Cost-effectiveness analysis of personalised versus standard dosimetry for selective internal radiation therapy with TheraSphere in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Aims

To perform a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) comparing personalised dosimetry with standard dosimetry in the context of selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT) with TheraSphere for the management of adult patients with locally advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) from the Italian Healthcare Service perspective.

Materials and methods

A partition survival model was developed to project costs and the quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) over a lifetime horizon. Clinical inputs were retrieved from a published randomised controlled trial. Health resource utilisation inputs were extracted from the questionnaires administered to clinicians in three oncology centres in Italy, respectively. Cost parameters were based on Italian official tariffs.

Results

Over a lifetime horizon, the model estimated the average QALYs of 1.292 and 0.578, respectively, for patients undergoing personalised and standard dosimetry approaches. The estimated mean costs per patient were €23,487 and €19,877, respectively. The incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of personalised versus standard dosimetry approaches was €5,056/QALY.

Conclusions

Personalised dosimetry may be considered a cost-effective option compared to standard dosimetry for patients undergoing SIRT for HCC in Italy. These findings provide evidence for clinicians and payers on the value of personalised dosimetry as a treatment option for patients with HCC.

The concept of therapeutic hierarchy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicenter cohort study

BACKGROUND

The Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) prognostic system for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has recently been proposed and validated. We sought to explore the relationship among the ITA.LI.CA prognostic variables (ie tumour stage, functional score based on performance status and Child-Pugh score, and alpha-fetoprotein), treatment selection and survival outcome in HCC patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We analysed 4,867 consecutive HCC patients undergoing six main treatment strategies (liver transplantation, LT; liver resection, LR; ablation, ABL; intra-arterial therapy, IAT; Sorafenib, SOR; and best supportive care, BSC) and enrolled during 2002-2015 in a multicenter Italian database. In order to control pretreatment imbalances in observed variables, a machine learning methodology was used and inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) was calculated. An IPTW-adjusted multivariate survival model that included ITA.LI.CA prognostic variables, treatment period and treatment strategy was then developed. The survival benefit of HCC treatments was described as a hazard ratio (95% confidence interval), using BSC as a reference value and as predicted median survival.

RESULTS

After the IPTW, the six treatment groups became well balanced for most baseline characteristics. In the IPTW-adjusted multivariate survival model, treatment strategy was found to be the strongest survival predictor, irrespective of ITA.LI.CA prognostic variables and treatment period. The survival benefit of different therapies over BSC was: LT = 0.19 (0.18-0.20); RES = 0.40 (0.37-0.42); ABL 0.42 (0.40-0.44); IAT = 0.58 (0.55-0.61); SOR = 0.92 (0.87-0.97). This multivariate model was then used to predict median survival for each therapy within each ITA.LI.CA stage.

CONCLUSION

The concept of therapeutic hierarchy was established within each ITA.LI.CA stage.

Metabolic disorders across hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy

BACKGROUND

Metabolic disorders are well-known risk factors for HCC. Conversely, their impact on the natural history of HCC is not established. This study aimed at evaluating the impact of metabolic disorders on clinical features, treatment and survival of HCC patients regardless of its aetiology.

METHODS

We analysed the ITA.LI.CA database regarding 839 HCC patients prospectively collected. The following metabolic features were analysed: BMI, diabetes, arterial hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia and hypertriglyceridaemia. According to these features, patients were divided into 3 groups: 0-1, 2 and 3-5 metabolic features.

RESULTS

As compared with patients with 0-1 metabolic features, patients with 3-5 features showed lower percentage of HCC diagnosis on surveillance (P = .021), larger tumours (P = .038), better liver function (higher percentage of Child-Pugh class A [P = .007] and MELD < 10 [P = .003]), higher percentage of metastasis (P = .024) and lower percentage of portal vein thrombosis (P = .010). The BCLC stage and treatment options were similar among the 3 groups, with the exception of a less frequent access to loco-regional therapies for BCLC stage B patients with 3-5 features (P = .012). Overall survival and survival according to BCLC stage and/or treatment did not significantly differ among the 3 groups. Only using a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, diabetic patients showed a lower survival (P = .046). MELD score, HCC morphology, nodule size, BCLC stage, portal vein thrombosis and metastasis were independent predictors of lead-time adjusted survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Our "real world" study suggests that metabolic disorders shape the clinical presentation of HCC but do not seem to play a major role in setting patient survival.

Restaging Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Before Additional Treatment Decisions: A Multicenter Cohort Study

Prognostic assessment of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at the time of diagnosis remains controversial and becomes even more complex at the time of restaging when new variables need to be considered. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the prognostic utility of restaging patients before proceeding with additional therapies for HCC. Two independent Italian prospective databases were used to identify 1,196 (training cohort) and 648 (validation cohort) consecutive patients with HCC treated over the same study period (2008-2015) who had complete restaging before decisions about additional therapies. The performance of the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) prognostic score at restaging was compared with that of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, Hong Kong Liver Cancer, and Cancer of the Liver Italian Program systems. A multivariable Cox survival analysis was performed to identify baseline, restaging, or dynamic variables that were able to improve the predictive performance of the prognostic systems. At restaging, 35.3% of patients maintained stable disease; most patients were either down-staged by treatment (27.2%) or had disease progression (37.5%). The ITA.LI.CA scoring system at restaging demonstrated the best prognostic performance in both the training and validation cohorts (c-index 0.707 and 0.722, respectively) among all systems examined. On multivariable analysis, several variables improved the prognostic ability of the ITA.LI.CA score at restaging, including progressive disease after the first treatment, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease at restaging, and choice of nonsurgical treatment as additional therapy. A new ITA.LI.CA restaging model was created that demonstrated high discriminative power in both the training and validation cohorts (c-index 0.753 and 0.745, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Although the ITA.LI.CA score demonstrated the best prognostic performance at restaging, other variables should be considered to improve the prognostic assessment of patients at the time of deciding additional therapies for HCC.

Plasma cholesterol and lipoprotein levels in relation to tumor aggressiveness and survival in HCC patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS:

Hepatocellular carcinoma is associated with several chronic liver diseases, especially chronic hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus, and alcoholism. It is increasingly appreciated that obesity/metabolic syndrome is also associated with chronic liver disease and subsequent hepatocellular carcinoma.

METHODS:

We retrospectively investigated the serum lipid profiles in a large hepatocellular carcinoma cohort, associated predominantly with the hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus, alcohol or nonalcoholic steatohepatitis. The cohort was examined both as a whole, as well as stratified by etiology.

RESULTS:

We found significant associations between parameters of hepatocellular carcinoma biology such as maximum tumor diameter, portal vein thrombosis, tumor multifocality or alpha-fetoprotein levels and individual lipid components, including total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides and body mass index. In a final multiple linear regression model considering all lipid variables together, only high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was significantly associated with the tumor Tumor Aggressiveness Index. High-density lipoprotein cholesterol was found to have a statistically higher hazard ratio for death than low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels (Cox). On examination by etiological group, alpha-fetoprotein levels were significantly higher in patients with hepatitis C virus compared to those with alcohol or nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, but maximum tumor diameter, tumor multifocality and portal vein thrombosis were similar across etiological groups. Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis patients had significantly less cirrhosis than other groups and hepatitis B virus patients had significantly higher cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels than hepatitis C virus patients.

CONCLUSIONS:

This is the first report, to our knowledge, of a relationship between serum lipid parameters and indices of hepatocellular carcinoma growth, invasion and aggressiveness, as well as with survival.

Patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma need a personalized management: A lesson from clinical practice

The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) advanced stage (BCLC C) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) includes a heterogeneous population, where sorafenib alone is the recommended treatment. In this study, our aim was to assess treatment and overall survival (OS) of BCLC C patients subclassified according to clinical features (performance status [PS], macrovascular invasion [MVI], extrahepatic spread [EHS] or MVI + EHS) determining their allocation to this stage. From the Italian Liver Cancer database, we analyzed 835 consecutive BCLC C patients diagnosed between 2008 and 2014. Patients were subclassified as: PS1 alone (n = 385; 46.1%), PS2 alone (n = 146; 17.5%), MVI (n = 224; 26.8%), EHS (n = 51; 6.1%), and MVI + EHS (n = 29; 3.5%). MVI, EHS, and MVI + EHS patients had larger and multifocal/massive HCCs and higher alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels than PS1 and PS2 patients. Median OS significantly declined from PS1 (38.6 months) to PS2 (22.3 months), EHS (11.2 months), MVI (8.2 months), and MVI + EHS (3.1 months; P < 0.001). Among MVI patients, OS was longer in those with peripheral than with central (portal trunk) MVI (11.2 vs. 7.1 months; P = 0.005). The most frequent treatments were: curative approaches in PS1 (39.7%), supportive therapy in PS2 (41.8%), sorafenib in MVI (39.3%) and EHS (37.3%), and best supportive care in MVI + EHS patients (51.7%). Independent prognostic factors were: Model for End-stage Liver Disease score, Child-Pugh class, ascites, platelet count, albumin, tumor size, MVI, EHS, AFP levels, and treatment type.

CONCLUSION

BCLC C stage does not identify patients homogeneous enough to be allocated to a single stage. PS1 alone is not sufficient to include a patient into this stage. The remaining patients should be subclassified according to PS and tumor features, and new patient-tailored therapeutic indications are needed. (Hepatology 2018;67:1784-1796).

A meta-analysis of single HCV-untreated arm of studies evaluating outcomes after curative treatments of HCV-related hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Determining risk for recurrence or survival after curative resection or ablation in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is important for stratifying patients according to expected outcomes in future studies of adjuvant therapy in the era of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). The aims of this meta-analysis were to estimate the recurrence and survival probabilities of HCV-related early HCC following complete response after potentially curative treatment and to identify predictors of recurrence and survival.

METHODS

Studies reporting time-dependent outcomes (HCC recurrence or death) after potentially curative treatment of HCV-related early HCC were identified in MEDLINE through May 2016. Data on patient populations and outcomes were extracted from each study by three independent observers and combined using a distribution-free summary survival curve. Primary outcomes were actuarial probabilities of recurrence and survival.

RESULTS

Eleven studies met the inclusion criteria. Pooled estimates of actuarial recurrence rates were 7.4% at 6 months and 47.0% at 2 years. Pooled estimates of actuarial survival rates were 79.8% at 3 years and 58.6% at 5 years. Heterogeneity among studies was highly significant for all outcomes. By univariate meta-regression analyses, lower serum albumin, randomized controlled trial study design and follow-up were independently associated with higher recurrence risk, whereas tumour size and alpha-foetoprotein levels were associated with higher mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis showed that recurrence risk and survival are extremely variable in patients with successfully treated HCV-related HCC, providing a useful benchmark for indirect comparisons of the benefits of DAAs and for a correct design of randomized controlled trials in the adjuvant setting.

Curative therapies are superior to standard of care (transarterial chemoembolization) for intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer intermediate stage (BCLC-B) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) includes extremely heterogeneous patients in terms of tumour burden and liver function. Transarterial-chemoembolization (TACE) is the first-line treatment for these patients although it may be risky/useless for someone, while others could undergo curative treatments. This study assesses the treatment type performed in a large cohort of BCLC-B patients and its outcome.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of 485 consecutive BCLC-B patients from the ITA.LI.CA database diagnosed with naïve HCC after 1999. Patients were stratified by treatment.

RESULTS

29 patients (6%) were lost to follow-up before receiving treatment. Treatment distribution was: TACE (233, 51.1%), curative treatments (145 patients, 31.8%), sorafenib (18, 3.9%), other (39, 8.5%), best supportive care (BSC) (21, 4.6%). Median survival (95% CI) was 45 months (37.4-52.7) for curative treatments, 30 (24.7-35.3) for TACE, 14 (10.5-17.5) for sorafenib, 14 (5.2-22.7) for other treatments and 10 (6.0-14.2) for BSC (P<.0001). Independent prognosticators were gender and treatment. Curative treatments reduced mortality (HR 0.197, 95%CI: 0.098-0.395) more than TACE (HR 0.408, 95%CI: 0.211-0.789) (P<.0001) as compared with BSC. Propensity score matching confirmed the superiority of curative therapies over TACE.

CONCLUSIONS

In everyday practice TACE represents the first-line therapy in an half of patients with naïve BCLC-B HCC since treatment choice is driven not only by liver function and nodule characteristics, but also by contraindications to procedures, comorbidities, age and patient opinion. The treatment type is an independent prognostic factor in BCLC-B patients and curative options offer the best outcome.

Complete and Sustained Off-Therapy Response to Sorafenib in Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma

A 75-year-old Caucasian woman with alcohol-related cirrhosis was admitted to our Unit in October 2012 for the diagnostic evaluation of a focal liver lesion detected by regular surveillance ultrasound. The subsequent dynamic CT and MR led to a diagnosis of infiltrative hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) of 5 cm in the hepatic segment IV with neoplastic infiltration of the left branch of the portal vein, in absence of extrahepatic metastases. Therapy with sorafenib 400 mg bid was started and the subsequent dynamic CT performed at the 10th month of therapy showed a complete response according to RECIST criteria and mRECIST, while seriated dosages of α-fetoprotein levels showed a progressive reduction up to normalization. After 18 months of therapy, Sorafenib was discontinued due to a grade 3 adverse event. Nonetheless, all subsequent radiological controls, performed over the following two years confirmed a complete off-therapy response despite withdrawal of Sorafenib. After three years the patient is asymptomatic, with a preserved liver function and undetectable solid tumor lesions at dynamic CT. This case represents one of the few examples of complete response to anti-angiogenic drugs and, to our knowledge, the only case of sustained response, even after the discontinuation of Sorafenib, described so far in the literature.

KEY WORDS

hepatocellular carcinoma - HCC - BCLC - sorafenib - complete response.

ABBREVIATIONS

AFP: alpha-fetoprotein; AE: adverse event; BCLC: Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer; CT: computed tomography; HCC: hepatocellular carcinoma; mRECIST: modified response evaluation criteria in solid tumors; PS: Performance status; RCTs: randomized controlled trials.

The evolutionary scenario of hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy: an update

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma is changing worldwide. This study aimed at evaluating the changing scenario of aetiology, presentation, management and prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in Italy during the last 15 years.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of the ITA.LI.CA (Italian Liver Cancer) database including 5192 hepatocellular carcinoma patients managed in 24 centres from 2000 to 2014. Patients were divided into three groups according to the date of cancer diagnosis (2000-2004, 2005-2009 and 2010-2014).

RESULTS

The main results were as follows: (i) progressive patient aging; (ii) progressive expansion of non-viral cases and, namely, of "metabolic" hepatocellular carcinomas; (iii) increasing proportion of hepatocellular carcinoma diagnosed during a correct (semi-annual) surveillance programme; (iv) favourable cancer stage migration; (v) increased use of radiofrequency ablation to the detriment of percutaneous ethanol injection; (vi) improved outcomes of ablative and transarterial treatments; (vii) improved overall survival (adjusted for the lead time in surveyed patients), particularly after 2009, of both viral and non-viral patients presenting with an early- or intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma.

CONCLUSIONS

During the last 15 years several aetiological and clinical features of hepatocellular carcinoma patients have changed, as their management. The observed improvement of overall survival was owing both to the wider use of semi-annual surveillance, expanding the proportion of tumours that qualified for curative treatments, and to the improved outcome of loco-regional treatments.

Hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence in patients with curative resection or ablation: impact of HCV eradication does not depend on the use of interferon

BACKGROUND

In HCV-infected cirrhotic patients with successfully treated early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the time to HCC recurrence and the effects of sustained viral eradication (SVR) by interferon (IFN)-based or IFN-free regimens on HCC recurrence remain unclear.

AIM

To perform an indirect comparison of time to recurrence (TTR) in patients with successfully treated early HCC and active HCV infection with those of patients with SVR by IFN-based and by IFN-free regimens.

METHODS

We evaluated 443 patients with HCV-related cirrhosis and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Stage A/0 HCC who had a complete radiological response after curative resection or ablation. Active HCV infection was present in 328, selected from the Italian Liver Cancer group cohort; 58 patients had SVR achieved by IFN-free regimens after HCC cure, and 57 patients had SVR achieved by IFN-based regimens after HCC cure. Individual data of patients in the last two groups were extracted from available publications.

RESULTS

TTR by Kaplan-Meier curve was significantly lower in patients with active HCV infection compared with those with SVR both by IFN-free (P = 0.02) and by IFN-based (P < 0.001) treatments. TTR was similar in patients with SVR by IFN-free or by IFN-based (P = 0.49) strategies.

CONCLUSION

In HCV-infected, successfully treated patients with early HCC, SVR obtained by IFN-based or IFN-free regimens significantly reduce tumour recurrence without differences related to the anti-viral strategy used.

Development and Validation of a New Prognostic System for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Prognostic assessment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial. Using the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database as a training set, we sought to develop and validate a new prognostic system for patients with HCC.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Prospective collected databases from Italy (training cohort, n = 3,628; internal validation cohort, n = 1,555) and Taiwan (external validation cohort, n = 2,651) were used to develop the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system. We first defined ITA.LI.CA stages (0, A, B1, B2, B3, C) using only tumor characteristics (largest tumor diameter, number of nodules, intra- and extrahepatic macroscopic vascular invasion, extrahepatic metastases). A parametric multivariable survival model was then used to calculate the relative prognostic value of ITA.LI.CA tumor stage, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, Child-Pugh score (CPS), and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in predicting individual survival. Based on the model results, an ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score (from 0 to 13 points) was constructed, and its prognostic power compared with that of other integrated systems (BCLC, HKLC, MESIAH, CLIP, JIS). Median follow-up was 58 mo for Italian patients (interquartile range, 26-106 mo) and 39 mo for Taiwanese patients (interquartile range, 12-61 mo). The ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score showed optimal discrimination and calibration abilities in Italian patients. Observed median survival in the training and internal validation sets was 57 and 61 mo, respectively, in quartile 1 (ITA.LI.CA score ≤ 1), 43 and 38 mo in quartile 2 (ITA.LI.CA score 2-3), 23 and 23 mo in quartile 3 (ITA.LI.CA score 4-5), and 9 and 8 mo in quartile 4 (ITA.LI.CA score > 5). Observed and predicted median survival in the training and internal validation sets largely coincided. Although observed and predicted survival estimations were significantly lower (log-rank test, p < 0.001) in Italian than in Taiwanese patients, the ITA.LI.CA score maintained very high discrimination and calibration features also in the external validation cohort. The concordance index (C index) of the ITA.LI.CA score in the internal and external validation cohorts was 0.71 and 0.78, respectively. The ITA.LI.CA score's prognostic ability was significantly better (p < 0.001) than that of BCLC stage (respective C indexes of 0.64 and 0.73), CLIP score (0.68 and 0.75), JIS stage (0.67 and 0.70), MESIAH score (0.69 and 0.77), and HKLC stage (0.68 and 0.75). The main limitations of this study are its retrospective nature and the intrinsically significant differences between the Taiwanese and Italian groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The ITA.LI.CA prognostic system includes both a tumor staging-stratifying patients with HCC into six main stages (0, A, B1, B2, B3, and C)-and a prognostic score-integrating ITA.LI.CA tumor staging, CPS, ECOG performance status, and AFP. The ITA.LI.CA prognostic system shows a strong ability to predict individual survival in European and Asian populations.

Liver Steatosis and Fibrosis in OSA patients After Long-term CPAP Treatment: A Preliminary Ultrasound Study

In cases of morbid obesity, obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) was associated with biopsy-proven liver damage. The role of non-invasive techniques to monitor liver changes during OSA treatment with continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) is unknown. We used non-invasive ultrasound techniques to assess liver steatosis and fibrosis in severe OSA patients at diagnosis and during long-term CPAP treatment. Fifteen consecutive patients with severe OSA (apnea hypopnea index 52.5 ± 19.1/h) were studied by liver ultrasound and elastography (Fibroscan) at 6-mo (n = 3) or 1-y (n = 12) follow-up. Mean age was 49.3 ± 11.9 y, body mass index (BMI) was 35.4 ± 6.4 kg/m(2). Adherence to CPAP was ≥5 h/night. At baseline, most patients had severe liver steatosis independent of BMI; at follow-up, liver steatosis was not statistically different, but a relationship between severity of steatosis and BMI became apparent (Spearman's rho: 0.53, p = 0.03). Significant fibrosis as assessed by Fibroscan was absent at diagnosis or follow-up (failure or unreliable measurements in four markedly obese patients). Therefore, ultrasound liver assessment is feasible in most OSA patients, and CPAP treatment may positively affect liver steatosis.

Utility-based criteria for selecting patients with hepatocellular carcinoma for liver transplantation: A multicenter cohort study using the alpha-fetoprotein model as a survival predictor

The lifetime utility of liver transplantation (LT) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still controversial. The aim of this study was to ascertain when LT is cost-effective for HCC patients, with a view to proposing new transplant selection criteria. The study involved a real cohort of potentially transplantable Italian HCC patients (n = 2419 selected from the Italian Liver Cancer group database) who received nontransplant therapies. A non-LT survival analysis was conducted, the direct costs of therapies were calculated, and a Markov model was used to compute the cost utility of LT over non-LT therapies in Italian and US cost scenarios. Post-LT survival was calculated using the alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) model on the basis of AFP values and radiological size and number of nodules. The primary endpoint was the net health benefit (NHB), defined as LT survival benefit in quality-adjusted life years minus incremental costs (US $)/willingness to pay. The calculated median cost of non-LT therapies per patient was US $53,042 in Italy and US $62,827 in the United States. On Monte Carlo simulation, the NHB of LT was always positive for AFP model values ≤ 3 and always negative for values > 7 in both countries. A multivariate model showed that nontumor variables (patient's age, Child-Turcotte-Pugh [CTP] class, and alternative therapies) had the potential to shift the AFP model threshold of LT cost-ineffectiveness from 3 to 7. LT proved always cost-effective for HCC patients with AFP model values ≤ 3, whereas the cost-ineffectiveness threshold ranged between 3 and 7 using nontumor variables.

Survival benefit of liver resection for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma across different Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stages: a multicentre study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The role of hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in different Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stages is controversial. We aimed at measuring the survival benefit of resection vs. non-surgical-therapies in each BCLC stage.

METHODS

Using the ITA.LI.CA database, we identified 2090 BCLC A, B, and C HCC patients observed between 2000 and 2012: 550 underwent resection, 1046 loco-regional therapy (LRT), and 494 best supportive care (BSC). A multivariate log-logistic model was chosen to predict median survival (MS) after resection vs. MS after LRT or BSC. The results were expressed as net survival benefit of resection: (MS resection-MS LRT)/MS BSC.

RESULTS

After stratifying for BCLC stage, the median net survival benefit of resection over LRT was: BCLC 0=62% (40%, 82%), A=45% (13%, 65%), B=46% (9%, 76%), C=-16% (-55%, 33%). Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score>9, Child B class, and performance status (PST)=2 were the main risk factors for liver resection. 1181 Child A patients (57%) with MELD⩽9 and PST<2 had always a large positive net survival benefit of resection over LRT, independently of BCLC stage: BCLC 0=64% (44%, 85%), A=59% (45%, 74%), B=71% (52%, 90%), C=56% (36%, 78%). Among the 909 (43%) patients with at least one risk factor (MELD>9 or PST=2 or Child B class), resection did not prove any survival benefit over LRT.

CONCLUSIONS

Resection could result in survival benefit over LRT for HCC patients regardless of their BCLC stage, provided that liver dysfunction (Child B or MELD>9) and PST>1 are absent.

Estimation of lead-time bias and its impact on the outcome of surveillance for the early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Lead-time is the time by which diagnosis is anticipated by screening/surveillance with respect to the symptomatic detection of a disease. Any screening program, including surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), is subject to lead-time bias. Data regarding lead-time for HCC are lacking. Aims of the present study were to calculate lead-time and to assess its impact on the benefit obtainable from the surveillance of cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

One-thousand three-hundred and eighty Child-Pugh class A/B patients from the ITA.LI.CA database, in whom HCC was detected during semiannual surveillance (n = 850), annual surveillance (n = 234) or when patients came when symptomatic (n = 296), were selected. Lead-time was estimated by means of appropriate formulas and Monte Carlo simulation, including 1000 patients for each arm.

RESULTS

The 5-year overall survival after HCC diagnosis was 32.7% in semiannually surveilled patients, 25.2% in annually surveilled patients, and 12.2% in symptomatic patients (p<0.001). In a 10-year follow-up perspective, the median lead-time calculated for all surveilled patients was 6.5 months (7.2 for semiannual and 4.1 for annual surveillance). Lead-time bias accounted for most of the surveillance benefit until the third year of follow-up after HCC diagnosis. However, even after lead-time adjustment, semiannual surveillance maintained a survival benefit over symptomatic diagnosis (number of patients needed to screen = 13), as did annual surveillance (18 patients).

CONCLUSIONS

Lead-time bias is the main determinant of the short-term benefit provided by surveillance for HCC, but this benefit becomes factual in a long-term perspective, confirming the clinical utility of an anticipated diagnosis of HCC.

Competing risks and prognostic stages of cirrhosis: a 25-year inception cohort study of 494 patients

BACKGROUND

Morphological, haemodynamic and clinical stages of cirrhosis have been proposed, although no definite staging system is yet accepted for clinical practice.

AIM

To investigate whether clinical complications of cirrhosis may define different prognostic disease stages.

METHODS

Analysis of the database from a prospective inception cohort of 494 patients. Decompensation was defined by ascites, bleeding, jaundice or encephalopathy. Explored potential prognostic stages: 1, compensated cirrhosis without oesophago-gastric varices; 2, compensated cirrhosis with varices; 3, bleeding without other complications; 4, first nonbleeding decompensation; 5, any second decompensating event. Patient flow across stages was assessed by a competing risks analysis.

RESULTS

Major patient characteristics were: 199 females, 295 males, 404 HCV+, 377 compensated, 117 decompensated cirrhosis. The mean follow-up was 145 ± 109 months without dropouts. Major events: 380 deaths, 326 oesophago-gastric varices, 283 ascites, 158 bleeding, 146 encephalopathy, 113 jaundice, 126 hepatocellular carcinoma and 19 liver transplantation. Patients entering each prognostic stage along the disease course were: 202, stage 1; 216, stage 2; 75 stage 3; 206 stage 4; 213 stage 5. Five-year transition rate towards a different stage, for stages 1-4 was 34.5%, 42%, 65% and 78%, respectively (P < 0.0001); 5-year mortality for stages 1-5 was 1.5%, 10%, 20%, 30% and 88% respectively (P < 0.0001). An exploratory analysis showed that this patient stratification may configure a prognostic system independent of the Child-Pugh score, Model for End Stage Liver Disease and comorbidity.

CONCLUSION

The development of oesophago-gastric varices and decompensating events in cirrhosis identify five prognostic stages with significantly increasing mortality risks.

Determinants of alpha-fetoprotein levels in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: implications for its clinical use

BACKGROUND

α-Fetoprotein (AFP) is a biomarker commonly used in the management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), although the possible determinants of its serum levels in these patients have not been adequately explored. For this study, the authors evaluated the relevance of demographic, clinical, and oncologic factors to the presence of elevated AFP levels in large cohort of patients with HCC.

METHODS

In 4123 patients with HCC who were managed by the Italian Liver Cancer Group, AFP levels were assessed along with their association with demographic, biochemical, clinical, and oncologic characteristics. Patients were subdivided according to the presence of elevated AFP (ie, >10 ng/mL).

RESULTS

AFP levels were elevated in 62.4% of patients with HCC. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that being a woman (odds ratio [OR], 1.497; 95% confidence interval [95%CI], 1.250-1.793; P < .0001), the presence of cirrhosis (OR, 1.538; 95% CI, 1.050-2.254; P = .027), liver disease with viral etiology (OR, 1.900; 95% CI, 1.589-2.272; P < .0001), an elevated alanine aminotransferase level (OR, 1.878; 95% CI, 1.602-2.202; P < .0001), a low albumin level (OR, 1.301; 95% CI, 1.110-1.525; P = .012), an HCC tumor size >2 cm (OR, 1.346; 95% CI, 1.135-2.596; P = .001), multinodular HCC (OR, 1.641; 95% CI, 1.403-1.920; P < .0001), and the presence of vascular invasion (OR, 1.774; 95% CI, 1.361-2.311; P < .0001) were associated independently with elevated levels of AFP. Both the median AFP level and the proportion of patients who had elevated levels increased with decreasing degrees of HCC differentiation (P < .0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Sex and features of chronic liver disease were identified as nontumor characteristics that influence serum AFP levels in patients with HCC. These findings should be taken into account as limitations in interpreting the oncologic meaning of this biomarker in clinical practice.

Can the serological status of anti-HBc alone be considered a sentinel marker for detection of occult HBV infection?

Some individuals have "occult" infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV), defined as presence of HBV genome in the serum or liver tissue without HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) in the serum. The aim of this study was to investigate whether serum antibodies against HBV core antigen in isolation ("anti-HBc alone") are a useful marker of "occult" HBV in patients with or without hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. "Anti-HBc alone" was detected in the sera of 119/6,544 (1.8%) asymptomatic outpatients referred to the diagnostic laboratory for routine testing for viral hepatitis, 62/607 (10.2%) drug users, and 42/195 (21.5%) patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. Using three in-house nested-PCR amplification assays to detect HBV preS-S (S), precore-core (C), and Pol viral regions, respectively, "occult" HBV sequences were found in 9 of the 223 sera (4.0%) with "anti-HBc alone." The highest prevalence of "occult" HBV sequences (5.9%) was detected in "anti-HBV alone" sera of individuals referred to the diagnostic laboratory without HCV antibodies. Direct sequencing of all PCR products confirmed the specificity of the PCR reactions and revealed the predominance of HBV genotype D. The data presented in this study suggest that detection of "anti-HBc alone" could reflect unrecognized "occult" HBV infection and that physicians should consider investigating such patients with HBV molecular tests.

Treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma in compensated cirrhosis with radio-frequency thermal ablation (RFTA): a prospective study

BACKGROUND/AIMS

To assess the effectiveness and the safety of radio-frequency thermal ablation (RFTA) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) < or = 5 cm in compensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

A cohort of 202 consecutive patients (165 Child-Pugh class A and 37 class B) was prospectively assessed. A single lesion was observed in 160/202 (79.2%), two lesions in 29/202 (14.3%), and three lesions in 13/202 (6.4%) of patients.

RESULTS

Sixty-seven patients died. Survival rates were 80% at 12 months, 67% at 24 months and 57% at 30 months (Child-Pugh A 59% and Child-Pugh B 48%). By Cox regression analysis, survival was independently predicted by serum albumin levels > or = 35 g/L, platelet count > or = 100.000/mmc, tumor size < or = 3 cm, complete response at 1 month and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging classification. Overall recurrence rates were 22, 38, and 44% at 12, 24, and 30 months, respectively. One procedure-related death occurred. The proportion of major complications after treatment was 3.9%.

CONCLUSIONS

A complete response after RFTA significantly increases survival. The longest survival is obtained in the presence of HCC < or = 3 cm and of higher baseline albumin levels and platelet counts. BCLC staging classification is able to discriminate patients with good or poor prognosis.

Crohn's disease: a comparative prospective study of transabdominal ultrasonography, small intestine contrast ultrasonography, and small bowel enema

BACKGROUND

Small intestine contrast ultrasonography (SICUS), when performed after distention of the small bowel lumen with an iso-osmolar polyethylene glycol electrolyte-balanced solution, shows high sensitivity (100%) and specificity (97%) in detecting small bowel abnormalities in patients who have not received a diagnosis but in whom there is a suspicion of intestinal diseases. The diagnostic yield of SICUS remains to be established in detecting small bowel lesions in patients with proven Crohn's disease (CD) in comparison with transabdominal ultrasonography (TUS), and in relationship to the experience of the operator, using small bowel enema (SBE) as the "gold standard."

AIM

The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic value of SICUS, when performed by a sonologist with 1 year of experience, and TUS, when performed by a sonologist with 10 years of experience, compared to SBE in the assessment of the site, extension, and stenosis of small intestinal lesions in CD patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 28 consecutive patients (men, 16; women, 12; age range, 21 to 60 yr) with a diagnosis of CD underwent TUS and SICUS, which were performed by 2 sonologists who were unaware of the radiologic findings, on the same day. SICUS was performed after the ingestion of 375 mL of a polyethylene glycol contrast solution. A standard SBE was performed on a different day by an expert radiologist who was unaware of the sonographic findings.

RESULTS

Sensitivities in the detection of small bowel lesions were 96% for TUS and 100% for SICUS. Compared with SBE, SICUS detected the presence of 4 lesions in the jejunum that had been missed by TUS. The mean (+/-SD) extent of the ileal disease was 22 +/- 12.5 cm when measured during SBE, 14.5 +/- 8.6 cm when measured during TUS, and 19.5 +/- 12.5 cm when measured during SICUS [P = 0.05 (SICUS versus SBE)]. The correlation of the extension of the lesions between SICUS and SBE (r = 0.88) was better than that between TUS and SBE (r = 0.64). The sensitivities of TUS and SICUS in the detection of at least 1 stricture were 76% and 94%, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity in assessing prestenotic dilatation were 50% and 100%, respectively, at TUS, and 100% and 90%, respectively, at SICUS.

CONCLUSION

In inexperienced hands, SICUS is a more accurate technique for assessing CD lesions, and the accuracy is better than that of TUS performed by an expert sonologist. The use of SICUS, instead of SBE, could be indicated for the follow-up of patients with CD.

Prognostic indicators of successful endoscopic sclerotherapy for prevention of rebleeding from oesophageal varices in cirrhosis: a long-term cohort study

BACKGROUND

Although band ligation is now recommended for prevention of rebleeding from oesophageal varices in cirrhosis, sclerotherapy is still widely used. Patients submitted to chronic sclerotherapy undergo several endoscopies and experience a large number of serious complications. However, long-term outcome is poorly defined.

AIMS

To assess the clinical course and prognostic indicators of patients undergoing chronic sclerotherapy for prevention of variceal rebleeding as a basis for future evaluation of long-term band ligation outcome.

METHODS

Prospective cohort study; prognostic analysis by the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

A total of 218 consecutive cirrhotic patients (37 Child class A, 154 B, 27 C) were enrolled in the study Varices were obliterated in 139 (64%) patients in a mean of 5 (+/-2.6) sessions and recurred in 58/139 (41.7%) within one year. A total of 132 (60%) patients experienced 283 rebleeding episodes and 73 (33%) died. Bleeding from oesophageal ulcers was the most serious complication causing 14% of all rebleeding episodes. Significant prognostic indicators of sclerotherapy outcome were: Child-Pugh class for variceal obliteration; gastric varices and platelet count for recurrence of varices; failure to obliterate varices, variceal size and gastric varices for rebleeding; blood urea nitrogen and failure to obliterate varices for death. Presence of gastric varices was the only prognostic indicator for death in the 79 patients not achieving variceal obliteration. A mean of 10 endoscopies and of 6 hospital admissions were needed per each patient with an estimated cost of US dollars 7154 per patient during the first two years of therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Sclerotherapy is a very demanding and costly treatment, and is associated with frequent and serious side-effects. The probability of treatment failure is significantly higher in Child C patients with gastric varices. Alternative treatments should be considered for these patients.

Treatment of small hepatocellular carcinoma with percutaneous ethanol injection: a validated prognostic model

OBJECTIVE

Percutaneous ethanol injection may prolong the survival of patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma associated with cirrhosis. The aim was to identify prognostic factors of survival and of local recurrence, as well as separate new lesions.

METHODS

We performed Cox regression analysis in 115 consecutive patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (81 Child-Pugh class A, 34 Child-Pugh class B) treated by percutaneous ethanol injection. The validity of the model was tested by comparing predicted and observed survival in 105 independent patients from an external series.

RESULTS

Overall survival rates were 89%, 63%, and 43% at 1, 2, and 3 yr, respectively. The 1-, 2-, and 3-yr survival rates were 96%, 78%, and 63%, respectively, for Child-Pugh class A patients and were 73%, 35%, 12%, respectively, for Child-Pugh class B. The albumin level was the only independent variable significantly associated with survival (p < 0.0001). The 3-yr rate of appearance of separate new lesions and local recurrence were 41% and 23%, respectively. The survival predicted by the model agreed with that observed in the independent patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated by percutaneous ethanol injection is related to baseline albumin level. The high rate of recurrence (both local and distant) points out the palliative role of this therapy.

Treatment of small hepatocellular carcinoma associated with cirrhosis by percutaneous ethanol injection. A trial with a comparison group

BACKGROUND

Ethanol injection has been reported to be effective in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma, but no controlled randomized trials have been performed. We therefore performed a trial comparing ethanol injection with an untreated, matched historical comparison group in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma.

METHODS

From 1992 to 1993, 35 patients (14 Child's A and 21 Child's B cirrhosis) with small (< 4 cm) hepatocellular carcinoma associated with cirrhosis were treated by ethanol injection. Each patient was matched with an untreated case (followed up during the period 1984-89) for variables known to have independent prognostic value (age, Child's classification, number of lesions, alpha-fetoprotein, and modality of diagnosis).

RESULTS

The 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival rates of ethanol-treated patients were 86% (95% confidence interval (CI), 69-94), 53% (95% CI, 34-68), and 33% (95% CI, 15-52), whereas the survival rates of the comparison group were 75% (95% CI, 56-85), 26% (95% CI, 13-41), and 14% (95% CI, 5-27) (P = 0.01). The 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival rates of Child's A were 100%. 87% (95% CI, 30-97), 71% (95 CI, 33-90), 71% (95% CI, 33-90) in the ethanol-treated patients and 92 (95% CI, 59-99), 43% (95% CI, 23-73), and 21% (95% CI, 23-72) in untreated patients. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival of Child's B patients were 76% (95% CI, 59-97), 32% (95% CI, 13-53), and 9% (95% CI, 0.8-33) in the treated group and 61% (95% CI, 40-83), 14% (95% CI, 3-32), and 9% (95% CI, 1-26) in the treated group.

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that ethanol injection prolongs the life of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma associated with Child's A cirrhosis but seems not to influence the survival of Child's B patients.

Screening for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with Child's A cirrhosis: an 8-year prospective study by ultrasound and alphafetoprotein

One hundred and forty-seven patients with Child's A cirrhosis and no evidence of hepatocellular carcinoma were followed up in an 8-year prospective surveillance program with testing by ultrasound and alphafetoprotein every 6 months. Eighteen of 147 patients were HBsAg positive. Anti-hepatitis C virus antibodies were found in 103 out of 133 cases tested. Sixteen patients had a history of heavy drinking. Thirty hepatocellular carcinomas were detected during follow up. At the time of diagnosis, ultrasound detected focal lesions in all the patients whereas alphafetoprotein was below diagnostic levels. The hepatocellular carcinoma was single in 26 patients and multiple in four. The overall 8-year cumulative tumor-free rate was 69% (95% confidence interval = 58-73). The yearly hepatocellular carcinoma incidence from 1985 to 1992 was respectively 2%, 1.5%, 2%, 3%, 5%, 4.8%, 7% and 10%. The initial value of AFP > 50 ng/ml and < 400 ng/ml was significantly related to the development of hepatocellular carcinoma. This series shows that the cumulative incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhosis in Italy is higher than previously reported, but lower than that observed in Asiatic areas. A 6-month interval for ultrasound is reasonable to detect treatable tumors. Alphafetoprotein has no value for early diagnosis, although its intermediate values (> 50 and < 400 ng/ml) may indicate the presence of undetectable cancer which will appear during the follow up, and suggests that ultrasound should be employed more frequently in patients with these values.

Asymptomatic hepatocellular carcinoma in Child's A cirrhosis. A comparison of natural history and surgical treatment

The present study deals with the natural history of 37 asymptomatic patients with cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, 25 with 2-9-cm tumors who were not surgically treated (first group) and 12 with tumors smaller than 4 cm who underwent resection (second group). All patients were in Child's A class. Two-year survival (according to life-table analysis by the Kaplan-Meier method) was 50% in the first group and 39% in the second group. This difference was not significant. In the first group no relation was found between survival and initial tumor size or alpha-fetoprotein levels. Ultrasound examinations at 3-mo intervals revealed the following patterns of tumor growth: (a) no significant growth during the follow-up (9 patients); (b) significant growth (tumor size at least doubling) only in the final stage of the disease (11 patients); (c) initial significant growth followed by a period of no increase in size (5 patients). These findings show that in our geographical area (a) 2-yr survival of untreated asymptomatic patients with hepatocellular carcinoma associated with cirrhosis does not differ from that of similar patients undergoing resection and (b) the tumor can exhibit long periods of no growth alternating with periods of exponential growth.

[Evolution of the echographic picture in primary liver tumor associated with cirrhosis]

To study the sonographic (US) evolution of hepatocellular carcinoma, 53 tumors in 45 untreated patients were observed regularly with real-time US for a period of 6 to 56 months. At the beginning, 25 tumors were hypoechoic, 18 isoechoic, 4 hyperechoic, and 6 had mixed hypo/hyper echo patterns. At the follow-up, 7 initially hypoechoic tumors had changed to hyperechoic or to mixed echo patterns; 8 hypoechoic tumors had become isoechoic; 9 of the 25 initially hypoechoic neoplastic lesions had maintained the same echo density. Ten of the 15 initially isoechoic tumors had changed to mixed echo patterns, and 5 had remained unchanged. Three initially isoechoic lesions and a hypoechoic one had turned into diffuse patterns; 2 initially hyperechoic neoplastic lesions had remained unchanged; 1 had switched into hypoechoic, and 1 changed to mixed echo pattern; 4 out of 6 tumors with echo pattern had remained unchanged, 1 had become hyperechoic and 1 hypoechoic. The current study has proven various tumors less than or equal to 3 cm phi to be isoechoic, and most tumors greater than 3 cm phi to have mixed hypo/hyper echo patterns. The echogenicity of small hepatocellular carcinomas increases with the tumor growth, and remains unchanged when they do not increase in size.

Early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma associated with cirrhosis by ultrasound and alfafetoprotein: a prospective study

A prospective surveillance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) associated with cirrhosis, using alfafetoprotein (AFP) and real-time ultrasonography (US) was carried out in 157 patients with histologically proven cirrhosis. During a two-year follow-up, 15 asymptomatic HCCs were identified. HCCs detected by these methods were at a relatively early stage, as most tumors were small (13 out of 15 less than 5 cm). US was more sensitive than AFP in the diagnosis of HCC when values greater than 400 ng/ml were considered. Patients with initial AFP values greater than 20 ng/ml developed HCC within two years more frequently than patients with values less than 20 ng/ml. A combined approach using US and AFP is suggested in our geographical area.

Is the acidity of ascitic fluid a reliable index in making the presumptive diagnosis of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis?

Ascitic fluid pH and arterial-ascitic fluid pH gradient were compared to ascitic fluid polymorphonuclear cell count in 84 patients with cirrhotic ascites and in 12 with malignant ascites to assess their role as diagnostic tests for spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and to clarify the relationship between ascitic fluid pH and lactate. Ascitic fluid pH was significantly lower (pH 7.30) in spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (n = 18) and probable spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (n = 12) than in sterile ascites (pH 7.41; n = 54). Since blood pH levels were not different in the presence of infection, arterial-ascitic fluid pH gradient was significantly higher in spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and probable spontaneous bacterial peritonitis than in sterile ascites (0.12 vs. 0.02). The close correlations between arterial-ascitic pH gradient and lactate (r = 0.77, p less than 0.0001), lactate and bicarbonate gradient (r = 0.64, p = 0.003) and arterial-ascitic pH gradient and pCO2 gradient (r = -0.90, p less than 0.0001) suggest that the low ascitic fluid pH may be due to an increase in lactate and CO2. Patients with Escherichia coli-induced spontaneous bacterial peritonitis had significantly lower ascitic fluid pH and higher lactate than those with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis by other organisms. Values of ascitic fluid pH, lactate and arterial-ascitic fluid pH gradient in malignant ascites were similar to those of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and probable spontaneous bacterial peritonitis. Cutoff points, selected by receiver operating characteristic curves analysis, of 450 per mm3 for polymorphonuclear cells and of 0.07 for arterial-ascitic fluid pH gradient, allow high positive and negative predictive values for spontaneous bacterial peritonitis.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)