Emergence of drug-resistant influenza virus: population dynamical considerations

Antiviral Resistance in Influenza Viruses: Clinical and Epidemiological Aspects

Two classes of anti-viral agents, the M2 ion channel inhibitors (amantadine, rimantadine) and neuraminidase (NA) inhibitors (oseltamivir, zanamivir) are available for treatment and prevention of infl uenza in most countries of the world. The principle concerns about emergence of antiviral resistance in infl uenza viruses are loss of drug effi cacy, transmission of resistant variants, and possible increased virulence or transmissibility of resistant variants (1). Because seasonal infl uenza is usually an acute, self-limited illness in which viral clearance occurs rapidly due to innate and adaptive host immune responses, the emergence of drug-resistant variants would be anticipated to have modest effects on clinical recovery, except perhaps in immunocompromised or immunologically naïve hosts, such as young infants or during the appearance of a novel strain. In contrast to the limited impact of resistance emergence in the treated immunocompetent individual, the epidemiologic impact of resistance emergence and transmission could be considerable, including loss of both prophylactic and therapeutic activity for a particular drug, at the household, community, or perhaps global level. Infl uenza epidemiology in temperate climates is expected to provide some protection against widespread circulation of resistant variants, as viruses do not persist between epidemics but rather are re-introduced each season and new variants appear often (2, 3).

Reversion of influenza A (H3N2) virus from amantadine resistant to amantadine sensitive by further reassortment in Japan during the 2006-to-2007 influenza season

In the 2006-to-2007 influenza season, amantadine-sensitive strains were found among the N-lineage influenza A (H3N2) viruses, which were previously believed to be associated with amantadine resistance. Whole-genome sequencing results indicated that this was due to a further reassortment event.

Evolution of drug resistance in multiple distinct lineages of H5N1 avian influenza

Some predict that influenza A H5N1 will be the cause of a pandemic among humans. In preparation for such an event, many governments and organizations have stockpiled antiviral drugs such as oseltamivir (Tamiflu). However, it is known that multiple lineages of H5N1 are already resistant to another class of drugs, adamantane derivatives, and a few lineages are resistant to oseltamivir. What is less well understood is the evolutionary history of the mutations that confer drug resistance in the H5N1 population. In order to address this gap, we conducted phylogenetic analyses of 676 genomic sequences of H5N1 and used the resulting hypotheses as a basis for asking 3 molecular evolutionary questions: (1) Have drug-resistant genotypes arisen in distinct lineages of H5N1 through point mutation or through reassortment? (2) Is there evidence for positive selection on the codons that lead to drug resistance? (3) Is there evidence for covariation between positions in the genome that confer resistance to drugs and other positions, unrelated to drug resistance, that may be under selection for other phenotypes? We also examine how drug-resistant lineages proliferate across the landscape by projecting or phylogenetic analysis onto a virtual globe. Our results for H5N1 show that in most cases drug resistance has arisen by independent point mutations rather than reassortment or covariation. Furthermore, we found that some codons that mediate resistance to adamantane derivatives are under positive selection, but did not find positive selection on codons that mediate resistance to oseltamivir. Together, our phylogenetic methods, molecular evolutionary analyses, and geographic visualization provide a framework for analysis of globally distributed genomic data that can be used to monitor the evolution of drug resistance.

Modeling the effects of drug resistant influenza virus in a pandemic

Neuraminidase inhibitors (NI) play a major role in plans to mitigate future influenza pandemics. Modeling studies suggested that a pandemic may be contained at the source by early treatment and prophylaxis with antiviral drugs. Here, we examine the influence of NI resistant influenza strains on an influenza pandemic. We extend the freely available deterministic simulation program InfluSim to incorporate importations of resistant infections and the emergence of de novo resistance. The epidemic with the fully drug sensitive strain leads to a cumulative number of 19,500 outpatients and 258 hospitalizations, respectively, per 100,000 inhabitants. Development of de novo resistance alone increases the total number of outpatients by about 6% and hospitalizations by about 21%. If a resistant infection is introduced into the population after three weeks, the outcome dramatically deteriorates. Wide-spread use of NI treatment makes it highly likely that the resistant strain will spread if its fitness is high. This situation is further aggravated if a resistant virus is imported into a country in the early phase of an outbreak. As NI-resistant influenza infections with high fitness and pathogenicity have just been observed, the emergence of drug resistance in treated populations and the transmission of drug resistant strains is an important public health concern for seasonal and pandemic influenza.

Management of drug resistance in the population: influenza as a case study

The rise of drug resistance remains a major impediment to the treatment of some diseases caused by fast-evolving pathogens that undergo genetic mutations. Models describing the within-host infectious dynamics suggest that the resistance is unlikely to emerge if the pathogen-specific immune responses are maintained above a certain threshold during therapy. However, emergence of resistance in the population involves both within-host and between-host infection mechanisms. Here, we employ a mathematical model to identify an effective treatment strategy for the management of drug resistance in the population. We show that, in the absence of pre-existing immunity, the population-wide spread of drug-resistant pathogen strains can be averted if a sizable portion of susceptible hosts is depleted before drugs are used on a large scale. The findings, based on simulations for influenza infection as a case study, suggest that the initial prevalence of the drug-sensitive strain under low pressure of drugs, followed by a timely implementation of intensive treatment, can minimize the total number of infections while preventing outbreaks of drug-resistant infections.

Antiviral resistance and the control of pandemic influenza: the roles of stochasticity, evolution and model details

Antiviral drugs, most notably the neuraminidase inhibitors, are an important component of control strategies aimed to prevent or limit any future influenza pandemic. The potential large-scale use of antiviral drugs brings with it the danger of drug resistance evolution. A number of recent studies have shown that the emergence of drug-resistant influenza could undermine the usefulness of antiviral drugs for the control of an epidemic or pandemic outbreak. While these studies have provided important insights, the inherently stochastic nature of resistance generation and spread, as well as the potential for ongoing evolution of the resistant strain have not been fully addressed. Here, we study a stochastic model of drug resistance emergence and consecutive evolution of the resistant strain in response to antiviral control during an influenza pandemic. We find that taking into consideration the ongoing evolution of the resistant strain does not increase the probability of resistance emergence; however, it increases the total number of infecteds if a resistant outbreak occurs. Our study further shows that taking stochasticity into account leads to results that can differ from deterministic models. Specifically, we find that rapid and strong control cannot only contain a drug sensitive outbreak, it can also prevent a resistant outbreak from occurring. We find that the best control strategy is early intervention heavily based on prophylaxis at a level that leads to outbreak containment. If containment is not possible, mitigation works best at intermediate levels of antiviral control. Finally, we show that the results are not very sensitive to the way resistance generation is modeled.

Surveillance for neuraminidase-inhibitor-resistant influenza viruses in Japan, 1996–2007

Background

High usage of the neuraminidase inhibitor (NAI) oseltamivir in Japan since 2003 led the Neuraminidase Inhibitor Susceptibility Network to assess the susceptibility of community isolates of influenza viruses to oseltamivir and zanamivir.

Methods

Isolates were tested by the enzyme inhibition assay and by neuraminidase (NA) sequence analysis.

Results

Among 1,141 A(H3N2) viruses and 171 type B viruses collected in Japan during the 2003–2004 season, 3 (0.3%) A(H3N2) isolates showed high 50% inhibitory concentrations (IC50) to oseltamivir. Each possessed a known resistance NA mutation at R292K or E119V. During the 2004–2005 season, no resistance was found among 567 influenza A(H3N2) or 60 A(H1N1) isolates, but 1 of 58 influenza B isolates had an NAI resistance mutation (D197N). Sequence analysis found that 4 (3%) of 132 A(H1N1) viruses from 2005–2006 had known NA resistance mutations (all H274Y), but no additional resistant isolates were detected from that or the subsequent 2006–2007 season. Concurrent testing of a selection of 500 influenza B viruses from 2000 to 2006 showed significant variations between seasons in both oseltamivir and zanamivir IC50 values, but no persistent increases over this period.

Conclusions

Our findings suggested possible low-level transmission of resistant variants from oseltamivir-treated patients in several seasons in Japan but no sustained reductions in NAI susceptibility or consistently increased frequency of detecting resistant variants for any strain or subtype, despite high levels of drug use. In particular, although oseltamivir-resistant A(H1N1) viruses with the H274Y mutation spread globally in 2007–2008, we found little evidence for increasing levels of resistant A(H1N1) variants in Japan in preceding years.

Impact of emerging antiviral drug resistance on influenza containment and spread: influence of subclinical infection and strategic use of a stockpile containing one or two drugs

Background

Wide-scale use of antiviral agents in the event of an influenza pandemic is likely to promote the emergence of drug resistance, with potentially deleterious effects for outbreak control. We explored factors promoting resistance within a dynamic infection model, and considered ways in which one or two drugs might be distributed to delay the spread of resistant strains or mitigate their impact.

Methods and Findings

We have previously developed a novel deterministic model of influenza transmission that simulates treatment and targeted contact prophylaxis, using a limited stockpile of antiviral agents. This model was extended to incorporate subclinical infections, and the emergence of resistant virus strains under the selective pressure imposed by various uses of one or two antiviral agents. For a fixed clinical attack rate, R₀ rises with the proportion of subclinical infections thus reducing the number of infections amenable to treatment or prophylaxis. In consequence, outbreak control is more difficult, but emergence of drug resistance is relatively uncommon. Where an epidemic may be constrained by use of a single antiviral agent, strategies that combine treatment and prophylaxis are most effective at controlling transmission, at the cost of facilitating the spread of resistant viruses. If two drugs are available, using one drug for treatment and the other for prophylaxis is more effective at preventing propagation of mutant strains than either random allocation or drug cycling strategies. Our model is relatively straightforward, and of necessity makes a number of simplifying assumptions. Our results are, however, consistent with the wider body of work in this area and are able to place related research in context while extending the analysis of resistance emergence and optimal drug use within the constraints of a finite drug stockpile.

Conclusions

Combined treatment and prophylaxis represents optimal use of antiviral agents to control transmission, at the cost of drug resistance. Where two drugs are available, allocating different drugs to cases and contacts is likely to be most effective at constraining resistance emergence in a pandemic scenario.

Neuraminidase inhibitor resistance in influenza: assessing the danger of its generation and spread

Neuraminidase Inhibitors (NI) are currently the most effective drugs against influenza. Recent cases of NI resistance are a cause for concern. To assess the danger of NI resistance, a number of studies have reported the fraction of treated patients from which resistant strains could be isolated. Unfortunately, those results strongly depend on the details of the experimental protocol. Additionally, knowing the fraction of patients harboring resistance is not too useful by itself. Instead, we want to know how likely it is that an infected patient can generate a resistant infection in a secondary host, and how likely it is that the resistant strain subsequently spreads. While estimates for these parameters can often be obtained from epidemiological data, such data is lacking for NI resistance in influenza. Here, we use an approach that does not rely on epidemiological data. Instead, we combine data from influenza infections of human volunteers with a mathematical framework that allows estimation of the parameters that govern the initial generation and subsequent spread of resistance. We show how these parameters are influenced by changes in drug efficacy, timing of treatment, fitness of the resistant strain, and details of virus and immune system dynamics. Our study provides estimates for parameters that can be directly used in mathematical and computational models to study how NI usage might lead to the emergence and spread of resistance in the population. We find that the initial generation of resistant cases is most likely lower than the fraction of resistant cases reported. However, we also show that the results depend strongly on the details of the within-host dynamics of influenza infections, and most importantly, the role the immune system plays. Better knowledge of the quantitative dynamics of the immune response during influenza infections will be crucial to further improve the results.

Neuraminidase Inhibitors (NI) are currently the most effective drugs against influenza. Recent cases of NI resistance are a cause for concern. A number of studies have reported the fraction of treated patients from which resistant virus could be isolated. While these results provide some assessment of the danger of NI resistance, a more quantitative understanding is preferable. We specifically want to know how likely it is that an infected, treated patient infects another person with the resistant strain, and how likely it is that the resistant strain subsequently spreads. Knowing these quantities is important for studies of the population-wide emergence of resistance. While these parameters can often be estimated from epidemiological data, such data is lacking for NI resistance in influenza. Here, we use an alternative approach that combines data from influenza infections of human volunteers with a mathematical framework. We find that the initial generation of resistant cases is most likely lower than the fraction of resistant cases reported. However, our study also clearly shows that the results depend strongly on the role the immune response plays, an issue that needs to be addressed in future studies.

Population-wide emergence of antiviral resistance during pandemic influenza

Background

The emergence of neuraminidase inhibitor resistance has raised concerns about the prudent use of antiviral drugs in response to the next influenza pandemic. While resistant strains may initially emerge with compromised viral fitness, mutations that largely compensate for this impaired fitness can arise. Understanding the extent to which these mutations affect the spread of disease in the population can have important implications for developing pandemic plans.

Methodology/Principal Findings

By employing a deterministic mathematical model, we investigate possible scenarios for the emergence of population-wide resistance in the presence of antiviral drugs. The results show that if the treatment level (the fraction of clinical infections which receives treatment) is maintained constant during the course of the outbreak, there is an optimal level that minimizes the final size of the pandemic. However, aggressive treatment above the optimal level can substantially promote the spread of highly transmissible resistant mutants and increase the total number of infections. We demonstrate that resistant outbreaks can occur more readily when the spread of disease is further delayed by applying other curtailing measures, even if treatment levels are kept modest. However, by changing treatment levels over the course of the pandemic, it is possible to reduce the final size of the pandemic below the minimum achieved at the optimal constant level. This reduction can occur with low treatment levels during the early stages of the pandemic, followed by a sharp increase in drug-use before the virus becomes widely spread.

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings suggest that an adaptive antiviral strategy with conservative initial treatment levels, followed by a timely increase in the scale of drug-use, can minimize the final size of a pandemic while preventing large outbreaks of resistant infections.

Emergence of drug resistance: implications for antiviral control of pandemic influenza

Given the danger of an unprecedented spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza strain H5N1 in humans, and great challenges to the development of an effective influenza vaccine, antiviral drugs will probably play a pivotal role in combating a novel pandemic strain. A critical limitation to the use of these drugs is the evolution of highly transmissible drug-resistant viral mutants. Here, we develop a mathematical model to evaluate the potential impact of an antiviral treatment strategy on the emergence of drug resistance and containment of a pandemic. The results show that elimination of the wild-type strain depends crucially on both the early onset of treatment in indexed cases and population-level treatment. Given the probable delay of 0.5-1 day in seeking healthcare and therefore initiating therapy, the findings indicate that a single strategy of antiviral treatment will be unsuccessful at controlling the spread of disease if the reproduction number of the wild-type strain (R0s) exceeds 1.4. We demonstrate the possible occurrence of a self-sustaining epidemic of resistant strain, in terms of its transmission fitness relative to the wild-type, and the reproduction number R0s. Considering reproduction numbers estimated for the past three pandemics, the findings suggest that an uncontrollable pandemic is likely to occur if resistant viruses with relative transmission fitness above 0.4 emerge. While an antiviral strategy is crucial for containing a pandemic, its effectiveness depends critically on timely and strategic use of drugs.

Clinical review: update of avian influenza A infections in humans

Influenza A viruses have a wide host range for infection, from wild waterfowl to poultry to humans. Recently, the cross-species transmission of avian influenza A, particularly subtype H5N1, has highlighted the importance of the non-human subtypes and their incidence in the human population has increased over the past decade. During cross-species transmission, human disease can range from the asymptomatic to mild conjunctivitis to fulminant pneumonia and death. With these cases, however, the risk for genetic change and development of a novel virus increases, heightening the need for public health and hospital measures. This review discusses the epidemiology, host range, human disease, outcome, treatment, and prevention of cross-transmission of avian influenza A into humans.

The effect of population structure on the emergence of drug resistance during influenza pandemics

The spread of H5N1 avian influenza and the recent high numbers of confirmed human cases have raised international concern about the possibility of a new pandemic. Therefore, antiviral drugs are now being stockpiled to be used as a first line of defence. The large-scale use of antivirals will however exert a strong selection pressure on the virus, and may lead to the emergence of drug-resistant strains. A few mathematical models have been developed to assess the emergence of drug resistance during influenza pandemics. These models, however, neglected the spatial structure of large populations and the stochasticity of epidemic and demographic processes. To assess the impact of population structure and stochasticity, we modify and extend a previous model of influenza epidemics into a metapopulation model which takes into account the division of large populations into smaller units, and develop deterministic and stochastic versions of the model. We find that the dynamics in a fragmented population is less explosive, and, as a result, prophylaxis will prevent more infections and lead to fewer resistant cases in both the deterministic and stochastic model. While in the deterministic model the final level of resistance during treatment is not affected by fragmentation, in the stochastic model it is. Our results enable us to qualitatively extrapolate the prediction of deterministic, homogeneous-mixing models to more realistic scenarios.

Neuraminidase inhibitor resistance in influenza viruses

Zanamivir and oseltamivir, the currently marketed influenza virus neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs), are prescribed for the treatment and prophylaxis of influenza and are being stockpiled for pandemic influenza. Oseltamivir resistance has been reported in up to 2% of patients in clinical trials of oseltamivir and in up to 18% of treated children. There are also reports in at least three patients treated with oseltamivir for influenza A (H5N1) infections. At this stage, there are no reports of resistance occurring to zanamivir in immunocompetent patients. Zanamivir and oseltamivir bind differently at the neuraminidase catalytic site and this contributes to different drug resistance profiles. The magnitude and duration of NAI concentrations at the site of infection are also expected to be important factors and are determined by route and timing of drug administration, dose, and pharmacokinetic differences between patients. In addition, the type, strain, and virulence of the influenza strain and the nature of the immune response all appear to play a role in determining the likelihood of drug resistance arising. The clinical significance of a particular NAI-resistant isolate from a patient is often not clear but virus viability and transmissibility are clearly important characteristics. Early initiation of NAI treatment in suspected cases of influenza is important for maximizing efficacy and minimizing the risk of drug resistance. Higher NAI doses and longer periods of treatment may be required for patients with influenza A (H5N1) infections but further work is needed in this area.

Antimicrobial resistance prevention initiative--an update: proceedings of an expert panel on resistance

Antimicrobial resistance is a growing problem that complicates the treatment of important nosocomial and community-acquired infections. It is a worldwide problem that spans the range of human pathogens, including bacteria, fungi, and viruses. This update from the Antimicrobial Resistance Prevention Initiative (ARPI) provides a review of some important trends in antibiotic, antifungal, and antiviral resistance. Areas of focus include multidrug-resistant bacteria in the hospital setting; the growing problem of community-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus; triazole and polyene resistance in nosocomial infections caused by non-Candida albicans or Aspergillus species, and the utility of in vitro susceptibility testing for these fungal infections; antiviral resistance in alpha- or beta-herpesviruses causing genital herpes or cytomegalovirus infection in immunocompromised hosts; and concerns about a possible pandemic involving avian influenza A and the importance of minimizing emergence of resistant strains of this highly pathogenic virus. The challenges in each area are different, but the general keys to addressing the growing problem of antimicrobial resistance continue to be responsible antimicrobial stewardship and the development of newer antimicrobial agents.

The impact of prophylaxis of healthcare workers on influenza pandemic burden

Several models have rationalized the use of antiviral drugs as an early control measure for delaying the progression and limiting the size of outbreaks during an influenza pandemic. However, the strategy for use of these drugs is still under debate. We evaluated the impact of prophylaxis of healthcare workers (HCWs) through a mathematical model that considers attack rates in a range of 25-35% in the general population and 25-50% among HCWs. Simulations and uncertainty analysis using the demographics of the province of Ontario, Canada show that increasing prophylaxis coverage of HCWs has little impact on reducing the reproduction number of disease transmission and may not prevent the occurrence of an outbreak if expected. However, it does enable a high level of treatment, which substantially reduces morbidity and mortality in the population as a whole. Therefore, prophylaxis of HCWs should be considered an important part of public health efforts for minimizing influenza pandemic burden and its socio-economic disruption.

Antimicrobial resistance prevention initiative--an update: proceedings of an expert panel on resistance

Antimicrobial resistance is a growing problem that complicates the treatment of important nosocomial and community-acquired infections. It is a worldwide problem that spans the range of human pathogens, including bacteria, fungi, and viruses. This update from the Antimicrobial Resistance Prevention Initiative (ARPI) provides a review of some important trends in antibiotic, antifungal, and antiviral resistance. Areas of focus include multidrug-resistant bacteria in the hospital setting; the growing problem of community-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus; triazole and polyene resistance in nosocomial infections caused by non-Candida albicans or Aspergillus species, and the utility of in vitro susceptibility testing for these fungal infections; antiviral resistance in alpha- or beta-herpesviruses causing genital herpes or cytomegalovirus infection in immunocompromised hosts; and concerns about a possible pandemic involving avian influenza A and the importance of minimizing emergence of resistant strains of this highly pathogenic virus. The challenges in each area are different, but the general keys to addressing the growing problem of antimicrobial resistance continue to be responsible antimicrobial stewardship and the development of newer antimicrobial agents.

Stochastic model of an influenza epidemic with drug resistance

A continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model is formulated for an influenza epidemic with drug resistance. This stochastic model is based on an influenza epidemic model, expressed in terms of a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE), developed by Stilianakis, N.I., Perelson, A.S., Hayden, F.G., [1998. Emergence of drug resistance during an influenza epidemic: insights from a mathematical model. J. Inf. Dis. 177, 863-873]. Three different treatments-chemoprophylaxis, treatment after exposure but before symptoms, and treatment after symptoms appear, are considered. The basic reproduction number, R(0), is calculated for the deterministic-model under different treatment strategies. It is shown that chemoprophylaxis always reduces the basic reproduction number. In addition, numerical simulations illustrate that the basic reproduction number is generally reduced with realistic treatment rates. Comparisons are made among the different models and the different treatment strategies with respect to the number of infected individuals during an outbreak. The final size distribution is computed for the CTMC model and, in some cases, it is shown to have a bimodal distribution corresponding to two situations: when there is no outbreak and when an outbreak occurs. Given an outbreak occurs, the total number of cases for the CTMC model is in good agreement with the ODE model. The greatest number of drug resistant cases occurs if treatment is delayed or if only symptomatic individuals are treated.

What is the best control strategy for multiple infectious disease outbreaks?

Effective control of infectious disease outbreaks is an important public health goal. In a number of recent studies, it has been shown how different intervention measures like travel restrictions, school closures, treatment and prophylaxis might allow us to control outbreaks of diseases, such as SARS, pandemic influenza and others. In these studies, control of a single outbreak is considered. It is, however, not clear how one should handle a situation where multiple outbreaks are likely to occur. Here, we identify the best control strategy for such a situation. We further discuss ways in which such a strategy can be implemented to achieve additional public health objectives.

Quasispecies and its impact on viral hepatitis

Quasispecies dynamics mediates adaptability of RNA viruses through a number of mechanisms reviewed in the present article, with emphasis on the medical implications for the hepatitis viruses. We discuss replicative and non-replicative molecular mechanisms of genome variation, modulating effects of mutant spectra, and several modes of viral evolution that can affect viral pathogenesis. Relevant evolutionary events include the generation of minority virus variants with altered functional properties, and alterations of mutant spectrum complexity that can affect disease progression or response to treatment. The widespread occurrence of resistance to antiviral drugs encourages new strategies to control hepatic viral disease such as combination therapies and lethal mutagenesis. In particular, ribavirin may be exerting in some cases its antiviral activity with participation of its mutagenic action. Despite many unanswered questions, here we document that quasispecies dynamics has provided an interpretation of the adaptability of the hepatitis viruses, with features conceptually similar to those observed with other RNA viruses, a reflection of the common underlying Darwinian principles.

A cell-based luminescence assay is effective for high-throughput screening of potential influenza antivirals

The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza across geographical and species barriers underscores the increasing need for novel antivirals to compliment vaccination and existing antiviral therapies. Identification of new antiviral lead compounds depends on robust primary assays for high-throughput screening (HTS) of large compound libraries. We have developed a cell-based screen for potential influenza antivirals that measures the cytopathic effect (CPE) induced by influenza virus (A/Udorn/72, H3N2) infection in Madin Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells using the luminescent-based CellTiter Glo system. This 72 h assay is validated for HTS in 384-well plates and performs more consistently and reliably than methods using neutral red, with Z values>0.8, signal-to-background>30 and signal-to-noise>10. In a blinded pilot screen (n=10,781) at 10 microM concentration, four compounds (with previously demonstrated efficacy against influenza) inhibited viral-induced CPE by >50%, with EC50/CC50 values comparable to those determined by other cell-based assays, thereby validating this assay accuracy and ability to simultaneously evaluate compound cellular availability and/or toxicity. This assay is translatable for screening against other influenza strains, such as avian flu, and may facilitate identification of antivirals for other viruses that induce CPE, such as West Nile or Dengue.

Antiviral resistance and the control of pandemic influenza

BACKGROUND

The response to the next influenza pandemic will likely include extensive use of antiviral drugs (mainly oseltamivir), combined with other transmission-reducing measures. Animal and in vitro studies suggest that some strains of influenza may become resistant to oseltamivir while maintaining infectiousness (fitness). Use of antiviral agents on the scale anticipated for the control of pandemic influenza will create an unprecedented selective pressure for the emergence and spread of these strains. Nonetheless, antiviral resistance has received little attention when evaluating these plans.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We designed and analyzed a deterministic compartmental model of the transmission of oseltamivir-sensitive and -resistant influenza infections during a pandemic. The model predicts that even if antiviral treatment or prophylaxis leads to the emergence of a transmissible resistant strain in as few as 1 in 50,000 treated persons and 1 in 500,000 prophylaxed persons, widespread use of antivirals may strongly promote the spread of resistant strains at the population level, leading to a prevalence of tens of percent by the end of a pandemic. On the other hand, even in circumstances in which a resistant strain spreads widely, the use of antivirals may significantly delay and/or reduce the total size of the pandemic. If resistant strains carry some fitness cost, then, despite widespread emergence of resistance, antivirals could slow pandemic spread by months or more, and buy time for vaccine development; this delay would be prolonged by nondrug control measures (e.g., social distancing) that reduce transmission, or use of a stockpiled suboptimal vaccine. Surprisingly, the model suggests that such nondrug control measures would increase the proportion of the epidemic caused by resistant strains.

CONCLUSIONS

The benefits of antiviral drug use to control an influenza pandemic may be reduced, although not completely offset, by drug resistance in the virus. Therefore, the risk of resistance should be considered in pandemic planning and monitored closely during a pandemic.

The fight against new types of influenza virus

In 1997, during an outbreak in chickens in Hong Kong the avian H5N1 influenza virus crossed the species barrier and infected 18 people, of which 6 cases were fatal. The virus also infected wild birds and continued to circulate and mutate in geese and ducks in southeastern China. Since this occurrence, new antigenic variants that are highly pathogenic for humans as well as wild, domestic, and exotic waterfowl continue to appear in Hong Kong. This virus is spreading across Asia, and is encroaching upon Europe and other continents. Wild birds are now considered as the main reservoir of H5N1 virus. Humans become infected with this H5N1 virus usually via close contact with infected birds or a highly contaminated environment. The very low transmissibility of this virus prevented further person-to-person dissemination in spite of the complete absence of immunity in the human population to H5N1 viruses. Viruses of the H5N1 subtype are characterized by an exceptionally high pathogenicity for humans. The cause of the viral virulence is not known so far; however, several virulence factors are considered. The unprecedented capability of H5N1 viruses to kill humans intensifies the concern about its pandemic potential with catastrophic consequences. The effectiveness of existing antivirals as well as vaccines for humans and birds are reviewed.

Controlling influenza virus replication by inhibiting its proton channel

Influenza A and viruses encode minimalistic proton-selective ion channels known as A/M2 and BM2, respectively. The A/M2 channel is the target of the antiviral drug, amantadine. The structural and mechanistic aspects of proton conductance of the viral ion channels are described and the review makes a case for the development of more effective antivirals.

Priority setting for pandemic influenza: an analysis of national preparedness plans

The authors provide a targeted review of national pandemic influenza plans from the developed and developing world, describing national variations in prioritization of vaccines and antiviral medications.