Cirrhotic patients in the medical intensive care unit: Early prognosis and long-term survival*:

Lactate Improves Prediction of Short-Term Mortality in Critically Ill Patients With Cirrhosis: A Multinational Study

Lactate levels and lactate clearance are known predictors of outcome in critically ill patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). The prognostic value of lactate is not well established in liver cirrhosis and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of lactate levels and clearance in critically ill patients with cirrhosis. Patients with cirrhosis admitted to the ICU were studied at the University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (n = 566, derivation cohort) and the Medical University of Vienna and the University Hospitals Leuven (n = 250, validation cohort). Arterial lactate was measured on admission and during the first 24 hours. Patients were followed for 1 year and outcome was assessed. Admission lactate was directly related to the number of organs failing and to 28-day mortality (area under receiver operating characteristic [AUROC] 0.72; P < 0.001). This also applied to lactate follow-up measurements after 6, 12, and 24 hours (P < 0.001 for all, AUROC > 0.70 for all). Lactate clearance had significant predictive ability for 28-day mortality in patients with elevated serum lactate ≥5 mmol/L. Admission lactate and 12-hour lactate clearance (in patients with admission lactate ≥5 mmol/L), respectively, were identified as significant predictors of 1-year mortality, independent of Chronic Liver Failure Consortium acute-on-chronic liver failure score (CLIF-C ACLFs). A lactate-adjusted CLIF-C ACLFs was developed (CLIF-C ACLFs_Lact ), which performed significantly better than the original CLIF-C ACLFs in prediction of 28-day mortality in the derivation and validation cohort. Conclusion: Lactate levels appropriately reflect severity of disease and organ failure and were independently associated with short-term mortality in critically ill patients with liver cirrhosis. Lactate is a simple but accurate prognostic marker, and its incorporation improved performance of CLIF-C ACLFs significantly.

External validation and improvement of LiFe score as a prediction tool in critically ill cirrhosis patients

AIM

The LiFe (liver, injury, failure, evaluation) score, calculated according to arterial lactate, total bilirubin, and international normalized ratio (INR), is a novel score for risk prediction in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with cirrhosis. The present study aimed to externally validate and optimize the LiFe score for predicting outcomes in critically ill cirrhosis patients.

METHODS

The study used the single-center database Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III (MIMIC-III) for analysis. A total of 536 critically ill cirrhosis patients from the MIMIC-III database were analyzed. Routine clinical and laboratory variables were included to compare survivors with non-survivors. The LiFe score was then regraded into three groups to calculate the optimal cut-off values.

RESULTS

In-ICU mortality occurred in 169 (31.5%) of the patients. Survivor and non-survivor cohorts were similar in age, gender, and etiology of cirrhosis. Multivariate analyses of in-ICU mortality identified four independent variables: total bilirubin, creatinine, INR, and arterial lactate. An external validation of the LiFe score showed good accuracy for predicting in-ICU mortality with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.708. In addition, a significant positive correlation exists between LiFe score and acute-on-chronic liver failure grade (r = 0.393, P < 0.001). A log-rank test comparing the strata of simplified LiFe scores found that in-ICU mortality rates were 16.8%, 27.7%, and 51.7%, respectively, among patients in the three simplified risk categories.

CONCLUSIONS

The LiFe score, based on laboratory tests, can be useful as a preliminary and convenient scoring tool in a broad cohort of critically ill cirrhosis patients. Simplified risk categories to stratify patients into three groups improves its feasibility and generalizability for clinical application.

Management of Coagulopathy during Bleeding and Invasive Procedures in Patients with Liver Failure

Alterations in hemostasis are a characteristic feature of advanced liver disease. Patients with coagulopathy of advanced liver disease are prone to bleedings and also thromboembolic events. Under stable conditions, cirrhosis patients show alterations in both pro- and anticoagulatory pathways, frequently resulting in a rebalanced hemostasis. This review summarizes current recommendations of management during bleeding and prior to invasive procedures in patients with cirrhosis.

NACSELD acute-on-chronic liver failure (NACSELD-ACLF) score predicts 30-day survival in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis

The North American Consortium for the Study of End-Stage Liver Disease's definition of acute-on-chronic liver failure (NACSELD-ACLF) as two or more extrahepatic organ failures has been proposed as a simple bedside tool to assess the risk of mortality in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis. We validated the NACSELD-ACLF's ability to predict 30-day survival (defined as in-hospital death or hospice discharge) in a separate multicenter prospectively enrolled cohort of both infected and uninfected hospitalized patients with cirrhosis. We used the NACSELD database of 14 tertiary care hepatology centers that prospectively enrolled nonelective hospitalized patients with cirrhosis (n = 2,675). The cohort was randomly split 60%/40% into training (n = 1,605) and testing (n = 1,070) groups. Organ failures assessed were (1) shock, (2) hepatic encephalopathy (grade III/IV), (3) renal (need for dialysis), and (4) respiratory (mechanical ventilation). Patients were most commonly Caucasian (79%) men (62%) with a mean age of 57 years and a diagnosis of alcohol-induced cirrhosis (45%), and 1,079 patients had an infection during hospitalization. The mean Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score was 19, and the median Child score was 10. No demographic differences were present between the two split groups. Multivariable modeling revealed that the NACSELD-ACLF score, as determined by number of organ failures, was the strongest predictor of decreased survival after controlling for admission age, white blood cell count, serum albumin, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, and presence of infection. The c-statistics were 0.8073 for the training set and 0.8532 for the validation set.

CONCLUSION

Although infection status remains an important predictor of death, NACSELD-ACLF was independently validated in a separate large multinational prospective cohort as a simple, reliable bedside tool to predict 30-day survival in both infected and uninfected patients hospitalized with a diagnosis of cirrhosis. (Hepatology 2018;67:2367-2374).

Incidence and Outcomes for Patients With Cirrhosis Admitted to the United Kingdom Critical Care Units

OBJECTIVE

To assess the epidemiology and outcome of patients with cirrhosis following critical care unit admission.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Critical care units in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland participating in the U.K. Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre Case Mix Programme.

PATIENTS

Thirty-one thousand three hundred sixty-three patients with cirrhosis identified of 1,168,650 total critical care unit admissions (2.7%) admitted to U.K. critical care units between 1998 and 2012.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Ten thousand nine hundred thirty-six patients had alcohol-related liver disease (35%). In total, 1.6% of critical care unit admissions in 1998 had cirrhosis rising to 3.1% in 2012. The crude critical care unit mortality of patients with cirrhosis was 41% in 1998 falling to 31% in 2012 (p < 0.001). Crude hospital mortality fell from 58% to 46% over the study period (p < 0.001). Mean(SD) Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score in 1998 was 20.3 (8.5) and 19.5 (7.1) in 2012. Mean Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score for patients with alcohol-related liver disease in 2012 was 20.6 (7.0) and 19.0 (7.2) for non-alcohol-related liver disease (p < 0.001). In adjusted analysis, alcohol-related liver disease was associated with increased risk of death (odds ratio, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.42-1.62; p < 0.001]) with a year-on-year reduction in hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 0.95/yr, [0.94-0.96, p < 0.001]).

CONCLUSIONS

More patients with cirrhosis are being admitted to critical care units but with increasing survival rates. Patients with alcohol-related liver disease have reduced survival rates partly explained by higher levels of organ failure at admission. Patients with cirrhosis and organ failure warrant a trial of organ support and universal prognostic pessimism is not justified.

Age modifies the risk factor profiles for acute kidney injury among recently diagnosed type 2 diabetic patients: a population-based study

The incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI) rises with age and is associated with multiple risk factors. Here, we compared the risk factors for AKI between younger and older incident diabetic patients to examine the trends in risk alteration for individual factors across different age groups. Between 2007 and 2013, we selected all incident type 2 diabetic adults from the Taiwan National Health Insurance registry, stratified based on age: young (< 65 years), old (≥ 65 but < 75 years), and older-old (≥ 75 years). All factors with potential renal influence (e.g., comorbidities, medications, and diagnostics/procedures) were recorded during the study period, with a nested case-controlled approach utilized to identify independent risk factors for AKI in each age group. Totally, 930,709 type 2 diabetic patients were categorized as young (68.7%), old (17.7%), or older-old (13.6%). Older-old patients showed a significantly higher incidence of AKI than the old and the young groups. Cardiovascular morbidities (hypertension, atrial fibrillation, acute coronary syndrome, and cerebrovascular disease) were shown to increase the risk of AKI, although the risk declined with increasing age. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and receiving cardiac catheterization elevated the risk of AKI preferentially in the older-old/old and older-old group, respectively, while the administration of angiotensin-converting enzyme/α-blocker and angiotensin receptor blocker/calcium channel blocker reduced the risk of AKI preferentially in the older-old and older-old/old group, respectively. In conclusion, our findings highlight the importance of devising age-specific risk factor panels for AKI in patients with recently diagnosed type 2 diabetes.

Potentially inappropriate liver transplantation in the era of the "sickest first" policy - A search for the upper limits

Liver transplantation has emerged as a highly efficient treatment for a variety of acute and chronic liver diseases. However, organ shortage is becoming an increasing problem globally, limiting the applicability of liver transplantation. In addition, potential recipients are becoming sicker, thereby increasing the risk of losing the graft during transplantation or in the initial postoperative period after liver transplantation (three months). This trend is challenging the model for end-stage liver disease allocation system, where the sickest candidates are prioritised and no delisting criteria are given. The weighting of the deontological demand for "equity", trying to save every patient, regardless of the overall utility; and "efficiency", rooted in utilitarianism, trying to save as many patients as possible and increase the overall quality of life of patients facing the same problem, has to be reconsidered. In this article we are aiming to overcome the widespread concept of futility in liver transplantation, providing a definition of potentially inappropriate liver transplantation and giving guidance on situations where it is best not to proceed with liver transplantation, to decrease the mortality rate in the first three months after transplantation. We propose "absolute" and "relative" conditions, where early post-transplant mortality is highly probable, which are not usually captured in risk scores predicting post-transplant survival. Withholding liver transplantation for listed patients in cases where liver transplant is not deemed clearly futile, but is potentially inappropriate, is a far-reaching decision. Until now, this decision had to be discussed extensively on an individual basis, applying explicit communication and conflict resolution processes, since the model for end-stage liver disease score and most international allocation systems do not include explicit delisting criteria to support a fair delisting process. More work is needed to better identify cases where transplantation is potentially inappropriate and to integrate and discuss these delisting criteria in allocation systems, following a societal debate on what we owe to all liver transplant candidates.

Prognosis of cirrhotic patients admitted to intensive care unit: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The best predictors of short- and medium-term mortality of cirrhotic patients receiving intensive care support are unknown.

METHODS

We conducted meta-analyses from 13 studies (2523 cirrhotics) after selection of original articles and response to a standardized questionnaire by the corresponding authors. End-points were in-ICU, in-hospital, and 6-month mortality in ICU survivors. A total of 301 pooled analyses, including 95 analyses restricted to 6-month mortality among ICU survivors, were conducted considering 249 variables (including reason for admission, organ replacement therapy, and composite prognostic scores).

RESULTS

In-ICU, in-hospital, and 6-month mortality was 42.7, 54.1, and 75.1%, respectively. Forty-eight patients (3.8%) underwent liver transplantation during follow-up. In-ICU mortality was lower in patients admitted for variceal bleeding (OR 0.46; 95% CI 0.36-0.59; p < 0.001) and higher in patients with SOFA > 19 at baseline (OR 8.54; 95% CI 2.09-34.91; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.93). High SOFA no longer predicted mortality at 6 months in ICU survivors. Twelve variables related to infection were predictors of in-ICU mortality, including SIRS (OR 2.44; 95% CI 1.64-3.65; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.57), pneumonia (OR 2.18; 95% CI 1.47-3.22; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.69), sepsis-associated refractory oliguria (OR 10.61; 95% CI 4.07-27.63; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.76), and fungal infection (OR 4.38; 95% CI 1.11-17.24; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.85). Among therapeutics, only dopamine (OR 5.57; 95% CI 3.02-10.27; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.68), dobutamine (OR 8.92; 95% CI 3.32-23.96; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.86), epinephrine (OR 5.03; 95% CI 2.68-9.42; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.77), and MARS (OR 2.07; 95% CI 1.22-3.53; p = 0.007; PPV = 0.58) were associated with in-ICU mortality without heterogeneity. In ICU survivors, eight markers of liver and renal failure predicted 6-month mortality, including Child-Pugh stage C (OR 2.43; 95% CI 1.44-4.10; p < 0.001; PPV = 0.57), baseline MELD > 26 (OR 3.97; 95% CI 1.92-8.22; p < 0.0001; PPV = 0.75), and hepatorenal syndrome (OR 4.67; 95% CI 1.24-17.64; p = 0.022; PPV = 0.88).

CONCLUSIONS

Prognosis of cirrhotic patients admitted to ICU is poor since only a minority undergo liver transplant. The prognostic performance of general ICU scores decreases over time, unlike the Child-Pugh and MELD scores, even recorded in the context of organ failure. Infection-related parameters had a short-term impact, whereas liver and renal failure had a sustained impact on mortality.

Long-term outcome of patients with liver cirrhosis admitted to a general intensive care unit

OBJECTIVES

The prevalence of liver cirrhosis is increasing, and many patients have acute conditions requiring consideration of intensive care. This study aims to: (a) report the outcome at 12 months of patients with cirrhosis admitted to ICU, (b) identify factors predictive of long-term mortality and (c) evaluate the ability of scoring systems to predict long-term outcome.

DESIGN

Observational cohort study.

SETTING

General adult critical care unit in a UK teaching hospital.

PATIENTS

Eighty-four patients admitted to critical care between June 2012 and December 2013.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Cumulative survival at ICU discharge, hospital discharge and 12 months.

RESULTS

Eighty-four patients with diagnosed cirrhosis were followed up at 12 months. Clinical variables collected at ICU admission were entered into a multivariate regression analysis for mortality and eight predetermined scoring systems calculated. Cumulative survival at ICU discharge, hospital discharge and 12 months was 64.8, 47.1 and 44.1%, respectively. Twelve months of cumulative survival in patients with Child-Pugh class A was 100%, class B was 50% and class C was 25% (log rank p = 0.002). Independent predictors of mortality at 12 months were lactate, bilirubin, PT ratio and age. The Child-Pugh + Lactate score was modified to produce an objective score comprising Albumin, Bilirubin and Clotting (PT ratio) added to serum lactate concentration in mmol L-1 (ABC + Lactate). This score was the best predictor of 12-month survival, with an AUC of 0.83. A proposed classification by ABC + Lactate score was highly significant (p = 0.001), with those in the highest class having ICU mortality of 75% and hospital and 12-month mortality of 93%.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with cirrhosis admitted to ICU have high initial mortality but low mortality after hospital discharge. Child-Pugh class at ICU admission predicts outcome at 12 months. The ABC + Lactate classification system may be useful in identifying critically ill cirrhotic patients with very high long-term mortality.

Liver transplantation in critically ill patients: Preoperative predictive factors of post-transplant mortality to avoid futility

BACKGROUND

The allocation of liver transplants to patients with acute liver failure (ALF) and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) with multi-organ failure who are admitted in ICU remains controversial due to their high post-transplant mortality rate and the absence of identified mortality risk factors.

METHODS

We performed a single-center retrospective cohort study to determine the post-transplant mortality rate of patients with ALF and ACLF requiring ICU care prior to liver transplant (LT) and identified pretransplant factors of post-transplant mortality.

RESULTS

Eighty-four patients (29 with ALF and 55 with ACLF) received a liver transplant while they were hospitalized at the ICU. Their mean model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score was 41, and their mean sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) was 15 the day before transplant. The overall 1-year survival rate was 66%. In multivariate analysis, pretransplant lactate level and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) were the only two independent factors associated with post-transplant mortality. The absence of ARDS and a pretransplant lactate level< 5 mmol/L led to the identification of a subgroup of ICU patients with a good 1-year post-transplant survival (>80%).

CONCLUSIONS

Low lactatemia lactate level and the absence of ARDS could be useful criteria in selecting those patients in ICU who could be eligible for liver transplant.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure: recent update

Acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) was first described in 1995 as a clinical syndrome distinct to classic acute decompensation. Characterized by complications of decompensation, ACLF occurs on a background of chronic liver dysfunction and is associated with high rates of organ failure and significant short-term mortality estimated between 45% and 90%. Despite the clinical relevance of the condition, it still remains largely undefined with continued disagreement regarding its precise etiological factors, clinical course, prognostic criteria and management pathways. It is concerning that, despite our relative lack of understanding of the condition, the burden of ACLF among cirrhotic patients remains significant with an estimated prevalence of 30.9%. This paper highlights our current understanding of ACLF, including its etiology, diagnostic and prognostic criteria and pathophysiology. It is evident that further refinement of the ACLF classification system is required in order to detect high-risk patients and improve short-term mortality rates. The field of metabolomics certainly warrants investigation to enhance diagnostic and prognostic parameters, while the use of granulocyte-colony stimulating factor is a promising future therapeutic intervention for patients with ACLF.

Performance of Disease-Specific Scoring Models in Intensive Care Patients with Severe Liver Diseases

INTRODUCTION

Egypt has the highest prevalence of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) in the world, estimated nationally at 14.7%. HCV treatment consumes 20% ($80 million) of Egypt's annual health budget. Outcomes of cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU may, in fact, largely depend on differences in the state of the disease, criteria and indications for admission, resource utilization, and intensity of treatment.

AIM

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the efficacy of liver specific scoring models in predicting the outcome of critically ill cirrhotic patients in the ICU as it may help in prioritization of high risk patients and preservation of ICU resources.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Over one year, a total of 777 patients with End Stage Liver Disease (ESLD) due to HCV infection were included in this retrospective non-randomized human study. All statistical analyses were performed by the statistical software SPSS version 22.0 (SPSS, Chicago, IL, USA). Child Turcotte Pugh (CTP) score, MELD score, MELD-Na, MESO, iMELD, Refit MELD and Refit MELD-Na were calculated on ICU admission.

RESULTS

ICU admission was mainly due to Gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding and Hepatic Encephalopathy (HE). Overall mortality was 27%. Age and sex showed no statistical difference between survivors and non survivors. Significantly higher mean values were observed for all models among individuals who died compared to survivors. MELD-Na was the most specific compared to the other scores. MELD-Na was highly predictive of mortality at an optimized cut-off value of 20.4 (AURC=0.789±0.03-CI 95%=0.711-0.865) while original MELD was highly predictive of mortality at an optimized cut-off value of 17.4 (AURC=0.678±0.01-CI 95%=0.613-0.682) denoting the importance of adding serum sodium to the original MELD. INR, serum creatinine, bilirubin, white blood cells count and hyponatremia were significantly higher in non survivors compared to survivors, while hypoalbuminemia showed no statistical difference. The advent of Hepatorenal Syndrome (HRS) and Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis (SBP) carried worse prognosis. Hyponatremia and number of transfused blood bags were additional independent predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSION

In cirrhosis of liver, due to HCV infection, patients who died during their ICU stay displayed significantly higher values on all prognostic scores at admission. The addition of sodium to MELD score greatly improves the predictive accuracy of mortality. MELD-Na showed the highest predictive value of all scores.

Different Impact of the Number of Organ Failures and Graft-Versus-Host Disease on the Outcome of Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation Recipients Requiring Intensive Care

BACKGROUND

Admission of allogeneic stem cell transplantation (SCT) recipients to the intensive care unit (ICU) remains controversial, especially when graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is present.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study to assess prognostic factors of survival in all allogeneic SCT recipients admitted to the ICU between 2002 and 2013 in our center which has flexible admission criteria, especially regarding GVHD.

RESULTS

Of 349 patients who underwent allogeneic SCT during the study period, 92 patients (26%) were admitted to the ICU. Intensive care unit and hospital discharge rates were 66% and 46%, respectively, whereas 1 year survival was 24%. Acute GVHD, either grade III to IV (30 patients, 33%) or refractory (12 patients, 13%) had a nonsignificant impact on hospital mortality (odds ratio [OR], 2.1; P = 0.1; OR, 5, P = 0.05, respectively). Fifty percent of patients required invasive mechanical ventilation, 30% required vasopressors, 17% required renal replacement therapy, and 28% had liver impairment (bilirubin >34 μmol/L), each of these parameters defining organ failure. Mortality was closely associated with the number of organ failures as hospital discharge rates were 69%, 50%, 42%, and 0% among patients with 0 (26 patients), 1 (26 patients), 2 (26 patients), and 3 to 4 (14 patients) organ failures, respectively (OR, 2.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.6-4.6; P < 0.001 according to the number of organ failures).

CONCLUSIONS

Early mortality of allogeneic SCT recipients admitted to the ICU is especially influenced by the number of organ failures and therefore patients with 0 to 2 organ failures should be considered if required. Refractory GVHD affects survival but not within the confined ICU admission.

Comparison of the prognostic value of Chronic Liver Failure Consortium scores and traditional models for predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Recently, the European Association for the Study of the Liver - Chronic Liver Failure (CLIF) Consortium defined two new prognostic scores, according to the presence or absence of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF): the CLIF Consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs) and the CLIF-C Acute Decompensation score (CLIF-C ADs). We sought to compare their accuracy in predicting 30- and 90-day mortality with some of the existing models: Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-Na, integrated MELD (iMELD), MELD to serum sodium ratio index (MESO), Refit MELD and Refit MELD-Na.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study that evaluated all admissions due to decompensated cirrhosis in 2 centers between 2011 and 2014. At admission each score was assessed, and the discrimination ability was compared by measuring the area under the ROC curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

A total of 779 hospitalizations were evaluated. Two hundred and twenty-two patients met criteria for ACLF (25.9%). The 30- and 90-day mortality were respectively 17.7 and 37.3%. CLIF-C ACLFs presented an AUROC for predicting 30- and 90-day mortality of 0.684 (95% CI: 0.599-0.770) and 0.666 (95% CI: 0.588-0.744) respectively. No statistically significant differences were found when compared to traditional models. For patients without ACLF, CLIF-C ADs had an AUROC for predicting 30- and 90-day mortality of 0.689 (95% CI: 0.614-0.763) and 0.672 (95% CI: 0.624-0.720) respectively. When compared to other scores, it was only statistically superior to MELD for predicting 30-day mortality (p=0.0296).

CONCLUSIONS

The new CLIF-C scores were not statistically superior to the traditional models, with the exception of CLIF-C ADs for predicting 30-day mortality.

Predicting mortality of patients with cirrhosis admitted to medical intensive care unit: An experience of a single tertiary center

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

Prognosis for patients with cirrhosis admitted to a medical intensive care unit (MICU) is poor and no previous studies have been published from Qatar or other countries in the region to investigate this issue. The objective of this study was to assess the predictors for in-hospital mortality and admission of cirrhotic patients to MICU in a single tertiary hospital in Qatar.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

All adult cirrhotic MICU patients hospitalized from 2007 through 2012 to Hamad General Hospital-Qatar were included. We compared them to cirrhotic patients admitted to medical wards during same period of time. All data were recorded and analyzed with respect to demographic parameters, clinical features and laboratory as well as radiology characteristics on day one of admission to MICU. Cirrhosis diagnosis was established either with a liver biopsy or the combination of physical, laboratory and radiologic findings. Predictors of mortality were defined by logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

The cohort comprised 109 cirrhotic MICU patients (86.2% males), and their mean age±SD was 51.6±11.5. MICU-cirrhotic patients had longer hospital stays than medical wards-cirrhotic patients (p=0.01). Admission with severe hepatic encephalopathy, upper gastrointestinal bleeding and SOFA (Sepsis Related Organ Failure Assessment) score were the independent predicting factors for MICU admission. Mortality was higher for the MICU-cirrhotic group than medical wards group (27 (24.8%) deaths vs. 12 (5.3%) deaths, respectively, p=0.001). In multivariate logistic regression analyses, older age>60years (p=0.04), APACH-II score (p=0.001) and MELD score (p=0.02) were independent predicting factors for overall mortality.

CONCLUSION

Severe hepatic encephalopathy, upper gastrointestinal bleeding and SOFA score predict MICU admission of cirrhotic patients. Among MICU cirrhotic patients, older age, APACH-II score and MELD score predict mortality.

Reviewing the diagnostic criteria for acute-on-chronic liver failure

For over 20 years, acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has taken multiple definitions and/or classifications. The definition outlines the acute and chronic insults to include a homogenous patient group with liver failure and an expected outcome in a specific time frame. Early and accurate diagnosis is essential as this inflammation of the liver may tilt the balance of liver destruction and regeneration adversely. Various factors such as superadded systemic sepsis, liver reserve, cause of primary chronic liver disease, state of immune system or the state of gut microbial flora might determine the ultimate prognosis. Areas covered: To date, there has been no universally accepted definition of ACLF. In this review, we discuss the strengths and weaknesses, controversies and basis for early identification and accurate diagnosis of ACLF. PubMed and Google scholar database searches were conducted, search terms included 'acute on chronic liver failure,' 'ACLF,' and 'diagnostic criteria.' Expert commentary: With recent advances in the management of advanced cirrhosis, research will gradually shift towards ACLF in the near future, focusing on the pathogenesis, new treatment options and improving survival. Once we improve understanding of this syndrome, newer definitions will evolve, thereby enabling earlier diagnosis and novel therapeutic avenues.

Prognosis of cirrhotic patients admitted to the general ICU

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU is considered to be poor but has been mainly reported in liver ICU. We aimed to describe the prognosis of cirrhotic patients admitted to a general ICU, to assess the predictors of mortality in this population, and, finally, to identify a subgroup of patients in whom intensive care escalation might be discussed.

RESULTS

We performed a retrospective monocentric study of all cirrhotic patients consecutively admitted between 2002 and 2014 in a general ICU in a regional university hospital. Two hundred and eighteen cirrhotic patients were admitted to the ICU. The 28-day and 6-month mortality rates were 53 and 74 %, respectively. Among the 115 patients who were discharged from ICU, only eight patients underwent liver transplantation, whereas 48 had no clear contraindication. Multivariable analyses on 28-day mortality identified three independent variables, incorporated into a new three-variable prognostic model as follows: SOFA ≥ 12 (OR 4.2 [2.2-8.0]; 2 points), INR ≥ 2.6 (OR 2.5 [1.3-4.8]; 1 point), and renal replacement therapy (OR 2.3 [1.1-5.1]; 1 point). For a value of the score at 4 (16 % of patients), 28-day and 3-month mortality rates were 91 and 100 %, respectively. An external validation of the score among 149 critically ill cirrhotic patients showed a good accuracy for predicting in-ICU mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality of cirrhotic patients admitted to a general ICU was comparable to that of other studies. A pragmatic score integrating the SOFA score, INR, and the need for extrarenal epuration was strongly associated with mortality. Among the 16 % of patients presenting with score 4 at ICU admission, 100 % died in the 3-month follow-up period. The prognostic evaluation on day 3 remains essential for the majority of patients. However, this score calculable at ICU admission might identify patients in whom the benefit of intensive care escalation should be discussed, in particular when liver transplantation is contraindicated.

Predictors of Mortality in the Critically Ill Cirrhotic Patient: Is the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Enough?

BACKGROUND

Critically ill cirrhotics require liver transplantation urgently, but are at high risk for perioperative mortality. The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, recently updated to incorporate serum sodium, estimates survival probability in patients with cirrhosis, but needs additional evaluation in the critically ill. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the predictive power of ICU admission MELD scores and identify clinical risk factors associated with increased mortality.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a retrospective review of cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU between January 2011 and December 2014. Patients who were discharged or underwent transplantation (survivors) were compared with those who died (nonsurvivors). Demographic characteristics, admission MELD scores, and clinical risk factors were recorded. Multivariate regression was used to identify independent predictors of mortality, and measures of model performance were assessed to determine predictive accuracy.

RESULTS

Of 276 patients who met inclusion criteria, 153 were considered survivors and 123 were nonsurvivors. Survivor and nonsurvivor cohorts had similar demographic characteristics. Nonsurvivors had increased MELD, gastrointestinal bleeding, infection, mechanical ventilation, encephalopathy, vasopressors, dialysis, renal replacement therapy, requirement of blood products, and ICU length of stay. The MELD demonstrated low predictive power (c-statistic 0.73). Multivariate analysis identified MELD score (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.05), mechanical ventilation (AOR = 4.55), vasopressors (AOR = 3.87), and continuous renal replacement therapy (AOR = 2.43) as independent predictors of mortality, with stronger predictive accuracy (c-statistic 0.87).

CONCLUSIONS

The MELD demonstrated relatively poor predictive accuracy in critically ill patients with cirrhosis and might not be the best indicator for prognosis in the ICU population. Prognostic accuracy is significantly improved when variables indicating organ support (mechanical ventilation, vasopressors, and continuous renal replacement therapy) are included in the model.

Intensive care management of patients with liver disease: proceedings of a single-topic conference sponsored by the Brazilian Society of Hepatology

Survival rates of critically ill patients with liver disease has sharply increased in recent years due to several improvements in the management of decompensated cirrhosis and acute liver failure. This is ascribed to the incorporation of evidence-based strategies from clinical trials aiming to reduce mortality. In order to discuss the cutting-edge evidence regarding critical care of patients with liver disease, a joint single topic conference was recently sponsored by the Brazilian Society of Hepatology in cooperation with the Brazilian Society of Intensive Care Medicine and the Brazilian Association for Organ Transplantation. This paper summarizes the proceedings of the aforementioned meeting and it is intended to guide intensive care physicians, gastroenterologists and hepatologists in the care management of patients with liver disease.

Prognostication of critically ill patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure using the Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment: A Canadian retrospective study

PURPOSE

We evaluated the Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA) score to predict survival in a Canadian critically ill cohort with acute-on-chronic liver failure.

METHODS

We retrospectively examined 274 acute-on-chronic liver failure patients admitted to a quaternary level intensive care unit (ICU) between April 1, 2000, and April 30, 2011. We evaluated severity of illness scores, including the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), SOFA, and CLIF-SOFA.

RESULTS

On ICU admission, patients had the following median (interquartile range): APACHE II, 23 (19-28); MELD, 26 (19-35); CTP, 12 (10-13); SOFA, 15 (11-18); and CLIF-SOFA, 17 (13-21). In-hospital survival was 40%. There were no significant differences in survival for cirrhosis etiology, reason, or year of admission. The CLIF-SOFA score had the greatest area under receiver operating curve of 0.865 (95% confidence interval, 0.820-0.909) and outperformed the CTP, MELD, SOFA, and APACHE II scores. Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score performance improved on the third day of ICU admission (area under receiver operating curve, 0.935; 95% confidence interval, 0.895-0.975).

CONCLUSIONS

The CLIF-SOFA and SOFA scores during the first 3 days of ICU admission appear to be highly predictive of in-hospital mortality.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure in cirrhosis

The definition of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) remains contested. In Europe and North America, the term is generally applied according to the European Association for the Study of the Liver-Chronic Liver Failure (EASL-CLIF) Consortium guidelines, which defines this condition as a syndrome that develops in patients with cirrhosis and is characterized by acute decompensation, organ failure and high short-term mortality. One-third of patients who are hospitalized for acute decompensation present with ACLF at admission or develop the syndrome during hospitalization. ACLF frequently occurs in a closed temporal relationship to a precipitating event, such as bacterial infection or acute alcoholic, drug-induced or viral hepatitis. However, no precipitating event can be identified in approximately 40% of patients. The mechanisms of ACLF involve systemic inflammation due to infections, acute liver damage and, in cases without precipitating events, probably intestinal translocation of bacteria or bacterial products. ACLF is graded into three stages (ACLF grades 1-3) on the basis of the number of organ failures, with higher grades associated with increased mortality. Liver and renal failures are the most common organ failures, followed by coagulation, brain, circulatory and respiratory failure. The 28-day mortality rate associated with ACLF is 30%. Depending on the grade, ACLF can be reversed using standard therapy in only 16-51% of patients, leaving a considerable proportion of patients with ACLF that remains steady or progresses. Liver transplantation in selected patients with ACLF grade 2 and ACLF grade 3 increases the 6-month survival from 10% to 80%.

MRI-based estimation of liver function by intravoxel incoherent motion diffusion-weighted imaging

PURPOSE

To explore the usefulness of intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) to evaluate the hepatic functional reserve as expressed by the model for Child-Pugh class.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

IVIM diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) using 10 different b values were performed on a Philips 3.0T MR scanner in 70 patients with liver cirrhosis and 60 healthy volunteers as the control group. Patients with liver cirrhosis were subdivided into three groups: Child-Pugh class A: 29 cases; Child-Pugh class B: 19 cases; Child-Pugh class C: 22 cases. Pure molecular diffusion (D), pseudo-diffusion (D*), perfusion fraction (f) and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values were calculated, and used to determine liver function, as indicated by the Child-Pugh class.

RESULTS

The ICC values of D, D*, f and ADC between two radiologists were 0.997, 0.986, 0.985 and 0.995, respectively. D*, f and ADC values of liver cirrhosis group were significantly lower than control group (P<0.001, P=0.016, P=0.042, respectively). D*, f and ADC values significantly decreased with increasing Child-Pugh scores (p<0.05). Child-Pugh scores were inversely correlated with D* and f values (r=-0.423, r=-0.620, respectively). The areas under the curve (AUCs) of D* and f for evaluating liver function were 0.67-0.90 and 0.78-0.89, respectively.

CONCLUSION

IVIM DWI may be a useful image-based method for assessing liver function.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure: a new syndrome in cirrhosis

Patients with cirrhosis who are hospitalized for an acute decompensation (AD) and also have organ failure(s) are at high risk of short-term death. These patients have a syndrome called Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (ACLF). ACLF is now considered as a new syndrome that it is distinct from “mere” AD not only because of the presence of organ failure(s) and high short-term mortality but also because of younger age, higher prevalence of alcoholic etiology of cirrhosis, higher prevalence of some precipitants (such as bacterial infections, active alcoholism), and more intense systemic inflammatory response. ACLF is a new syndrome also because severe sepsis or severe alcoholic hepatitis do not account for 100% of the observed cases; in fact, almost 50% of the cases are of “unknown” origin. In other words, severe sepsis, severe alcoholic hepatitis and ACLF of “unknown origin” are subcategories of the syndrome.

Impact of chronic hepatitis C on mortality in cirrhotic patients admitted to intensive-care unit

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis and severe sepsis are factors associated with increased mortality in intensive care unit (ICU), but chronic hepatitis C (CHC) has been less studied in ICU. The aim of this study was to analyze the impact of CHC on the mortality of cirrhotic patients admitted to ICU according to severe sepsis and decompensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

We carried out a retrospective study based on CHC-cirrhotic patients (CHC-group) admitted to ICU (n = 1138) and recorded in the Spanish Minimum Basic Data Set (2005-2010). A control-group (randomly selected cirrhotic patients without HIV, HBV, or HCV infections) was also included (n = 4127). The primary outcome variable was ICU mortality. The cumulative mortality rate on days 7, 30, and 90 in patients admitted to the ICUs was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of patients admitted to the ICU. The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for death in the ICU was estimated through a semi-parametric Bayesian model of competing risk.

RESULTS

The CHC-group had a higher cumulative incidence of severe sepsis than the control-group in compensated cirrhosis (37.4 vs. 31.1%; p = 0.024), but no differences between the CHC-group and the control-group in decompensated cirrhosis were found. Moreover, a higher cumulative incidence of severe sepsis was associated with decompensated cirrhosis compared to compensated cirrhosis in the control-group (40.1 vs. 31.1%; p < 0.001) whereas this was not observed in the CHC group (38.1 vs. 37.4%; p = 0.872). The CHC-group had higher cumulative mortality than the control-group by days 7 (47 vs. 41.3%; p < 0.001), 30 (78.5 vs. 73.5%; p < 0.001), and 90 (96.3 vs. 95.9%; p < 0.001). In a competitive risk model, the CHC-group had a higher risk of dying if the ICU course was complicated by severe sepsis (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.19; p = 0.003), but no significant values in patients with absence of severe sepsis were found (aHR = 1.09; p= 0.068). When patients were stratified by cirrhosis stage and severe sepsis, CHC patients with compensated cirrhosis had the higher risk of death if they had severe sepsis (aHR = 1.35; p = 0.002). Moreover, the survival was low in patients with decompensated cirrhosis and severe sepsis but we did not find significant differences between CHC-group and control-group.

CONCLUSIONS

CHC was associated with an increased risk of death in cirrhotic patients admitted to ICUs, particularly in patients with compensated cirrhosis and severe sepsis.

Child-Pugh Versus MELD Score for the Assessment of Prognosis in Liver Cirrhosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

Child-Pugh and MELD scores have been widely used for the assessment of prognosis in liver cirrhosis. A systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to compare the discriminative ability of Child-Pugh versus MELD score to assess the prognosis of cirrhotic patients.PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched. The statistical results were summarized from every individual study. The summary areas under receiver operating characteristic curves, sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and diagnostic odds ratios were also calculated.Of the 1095 papers initially identified, 119 were eligible for the systematic review. Study population was heterogeneous among studies. They included 269 comparisons, of which 44 favored MELD score, 16 favored Child-Pugh score, 99 did not find any significant difference between them, and 110 did not report the statistical significance. Forty-two papers were further included in the meta-analysis. In patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure, Child-Pugh score had a higher sensitivity and a lower specificity than MELD score. In patients admitted to ICU, MELD score had a smaller negative likelihood ratio and a higher sensitivity than Child-Pugh score. In patients undergoing surgery, Child-Pugh score had a higher specificity than MELD score. In other subgroup analyses, Child-Pugh and MELD scores had statistically similar discriminative abilities or could not be compared due to the presence of significant diagnostic threshold effects.Although Child-Pugh and MELD scores had similar prognostic values in most of cases, their benefits might be heterogeneous in some specific conditions. The indications for Child-Pugh and MELD scores should be further identified.

A modified prognostic score for critically ill patients with cirrhosis: An observational study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

It is controversial whether patients with cirrhosis benefit from the intensive care unit (ICU) management. To identify the patients in whom ICU care may offer recovery, this study aimed to determine specific risk factors and to establish a novel prognostic score for 3-month mortality in critically ill patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

An observational study was performed from August 2008 to May 2014, encompassing 349 critically ill patients with cirrhosis during their ICU stay (a 70% training and 30% validation set).

RESULTS

The overall 3-month mortality rate was 68.1% in training cohort. Prothrombin time, serum bilirubin, use of vasopressors, hepatic encephalopathy, and systemic inflammatory response syndrome at admission were identified as being strongly correlated with the 3-month prognosis. Based on these five variables, a modified score for critically ill cirrhosis (MSCIC) was developed. An increasing MSCIC was significantly correlated with a reduction in the rate of survival (P < 0.001). Moreover, excellent predictive power was found when the MSCIC was used (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.856 ± 0.047), which was significantly better than the prognostic efficiency of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (P < 0.001), Model for End-stage Liver Disease (P = 0.02), Simplified Acute Physiology Score (P = 0.023), and the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (P = 0.01); the MSCIC score was slightly better than that of Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (P = 0.068). The similar result was obtained in validation set.

CONCLUSIONS

The MSCIC is an easily adopted tool with a high prognostic efficacy for patients with advanced cirrhosis; MSCIC may act as a supplement to the clinical judgment of physicians when considering the prognosis.

[Evaluation and treatment of the critically ill cirrhotic patient]

Cirrhotic patients often develop severe complications requiring ICU admission. Grade III-IV hepatic encephalopathy, septic shock, acute-on-chronic liver failure and variceal bleeding are clinical decompensations that need a specific therapeutic approach in cirrhosis. The increased effectiveness of the treatments currently used in this setting and the spread of liver transplantation programs have substantially improved the prognosis of critically ill cirrhotic patients, which has facilitated their admission to critical care units. However, gastroenterologists and intensivists have limited knowledge of the pathogenesis, diagnosis and treatment of these complications and of the prognostic evaluation of critically ill cirrhotic patients. Cirrhotic patients present alterations in systemic and splanchnic hemodynamics, coagulation and immune dysfunction what further increase the complexity of the treatment, the risk of developing new complications and mortality in comparison with the general population. These differential characteristics have important diagnostic and therapeutic implications that must be known by general intensivists. In this context, the Catalan Society of Gastroenterology and Hepatology requested a group of experts to draft a position paper on the assessment and treatment of critically ill cirrhotic patients. This article describes the recommendations agreed upon at the consensus meetings and their main conclusions.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure: Pathogenesis, prognostic factors and management

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is increasingly recognized as a complex syndrome that is reversible in many cases. It is characterized by an acute deterioration of liver function in the background of a pre-existing chronic liver disease often associated with a high short-term mortality rate. Organ failure (OF) is always associated, and plays a key role in determining the course, and the outcome of the disease. The definition of ACLF remains controversial due to its overall ambiguity, with several disparate criteria among various associations dedicated to the study of liver diseases. Although the precise pathogenesis needs to be clarified, it appears that an altered host response to injury might be a contributing factor caused by immune dysfunction, ultimately leading to a pro-inflammatory status, and eventually to OF. The PIRO concept (Predisposition, Insult, Response and Organ Failure) has been proposed to better approach the underlying mechanisms. It is accepted that ACLF is a different and specific form of liver failure, where a precipitating event is always involved, even though it cannot always be ascertained. According to several studies, infections and active alcoholism often trigger ACLF. Viral hepatitis, gastrointestinal haemorrhage, or drug induced liver injury, which can also provoke the syndrome. This review mainly focuses on the physiopathology and prognostic aspects. We believe these features are essential to further understanding and providing the rationale for improveddisease management strategies.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure

Acute-on-chronic liver failure combines an acute deterioration in liver function in an individual with pre-existing chronic liver disease and hepatic and extrahepatic organ failures, and is associated with substantial short-term mortality. Common precipitants include bacterial and viral infections, alcoholic hepatitis, and surgery, but in more than 40% of patients, no precipitating event is identified. Systemic inflammation and susceptibility to infection are characteristic pathophysiological features. A new diagnostic score, the Chronic Liver Failure Consortium (CLIF-C) organ failure score, has been developed for classification and prognostic assessment of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure. Disease can be reversed in many patients, and thus clinical management focuses upon the identification and treatment of the precipitant while providing multiorgan-supportive care that addresses the complex pattern of physiological disturbance in critically ill patients with liver disease. Liver transplantation is a highly effective intervention in some specific cases, but recipient identification, organ availability, timing of transplantation, and high resource use are barriers to more widespread application. Recognition of acute-on-chronic liver failure as a clinically and pathophysiologically distinct syndrome with defined diagnostic and prognostic criteria will help to encourage the development of new management pathways and interventions to address the unacceptably high mortality.

Validation and analysis of prognostic scoring systems for critically ill patients with cirrhosis admitted to ICU

Introduction

The number of patients admitted to ICU who have liver cirrhosis is rising. Current prognostic scoring tools to predict ICU mortality have performed poorly in this group. In previous research from a single centre, a novel scoring tool which modifies the Child-Turcotte Pugh score by adding Lactate concentration, the CTP + L score, is strongly associated with mortality. This study aims to validate the use of the CTP + L scoring tool for predicting ICU mortality in patients admitted to a general ICU with cirrhosis, and to determine significant predictive factors for mortality with this group of patients. This study will also explore the use of the Royal Free Hospital (RFH) score in this cohort.

Methods

A total of 84 patients admitted to the Glasgow Royal Infirmary ICU between June 2012 and Dec 2013 with cirrhosis were included. An additional cohort of 115 patients was obtained from two ICUs in London (St George’s and St Thomas’) collected between October 2007 and July 2009. Liver specific and general ICU scoring tools were calculated for both cohorts, and compared using area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Independent predictors of ICU mortality were identified by univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis was utilised to determine the most predictive factors affecting mortality within these patient groups.

Results

Within the Glasgow cohort, independent predictors of ICU mortality were identified as Lactate (p < 0.001), Bilirubin (p = 0.0048), PaO₂/FiO₂ Ratio (p = 0.032) and PT ratio (p = 0.012). Within the London cohort, independent predictors of ICU mortality were Lactate (p < 0.001), PT ratio (p < 0.001), Bilirubin (p = 0.027), PaO₂/FiO₂ Ratio (p = 0.0011) and Ascites (p = 0.023). The CTP + L and RFH scoring tools had the highest ROC value in both cohorts examined.

Conclusion

The CTP + L and RFH scoring tool are validated prognostic scoring tools for predicting ICU mortality in patients admitted to a general ICU with cirrhosis.

Prognostic Value of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score Measurements on a Daily Basis in Critically Ill Patients With Cirrhosis

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether daily measurement of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score adds prognostic value to the initial MELD score in predicting mortality among patients with cirrhosis admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

METHODS

We included 830 consecutive patients with cirrhosis admitted to a tertiary care ICU from January 1, 2003, through December 31, 2013, who had MELD scores on admission day 1 (MELD-D1). Daily MELD score during the first 7 days of ICU admission were retrospectively abstracted. The performances of MELD-D1 to MELD-D7 and changes in MELD score on consecutive days (Δ-MELD) in predicting 90-day mortality were determined using logistic regression.

RESULTS

MELD-D1 was an independent predictor of mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.05-1.10; P<.001), with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.72. MELD-D2 to MELD-D7 yielded comparable performance to MELD-D1 with an approximately 10% increase in risk of death per each incremental unit of MELD score (odds ratios, 1.09-1.11; P<.001; AUCs, 0.68-0.72). Δ-MELD-D2 to Δ-MELD-D7 were not independently associated with mortality (P=.69, P=.42, P=.81, P=.94, P=.83 and P=.28, respectively) and did not increase the predictive performance (AUCs) when combined with MELD-D2 to MELD-D7.

CONCLUSION

Repeating MELD score assessment during the first 7 days after ICU admission does not improve the ability of the initial MELD score for predicting 90-day mortality among patients with cirrhosis. Our finding does not support the practice of routine daily measurement of the MELD score.

Early post-transplant survival: Interaction of MELD score and hospitalization status

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Urgency-based allocation that relies on the MELD score prioritizes patients at the highest risk of waitlist mortality. However, identifying patients at greatest risk for short-term post-transplant mortality is needed in order to optimize the potential gains in overall survival obtained through improved long-term management of transplant recipients. There are limited data on the predictive ability of MELD score for early post-transplant mortality, and no data assessing the interaction between MELD score and hospitalization status.

METHODS

We analyzed UNOS data from 2002 to 2013 on 50,838 non-status 1 single-organ liver transplant recipients and fit multivariable logistic models to evaluate the association and interaction between MELD score and pre-transplant hospitalization status on short-term post-transplant mortality.

RESULTS

There was a significant interaction (p<0.01) between laboratory MELD score and hospitalization status on three-, six-, and 12-month post-transplant mortality in multivariable logistic models. This interaction was most pronounced in patients with a laboratory MELD score <25 transplanted from an ICU, whose adjusted predicted three-, six-, and 12-month post-transplant mortality approximated those of patients with a MELD score ⩾30. Compared to hospitalized patients with a MELD score of 30-34, those with a MELD score ⩾35 in an ICU had significantly increased risk of three-month (OR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.21-1.97), 6-month (OR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.09-1.67), and 12-month (OR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.03-1.52) post-transplant mortality.

DISCUSSION

Pre-transplant ICU status modifies the risk of early post-transplant mortality, independent of MELD score. This should be considered when determining candidacy for transplantation in order to optimize efficient use of a scarce resource.

Allocation of patients with liver cirrhosis and organ failure to intensive care: Systematic review and a proposal for clinical practice

AIM: To propose an allocation system of patients with liver cirrhosis to intensive care unit (ICU), and developed a decision tool for clinical practice.

METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was performed in PubMed, MEDLINE and EMBASE databases. The search includes studies on hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and organ failure, or acute on chronic liver failure and/or intensive care therapy.

RESULTS: The initial search identified 660 potentially relevant articles. Ultimately, five articles were selected; two cohort studies and three reviews were found eligible. The literature on this topic is scarce and no studies specifically address allocation of patients with liver cirrhosis to ICU. Throughout the literature, there is consensus that selection criteria for ICU admission should be developed and validated for this group of patients and multidisciplinary approach is mandatory. Based on current available data we developed an algorithm, to determine if a patient is candidate to intensive care if needed, based on three scoring systems: premorbid Child-Pugh Score, Model of End stage Liver Disease score and the liver specific Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score.

CONCLUSION: There are no established systems for allocation of patients with liver cirrhosis to the ICU and no evidence-based recommendations can be made.

Critical care admission for acute medical patients

Demand for intensive care is growing. There are no contemporaneous consensus guidelines on which patients should be referred to intensive care. Prognostic scoring systems predict survival, but are of limited use for individual patients. Some groups of patients have historically been regarded as having a very high mortality after admission to intensive care, raising questions about the appropriateness of advanced organ support in these patients. We reviewed the existing literature on outcomes of patients admitted to intensive care with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, liver cirrhosis and haematological malignancies. We identified specific markers indicating a poor prognosis in each group, and also identified common risk factors predicting a high mortality across all groups. Multiple organ failure at the time of referral to intensive care predicts a very poor outcome. Physical factors indicating a limited functional capacity also predict high mortality, suggesting that frailty has a significant impact on intensive care outcome.

Retrospective evaluation of prognostic score performances in cirrhotic patients admitted to an intermediate care unit

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of cirrhotic patients in the Intensive Care Unit requires the development of predictive tools for mortality. We aimed to evaluate the ability of different prognostic scores to predict hospital mortality in these patients.

METHODS

A single-centre retrospective analysis was conducted of 281 hospital stays of cirrhotic patients at an Intermediate Care Unit between June 2009 and December 2010. The performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SOFA), the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II or III, Child-Pugh, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-Na and the Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure score (CLIF-C ACLF) in predicting hospital mortality were compared.

RESULTS

Mean age was 58.2±12.1 years; 77% were male. The main cause of admission was acute gastrointestinal bleeding (47%). The in-hospital mortality rate was 25.3%. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses demonstrated that SOFA (0.82) MELD-Na (0.82) or MELD (0.81) scores at admission predicted in-hospital mortality better than Child-Pugh (0.76), SAPS II (0.77), SAPS III (0.75) or CLIF-C ACLF (0.75). We then developed the cirrhosis prognostic score (Ci-Pro), which performed better (0.89) than SOFA.

CONCLUSION

SOFA, MELD and especially the Ci-Pro score show the best performance in predicting hospital mortality of cirrhotic patients admitted to an Intermediate Care Unit.

Liver lobe-based magnetic resonance diffusion-weighted imaging using multiple b values in patients with hepatitis B-related liver cirrhosis: association with the liver disease severity according to the Child-Pugh class

OBJECTIVE

To determine the associations of liver lobe-based magnetic resonance diffusion-weighted imaging findings using multiple b values with the presence and Child-Pugh class of cirrhosis in patients with hepatitis B.

METHODS

Seventy-four cirrhotic patients with hepatitis B and 25 healthy volunteers underwent diffusion-weighted imaging using b values of 0, 500, 800 and 1000 sec/mm2. The apparent diffusion coefficients of individual liver lobes for b(0,500), b(0,800) and b(0,1000) were derived from the signal intensity averaged across images obtained using b values of 0 and 500 sec/mm2, 0 and 800 sec/mm2, or 0 and 1000 sec/mm2, respectively, and were statistically analyzed to evaluate cirrhosis.

RESULTS

The apparent diffusion coefficients for b(0,500), b(0,800) and b(0,1000) inversely correlated with the Child-Pugh class in the left lateral liver lobe, the left medial liver lobe, the right liver lobe and the caudate lobe (r=-0.35 to -0.60, all p<0.05), except for the apparent diffusion coefficient for b(0,1000) in the left medial liver lobe (r=-0.17, p>0.05). Among these parameters, the apparent diffusion coefficient for b(0,500) in the left lateral liver lobe best differentiated normal from cirrhotic liver, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.989. The apparent diffusion coefficient for b(0,800) in the right liver lobe best distinguished Child-Pugh class A from B-C and A-B from C, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.732 and 0.747, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Liver lobe-based apparent diffusion coefficients for b(0,500) and b(0,800) appear to be associated with the presence and Child-Pugh class of liver cirrhosis.

Increased Survival for Patients With Cirrhosis and Organ Failure in Liver Intensive Care and Validation of the Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Scoring System

BACKGROUND & AIMS

During the past decade, survival has increased among patients admitted to general intensive care units, but it is not clear if it has increased for patients admitted with cirrhosis and organ failure. The chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA) recently was developed as an adaptation to the SOFA to predict outcomes of patients, but requires validation. We investigated changes in outcomes of patients with cirrhosis and organ failure since 2000, compared the abilities of SOFA and CLIF-SOFA to predict patient survival, and validated the CLIF-SOFA system.

METHODS

In a retrospective study, we collected data from 971 patients (median age, 52 y; age range, 16-90 y; 62% male) with cirrhosis (54% alcohol associated, 12% viral, and 34% other causes). The patients were admitted under emergency conditions from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2010, to a liver intensive therapy unit in the United Kingdom. Patient survival while in the hospital was compared with measures of illness severity, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II scores, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores, SOFA scores, and CLIF-SOFA scores.

RESULTS

Patients had a median APACHE II score of 21 (range, 5-50) and a median MELD score of 23 (range, 6-40). The median APACHE II score at admission decreased from 23 to 22 over the study period (P < .001), whereas the median MELD score at admission decreased from 23 to 18 (P < .001). Overall survival until hospital discharge was 51%; this value increased from 40% in 2000 to 63% in 2010 (P < .001). The unadjusted odds ratio for change in mortality/year was 0.87 (95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.91; P < .001). The APACHE II score adjusted odds ratio for mortality was 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.93; P < .001). The etiology of cirrhosis was not associated with a significant difference in survival. CLIF-SOFA and SOFA scores at the time of admission predicted patient survival with area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) values of 0.813 and 0.799, respectively; the scores at 48 hours after admission predicted survival with AUROC values of 0.853 and 0.840, and scores after 1 week predicted survival with AUROC values of 0.842 and 0.844, respectively. These AUROC values were higher than those obtained from APACHE II or MELD scores.

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of patients with cirrhosis who survived after admission to intensive care increased from 2000 to 2010. SOFA and CLIF-SOFA scores during the first week of critical care appear to have similar abilities to predict patient survival.

Definition of ACLF and inclusion criteria for extra-hepatic organ failure

A prominent characteristic of ACLF is rapid hepatic disease progression with subsequent extra-hepatic organ failure, manifesting as either hepatic coma or hepatorenal syndrome, which is associated with a high mortality rate in a short time. The APASL definition mainly emphasizes recognizing patients with hepatic failure. These patients may subsequently develop extra-hepatic multisystem organ failure leading to high mortality. It is therefore worthwhile to identify the short interim period between the development of liver failure and the onset of extra-hepatic organ failure, the potential therapeutic 'golden window.' Interventions during this period may prevent the development of complications and eventually change the course of the illness. Organ failure is suggested to be a central component of ACLF and may behave differently from chronic decompensated liver disease. Clear and practical criteria for the inclusion of organ failure are urgently needed so that patients with these life-threatening complications can be treated in a timely and appropriate manner. Recent studies suggested that the scoring systems evaluating organ failure [acute physiology, age and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores] work better than those addressing the severity of liver disease [Child-Pugh and model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores] in ACLF. However, a key problem remains that the former scoring systems are reflective of organ failure and not predictive, thus limiting their value as an early indication for intervention.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure: a new clinical entity

Patients hospitalized for an acute complication of cirrhosis who also have organ failure(s) are at high risk of short-term death. The term acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is used to characterize these patients. Until recently, there was no evidence-based definition of ACLF. The results of a large prospective observational European study called Chronic Liver Failure Consortium Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure in Cirrhosis study were published in 2013 establishing diagnostic criteria for ACLF in a large series of hospitalized patients who had an acute complication of cirrhosis. In addition, this study described the natural history of ACLF. According to the Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure in Cirrhosis study, ACLF is now considered a new clinical entity because it is distinct from traditional decompensated cirrhosis, based not only on the presence of organ failure(s) and high mortality rate but also on younger age, alcoholic etiology of cirrhosis, higher prevalence of some precipitating events (bacterial infections, active alcoholism), and higher level of systemic inflammation. ACLF is a new entity also because it cannot be explained entirely by severe sepsis or severe alcoholic hepatitis; a large proportion of cases are of unknown origin. ACLF should be considered as a whole that includes subcategories such as severe sepsis, severe alcoholic hepatitis, and others, which have yet to be defined. ACLF is a relatively common syndrome because it occurs in 31% of hospitalized patients with cirrhosis who have an acute complication of their liver disease. In these patients, ACLF is the most common cause of death.

Appropriate and timely antimicrobial therapy in cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis-associated septic shock: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP)-associated septic shock carries significant mortality in cirrhosis.

AIM

To determine whether practice-related aspects of antimicrobial therapy contribute to high mortality.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of all (n = 126) cirrhotics with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (neutrophil count >250 or positive ascitic culture)-associated septic shock (1996-2011) from an international, multicenter database. Appropriate antimicrobial therapy implied either in vitro activity against a subsequently isolated pathogen (culture positive) or empiric management consistent with broadly accepted norms (culture negative).

RESULTS

Overall hospital mortality was 81.8%. Comparing survivors (n = 23) with non-survivors (n = 103), survivors had lower Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHEII) (mean ± s.d.; 22 ± 7 vs. 32 ± 8) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) (24 ± 9 vs. 34 ± 11) scores and serum lactate on admission (4.9 ± 3.1 vs. 8.9  ± 5.3), P < 0.001 for all. Survivors were less likely to receive inappropriate initial antimicrobial therapy (0% vs. 25%, P = 0.013) and received appropriate antimicrobial therapy earlier [median 1.8 (1.1-5.2) vs. 9.5 (3.9-14.3) h, P < 0.001]. After adjusting for covariates, APACHEII [OR, odds ratio 1.45 (1.04-2.02) per 1 unit increment, P = 0.03], lactate [OR 2.34 (1.04-5.29) per unit increment, P = 0.04] and time delay to appropriate antimicrobials [OR 1.86 (1.10-3.14) per hour increment, P = 0.02] were significantly associated with increased mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Cirrhotic patients with septic shock secondary to spontaneous bacterial peritonitis have high mortality (>80%). Each hour of delay in appropriate antimicrobial therapy was associated with a 1.86 times increased hospital mortality. Admission APACHEII and serum lactate also significantly impacted hospital mortality. Earlier initiation of appropriate antimicrobial therapy could substantially improve outcome.