The impact of waiting list alpha-fetoprotein changes on the outcome of liver transplant for hepatocellular carcinoma

Alpha-fetoprotein level > 1000 ng/mL as an exclusion criterion for liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma meeting the Milan criteria

Serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) has been increasingly recognized as a marker for a poor prognosis after liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Many published reports, however, have included a large proportion of patients with HCC beyond the Milan criteria, and the effects of incorporating AFP as an exclusion criterion for LT remain unclear. We studied 211 consecutive patients undergoing LT for HCC within the Milan criteria according to imaging under the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease organ allocation system between June 2002 and January 2009. The majority (93.4%) had locoregional therapy before LT. The median follow-up was 4.5 years (minimum = 2 years). The Kaplan-Meier 1- and 5-year patient survival rates were 94.3% and 83.4%, respectively. In a univariate analysis, significant predictors of HCC recurrence included vascular invasion [hazard ratio (HR) = 10, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.9-26, P < 0.001], a pathological tumor stage beyond the University of California San Francisco criteria (HR = 4.1, 95% CI = 1.36-12.6, P = 0.01), an AFP level > 1000 ng/mL (HR = 4.5, 95% CI = 1.3-15.3, P = 0.02), and an AFP level > 500 ng/mL (HR = 3.1, 95% CI = 1.04-9.4, P = 0.04). In a multivariate analysis, vascular invasion was the only significant predictor of tumor recurrence (HR = 5.6, 95% CI = 1.9-19, P = 0.02). An AFP level > 1000 ng/mL was the strongest pretransplant variable predicting vascular invasion (odds ratio = 6.8, 95% CI = 1.6-19.1, P = 0.006). The 1- and 5-year rates of survival without recurrence were 90% and 52.7%, respectively, for patients with an AFP level > 1000 ng/mL and 95% and 80.3%, respectively, for patients with an AFP level ≤ 1000 ng/mL (P = 0.026). Applying an AFP level > 1000 ng/mL as a cutoff would have resulted in the exclusion of 4.7% of the patients fr m LT and a 20% reduction in HCC recurrence. In conclusion, an AFP level > 1000 ng/mL may be a surrogate for vascular invasion and may be used to predict posttransplant HCC recurrence. Incorporating an AFP level > 1000 ng/mL as an exclusion criterion for LT within the Milan criteria may further improve posttransplant outcomes.

Hepatocellular cancer: how to expand safely inclusion criteria for liver transplantation

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The Milan criteria are still considered to be the best ones to select patients with hepatocellular cancer (HCC) for liver transplantation. Although the Milan criteria allowed lowering the incidence of tumor recurrence to a remarkable 10%, there is growing evidence that high numbers of patients were unrightfully excluded from a curative liver transplantation when exceeding these criteria. New strategies have been advocated during recent years with the intent not only to enlarge the number of potential transplant candidates, but also to select recipients with the lowest biological risk of recurrence.

RECENT FINDINGS

Different 'biological' and 'dynamic' parameters have been proposed both in western and eastern scenarios, such as α-fetoprotein dynamics, radiological response to locoregional treatments and several inflammatory markers, the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio being the most promising one.

SUMMARY

The paradigm that HCC patients should be selected according to morphological aspects (tumor numbers and diameters) only, based on the almost 20-year old success story of the Milan criteria, should be modified by combining these parameters with newer biological tumor markers in order to further refine the selection for liver transplantation. Such therapeutic algorithm will allow to further improve selection for and thus outcome after liver transplantation for HCC patients.

Neo-adjuvant therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma before liver transplantation: Where do we stand?

Liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) within Milan criteria is a widely accepted optimal therapy. Neo-adjuvant therapy before transplantation has been used as a bridging therapy to prevent dropout during the waiting period and as a down-staging method for the patient with intermediate HCC to qualify for liver transplantation. Transarterial chemoembolization and radiofrequency ablation are the most commonly used method for locoregional therapy. The data associated with newer modalities including drug-eluting beads, radioembolization with Y90, stereotactic radiation therapy and sorafenib will be discussed as a tool for converting advanced HCC to LT candidates. The concept “ablate and wait” has gained the popularity where mandated observation period after neo-adjuvant therapy allows for tumor biology to become apparent, thus has been recommended after down-staging. The role of neo-adjuvant therapy with conjunction of “ablate and wait” in living donor liver transplantation for intermediate stage HCC is also discussed in the paper.

Accurate computed tomography-based portal pressure assessment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Liver resection is generally restricted to patients without clinically significant portal hypertension (Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient - HVPG - ⩽10mmHg) and several teams perform transjugular HVPG measurements as part of the pre-operative work-up. The present study investigates whether a non-invasive Computed Tomography (CT)-based assessment could be as accurate as the invasive transjugular measurement.

METHODS

A cohort of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated by resection (n=36) or transplantation (n=39) was selected (mean age: 61±9.2years, male/female ratio: 4/1). Pre-operative CTs were read by two independent investigators, and potential CT-based HVPG predictors were compared to the transjugular HVPG measurements. A validation was conducted on another cohort of 70 non-surgical patients.

RESULTS

The invasive HVPG values were significantly correlated to liver/spleen volume ratio, spleen volume, platelet count, and peri-hepatic ascites (p<0.001), which all showed high inter-observer agreements (intra-class correlation coefficients ⩾0.927, Kappa ⩾0.945). The presence of a HVPG >10mmHg was best predicted by the liver/spleen volume ratio (AUC: 0.883 [0.805-0.960]) and the peri-hepatic ascites (p<0.001). These two variables were combined into an accurate model for predicting HVPG >10mmHg (AUC: 0.911 [0.847-0.975]), with sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of 92%, 79%, 91%, and 81%. The model was also accurate in the validation cohort with an AUC of 0.820 [0.719-0.921]. The computed formula was:

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed CT-based model showed a high accuracy in the prediction of HVPG and, if further confirmed by prospective validation, could replace the invasive transjugular assessment in patients not requiring a biopsy of the non-tumoral liver.

Latin American Association for the Study of the Liver (LAASL) clinical practice guidelines: management of hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cancer in the world and the third most common cause of cancer death, and accounts for 5.6% of all cancers. Nearly 82% of the approximately 550,000 liver cancer deaths each year occur in Asia. In some regions, cancer-related death from HCC is second only to lung cancer. The incidence and mortality of HCC are increasing in America countries as a result of an ageing cohort infected with chronic hepatitis C, and are expected to continue to rise as a consequence of the obesity epidemic. Clinical care and survival for patients with HCC has advanced considerably during the last two decades, thanks to improvements in patient stratification, an enhanced understanding of the pathophysiology of the disease, and because of developments in diagnostic procedures and the introduction of novel therapies and strategies in prevention. Nevertheless, HCC remains the third most common cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. These LAASL recommendations on treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma are intended to assist physicians and other healthcare providers, as well as patients and other interested individuals, in the clinical decision-making process by describing the optimal management of patients with liver cancer.

Validation of a dropout assessment model of candidates with/without hepatocellular carcinoma on a common liver transplant waiting list

The model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is often used for liver graft allocation, and patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) receive exception points (22 in the US). A better model is desirable for patients with HCC as they tend to have a privileged access to transplantation, without taking HCC characteristics into account. A new simpler model designed from a training set of US patients (n = 49 026) was tested on two validation sets (US and UK patient cohorts with, respectively, n = 20 475 and n = 1781). The risk of dropout was between 3.2 and 7.8% at 3 months in patients with HCC, and was captured into a score, including HCC size, HCC number, AFP, and MELD (-37.8 +1.9*MELD+5.9 if HCC Nb ≥ 2 + 5.9 if AFP > 400 + 21.2 if HCC size > 1 cm). This new model could be validated on external US and UK liver candidate cohorts. It provides a dynamic and more accurate assessment of dropout than the use of exception MELD (C-indices of 66.2-73.7% vs. 52.7-56.6%). In addition, the model shows a similar distribution as MELD for patients with non-HCC, and both scores could be used in parallel for the management of waiting-list patients with and without HCC.

Determinants of alpha-fetoprotein levels in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: implications for its clinical use

BACKGROUND

α-Fetoprotein (AFP) is a biomarker commonly used in the management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), although the possible determinants of its serum levels in these patients have not been adequately explored. For this study, the authors evaluated the relevance of demographic, clinical, and oncologic factors to the presence of elevated AFP levels in large cohort of patients with HCC.

METHODS

In 4123 patients with HCC who were managed by the Italian Liver Cancer Group, AFP levels were assessed along with their association with demographic, biochemical, clinical, and oncologic characteristics. Patients were subdivided according to the presence of elevated AFP (ie, >10 ng/mL).

RESULTS

AFP levels were elevated in 62.4% of patients with HCC. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that being a woman (odds ratio [OR], 1.497; 95% confidence interval [95%CI], 1.250-1.793; P < .0001), the presence of cirrhosis (OR, 1.538; 95% CI, 1.050-2.254; P = .027), liver disease with viral etiology (OR, 1.900; 95% CI, 1.589-2.272; P < .0001), an elevated alanine aminotransferase level (OR, 1.878; 95% CI, 1.602-2.202; P < .0001), a low albumin level (OR, 1.301; 95% CI, 1.110-1.525; P = .012), an HCC tumor size >2 cm (OR, 1.346; 95% CI, 1.135-2.596; P = .001), multinodular HCC (OR, 1.641; 95% CI, 1.403-1.920; P < .0001), and the presence of vascular invasion (OR, 1.774; 95% CI, 1.361-2.311; P < .0001) were associated independently with elevated levels of AFP. Both the median AFP level and the proportion of patients who had elevated levels increased with decreasing degrees of HCC differentiation (P < .0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Sex and features of chronic liver disease were identified as nontumor characteristics that influence serum AFP levels in patients with HCC. These findings should be taken into account as limitations in interpreting the oncologic meaning of this biomarker in clinical practice.

Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma beyond Milan Criteria: Multidisciplinary Approach to Improve Outcome

The implementation of the Milan criteria (MC) in 1996 has dramatically improved prognosis after liver transplantation (LT) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Liver transplantation has, thereby, become the standard therapy for patients with "early-stage" HCC on liver cirrhosis. The MC were consequently adopted by United Network of Organ Sharing (UNOS) and Eurotransplant for prioritization of patients with HCC. Recent advancements in the knowledge about tumor biology, radiographic imaging techniques, locoregional interventional treatments, and immunosuppressive medications have raised a critical discussion, if the MC might be too restrictive and unjustified keeping away many patients from potentially curative LT. Numerous transplant groups have, therefore, increasingly focussed on a stepwise expansion of selection criteria, mainly based on tumor macromorphology, such as size and number of HCC nodules. Against the background of a dramatic shortage of donor organs, however, simple expansion of tumor macromorphology may not be appropriate to create a safe extended criteria system. In contrast, rather the implementation of reliable prognostic parameters of tumor biology into selection process prior to LT is mandatory. Furthermore, a multidisciplinary approach of pre-, peri-, and posttransplant modulating of the tumor and/or the patient has to be established for improving prognosis in this special subset of patients.

Validating posttransplant hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence data in the United Network for Organ Sharing database

The Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN)/United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database is the most comprehensive collection of liver transplantation data, but the quality of these data with respect to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence has not been well assessed. In this study, we compared observed HCC recurrence rates in the UNOS database to expected rates calculated with a hierarchical model for recurrence adjusted for recipient and tumor characteristics. We used the UNOS Standard Transplant Analysis and Research data set for adult transplant patients with an initial exception for an HCC diagnosis granted between January 1, 2006 and September 30, 2010 who underwent transplantation within the same time window. We developed a risk-adjusted Poisson model with patients as the unit of analysis, random effects for transplant centers, and years of follow-up as an offset to predict expected recurrences for each center. To further investigate the possibility of underreporting, we imputed expected recurrences for non-HCC deaths. In all, 5034 HCC liver transplant recipients were identified, and 6.8% experienced recurrence at a median of 1 year after transplantation. The covariate-adjusted shrinkage estimates of the observed/expected HCC recurrence ratios by transplant center ranged from 0.6 to 1.76 (median = 0.97). The 95% confidence intervals for the shrinkage ratios included unity for every center, and this indicated that none could be unambiguously identified as having lower or higher than expected HCC recurrence rates. Imputing outcomes for patients potentially experiencing unreported recurrence changed the center-specific shrinkage ratios to 0.72 to 1.39 (median = 0.98), with no centers having a shrinkage ratio significantly different from 1. The observed HCC recurrence rate was not significantly lower than the expected rate at any center, and this suggests that no systematic underreporting has occurred. This study validates the OPTN HCC recurrence data and supports their potential for further analysis.

Bridging and downstaging treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients on the waiting list for liver transplantation

Several therapeutic procedures have been proposed as bridging treatments for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) awaiting liver transplantation (LT). The most used treatments include transarterial chemoembolization and radiofrequency ablation. Surgical resection has also been successfully used as a bridging procedure, and LT should be considered a rescue treatment in patients with previous HCC resection who experience tumor recurrence or post-treatment severe decompensation of liver function. The aims of bridging treatments include decreasing the waiting list dropout rate before transplantation, reducing HCC recurrence after transplantation, and improving post-transplant overall survival. To date, no data from prospective randomized studies are available; however, for HCC patients listed for LT within the Milan criteria, prolonging the waiting time over 6-12 mo is a risk factor for tumor spread. Bridging treatments are useful in containing tumor progression and decreasing dropout. Furthermore, the response to pre-LT treatments may represent a surrogate marker of tumor biological aggressiveness and could therefore be evaluated to prioritize HCC candidates for LT. Lastly, although a definitive conclusion can not be reached, the experiences reported to date suggest a positive impact of these treatments on both tumor recurrence and post-transplant patient survival. Advanced HCC may be downstaged to achieve and maintain the current conventional criteria for inclusion in the waiting list for LT. Recent studies have demonstrated that successfully downstaged patients can achieve a 5-year survival rate comparable to that of patients meeting the conventional criteria without requiring downstaging.

The role of liver cancer stem cells in donor liver allocation for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Previous criteria for liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has predominantly emphasized the size and number of existent tumors; however, criteria have not included tumor biology, which may comprise a critical factor for predicting patient prognosis. This issue has been recognized in the Hangzhou criteria, which take tumor histopathologic grade and pre-transplant α-fetoprotein (AFP) level into consideration. However, neither histopathologic grading nor AFP level are precise enough to adequately represent tumor biology in patients with HCC. Recent research has indicated that the development and progression of HCC are driven by a subpopulation of liver cells with stem cell features (cancer stem cells, [CSCs]). Liver CSCs with cluster of differentiation (CD)133 antigen positivity show a high tumorigenic capacity, and the increase in the percentage of CD133+ liver cancer cells is consistent with increased levels of serum AFP. In addition, the number of CD90+ cells increases with the tumorigenicity of HCC, and a positive correlation between the number of circulating CD90+ liver CSCs and disease progression has been observed. As liver CSCs can be detected using the CD profile and could more accurately represent tumor biology in HCC, we hypothesized that liver CSCs with specific phenotypes could be used for modifying the Hangzhou criteria, thereby providing valuable guidance for the development of more accurate prognosis prediction algorithms for patients with HCC being considered for liver transplantation. We provide reliable evidence supporting this hypothesis, and offer proposals for future applications in transplant practice.

Alpha-fetoprotein and modified response evaluation criteria in solid tumors progression after locoregional therapy as predictors of hepatocellular cancer recurrence and death after transplantation

Locoregional therapy (LRT) is being increasingly used for the management of hepatocellular cancer (HCC) in patients listed for liver transplantation (LT). Although several selection criteria have been developed, stratifications of survival according to the pathology of explanted livers and pre-LT LRT are lacking. Radiological progression according to the modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (mRECIST) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) behavior was reviewed for 306 patients within the Milan criteria (MC-IN) and 116 patients outside the Milan criteria (MC-OUT) who underwent LRT and LT between January 1999 and March 2010. A prospectively collected database originating from 6 collaborating European centers was used for the study. Sixty-one patients (14.5%) developed HCC recurrence. For both MC-IN and MC-OUT patients, an AFP slope > 15 ng/mL/month and mRECIST progression were unique independent risk factors for HCC recurrence and patient death. When the radiological Milan criteria (MC) status was combined with radiological and biological progression, MC-IN and MC-OUT patients without risk factors had similarly excellent 5-year tumor-free and patient survival rates. MC-IN patients with at least 1 risk factor had worse outcomes, and MC-OUT patients with at least 1 risk factor had the poorest survival (P < 0.001). In conclusion, both radiological and biological modifications permit documentation of the response to LRT in patients waiting for LT. According to these 2 parameters, tumor progression significantly increases the risk of recurrence and patient death not only for MC-OUT patients but also for MC-IN patients. The monitoring of both parameters in combination with the initial radiological MC status is an essential element for further refining the selection criteria for potential liver recipients with HCC.

Factors predicting survival after post-transplant hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence

BACKGROUND

Although factors associated with an increased risk of recurrence after liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been extensively studied, the history of patients with a post-transplant recurrence is poorly known.

METHODS

Patients experiencing a post-transplant HCC recurrence from 1996 to 2011 in two transplant programs were included. Demographic, transplant, and post-recurrence variables were assessed.

RESULTS

Thirty patients experienced an HCC recurrence-22 men and 8 women with a mean age of 55 ± 6 years. Sixteen (53 %) were outside the Milan criteria at the time of transplantation. Most recurrences (60 %) appeared within the first 18 months after transplantation, ranging between 1.7 and 109 months (median 14.2 months). Mean post-recurrence survival was 33 ± 31 months. On univariate analysis, total tumor volume (TTV; p = 0.047), microvascular invasion (p = 0.011), and time from transplant to recurrence (p = 0.001) predicted post-recurrence survival. On multivariate analysis, both time from transplant to recurrence (p = 0.001) and history of rejection (p = 0.043), but not the location of the recurrence or the type of recurrence treatment, predicted post-recurrence survival.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that patients with early post-transplant HCC recurrence have worse outcomes. Those with a history of graft rejection have better survivals, possibly due to more active anti-cancer immunity.

Position paper of the Italian Association for the Study of the Liver (AISF): the multidisciplinary clinical approach to hepatocellular carcinoma

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma should be managed with a multidisciplinary approach framed in a network where all the diagnostic techniques and therapeutic resources are available in order to provide the optimal level of care. Given this assumption, the Coordinating Committee of the Italian Association for the Study of the Liver nominated a panel of experts to elaborate practical recommendations for the multidisciplinary management of hepatocellular carcinoma aiming to provide: (1) homogeneous and efficacious diagnostic and staging work-up, and (2) the best treatment choice tailored to patient status and tumour stage at diagnosis. The 2010 updated American Association for the Study of Liver Disease Guidelines for hepatocellular carcinoma were selected as the reference document. For each management issue, the American Association for the Study of Liver Disease recommendations were briefly summarised and discussed, according to both the scientific evidence published after their release and the clinical expertise of the Italian centres taking care of these patients. The Italian Association for the Study of the Liver expert panel recommendations are finally reported.

Recent topics on α-fetoprotein

Zinc-fingers and homeoboxes 2 (ZHX2) and zinc-finger and BTB domain containing 20 (ZBTB20) repress the postnatal expression of α-fetoprotein (AFP) by interacting with the AFP gene promoter regions. ZHX2 inhibits the expression of AFP and cyclins A and E. ZBTB20 is negatively regulated by CUX1, which promotes cell-cycle progression, suggesting that AFP reactivation is closely linked to hepatocyte proliferation. A slight elevation in the serum AFP level often occurs in patients with chronic hepatitis C in the absence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and is an independent risk factor for HCC development to complement the fibrosis stage. In addition, the sustained elevation of AFP after interferon therapy is a risk factor of HCC development. AFP levels are clinically useful in predicting the outcomes of liver transplantation and sorafenib therapy for HCC patients. A low preoperative AFP level is a predictor of long-term survival and is associated with a low recurrence rate of HCC after liver transplantation. AFP response (≥20% decrease in AFP during 6-8 weeks of treatment) rather than radiological outcomes is a significant prognostic factor for survival in sorafenib-treated HCC patients. Highly sensitive Lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive AFP (AFP-L3) is 5-10 times more sensitive than conventional AFP-L3, and useful for early detection of HCC in patients with total AFP below 20 ng/mL.

Outcome comparisons among the Hangzhou, Chengdu, and UCSF criteria for hepatocellular carcinoma liver transplantation after successful downstaging therapies

BACKGROUND

In Mainland China, many selection criteria for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) liver transplantation, such as the Hangzhou, the Chengdu, and the Fudan criteria, have been established. No comparisons have been made among the outcomes using the Hangzhou, Chengdu, and University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) criteria in patients who underwent successful downstaging therapies.

METHODS

After successful downstaging therapies, 72 patients met the UCSF criteria, 86 met the Chengdu criteria, and 102 met the Hangzhou criteria. The data on these HCC patients were retrospectively analyzed, and various outcomes, such as survival and the tumor-free survival rate, were compared among the three groups.

RESULTS

No significant differences were observed among the three groups with regard to the downstaging protocols, baseline characteristics, or liver function. However, the patients who met the Hangzhou criteria had significantly larger tumor targets than those who met the Chengdu or UCSF criteria (P < 0.05). The three groups showed similar 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates (90.9, 80.0, and 78.6 %, respectively, for the UCSF criteria; 91.6, 81.9, and 75.6 %, respectively, for the Hangzhou criteria; and 91.1, 83.3, and 79.4 %, respectively, for the Chengdu criteria); 1-, 3-, and 5-year tumor-free survival rates (83.3, 77.5, and 75 %, respectively, for the UCSF criteria; 86.3, 78.8, and 75.6 %, respectively, for the Hangzhou criteria; and 87.3, 79.2, and 76.4 %, respectively, for the Chengdu criteria); and 1-, 3-, and 5-year tumor recurrence rates (9.2, 17.5, and 21.4 %, respectively, for the UCSF criteria; 8.4, 16.4, and 20 % for the Hangzhou criteria; and 8.9, 14.6, and 17.6 % for the Chengdu criteria).

CONCLUSION

Because they have contributed to similar outcomes but to larger HCC patient pools, the Hangzhou criteria for HCC transplantation should be comprehensively accepted in China for HCC patients after successful downstaging therapies.

Pretransplantation α-fetoprotein slope and milan criteria: strong predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after transplantation

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major cause of orthotropic liver transplantations (OLT). However, tumor recurrence remains a concern. Our group has shown that a rising natural α-fetoprotein (AFP) slope (NAS) correlates with tumor characteristics. We want to assess if a rising NAS predicts tumor recurrence.

METHODS

We reviewed first OLT for HCC (n=144) at our center from 1992 to 2010. Patients with less than two AFP values before treatment were excluded (n=52). A rising NAS (>0.1 μg/L/day) was found in 28 patients whereas 64 presented a stable or dropping NAS. Demographics, pre-OLT therapy, and tumor characteristics were collected. Statistical analysis was performed using ANOVA, chi-square or Fisher's test, and logistic regression for recurrence after OLT.

RESULTS

Demographics were similar among the recurrence (n=12) and nonrecurrence (n=80) groups. Patients who recurred received more treatment (P=0.017), had a higher number of lesions (P=0.025), a greater total tumor size (P=0.001), and a higher incidence of microvascular invasion (P=0.013). More patients exceeded the Milan criteria (75.0% vs. 31.3%, odds ratio [OR] 6.60, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.45-4.05, P=0.008) and had a rising NAS (58.3% vs. 26.3%, OR 3.20, 95% CI 1.11-9.22, P=0.024) among the recurrence group. NAS was also a strong predictor of microvascular invasion (P=0.040). After correcting for age and sex, both a rising NAS (OR 3.98, 95% CI 1.01-15.81, P=0.039) and nonadherence to Milan criteria (OR 5.69, 95% CI 1.14-28.38, P=0.034) were strong predictors of recurrence after OLT.

CONCLUSION

The NAS is a predictor of microvascular invasion, a finding exclusive to pathology and in itself a predictor of HCC recurrence after OLT. The NAS and Milan criteria are good predictors of recurrence. These results encourage a frequent monitoring of AFP variations before OLT.

Is liver transplantation using organs donated after cardiac death cost-effective or does it decrease waitlist death by increasing recipient death?

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness in liver transplantation (LT) of utilizing organs donated after cardiac death (DCD) compared with organs donated after brain death (DBD).

METHODS

A Markov-based decision analytic model was created to compare two LT waitlist strategies distinguished by organ type: (i) DBD organs only, and (ii) DBD and DCD organs. The model simulated outcomes for patients over 10 years with annual cycles through one of four health states: survival; ischaemic cholangiopathy; retransplantation, and death. Baseline values and ranges were determined from an extensive literature review. Sensitivity analyses tested model strength and parameter variability.

RESULTS

Overall survival is decreased, and biliary complications and retransplantation are increased in recipients of DCD livers. Recipients of DBD livers gained 5.6 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) at a cost of US$69 000/QALY, whereas recipients on the DBD + DCD LT waitlist gained 6.0 QALYs at a cost of US$61 000/QALY. The DBD + DCD organ strategy was superior to the DBD organ-only strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

The extension of life and quality of life provided by DCD LT to patients on the waiting list who might otherwise not receive a liver transplant makes the continued use of DCD livers cost-effective.

Hepatocellular cancer and liver transplantation: a Western experience

Orthotopic liver transplantation is the preferred treatment option in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma developing in chronic liver disease. Unfortunately, based on classical transplantation criteria (Milan criteria), only a minority of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma are candidate to orthotopic liver transplantation. Major improvements in treatment strategy and surgical technique including the use of neoadjuvant locoregional therapies and progresses of post-transplant immunosuppressive treatment have contributed to safely expand transplantation criteria preserving acceptable surgical morbidity-mortality and good oncologic outcome. Further extension of transplantation criteria may have advantages including an increase in the number of transplant candidates and improvement of the prognosis of the disease and also disadvantages including an increase of surgical morbidity and deterioration of global oncologic outcome of orthotopic liver transplantation in hepatocellular carcinoma. In the future, identification of imaging or molecular prognostic markers could help to better define transplantation criteria.

Outcomes of living and deceased donor liver transplant recipients with hepatocellular carcinoma: results of the A2ALL cohort

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents an increasing fraction of liver transplant indications; the role of living donor liver transplant (LDLT) remains unclear. In the Adult-to-Adult Living Donor Liver Transplantation Cohort Study, patients with HCC and an LDLT or deceased donor liver transplant (DDLT) for which at least one potential living donor had been evaluated were compared for recurrence and posttransplant mortality rates. Mortality from date of evaluation of each recipient's first potential living donor was also analyzed. Unadjusted 5-year HCC recurrence was significantly higher after LDLT (38%) than DDLT (11%), (p = 0.0004). After adjustment for tumor characteristics, HCC recurrence remained significantly different between LDLT and DDLT recipients (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.35; p = 0.04) for the overall cohort but not for recipients transplanted following the introduction of MELD prioritization. Five-year posttransplant survival was similar in LDLT and DDLT recipients from time of transplant (HR = 1.32; p = 0.27) and from date of LDLT evaluation (HR = 0.73; p = 0.36). We conclude that the higher recurrence observed after LDLT is likely due to differences in tumor characteristics, pretransplant HCC management and waiting time.

Alpha-fetoprotein has no prognostic role in small hepatocellular carcinoma identified during surveillance in compensated cirrhosis

Alpha-fetoprotein is a tumor marker that has been used for surveillance and diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with cirrhosis. The prognostic capability of this marker in patients with HCC has not been clearly defined. In this study our aim was to evaluate the prognostic usefulness of serum alpha-fetoprotein in patients with well-compensated cirrhosis, optimal performance status, and small HCC identified during periodic surveillance ultrasound who were treated with curative intent. Among the 3,027 patients included in the Italian Liver Cancer study group database, we selected 205 Child-Pugh class A and Eastern Cooperative Group Performance Status 0 patients with cirrhosis with a single HCC ≤ 3 cm of diameter diagnosed during surveillance who were treated with curative intent (hepatic resection, liver transplantation, percutaneous ethanol injection, radiofrequency thermal ablation). Patients were subdivided according to alpha-fetoprotein serum levels (i.e., normal ≤ 20 ng/mL; mildly elevated 21-200 ng/mL; markedly elevated >200 ng/mL). Patient survival, as assessed by the Kaplan-Meier method, was not significantly different among the three alpha-fetoprotein classes (P = 0.493). The same result was obtained in the subgroup of patients with a single HCC ≤ 2 cm (P = 0.714). An alpha-fetoprotein serum level of 100 ng/mL identified by receiver operating characteristic curve had inadequate accuracy (area under the curve = 0.536, 95% confidence interval = 0.465-0.606) to discriminate between survivors and deceased patients.

CONCLUSION

Alpha-fetoprotein serum levels have no prognostic meaning in well-compensated cirrhosis patients with single, small HCC treated with curative intent.

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular cancer: UCL experience in 137 adult cirrhotic patients. Alpha-foetoprotein level and locoregional treatment as refined selection criteria

Liver transplantation (LT) is a validated treatment for selected cirrhotics with hepatocellular cancer (HCC). A retrospective single center study including 137 recipients having proven HCC was done to refine inclusion criteria for LT as well as to look at impact of locoregional treatment (LRT) on outcome. At pre-LT imaging, 42 (30.6%) patients were Milan criteria (MC)-OUT; 28 (20.4%) were University of California San Francisco criteria (UCSFC)-OUT. Pre-LT LRT was performed in 109 (79.6%) patients. Multivariate analysis identified four factors to be independently predictive of recurrence: tumour number >3, AFP level ≥400 ng/ml, microvascular invasion and rejection needing anti-lymphocytic antibodies. When considering pre-transplant variables only, AFP level ≥400 ng/ml (HR = 5.13; P < 0.0001) was the unique risk factor for recurrence; conversely, application of LRT was protective (HR = 0.42; P = 0.04). MC-IN patients having LRT (n = 79) had the best 5-year tumour-free survival (TFS) (91.6%). MC-IN patients without LRT (n = 16) and MC-OUT patients with LRT (n = 30) had similar good TFS (72.7% vs.77.5%); finally MC-OUT patients without LRT (n = 12) had the worst results (45.0%; vs. 1st group: P < 0.0001). Immediate pre-LT AFP and aggressive pre-transplant LRT strategy, especially in MC-OUT patients, are both important elements to further expand inclusion criteria without compromising long-term results of HCC liver recipients.

A model for dropout assessment of candidates with or without hepatocellular carcinoma on a common liver transplant waiting list

In many countries, the allocation of liver grafts is based on the Model of End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score and the use of exception points for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). With this strategy, HCC patients have easier access to transplantation than non-HCC ones. In addition, this system does not allow for a dynamic assessment, which would be required to picture the current use of local tumor treatment. This study was based on the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients and included 5,498 adult candidates of a liver transplantation for HCC and 43,528 for non-HCC diagnoses. A proportional hazard competitive risk model was used. The risk of dropout of HCC patients was independently predicted by MELD score, HCC size, HCC number, and alpha-fetoprotein. When combined in a model with age and diagnosis, these factors allowed for the extrapolation of the risk of dropout. Because this model and MELD did not share compatible scales, a correlation between both models was computed according to the predicted risk of dropout, and drop-out equivalent MELD (deMELD) points were calculated.

CONCLUSION

The proposed model, with the allocation of deMELD, has the potential to allow for a dynamic and combined comparison of opportunities to receive a graft for HCC and non-HCC patients on a common waiting list.

Alpha-fetoprotein and novel tumor biomarkers as predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after surgery: a brilliant star raises again

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), des-γ-carboxy prothrombin (DCP), and lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive fraction of AFP (AFP-L3) have been developed with the intent to detect hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and for the surveillance of at-risk patients. However, at present, none of these tests can be recommended to survey cirrhotic patients at risk for HCC development because of their suboptimal ability for routine clinical practice in HCC diagnosis. Starting from these considerations, these markers have been therefore routinely and successfully used as predictors of survival and HCC recurrence in patients treated with curative intent. All these markers have been largely used as predictors in patients treated with hepatic resection or locoregional therapies, mainly in Eastern countries. In recent studies, AFP has been proposed as predictor of recurrence after liver transplantation and as selector of patients in the waiting list. Use of AFP modification during the waiting list for LT is still under investigation, potentially representing a very interesting tool for patient selection. The development of a new predictive model combining radiological and biological features based on biological markers is strongly required. New genetic markers are continuously discovered, but they are not already fully available in the clinical practice.

Systematic review: the prognostic role of alpha-fetoprotein following liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation (LT) offers a possible cure for carefully selected patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Studies report that preoperative alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is a prognostic indicator that can predict survival and recurrence in these patients.

AIM

To undertake a systematic review of available literature on preoperative AFP as a predictor of survival and recurrence following LT for HCC.

METHODS

A literature search was performed using Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, CINAHL and Google scholar databases to identify studies reporting AFP as a prognostic marker in LT for HCC. Primary outcomes of interest were overall survival and recurrence. Secondary outcomes were correlation of pre-LT AFP with vascular invasion and grade of tumour differentiation.

RESULTS

A total of 13 studies met the inclusion criteria (12,159 patients). The majority were male (9603, 78.9%). All were observational studies and only one prospective. Methodological quality was rated as poor for all studies, with selection and observer bias apparent for most cohorts. Reported survival rates and recurrence rates varied widely between the studies although overall demonstrated better outcomes for those with lower (<1000 ng/mL) pre-LT AFP levels. Similarly, rates of vascular invasion and poor tumour differentiation were higher in those with high pre-LT AFP levels.

CONCLUSIONS

A quantity of AFP >1000 ng/mL is associated with poorer outcomes from liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma. The quality of studies was generally poor and precluded valid statistical meta-analysis. There is a need to improve the performance and reporting of primary prognostic studies to facilitate high quality systematic review and meta-analysis.

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: five steps to prevent recurrence

Liver transplantation is the best treatment of patients with unresectable early hepatocellular carcinoma, allowing disease-free survival rates of 60-80% at 5 years. Despite these good results, some 10% of recipients experience a posttransplant HCC recurrence, which leads to death in almost all patients. Recurrence is either due to the growth of occult metastases or to the engraftment of circulating tumor cells. It can be hypothesized that strategies to decrease the engraftment of circulating tumor cells could decrease the risk of recurrence and, in addition, extend access to transplantation to patients with more advanced HCC. These potential strategies can be schematized into five steps, including (1) selecting recipients with low baseline levels of circulating HCC cells, by adding biological markers (such as alpha fetoprotein or molecular signatures) to the accepted combination of morphological criteria; (2) decreasing the perioperative release of HCC cells, with careful perioperative handling of the tumors; (3) preventing the engraftment of circulating HCC cells by decreasing liver graft ischemia-reperfusion injury, which has been shown to promote cancer cell engraftment and growth; (4) using anticancer drugs, including mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors and (5) tuning immunity toward HCC clearance.

Recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplant: identifying the high-risk patient

BACKGROUND

Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT) is rarely curable. However, in view of the advent of new treatments, it is critical that patients at high risk for recurrence are identified.

METHODS

Patients undergoing LT for HCC at a single centre between 2002 and 2010 were reviewed and data on clinical parameters and explant pathology were analysed to determine factors associated with HCC recurrence. All necrotic and viable tumour nodules were included in explant staging. All patients underwent LT according to the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) tumour exception policies.

RESULTS

Liver transplantation was performed in 122 patients with HCC during this period. Rates of recurrence-free survival in the entire cohort at 1 year and 3 years were 95% and 89%, respectively. Thirteen patients developed HCC recurrence at a median of 14 months post-LT. In univariate analysis the factors associated with HCC recurrence were bilobar tumours, vascular invasion, and stage exceeding either Milan or University of California San Francisco (UCSF) Criteria. Multivariate analysis showed pathology outside UCSF Criteria was the major predictor of recurrence; when pathology outside UCSF Criteria was found in combination with vascular invasion, the predicted 3-year recurrence-free survival was only 26%.

CONCLUSIONS

Explant pathology can be used to predict the risk for recurrent HCC after LT, which may allow for improved adjuvant and management strategies.