Empirical perspectives on species borders: from traditional biogeography to global change

Field-level validation of a CLIMEX model for Cactoblastis cactorum (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) using estimated larval growth rates

Invasive pests, such as the cactus moth, Cactoblastis cactorum (Berg) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), have not reached equilibrium distributions and present unique opportunities to validate models by comparing predicted distributions with eventual realized geographic ranges. A CLIMEX model was developed for C. cactorum. Model validation was attempted at the global scale by comparing worldwide distribution against known occurrence records and at the field scale by comparing CLIMEX "growth indices" against field measurements of larval growth. Globally, CLIMEX predicted limited potential distribution in North America (from the Caribbean Islands to Florida, Texas, and Mexico), Africa (South Africa and parts of the eastern coast), southern India, parts of Southeast Asia, and the northeastern coast of Australia. Actual records indicate the moth has been found in the Caribbean (Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat Saint Kitts and Nevis, Cayman Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands), Cuba, Bahamas, Puerto Rico, southern Africa, Kenya, Mexico, and Australia. However, the model did not predict that distribution would extend from India to the west into Pakistan. In the United States, comparison of the predicted and actual distribution patterns suggests that the moth may be close to its predicted northern range along the Atlantic coast. Parts of Texas and most of Mexico may be vulnerable to geographic range expansion of C. cactorum. Larval growth rates in the field were estimated by measuring differences in head capsules and body lengths of larval cohorts at weekly intervals. Growth indices plotted against measures of larval growth rates compared poorly when CLIMEX was run using the default historical weather data. CLIMEX predicted a single period conducive to insect development, in contrast to the three generations observed in the field. Only time and more complete records will tell whether C. cactorum will extend its geographical distribution to regions predicted by the CLIMEX model. In terms of small scale temporal predictions, this study suggests that CLIMEX indices may agree with field-specific population dynamics, provided an adequate metric for insect growth rate is used and weather data are location and time specific.

Birds track their Grinnellian niche through a century of climate change

In the face of environmental change, species can evolve new physiological tolerances to cope with altered climatic conditions or move spatially to maintain existing physiological associations with particular climates that define each species' climatic niche. When environmental change occurs over short temporal and large spatial scales, vagile species are expected to move geographically by tracking their climatic niches through time. Here, we test for evidence of niche tracking in bird species of the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, focusing on 53 species resurveyed nearly a century apart at 82 sites on four elevational transects. Changes in climate and bird distributions resulted in focal species shifting their average climatological range over time. By comparing the directions of these shifts relative to the centroids of species' range-wide climatic niches, we found that 48 species (90.6%) tracked their climatic niche. Analysis of niche sensitivity on an independent set of occurrence data significantly predicted the temperature and precipitation gradients tracked by species. Furthermore, in 50 species (94.3%), site-specific occupancy models showed that the position of each site relative to the climatic niche centroid explained colonization and extinction probabilities better than a null model with constant probabilities. Combined, our results indicate that the factors limiting a bird species' range in the Sierra Nevada in the early 20th century also tended to drive changes in distribution over time, suggesting that climatic models derived from niche theory might be used successfully to forecast where and how to conserve species in the face of climate change.

A mechanistic model to study the thermal ecology of a southeastern pacific dominant intertidal mussel and implications for climate change

Developing mechanistic models to predict an organism's body temperature facilitates the study of physiological stresses caused by extreme climatic conditions the species might have faced in the past or making predictions about changes to come in the near future. Because the models combine empirical observation of different climatic variables with essential morphological attributes of the species, it is possible to examine specific aspects of predicted climatic changes. Here, we develop a model for the competitively dominant intertidal mussel Perumytilus purpuratus that estimates body temperature on the basis of meteorological and tidal data with an average difference (+/-SE) of 0.410 degrees +/- 0.0315 degrees C in comparison with a field-deployed temperature logger. Modeled body temperatures of P. purpuratus in central Chile regularly exceeded 30 degrees C in summer months, and values as high as 38 degrees C were found. These results suggest that the temperatures reached by mussels in the intertidal zone in central Chile are not sufficiently high to induce significant mortality on adults of this species; however, because body temperatures >40 degrees C can be lethal for this species, sublethal effects on physiological performance warrant further investigation. Body temperatures of mussels increased sigmoidally with increasing tidal height. Body temperatures of individuals from approximately 70% of the tidal range leveled off and did not increase any further with increasing tidal height. Finally, body size played an important role in determining body temperature. A hypothetical 5-cm-long mussel (only 1 cm longer than mussels found in nature) did reach potentially lethal body temperatures, suggesting that the biophysical environment may play a role in limiting the size of this small species.

Seasonal source-sink dynamics at the edge of a species' range

The roles of dispersal and population dynamics in determining species' range boundaries recently have received theoretical attention but little empirical work. Here we provide data on survival, reproduction, and movement for a Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana) population at a local distributional edge in central Massachusetts (USA). Most juvenile females that apparently exploited anthropogenic resources survived their first winter, whereas those using adjacent natural resources died of starvation. In spring, adult females recolonized natural areas. A life-table model suggests that a population exploiting anthropogenic resources may grow, acting as source to a geographically interlaced sink of opossums using only natural resources, and also providing emigrants for further range expansion to new human-dominated landscapes. In a geographical model, this source-sink dynamic is consistent with the local distribution identified through road-kill surveys. The Virginia opossum's exploitation of human resources likely ameliorates energetically restrictive winters and may explain both their local distribution and their northward expansion in unsuitable natural climatic regimes. Landscape heterogeneity, such as created by urbanization, may result in source-sink dynamics at highly localized scales. Differential fitness and individual dispersal movements within local populations are key to generating regional distributions, and thus species ranges, that exceed expectations.

From cells to coastlines: how can we use physiology to forecast the impacts of climate change?

The interdisciplinary fields of conservation physiology, macrophysiology, and mechanistic ecological forecasting have recently emerged as means of integrating detailed physiological responses to the broader questions of ecological and evolutionary responses to global climate change. Bridging the gap between large-scale records of weather and climate (as measured by remote sensing platforms, buoys and ground-based weather stations) and the physical world as experienced by organisms (niche-level measurements) requires a mechanistic understanding of how ;environmental signals' (parameters such as air, surface and water temperature, food availability, water flow) are translated into signals at the scale of the organism or cell (e.g. body temperature, food capture, hydrodynamic force, aerobic capacity). Predicting the impacts of how changing environments affect populations and ecosystems further mandates an understanding of how organisms ;filter' these signals via their physiological response (e.g. whether they respond to high or low frequencies, whether there is a time lag in response, etc.) and must be placed within the context of adult movement and the dispersal of larvae and gametes. Recent studies have shown that patterns of physiological stress in nature are far more complex in space and time than previously assumed and challenge the long-held paradigm that patterns of biogeographic distribution can be based on simple environmental gradients. An integrative, systems-based approach can provide an understanding of the roles of environmental and physiological variability in driving ecological responses and can offer considerable insight and predictive capacity to researchers, resource managers and policy makers involved in planning for the current and future effects of climate change.

A macroevolutionary perspective on species range limits

Understanding the factors that determine the geographic range limits of species is important for many questions in ecology, evolution and conservation biology. These limits arise from complex interactions among ecology and dispersal ability of species and the physical environment, but many of the underlying traits can be conserved among related species and clades. Thus, the range limits of species are likely to be influenced by their macroevolutionary history. Using palaeontological and biogeographic data for marine bivalves, we find that the range limits of genera are significantly related to their constituent species richness, but the effects of age are weak and inconsistent. In addition, we find a significant phylogenetic signal in the range limits at both genus and family levels, although the strength of this effect shows interoceanic variation. This phylogenetic conservatism of range limits gives rise to an evolutionary pattern where wide-ranging lineages have clusters of species within the biogeographic provinces, with a few extending across major boundaries.

The effect of sterilizing diseases on host abundance and distribution along environmental gradients

This study analyses the effect of host-specific pathogens on range restriction of their hosts across environmental gradients at population margins. Sterilizing diseases can limit host range by causing large reductions in population size in what would otherwise be the central area of a species range. Diseases showing frequency-dependent transmission can also pull back a population from its disease-free margin. A wide range of disease prevalence versus abundance patterns emerge which often differ from the classical expectation of increasing prevalence with increasing abundance. Surprisingly, very few empirical studies have investigated the dynamics of disease across environmental gradients or at range limits.

Hierarchical models facilitate spatial analysis of large data sets: a case study on invasive plant species in the northeastern United States

Many critical ecological issues require the analysis of large spatial point data sets - for example, modelling species distributions, abundance and spread from survey data. But modelling spatial relationships, especially in large point data sets, presents major computational challenges. We use a novel Bayesian hierarchical statistical approach, 'spatial predictive process' modelling, to predict the distribution of a major invasive plant species, Celastrus orbiculatus, in the northeastern USA. The model runs orders of magnitude faster than traditional geostatistical models on a large data set of c. 4000 points, and performs better than generalized linear models, generalized additive models and geographically weighted regression in cross-validation. We also use this approach to model simultaneously the distributions of a set of four major invasive species in a spatially explicit multivariate model. This multispecies analysis demonstrates that some pairs of species exhibit negative residual spatial covariation, suggesting potential competitive interaction or divergent responses to unmeasured factors.

Physiological tolerances account for range limits and abundance structure in an invasive slug

Despite the importance of understanding the mechanisms underlying range limits and abundance structure, few studies have sought to do so. Here we use a terrestrial slug species, Deroceras panormitanum, that has invaded a remote, largely predator-free, Southern Ocean island as a model system to do so. Across Marion Island, slug density does not conform to an abundant centre distribution. Rather, abundance structure is characterized by patches and gaps. These are associated with this desiccation-sensitive species' preference for biotic and drainage line habitats that share few characteristics except for their high humidity below the vegetation surface. The coastal range margin has a threshold form, rapidly rising from zero to high density. Slugs do not occur where soil-exchangeable Na values are higher than 3000 mg kg(-1), and in laboratory experiments, survival is high below this value but negligible above it. Upper elevation range margins are a function of the inability of this species to survive temperatures below an absolute limit of -6.4 degrees C, which is regularly exceeded at 200 m altitude, above which slug density declines to zero. However, the linear decline in density from the coastal peak is probably also a function of a decline in performance or time available for activity. This is probably associated with an altitudinal decline in mean annual soil temperature. These findings support previous predictions made regarding the form of density change when substrate or climatic factors set range limits.

Factors driving distribution limits in an annual plant community

Studies examining plant distribution patterns across environmental gradients have generally focused on perennial-dominated systems, and we know relatively little about the processes structuring annual communities. Here, the ecological factors determining local distribution patterns of five dominant annual species distributed across micro-topographic gradients in ephemeral California wetlands are examined. Over two growing seasons in three vernal pools, patterns of inundation and above-ground biomass were characterized across the microtopographic gradient, population boundaries for five dominant species were documented and a reciprocal transplant experiment and neighbor removal treatment were conducted to test the relative effects of within-pool elevation, competition and seed dispersal on plant performance. Despite large differences in inundation time between growing seasons, above-ground biomass and the elevation of population boundaries remained consistent. The predicted 'optimal' depth for each species shifted between years, but competition and recruitment limitation restricted species' abilities to track these conditions. The distributions of the focal taxa are primarily driven by differential responses to environmental conditions associated with different microtopographic positions along pool inundation gradients, and are reinforced by competition and dispersal constraints. The relative importance of competition, other environmental factors and dispersal patterns appear to contrast with results obtained in systems dominated by perennial plants.

The response of two butterfly species to climatic variation at the edge of their range and the implications for poleward range shifts

To predict changes in species' distributions due to climate change we must understand populations at the poleward edge of species' ranges. Ecologists generally expect range shifts under climate change caused by the expansion of edge populations as peripheral conditions increasingly resemble the range core. We tested whether peripheral populations of two contrasting butterflies, a small-bodied specialist (Erynnis propertius) and a large-bodied generalist (Papilio zelicaon), respond favorably to warmer conditions. Performance of populations related to climate was evaluated in seven peripheral populations spanning 1.2 degrees latitude (160 km) using: (1) population density surveys, an indirect measure of site suitability; and (2) organismal fitness in translocation experiments. There was evidence that population density increased with temperature for P. zelicaon whose population density declined with latitude in 1 of 3 sample years. On the other hand, E. propertius showed a positive relationship of population density with latitude, apparently unrelated to climate or measured habitat variables. Translocation experiments showed increased larval production at increased temperatures for both species, and in P. zelicaon, larval production also increased under drier conditions. These findings suggest that both species may increase at their range edge with warming but the preference for core-like conditions may be stronger in P. zelicaon. Further, populations of E. propertius at the range boundary may be large enough to act as sources of colonists for range expansions, but range expansion in this species may be prevented by a lack of available host plants further north. In total, the species appear to respond differently to climate and other factors that vary latitudinally, factors that will likely affect poleward expansion.

Larval tolerance, gene flow, and the northern geographic range limit of fiddler crabs

Despite growing interest in species' range shifts, little is known about the ecological and evolutionary factors that control geographic range boundaries. We investigated the processes that maintain the northern range limit of the mud fiddler crab (Uca pugnax) at North Scituate, Massachusetts, USA (42 degrees 14' N), located approximately 60 km north of Cape Cod. Larvae from five populations in Massachusetts were reared under controlled temperatures to test whether cooler water near the edge of this species' range inhibits planktonic development. Few larvae completed development at temperatures < 18 degrees C, a threshold that larvae would regularly encounter north of Cape Cod. Extensive salt marshes are present north of the current range boundary, and a transplant experiment using field enclosures confirmed that benthic fiddler crabs can survive severe winter conditions in this northern habitat. Taken with oceanographic data, these results suggest that the range boundary of fiddler crabs is likely maintained by the influence of cooler water temperatures on the larval phase. Analyses of mitochondrial DNA sequences from a neutral marker (COI) indicate high gene flow among U. pugnax populations in Massachusetts with little differentiation across Cape Cod. Consistent with predictions regarding the homogenizing influence of gene flow, larvae from source populations north and south of Cape Cod shared a common lower threshold for development. However, larvae produced near the range edge had faster growth rates than those from the south side of Cape Cod (typically reaching the final megalopal stage 1.0-5.5 d faster at 18 degrees C). Additional studies are needed to determine the mechanism underlying this counter-gradient variation in development time. We hypothesize that dispersal into cooler water on the north side of Cape Cod may act as a selection filter that sieves out slow developers from the larval pool by increasing planktonic duration and exposure to associated sources of mortality. Thus while high gene flow may prevent the evolution of greater cold tolerance in northern populations, recurrent selection on existing variation may lead to an unexpected concentration of favorable adaptations at the edge of the range. Such a pattern could permit edge populations to play a dominant and unrecognized role in future range extensions.

Potential effects of climate change on ecosystem and tree species distribution in British Columbia

A new ecosystem-based climate envelope modeling approach was applied to assess potential climate change impacts on forest communities and tree species. Four orthogonal canonical discriminant functions were used to describe the realized climate space for British Columbia's ecosystems and to model portions of the realized niche space for tree species under current and predicted future climates. This conceptually simple model is capable of predicting species ranges at high spatial resolutions far beyond the study area, including outlying populations and southern range limits for many species. We analyzed how the realized climate space of current ecosystems changes in extent, elevation, and spatial distribution under climate change scenarios and evaluated the implications for potential tree species habitat. Tree species with their northern range limit in British Columbia gain potential habitat at a pace of at least 100 km per decade, common hardwoods appear to be generally unaffected by climate change, and some of the most important conifer species in British Columbia are expected to lose a large portion of their suitable habitat. The extent of spatial redistribution of realized climate space for ecosystems is considerable, with currently important sub-boreal and montane climate regions rapidly disappearing. Local predictions of changes to tree species frequencies were generated as a basis for systematic surveys of biological response to climate change.

Sea ice retreat alters the biogeography of the Bering Sea continental shelf

Seasonal ice cover creates a pool of cold bottom water on the eastern Bering Sea continental shelf each winter. The southern edge of this cold pool, which defines the ecotone between arctic and subarctic communities, has retreated approximately 230 km northward since the early 1980s. Bottom trawl surveys of fish and invertebrates in the southeastern Bering Sea (1982-2006) show a coincident reorganization in community composition by latitude. Survey catches show community-wide northward distribution shifts, and the area formerly covered by the cold pool has seen increases in total biomass, species richness, and average trophic level as subarctic fauna have colonized newly favorable habitats. Warming climate has immediate management implications, as 57% of variability in commercial snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) catch is explained by winter sea ice extent. Several measures of community distribution and structure show linear relationships with bottom temperature, suggesting warming climate as the primary cause of changing biogeography. However, residual variability in distribution not explained by climate shows a strong temporal trend, suggesting that internal community dynamics also contribute to changing biogeography. Variability among taxa in their response to temperature was not explained by commercial status or life history traits, suggesting that species-specific responses to future warming will be difficult to predict.

Molecular characterization of Gonatocerus tuberculifemur (Ogloblin) (Hymenoptera: Mymaridae), a prospective Homalodisca vitripennis (Germar) (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) biological control candidate agent from South America: divergent clades

We genetically characterized the prospective South American egg parasitoid candidate, Gonatocerus tuberculifemur, of the glassy-winged sharpshooter (GWSS), Homalodisca vitripennis, for a neoclassical biological control program in California. Two molecular methods, inter-simple sequence repeat-polymerase chain reaction DNA fingerprinting and a phylogeographic approach inferred from the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I gene (COI), were utilized. Five geographic populations from South America were analyzed; in addition, a phylogenetic analysis was performed with several named and one unnamed Gonatocerus species using the COI gene. DNA fingerprinting demonstrated a fixed geographic banding pattern difference in the population from San Rafael, Mendoza Province, Argentina. The COI analysis uncovered haplotype or geographic structure in G. tuberculifemur. A neighbour-joining distance (NJ) and a single most parsimonious tree (MP) clustered the populations into two well-supported distinct clades with strong bootstrap values (97-99% and 92-99%, respectively) with populations from San Rafael clustering into clade 2 and the rest of the populations clustering into clade 1. No haplotype sharing was observed between individuals from the two clades. Phylogenetic analyses performed by NJ and MP methods with 15 Gonatocerus species confirmed species boundaries and again uncovered two distinct clades in G. tuberculifemur with strong bootstrap support (95-100% and 68-100%, respectively). However, the NJ tree supported the morphologically defined relationships better than the MP tree. The molecular evidence in the present study is suggestive of a species level divergence. Because G. tuberculifemur is under consideration as a potential biological control agent for GWSS in California, understanding cryptic variation in this species is critical.

The relationship between dispersal ability and geographic range size

There are a variety of proposed evolutionary and ecological explanations for why some species have more extensive geographical ranges than others. One of the most common explanations is variation in species' dispersal ability. However, the purported relationship between dispersal distance and range size has been subjected to few theoretical investigations, and empirical tests reach conflicting conclusions. We attempt to reconcile the equivocal results of previous studies by reviewing and synthesizing quantitative dispersal data, examining the relationship between average dispersal ability and range size for different spatial scales, regions and taxonomic groups. We use extensive data from marine taxa whose average dispersal varies by seven orders of magnitude. Our results suggest dispersal is not a general determinant of range size, but can play an important role in some circumstances. We also review the mechanistic theories proposed to explain a positive relationship between range size and dispersal and explore their underlying rationales and supporting or refuting evidence. Despite numerous studies assuming a priori that dispersal influences range size, this is the first comprehensive conceptual evaluation of these ideas. Overall, our results indicate that although dispersal can be an important process moderating species' distributions, increased attention should be paid to other processes responsible for range size variation.

The toad ahead: challenges of modelling the range and spread of an invasive species

An ability to predict the rate at which an organism spreads its range is of growing importance because the process of spread (during invasion by an exotic species) is almost identical to that occurring at the expanding range margins of a native species undergoing range shifts in response to climate change. Thus, the methods used for modelling range spread can also be employed to assess the distributional implications of climate change. Here we review the history of research on the spread of cane toads in Australia and use this case study to broadly examine the benefits and pitfalls of various modelling approaches. We show that the problems of estimating the current range, predicting the future range, and predicting the spread rate are interconnected and inform each other. Generally, we argue that correlative approaches to range-prediction are unsuitable when applied to invasive species and suggest that mechanistic methods are beginning to look promising (despite being more difficult to execute), although robust comparisons of correlative versus mechanistic predictions are lacking. Looking to the future, we argue that mechanistic models of range advance (drawing from both population ecology and environmental variation) are the approaches most likely to yield robust predictions. The complexity of these approaches coupled with the steady rise in computing power means that they have only recently become computationally tractable. Thus, we suggest that the field is only recently in a position to incorporate the complexity necessary to robustly model the rate at which species shift their range.

Coupling of dispersal and aggression facilitates the rapid range expansion of a passerine bird

Behaviors can facilitate colonization of a novel environment, but the mechanisms underlying this process are poorly understood. On one hand, behavioral flexibility allows for an immediate response of colonizers to novel environments, which is critical to population establishment and persistence. On the other hand, integrated sets of behaviors that display limited flexibility can enhance invasion success by coupling behaviors with dispersal strategies that are especially important during natural range expansions. Direct observations of colonization events are required to determine the mechanisms underlying changes in behavior associated with colonization, but such observations are rare. Here, we studied changes in aggression on a large temporal and spatial scale across populations of two sister taxa of bluebirds (Sialia) to show that coupling of aggression and dispersal strongly facilitated the range expansion of western bluebirds across the northwestern United States over the last 30 years. We show that biased dispersal of highly aggressive males to the invasion front allowed western bluebirds to displace less aggressive mountain bluebirds. However, once mountain bluebirds were excluded, aggression of western bluebirds decreased rapidly across consecutive generations in concordance with local selection on highly heritable aggressive behavior. Further, the observed adaptive microevolution of aggression was accelerated by the link between dispersal propensity and aggression. Importantly, our results show that behavioral changes among populations were not caused by behavioral flexibility and instead strongly implicate adaptive integration of dispersal and aggression in facilitating the ongoing and rapid reciprocal range change of these species in North America.

POLEWARD SHIFTS IN WINTER RANGES OF NORTH AMERICAN BIRDS

Climate change is thought to promote the poleward movement of geographic ranges; however, the spatial dynamics, mechanisms, and regional anthropogenic drivers associated with these trends have not been fully explored. We estimated changes in latitude of northern range boundaries, center of occurrence, and center of abundance for 254 species of winter avifauna in North America from 1975 to 2004. After accounting for the effect of range size and the location of the northern boundary, positive latitudinal trends were evident for the northern boundary (1.48 km/yr), center of occurrence (0.45 km/yr), and center of abundance (1.03 km/yr). The northern boundary, when examined across individual species, had the most variable trends (SD = 7.46 km/yr) relative to the center of occurrence (SD = 2.36 km/yr) and center of abundance (SD = 5.57 km/yr). Trends did not differ based on migratory status, but there was evidence that trends differed for species with ranges centered in the southern vs. northern portion of the study area. Species occurred more sporadically over time at northern range boundaries, and northern boundaries were associated with a concentration of colonization and extirpation events, with a greater prevalence of colonization events likely promoting poleward trends. Regional anthropogenic drivers explained approximately 8% of the trend for the northern boundary, 14% for the center of occurrence, and 18% for the center of abundance; however, these effects were localized in the northern portion of species' ranges and were associated with distributional changes within ranges, primarily abundance, producing patterns that mimicked poleward movements. We conclude that poleward distributional shifts represent the interaction between climate change and regional factors whose outcome is determined by the scale of the analysis and the biotic and abiotic features in the region, and how anthropogenic activities have impacted these features.

The macroecological contribution to global change solutions

Anthropogenic global changes threaten species and the ecosystem services upon which society depends. Effective solutions to this multifaceted crisis need scientific responses spanning disciplines and spatial scales. Macroecology develops broad-scale predictions of species' distributions and abundances, complementing the frequently local focus of global change biology. Macroecological discoveries rely particularly on correlative methods but have still proven effective in predicting global change impacts on species. However, global changes create pseudo-experimental opportunities to build stronger, mechanistic theories in macroecology that successfully predict multiple phenomena across spatial scales. Such macroecological perspectives will help address the biotic consequences of global change.

Global patterns of geographic range size in birds

Large-scale patterns of spatial variation in species geographic range size are central to many fundamental questions in macroecology and conservation biology. However, the global nature of these patterns has remained contentious, since previous studies have been geographically restricted and/or based on small taxonomic groups. Here, using a database on the breeding distributions of birds, we report the first (to our knowledge) global maps of variation in species range sizes for an entire taxonomic class. We show that range area does not follow a simple latitudinal pattern. Instead, the smallest range areas are attained on islands, in mountainous areas, and largely in the southern hemisphere. In contrast, bird species richness peaks around the equator, and towards higher latitudes. Despite these profoundly different latitudinal patterns, spatially explicit models reveal a weak tendency for areas with high species richness to house species with significantly smaller median range area. Taken together, these results show that for birds many spatial patterns in range size described in geographically restricted analyses do not reflect global rules. It remains to be discovered whether global patterns in geographic range size are best interpreted in terms of geographical variation in species assemblage packing, or in the rates of speciation, extinction, and dispersal that ultimately underlie biodiversity.

Out of the tropics: evolutionary dynamics of the latitudinal diversity gradient

The evolutionary dynamics underlying the latitudinal gradient in biodiversity have been controversial for over a century. Using a spatially explicit approach that incorporates not only origination and extinction but immigration, a global analysis of genera and subgenera of marine bivalves over the past 11 million years supports an "out of the tropics" model, in which taxa preferentially originate in the tropics and expand toward the poles without losing their tropical presence. The tropics are thus both a cradle and a museum of biodiversity, contrary to the conceptual dichotomy dominant since 1974; a tropical diversity crisis would thus have profound evolutionary effects at all latitudes.

Larval Ecology, Geographic Range, and Species Survivorship in Cretaceous Mollusks: Organismic versus Species‐Level Explanations

The observation that geographic range size in Cretaceous mollusks is correlated with species survivorship and is heritable at the species level has figured repeatedly in discussions of species selection over the past two decades. However, some authors have suggested that the relationship between mode of larval development and geographic range supports the reduction of this example to selection on organismic properties. Our reanalysis of Jablonski's work on heritability at the species level finds that geographic range is significantly heritable (using a randomization test) in both bivalves and gastropods, even within a single larval mode. Further, generalized linear models show that geographic range size is more important than larval mode in predicting extinction probability in both gastropods and bivalves. These results reaffirm the role and heritability of geographic range as a species-level property that can promote species selection; the model-based approach applied here may help to operationalize "screening off " and related approaches to evaluating hierarchical explanations in evolution.

Moving beyond assumptions to understand abundance distributions across the ranges of species

The assumption that species are most abundant in the center of their range and decline in abundance toward the range edges has a long history in the ecological literature. This assumption has driven basic and applied ecological and evolutionary hypotheses about the causes of species range limits and their responses to climate change. Here, we review recent studies that are taking biogeographical ecology beyond previously held assumptions by observing populations in the field across large parts of the species range. When these studies combine data on abundance, demographics, organismal physiology, genetics and physical factors, they provide a promising approach for teasing out ecological and evolutionary mechanisms of the patterns and processes underlying species ranges.

The distribution of positive and negative species interactions across environmental gradients on a dual-lattice model

There has been considerable recent interest in understanding the role of positive inter-specific interactions within ecology, and significant progress has been made both empirically and theoretically. Similarly, considerable progress has been made in improving our understanding of the mechanisms that limit species' ranges. In this contribution, we seek to understand the setting of species' borders when some species within the assemblage exhibit positive inter-specific interactions. We use a spatially explicit dual-lattice simulation model to explore the distribution of different interactions across environmental gradients. We first simulate community dynamics when there is either a gradient in reproductive rate or in mortality. We then consider what happens when gradients in reproduction and mortality run in parallel or perpendicular to one another. If the stress gradient impacts on reproductive potential, positive interactions are found where there is high abiotic stress. In this instance, the mutualists are able to tolerate an environment that the cheaters cannot. However, when the stress gradient influences mortality, we find that the mutualists occur as a stripe surrounded by cheaters both towards the better and the harsher ends of the gradient. Previous theory and most empirical evidence tend to indicate that net positive interactions are likely to occur in environments characterized by high abiotic stress. However, evidence from some stress gradients suggests that the distribution of positive and negative interactions can be more complex, with the most stressful environments being occupied by individuals engaging in negative rather than positive interactions. Our results provide a potential theoretical explanation for these recent field observation, and highlight the need for further theoretical and empirical work to better our understanding of how positive and negative interactions act to determine the limits to species' ranges.

Life at the edge: an experimental study of a poleward range boundary

Experimental studies of biogeographic processes are important, but rarely attempted because of the logistical challenges of research at large spatial scales. I used a series of large-scale transplant experiments to investigate the mechanisms controlling species abundance near a poleward range boundary. The intertidal limpet Collisella scabra experiences a 100-fold decline in abundance over the northernmost 300 km of its range. Temperature and food supply both strongly influenced individual survival, growth, and maturation. Regression analysis also revealed significant interactions among these conditions: the effect of one could not be predicted without knowing the level of the other. But these relationships could not explain geographic abundance patterns. Instead, individual limpets were highly successful at sites with relatively low abundance. These results suggest that, even though temperature is important to the success of individual C. scabra populations, the primary effect of warming temperatures under climate change may not be a shift in geographic distribution.

Diagnostic monitoring of a changing environment: an alternative UK perspective

Adaptive management of the marine environment requires an understanding of the complex interactions within it. Establishing levels of natural variability within and between marine ecosystems is a necessary prerequisite to this process and requires a monitoring programme which takes account of the issues of time, space and scale. In this paper, we argue that an ecosystem approach to managing the marine environment should take direct account of climate change indicators at a regional level if it is to cope with the unprecedented change expected as a result of human impacts on the earth climate system. We discuss the purpose of environmental monitoring and the importance of maintaining long-term time series. Recommendations are made on the use of these data in conjunction with modern extrapolation and integration tools (e.g. ecosystem models, remote sensing) to provide a diagnostic approach to the management of marine ecosystems, based on adaptive indicators and dynamic baselines.

Spatiotemporal dynamics in marginal populations

Population dynamics across a mortality gradient at an ecological margin are investigated using a novel modeling approach that allows direct comparison of stochastic spatially explicit simulation results with deterministic mean field models. The results show that demographic stochasticity has a large effect at population margins such that density profiles fall off more sharply than predicted by mean field models. Substantial spatial structure emerges at the margin, and spatial correlations (measured parallel to the margin) exhibit a sharp maximum in the tail of the density profile, indicating that spatial substructuring is greatest at an intermediate point across the ecological gradient. Such substructuring may have a substantial impact on Allee effects and evolutionary processes in marginal populations.