A resurgent HIV-1 epidemic among men who have sex with men in the era of potent antiretroviral therapy

Detection of Simian Immunodeficiency Virus in Semen, Urethra, and Male Reproductive Organs during Efficient Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy

A number of men receiving prolonged suppressive highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) still shed human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in semen. To investigate whether this seminal shedding may be due to poor drug penetration and/or viral production by long-lived cells within male genital tissues, we analyzed semen and reproductive tissues from macaques chronically infected with simian immunodeficiency virus mac251 (SIVmac251) who were treated for 4 months with HAART, which was intensified over the last 7 weeks with an integrase inhibitor. We showed that a subset of treated animals continued shedding SIV in semen despite efficient HAART. This shedding was not associated with low antiretroviral drug concentrations in semen or in testis, epididymis, seminal vesicles, and prostate. HAART had no significant impact on SIV RNA in the urethra, whereas it drastically reduced SIV RNA levels in the prostate and vas deferens and to a lesser extent in the epididymis and seminal vesicle. The only detectable SIV RNA-positive cells within the male genital tract after HAART were urethral macrophages. SIV DNA levels in genital tissues were not decreased by HAART, suggesting the presence throughout the male genital tract of nonproductively infected cells. In conclusion, our results demonstrate that 4 months of HAART induced variable and limited control of viral infection in the male reproductive organs, particularly in the urethra, and suggest that infected long-lived cells in the male genital tract may be involved in persistent seminal shedding during HAART. These results pave the way for further investigations of male genital organ infection in long-term-treated infected individuals.

IMPORTANCE

A substantial subset of men receiving prolonged HAART suppressing viral loads in the blood still harbor HIV in semen, and cases of sexual transmission have been reported. To understand the origin of this persistence, we analyzed the semen and male reproductive tissues from SIV-infected macaques treated with HAART. We demonstrated that persistent seminal shedding was not linked to poor drug penetration in semen or semen-producing prostate, seminal vesicle, epididymis, and testis. We revealed that HAART decreased SIV RNA to various extents in all male genital organs, with the exception of the urethra, in which SIV RNA(+) macrophages were observed despite HAART. Importantly, HAART did not impact SIV DNA levels in the male genital organs. These results suggest that infection of male genital organs, and particularly the urethra, could be involved in the release of virus in semen during HAART.

Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health.

HIV and risk behaviour among men who have sex with men in Slovakia (2008-2009)

The HIV infection remains a major public health issue in the world and especially in those countries where there exists unprotected sexual intercourse between people of the same sex. It is namely the category of men having sex with men (MSM) that still represents a group at high risk of being infected with HIV or transmitting the virus. The aim of our study was to present HIV 2nd generation surveillance data on MSM in Slovakia in the period between the years 2008 and 2009. Time-location sampling (TLS) was used to recruit participants and oral fluid samples together with completed anonymous questionnaires were collected simultaneously. The oral fluids were tested with use of the Genscreen HIV ½ version 2, (Bio-Rad) and Western Blot (Genlabs) diagnostic kits. The data analysis was performed using Stata version 8. Saliva testing revealed HIV prevalence of 6.1% (21/349) among MSM in Slovakia. 75% of HIV-positive cases were undiagnosed. The high-risk behaviour of MSM in respect to the number of their sexual partners as well as drug and condom usage did not correspond with their relatively high knowledge about HIV/AIDS. People's attitude towards MSM was found to be the worst in the religious context. Though our results reflect a relative good knowledge of MSM about HIV/AIDS infection, new HIV-positive cases and high-risk behaviour still appear, suggesting the need for more effective HIV prevention among members of this high-risk group in Slovakia.

HIV treatment as prevention: contradictory perspectives from dynamic mathematical models

The preventative effects of antiretroviral therapy for people with HIV have been debated since they were first raised. Models commenced studying the preventive effects of treatment in the 1990s, prior to initial public reports. However, the outcomes of the preventive effects of antiretroviral use were not consistent. Some outcomes of dynamic models were based on unfeasible assumptions, such as no consideration of drug resistance, behavior disinhibition, or economic inputs in poor countries, and unrealistic input variables, for example, overstated initiation time, adherence, coverage, and efficacy of treatment. This paper reviewed dynamic mathematical models to ascertain the complex effects of ART on HIV transmission. This review discusses more conservative inputs and outcomes relative to antiretroviral use in HIV infections in dynamic mathematical models. ART alone cannot eliminate HIV transmission.

Where does treatment optimism fit in? Examining factors associated with consistent condom use among people receiving antiretroviral treatment in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

In the era of highly active antiretrovirals, people living with HIV (PLWH) have resumed sexual activity in the context of longer and healthier lives, and thus the chances of transmitting the HIV virus, as well as the potential to be re-infected also increase. HIV treatment optimism has been found to be associated with sexual risk behaviors among PLWH in different settings. A cross sectional survey was conducted to examine the relationship between treatment optimism, safer sex burnout and consistent condom use as well as variables associated with treatment optimism in a sample of PLWH on antiretrovirals (ARVs) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (n = 604). Seventy-two percent of participants always used a condom in the last 6 months. Homosexual, bisexual, transexual persons were less likely to use condoms consistently than heterosexuals (AOR .58 CI .42-.78). Those who were treatment optimistic (AOR .46 CI .25-.88) were more likely not use a condom consistently in the past 6 months, as were participants who reported safer sex burnout (AOR .58 CI .36-.90). Sexual orientation, safer sex burnout, and lower education levels were significantly associated with higher treatment optimism in multivariate analysis. Study findings highlight the need to address psychosocial factors such as treatment optimism and safer sex burnout associated with lower consistent condom use among PLWH in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Eradicating syphilis, hepatitis C and HIV in MSM through frequent testing strategies

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The rates of sexual transmission of HIV, syphilis and hepatitis C in MSM are rising in most countries. Recent research has raised the question of whether increasing testing and treatment of these infections could substantially reduce their transmission.

RECENT FINDINGS

Although mathematical models suggest this strategy could be potentially effective in reducing transmission, there is currently very limited evidence that community-wide incidence has been curtailed by this strategy.

SUMMARY

If increasing in testing is to substantially reduce the incidence of these infections then significant increases in testing are required together with innovative approaches to testing and healthcare delivery. Notwithstanding this, relatively simple approaches to increasing testing are currently underutilized.

Transformation of HIV from pandemic to low-endemic levels: a public health approach to combination prevention

Large declines in HIV incidence have been reported since 2001, and scientific advances in HIV prevention provide strong hope to reduce incidence further. Now is the time to replace the quest for so-called silver bullets with a public health approach to combination prevention that understands that risk is not evenly distributed and that effective interventions can vary by risk profile. Different countries have different microepidemics, with very different levels of transmission and risk groups, changing over time. Therefore, focus should be on high-transmission geographies, people at highest risk for HIV, and the package of interventions that are most likely to have the largest effect in each different microepidemic. Building on the backbone of behaviour change, condom use, and medical male circumcision, as well as expanded use of antiretroviral drugs for infected people and pre-exposure prophylaxis for uninfected people at high risk of infection, it is now possible to consider the prospect of what would be one of the most remarkable achievements in the history of public health: reduction of HIV transmission from a pandemic to low-level endemicity.

Significance and clinical management of persistent low-level viremia and very-low-level viremia in HIV-1-infected patients

A goal of HIV therapy is to sustain suppression of the plasma viral load below the detection limits of clinical assays. However, widely followed treatment guidelines diverge in their interpretation and recommended management of persistent viremia of low magnitude, reflecting the limited evidence base for this common clinical finding. Here, we review the incidence, risk factors, and potential consequences of low-level HIV viremia (LLV; defined in this review as a viremia level of 50 to 500 copies/ml) and very-low-level viremia (VLLV; defined as a viremia level of <50 copies/ml detected by clinical assays that have quantification cutoffs of <50 copies/ml). Using this framework, we discuss practical issues related to the diagnosis and management of patients experiencing persistent LLV and VLLV. Compared to viral suppression at <50 or 40 copies/ml, persistent LLV is associated with increased risk of antiretroviral drug resistance and overt virologic failure. Higher immune activation and HIV transmission may be additional undesirable consequences in this population. It is uncertain whether LLV of <200 copies/ml confers independent risks, as this level of viremia may reflect assay-dependent artifacts or biologically meaningful events during suppression. Resistance genotyping should be considered in patients with persistent LLV when feasible, and treatment should be modified if resistance is detected. There is a dearth of clinical evidence to guide management when genotyping is not feasible. Increased availability of genotypic assays for samples with viral loads of <400 copies/ml is needed.

Update on HIV in Western Europe

HIV infection in Western Europe is mainly concentrated among men who have sex with men, heterosexuals who acquired HIV from sub-Saharan African countries, and in people who inject drugs. The rate of newly diagnosed cases of HIV has remained roughly stable since 2004 whereas the number of people living with HIV has slowly increased due to new infections and the success of antiretroviral therapy in prolonging life. An ageing population is gradually emerging that will require additional care. There are large differences across countries in HIV testing rates, proportions of people who present to care with low CD4+ cell counts, accessibility to treatment and care, and rates of retention once in care. Improved collection of HIV surveillance data will benefit countries and help to understand their epidemic better. However, social inequalities experienced by people with HIV still remain in some regions and urgently need to be addressed.

Prevalence of unprotected anal intercourse among men who have sex with men in China: an updated meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this review was to assess the prevalence of unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China.

METHODS

A comprehensive search was conducted including online databases like "Wanfang", Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure, PubMed and manual searches. Analyses using random-effects models were performed to estimate the prevalence of UAI among MSM in China.

RESULTS

Sixty-two articles reporting eighty-two studies were selected. The pooled prevalence rates of UAI with any male partner, with regular male partners, with non-regular male partners, with casual male partners, and with commercial male partners among MSM were 53%(95%CI: 51-56%), 45%(95%CI: 39-51%), 34%(95%CI: 24-45%), 33%(95%CI: 30-36%), 12% (95%CI: 5-26%), respectively. A cumulative meta-analysis found that the pooled UAI prevalence decreased over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the prevalence of UAI with male partners among MSM in China presents a decreasing trend over the past decade, the concomitant rise in HIV prevalence and incidence indicates that current prevention intervention efforts are insufficient to effectively contain the spread of HIV. Therefore, the persistently high prevalence of risky sexual behaviors underscores the need for innovative and effective prevention strategies among MSM.

Toward an endgame: finding and engaging people unaware of their HIV-1 infection in treatment and prevention

Epidemic modeling suggests that a major scale-up in HIV treatment could have a dramatic impact on HIV incidence. This has led both researchers and policymakers to set a goal of an "AIDS-Free Generation." One of the greatest obstacles to achieving this objective is the number of people with undiagnosed HIV infection. Despite recent innovations, new research strategies are needed to identify, engage, and successfully treat people who are unaware of their infection.

HPTN 071 (PopART): a cluster-randomized trial of the population impact of an HIV combination prevention intervention including universal testing and treatment: mathematical model

Background

The HPTN 052 trial confirmed that antiretroviral therapy (ART) can nearly eliminate HIV transmission from successfully treated HIV-infected individuals within couples. Here, we present the mathematical modeling used to inform the design and monitoring of a new trial aiming to test whether widespread provision of ART is feasible and can substantially reduce population-level HIV incidence.

Methods and Findings

The HPTN 071 (PopART) trial is a three-arm cluster-randomized trial of 21 large population clusters in Zambia and South Africa, starting in 2013. A combination prevention package including home-based voluntary testing and counseling, and ART for HIV positive individuals, will be delivered in arms A and B, with ART offered universally in arm A and according to national guidelines in arm B. Arm C will be the control arm. The primary endpoint is the cumulative three-year HIV incidence.

We developed a mathematical model of heterosexual HIV transmission, informed by recent data on HIV-1 natural history. We focused on realistically modeling the intervention package. Parameters were calibrated to data previously collected in these communities and national surveillance data.

We predict that, if targets are reached, HIV incidence over three years will drop by >60% in arm A and >25% in arm B, relative to arm C. The considerable uncertainty in the predicted reduction in incidence justifies the need for a trial. The main drivers of this uncertainty are possible community-level behavioral changes associated with the intervention, uptake of testing and treatment, as well as ART retention and adherence.

Conclusions

The HPTN 071 (PopART) trial intervention could reduce HIV population-level incidence by >60% over three years. This intervention could serve as a paradigm for national or supra-national implementation. Our analysis highlights the role mathematical modeling can play in trial development and monitoring, and more widely in evaluating the impact of treatment as prevention.

Can treatment-based HIV prevention curb the epidemic among gay and other men who have sex with men? A narrative synthesis of increasing evidence for moderating and countervailing effects

As HIV epidemics among gay and other men who have sex with men (GMSM) persist worldwide, the importance of novel prevention approaches is recognised. Evidence that antiretroviral therapy (ART) can decrease the likelihood of infection is informing emerging HIV prevention approaches, encompassing early initiation of treatment as prevention by people living with HIV and use of antiretroviral drugs as pre-exposure prophylaxis for people presumed to be uninfected. Despite widespread excitement, robust evidence of the beneficial effects of ART-based HIV prevention for GMSM remains limited. Also, theoretical models project widely varying effects of ART-based prevention on the future course of HIV epidemics among GMSM, drawing attention to the possible moderating role of differences in the achievements of local HIV responses and the critical importance of sustained protective sexual practices into the future. Ecological analyses and simulations of ongoing epidemics in major gay communities illustrate that the preventive effects of ART in many settings are being offset by increased sexual risk-taking, as reflected in stable or increasing HIV infection rates. Also, the effects of scaling up HIV testing and treatment among GMSM in settings that are often considered prime examples of the success of ART-based prevention may be levelling as ‘scope for improvement’ diminishes. ART-based approaches further extend the HIV prevention toolkit and substantially increase people’s options to protect themselves and others. The future impact of ART-based prevention on HIV epidemics among GMSM ultimately depends on whether heralded responses offset, attenuate or compound the ongoing social and behavioural changes that drive increased sexual risk.

Antiretroviral therapy for prevention of HIV transmission: implications for Europe

The aim of this review is to summarise the evidence on the population-level effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in preventing HIV infections, and to discuss potential implications in the European context of recommending starting ART when the CD4 count is above 350 cells/mm3. The ability of ART to reduce the risk of HIV transmission has been reported in observational studies and in a randomised controlled trial (HPTN 052), in which ART initiation reduced HIV transmission by 96% within serodiscordant couples. As yet, there is no direct evidence for such an effect among men having sex with men or people who inject drugs. HPTN 052 led international organisations to develop recommendations with a higher CD4 threshold for ART initiation. However, there remains a lack of strong evidence of clinical benefit for HIV-positive individuals starting ART with CD4 count above 350 cells/mm3. The main goal of ART provision should be to increase ART coverage for all those in need, based on the current guidelines, and the offer of ART to those who wish to reduce infectivity; increased HIV testing is therefore a key requirement. Other proven prevention means such as condom use and harm reduction for people who inject drugs remain critical.

Location-based HIV behavioural surveillance among MSM in Auckland, New Zealand 2002-2011: condom use stable and more HIV testing

OBJECTIVES

Over the last decade, annual HIV diagnoses among men who have sex with men (MSM) in New Zealand increased, then stabilised in 2006 and have not increased further. The aim was to examine trends in behaviours in order to better understand this pattern and inform community-based prevention.

METHODS

From 2002 to 2011, we conducted five repeat cross-sectional behavioural surveillance surveys among MSM at community locations in Auckland (fair day, gay bars, sex-on-site venues; n=6091). Participation was anonymous and self-completed. Recruitment methods were consistent at each round.

RESULTS

Overall, the samples became more ethnically diverse and less gay community attached over time. Condom use during anal intercourse was stable across three partnering contexts (casual, current regular fuckbuddy, current regular boyfriend), with a drop among casual contacts in 2011 only. In the 6 months prior to surveys, there was a gradual decline over time in the proportion reporting >20 male partners, an increase in acquiring partners from the internet and increases in engagement in anal intercourse in some partnering contexts. HIV testing in the 12 months prior to surveys rose from 35.1% in 2002 to 50.4% in 2011, mostly from 2008.

CONCLUSIONS

This first indepth examination of trends in HIV-related behaviours among five consecutive large and diverse samples of MSM in New Zealand does not suggest condom use is declining. However, subtle changes in sexual networks and partnering may be altering the epidemic determinants in this population and increasing exposure.

Sexual behaviour in a rural high HIV prevalence South African community: time trends in the antiretroviral treatment era

Objectives:

Data from generalized epidemic settings have consistently found that patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduce sexual risk behaviours, but how sexual behaviour changes in the general population in response to ART availability, including amongst HIV-uninfected and undiagnosed adults, has not been characterized in these settings.

Design:

General population open cohort.

Methods:

We report trends in sexual behaviour indicators for men aged 17–54 years and women aged 17–49 years in rural KwaZulu-Natal province, based on annual sexual behaviour surveys during ART scale-up from 2005 to 2011. Estimates are adjusted for survey nonparticipation and nonresponse to individual survey items using inverse probability weighting and multiple imputation. Trends are presented by HIV status, knowledge of status, age and marital status.

Results:

Reports of condom use at last sex with a regular partner increased by 2.6% points per year [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5%, 3.7%] for men and 4.1% per year (3.0%, 5.3%) for women. Condom use at last sex with a casual partner was high and did not change significantly over the period for both sexes. There were statistically significant declines in the percentage reporting multiple partnerships in the last year and the point prevalence of concurrency. Trends within subgroups were generally consistent with overall estimates.

Conclusion:

We find no evidence of increased sexual risk-taking following ART availability and protective changes in some behaviours, suggesting that general trends in sexual behaviour are not counter-acting preventive effects of HIV treatment. Continued monitoring of population-level sexual behaviour indicators will be essential to interpret the success of combination-prevention programmes.

Sexually transmitted infections screening at HIV treatment centers for MSM can be cost-effective

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of anorectal chlamydia screening among men who have sex with men (MSM) in care at HIV treatment centers.

DESIGN

Transmission model combined with economic analysis over a 20-year period.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

MSM in care at HIV treatment centers.

INTERVENTION

Once-yearly or twice-yearly screening for anorectal chlamydia among MSM in care at HIV treatment centers.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Averted HIV and chlamydia infections; discounted quality-adjusted life-years and costs; incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER).

RESULTS

Costs will be saved by routine chlamydia screening of MSM in care at HIV treatment centers if these patients seek little or no screening elsewhere. Nonroutine screening is considerably more expensive than routine screening offered within a scheduled visit. Adding once-yearly chlamydia screening for MSM in care at HIV treatment centers is cost saving when 30% or fewer of those men seek once-yearly screening elsewhere (1.5 to 8.1 million euro saved). Twice-yearly routine screening at HIV treatment centers is cost-effective only when routine screening takes place without additional nonroutine screening (1.9 million euro saved).

CONCLUSIONS

Adding annual chlamydia screening to the HIV consultation will be cost saving as long as only a limited proportion of men are nonroutinely screened. The ICER was most sensitive to the percentage of MSM that continue to be screened elsewhere.

Prospects of elimination of HIV with test-and-treat strategy

Recently, there has been much debate about the prospects of eliminating HIV from high endemic countries by a test-and-treat strategy. This strategy entails regular HIV testing in the entire population and starting antiretroviral treatment immediately in all who are found to be HIV infected. We present the concept of the elimination threshold and investigate under what conditions of treatment uptake and dropout elimination of HIV is feasible. We used a deterministic model incorporating an accurate description of disease progression and variable infectivity. We derived explicit expressions for the basic reproduction number and the elimination threshold. Using estimates of exponential growth rates of HIV during the initial phase of epidemics, we investigated for which populations elimination is within reach. The concept of the elimination threshold allows an assessment of the prospects of elimination of HIV from information in the early phase of the epidemic. The relative elimination threshold quantifies prospects of elimination independently of the details of the transmission dynamics. Elimination of HIV by test-and-treat is only feasible for populations with very low reproduction numbers or if the reproduction number is lowered significantly as a result of additional interventions. Allowing low infectiousness during primary infection, the likelihood of elimination becomes somewhat higher. The elimination threshold is a powerful tool for assessing prospects of elimination from available data on epidemic growth rates of HIV. Empirical estimates of the epidemic growth rate from phylogenetic studies were used to assess the potential for elimination in specific populations.

Network effects of risk behavior change following prophylactic interventions

We formulated a network-based model to understand how risk behavior change in conjunction with failure of prophylactic interventions can lead to unintended outcomes where "less (intervention) is more (effective)." Our model captures the distinction between one- and two-sided risk behavior change. In one-sided situations (e.g. influenza/H1N1) it is sufficient for either individual in an interaction to exhibit risk behavior change whereas in two-sided situations (e.g. AIDS/HIV) it is necessary for both individuals in the interaction to exhibit risk behavior change, for a potential transmission of the disease. A central discovery is that this phenomenon occurs at differing levels of intervention coverage depending upon the "sidedness" of the interaction. We find that for one-sided interactions, sufficiently high vaccination coverage is necessary for mitigating the effects of risk behavior; for two-sided interactions, it is essential to combine prophylactic treatments with programs aimed at reducing risky behavior. Furthermore, again dependent on the "sidedness," targeting highly connected nodes can be strictly worse than uniformly random interventions at the same level of coverage.

Future of phylogeny in HIV prevention

The success of the HIV Prevention Trials Network 052 trial has led to revisions in HIV-1 treatment guidelines. Antiretroviral therapy may reduce the risk of HIV-1 transmissions at the population level. The design of successful treatment as prevention interventions will be predicated on a comprehensive understanding of the spatial, temporal, and biological dynamics of heterosexual men who have sex with men and intravenous drug user epidemics. Viral phylogenetics can capture the underlying structure of transmission networks based on the genetic interrelatedness of viral sequences and cluster networks that could not be otherwise identified. This article describes the phylogenetic expansion of the Montreal men who have sex with men epidemic over the last decade. High rates of coclustering of primary infections are associated with 1 infection leading to 13 onward transmissions. Phylogeny substantiates the role of primary and recent stage infection in transmission dynamics, underlying the importance of timely diagnosis and immediate antiretroviral therapy initiation to avert transmission cascades.

Changing risk behaviours and the HIV epidemic: a mathematical analysis in the context of treatment as prevention

Background

Expanding access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has become an important approach to HIV prevention in recent years. Previous studies suggest that concomitant changes in risk behaviours may either help or hinder programs that use a Treatment as Prevention strategy.

Analysis

We consider HIV-related risk behaviour as a social contagion in a deterministic compartmental model, which treats risk behaviour and HIV infection as linked processes, where acquiring risk behaviour is a prerequisite for contracting HIV. The equilibrium behaviour of the model is analysed to determine epidemic outcomes under conditions of expanding HAART coverage along with risk behaviours that change with HAART coverage. We determined the potential impact of changes in risk behaviour on the outcomes of Treatment as Prevention strategies. Model results show that HIV incidence and prevalence decline only above threshold levels of HAART coverage, which depends strongly on risk behaviour parameter values. Expanding HAART coverage with simultaneous reduction in risk behaviour act synergistically to accelerate the drop in HIV incidence and prevalence. Above the thresholds, additional HAART coverage is always sufficient to reverse the impact of HAART optimism on incidence and prevalence. Applying the model to an HIV epidemic in Vancouver, Canada, showed no evidence of HAART optimism in that setting.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that Treatment as Prevention has significant potential for controlling the HIV epidemic once HAART coverage reaches a threshold. Furthermore, expanding HAART coverage combined with interventions targeting risk behaviours amplify the preventive impact, potentially driving the HIV epidemic to elimination.

Increased HIV incidence in men who have sex with men despite high levels of ART-induced viral suppression: analysis of an extensively documented epidemic

BACKGROUND

There is interest in expanding ART to prevent HIV transmission, but in the group with the highest levels of ART use, men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM), numbers of new infections diagnosed each year have not decreased as ARTcoverage has increased for reasons which remain unclear.

METHODS

We analysed data on the HIV-epidemic in MSM in the UK from a range of sources using an individual-based simulation model. Model runs using parameter sets found to result in good model fit were used to infer changes in HIV-incidence and risk behaviour.

RESULTS

HIV-incidence has increased (estimated mean incidence 0.30/100 person-years 1990-1997, 0.45/100 py 1998-2010), associated with a modest (26%) rise in condomless sex. We also explored counter-factual scenarios: had ART not been introduced, but the rise in condomless sex had still occurred, then incidence 2006-2010 was 68% higher; a policy of ART initiation in all diagnosed with HIV from 2001 resulted in 32% lower incidence; had levels of HIV testing been higher (68% tested/year instead of 25%) incidence was 25% lower; a combination of higher testing and ART at diagnosis resulted in 62% lower incidence; cessation of all condom use in 2000 resulted in a 424% increase in incidence. In 2010, we estimate that undiagnosed men, the majority in primary infection, accounted for 82% of new infections.

CONCLUSION

A rise in HIV-incidence has occurred in MSM in the UK despite an only modest increase in levels of condomless sex and high coverage of ART. ART has almost certainly exerted a limiting effect on incidence. Much higher rates of HIV testing combined with initiation of ART at diagnosis would be likely to lead to substantial reductions in HIV incidence. Increased condom use should be promoted to avoid the erosion of the benefits of ART and to prevent other serious sexually transmitted infections.

HIV incidence in men who have sex with men in England and Wales 2001-10: a nationwide population study

Background

Control of HIV transmission could be achievable through an expansion of HIV testing of at-risk populations together with ready access and adherence to antiretroviral therapy. To examine whether increases in testing rates and antiretroviral therapy coverage correspond to the control of HIV transmission, we estimated HIV incidence in men who have sex with men (MSM) in England and Wales since 2001.

Methods

A CD4-staged back-calculation model of HIV incidence was used to disentangle the competing contributions of time-varying rates of diagnosis and HIV incidence to observed HIV diagnoses. Estimated trends in time to diagnosis, incidence, and undiagnosed infection in MSM were interpreted against a backdrop of increased HIV testing rates and antiretroviral-therapy coverage over the period 2001–10.

Findings

The observed 3·7 fold expansion in HIV testing in MSM was mirrored by a decline in the estimated mean time-to-diagnosis interval from 4·0 years (95% credible interval [CrI] 3·8–4·2) in 2001 to 3·2 years (2·6–3·8) by the end of 2010. However, neither HIV incidence (2300–2500 annual infections) nor the number of undiagnosed HIV infections (7370, 95% CrI 6990–7800, in 2001, and 7690, 5460–10 580, in 2010) changed throughout the decade, despite an increase in antiretroviral uptake from 69% in 2001 to 80% in 2010.

Interpretation

CD4 cell counts at HIV diagnosis are fundamental to the production of robust estimates of incidence based on HIV diagnosis data. Improved frequency and targeting of HIV testing, as well as the introduction of ART at higher CD4 counts than is currently recommended, could begin a decline in HIV transmission among MSM in England and Wales.

Funding

UK Medical Research Council, UK Health Protection Agency.

Heterosexual HIV-1 infectiousness and antiretroviral use: systematic review of prospective studies of discordant couples

BACKGROUND

Recent studies have estimated the reduction in HIV-1 infectiousness with antiretroviral therapy (ART), but high-quality studies such as randomized controlled trials, accompanied by rigorous adherence counseling, are likely to overestimate the effectiveness of treatment-as-prevention in real-life settings.

METHODS

We attempted to summarize the effect of ART on HIV transmission by undertaking a systematic review and meta-analysis of HIV-1 infectiousness per heterosexual partnership (incidence rate and cumulative incidence over study follow-up) estimated from prospective studies of discordant couples. We used random-effects Poisson regression models to obtain summary estimates. When possible, the analyses were further stratified by direction of transmission (man-to-woman or woman-to-man) and economic setting (high- or low-income countries). Potential causes of heterogeneity of estimates were explored through subgroup analyses.

RESULTS

Fifty publications were included. Nine allowed comparison between ART and non-ART users within studies (ART-stratified studies), in which summary incidence rates were 3.6/100 person-years (95% confidence interval = 2.0-6.5) and 0.2/100 person-years (0.07-0.7) for non-ART- and ART-using couples, respectively (P < 0.001), constituting a 91% (79-96%) reduction in per-partner HIV-1 incidence rate with ART use. The 41 studies that did not stratify by ART use provided estimates with high levels of heterogeneity (I statistic) and few reported levels of ART use, making interpretation difficult. Nevertheless, estimates tended to be lower with ART use. Infectiousness tended to be higher for low-income than high-income settings, but there was no clear pattern by direction of transmission (man-to-woman and woman-to-man).

CONCLUSIONS

ART substantially reduces HIV-1 infectiousness within discordant couples, based on observational studies, and could play a major part in HIV-1 prevention efforts. However, the non-zero risk from partners receiving ART demonstrates that appropriate counseling and other risk-reduction strategies for discordant couples are still required. Additional estimates of ART effectiveness by adherence level from real-life settings will be important, especially for persons starting treatment early without symptoms.

Risk reduction practices in men who have sex with men in Switzerland: serosorting, strategic positioning, and withdrawal before ejaculation

The aim of this study was to identify predictors of intentional use of the HIV risk reduction practices of serosorting, strategic positioning, and withdrawal before ejaculation during unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) with casual partners. A cross-sectional survey pertaining to the Swiss HIV behavioral surveillance system, using an anonymous self-administered questionnaire, was conducted in 2007 in a self-selected sample of men having sex with other men (MSM). Analysis was restricted to participants with UAI with casual partner(s) (N = 410). Logistic regression was used to estimate factors associated with intentional use of serosorting, strategic positioning, and withdrawal before ejaculation. In the previous 12 months, 71% of participants reported having UAI with a casual partner of different or unknown HIV-status. Of these, 47% reported practicing withdrawal, 38% serosorting, and 25% strategic positioning. In the 319 participants with known HIV-status, serosorting was associated with frequent Internet use to find partners (OR = 2.32), STI (OR = 2.07), and HIV testing in the past 12 months (OR = 1.81). Strategic positioning was associated with HIV-status (OR = 0.13) and having UAI with a partner of different or unknown HIV-status (OR = 3.57). Withdrawal was more frequently practiced by HIV-negative participants or participants reporting high numbers of sexual partners (OR = 2.48) and having UAI with a partner of unknown or different serostatus (OR = 2.08). Risk reduction practices are widely used by MSM, each practice having its own specificities. Further research is needed to determine the contextual factors surrounding harm reduction practices, particularly the strategic or opportunistic nature of their use.

Resurgence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Switzerland: mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

New HIV infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased in Switzerland since 2000 despite combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The objectives of this mathematical modelling study were: to describe the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland using national data; to explore the effects of hypothetical prevention scenarios; and to conduct a multivariate sensitivity analysis.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The model describes HIV transmission, progression and the effects of cART using differential equations. The model was fitted to Swiss HIV and AIDS surveillance data and twelve unknown parameters were estimated. Predicted numbers of diagnosed HIV infections and AIDS cases fitted the observed data well. By the end of 2010, an estimated 13.5% (95% CI 12.5, 14.6%) of all HIV-infected MSM were undiagnosed and accounted for 81.8% (95% CI 81.1, 82.4%) of new HIV infections. The transmission rate was at its lowest from 1995-1999, with a nadir of 46 incident HIV infections in 1999, but increased from 2000. The estimated number of new infections continued to increase to more than 250 in 2010, although the reproduction number was still below the epidemic threshold. Prevention scenarios included temporary reductions in risk behaviour, annual test and treat, and reduction in risk behaviour to levels observed earlier in the epidemic. These led to predicted reductions in new infections from 2 to 26% by 2020. Parameters related to disease progression and relative infectiousness at different HIV stages had the greatest influence on estimates of the net transmission rate.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The model outputs suggest that the increase in HIV transmission amongst MSM in Switzerland is the result of continuing risky sexual behaviour, particularly by those unaware of their infection status. Long term reductions in the incidence of HIV infection in MSM in Switzerland will require increased and sustained uptake of effective interventions.

Increasing sexual risk behaviour among Dutch men who have sex with men: mathematical models versus prospective cohort data

Changes in risk behaviour among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Netherlands were estimated by fitting a mathematical model to annual HIV and AIDS diagnoses in the period 1980-2009 and, independently, from rates of unprotected anal intercourse in a prospective cohort study in Amsterdam. The agreement between the two approaches was very good, confirming that in terms of incidence, increasing risk behaviour between MSM is offsetting benefits offered by enhanced testing and treatment.

Antiviral agents and HIV prevention: controversies, conflicts, and consensus

Antiviral agents can be used to prevent HIV transmission before exposure as preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP), after exposure as postexposure prophylaxis, and as treatment of infected people for secondary prevention. Considerable research has shed new light on antiviral agents for PrEP and for prevention of secondary HIV transmission. While promising results have emerged from several PrEP trials, the challenges of poor adherence among HIV-negative clients and possible increase in sexual risk behaviors remain a concern. In addition, a broader pipeline of antiviral agents for PrEP that focuses on genital tract pharmacology and safety and resistance issues must be developed. Antiretroviral drugs have also been used to prevent HIV transmission from HIV-infected patients to their HIV-discordant sexual partners. The HIV Prevention Trials Network 052 trial demonstrated nearly complete prevention of HIV transmission by early treatment of infection, but the generalizability of the results to other risk groups - including intravenous drug users and MSM - has not been determined. Most importantly, the best strategy for use of antiretroviral agents to reduce the spread of HIV at either the individual level or the population level has not been developed, and remains the ultimate goal of this area of investigation.

Highly active antiretroviral therapy does not completely suppress HIV in semen of sexually active HIV-infected men who have sex with men

OBJECTIVE

Although HAART can suppress genital shedding and sexual transmission of HIV, men who have sex with men (MSM) have experienced a resurgent HIV epidemic in the HAART era. Many HIV-infected MSM continue to engage in unsafe sex, and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) or other factors may promote genital HIV shedding and transmission in this population despite HAART. In this study, we determined the prevalence of seminal HIV shedding in HIV-infected MSM on stable HAART, and its relationship with a number of clinical, behavioral and biological variables.

DESIGN

Sexually active HIV-infected men using HAART were recruited from an MSM health clinic to provide semen and blood samples.

METHODS

HIV levels were assessed in paired semen and blood samples by PCR. Clinical and behavioral data were obtained from medical records and questionnaires. Herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2) serostatus, seminal HSV-2 DNA, and markers of genital inflammation were measured using standard laboratory methods.

RESULTS

Overall, HIV-1 was detected in 18 of 101 (18%) blood and 30 of 101 (30%) semen samples. Of 83 men with undetectable HIV in blood plasma, 25% had HIV in semen with copy numbers ranging from 80 to 2560. Multivariate analysis identified STI/urethritis (P = 0.003), tumor necrosis factor α (P = 0.0003), and unprotected insertive anal sex with an HIV-infected partner (P = 0.007) as independent predictors of seminal HIV detection.

CONCLUSION

STIs and genital inflammation can partially override the suppressive effect of HAART on seminal HIV shedding in sexually active HIV-infected MSM. Low seminal HIV titers could potentially pose a transmission risk in MSM, who are highly susceptible to HIV infection.

Biomarker-based HIV incidence in a community sample of men who have sex with men in Paris, France

BACKGROUND

Population-based estimates of HIV incidence in France have revealed that men who have sex with men (MSM) are the most affected population and contribute to nearly half of new infections each year. We sought to estimate HIV incidence among sexually active MSM in Paris gay community social venues.

METHODOLOGY/ PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 2009 in a sample of commercial venues such as bars, saunas and backrooms. We collected a behavioural questionnaire and blood sample. Specimens were tested for HIV infection and positive specimens then tested for recent infection by the enzyme immunoassay for recent HIV-1 infection (EIA-RI). We assessed the presence of antiretroviral therapy among infected individuals to rule out treated patients in the algorithm that determined recent infection. Biomarker-based cross-sectional incidence estimates were calculated. We enrolled 886 MSM participants among which 157 (18%) tested HIV positive. In positive individuals who knew they were infected, 75% of EIA-RI positive results were due to ART. Of 157 HIV positive specimens, 15 were deemed to be recently infected. The overall HIV incidence was estimated at 3.8% person-years (py) [95%CI: 1.5-6.2]. Although differences were not significant, incidence was estimated to be 3.5% py [0.1-6.1] in men having had a negative HIV test in previous year and 4.8% py [0.1-10.6] in men having had their last HIV test more than one year before the survey, or never tested. Incidence was estimated at 4.1% py [0-8.3] in men under 35 years and 2.5% py [0-5.4] in older men.

CONCLUSIONS/ SIGNIFICANCE

This is the first community-based survey to estimate HIV incidence among MSM in France. It includes ART detection and reveals a high level of HIV transmission in sexually active individuals, despite a high uptake of HIV testing. These data call for effective prevention programs targeting MSM engaged in high-risk behaviours.

Prevention of sexual transmission of HIV: real results, science progressing, societies remaining behind

HIV spread has reached a turning point following decades of increasing and sustained incidence. An effective vaccine has not been developed, but critical breakthroughs with prevention based on antiretroviral treatment are promising. The new prevention technologies will have to be combined with condoms and incorporated into the mixes of combination prevention approaches that are tailored to the local epidemic and context. To address the implementation gap, more political will and leadership will be needed to overcome the socio-cultural, legal or religious barriers to prevention. We have learned that the generation of demand for HIV prevention is not easy, as for health promotion in general. Despite optimism about treatment as prevention, many western countries are facing an increase in new HIV cases, and HIV is no longer a collective concern. If we manage to find common ground on combination prevention, customize approaches to people's needs and exercise technical and political leadership, our decade may see the beginning of the end of the epidemic.

Five-year monitoring of a gay-friendly voluntary counselling and testing facility in Switzerland: who got tested and why?

Background

An increase in new HIV cases among men who have sex with men (MSM) has been reported in Switzerland since 2001. A rapid result HIV testing for MSM through voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) facility (“Checkpoint”) was opened in Geneva in 2005. This gay-friendly facility, the first to open in Switzerland, provides testing for sexually transmitted infections (STI) and rapid result HIV testing and counselling. Our objective was to analyze Checkpoint’s activity over its first five years of activity and its ability to attract at-risk MSM.

Methods

We used routine data collected anonymously about the facility activity (number of clients, number of tests, and test results) and about the characteristics of the clientele (sociodemographic data, sexual risk behaviour, and reasons for testing) from 2005 to 2009.

Results

The yearly number of HIV tests performed increased from 249 in 2005 to 561 in 2009. The annual proportion of positive tests among tests performed varied between 2% and 3%. Among MSM clients, the median annual number of anal intercourse (AI) partners was three. Roughly 30% of all MSM clients had at least one unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) experience in the previous 12 months with a partner of different/unknown HIV status.

The main reason for testing in 2007, 2008, and 2009 was “sexual risk exposure” (~40%), followed by “routine” testing (~30%) and “condom stopping in the beginning of a new steady relationship” (~10%). Clients who came to the facility after a sexual risk exposure, compared to clients who came for "routine testing" or "condom stopping" reasons, had the highest number of AI partners in the previous 12 months, were more likely to have had UAI with a partner of different/unknown HIV status in the previous 12 months (respectively 57.3%, 12.5%, 23.5%), more likely to have had an STI diagnosed in the past (41.6%, 32.2%, 22.9%), and more likely to report recent feelings of sadness or depression (42.6%; 32.8%, 18.5%).

Conclusion

Many of Checkpoint's clients reported elevated sexual risk exposure and risk factors, and the annual proportion of new HIV cases in the facility is stable. This VCT facility attracts the intended population and appears to be a useful tool contributing to the fight against the HIV epidemic among MSM in Switzerland.

Treatment as prevention: translating efficacy trial results to population effectiveness

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The understanding that antiretroviral treatment prevents HIV transmission through suppression of viral load provides significant new opportunities in HIV prevention. However, knowledge of efficacy is only a first step to having an impact on the spread of HIV at a population level, the ultimate goal of all primary prevention modalities. This review explores what we know about treatment as prevention and how it could be used as a tool, as part of a combination approach, in the global response to HIV.

RECENT FINDINGS

Efficacy data show that treatment as prevention works at high levels in trial conditions in stable serodiscordant couples; a finding that can reasonably be generalized to other populations at risk of transmitting the virus. Modelling shows that treatment as prevention should have an impact, but the extent of this depends primarily upon whether optimistic or pessimistic assumptions are made about the programmatic use of antiretrovirals (ARVs).

SUMMARY

We describe research questions that need to be addressed in developing optimal programmatic public health treatment strategies including how best to target and implement the use of treatment as prevention, how to balance the needs of treatment for the individual patients' clinical benefit against population level benefits, and how to create programmes that are able to link people to and retain them in care.

Reaping the prevention benefits of highly active antiretroviral treatment: policy implications of HIV Prevention Trials Network 052

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review explores the policy implications of findings from the HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN 052) treatment as prevention (TasP) study.

RECENT FINDINGS

To date, the potential of antiretrovirals to prevent sexual transmission of HIV by infected persons has been grounded in observational cohort, ecological, mathematical modeling, and meta-analytic studies. HPTN 052 represents the first randomized controlled trial to test the secondary prevention benefit of HIV transmission using antiretroviral treatment in largely asymptomatic persons with high CD4 cell counts.

SUMMARY

The US National HIV/AIDS Strategy has among its key goals the reduction of incident HIV infections, improved access to quality care and associated outcomes, and the reduction in HIV-associated health disparities and inequities. HPTN 052 demonstrates that providing TasP, in combination with other effective prevention strategies offers the promise of achieving these life-saving goals. But HPTN 052 also highlights the need for cautious optimism and underscores the importance of addressing current gaps in the HIV prevention, treatment, and care continuum in order for 'TasP' strategies to achieve their full potential. Among these are necessary improvements in the capacity to expand HIV testing, facilitate effective linkage and retention in care, and improve treatment initiation, maintenance, and virus suppression.

Agent-based and phylogenetic analyses reveal how HIV-1 moves between risk groups: injecting drug users sustain the heterosexual epidemic in Latvia

Injecting drug users (IDUs) are a driving force for the spread of HIV-1 in Latvia and other Baltic States, accounting for a majority of cases. However, in recent years, heterosexual cases have increased disproportionately. It is unclear how the changes in incidence patterns in Latvia can be explained, and how important IDUs are for the heterosexual sub-epidemic. We introduce a novel epidemic model and use phylogenetic analyses in parallel to examine the spread of HIV-1 in Latvia between 1987 and 2010. Using a hybrid framework with a mean-field description for the susceptible population and an agent-based model for the infecteds, we track infected individuals and follow transmission histories dynamically formed during the simulation. The agent-based simulations and the phylogenetic analysis show that more than half of the heterosexual transmissions in Latvia were caused by IDU, which sustain the heterosexual epidemic. Indeed, we find that heterosexual clusters are characterized by short transmission chains with up to 63% of the chains dying out after the first introduction. In the simulations, the distribution of transmission chain sizes follows a power law distribution, which is confirmed by the phylogenetic data. Our models indicate that frequent introductions reduced the extinction probability of an autonomously spreading heterosexual HIV-1 epidemic, which now has the potential to dominate the spread of the overall epidemic in the future. Furthermore, our model shows that social heterogeneity of the susceptible population can explain the shift in HIV-1 incidence in Latvia over the course of the epidemic. Thus, the decrease in IDU incidence may be due to local heterogeneities in transmission, rather than the implementation of control measures. Increases in susceptibles, through social or geographic movement of IDU, could lead to a boost in HIV-1 infections in this risk group. Targeting individuals that bridge social groups would help prevent further spread of the epidemic.

HIV prevalence among men who have sex with men in New Zealand 1985–2009: 25 years of public health monitoring

Annual population-based estimates of the number of men who have sex with men (MSM) with diagnosed HIV infection (HIV prevalence pool), and the proportion of all MSM this represents (HIV prevalence), have been insufficiently described over the long term. We investigated the dynamic effects of ongoing HIV diagnoses, lower mortality due to treatment and growth in the MSM population over time on these two epidemic indicators using national HIV/AIDS surveillance data in New Zealand, 1985–2009. The diagnosed HIV prevalence pool rose 79% between 1989 and 1999, and 137% between 1999 and 2009. Estimates of diagnosed HIV prevalence as a proportion of MSM were 0.2% of MSM in 1985, and were between 1.5% and 5.0% of MSM by 2009. New Zealand continues to have a relatively low-prevalence HIV epidemic among MSM; however, the number of MSM living with diagnosed infection is growing rapidly 25 years after HIV testing was introduced.

Less decrease in risk behaviour from pre-HIV to post-HIV seroconversion among MSM in the combination antiretroviral therapy era compared with the pre-combination antiretroviral therapy era

OBJECTIVE

To gain insight in the ongoing HIV transmission, we compared sexual risk behaviour pre-HIV and post-HIV seroconversion in 206 MSM participating in the Amsterdam Cohort Studies (1984-2008) before and after the introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART).

DESIGN AND METHODS

MSM completed behavioural questionnaires and were tested for HIV antibodies every 6 months. Trends in anal intercourse and number of sex partners from 4 years before HIV seroconversion until 4 years after diagnosis were analysed with latent class random effects logistic regression models.

RESULTS

The risk of having unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) 1 year after HIV diagnosis decreased significantly when compared with 1 year before diagnosis in both the pre-cART era [difference, 30%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 22-36%] and cART era (difference, 19%; 95% CI, 9-30%). In contrast to a continuing decrease of UAI in the pre-cART era, the probability of UAI in the cART era increased again to preseroconversion levels (61%; 95% CI, 48-74%)) 4 years after diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

This study provides evidence that recently seroconverted MSM reduce their sexual risk behaviour following HIV diagnosis both in the pre-cART as well as the cART period. However, in the cART period this reduction in sexual risk behaviour is less and returns to pre-cART levels within 4 years. These findings not only confirm the need for early HIV testing but also make it clear that much more effort should go into identifying, counselling, and possibly treating recently seroconverted MSM who have been found to be one of the most important drivers of HIV transmission among MSM.

HIV treatment as prevention: natural experiments highlight limits of antiretroviral treatment as HIV prevention

There is growing enthusiasm for increasing coverage of antiretroviral treatment among HIV-infected people for the purposes of preventing ongoing transmission. Treatment as prevention will face a number of barriers when implemented in real world populations, which will likely lead to the effectiveness of this strategy being lower than proposed by optimistic modelling scenarios or ideal clinical trial settings. Some settings, as part of their prevention and treatment strategies, have already attained rates of HIV testing and use of antiretroviral therapy--with high levels of viral suppression--that many countries would aspire to as targets for a treatment-as-prevention strategy. This review examines a number of these "natural experiments", namely, British Columbia, San Francisco, France, and Australia, to provide commentary on whether treatment as prevention has worked in real world populations. This review suggests that the population-level impact of this strategy is likely to be considerably less than as inferred from ideal conditions.

HIV treatment as prevention: systematic comparison of mathematical models of the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Many mathematical models have investigated the impact of expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on new HIV infections. Comparing results and conclusions across models is challenging because models have addressed slightly different questions and have reported different outcome metrics. This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Twelve independent mathematical models evaluated a set of standardised ART intervention scenarios in South Africa and reported a common set of outputs. Intervention scenarios systematically varied the CD4 count threshold for treatment eligibility, access to treatment, and programme retention. For a scenario in which 80% of HIV-infected individuals start treatment on average 1 y after their CD4 count drops below 350 cells/µl and 85% remain on treatment after 3 y, the models projected that HIV incidence would be 35% to 54% lower 8 y after the introduction of ART, compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there is no ART. More variation existed in the estimated long-term (38 y) reductions in incidence. The impact of optimistic interventions including immediate ART initiation varied widely across models, maintaining substantial uncertainty about the theoretical prospect for elimination of HIV from the population using ART alone over the next four decades. The number of person-years of ART per infection averted over 8 y ranged between 5.8 and 18.7. Considering the actual scale-up of ART in South Africa, seven models estimated that current HIV incidence is 17% to 32% lower than it would have been in the absence of ART. Differences between model assumptions about CD4 decline and HIV transmissibility over the course of infection explained only a modest amount of the variation in model results.

CONCLUSIONS

Mathematical models evaluating the impact of ART vary substantially in structure, complexity, and parameter choices, but all suggest that ART, at high levels of access and with high adherence, has the potential to substantially reduce new HIV infections. There was broad agreement regarding the short-term epidemiologic impact of ambitious treatment scale-up, but more variation in longer term projections and in the efficiency with which treatment can reduce new infections. Differences between model predictions could not be explained by differences in model structure or parameterization that were hypothesized to affect intervention impact.

Estimating the resources required in the roll-out of universal access to antiretroviral treatment in Zimbabwe

OBJECTIVES

To develop projections of the resources required (person-years of drug supply and healthcare worker time) for universal access to antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Zimbabwe.

METHODS

A stochastic mathematical model of disease progression, diagnosis, clinical monitoring and survival in HIV infected individuals.

FINDINGS

The number of patients receiving ART is determined by many factors, including the strategy of the ART programme (method of initiation, frequency of patient monitoring, ability to include patients diagnosed before ART became available), other healthcare services (referral rates from antenatal clinics, uptake of HIV testing), demographic and epidemiological conditions (past and future trends in incidence rates and population growth) as well as the medical impact of ART (average survival and the relationship with CD4 count when initiated). The variations in these factors lead to substantial differences in long-term projections; with universal access by 2010 and no further prevention interventions, between 370 000 and almost 2 million patients could be receiving treatment in 2030-a fivefold difference. Under universal access, by 2010 each doctor will initiate ART for up to two patients every day and the case-load for nurses will at least triple as more patients enter care and start treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

The resources required by ART programmes are great and depend on the healthcare systems and the demographic/epidemiological context. This leads to considerable uncertainty in long-term projections and large variation in the resources required in different countries and over time. Understanding how current practices relate to future resource requirements can help optimise ART programmes and inform long-term public health planning.

Mathematical models for the study of HIV spread and control amongst men who have sex with men

For a quarter of century, mathematical models have been used to study the spread and control of HIV amongst men who have sex with men (MSM). We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to the end of 2010 and reviewed this literature to summarise the methodologies used, key model developments, and the recommended strategies for HIV control amongst MSM. Of 742 studies identified, 127 studies met the inclusion criteria. Most studies employed deterministic modelling methods (80%). Over time we saw an increase in model complexity regarding antiretroviral therapy (ART), and a corresponding decrease in complexity regarding sexual behaviours. Formal estimation of model parameters was carried out in only a small proportion of the studies (22%) while model validation was considered by an even smaller proportion (17%), somewhat reducing confidence in the findings from the studies. Nonetheless, a number of common conclusions emerged, including (1) identification of the importance of assumptions regarding changes in infectivity and sexual contact rates on the impact of ART on HIV incidence, that subsequently led to empirical studies to gather these data, and (2) recommendation that multiple strategies would be required for effective HIV control amongst MSM. The role of mathematical models in studying epidemics is clear, and the lack of formal inference and validation highlights the need for further developments in this area. Improved methodologies for parameter estimation and systematic sensitivity analysis will help generate predictions that more fully express uncertainty, allowing better informed decision making in public health.

Modelling the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the epidemic of HIV

Thirty years after HIV first appeared it has killed close to 30 million people but transmission continues unchecked. In 2009, an estimated 1.8 million lives were lost and 2.6 million more people were infected with HIV [1]. To cut transmission, many social, behavioural and biomedical interventions have been developed, tested and tried but have had little impact on the epidemic in most countries. One substantial success has been the development of combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) that reduces viral load and restores immune function. This raises the possibility of using ART not only to treat people but also to prevent new HIV infections. Here we consider the impact of ART on the transmission of HIV and show how it could help to control the epidemic. Much needs to be known and understood concerning the impact of early treatment with ART on the prognosis for individual patients and on transmission. We review the current literature on factors associated with modelling treatment for prevention and illustrate the potential impact using existing models. We focus on generalized epidemics in sub- Saharan Africa, with an emphasis on South Africa, where transmission is mainly heterosexual and which account for an estimated 17% of all people living with HIV. We also make reference to epidemics among men who have sex with men and injection drug users where appropriate. We discuss ways in which using treatment as prevention can be taken forward knowing that this can only be the beginning of what must become an inclusive dialogue among all of those concerned to stop acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS).

Understanding the context of HIV risk behavior among HIV-positive and HIV-negative female sex workers and male bar clients following antiretroviral therapy rollout in Mombasa, Kenya

This study explored perceptions of HIV following local introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART), among 30 HIV-positive and -negative female sex workers (FSWs) and 10 male bar patrons in Mombasa, Kenya. Semi-structured interviews were analyzed qualitatively to identify determinants of sexual risk behaviors. ART was not perceived as a barrier to safer sex and in some cases led to decreased high-risk behaviors. Barriers to safer sex included economic pressure and sexual partnership types. Many women reported that negotiating condom use is more difficult in long-term partnerships. These women favored short-term partnerships to minimize risk through consistent condom use. For women living with HIV, concern about maintaining health and avoiding HIV superinfection was a strong motivator of protective behaviors. For HIV-negative women, a negative HIV test was a powerful motivator. Incorporation of context- and serostatus-specific factors (e.g., self-protection for HIV-positive women) into tailored prevention counseling may support high-risk women to reduce risk behaviors.