The residential history file: studying nursing home residents' long-term care histories(*)

Deintensification of Diabetes Medications among Veterans at the End of Life in VA Nursing Homes

OBJECTIVES

Many older adults with limited life expectancy and/or advanced dementia (LLE/AD) are potentially overtreated for diabetes and may benefit from deintensification. Our aim was to examine the incidence and predictors of diabetes medication deintensification in older Veterans with LLE/AD who were potentially overtreated at admission to Veterans Affairs (VA) nursing homes (community living centers [CLCs]).

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study using linked VA and Medicare clinical/administrative data and Minimum Data Set assessments.

SETTING

VA CLCs.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 6960 Veterans with diabetes and LLE/AD admitted to VA CLCs in fiscal years 2009 to 2015 with hemoglobin (Hb)A1c measured within 90 days of admission.

MEASUREMENTS

We evaluated treatment deintensification (discontinuation or dose reduction for a consecutive 7-day period) among residents who were potentially overtreated (HbA1c ≤7.5% and receiving hypoglycemic medications). Competing risk models assessed 90-day cumulative incidence of deintensification.

RESULTS

More than 40% (n = 3056) of Veteran CLC residents with diabetes were potentially overtreated. The cumulative incidence of deintensification at 90 days was 45.5%. Higher baseline HbA1c values were associated with a lower likelihood of deintensification (e.g., HbA1c 7.0-7.5% vs <6.0%; adjusted risk ratio [aRR] = .57; 95% confidence interval [CI] = .50-.66). Compared with non-sulfonylurea oral agents (e.g., metformin), other treatment regimens were more likely to be deintensified (aRR = 1.31-1.88), except for basal insulin (aRR = .59; 95% CI = .52-.66). The only resident factor associated with increased likelihood of deintensification was documented end-of-life status (aRR = 1.12; 95% CI = 1.01-1.25). Admission from home/assisted living (aRR = .85; 95% CI = .75-.96), obesity (aRR = .88; 95% CI = .78-.99), and peripheral vascular disease (aRR = .90; 95% CI = .81-.99) were associated with decreased likelihood of deintensification.

CONCLUSION

Deintensification of treatment regimens occurred in less than one-half of potentially overtreated Veterans and was more strongly associated with low HbA1c values and use of medications with high risk for hypoglycemia, rather than other resident characteristics. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:736-745, 2020.

Impact of deprescribing AChEIs on aggressive behaviors and antipsychotic prescribing

INTRODUCTION

We evaluated the impact of deprescribing acetylcholinesterase inhibitors (AChEIs) on aggressive behaviors and incident antipsychotic use in nursing home (NH) residents with severe dementia.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study of Medicare claims, Part D, Minimum Data Set for NH residents aged 65+ with severe dementia receiving AChEIs in 2016. Aggressive behaviors were measured using the aggressive behavior scale (ABS; n = 30,788). Incident antipsychotic prescriptions were evaluated among antipsychotic non-users (n = 25,188). Marginal structural models and inverse probability of treatment weights were used to evaluate associations of AChEI deprescribing and outcomes.

RESULTS

The severity of aggressive behaviors was low at baseline (mean ABS = 0.5) and was not associated with deprescribing AChEIs (0.002 increase in ABS, P = .90). Incident antipsychotic prescribing occurred in 5.1% of residents and was less likely with AChEI deprescribing (adjusted odds ratio = 0.52 [0.40-0.68], P <.001]).

DISCUSSION

Deprescribing AChEIs was not associated with a worsening of aggressive behaviors or incident antipsychotic prescriptions.

Incidence and Predictors of Aspirin Discontinuation in Older Adult Veteran Nursing Home Residents at End of Life

OBJECTIVES

Continuation of aspirin for secondary prevention in persons with limited life expectancy (LLE) is controversial. We sought to determine the incidence and predictors of aspirin discontinuation in veterans with LLE and/or advanced dementia (LLE/AD) who were taking aspirin for secondary prevention at nursing home admission, stratified by whether their limited prognosis (LP) was explicitly documented at admission.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study using linked Veterans Affairs (VA) and Medicare clinical/administrative data and Minimum Data Set resident assessments.

SETTING

All VA nursing homes (referred to as community living centers [CLCs]) in the United States.

PARTICIPANTS

Older (≥65 y) CLC residents with LLE/AD, admitted for 7 days or longer in fiscal years 2009 to 2015, who had a history of coronary artery disease and/or stroke/transient ischemic attack, and used aspirin within the first week of CLC admission (n = 13 844).

MEASUREMENTS

The primary dependent variable was aspirin discontinuation within the first 90 days after CLC admission, defined as 14 consecutive days of no aspirin receipt. Independent variables included an indicator for explicit documentation of LP, sociodemographics, environment of care characteristics, cardiovascular risk factors, bleeding risk factors, individual markers of poor prognosis (eg, cancer, weight loss), and facility characteristics. Fine and Gray subdistribution hazard models with death as a competing risk were used to assess predictors of discontinuation.

RESULTS

Cumulative incidence of aspirin discontinuation was 27% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 26%-28%) in the full sample, 34% (95% CI = 33%-36%) in residents with explicit documentation of LP, and 24% (95% CI = 23%-25%) in residents with no such documentation. The associations of independent variables with aspirin discontinuation differed in residents with vs without explicit LP documentation at admission.

CONCLUSION

Just over one-quarter of patients discontinued aspirin, possibly reflecting the unclear role of aspirin in end of life among prescribers. Future research should compare outcomes of aspirin deprescribing in this population. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:725-735, 2020.

Risk factors for pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations in long-term care facility residents: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Older adults who reside in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) are at particularly high risk for infection, morbidity and mortality from pneumonia and influenza (P&I) compared to individuals of younger age and those living outside institutional settings. The risk factors for P&I hospitalizations that are specific to LTCFs remain poorly understood. Our objective was to evaluate the incidence of P&I hospitalization and associated person- and facility-level factors among post-acute (short-stay) and long-term (long-stay) care residents residing in LTCFs from 2013 to 2015.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, we used Medicare administrative claims linked to Minimum Data Set and LTCF-level data to identify short-stay (< 100 days, index = admission date) and long-stay (100+ days, index = day 100) residents who were followed from the index date until the first of hospitalization, LTCF discharge, Medicare disenrollment, or death. We measured incidence rates (IRs) for P&I hospitalization per 100,000 person-days, and estimated associations with baseline demographics, geriatric syndromes, clinical characteristics, and medication use using Cox regression models.

RESULTS

We analyzed data from 1,118,054 short-stay and 593,443 long-stay residents. The crude 30-day IRs (95% CI) of hospitalizations with P&I in the principal position were 26.0 (25.4, 26.6) and 34.5 (33.6, 35.4) among short- and long-stay residents, respectively. The variables associated with P&I varied between short and long-stay residents, and common risk factors included: advanced age (85+ years), admission from an acute hospital, select cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, impaired functional status, and receipt of antibiotics or Beers criteria medications. Facility staffing and care quality measures were important risk factors among long-stay residents but not in short-stay residents.

CONCLUSIONS

Short-stay residents had lower crude 30- and 90-day incidence rates of P&I hospitalizations than long-stay LTCF residents. Differences in risk factors for P&I between short- and long-stay populations suggest the importance of considering distinct profiles of post-acute and long-term care residents in infection prevention and control strategies in LTCFs. These findings can help clinicians target interventions to subgroups of LTCF residents at highest P&I risk.

Association of Mandatory Bundled Payments for Joint Replacement With Use of Postacute Care Among Medicare Advantage Enrollees

Importance

In 2016, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services introduced mandatory bundled payments for knee and hip replacement surgical procedures among traditional Medicare (TM) patients in randomly selected areas. The association of bundled payments with outcomes among patients enrolled in Medicare Advantage (MA) is not known.

Objective

To determine the association of bundled payments for joint replacement surgical procedures with the use of postacute care (PAC) services among MA patients.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used difference-in-differences analysis to evaluate changes in PAC use among patients enrolled in Medicare who underwent joint replacement operations before and after the introduction of bundled payments (ie, from January 1, 2013, to September 30, 2017). A total of 75 metropolitan statistical areas were randomized to participate in the bundled payment program, with 121 areas serving as controls. Data were analyzed between September 15, 2018, and October 1, 2019.

Exposure

Bundled payments for hip and knee joint replacement operations, in which hospitals received a single payment to cover all costs associated with a joint replacement and associated care for the 90 days after surgery.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcomes were discharge to any institutional PAC setting and days spent in institutional PAC within 90 days after surgery. Secondary outcomes included discharge and days spent in specific PAC settings (ie, home health, skilled nursing facility, inpatient rehabilitation).

Results

Of 1 536 387 individuals who underwent hip and knee join replacement surgery, 493 977 (32.2%) were enrolled in MA (mean [SD] age, 73.3 [8.4] years; 386 699 [63.5%] women; 55 078 [6.4%] black) and 1 042 410 (67.8%) were enrolled in TM (mean [SD] age, 73.3 [8.7] years, 829 014 [65.2%] women; 82 890 [9.4%] black). Among MA patients, bundled payments were associated with a reduction of 1.5 (95% CI, 1.0-2.0) percentage points in discharge to an institutional PAC setting (P < .001) and an estimated reduction of 0.3 (95% CI, 0.2-0.5) days spent in an institutional PAC setting (P < .001), a 5.6% relative reduction. Among TM patients, bundled payments were associated with a reduction of 2.6 (95% CI, 2.2-2.9) percentage points in institutional PAC discharge (P < .001) and a reduction of 0.8 (95% CI, 0.7-0.9) days spent in an institutional PAC setting (P < .001), a 2.5% relative reduction. These changes were larger in hospitals with greater proportions of TM patients. In hospitals with low concentrations of MA patients, time spent in institutional PAC settings decreased by 0.9 days among TM patients and 0.8 days among MA patients; in hospitals with high MA concentrations, time spent in institutional PAC settings decreased by 0.6 days for TM patients and 0.2 days for MA patients.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, the first 18 months of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services bundled payment program for joint replacement surgery were associated with reductions in the use of institutional PAC among MA patients. Past evaluations of bundled payments that focused on TM patients may not have measured the full consequences of this alternative payment model.

Hospitalizations of nursing home residents at the end of life: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

End-of-life hospitalizations in nursing home residents are common, although they are often burdensome and potentially avoidable.

AIM

We aimed to summarize the existing evidence on end-of-life hospitalizations in nursing home residents.

DESIGN

Systematic review (PROSPERO registration number CRD42017072276).

DATA SOURCES

A systematic literature search was carried out in PubMed, CINAHL, and Scopus (date of search 9 April 2019). Studies were included if they reported proportions of in-hospital deaths or hospitalizations of nursing home residents in the last month of life. Two authors independently selected studies, extracted data, and assessed the quality of studies. Median with interquartile range was used to summarize proportions.

RESULTS

A total of 35 studies were identified, more than half of which were from the United States (n = 18). While 29 studies reported in-hospital deaths, 12 studies examined hospitalizations during the last month of life. The proportion of in-hospital deaths varied markedly between 5.9% and 77.1%, with an overall median of 22.6% (interquartile range: 16.3%-29.5%). The proportion of residents being hospitalized during the last month of life ranged from 25.5% to 69.7%, and the median was 33.2% (interquartile range: 30.8%-38.4%). Most studies investigating the influence of age found that younger age was associated with a higher likelihood of end-of-life hospitalization. Four studies assessed trends over time, showing heterogeneous findings.

CONCLUSION

There is a wide variation in end-of-life hospitalizations, even between studies from the same country. Overall, such hospitalizations are common among nursing home residents, which indicates that interventions tailored to each specific health care system are needed to improve end-of-life care.

Functional Status and Survival After Breast Cancer Surgery in Nursing Home Residents

Importance

Breast cancer surgery, the most common cancer operation performed in nursing home residents, is viewed as a low-risk surgical intervention. However, outcomes in patients with high functional dependence and limited life expectancy are poorly understood.

Objective

To assess the overall survival and functional status changes after breast cancer surgery in female nursing home residents stratified by surgery type.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This study used Medicare claims from 2003 to 2013 to identify 5969 US nursing home residents who underwent inpatient breast cancer surgery. Using the Minimum Data Set Activities of Daily Living (MDS-ADL) summary score, this study examined preoperative and postoperative function and identified patient characteristics associated with 30-day and 1-year mortality and 1-year functional decline after surgery. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of mortality. Fine-Gray competing risks regression was used to estimate unadjusted and adjusted subhazard ratios (sHRs) of functional decline. Statistical analysis was performed from January 2016 to January 2018.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Functional status and death.

Results

From 2003 to 2013, a total of 5969 female nursing home residents (mean [SD] age, 82 [7] years; 4960 [83.1%] white) underwent breast cancer surgery: 666 (11.2%) underwent lumpectomy, 1642 (27.5%) underwent mastectomy, and 3661 (61.3%) underwent lumpectomy or mastectomy with axillary lymph node dissection (ALND). The 30-day mortality rates were 8% after lumpectomy, 4% after mastectomy, and 2% after ALND. The 1-year mortality rates were 41% after lumpectomy, 30% after mastectomy, and 29% after ALND. Among 1-year survivors, the functional decline rate was 56% to 60%. The mean MDS-ADL score increased (signifying greater dependency) by 3 points for lumpectomy, 4 points for mastectomy, and 5 points for ALND. In multivariate analysis, poor baseline MDS-ADL score (range, 20-28) was associated with a higher 1-year mortality risk (lumpectomy: HR, 1.92 [95% CI, 1.23-3.00], P = .004; mastectomy: HR, 1.80 [95% CI, 1.35-2.39], P < .001; and ALND: HR, 1.77 [95% CI, 1.46-2.15], P < .001). After multivariate adjustment, preoperative decline in MDS-ADL score (lumpectomy: sHR, 1.59 [95% CI, 1.25-2.03], P < .001; mastectomy: sHR, 1.79; [95% CI, 1.52-2.09], P < .001; and ALND: sHR, 1.72 [95% CI, 1.56-1.91], P < .001) and cognitive impairment (lumpectomy: sHR, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.03-1.56], P = .02; mastectomy: sHR, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.09-1.45], P = .002; and ALND: sHR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.04-1.24], P = .003) were significantly associated with 1-year functional decline across all breast cancer surgery groups.

Conclusions and Relevance

For female nursing home residents who underwent breast cancer surgery, 30-day mortality and survival as well as 1-year mortality and functional decline were high. The 1-year survivors had significant functional decline. This study's findings suggest that this information should be incorporated into collaborative surgical decision-making processes.

Influenza Illness and Hip Fracture Hospitalizations in Nursing Home Residents: Are They Related?

Background

Influenza illness may impact the risk of falls and fractures during acute illness due to unsteady gait or dizziness. We evaluated the association between influenza and hip fracture hospitalizations in long-stay (LS) nursing home (NH) residents.

Methods

We analyzed weekly rates of hospitalization in a retrospective cohort of LS NH residents between January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2009. Hip fracture and influenza like illness (ILI) hospitalizations were identified with Medicare fee-for-service part A claims. We evaluated unadjusted and adjusted models with the primary exposures, weekly rate of influenza-like illness hospitalizations, city-wide mortality, and NH influenza vaccination rate and primary outcome of weekly rate of hip fracture hospitalizations.

Results

There were 9,237 incident hip fractures in the cohort. Facility wide ILI hospitalization rate was associated with the hip fracture hospitalization rate in the unadjusted (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08, 1.17) and adjusted (IRR 1.13, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.18) analyses. City-wide influenza mortality was associated with hip fracture hospitalization rates for the unadjusted (IRR 1.03, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.04), and adjusted (IRR 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.03) analyses. NH influenza vaccination rates were not associated with changes in hip fracture hospitalization rates.

Conclusions

ILI hospitalizations are associated with a 13% average increase in hip fracture hospitalization risk. In a given NH week, an increase in the number ILI hospitalizations from none to two was associated with an approximate one percentage point increase in hip fracture hospitalization risk. Strategies to reduce influenza risk should be investigated to reduce hip fracture risk.

Thirty-Year Trends in Nursing Home Composition and Quality Since the Passage of the Omnibus Reconciliation Act

OBJECTIVE

In 1987, the Omnibus Reconciliation Act (OBRA) called for a dramatic overhaul of the nursing home (NH) quality assurance system. This study examines trends in facility, resident, and quality characteristics since passage of that legislation.

METHODS

We conducted univariate analyses of national data on US NHs from 3 sources: (1) the 1985 National Nursing Home Survey (NNHS), (2) the 1992-2015 Online Survey Certification and Reporting (OSCAR) Data, and (3) LTCfocUS data for 2000-2015. We examined changes in NH characteristics, resident composition, and quality.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

US NH facilities and residents between 1985 and 2015.

RESULTS

The proportion of NHs that are Medicare and Medicaid certified, members of chains, and operating not-for-profit has increased over the past 30 years. There have also been reductions in occupancy and increases in the share of residents who are racial or ethnic minorities, admitted for post-acute care, in need of physical assistance with daily activities, primarily supported by Medicare, and diagnosed with a psychiatric condition such as schizophrenia. With regard to NH quality, direct care staffing levels have increased. The proportion of residents physically restrained has decreased dramatically, coupled with changes in inappropriate antipsychotic (chemical restraint) use.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Together with changes in the long-term care market, the NHs of today look very different from NHs 30 years ago. The 30th anniversary of OBRA provides a unique opportunity to reflect, consider what we have learned, and think about the future of this and other sectors of long-term care.

Long-term outcomes among octogenarians with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage

OBJECTIVE

Data evaluating the long-term outcomes, particularly with regard to treatment modality, of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) in octogenarians are limited. The primary objectives were to evaluate the disposition (living at home vs institutional settings) and analyze the predictors of long-term survival and return to home for octogenarians after SAH.

METHODS

Data pertaining to patients age 80 and older who underwent microsurgical clipping or endovascular coiling for SAH were extracted from 100% nationwide Medicare inpatient claims and linked with the Minimum Data Set (2008-2011). Patient disposition was tracked for 2 years after index SAH admission. Multivariable logistic regression stratified by aneurysm treatment modality, and adjusted for patient factors including SAH severity, evaluated predictors of return to home at 60 and 365 days after SAH. Survival 365 days after SAH was analyzed with a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

A total of 1298 cases were included in the analysis. One year following SAH, 56% of the patients had died or were in hospice care, 8% were in an institutional post-acute care setting, and 36% had returned home. Open microsurgical clipping (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54-0.81), male sex (aHR 0.70, 95% CI 0.57-0.87), tracheostomy (aHR 0.63, 95% CI 0.47-0.85), gastrostomy (aHR 0.60, 95% CI 0.48-0.76), and worse SAH severity (aHR 0.94, 95% CI 0.92-0.97) were associated with reduced likelihood of patients ever returning home. Older age (aHR 1.09, 95% CI 1.05-1.13), tracheostomy (aHR 2.06, 95% CI 1.46-2.91), gastrostomy (aHR 1.55, 95% CI 1.14-2.10), male sex (aHR 1.66, 95% CI 1.20-2.23), and worse SAH severity 1.51 (95% CI 1.04-2.18) were associated with reduced survival.

CONCLUSIONS

In this national analysis, 56% of octogenarians with SAH died, and 36% returned home within 1 year of SAH. Coil embolization predicted returning to home, which may suggest a benefit to endovascular treatment in this patient population.

Medical foster home is less costly than traditional nursing home care

OBJECTIVE

To compare the costs of Community Nursing Homes (CNHs) to Medical Foster Homes (MFHs) at Veteran Health Administration (VHA) Medical Centers that established MFH programs.

DATA SOURCES

Episode and costs data were derived from VA and Medicare files (inpatient, outpatient, emergency room, skilled nursing facility, dialysis, and hospice).

STUDY DESIGN

Propensity scores matched 354 MFH to 1693 CNH Veterans on demographics, clinical characteristics, health care utilization, and costs.

DATA EXTRACTION METHODS

Data were retrieved for years 2010-2011 from the VA Corporate Data Warehouse, VA Health Data Repository, and the VA MFH Program through the VA Informatics and Computing Infrastructure (VINCI).

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

After matching on unique characteristics of MFH Veterans, costs were $71.28 less per day alive compared to CNH care. Home-based and mental health care costs increased with savings largely attributable to avoiding CNH residential care. When average out-of-pocket payments by Veterans of $74/day are considered, MFH is at least cost neutral. Mortality was 12 percent higher among matched Veterans in CNHs.

CONCLUSIONS

MFHs may serve as alternatives to traditional CNH care that do not increase total costs with mortality benefits. Future work should examine the differences for functional disability subgroups.

Developing and Validating a Measure to Estimate Poverty in Medicare Administrative Data

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a measure that estimates individual level poverty in Medicare administrative data that can be used in studies of Medicare claims.

DATA SOURCES

A 2008 to 2013 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey linked to 2008 to 2013 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiary summary file and census data.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

We used the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey to define individual level poverty status and linked to Medicare administrative data (N=38,053). We partitioned data into a measure derivation dataset and a validation dataset. In the derivation data, we used a logistic model to regress poverty status on measures of dual eligible status, part D low-income subsidy, and demographic and administrative data, and modeled with and without linked census and nursing home data. Each beneficiary receives a predicted poverty score from the model. Performance was evaluated in derivation and validation data and compared with other measures used in the literature. We present a measure for income-only poverty as well as one for income and asset poverty.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A score (predicted probability of income poverty) >0.5 yielded 58% sensitivity, 94% specificity, and 84% positive predictive value in the derivation data; our score yielded very similar results in the validation data. The model's c-statistic was 0.84. Our poverty score performed better than Medicaid enrollment, high zip code poverty, and zip code median income. The income and asset version performed similarly well.

CONCLUSIONS

A poverty score can be calculated using Medicare administrative data for use as a continuous or binary measure. This measure can improve researchers' ability to identify poverty in Medicare administrative data.

Do report cards predict future quality? The case of skilled nursing facilities

Report cards on provider performance are intended to improve consumer decision-making and address information gaps in the market for quality. However, inadequate risk adjustment of report-card measures often biases comparisons across providers. We test whether going to a skilled nursing facility (SNF) with a higher star rating leads to better quality outcomes for a patient. We exploit variation over time in the distance from a patient's residential ZIP code to SNFs with different ratings to estimate the causal effect of admission to a higher-rated SNF on health care outcomes, including mortality. We found that patients who go to higher-rated SNFs achieved better outcomes, supporting the validity of the SNF report card ratings.

A New Data Resource to Examine Meals on Wheels Clients' Health Care Utilization and Costs

BACKGROUND

Access to social services (eg, nutrition) can impact older adults' health care utilization and health outcomes. However, data documenting the relationship between receiving services and objective measures of health care utilization remain limited.

OBJECTIVES

To link Meals on Wheels (MOW) program data to Medicare claims to enable examination of clients' health and health care utilization and to highlight the utility of this linked dataset.

RESEARCH DESIGN

Using probabilistic linking techniques, we matched MOW client data to Medicare enrollment and claims data. Descriptive information is presented on clients' health and health care utilization before and after receiving services from MOW.

SUBJECTS

In total, 29,501 clients were from 13 MOW programs.

MEASURES

Clients' demographics, chronic conditions, and hospitalization, emergency department (ED), and nursing home (NH) utilization rates.

RESULTS

We obtained a one-to-one link for 25,279 clients. Among these, 14,019 were Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries and met inclusion criteria for additional analyses. MOW clients had high rates of chronic conditions (eg, almost 90% of FFS clients were diagnosed with hypertension, compared with 63% of FFS beneficiaries in their communities). In the 6 months before receiving MOW services, 31.6% of clients were hospitalized, 24.9% were admitted to the ED and 13% received care in a NH. In the 6 months after receiving meals, 24.2% were hospitalized, 19.3% were admitted to the ED, and 9.5% received care in a NH.

CONCLUSIONS

Linking MOW data to Medicare claims has the potential to shed additional light on the relationships among social services, health status, health care use, and benefits to clients' well-being.

Factors Associated With Deprescribing Acetylcholinesterase Inhibitors in Older Nursing Home Residents With Severe Dementia

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE

Uncertainty regarding benefits and risks associated with acetylcholinesterase inhibitors (AChEIs) in severe dementia means providers do not know if and when to deprescribe. We sought to identify which patient-, provider-, and system-level characteristics are associated with AChEI discontinuation.

DESIGN

Analysis of 2015 to 2016 data from Medicare claims, Part D prescriptions, Minimum Data Set (MDS), version 3.0, Area Health Resource File, and Nursing Home Compare. Cox-proportional hazards models with time-varying covariates were used to identify patient-, provider-, and system-level factors associated with AChEI discontinuation (30-day or more gap in supply).

SETTING

US Medicare-certified nursing homes (NHs).

PARTICIPANTS

Nonskilled NH residents, aged 65 years and older, with severe dementia receiving AChEIs within the first 14 days of an MDS assessment in 2016 (n = 37 106).

RESULTS

The sample was primarily white (78.7%), female (75.5%), and aged 80 years or older (77.4%). The most commonly prescribed AChEIs were donepezil (77.8%), followed by transdermal rivastigmine (14.6%). The cumulative incidence of AChEI discontinuation was 29.7% at the end of follow-up (330 days), with mean follow-up times of 194 days for continuous users of AChEIs and 105 days for those who discontinued. Factors associated with increased likelihood of discontinuation were new admission, older age, difficulty being understood, aggressive behavior, poor appetite, weight loss, mechanically altered diet, limited prognosis designation, hospitalization in 90 days prior, and northeastern region. Factors associated with decreased likelihood of discontinuation included memantine use, use of strong anticholinergics, polypharmacy, rurality, and primary care prescriber vs geriatric specialist.

CONCLUSION

Among NH residents with severe dementia being treated with AChEIs, the cumulative incidence of AChEI discontinuation was just under 30% at 1 year of follow-up. Our findings provide insight into potential drivers of deprescribing AChEIs, identify system-level barriers to deprescribing, and help to inform covariates that are needed to address potential confounding in studies evaluating the potential risks and benefits associated with deprescribing. J Am Geriatr Soc 67:1871-1879, 2019.

Long-term Care Facility Variation in the Incidence of Pneumonia and Influenza

Background

Pneumonia and influenza (P&I) increase morbidity and mortality among older adults, especially those residing in long-term care facilities (LTCFs). Facility-level characteristics may affect the risk of P&I beyond resident-level risk factors. However, the relationship between facility characteristics and P&I is poorly understood. To address this, we identified potentially modifiable facility-level characteristics that influence the incidence of P&I across LTCFs.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using 2013-2015 Medicare claims linked to Minimum Data Set and LTCF-level data. Short-stay (<100 days) and long-stay (100+ days) LTCF residents were followed for the first occurrence of hospitalization, LTCF discharge, Medicare disenrollment, or death. We calculated LTCF risk-standardized incidence rates (RSIRs) per 100 person-years for P&I hospitalizations by adjusting for over 30 resident-level demographic and clinical covariates using hierarchical logistic regression.

Results

We included 1 767 241 short-stay (13 683 LTCFs) and 922 863 long-stay residents (14 495 LTCFs). LTCFs with lower RSIRs had more licensed independent practitioners (nurse practitioners or physician assistants) among short-stay (44.9% vs 41.6%, P < .001) and long-stay residents (47.4% vs 37.9%, P < .001), higher registered nurse hours/resident/day among short-stay and long-stay residents (mean [SD], 0.5 [0.7] vs 0.4 [0.4], P < .001), and fewer residents for whom antipsychotics were prescribed among short-stay (21.4% [11.6%] vs 23.6% [13.2%], P < .001) and long-stay residents (22.2% [14.3%] vs 25.5% [15.0%], P < .001).

Conclusions

LTCF characteristics may play an important role in preventing P&I hospitalizations. Hiring more registered nurses and licensed independent practitioners, increasing staffing hours, and higher-quality care practices may be modifiable means of reducing P&I in LTCFs.

Transitional Care Outcomes in Veterans Receiving Post-Acute Care in a Skilled Nursing Facility

BACKGROUND

As the veteran population ages, more veterans are receiving post-acute care in skilled nursing facilities (SNFs). However, the outcomes of these transitions across Veterans Affairs (VA) and non-VA settings are unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To measure adverse outcomes in veterans transitioning from hospital to SNF in VA and non-VA hospitals and SNFs.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study using the 2012 to 2014 Residential History File, which concatenates VA, Medicare, and Medicaid data into longitudinal episodes of care for veterans.

SETTING

VA and non-VA hospitals and SNFs in four categories: non-VA SNFs, VA-contracted SNFs, VA Community Living Centers (CLCs), and State Veterans Homes.

PARTICIPANTS

Veterans, aged 65 years or older, who were acutely hospitalized and discharged to an SNF; one transition was randomly selected per patient.

MEASUREMENTS

Adverse "transitional care" outcomes were a composite of hospital readmission, emergency department visit, or mortality within 7 days of hospital discharge.

RESULTS

More than four in five veteran transitions (81.7%) occurred entirely outside the VA system. The overall 7-day outcome rate was 10.7% in the 388 339 veterans included. Adverse outcomes were lowest in VA hospital-CLC transitions (7.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.1%-7.8%) and highest in non-VA hospital to VA-contracted nursing home transitions (17.5%; 95% CI = 16.0%-18.9%) in unadjusted analysis. In multivariate analyses adjusted for patient and hospital characteristics, VA hospitals had lower adverse outcome rates than non-VA hospitals (odds ratio [OR] = 0.80; 95% CI = 0.74-0.86). In comparison to VA hospital-VA CLC transitions, non-VA hospital to VA-contracted nursing homes (OR = 2.51; 95% CI = 2.09-3.02) and non-VA hospital to CLC (OR = 2.25; 95% CI = 1.81-2.79) had the highest overall adverse outcome rates.

CONCLUSION

Most veteran hospital-SNF transitions occur outside the VA, although adverse transitional care outcomes are lowest inside the VA. These findings raise important questions about the VA's role as a provider and payer of post-acute care in SNFs. J Am Geriatr Soc 67:1820-1826, 2019.

Fracture Risk Assessment in Long-term Care (FRAiL): Development and Validation of a Prediction Model

Background

Strategies used to predict fracture in community-dwellers may not be useful in the nursing home (NH). Our objective was to develop and validate a model (Fracture Risk Assessment in Long-term Care [FRAiL]) to predict the 2-year risk of hip fracture in NH residents using readily available clinical characteristics.

Methods

The derivation cohort consisted of 419,668 residents between May 1, 2007 and April 30, 2008 in fee-for service Medicare. Hip fractures were identified using Part A diagnostic codes. Resident characteristics were obtained using the Minimum Data Set and Part D claims. Multivariable competing risk regression was used to model 2-year risk of hip fracture. We validated the model in a remaining 1/3 sample (n = 209,834) and in a separate cohort in 2011 (n = 858,636).

Results

Mean age was 84 years (range 65-113 years) and 74.5% were female. During 1.8 years mean follow-up, 14,553 residents (3.5%) experienced a hip fracture. Fifteen characteristics in the final model were associated with an increased risk of hip fracture including dementia severity, ability to transfer and walk independently, prior falls, wandering, and diabetes. In the derivation sample, the concordance index was 0.69 in men and 0.71 in women. Calibration was excellent. Results were similar in the internal and external validation samples.

Conclusions

The FRAiL model was developed specifically to identify NH residents at greatest risk for hip fracture, and it identifies a different pattern of risk factors compared with community models. This practical model could be used to screen NH residents for fracture risk and to target intervention strategies.

Incidence of Lower-Extremity Fractures in US Nursing Homes

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Limited studies suggest lower-extremity (LE) fractures are morbid events for nursing home (NH) residents. Our objective was to conduct a nationwide study comparing the incidence and resident characteristics associated with hip (proximal femur) vs nonhip LE (femoral shaft and tibia-fibula) fractures in the NH.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

US NHs.

PARTICIPANTS

We included all long-stay residents, aged 65 years or older, enrolled in Medicare from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2009 (N = 1 257 279). Residents were followed from long-stay qualification until the first event of LE fracture, death, or end of follow-up (2 years).

MEASUREMENTS

Fractures were classified using Medicare diagnostic and procedural codes. Function, cognition, and medical status were obtained from the Minimum Data Set prior to long-stay qualification. Incidence rates (IRs) were calculated as the total number of fractures divided by person-years.

RESULTS

During 42 800 person-years of follow-up, 52 177 residents had an LE fracture (43 695 hip, 6001 femoral shaft, 2481 tibia-fibula). The unadjusted IRs of LE fractures were 1.32/1000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.27-1.38) for tibia-fibula, 3.20/1000 person-years (95% CI = 3.12-3.29) for femoral shaft, and 23.32/1000 person-years (95% CI = 23.11-23.54) for hip. As compared with hip fracture residents, non-hip LE fracture residents were more likely to be immobile (58.1% vs 18.4%), to be dependent in all activities of daily living (31.6% vs 10.8%), to be transferred mechanically (20.5% vs 4.4%), to be overweight (mean body mass index = 26.6 vs 24.0 kg/m² ), and to have diabetes (34.8% vs 25.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings that non-hip LE fractures often occur in severely functionally impaired residents suggest these fractures may have a different mechanism of injury than hip fractures. The resident differences in our study highlight the need for distinct prevention strategies for hip and non-hip LE fractures.

Days Spent at Home in the Last Six Months of Life Among Community-Living Older Persons

BACKGROUND

Days spent at home has recently been identified as an important patient-centered outcome; yet, relatively little is known about time spent at home at the end of life among community-living older persons.

METHODS

The analytic sample included 457 decedents from an ongoing cohort study of 754 community-living persons, aged ≥70 years. Days spent at home were calculated as 180 days minus the number of days in a hospital, nursing home, or hospice facility. The condition leading to death was determined from death certificates and comprehensive assessments.

RESULTS

The median number of days at home was 159 (interquartile range 125-174). There were 138 (30.2%) decedents at home during the entire 6-month period, while 163 (35.7%) were at home for fewer than 150 days. Days at home did not differ significantly by age (P = .922), sex (P = .238), or race/ethnicity (P = .199), but did differ according to the condition leading to death (P = .001), with the lowest value observed for organ failure (150 [106.5-168.5]), highest values for sudden death (177 [172-179]) and cancer (167 [140-174]), and intermediate values for advanced dementia (164 [118-174]), frailty (160.5 [130-174]), and other conditions (153 [118-175]).

CONCLUSIONS

Among community-living older persons, days spent at home in the last 6 months of life do not differ by age, sex, or race/ethnicity, but are significantly lower for persons dying from organ failure. Additional efforts may be warranted to optimize time spent at home at the end of life, especially among older persons dying from organ failure.

Health Care Utilization and Cost Outcomes of a Comprehensive Dementia Care Program for Medicare Beneficiaries

IMPORTANCE

An estimated 4 to 5 million Americans have Alzheimer disease or another dementia.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the health care utilization and cost outcomes of a comprehensive dementia care program for Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this case-control study, we used a quasiexperimental design to compare health care utilization and costs for 1083 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries enrolled in the University of California Los Angeles Health System Alzheimer and Dementia Care program between July 1, 2012, and December 31, 2015, with those of 2166 similar patients with dementia not participating in the program. Patients in the comparison cohort were selected using the zip code of residence as a sampling frame and matched with propensity scores, which included demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and prior-year health care utilization. We used Medicare claims data to compare utilization and cost outcomes for the 2 groups.

INTERVENTIONS

Patients in the dementia care program were comanaged by nurse practitioners and physicians, and the program consisted of structured needs assessments of patients and their caregivers, creation and implementation of individualized dementia care plans with input from primary care physicians, monitoring and revising care plans, referral to community organizations for dementia-related services and support, and access to a clinician for assistance and advice 24 hours per day, 7 days per week.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Admissions to long-term care facilities; average difference-in-differences per quarter over the 3-year intervention period for all-cause hospitalization, emergency department visits, 30-day hospital readmissions, and total Medicare Parts A and B costs of care. Program costs were included in the cost estimates.

RESULTS

Program participants (n = 382 men, n = 701 women; mean [SD] age, 82.10 [7.90] years; age range 54-101 years) were less likely to be admitted to a long-term care facility (hazard ratio, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.59-0.61) than those not participating in the dementia care program (n = 759 men, n = 1407 women; mean [SD] age, 82.42 [8.50] years; age range, 34-103 years). There were no differences between groups in terms of hospitalizations, emergency department visits, or 30-day readmissions. The total cost of care to Medicare, excluding program costs, was $601 less per patient per quarter (95% CI, -$1198 to -$5). After accounting for the estimated program costs of $317 per patient per quarter, the program was cost neutral for Medicare, with an estimated net cost of -$284 (95% CI, -$881 to $312) per program participant per quarter.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Comprehensive dementia care may reduce the number of admissions to long-term care facilities, and depending on program costs, may be cost neutral or cost saving. Wider implementation of such programs may help people with dementia stay in their communities.

Use of Hospital-Based Rehabilitation Services and Hospital Readmission Following Ischemic Stroke in the United States

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between hospital-based rehabilitation service use and all-cause 30-day hospital readmission among patients with ischemic stroke.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of inpatient Medicare claims data using Standard Analytical Files.

SETTING

Acute hospitals across the United States.

PARTICIPANTS

From nationwide data, Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries (N=88,826) aged 66 years or older hospitalized for ischemic stroke between January to November 2010.

INTERVENTIONS

Hospital-based rehabilitation services were quantified using Medicare inpatient claims revenue center codes for evaluation (occupational therapy [OT] and physical therapy [PT]), as well as the number of therapy units delivered. Therapy minutes for both OT and PT services were categorized into none, low, medium, and high.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

All-cause 30-day hospital readmission. A generalized linear mixed model was used to examine the effect of hospital-based rehabilitation services on 30-day hospital readmission, after adjusting for patient and hospital characteristics.

RESULTS

In fully adjusted models, compared to patients who received no PT, we observed a monotonic inverse relationship between the amount of PT and hospital readmission. For low PT (30 minutes), the odds ratio (OR) was 0.90 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.83-0.96). For medium PT (>30 to ≤75 minutes), the OR was 0.89 (95% CI, 0.82-0.95). For high PT (>75 minutes), the OR was 0.86 (95% CI, 0.80-0.93).

CONCLUSION

Hospital-based PT services were associated with lower risk of 30-day hospital readmission in patients with ischemic stroke.

Outcomes of "diabetes-friendly" vs "diabetes-unfriendly" β-blockers in older nursing home residents with diabetes after acute myocardial infarction

AIMS

To assess whether nursing home (NH) residents with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) preferentially received "T2D-friendly" (vs "T2D-unfriendly") β-blockers after acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and to evaluate the comparative effects of the two groups of β-blockers.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This new-user retrospective cohort study of NH residents with AMI from May 2007 to March 2010 used national data from the Minimum Data Set and Medicare system. T2D-friendly β-blockers were those hypothesized to increase peripheral glucose uptake through vasodilation: carvedilol, nebivolol and labetalol. Primary outcomes were hospitalizations for hypoglycaemia and hyperglycaemia in the 90 days after AMI. Secondary outcomes were functional decline, death, all-cause re-hospitalization and fracture hospitalization. We compared outcomes using binomial and multinomial logistic regression models after propensity score matching.

RESULTS

Of 2855 NH residents with T2D, 29% initiated a T2D-friendly β-blocker vs 24% of 6098 without T2D (P < 0.001). For primary outcomes among residents with T2D, T2D-friendly vs T2D-unfriendly β-blockers were associated with a reduction in hospitalized hyperglycaemia (odds ratio [OR] 0.45, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.21-0.97), but unassociated with hypoglycaemia (OR 2.05, 95% CI 0.82-5.10). For secondary outcomes, T2D-friendly β-blockers were associated with a greater rate of re-hospitalization (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.01-1.57), but not death (OR 1.06, 95% CI 0.85-1.32), functional decline (OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.70-1.19), or fracture (OR 1.69, 95% CI 0.40-7.08).

CONCLUSIONS

In older NH residents with T2D, T2D-friendly β-blocker use was associated with a lower rate of hospitalization for hyperglycaemia, but a higher rate of all-cause re-hospitalization.

The Effects of Medicare Advantage Contract Concentration on Patients' Nursing Home Outcomes

OBJECTIVE

The Medicare Modernization Act of 2004 allowed Medicare Advantage (MA) contracts to form provider networks in order to concentrate their patients among preferred providers. We focus on the skilled nursing facility (SNF) industry to assess patients' health when treating SNFs concentrate more patients from the same MA contract.

DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING

We use Medicare Beneficiary Summary File and Health, HEDIS, and the Minimum Data Set for patient attributes and OSCAR, LTCfocus.org, and Nursing Home Compare for SNF attributes. We include 1,069,436 MA enrollees newly admitted to SNF between 2012 and 2014.

STUDY DESIGN

Using a MA contract fixed-effect model, we examine the effect of prevalence of a patient's MA contract in the treating SNF on patient's health outcomes including 180-day survival, 30-day hospital readmission, 30-day home discharge, and nursing home length of stay. We use an Instrumental Variable (IV), the expected share of admissions in a SNF from patient's MA contract calculated using a McFadden choice model.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We find no relationship between SNF contract concentration and patients' outcomes after applying the IV.

CONCLUSIONS

While MA plans appear to steer patients to specific SNFs, we do not observe significant returns to patient outcomes related to concentration.

Examining Black-White Disparities Among Medicare Beneficiaries in Assisted Living Settings in 2014

OBJECTIVE

Assisted living (AL) provides housing and personal care to residents who need assistance with daily activities. Few studies have examined black-white disparities in larger (25 + beds) ALs; therefore, little is known about black residents, their prior residential settings, and how they compare to whites in AL. We examined racial differences among a national cohort of AL residents and how the racial variation among AL Medicare Fee-For-Service (FFS) beneficiaries compared to differences among community-dwelling and nursing home cohorts.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

We included (1) a prevalence sample of 442,018 white and black Medicare beneficiaries residing in large AL settings, (2) an incidence sample of new residents (n = 94,741), and (3) 10% random samples of Medicare FFS community-dwelling and nursing home beneficiaries in 2014.

MEASURES

The Medicare Master Summary Beneficiary File was used to identify AL residents and provided demographic, entitlement, chronic condition, and health care utilization information. We used the American Community Survey and prior ZIP code tabulation areas of residents to examine differences in prior neighborhoods. Medicare claims and the Minimum Data Set yielded samples of Medicare FFS community-dwelling older adults and nursing home residents.

RESULTS

Blacks were disproportionately represented in AL, younger, more likely to be Medicaid eligible, had higher levels of acuity, and more often lived in ALs with fewer whites and more duals. New black residents entered AL with higher rates of acute care hospitalizations and skilled nursing facility utilization. Across the 3 cohorts, blacks had higher rates of dual-eligibility.

CONCLUSIONS

Black-white differences observed among AL residents indicate a need for future work to examine how disparities manifest in differences in care received and residents' outcomes, as well as the pathways to AL. More research is needed to understand the implications of inequities in AL as they relate to quality and experiences of residents.

Clostridium difficile infection increases acute and chronic morbidity and mortality

OBJECTIVE

In this study, we aimed to quantify short- and long-term outcomes of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) in the elderly, including all-cause mortality, transfer to a facility, and hospitalizations.

DESIGN

Retrospective study using 2011 Medicare claims data, including all elderly persons coded for CDI and a sample of uninfected persons. Analysis of propensity score-matched pairs and the entire population stratified by the propensity score was used to determine the risk of all-cause mortality, new transfer to a long-term care facility (LTCF), and short-term skilled nursing facility (SNF), and subsequent hospitalizations within 30, 90, and 365 days.

RESULTS

The claims records of 174,903 patients coded for CDI were compared with those of 1,318,538 control patients. CDI was associated with increased risk of death (odds ratio [OR], 1.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.74-1.81; attributable mortality, 10.9%), new LTCF transfer (OR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.67-1.82), and new SNF transfer (OR, 2.52; 95% CI, 2.46-2.58) within 30 days in matched-pairs analyses. In a stratified analysis, CDI was associated with greatest risk of 30-day all-cause mortality in persons with lowest baseline probability of CDI (hazard ratio [HR], 3.04; 95% CI, 2.83-3.26); the risk progressively decreased as the baseline probability of CDI increased. CDI was also associated with increased risk of subsequent 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

CDI was associated with increased risk of short- and long-term adverse outcomes, including transfer to short- and long-term care facilities, hospitalization, and all-cause mortality. The magnitude of mortality risk varied depending on baseline probability of CDI, suggesting that even lower-risk patients may benefit from interventions to prevent CDI.

A Methodology to Identify a Cohort of Medicare Beneficiaries Residing in Large Assisted Living Facilities Using Administrative Data

BACKGROUND

Assisted living is a popular option for housing and long-term care.

OBJECTIVE

To develop and test a methodology to identify Medicare beneficiaries residing in assisted living facilities (ALFs).

RESEARCH DESIGN

We compiled a finder file of 9-digit ZIP codes representing large ALFs (25+ beds) by matching Outcome and Assessment Information Set (OASIS) assessments and Medicare Part B Claims to the Medicare enrollment records and addresses of 11,751 ALFs. Using this finder file, we identified 738,567 beneficiaries residing in validated ALF ZIP codes in 2007-2009. We compared characteristics of this cohort to those of ALF residents in the National Survey of Residential Care Facilities (n=3009), a sample of community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries (n=33,025,690), and long-stay nursing home residents (n=1,287,572).

DATA SOURCES

A national list of licensed ALFs, Medicare enrollment records, and administrative health care databases.

RESULTS

The ALF cohort we identified had good construct validity based on their demographic characteristics, health, and health care utilization when compared with ALF residents in the National Survey of Residential Care Facilities, community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries, and long-stay nursing home residents.

CONCLUSIONS

Our finder file of 9-digit ZIP codes enables identification of ALF residents using administrative data. This approach will allow researchers to examine questions related to the quality of care, health care utilization, and outcomes of residents in this growing sector of long-term care.

Higher Level of Obesity Is Associated with Intensive Personal Care Assistance in the Nursing Home

OBJECTIVES

To examine whether higher obesity level was associated with extensive staffing assistance (from 2 or more persons) for completing activities of daily living (ADL) among older nursing home residents.

DESIGN

Retrospective cross-sectional study.

SETTING

US government-certified nursing homes.

PARTICIPANTS

Medicare beneficiaries residing in a nursing home on April 1, 2015. Exclusion criteria were age less than 65 years and body mass index (BMI) below 18.5 (underweight).

MEASURES

Residents were divided by obesity level according to established BMI cutoffs, as follows: nonobese (BMI = 18.5-29.9) or mild (BMI = 30.0-34.9), moderate (BMI = 35.0-39.9), or severe (BMI ≥40) obesity. Level of staffing assistance for completing each of 10 ADL (bed mobility, transfer, walking in room, walking in corridor, on- and off-unit locomotion, dressing, eating, toileting, and personal hygiene) was dichotomized as below 2 and 2 or more. Robust Poisson regression was used to test whether obesity conferred excess risk for needing 2 or more staff to complete each ADL. Adjusted models included individual-level covariates and nursing home fixed effects.

RESULTS

A total of 1,063,383 nursing home residents were identified, including 309,263 (29.0%) with obesity. Adjusted relative risks (95% confidence intervals) for 2-person assistance with bed mobility associated with mild, moderate, and severe obesity were 1.17 (1.15, 1.18), 1.28 (1.25, 1.31), and 1.40 (1.36, 1.43), respectively. Adjusted relative risks for 2-person assistance with transferring associated with mild, moderate, and severe obesity were 1.15 (1.13, 1.17), 1.24 (1.22, 1.27), and 1.36 (1.33, 1.39), respectively. Obesity was associated with 2-person assistance for all other ADL except for eating.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher obesity level was significantly associated with assistance from 2 or more staff for completing 9 of 10 ADL. Given increasing obesity rates in nursing homes, payment mechanisms that do not adjust for obesity or comprehensively account for excess ADL assistance may need revision to prevent adverse impacts on the long-term care system.

Adaptation and Initial Validation of Minimum Data Set (MDS) Mortality Risk Index to MDS Version 3.0

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the predictive validity of an adapted version of the Minimum Data Set (MDS) Mortality Risk Index-Revised (MMRI-R) based on MDS version 3.0 assessment items (MMRI-v3) and to compare the predictive validity of the MMRI-v3 with that of a single MDS item indicating limited life expectancy (LLE).

DESIGN

Retrospective, cross-sectional study of MDS assessments. Other data sources included the Veterans Affairs (VA) Residential History File and Vital Status File.

SETTING

VA nursing homes (NHs).

PARTICIPANTS

Veterans aged 65 and older newly admitted to VA NHs between July 1, 2012, and September 30, 2015.

MEASUREMENTS

The dependent variable was death within 6 months of admission date. Independent variables included MDS items used to calculate MMRI-v3 scores (renal failure, chronic heart failure, sex, age, dehydration, cancer, unintentional weight loss, shortness of breath, activity of daily living scale, poor appetite, acute change in mental status) and the MDS item indicating LLE.

RESULTS

The predictive ability of the MMRI-v3 for 6-month mortality (c-statistic 0.81) is as good as that of the original MMRI-R (c-statistic 0.76). Scores generated using the MMRI-v3 had greater predictive ability than that of the single MDS indicator for LLE (c-statistic 0.76); using the 2 together resulted in greater predictive ability (c-statistic 0.86).

CONCLUSION

The MMRI-v3 is a useful tool in research and clinical practice that accurately predicts 6-month mortality in veterans residing in Veterans Affairs NHs. Identification of residents with LLE has great utility for studying palliative care interventions and may be helpful in guiding allocation of these services in clinical practice. J Am Geriatr Soc 66:2353-2359, 2018.

Differences Between Skilled Nursing Facilities in Risk of Subsequent Long-Term Care Placement

OBJECTIVES

To determine how the risk of subsequent long-term care (LTC) placement varies between skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) and the SNF characteristics associated with this risk.

DESIGN

Population-based national cohort study with participants nested in SNFs and hospitals in a cross-classified multilevel model.

SETTING

SNFs (N=6,680).

PARTICIPANTS

Fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries (N=552,414) discharged from a hospital to a SNF in 2013.

MEASUREMENTS

Participant characteristics from Medicare data and the Minimum Data Set. SNF characteristics from Medicare and Nursing Home Compare. Outcome was a stay of 90 days or longer in a LTC nursing home within 6 months of SNF admission.

RESULTS

Within 6 months of SNF admission, 10.4% of participants resided in LTC. After adjustments for participant characteristics, the SNF where a participant received care explained 7.9% of the variance in risk of LTC, whereas the prior hospital explained 1.0%. Individuals in SNFs with excellent quality ratings had 22% lower odds of transitioning to LTC than those in SNFs with poor ratings (odds ratio=0.78, 95% confidence interval=0.74-0.84). Variation between SNFs and associations with quality markers were greater in sensitivity analyses limited to individuals least likely to require LTC. Results were essentially the same in a number of other sensitivity analyses designed to reduce potential confounding.

CONCLUSION

Risk of subsequent LTC placement, an important and negatively viewed outcome for older adults, varies substantially between SNFs. Individuals in higher-quality SNFs are at lower risk.

Long-Term Nursing Home Entry: A Prognostic Model for Older Adults with a Family or Unpaid Caregiver

OBJECTIVES

To comprehensively examine factors associated with long-term nursing home (NH) entry from 6 domains of older adult and family caregiver risk from nationally representative surveys and develop a prognostic model and a simple scoring system for use in risk stratification.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study.

SETTING

National Long-Term Care Surveys 1999 and 2004 and National Health and Aging Trends Study 2011 and linked caregiver surveys.

PARTICIPANTS

Community-living older adults receiving help with self-care disability and their primary family or unpaid caregiver (N=2,676).

MEASUREMENTS

Prediction of long-term NH entry (>100 days or ending in death) by 24 months follow up, ascertained from Minimum Data Set assessments and dates of death from Medicare enrollment files. Risk factors were measured from survey responses.

RESULTS

In total, 16.1% of older adults entered a NH. Our final model and risk scoring system includes 7 independent risk factors: older adult age (1 point/5 years), living alone (5 points), dementia (3 points), 3 or more of 6 self-care activities (2 points), caregiver age (45-64: 1 point, 65-74: 2 points, ≥75: 4 points), caregiver help with money management (2 points), and caregiver report of moderate (2 points) or high (4 points) strain. Using this model, participants were assigned to risk quintiles. Long-term NH entry was 7.0% in the lowest quintile (0-6 points), 20.4% in the middle 3 quintiles (7-14 points), and 30.9% in the highest quintile (15-22 points). The model was well calibrated and demonstrated moderate discrimination (c-statistic=0.670 in the original data, c-statistic=0.647 in bootstrapped samples, c-statistic=0.652 using the point-scoring system).

CONCLUSION

We developed a prognostic model and simple scoring system that may be used to stratify risk of long-term NH entry of community-living older adults. Our model may be useful for population health and policy applications.

Attributable Cost of Dementia: Demonstrating Pitfalls of Ignoring Multiple Health Care System Utilization

OBJECTIVES

To determine dementia prevalence and costs attributable to dementia using Veterans Health Administration (VHA) data with and without Medicare data.

DATA SOURCES

VHA inpatient, outpatient, purchased care and other data and Medicare enrollment, claims, and assessments in fiscal year (FY) 2013.

STUDY DESIGN

Analyses were conducted with VHA data alone and with combined VHA and Medicare data. Dementia was identified from a VHA sanctioned list of ICD-9 diagnoses. Attributable cost of dementia was estimated using recycled predictions.

DATA COLLECTION

Veterans age 65 and older who used VHA and were enrolled in Traditional Medicare in FY 2013 (1.9 million).

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

VHA records indicated the prevalence of dementia in FY 2013 was 4.8 percent while combined VHA and Medicare data indicated the prevalence was 7.4 percent. Attributable cost of dementia to VHA was, on average, $10,950 per veteran per year (pvpy) using VHA alone and $6,662 pvpy using combined VHA and Medicare data. Combined VHA and Medicare attributable cost of dementia was $11,285 pvpy. Utilization attributed to dementia using VHA data alone was lower for long-term institutionalization and higher for supportive care services than indicated in combined VHA and Medicare data.

CONCLUSIONS

Better planning for clinical and cost-efficient care requires VHA and Medicare to share data for veterans with dementia and likely more generally.

Increasing Prevalence of Assisted Living as a Substitute for Private-Pay Long-Term Nursing Care

OBJECTIVE

Given the tremendous growth in assisted living (AL) over the past 20 years, it is important to understand how expansion has affected the demand for long-term care (LTC) provided in nursing homes (NHs). We estimated the effect of a change in county-level AL beds on the prevalence of private-pay residents and private-pay resident days at the NH-level.

DATA SOURCES

National census of large AL providers (25+ beds), and Minimum Data Set combined with Medicare enrollment records and claims from 2007 and 2014.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective longitudinal analysis of LTC markets.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Mean AL beds per county increased from 285 to 324, while NHs exhibited a decrease in private-pay residents (20.1 to 17.7 percent) and resident days (21.3 to 17.5 percent). An increase of 1,000 AL beds at the county level is associated with a reduction of 0.44 percentage points in private-pay resident days but is not significantly associated with percent of private-pay residents.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that increases in AL capacity have potentially allowed NH residents to delay or decrease their privately financed lengths of stay. As demand for AL continues to grow, it will be important to assess the effects on other LTC sectors.

Medicare Advantage enrollees' use of nursing homes: trends and nursing home characteristics

OBJECTIVES

To examine temporal trends in the prevalence of nursing home (NH) patients participating in Medicare Advantage (MA) and to identify the characteristics of both these patients and the NHs that provide care for them.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

Data sources included the Medicare enrollment file, Minimum Data Set, and facility-level data from the Certification and Survey Provider Enhanced Reporting system. Longitudinal trends of NH use by MA enrollees were examined over the period 2000 to 2013 and logistic regression models were used to identify facility characteristics associated with having a high proportion of MA patients.

RESULTS

The proportion of MA enrollees in NHs more than doubled between 2000 and 2013, increasing 125% during this period. Notable differences in facility characteristics were found between NHs that serve high proportions of MA enrollees and other NHs. High-MA NHs tended to be larger facilities affiliated with chains. These NHs also had better quality indicators, such as higher staffing levels, lower use of antipsychotics, and lower odds of rehospitalization. Additionally, high-MA NHs were more likely to be in counties with higher Medicare managed care penetration and less market concentration.

CONCLUSIONS

MA plans may be selectively contracting with NHs, as evidenced by the larger shares of MA patients who have been placed in facilities with better performance on quality measures. This may reflect MA plans concentrating enrollees in specific facilities and building "networks" of postacute and long-term care providers that provide better and more efficient care.

Increasing Prevalence of Assisted Living as a Substitute for Private-Pay Long-Term Nursing Care

OBJECTIVE

Given the tremendous growth in assisted living (AL) over the past 20 years, it is important to understand how expansion has affected the demand for long-term care (LTC) provided in nursing homes (NHs). We estimated the effect of a change in county-level AL beds on the prevalence of private-pay residents and private-pay resident days at the NH-level.

DATA SOURCES

National census of large AL providers (25+ beds), and Minimum Data Set combined with Medicare enrollment records and claims from 2007 and 2014.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective longitudinal analysis of LTC markets.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Mean AL beds per county increased from 285 to 324, while NHs exhibited a decrease in private-pay residents (20.1 to 17.7 percent) and resident days (21.3 to 17.5 percent). An increase of 1,000 AL beds at the county level is associated with a reduction of 0.44 percentage points in private-pay resident days but is not significantly associated with percent of private-pay residents.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that increases in AL capacity have potentially allowed NH residents to delay or decrease their privately financed lengths of stay. As demand for AL continues to grow, it will be important to assess the effects on other LTC sectors.

Site of Death, Place of Care, and Health Care Transitions Among US Medicare Beneficiaries, 2000-2015

IMPORTANCE

End-of-life care costs are high and decedents often experience poor quality of care. Numerous factors influence changes in site of death, health care transitions, and burdensome patterns of care.

OBJECTIVE

To describe changes in site of death and patterns of care among Medicare decedents.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective cohort study among a 20% random sample of 1 361 870 decedents who had Medicare fee-for-service (2000, 2005, 2009, 2011, and 2015) and a 100% sample of 871 845 decedents who had Medicare Advantage (2011 and 2015) and received care at an acute care hospital, at home or in the community, at a hospice inpatient care unit, or at a nursing home.

EXPOSURES

Secular changes between 2000 and 2015.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Medicare administrative data were used to determine site of death, place of care, health care transitions, which are changes in location of care, and burdensome patterns of care. Burdensome patterns of care were based on health care transitions during the last 3 days of life and multiple hospitalizations for infections or dehydration during the last 120 days of life.

RESULTS

The site of death and patterns of care were studied among 1 361 870 decedents who had Medicare fee-for-service (mean [SD] age, 82.8 [8.4] years; 58.7% female) and 871 845 decedents who had Medicare Advantage (mean [SD] age, 82.1 [8.5] years; 54.0% female). Among Medicare fee-for-service decedents, the proportion of deaths that occurred in an acute care hospital decreased from 32.6% (95% CI, 32.4%-32.8%) in 2000 to 19.8% (95% CI, 19.6%-20.0%) in 2015, and deaths in a home or community setting that included assisted living facilities increased from 30.7% (95% CI, 30.6%-30.9%) in 2000 to 40.1% (95% CI, 39.9%-30.3% ) in 2015. Use of the intensive care unit during the last 30 days of life among Medicare fee-for-service decedents increased from 24.3% (95% CI, 24.1%-24.4%) in 2000 and then stabilized between 2009 and 2015 at 29.0% (95% CI, 28.8%-29.2%). Among Medicare fee-for-service decedents, health care transitions during the last 3 days of life increased from 10.3% (95% CI, 10.1%-10.4%) in 2000 to a high of 14.2% (95% CI, 14.0%-14.3%) in 2009 and then decreased to 10.8% (95% CI, 10.6%-10.9%) in 2015. The number of decedents enrolled in Medicare Advantage during the last 90 days of life increased from 358 600 in 2011 to 513 245 in 2015. Among decedents with Medicare Advantage, similar patterns in the rates for site of death, place of care, and health care transitions were observed.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries who died in 2015 compared with 2000, there was a lower likelihood of dying in an acute care hospital, an increase and then stabilization of intensive care unit use during the last month of life, and an increase and then decline in health care transitions during the last 3 days of life.

Effects of Caps on Cost Sharing for Skilled Nursing Facility Services in Medicare Advantage Plans

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate a federal regulation effective in 2011 that limited how much that Medicare Advantage (MA) plans could charge for the first 20 days of care in a skilled nursing facility (SNF).

DESIGN

Difference-in-differences retrospective analysis comparing SNF utilization trends from 2008-2012.

SETTING

Select MA plans.

PARTICIPANTS

Members of 27 plans with mandatory cost sharing reductions (n=132,000) and members of 21 plans without such reductions (n=138,846).

MEASUREMENTS

Mean monthly number of SNF admissions and days per 1,000 members; annual proportion of MA enrollees exiting the plan.

RESULTS

In plans with mandated cost sharing reductions, cost sharing for the first 20 days of SNF care decreased from an average of $2,039 in 2010 to $992 in 2011. In adjusted analyses, plans with mandated cost-sharing reductions averaged 158.1 SNF days (95% confidence interval (CI)=153.2-163.1 days) per 1,000 members per month before the cost sharing cap. This measure increased by 14.3 days (95% CI=3.8-24.8 days, p=0.009) in the 2 years after cap implementation. However, increases in SNF utilization did not significantly differ between plans with and without mandated cost-sharing reductions (adjusted between-group difference: 7.1 days per 1,000 members, 95% CI=-6.5-20.8, p=.30). Disenrollment patterns did not change after the cap took effect.

CONCLUSIONS

When a federal regulation designed to protect MA members from high out-of-pocket costs for postacute care took effect, the use of SNF services did not change.

Effect of Obesity on Postacute Outcomes of Skilled Nursing Facility Residents with Hip Fracture

OBJECTIVES

To examine the effect of obesity (body mass index (BMI)≥30.0 kg/m² ) on outcomes of older adults admitted to skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) for hip fracture postacute care (PAC).

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

U.S. Medicare- and Medicaid-certified SNFs from 2008 to 2015.

PARTICIPANTS

Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries discharged to a SNF after hospitalization for hip fracture (N=586,683; n=82,768 (14.1%) meeting obesity criteria). Exclusion criteria were aged younger than 65, being underweight (BMI<18.5 kg/m² ), and SNF use in the year prior to index hospitalization.

MEASUREMENTS

Residents were divided into 4 BMI categories according to cutoffs that the World Health Organization has established: not obese (BMI 18.5-29.9 kg/m² ), mild obesity (BMI 30.0-34.9 kg/m² ), moderate obesity (BMI 35.0-39.9 kg/m² ), and severe obesity (BMI≥40.0 kg/m² ). Robust Poisson regression was used to compare differences in average nursing facility length of stay (LOS) and rates of 30-day hospital readmission, successful discharge to community, and becoming a long-stay resident (LOS>100) according to obesity level. Models were adjusted for individual-level covariates and facility fixed effects.

RESULTS

Residents with mild (adjusted relative risk (aRR)=1.16, 95% CI=1.12-1.19), moderate (aRR=1.27, 95% CI=1.20-1.35), and severe (aRR=1.67, 95% CI=1.54-1.82) obesity were more likely to be readmitted within 30 days than those who were not obese. The average difference in LOS between residents without obesity and those with mild obesity was 2.6 days (95% CI=2.2-2.9 days); moderate obesity, 4.2 days (95% CI=3.7-5.1 days); and severe obesity, 7.0 days (95% CI=5.9-8.2 days). Residents with obesity were less likely to be successfully discharged and more likely to become long-stay nursing home residents.

CONCLUSION

Obesity was associated with worse outcomes in postacute SNF residents with hip fracture. Efforts to provide targeted care to residents with obesity may be essential to improve outcomes. Obesity may be an overlooked risk adjuster in quality-of-care measures and in payment reforms related to PAC for individuals with hip fracture.

The Role of Medicare's Inpatient Cost-Sharing in Medicaid Entry

OBJECTIVE

To isolate the effect of greater inpatient cost-sharing on Medicaid entry among Medicare beneficiaries.

DATA SOURCES

Medicare administrative data (years 2007-2010) were linked to nursing home assessments and area-level socioeconomic indicators.

STUDY DESIGN

Medicare beneficiaries who are readmitted to a hospital must pay an additional deductible ($1,100 in 2010) if their readmission occurs more than 59 days following discharge. In a regression discontinuity analysis, we take advantage of this Medicare benefit feature to test whether beneficiaries with greater cost-sharing have higher rates of Medicaid enrollment.

DATA EXTRACTION METHODS

We identified 221,248 Medicare beneficiaries with an initial hospital stay and a readmission 53-59 days later (no deductible) or 60-66 days later (charged a deductible).

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Among beneficiaries in low-socioeconomic areas with two hospitalizations, those readmitted 60-66 days after discharge were 21 percent more likely to join Medicaid compared with those readmitted 53-59 days following their initial hospitalization (absolute difference in adjusted risk of Medicaid entry: 3.7 percent vs. 3.1 percent, p = .01).

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing Medicare cost-sharing requirements may promote Medicaid enrollment among low-income beneficiaries. Potential savings from an increased cost-sharing in the Medicare program may be offset by increased Medicaid participation.

Anticholinergic Prescribing in Medicare Part D Beneficiaries Residing in Nursing Homes: Results from a Retrospective Cross-Sectional Analysis of Medicare Data

BACKGROUND

Prescribing of medications with anticholinergic properties in older nursing home residents is relatively common, despite an association with an increased risk for falls, delirium, and other outcomes. Few studies have investigated what factors influence different levels of prescribing of these agents.

OBJECTIVES

The primary objective was to identify factors associated with low- and high-level anticholinergic burden in nursing home residents. A secondary objective was to examine in detail the contribution of different medications to low versus high burden to aid in determining which drugs to target in interventions.

METHODS

This was a retrospective, cross-sectional analysis of a national sample of 2009-2010 Medicare Part A and B claims, Part D prescription drug events, and Minimum Data Set (MDS) v2.0 assessments. The cohort included 4730 Medicare beneficiaries aged ≥ 65 years with continuous Medicare Parts A, B, and D enrollment, admitted for non-skilled stays of ≥ 14 days between 1 January 2010 and 30 September 2010. Anticholinergic burden was defined using the Anticholinergic Cognitive Burden (ACB) scale. Medication scores were summed at the patient level and categorized as high (score ≥ 3), low (score 1-2), or none. Baseline predisposing factors (age, sex, race/ethnicity), enabling factors (prior year hospitalization, emergency department, primary care, specialist visits; region; Medicaid/low-income subsidy), and medical need factors (dementia severity, anti-dementia medication, Charlson co-morbidity index [CCI], select comorbidities) were evaluated for association with anticholinergic burden using multinomial logistic regression.

RESULTS

Overall, 29.6% of subjects had a high anticholinergic burden and 35.2% had a low burden. High burden was most often (72%) due to one highly anticholinergic medication rather than a cumulative effect. In adjusted analyses, factors associated with increased risk of both low and high anticholinergic burden included comorbidity, antidementia medication, depression, hypertension, and prior year hospitalization. Older age was associated with decreased odds of high anticholinergic burden. Urinary incontinence and prior year specialist visit were associated with increased odds of high anticholinergic burden. Severe and nonsevere dementia were associated with decreased odds of low burden but increased odds of high burden.

CONCLUSION

Almost two-thirds of nursing home patients have some degree of anticholinergic burden. Several medical need variables are significantly associated with increased risk for low and high anticholinergic burden. Interventions should be developed to optimize prescribing for residents at increased risk of receiving medications with anticholinergic properties. Future study is needed to evaluate the difference in the risk of adverse outcomes associated with various levels of anticholinergic burden.

Facility and State Variation in Hip Fracture in U.S. Nursing Home Residents

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the variation in hip fracture incidence across U.S. nursing home (NH) facilities and states and examine how hip fracture incidence varies according to facility- and state-level characteristics.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort using linked national Minimum Data Set assessments; Online Survey, Certification and Reporting records; and Medicare claims.

SETTING

U.S. NHs with 100 or more beds.

PARTICIPANTS

Long-stay NH residents between May 1, 2007, and April 30, 2008, from 1,481 facilities and 46 U.S. states (N = 201,892).

MEASUREMENTS

Incident hip fractures were ascertained using Medicare Part A diagnostic codes. Each resident was followed for up to 2 years.

RESULTS

The mean adjusted incidence rate of hip fractures for all facilities was 3.13 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.01-3.26) per 100 person-years (range 1.20, 95% CI = 1.15-1.26 to 6.40, 95% CI = 6.07-6.77). Facilities with the highest rates of hip fracture had greater percentages of residents taking psychoactive medications (top tertile 27.2%, bottom tertile 24.8%), and fewer nursing (top tertile 3.43, bottom tertile 3.53) and direct care (top tertile 3.22, bottom tertile 3.29) hours per day per resident. The combination of state and facility characteristics explained 6.7% of the variation in hip fracture, and resident characteristics explained 7.6%.

CONCLUSION

Much of the variation in hip fracture incidence remained unexplained, although these findings indicate that potentially modifiable state and facility characteristics such as psychoactive drug prescribing and minimum staffing requirements could be addressed to help reduce the rate of hip fracture in U.S. NHs.

Clinical characteristics associated with the onset of delirium among long-term nursing home residents

Background

Nursing home residents are frail, have multiple medical comorbidities, and are at high risk for delirium. Most of the existing evidence base on delirium is derived from studies in the acute in-patient population. We examine the association between clinical characteristics and medication use with the incidence of delirium during the nursing home stay.

Methods

This is a retrospective cohort study of 1571 residents from 12 nursing homes operated by a single care provider in Ontario, Canada. Residents were over the age of 55 and admitted between February 2010 and December 2015 with no baseline delirium and a minimum stay of 180 days. Residents with moderate or worse cognitive impairment at baseline were excluded. The baseline and follow-up characteristics of residents were collected from the Resident Assessment Instrument-Minimal Data Set 2.0 completed at admission and repeated quarterly until death or discharge. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify characteristics and medication use associated with the onset of delirium.

Results

The incidence of delirium was 40.4% over the nursing home stay (mean LOS: 32 months). A diagnosis of dementia (OR: 2.54, p < .001), the presence of pain (OR: 1.64, p < .001), and the use of antipsychotics (OR: 1.87, p < .001) were significantly associated with the onset of delirium. Compared to residents who did not develop delirium, residents who developed a delirium had a greater increase in the use of antipsychotics and antidepressants over the nursing home stay.

Conclusions

Dementia, the presence of pain, and the use of antipsychotics were associated with the onset of delirium. Pain monitoring and treatment may be important to decrease delirium in nursing homes. Future studies are necessary to examine the prescribing patterns in nursing homes and their association with delirium.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12877-018-0733-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Change in VA Community Living Centers 2004-2011: Shifting Long-Term Care to the Community

The United States Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) is facing pressures to rebalance its long-term care system. Using VA administrative data from 2004-2011, we describe changes in the VA's nursing homes (called Community Living Centers [CLCs]) following enactment of directives intended to shift CLCs' focus from providing long-term custodial care to short-term rehabilitative and post-acute care, with safe and timely discharge to the community. However, a concurrent VA hospice and palliative care expansion resulted in an increase in hospice stays, the most notable change in type of stay during this time period. Nevertheless, outcomes for Veterans with non-hospice short and long stays, such as successful discharge to the community, improved. We discuss the implications of our results for simultaneous implementation of two initiatives in VA CLCs.

New Institutionalization in Long-Term Care After Hospital Discharge to Skilled Nursing Facility

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Approximately half of individuals newly admitted to long-term care (LTC) nursing homes (NHs) experienced a prior hospitalization followed by discharge to a skilled nursing facility (SNF). The objective was to examine characteristics associated with new institutionalizations of older adults on this care trajectory.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

SNFs and LTC NHs.

PATIENTS

Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries admitted to 7,442 SNFs in 2013 (N = 597,986).

MEASUREMENTS

We used demographic and clinical characteristics from Medicare data and the Minimum Data Set. We defined "new institutionalization" as LTC NH residence for longer than 90 non-SNF days, starting within 6 months of hospital discharge.

RESULTS

For individuals who survived 6 months after hospital discharge, the overall rate of new LTC institutionalizations was 10.0% (N = 59,736). Older age, white race, being unmarried, Medicaid eligibility, higher income, more comorbidities, cognitive impairment, depression, functional limitations, hallucinations and delusions, aggressive behavior, incontinence, and pressure ulcers were associated with higher adjusted odds of new LTC institutionalization. In analyses stratified according to race and ethnicity, higher income was associated with lower odds of LTC institutionalization for whites (odds ratio (OR) = 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.89-0.96) and greater odds for blacks (OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.27-1.55) and Hispanics (OR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.25-1.66). Moderate or severe depression, functional limitations, hallucinations and delusions, aggressive behavior, and being unmarried were stronger risk factors for LTC for cognitively intact individuals than for those with moderate to severe cognitive impairment. Being unmarried and having more comorbidities were stronger predictors in those aged 66 to 70 than in those aged 81 to 85 and 91 and older.

CONCLUSION

Associations between risk factors and new LTC institutionalizations varied according to race and ethnicity, age, and level of cognitive function. Programs that target older adults at greater risk may be an effective strategy for reducing new institutionalizations and fostering aging in place.

Trajectories Over the First Year of Long-Term Care Nursing Home Residence

OBJECTIVES

To describe the trajectories in the first year after individuals are admitted to long-term care nursing homes.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

US long-term care facilities.

PARTICIPANTS

Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries newly admitted to long-term care nursing homes from July 1, 2012, to December 31, 2013 (N=535,202).

MEASUREMENTS

Demographic characteristics were from Medicare data. Individual trajectories were conducted using the Minimum Data Set for determining long-term care stays and community discharge, and Medicare Provider and Analysis Reviews claims data for determining hospitalizations, skilled nursing facility stays, inpatient rehabilitation, long-term acute hospital and psychiatric hospital stays.

RESULTS

The median length of stay in a long-term care nursing home over the 1 year following admission was 127 [interquartile range (IQR): 24, 356] days. The median length of stay in any institution was 158 (IQR: 38, 365). Residents experienced a mean of 2.1  ± 2.8 (standard deviation) transitions over the first year. The community discharge rate was 36.5% over the 1-year follow-up, with 20.8% discharged within 30 days and 31.2% discharged within 100 days. The mortality rate over the first year of nursing home residence was 35.0%, with 16.3% deaths within 100 days. At 12 months post long-term care admission, 36.9% of the cohort were in long-term care, 23.4% were in community, 4.7% were in acute care hospitals or other institutions, and 35.0% had died.

CONCLUSION

After a high initial community discharge rate, the majority of patients newly admitted to long-term care experienced multiple transitions while remaining institutionalized until death or the end of 1-year follow-up.

Hospitalizations and Nursing Facility Stays During the Transition from CKD to ESRD on Dialysis: An Observational Study

BACKGROUND

There is little information on hospital and nursing facility stays during the transition from pre-dialysis kidney disease to end-stage renal disease treated with dialysis.

OBJECTIVES

To examine hospital and nursing facility stays in the years pre- and post-dialysis initiation, and to develop a novel method for visualizing these data.

DESIGN

Observational study of patients in the US Renal Data System initiating dialysis from October 2011 to October 2012.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients aged ≥67 years with Medicare Part A/B coverage for 1 year pre-dialysis initiation.

MAIN MEASURES

Proportion of patients with ≥1 facility day, and among these, the mean number of days and the mean proportion of time spent in a facility in the first year post-dialysis initiation. We created "heat maps" to represent data visually.

KEY RESULTS

Among 28,049 patients, > 60% initiated dialysis in the hospital. Patients with at least 1 facility day spent 37-42 days in a facility in the year pre-dialysis initiation and 59-67 facility days in the year post-dialysis initiation. The duration of facility stay varied by age: patients aged 67-70 years spent 60 (95% CI 57-62) days or 25.8% of the first year post-dialysis initiation in a facility, while patients aged >80 years spent 67 (CI 65-69) days or 36.8% of the first year post-dialysis initiation in a facility. Patterns varied depending on the presence or absence of certain comorbid conditions, with dementia having a particularly large effect: patients with dementia spent approximately 50% of the first year post-dialysis initiation in a facility, regardless of age.

CONCLUSIONS

Older patients, particularly octogenarians and patients with dementia or other comorbidities, spend a large proportion of time in a facility during the first year after dialysis initiation. Our heat maps provide a novel and concise visual representation of a large amount of quantitative data regarding expected outcomes after initiation of dialysis.

Secondary Prevention Medication Use After Myocardial Infarction in U.S. Nursing Home Residents

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Secondary prevention medications are recommended for older adults after acute myocardial infarction (AMI), but little is known about whether nursing home (NH) residents receive these medications. The objective was to evaluate new use of secondary prevention medications after AMI in NH residents who were previously nonusers and to evaluate what factors were associated with use.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort using linked national Minimum Data Set assessments; Online Survey, Certification and Reporting records; and Medicare claims.

SETTING

U.S. NHs.

PARTICIPANTS

National cohort of 11,192 NH residents aged 65 and older who were hospitalized for an AMI between May 2007 and March 2010, had no beta-blocker or statin use for 4 months or longer before the hospitalization, and survived 14 days or more after NH readmission.

MEASUREMENTS

The outcome was the number of secondary prevention medications initiated within 30 days of NH readmission.

RESULTS

Thirty-seven percent of residents had no secondary prevention medications initiated after AMI, 41% had 1 initiated, and 22% had 2 initiated. After covariate adjustment, fewer secondary prevention medications were used in older residents (proportional odds ratio (POR) = 0.48, 95% confidence interval (CI)  = 0.40-0.57 for ≥95 vs 65-74); women (POR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.80-0.96);and those with a do-not-resuscitate (DNR) order (POR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.83-0.98), functional impairment (dependent or totally dependent vs independent to limited assistance, POR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.69-0.86), and cognitive impairment (moderate to severe vs no impairment, POR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.70-0.89).

CONCLUSION

More than one-third of older NH residents in the United States do not have any secondary prevention medications initiated after AMI, with fewer medications initiated in older residents; women; and those with, DNR orders, poor physical function, and cognitive impairment. A lack of evidence about the safety and effectiveness of secondary preventions medications in the NH population and unmeasured person-centered goals of care are plausible explanations for these findings.