Prospective evaluation of the prognostic scores for cirrhotic patients admitted to an intensive care unit

Hepatosplanchnic circulation in cirrhosis and sepsis

Hepatosplanchnic circulation receives almost half of cardiac output and is essential to physiologic homeostasis. Liver cirrhosis is estimated to affect up to 1% of populations worldwide, including 1.5% to 3.3% of intensive care unit patients. Cirrhosis leads to hepatosplanchnic circulatory abnormalities and end-organ damage. Sepsis and cirrhosis result in similar circulatory changes and resultant multi-organ dysfunction. This review provides an overview of the hepatosplanchnic circulation in the healthy state and in cirrhosis, examines the signaling pathways that may play a role in the physiology of cirrhosis, discusses the physiology common to cirrhosis and sepsis, and reviews important issues in management.

Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: Recent Concepts

A proportion of patients hospitalized for an acute complication of cirrhosis are at high risk of short-term death. The term Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (ACLF) is used to characterize these patients. Until recently there was no evidence-based definition of ACLF. In 2013 a definition has been proposed based on results of a large prospective observational European study, called "European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL)-Chronic Liver Failure (CLIF) Consortium Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure in Cirrhosis (CANONIC)" study. Results of this study led to elaborate new concepts about ACLF. First, it was found that ACLF is a syndrome that is distinct from mere decompensated cirrhosis. It was also shown that ACLF is a dynamic syndrome which can improve or conversely worsen. Patients who worsen die rapidly from multiorgan failures. The CANONIC study also found that identifiable precipitating events (e.g., bacterial infection, active alcoholism) are found in only 50% of cases of ACLF indicating that these events are dispensable for defining ACLF. In addition precipitating events may be initiators of ACLF but do not drive the outcome. An important concept derived from the CANONIC study is that ACLF is associated with systemic inflammation even in patients who do not have identifiable precipitating events. Finally it was found that ACLF may develop in patients without prior episodes of decompensation or in those with recent decompensation (<3 months). Moreover these patients with "early" ACLF were more severe than patients who developed ACLF after a long of history of decompensated cirrhosis.

Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: Recent Concepts

A proportion of patients hospitalized for an acute complication of cirrhosis are at high risk of short-term death. The term Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (ACLF) is used to characterize these patients. Until recently there was no evidence-based definition of ACLF. In 2013 a definition has been proposed based on results of a large prospective observational European study, called "European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL)-Chronic Liver Failure (CLIF) Consortium Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure in Cirrhosis (CANONIC)" study. Results of this study led to elaborate new concepts about ACLF. First, it was found that ACLF is a syndrome that is distinct from mere decompensated cirrhosis. It was also shown that ACLF is a dynamic syndrome which can improve or conversely worsen. Patients who worsen die rapidly from multiorgan failures. The CANONIC study also found that identifiable precipitating events (e.g., bacterial infection, active alcoholism) are found in only 50% of cases of ACLF indicating that these events are dispensable for defining ACLF. In addition precipitating events may be initiators of ACLF but do not drive the outcome. An important concept derived from the CANONIC study is that ACLF is associated with systemic inflammation even in patients who do not have identifiable precipitating events. Finally it was found that ACLF may develop in patients without prior episodes of decompensation or in those with recent decompensation (<3 months). Moreover these patients with "early" ACLF were more severe than patients who developed ACLF after a long of history of decompensated cirrhosis.

Prognosis of critically ill cirrhotic versus non-cirrhotic patients: a comprehensive score-matched study

Background

Cirrhotic patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) have high mortality rates. The present study compared the characteristics and outcomes of critically ill patients admitted to the ICU with and without cirrhosis using the matched Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III (APACHE III) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores.

Methods

A retrospective case-control study was performed at the medical ICU of a tertiary-care hospital between January 2006 and December 2009. Patients were admitted with life-threatening complications and were matched for APACHE III and SOFA scores. Of 336 patients enrolled in the study, 87 in the cirrhosis or noncirrhosis group were matched according to the APACHE III scores. Another 55 patients with cirrhosis were matched to the 55 patients without cirrhosis according to the SOFA scores. Demographic data, aetiology of ICU admission, and laboratory variables were also evaluated.

Results

The overall hospital mortality rate in the patients with cirrhosis in the APACHE III-matched group was more than that in their counterparts (73.6% vs 57.5%, P = .026) but the rate did not differ significantly in the SOFA-matched group (61.8% vs 67.3%). In the APACHE III-matched group, the SOFA scores of patients with cirrhosis were significantly higher than those of patients without cirrhosis (P < .001), whereas the difference in APACHE III scores was nonsignificant between the SOFA-matched patients with and without cirrhosis.

Conclusions

Score-matched analytical data showed that the SOFA scores significantly differentiated the patients admitted to the ICU with cirrhosis from those without cirrhosis in APACHE III-matched groups, whereas difference in the APACHE III scores between the patients with and without cirrhosis were nonsignificant in the SOFA-matched group.

Advances in management and prognostication in critically ill cirrhotic patients

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To provide an update on the recent publications for the management and prognostication of critically ill cirrhotic patients before and after liver transplant.

RECENT FINDINGS

The CLIF Acute-oN-ChrONicLIver Failure in Cirrhosis (CANONIC) study recently derived an evidence-based definition of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF): hepatic decompensation; organ failure [predefined by the Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA)]; and high 28-day mortality rate. Although Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) appears to be more accurate in predicting ICU and hospital mortality in ACLF patients, CLIF-SOFA has been derived specifically for critically ill cirrhotic patients, including those not receiving mechanical ventilation. Recent data suggest that a lower transfusion target in esophageal variceal bleeding (<7 g/l) is safe. Newly defined 'cirrhosis-associated acute kidney injury (AKI)' correlates with mortality, organ failure and length of hospital stay. Although the SOFA score appears to perform better than liver-specific scoring systems [Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Child-Pugh scores], neither MELD nor SOFA appears to independently predict posttransplant survival; however, correlated with lengths of ICU and hospital stay. For patients declined for liver transplant, palliative care referral and appropriate goals of care are rarely achieved.

SUMMARY

New definitions for ACLF, cirrhosis-associated AKI and the CLIF-SOFA may improve the discrimination between survivors and nonsurvivors with ACLF. Predicting futility postliver transplant based on preliver transplant severity of illness still poses significant challenges.

Development and validation of a prognostic score to predict mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a frequent syndrome (30% prevalence), characterized by acute decompensation of cirrhosis, organ failure(s) and high short-term mortality. This study develops and validates a specific prognostic score for ACLF patients.

METHODS

Data from 1349 patients included in the CANONIC study were used. First, a simplified organ function scoring system (CLIF Consortium Organ Failure score, CLIF-C OFs) was developed to diagnose ACLF using data from all patients. Subsequently, in 275 patients with ACLF, CLIF-C OFs and two other independent predictors of mortality (age and white blood cell count) were combined to develop a specific prognostic score for ACLF (CLIF Consortium ACLF score [CLIF-C ACLFs]). A concordance index (C-index) was used to compare the discrimination abilities of CLIF-C ACLF, MELD, MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), and Child-Pugh (CPs) scores. The CLIF-C ACLFs was validated in an external cohort and assessed for sequential use.

RESULTS

The CLIF-C ACLFs showed a significantly higher predictive accuracy than MELDs, MELD-Nas, and CPs, reducing (19-28%) the corresponding prediction error rates at all main time points after ACLF diagnosis (28, 90, 180, and 365 days) in both the CANONIC and the external validation cohort. CLIF-C ACLFs computed at 48 h, 3-7 days, and 8-15 days after ACLF diagnosis predicted the 28-day mortality significantly better than at diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

The CLIF-C ACLFs at ACLF diagnosis is superior to the MELDs and MELD-Nas in predicting mortality. The CLIF-C ACLFs is a clinically relevant, validated scoring system that can be used sequentially to stratify the risk of mortality in ACLF patients.

Intensive care unit management of patients with liver failure

Acute liver failure (ALF) and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) usually mandate management within an intensive care unit (ICU). Even though the conditions bear some similarities, precipitating causes, and systemic complications management practices differ. Although early identification of ALF and ACLF, improvements in ICU management, and the widespread availability of liver transplantation have improved mortality, optimal management practices have not been defined. This article summarizes current ICU management practices and identifies areas of management that require further study.

Impact of infection on the prognosis of critically ill cirrhotic patients: results from a large worldwide study

BACKGROUND

Infections are a leading cause of death in patients with advanced cirrhosis, but there are relatively few data on the epidemiology of infection in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with cirrhosis.

AIMS

We used data from the Extended Prevalence of Infection in Intensive Care (EPIC) II 1-day point-prevalence study to better define the characteristics of infection in these patients.

METHODS

We compared characteristics, including occurrence and types of infections in non-cirrhotic and cirrhotic patients who had not undergone liver transplantation.

RESULTS

The EPIC II database includes 13,796 adult patients from 1265 ICUs: 410 of the patients had cirrhosis. The prevalence of infection was higher in cirrhotic than in non-cirrhotic patients (59 vs. 51%, P < 0.01). The lungs were the most common site of infection in all patients, but abdominal infections were more common in cirrhotic than in non-cirrhotic patients (30 vs. 19%, P < 0.01). Infected cirrhotic patients more often had Gram-positive (56 vs. 47%, P < 0.05) isolates than did infected non-cirrhotic patients. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) was more frequent in cirrhotic patients. The hospital mortality rate of cirrhotic patients was 42%, compared to 24% in the non-cirrhotic population (P < 0.001). Severe sepsis and septic shock were associated with higher in-hospital mortality rates in cirrhotic than in non-cirrhotic patients (41% and 71% vs. 30% and 49%, respectively, P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Infection is more common in cirrhotic than in non-cirrhotic ICU patients and more commonly caused by Gram-positive organisms, including MRSA. Infection in patients with cirrhosis was associated with higher mortality rates than in non-cirrhotic patients.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure: consensus recommendations of the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) 2014

The first consensus report of the working party of the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) set up in 2004 on acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) was published in 2009. Due to the rapid advancements in the knowledge and available information, a consortium of members from countries across Asia Pacific, "APASL ACLF Research Consortium (AARC)," was formed in 2012. A large cohort of retrospective and prospective data of ACLF patients was collated and followed up in this data base. The current ACLF definition was reassessed based on the new AARC data base. These initiatives were concluded on a 2-day meeting in February 2014 at New Delhi and led to the development of the final AARC consensus. Only those statements which were based on the evidence and were unanimously recommended were accepted. These statements were circulated again to all the experts and subsequently presented at the annual conference of the APASL at Brisbane, on March 14, 2014. The suggestions from the delegates were analyzed by the expert panel, and the modifications in the consensus were made. The final consensus and guidelines document was prepared. After detailed deliberations and data analysis, the original proposed definition was found to withstand the test of time and identify a homogenous group of patients presenting with liver failure. Based on the AARC data, liver failure grading, and its impact on the "Golden therapeutic Window," extra-hepatic organ failure and development of sepsis were analyzed. New management options including the algorithms for the management of coagulation disorders, renal replacement therapy, sepsis, variceal bleed, antivirals, and criteria for liver transplantation for ACLF patients were proposed. The final consensus statements along with the relevant background information are presented here.

Scoring systems for predicting mortality after liver transplantation

Background

Liver transplantation can prolong survival in patients with end-stage liver disease. We have proposed that the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score calculated on post-transplant day 7 has a great discriminative power for predicting 1-year mortality after liver transplantation. The Chronic Liver Failure - Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA) score, a modified SOFA score, is a newly developed scoring system exclusively for patients with end-stage liver disease. This study was designed to compare the CLIF-SOFA score with other main scoring systems in outcome prediction for liver transplant patients.

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed medical records of 323 patients who had received liver transplants in a tertiary care university hospital from October 2002 to December 2010. Demographic parameters and clinical characteristic variables were recorded on the first day of admission before transplantation and on post-transplantation days 1, 3, 7, and 14.

Results

The overall 1-year survival rate was 78.3% (253/323). Liver diseases were mostly attributed to hepatitis B virus infection (34%). The CLIF-SOFA score had better discriminatory power than the Child-Pugh points, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, RIFLE (risk of renal dysfunction, injury to the kidney, failure of the kidney, loss of kidney function, and end-stage kidney disease) criteria, and SOFA score. The AUROC curves were highest for CLIF-SOFA score on post-liver transplant day 7 for predicting 1-year mortality. The cumulative survival rates differed significantly for patients with a CLIF-SOFA score ≤8 and those with a CLIF-SOFA score >8 on post-liver transplant day 7.

Conclusion

The CLIF-SOFA score can increase the prediction accuracy of prognosis after transplantation. Moreover, the CLIF-SOFA score on post-transplantation day 7 had the best discriminative power for predicting 1-year mortality after liver transplantation.

Improved prognosis of septic shock in patients with cirrhosis: a multicenter study*

OBJECTIVE

To determine the evolution of the outcome of patients with cirrhosis and septic shock.

DESIGN

A 13-year (1998-2010) multicenter retrospective cohort study of prospectively collected data.

SETTING

The Collège des Utilisateurs des Bases des données en Réanimation (CUB-Réa) database recording data related to admissions in 32 ICUs in Paris area.

PATIENTS

Thirty-one thousand two hundred fifty-one patients with septic shock were analyzed; 2,383 (7.6%) had cirrhosis.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Compared with noncirrhotic patients, patients with cirrhosis had higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (63.1 ± 22.7 vs 58.5 ± 22.8, p < 0.0001) and higher prevalence of renal (71.5% vs 54.8%, p < 0.0001) and neurological (26.1% vs 19.5%, p < 0.0001) dysfunctions. Over the study period, in-ICU and in-hospital mortality was higher in patients with cirrhosis (70.1% and 74.5%) compared with noncirrhotic patients (48.3% and 51.7%, p < 0.0001 for both comparisons). Cirrhosis was independently associated with an increased risk of death in ICU (adjusted odds ratio = 2.524 [2.279-2.795]). In patients with cirrhosis, factors independently associated with in-ICU mortality were as follows: admission for a medical reason, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, mechanical ventilation, renal replacement therapy, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, positive blood culture, and infection by fungus, whereas direct admission and admission during the most recent midterm period (2004-2010) were associated with a decreased risk of death. From 1998 to 2010, prevalence of septic shock in patients with cirrhosis increased from 8.64 to 15.67 per 1,000 admissions to ICU (p < 0.0001) and their in-ICU mortality decreased from 73.8% to 65.5% (p = 0.01) despite increasing Simplified Acute Physiology Score II. In-ICU mortality decreased from 84.7% to 68.5% for those patients placed under mechanical ventilation (p = 0.004) and from 91.2% to 78.4% for those who received renal replacement therapy (p = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

The outcome of patients with cirrhosis and septic shock has markedly improved over time, akin to the noncirrhotic population. In 2010, the in-ICU survival rate was 35%, which now fully justifies to admit these patients to ICU.

The Royal Free Hospital score: a calibrated prognostic model for patients with cirrhosis admitted to intensive care unit. Comparison with current models and CLIF-SOFA score

OBJECTIVES

Prognosis for patients with cirrhosis admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) is poor. ICU prognostic models are more accurate than liver-specific models. We identified predictors of mortality, developed a novel prognostic score (Royal Free Hospital (RFH) score), and tested it against established prognostic models and the yet unvalidated Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA) model.

METHODS

Predictors of mortality were defined by logistic regression in a cohort of 635 consecutive patients with cirrhosis admitted to ICU (1989-2012). The RFH score was derived using a 75% training and 25% validation set. Predictive accuracy and calibration were evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) and goodness-of-fit χ(2) for the RFH score, as well as for SOFA, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II), and Child-Pugh. CLIF-SOFA was applied to a recent subset (2005-2012) of patients.

RESULTS

In-hospital mortality was 52.3%. Mortality improved over time but with a corresponding reduction in acuity of illness on admission. Predictors of mortality in training set, which constituted the RFH score, were the following: bilirubin, international normalized ratio, lactate, alveolar arterial partial pressure oxygen gradient, urea, while variceal bleeding as indication for admission conferred lesser risk. Classification accuracy was 73.4% in training and 76.7% in validation sample and did not change significantly across different eras of admission. The AUROC for the derived model was 0.83 and the goodness-of-fit χ(2) was 3.74 (P=0.88). AUROC for SOFA was 0.81, MELD was 0.79, APACHE II was 0.78, and Child-Pugh was 0.67. In 2005-2012 cohort, AUROC was: SOFA: 0.74, CLIF-SOFA: 0.75, and RFH: 0.78. Goodness-of-fit χ(2) was: SOFA: 6.21 (P=0.63), CLIF-SOFA: 9.18 (P=0.33), and RFH: 2.91 (P=0.94).

CONCLUSIONS

RFH score demonstrated good discriminative ability and calibration. Internal validation supports its generalizability. CLIF-SOFA did not perform better than RFH and the original SOFA. External validation of our model should be undertaken to confirm its clinical utility.

Outcome of patients with cirrhosis requiring mechanical ventilation in ICU

INTRODUCTION

Mortality rate of patients with cirrhosis admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) and requiring mechanical ventilation varies between 60 and 91%. The aim of our study is to assess the prognosis of these patients, their 1-year outcome and to analyze predictive factors of long-term mortality.

METHODS

From May 2005 to May 2011, we studied 246 consecutive patients with cirrhosis requiring mechanical ventilation either at admission or during their ICU stay.

RESULTS

Alcohol was the most common etiology of the cirrhosis (69%). Bleeding related to portal hypertension (30%) and severe sepsis (33%) were the most common reasons for admission. ICU and hospital mortality were respectively 65.9% and 70.3%. Prognostic severity scores, the need for other organ support therapy, infection, and total bilirubin value at ICU admission were significantly associated with ICU mortality. Eighty-four patients (34.1%) were discharged from the ICU. Among these patients, the one-year survival was only of 32%. Logistic regression analysis, using survival at one year as the endpoint, identified two independent risk factors: the length of ventilation (odds ratio [OR] = 1.1; 95% CI, 1.0-1.2; p = 0.02) and total bilirubin at ICU discharge (OR = 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.5; p = 0.006).

CONCLUSION

Patients with cirrhosis admitted to the liver ICU and who required mechanical ventilation have a poor prognosis with a 1-year mortality of 89%. At ICU discharge, a total bilirubin level higher than 64.5 μmol/L and length of ventilation higher than 9 days could help the hepatologists to identify patients at risk of death in the year following the ICU discharge.

Prognostic scores for cirrhotic patients admitted to an intensive care unit: which consequences for liver transplantation?

Mortality is increased in cirrhotic patients admitted in ICU whatever the admission reason. Prognosis scores assessed in critically ill cirrhotic patients in ICU can be classified in three main categories: liver-specific (CTP and MELD) scores, general (SAPS II and APACHE) scores, and organ failure (OSF and SOFA) scores. The components of the liver-specific scores can be influenced by the acute disease indicating the admission to ICU but those of the non liver-specific scores can be influenced by the underlying liver cirrhosis. Many studies reported that organ failure scores are the best predictors of outcome in cirrhotic patients in ICU. We may wonder if cirrhotic patients with acute organ failures should receive prioritization for organ allocation to save their life or should be denied for a potential futile LT. According to recent studies, the SOFA score is associated with a higher risk of death for patients waiting for LT but could not be associated with a worse outcome after LT. It becomes of paramount importance to correctly identify the cirrhotic patients who will maximally benefit from LT after admission to ICU. The EASL-CLIF Consortium defines the CLIF-SOFA score, redefining the SOFA score with cut-off levels based on mortality prediction. The CLIF-SOFA could represent the ideal score in ICU since it is based on organ failures with cut-off values specifically identified in cirrhotic patients. The validation of the CLIF-SOFA score in critically ill cirrhotic patients admitted to ICU and its usefulness to identify patients who could benefit from LT should be the next steps.

Cirrhotic patients in the ICU: prognostic markers and outcome

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Give an update on the importance of prognostic scores at admission to the ICU for defining short-term outcome in critically ill cirrhotic patients. Highlight the correlation between the development of sepsis and/or organ failure and outcome.

RECENT FINDINGS

ICU mortality rate of cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU ranges from 34 to 69%. Few improvements in the management of these patients occurred during the last decade. Definitive treatment relies mainly on the availability of transplant organs. ICU scores (mainly Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score) when performed at admission or within 2-4 days from admission are superior to liver specific scores (Model for End-Stage Liver Disease and Child-Pugh scores) to determine outcome. Cirrhotic patients with three or more organ failures have higher mortality then general ICU patients in the same condition. An attempt to define an entity called 'acute on chronic liver failure' that characterizes better those patients with worse outcomes according to the numbers of organ failures is currently undergoing.

SUMMARY

Early referral of cirrhotic patients to ICU before the development of multiple extrahepatic organ failure is essential to improve outcome. Current scores should be used only for clinical trials and not to determine the potential futility or costs of an ICU admission.

[Management of decompensated liver cirrhosis in the intensive care unit]

Liver cirrhosis is the end-stage of long-standing chronic liver diseases. The occurrence of complications from liver cirrhosis increases the mortality risk, but the prognosis can be improved by optimal management in the intensive care unit (ICU). Defined diagnostic algorithms allow the etiology and presence of typical complications upon presentation to the ICU to be identified. Acute variceal bleeding requires endoscopic intervention, vasoactive drugs, antibiotics, supportive intensive care measures and, where necessary, urgent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) procedure. Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis needs to be diagnosed and immediately treated in patients with ascites. Hepatorenal syndrome should be treated by albumin and terlipressin. In case of respiratory failure, differential diagnosis should not only consider pneumonia, pulmonary embolism and cardiac failure, but also hepatic hydrothorax, portopulmonary hypertension and hepatopulmonary syndrome. The feasibility of liver transplantation should be always discussed in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Artificial liver support devices may only serve as a bridging procedure until transplant.

Factors that predict short-term intensive care unit mortality in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Despite advances in critical care medicine, the mortality rate is high among critically ill patients with cirrhosis. We aimed to identify factors that predict early (7 d) mortality among patients with cirrhosis admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) and to develop a risk-stratification model.

METHODS

We collected data from patients with cirrhosis admitted to the ICU at Indiana University (IU-ICU) from December 1, 2006, through December 31, 2009 (n = 185), or at the University of Pennsylvania (Penn-ICU) from May 1, 2005, through December 31, 2010 (n = 206). Factors associated with mortality within 7 days of admission (7-d mortality) were determined by logistic regression analyses. A model was constructed based on the predictive parameters available on the first day of ICU admission in the IU-ICU cohort and then validated in the Penn-ICU cohort.

RESULTS

Median Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores at ICU admission were 25 in the IU-ICU cohort (interquartile range, 23-34) and 32 in the Penn-ICU cohort (interquartile range, 26-41); corresponding 7-day mortalities were 28.3% and 53.6%, respectively. MELD score (odds ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07-1.2) and mechanical ventilation (odds ratio, 5.7; 95% CI, 2.3-14.1) were associated independently with 7-day mortality in the IU-ICU. A model based on these 2 variables separated IU-ICU patients into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups; these groups had 7-day mortalities of 9%, 27%, and 74%, respectively (concordance index, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.72-0.87; P < 10(-8)). The model was applied to the Penn-ICU cohort; the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups had 7-day mortalities of 33%, 56%, and 71%, respectively (concordance index, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.59-0.74; P < 10(-4)).

CONCLUSIONS

A model based on MELD score and mechanical ventilation on day 1 can stratify risk of early mortality in patients with cirrhosis admitted to the ICU. More studies are needed to validate this model and to enhance its clinical utility.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure: excellent outcomes after liver transplantation but high mortality on the wait list

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is characterized by high short-term mortality. Liver transplantation (LT) is a potential therapy for patients who do not improve with supportive measures, but the efficacy of LT has not been shown. The aim of this study was to investigate the feasibility of LT and to determine the postoperative outcomes of patients with ACLF. All patients referred to our liver unit between 2002 and 2010 were registered in a database. The diagnosis of ACLF was made in accordance with the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver consensus. The post-LT outcomes were compared with the outcomes of a cohort of patients with chronic liver disease who underwent transplantation for other indications during the same period. One hundred forty four of 238 patients fulfilled the ACLF criteria. In an intention-to-treat analysis, the median transplant-free survival time was 48 days. Multiorgan failure was the most common cause of death. Ninety-four patients (65%) were evaluated for LT, 71 patients (49%) were listed, and 33 patients (23%) finally underwent deceased donor LT; this resulted in a wait-list mortality rate of 54%. Patients who developed infectious complications (particularly pneumonia and/or sepsis) and patients who received renal replacement therapy or mechanical ventilation were less likely to undergo LT. The 1- and 5-year survival rates of 87% and 82% were comparable to the rates for non-ACLF patients. In conclusion, this study shows that LT remains the only therapeutic option for the vast majority of patients with ACLF. However, LT was feasible in less than one fourth of the patients with a 5-year survival rate greater than 80%.

Plasma copeptin, a possible prognostic marker in cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIM

Copeptin, secreted stoichiometrically with vasopressin, demonstrated its prognostic role in various diseases other than cirrhosis.

METHODS

We investigated the association between severity of cirrhosis and plasma concentrations of copeptin, and the prognostic value of copeptin in 95 non-septic cirrhotic patients (34 Child-Pugh A, 29 CP-B, 32 CP-C), 30 septic patients with a Child-Pugh >8 ('group D'), and 16 healthy volunteers. Patients were followed for at least 12 months to assess the composite endpoint death/liver transplantation.

RESULTS

Median copeptin concentrations (interquartile range) increased through healthy volunteers group [5.95 (3.76-9.43) pmol/L] and 'group D' patients [18.81 (8.96-36.66) pmol/L; P < 0.001)]. During a median follow-up of 11.0 ± 6.1 months, 28 non-transplanted patients died and eight were transplanted. In receiver operated characteristic curves analysis, the area under the curve values were as follows: Child-Pugh score 0.80 (95% CI: 0.71-0.86), model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score 0.80 (0.70-0.86), C-reactive protein (CRP) 0.71 (0.60-0.80) and copeptin 0.70 (0.57-0.79). By stratifying the values of these variables into tertiles, the risk of death/liver transplantation for patients belonging to the highest tertile of copeptin (>13 pmol/L) was high (Log-rank test: P = 0.0002) and 2.3-fold higher than for patients with lower concentrations after adjusting for MELD score (>21) and CRP (>24 mg/L) in a Cox model. Other potential predictors (age, total cholesterol, natraemia and serum free cortisol) did not reach a significant level.

CONCLUSION

In cirrhotic patients, copeptin concentrations increased along with the severity of liver disease. In our cohort, the 1-year mortality or liver transplantation was predicted by high MELD score and high concentrations of CRP and copeptin.

Acute-on-chronic liver failure is a distinct syndrome that develops in patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Patients with cirrhosis hospitalized for an acute decompensation (AD) and organ failure are at risk for imminent death and considered to have acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, there are no established diagnostic criteria for ACLF, so little is known about its development and progression. We aimed to identify diagnostic criteria of ACLF and describe the development of this syndrome in European patients with AD.

METHODS

We collected data from 1343 hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and AD from February to September 2011 at 29 liver units in 8 European countries. We used the organ failure and mortality data to define ACLF grades, assess mortality, and identify differences between ACLF and AD. We established diagnostic criteria for ACLF based on analyses of patients with organ failure (defined by the chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment [CLIF-SOFA] score) and high 28-day mortality rate (>15%).

RESULTS

Of the patients assessed, 303 had ACLF when the study began, 112 developed ACLF, and 928 did not have ACLF. The 28-day mortality rate among patients who had ACLF when the study began was 33.9%, among those who developed ACLF was 29.7%, and among those who did not have ACLF was 1.9%. Patients with ACLF were younger and more frequently alcoholic, had more associated bacterial infections, and had higher numbers of leukocytes and higher plasma levels of C-reactive protein than patients without ACLF (P < .001). Higher CLIF-SOFA scores and leukocyte counts were independent predictors of mortality in patients with ACLF. In patients without a prior history of AD, ACLF was unexpectedly characterized by higher numbers of organ failures, leukocyte count, and mortality compared with ACLF in patients with a prior history of AD.

CONCLUSIONS

We analyzed data from patients with cirrhosis and AD to establish diagnostic criteria for ACLF and showed that it is distinct from AD, based not only on the presence of organ failure(s) and high mortality rate but also on age, precipitating events, and systemic inflammation. ACLF mortality is associated with loss of organ function and high leukocyte counts. ACLF is especially severe in patients with no prior history of AD.

Increased survival of cirrhotic patients with septic shock

Introduction

The overall outcome of septic shock has been recently improved. We sought to determine whether this survival gain extends to the high-risk subgroup of patients with cirrhosis.

Methods

Cirrhotic patients with septic shock admitted to a medical intensive care unit (ICU) during two consecutive periods (1997-2004 and 2005-2010) were retrospectively studied.

Results

Forty-seven and 42 cirrhotic patients presented with septic shock in 1997-2004 and 2005-2010, respectively. The recent period differed from the previous one by implementation of adjuvant treatments of septic shock including albumin infusion as fluid volume therapy, low-dose glucocorticoids, and intensive insulin therapy. ICU and hospital survival markedly improved over time (40% in 2005-2010 vs. 17% in 1997-2004, P = 0.02 and 29% in 2005-2010 vs. 6% in 1997-2004, P = 0.009, respectively). Furthermore, this survival gain in the latter period was sustained for 6 months (survival rate 24% in 2005-2010 vs. 6% in 1997-2004, P = 0.06). After adjustment with age, the liver disease stage (Child-Pugh score), and the critical illness severity score (SOFA score), ICU admission between 2005 and 2010 remained an independent favorable prognostic factor (odds ratio (OR) 0.09, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.02-0.4, P = 0.004). The stage of the underlying liver disease was also independently associated with hospital mortality (Child-Pugh score: OR 1.42 per point, 95% CI 1.06-1.9, P = 0.018).

Conclusions

In the light of advances in management of both cirrhosis and septic shock, survival of such patients substantially increased over recent years. The stage of the underlying liver disease and the related therapeutic options should be included in the decision-making process for ICU admission.

Regional variability in liver waiting list removals causes false ascertainment of waiting list deaths

Inconsistent identification of reasons for removal from the liver transplant waiting list by Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) regions may contribute to regional variability in wait-list death rates. We analyzed OPTN and Social Security Administration (SSA) reported deaths of 103 364 liver transplant candidates listed May 8, 2003-April 17, 2011, and determined regional variability in risk of death attributable to differences in use of OPTN removal codes. Only 26% of candidates removed as "too sick" died within 90 days of delisting; 6335 deaths after delisting were not reported to OPTN. The ratio of number of candidates removed as "too sick" to number who died on the waiting list varied by region from 0.23 to 0.94, indicating substantial variability in use of removal codes. Including SSA-reported deaths within 90 days of delisting reduced regional variability in risk of death by 48% compared with deaths on the list alone, and by 35% compared with deaths plus the "too sick" designation. Codes for delisting liver transplant candidates are inconsistently applied among OPTN regions, spuriously elevating estimated regional variability in risk of wait-list death. This variability is ameliorated by including SSA- reported deaths within 90 days of delisting.

Acute-on chronic liver failure

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is an increasingly recognised entity encompassing an acute deterioration of liver function in patients with cirrhosis, which is usually associated with a precipitating event and results in the failure of one or more organs and high short term mortality. Prospective data to define this is lacking but there is a large body of circumstantial evidence suggesting that this condition is a distinct clinical entity. From the pathophysiologic perspective, altered host response to injury and infection play important roles in its development. This review focuses upon the current understanding of this syndrome from the clinical, prognostic and pathophysiologic perspectives and indicates potential biomarkers and therapeutic targets for intervention.

Second infections independently increase mortality in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis: the North American consortium for the study of end-stage liver disease (NACSELD) experience

Bacterial infections are an important cause of mortality in cirrhosis, but there is a paucity of multicenter studies. The aim was to define factors predisposing to infection-related mortality in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis. A prospective, cohort study of patients with cirrhosis with infections was performed at eight North American tertiary-care hepatology centers. Data were collected on admission vitals, disease severity (model for endstage liver disease [MELD] and sequential organ failure [SOFA] scores), first infection site, type (community-acquired, healthcare-associated [HCA] or nosocomial), and second infection occurrence during hospitalization. The outcome was mortality within 30 days. A multivariate logistic regression model predicting mortality was created. 207 patients (55 years, 60% men, MELD 20) were included. Most first infections were HCA (71%), then nosocomial (15%) and community-acquired (14%). Urinary tract infections (52%), spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP, 23%) and spontaneous bacteremia (21%) formed the majority of the first infections. Second infections were seen in 50 (24%) patients and were largely preventable: respiratory, including aspiration (28%), urinary, including catheter-related (26%), fungal (14%), and Clostridium difficile (12%) infections. Forty-nine patients (23.6%) who died within 30 days had higher admission MELD (25 versus 18, P < 0.0001), lower serum albumin (2.4 g/dL versus 2.8 g/dL, P = 0.002), and second infections (49% versus 16%, P < 0.0001) but equivalent SOFA scores (9.2 versus 9.9, P = 0.86). The case fatality rate was highest for C. difficile (40%), respiratory (37.5%), and spontaneous bacteremia (37%), and lowest for SBP (17%) and urinary infections (15%). The model for mortality included admission MELD (odds ratio [OR]: 1.12), heart rate (OR: 1.03) albumin (OR: 0.5), and second infection (OR: 4.42) as significant variables.

CONCLUSION

Potentially preventable second infections are predictors of mortality independent of liver disease severity in this multicenter cirrhosis cohort.

Role of predisposition, injury, response and organ failure in the prognosis of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure: a prospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Acute deterioration of cirrhosis is associated with high mortality rates particularly in the patients who develop organ failure (OF), a condition that is referred to as acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), which is currently not completely defined. This study aimed to determine the role of predisposing factors, the nature of the precipitating illness and inflammatory response in the progression to OF according to the PIRO (predisposition, injury, response, organ failure) concept to define the risk of in-hospital mortality.

METHODS

A total of 477 patients admitted with acute deterioration of cirrhosis following a defined precipitant over a 5.5-year period were prospectively studied. Baseline clinical, demographic and biochemical data were recorded for all patients and extended serial data from the group that progressed to OF were analysed to define the role of PIRO in determining in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

One hundred and fifty-nine (33%) patients developed OF, of whom 93 patients died (58%) compared with 25/318 (8%) deaths in the non-OF group (P < 0.0001). Progression to OF was associated with more severe underlying liver disease and inflammation. In the OF group, previous hospitalisation (P of PIRO); severity of inflammation and lack of its resolution (R of PIRO); and severity of organ failure (O of PIRO) were associated with significantly greater risk of death. In the patients who recovered from OF, mortality at three years was almost universal.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this prospective study shows that the occurrence of OF alters the natural history of cirrhosis. A classification based on the PIRO concept may allow categorization of patients into distinct pathophysiologic and prognostic groups and allow a multidimensional definition of ACLF.

Improvement in the prognosis of cirrhotic patients admitted to an intensive care unit, a retrospective study

OBJECTIVE

To examine how the outcomes of cirrhotic patients admitted to an ICU have changed over time.

METHODS

A retrospective study in a medical ICU during two separate 3-year periods [period 1 (P1): 1995-1998 and period 2 (P2): 2005-2008].

RESULTS

A total of 56 cirrhotic patients were admitted during P1 and 138 during P2, accounting for 2.3 and 4.5% of the total ICU admissions (P<0.01). Patients' characteristics were markedly different between the two periods: previous functional status improved (Knaus scale, A/B/C/D: P1 - 7.1%/53.6%/35.7%/3.6% vs. P2 - 28.2%/47.8%/22.5%/1.5%, P<0.01), the number of comorbidities decreased (Charlson: 1.79±2.22 vs. 1.02±1.40, P=0.02), the severity of cirrhosis increased [Child-Pugh: 8 (7-13) vs. 11 (8-13), P=0.04; Model for End-Stage Liver Disease: 16 (12-28) vs. 22 (15-31), P=0.02], and acute organ dysfunctions increased (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment: 7.3±5.6 vs. 11.3±5.5, P<0.01). The crude in-ICU mortality was similar during the two periods (39.3 vs. 41.3%, P=0.92). However, after adjustment for severity, in-ICU mortality was markedly decreased during P2 (odds ratio: 0.36 [0.15; 0.88], P=0.02).

CONCLUSION

Cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU have an improved outcome despite increased severity of liver disease. This improvement is associated with a higher selection according to their previous functional status and comorbidities.

The end-organ impairment in liver cirrhosis: appointments for critical care

Liver cirrhosis (LC) can lead to a clinical state of liver failure, which can exacerbate through the course of the disease. New therapies aimed to control the diverse etiologies are now more effective, although the disease may result in advanced stages of liver failure, where liver transplantation (LT) remains the most effective treatment. The extended lifespan of these patients and the extended possibilities of liver support devices make their admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) more probable. In this paper the LC is approached from the point of view of the pathophysiological alterations present in LC patients previous to ICU admission, particularly cardiovascular, but also renal, coagulopathic, and encephalopathic. Infections and available liver detoxifications devices also deserve mentioning. We intend to contribute towards ICU physician readiness to the care for this particular type of patients, possibly in dedicated ICUs.

[Monitoring of organ functions. Dysfunction of kidneys, liver, gastrointestinal tract, and coagulation]

Monitoring of organ function is one of the core tasks of intensive care medicine. Although various monitoring devices and parameters have already been established for some organs, there are no or only few conditionally useful parameters or scores available for the kidneys, liver, gastrointestinal tract, and blood coagulation. Therefore, specific biomarkers and scores as well as combinations of both are currently investigated for better monitoring of these organs. This article gives a critical overview of currently used as well as investigational biomarkers, tests and scores in general, and shows some examples of the implications for common diseases, clinical situations and constellations in the intensive care unit.