, 30-70%; concordance index, 0.83 vs. 0.59, P = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Integration of gene expression signatures and clinical variables produced predictive models for prostate carcinoma recurrence that perform significantly better than those based on either clinical variables or gene expression information alone.

Assessment of a fragment of e-cadherin as a serum biomarker with predictive value for prostate cancer

In prostate cancer, biomarkers may provide additional value above standard clinical and pathology parameters to predict outcome after specific therapy. The purpose of this study is to evaluate an 80 kDa fragment of the cell adhesion molecule e-cadherin as a serum biomarker. A broad spectrum of prostate cancer serum samples, representing different stages of prostate cancer disease, including benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH), localised (Loc PCA) and metastatic prostate cancer (Met PCA), was examined for the cleaved product. There is a significant difference in the expression level of the 80 kDa fragment in the serum of healthy individuals vs patients with BPH and between BPH vs Loc PCA and Met PCA (P<0.001). Highest expression levels are observed in advanced metastatic disease. In the cohort of Loc PCA cases, there was no association between the 80 kDa serum concentration and clinical parameters. Interestingly, patients with an 80 kDa level of >7.9 μg l⁻¹ at the time of diagnosis have a 55-fold higher risk of biochemical failure after surgery compared to those with lower levels. This is the first report of the application of an 80 kDa fragment of e-cadherin as a serum biomarker in a broad spectrum of prostate cancer cases. At an optimised cutoff, high expression at the time of diagnosis is associated with a significantly increased risk of biochemical failure, potentially supporting its use for a tailored follow-up protocol for those patients.

Relative importance of PSA in prostate cancer treatment

METHODS AND MATERIALS

A retrospective study was conducted to (1) determine the relationship between baseline prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels and initial treatment decisions for prostate cancer (surgery, hormone therapy, radiation, or watchful waiting) and (2) estimate the impact of PSA progression (doubling or three consecutive rises) on subsequent treatment decisions. Patient records (n=1116) from three community urology practices and a large academic health system were reviewed. Multivariate models were fitted to assess the relationship between initial treatment and baseline PSA, Gleason score, race, number of comorbid conditions and age and between PSA progression and time to subsequent therapy (adjusted for other factors).

RESULTS

Baseline PSA was a significant predictor of initial treatment among men with localized disease with the likelihood of hormone therapy increasing with higher PSA levels and the likelihood of surgery decreasing steadily with higher PSA levels. PSA was the strongest predictor of hormone therapy as first choice followed by age. Age followed by PSA was the strongest predictor of surgery as first treatment as well as radiation therapy. Initial PSA levels did not predict the choice of watchful waiting. Patients with PSA progression were eight times (95% CI: 5.3-12.1) more likely to initiate a subsequent therapy than patients who did not have PSA progression when controlling for other predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

In clinical practice, PSA significantly impacts the urologist's primary therapy choice and determines when they introduce subsequent treatments.

External beam radiotherapy as curative treatment of prostate cancer

External beam radiotherapy (RT) has been used as a curative treatment of prostate cancer for more than 5 decades, with the "modern" era emerging more than 3 decades ago. Its history is marked by gradual improvements punctuated by several quantum leaps that are increasingly driven by advancements in the computer and imaging sciences and by its integration with complementary forms of treatment. Consequently, the contemporary use of external beam RT barely resembles its earliest form, and this must be appreciated in the context of current patient care. The influence of predictive factors on the use and outcomes of external beam RT is presented, as is a selected review of the methods and outcomes of external beam RT as a single therapeutic intervention, in association with androgen suppression, or as a postoperative adjunct. Thus, the "state of the (radiotherapeutic) art" is presented to enhance the understanding of this treatment approach with the hope that this information will serve as a useful resource to physicians as they care for patients with prostate cancer.

An update on randomized clinical trials in localized and locoregional prostate cancer

It is important that treatment decisions be based upon scientific data, as opposed to anecdotal experience and expert opinion. The goal of this article is to provide an update on phase III clinical trials in localized and locoregional prostate cancer. Studies comparing surgery and observation for localized disease are reviewed, as are studies comparing various forms of radiotherapy. The effectiveness of certain neoadjuvant and adjuvant therapies is also addressed. Although there are numerous phase III studies ongoing in these areas, there are still large gaps in our understanding of the treatment of localized disease, and additional clinical trials are needed.