Physical activity does not influence obesity risk: time to clarify the public health message

Accelerometer-measured physical activity is not associated with two-year weight change in African-origin adults from five diverse populations

Background

Increasing population-levels of physical activity (PA) is a controversial strategy for managing the obesity epidemic, given the conflicting evidence for weight loss from PA alone per se. We measured PA and weight change in a three-year prospective cohort study in young adults from five countries (Ghana, South Africa, Jamaica, Seychelles and USA).

Methods

A total of 1,944 men and women had baseline data, and at least 1 follow-up examination including measures of anthropometry (weight/BMI), and objective PA (accelerometer, 7-day) following the three-year study period. PA was explored as 1-minute bouts of moderate and vigorous PA (MVPA) as well as daily sedentary time.

Results

At baseline; Ghanaian and South African men had the lowest body weights (63.4 ± 9.5, 64.9 ± 11.8 kg, respectively) and men and women from the USA the highest (93.6 ± 25.9, 91.7 ± 23.4 kg, respectively). Prevalence of normal weight ranged from 85% in Ghanaian men to 29% in USA men and 52% in Ghanaian women to 15% in USA women. Over the two-year follow-up period, USA men and Jamaican women experienced the smallest yearly weight change rate (0.1 ± 3.3 kg/yr; −0.03 ± 3.0 kg/yr, respectively), compared to South African men and Ghanaian women greatest yearly change (0.6.0 ± 3.0 kg/yr; 1.22 ± 2.6 kg/yr, respectively). Mean yearly weight gain tended to be larger among normal weight participants at baseline than overweight/obese at baseline. Neither baseline MVPA nor sedentary time were associated with weight gain. Using multiple linear regression, only baseline weight, age and gender were significantly associated with weight gain.

Discussion

From our study it is not evident that higher volumes of PA alone are protective against future weight gain, and by deduction our data suggest that other environmental factors such as the food environment may have a more critical role.

Obesity and energy balance: What is the role of physical activity?

Despite billions of dollars spent over decades of research, debate remains over the causes and solutions of the obesity epidemic. The specific role of physical activity in the prevention or treatment of obesity seems a particularly contentious issue, with opposing views put forth in both academic and popular media. In an attempt to provide context and clarity to the specific question of the role of physical activity in determination of body weight, we have attempted to identify evidence or lack thereof in the scientific literature and provide a summary of our findings. Areas covered: Topics included in this narrative review are an overview of energy balance, the relationship between physical activity and energy expenditure, compensatory responses in non-exercise energy expenditure and energy intake, and the relationship between physical activity and obesity. Expert commentary: Based on a review of the existing literature, daily physical activity and structured exercise has beneficial effects on an individual's body weight. In most instances, exercise occurring in adequate amounts will increase total daily energy expenditure and create an acute energy deficit, without compensatory decreases in non-exercise physical activity or energy expenditure nor compensatory increases in energy intake. Several gaps in the literature exist, both in terms of the number of adequately powered clinical trials with rigorous assessments of both energy intake and expenditure, and with a variety of study populations (by age, sex, race, etc.) and with varying exercise volumes and intensities.

Characterizing physical activity and food urban environments: a GIS-based multicomponent proposal

BACKGROUND

Healthier urban environments influence the distribution of cardiovascular risk factors. Our aim was to design and implement a multicomponent method based on Geographic Information Systems to characterize and evaluate environmental correlates of obesity: the food and the physical activity urban environments.

METHODS

Study location comprised a socio-demographically average urban area of 12 contiguous census sections (≈16,000 residents), in Madrid, Spain. We conducted on-field audits on all food stores and street segments. We designed a synthetic index integrating continuous measures of both environments, by kernel density analyses. Index ranges from 0 to 100 (least-most healthy).

RESULTS

We found a heterogeneous distribution with 75 and 50 % of the area scoring less than 36.8 and 25.5, respectively. Census sections of study area were categorized by Jenks intervals as high, medium-high, medium-low and low. 41.0 % of residents lived in an area with a low score, 23.6 % medium-low and 31.1 % medium-high and 4.2 % in a high.

CONCLUSION

The proposed synthetic index may be a relevant tool to inform urban health interventions, providing a feasible way to integrate different measures of barriers and facilitators of healthy urban environments in terms of food and physical activity.

Harnessing adolescent values to motivate healthier eating

What can be done to reduce unhealthy eating among adolescents? It was hypothesized that aligning healthy eating with important and widely shared adolescent values would produce the needed motivation. A double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled experiment with eighth graders (total n = 536) evaluated the impact of a treatment that framed healthy eating as consistent with the adolescent values of autonomy from adult control and the pursuit of social justice. Healthy eating was suggested as a way to take a stand against manipulative and unfair practices of the food industry, such as engineering junk food to make it addictive and marketing it to young children. Compared with traditional health education materials or to a non-food-related control, this treatment led eighth graders to see healthy eating as more autonomy-assertive and social justice-oriented behavior and to forgo sugary snacks and drinks in favor of healthier options a day later in an unrelated context. Public health interventions for adolescents may be more effective when they harness the motivational power of that group's existing strongly held values.

The role of physical activity and exercise in obesity and weight management: Time for critical appraisal

The prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased dramatically during last 3 decades with devastating consequences to public health. Recommended strategies to reduce obesity have focused on healthier diet and physical activity (PA). Clearly, these approaches have not been successful, but whether this is due to failure to restrict energy intake or to maintain high levels of energy expenditure has been the subject of great controversy. Consequently, there has been a great deal of confusion about the role of PA and exercise in obesity and weight management. In this article, the theoretical basis for considering reduced PA and energy expenditure as the cause of obesity is appraised. Further, the role of PA in food intake and weight control is examined. The idea that obesity is caused by consistent decline in daily energy expenditure is not supported either by objective measures of energy expenditure or physiological theory of weight gain alone. However, since voluntary exercise is the most important discretionary component of total daily energy expenditure, it can affect energy balance. Therefore, PA and exercise hold potential as part of the solution for the ongoing obesity epidemic.

Long-term Effects of Physical Activity Level on Changes in Healthy Body Mass Index Over 12 Years in Young Adult Women

OBJECTIVES

To examine the effects of overall level and timing of physical activity (PA) on changes from a healthy body mass index (BMI) category over 12 years in young adult women.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (younger cohort, born 1973-1978) completed surveys between 2000 (age 22-27 years) and 2012 (age 34-39 years). Physical activity was measured in 2000, 2003, 2006, and 2009 and was categorized as very low, low, active, or very active at each survey, and a cumulative PA score for this 9-year period was created. Logistic regression was used to examine relationships between PA accumulated across all surveys (cumulative PA model) and PA at each survey (critical periods PA model), with change in BMI category (from healthy to overweight or healthy to obese) from 2000 to 2012.

RESULTS

In women with a healthy BMI in 2000, there were clear dose-response relationships between accumulated PA and transition to overweight (P=.03) and obesity (P<.01) between 2000 and 2012. The critical periods analysis indicated that very active levels of PA at the 2006 survey (when the women were 28-33 years old) and active or very active PA at the 2009 survey (age 31-36 years) were most protective against transitioning to overweight and obesity.

CONCLUSION

These findings confirm that maintenance of very high PA levels throughout young adulthood will significantly reduce the risk of becoming overweight or obese. There seems to be a critical period for maintaining high levels of activity at the life stage when many women face competing demands of caring for infants and young children.

Determinants of change in body weight and body fat distribution over 5.5 years in a sample of free-living black South African women

Objective

To identify socio-demographic and lifestyle determinants of weight gain in a sample of premenopasual black South African (SA) women.

Methods

Changes in body composition (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, computerised tomography), socio-economic status (SES) and behavioural/lifestyle factors were measured in 64 black SA women at baseline (27 ± 8 years) and after 5.5 years.

Results

A lower body mass index (BMI) and nulliparity, together with access to sanitation, were significant determinants of weight gain and change in body fat distribution over 5.5 years. In addition, younger women increased their body weight more than their older counterparts, but this association was not independent of other determinants.

Conclusion

Further research is required to examine the effect of changing SES, as well as the full impact of childbearing on weight gain over time in younger women with lower BMIs. This information will suggest areas for possible intervention to prevent long-term weight gain in these women.

Not very NICE: deviance, stigma and nutritional guidelines related to healthy weight and obesity

This paper critically examines the current National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence and National Health Service guidelines on weight management and the avoidance of obesity (NG7). We demonstrate that the guidance is unlikely to produce the desired effect of enabling people to reduce or control their weight through the twin strategies of dieting (primarily using the calories-in, calories-out approach) and increasing their levels of exercise. The paper provides a critical examination of these guidelines and concludes that they are unlikely to encourage maintenance of 'healthy' weights or prevent obesity, are not based upon particularly strong evidence and are misguided in maintaining a persistent focus upon weight rather than other indicators of health. Moreover, we suggest their promotion may produce a number of unintended consequences, including perpetuating body-related stigmatisation and anxieties. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluation of the ability of three physical activity monitors to predict weight change and estimate energy expenditure

Activity monitors such as the Actical accelerometer, the Sensewear armband, and the Intelligent Device for Energy Expenditure and Activity (IDEEA) are commonly validated against gold standards (e.g., doubly labeled water, or DLW) to determine whether they accurately measure total daily energy expenditure (TEE) or activity energy expenditure (AEE). However, little research has assessed whether these parameters or others (e.g., posture allocation) predict body weight change over time. The aims of this study were to (i) test whether estimated energy expenditure or posture allocation from the devices was associated with weight change during and following a low-calorie diet (LCD) and (ii) compare free-living TEE and AEE predictions from the devices against DLW before weight change. Eighty-seven participants from 2 clinical trials wore 2 of the 3 devices simultaneously for 1 week of a 2-week DLW period. Participants then completed an 8-week LCD and were weighed at the start and end of the LCD and 6 and 12 months after the LCD. More time spent walking at baseline, measured by the IDEEA, significantly predicted greater weight loss during the 8-week LCD. Measures of posture allocation demonstrated medium effect sizes in their relationships with weight change. Bland-Altman analyses indicated that the Sensewear and the IDEEA accurately estimated TEE, and the IDEEA accurately measured AEE. The results suggest that the ability of energy expenditure and posture allocation to predict weight change is limited, and the accuracy of TEE and AEE measurements varies across activity monitoring devices, with multi-sensor monitors demonstrating stronger validity.

Are physical activity, sedentary behaviors and sleep duration associated with body mass index-for-age and health-related quality of life among high school boys and girls?

BACKGROUND

Previous studies reported lower health-related quality of life (HRQOL) scores in overweight and obese adolescents compared to their normal weight counterparts; however, few studies investigated the association between obesity-related behaviors including physical activity and sedentary behaviors and HRQOL in adolescents. This study aimed at investigating the relationship between physical activity, sedentary behaviors, sleep duration and body mass index-for-age (BMI-for-age) and HRQOL among high school Tehranian students.

METHODS

A total of 465 high school students (48.8 % girls) were recruited from three different socio-economic zones in Tehran. The BMI-for-age was determined and physical activity and HRQOL were assessed using validated questionnaires including Quantification de l'Activite Physique en Altitude Chez les Enfants (QAPACE) and Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory (PedsQL) respectively.

RESULTS

Over one third of students (38.5 %) were either overweight or obese. The means of all self- and parent-reported HRQOL scores were significantly lower in girls, compared to boys, except for the parent-reported social functioning subscale. Mean hours of daily sleeping were significantly higher in girls, compared to boys (8.16 ± 1.27 vs. 7.73 ± 1.22 respectively; p < 0.05). Both girls and boys spent more time on sedentary activities than engaging in sport activities. During school and vacation periods, boys had significantly higher daily energy expenditure (DEE) compared to girls (p < 0.05). Only DEE during school period had a significant inverse correlation with BMI-for-age in boys but not girls (r = -0.14, p < 0.05). In addition, self-reported HRQOL scores were significantly associated with weekly hours adolescents spent on videogames/internet, listening to music and reading, watching TV, sports as well as DEE through sex-specific patterns. However according to parents' perspective only weekly hours spent on listening to music and readings and sport activities were significantly associated with their children HRQOL scores.

CONCLUSION

In summary, time spent on physical and sedentary activities were not associated with BMI-for-age, although both of these were associated with the HRQOL of high school students. The potential role of sedentary activities and physical activity should be considered in future interventions aimed at improving HRQOL in adolescents.

Overweight and obesity among women: analysis of demographic and health survey data from 32 Sub-Saharan African Countries

BACKGROUND

Overweight and obesity are risk factors for many chronic diseases globally. However, the extent of the problem in low-income countries like Sub-Saharan Africa is unclear. We assessed the magnitude and disparity of both phenomena by place of residence, level of education and wealth quintile using cross-sectional data from 32 countries.

METHODS

Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data collected in 32 Sub-Saharan African countries between January 2005 and December 2013 were used. A total of 250651 women (aged 15-49 years) were analyzed. Trained personnel using a standardized procedure measured body weight and height. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated by dividing body weight by height squared. Prevalence of overweight (25.0-29.9 kg/m(2)) and obesity (≥ 30.0 kg/m(2)) were estimated for each country. Analysis of the relationships of overweight and obesity with place of residence, education and wealth index were carried out using logistic regression.

RESULTS

The pooled prevalence of overweight for the region was 15.9% (95% CI, 15.7-16.0) with the lowest in Madagascar 5.6% (95% CI, 5.1-6.1) and the highest in Swaziland 27.7% (95% CI, 26.4-29.0). Similarly, the prevalence of obesity was also lowest in Madagascar 1.1% (95% CI, 0.9-1.4) and highest in Swaziland 23.0 (95% CI, 21.8-24.2). The women in urban residence and those who were classified as rich, with respect to the quintile of the wealth index, had higher likelihood of overweight and obesity. In the pooled results, high education was significantly associated with overweight and obesity.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of overweight and obesity varied highly between the countries and wealth index (rich vs. poor) was found to be the strongest predictor in most of the countries. Interventions that will address the socio-cultural barriers to maintaining healthy body size can contribute to curbing the overweight and obesity epidemic in Africa.

Energy flux: staying in energy balance at a high level is necessary to prevent weight gain for most people

Energy flux, the rate of energy conversion from absorption to expenditure or storage, is a critical component of understanding weight management. Individuals who maintain body weight over time have common characteristics including a relatively high level of physical activity and minimal changes in body composition, muscle mass and metabolic rate. A higher state of energy flux resulting from high energy expenditure may provide for a greater 'sensitivity' between energy intake and expenditure. This sensitivity stabilizes body weight by enhancing reciprocal compensation among these components with changes in eating or activity. The energy balance framework suggests that a higher level of energy expenditure requires higher energy intake to maintain body mass. Maintaining energy balance at a higher caloric intake and expenditure should be a more successful long-term strategy for weight maintenance than reduced consumption or extreme caloric restriction at a low level of energy expenditure (a low energy flux) and improve intervention effectiveness for sustainable methods for body weight stability.

Impacts of coordinative training on normal weight and overweight/obese children's attentional performance

This study investigated the efficacy of a physical activity (PA) program to improve the attention span in normal weight vs. overweight/obese children. The study was designed as a cluster-randomized controlled intervention. One hundred fifty-seven normal weight and overweight/obese primary school children were randomly divided in three cohorts: Traditional PA, Coordinative PA and a Control group (not attending any PA). Before and after 5 months of intervention, children were administered the d2-R test of attention. Results showed that participants’ attentional performances were significantly affected by Time (pre vs. post; P < 0.01) and by Time × Group interaction (traditional vs. coordinative vs. control; P < 0.001), revealing significant different effects of intervention/exercise modality on children’s attentional performance, independently of their weight status. These data suggest that a 5-month school-based PA intervention can improve the cognitive performance in children. Further, the Coordinative PA intervention resulted in the most significant improvement in children’s attention.

Maternal exercise before and during pregnancy does not impact offspring exercise or body composition in mice

Background

The genome, the environment, and their interactions simultaneously regulate complex traits such as body composition and voluntary exercise levels. One such environmental influence is the maternal milieu (i.e., in utero environment or maternal care). Variability in the maternal environment may directly impact the mother, and simultaneously has the potential to influence the physiology and/or behavior of offspring in utero, post birth, and into adulthood. Here, we utilized a murine model to examine the effects of the maternal environment in regard to voluntary exercise (absence of wheel running, wheel running prior to gestation, and wheel running prior to and throughout gestation) on offspring weight and body composition (% fat tissue and % lean tissue) throughout development (~3 to ~9 weeks of age). Additionally, we examined the effects of ~6 weeks of maternal exercise (prior to and during gestation) on offspring exercise levels at ~9 weeks of age.

Results

We observed no substantial effects of maternal exercise on subsequent male or female offspring body composition throughout development, or on the propensity of offspring to engage in voluntary wheel running. At the level of the individual, correlational analyses revealed some statistically significant relationships between maternal and offspring exercise levels, likely reflecting previously known heritability estimates for such traits.

Conclusions

The current results conflict with previous findings in human and mouse models demonstrating that maternal exercise has the potential to alter offspring phenotypes. We discuss our negative findings in the context of the timing of the maternal exercise and the level of biological organization of the examined phenotypes within the offspring.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12952-015-0032-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The Influence on Population Weight Gain and Obesity of the Macronutrient Composition and Energy Density of the Food Supply

Rates of overweight and obesity have increased dramatically in all regions of the world over the last few decades. Almost all of the world's population now has ubiquitous access to low-cost, but highly-processed, energy-dense, nutrient-poor food products. These changes in the food supply, rather than decreases in physical activity, are most likely the primary driver of population weight gain and obesity. To-date, the majority of prevention efforts focus on personalised approaches targeting individuals. Population-wide food supply interventions addressing sodium and trans fat reduction have proven highly effective and comparable efforts are now required to target obesity. The evidence suggests that strategies focusing upon reducing the energy density and portion size of foods will be more effective than those targeting specific macronutrients. Government leadership, clearly specified targets, accountability and transparency will be the key to achieving the food supply changes required to address the global obesity epidemic.

Control of Body Weight by Eating Behavior in Children

Diet, exercise, and pharmacological interventions have limited effects in counteracting the worldwide increase in pediatric body weight. Moreover, the promise that individualized drug design will work to induce weight loss appears to be exaggerated. We suggest that the reason for this limited success is that the cause of obesity has been misunderstood. Body weight is mainly under external control; our brain permits us to eat under most circumstances, and unless the financial or physical cost of food is high, eating and body weight increase by default. When energy-rich, inexpensive foods are continually available, people need external support to maintain a healthy body weight. Weight loss can thereby be achieved by continuous feedback on how much and how fast to eat on a computer screen.

Opportunities for intervention strategies for weight management: global actions on fluid intake patterns

Water is an essential nutrient for all physiological functions and particularly important for thermoregulation. About 60% of our body weight is made of water. Under standard conditions (18-20 °C and moderate activity), water balance is regulated within 0.2 % of body weight over a 24-hour period. Water requirement varies between individuals and according to environmental conditions. Concerning considerations related to obesity, the health impact of fluid intake is commonly overlooked. Fluid intake advices are missing in most of food pyramids offered to the public, and water requirements and hydration challenges remain often neglected. The purpose of this paper is to emphasize and discuss the role of water consumption in the context of other important public health measures for weight management. Attention will be focused on fluid intake patterns and hydration-related questions in the context of global interventions and/or physical activity programs settled in weight management protocols.

Estimating diabetes prevalence in Turkey in 2025 with and without possible interventions to reduce obesity and smoking prevalence, using a modelling approach

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study is to estimate the prevalence and the number of people with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in 2025 in Turkey and to evaluate the impact of possible policy options on T2DM prevalence.

METHODS

We developed a model to predict future prevalence of T2DM using trend data for adults aged 25-74 in Turkey from 1997 to 2025. The model integrates population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate the future T2DM prevalence using a Markov approach.

RESULTS

T2DM prevalence was 7.5% (95% CI: 6.0-9.0%) in 1997 increasing to 16.2% (95% CI: 15.5-21.1%) in 2010. The forecasted prevalence for 2025 was 31.5% (28.6% in men and 35.1% in women). If obesity prevalence declines by 10% and smoking decreases by 20% in 10 years from 2010, a 10% relative reduction in diabetes prevalence (1,655,213 individuals) could be achieved by 2025.

CONCLUSIONS

Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge, and our model predicts that its burden will increase significantly over the next two decades. Tackling obesity and other diabetes risk factors needs urgent action.

Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

In 2010, overweight and obesity were estimated to cause 3·4 million deaths, 3·9% of years of life lost, and 3·8% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) worldwide. The rise in obesity has led to widespread calls for regular monitoring of changes in overweight and obesity prevalence in all populations. Comparable, up-to-date information about levels and trends is essential to quantify population health effects and to prompt decision makers to prioritise action. We estimate the global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013.

METHODS

We systematically identified surveys, reports, and published studies (n=1769) that included data for height and weight, both through physical measurements and self-reports. We used mixed effects linear regression to correct for bias in self-reports. We obtained data for prevalence of obesity and overweight by age, sex, country, and year (n=19,244) with a spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression model to estimate prevalence with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

FINDINGS

Worldwide, the proportion of adults with a body-mass index (BMI) of 25 kg/m(2) or greater increased between 1980 and 2013 from 28·8% (95% UI 28·4-29·3) to 36·9% (36·3-37·4) in men, and from 29·8% (29·3-30·2) to 38·0% (37·5-38·5) in women. Prevalence has increased substantially in children and adolescents in developed countries; 23·8% (22·9-24·7) of boys and 22·6% (21·7-23·6) of girls were overweight or obese in 2013. The prevalence of overweight and obesity has also increased in children and adolescents in developing countries, from 8·1% (7·7-8·6) to 12·9% (12·3-13·5) in 2013 for boys and from 8·4% (8·1-8·8) to 13·4% (13·0-13·9) in girls. In adults, estimated prevalence of obesity exceeded 50% in men in Tonga and in women in Kuwait, Kiribati, Federated States of Micronesia, Libya, Qatar, Tonga, and Samoa. Since 2006, the increase in adult obesity in developed countries has slowed down.

INTERPRETATION

Because of the established health risks and substantial increases in prevalence, obesity has become a major global health challenge. Not only is obesity increasing, but no national success stories have been reported in the past 33 years. Urgent global action and leadership is needed to help countries to more effectively intervene.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

In 2010, overweight and obesity were estimated to cause 3·4 million deaths, 3·9% of years of life lost, and 3·8% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) worldwide. The rise in obesity has led to widespread calls for regular monitoring of changes in overweight and obesity prevalence in all populations. Comparable, up-to-date information about levels and trends is essential to quantify population health effects and to prompt decision makers to prioritise action. We estimate the global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013.

METHODS

We systematically identified surveys, reports, and published studies (n=1769) that included data for height and weight, both through physical measurements and self-reports. We used mixed effects linear regression to correct for bias in self-reports. We obtained data for prevalence of obesity and overweight by age, sex, country, and year (n=19,244) with a spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression model to estimate prevalence with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

FINDINGS

Worldwide, the proportion of adults with a body-mass index (BMI) of 25 kg/m(2) or greater increased between 1980 and 2013 from 28·8% (95% UI 28·4-29·3) to 36·9% (36·3-37·4) in men, and from 29·8% (29·3-30·2) to 38·0% (37·5-38·5) in women. Prevalence has increased substantially in children and adolescents in developed countries; 23·8% (22·9-24·7) of boys and 22·6% (21·7-23·6) of girls were overweight or obese in 2013. The prevalence of overweight and obesity has also increased in children and adolescents in developing countries, from 8·1% (7·7-8·6) to 12·9% (12·3-13·5) in 2013 for boys and from 8·4% (8·1-8·8) to 13·4% (13·0-13·9) in girls. In adults, estimated prevalence of obesity exceeded 50% in men in Tonga and in women in Kuwait, Kiribati, Federated States of Micronesia, Libya, Qatar, Tonga, and Samoa. Since 2006, the increase in adult obesity in developed countries has slowed down.

INTERPRETATION

Because of the established health risks and substantial increases in prevalence, obesity has become a major global health challenge. Not only is obesity increasing, but no national success stories have been reported in the past 33 years. Urgent global action and leadership is needed to help countries to more effectively intervene.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Assessing causality in the association between child adiposity and physical activity levels: a Mendelian randomization analysis

BACKGROUND

Cross-sectional studies have shown that objectively measured physical activity is associated with childhood adiposity, and a strong inverse dose-response association with body mass index (BMI) has been found. However, few studies have explored the extent to which this association reflects reverse causation. We aimed to determine whether childhood adiposity causally influences levels of physical activity using genetic variants reliably associated with adiposity to estimate causal effects.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children collected data on objectively assessed activity levels of 4,296 children at age 11 y with recorded BMI and genotypic data. We used 32 established genetic correlates of BMI combined in a weighted allelic score as an instrumental variable for adiposity to estimate the causal effect of adiposity on activity. In observational analysis, a 3.3 kg/m² (one standard deviation) higher BMI was associated with 22.3 (95% CI, 17.0, 27.6) movement counts/min less total physical activity (p = 1.6×10⁻¹⁶), 2.6 (2.1, 3.1) min/d less moderate-to-vigorous-intensity activity (p = 3.7×10⁻²⁹), and 3.5 (1.5, 5.5) min/d more sedentary time (p = 5.0×10⁻⁴). In Mendelian randomization analyses, the same difference in BMI was associated with 32.4 (0.9, 63.9) movement counts/min less total physical activity (p = 0.04) (∼5.3% of the mean counts/minute), 2.8 (0.1, 5.5) min/d less moderate-to-vigorous-intensity activity (p = 0.04), and 13.2 (1.3, 25.2) min/d more sedentary time (p = 0.03). There was no strong evidence for a difference between variable estimates from observational estimates. Similar results were obtained using fat mass index. Low power and poor instrumentation of activity limited causal analysis of the influence of physical activity on BMI.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that increased adiposity causes a reduction in physical activity in children and support research into the targeting of BMI in efforts to increase childhood activity levels. Importantly, this does not exclude lower physical activity also leading to increased adiposity, i.e., bidirectional causation.