The consequence of tree pests and diseases for ecosystem services

Survival of Brenneria goodwinii and Gibbsiella quercinecans, associated with acute oak decline, in rainwater and forest soil

Acute oak decline (AOD) affects native UK oak species causing rapid decline and mortality in as little as five years. A major symptom of AOD is black weeping stem lesions associated with bacterial phytopathogens, Brenneria goodwinii and Gibbsiella quercinecans. However, there is limited knowledge on the ecological and environmental reservoirs of these phytopathogens. Rainwater and soils are common reservoirs of plant pathogens in a forest environment; therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the survival of B. goodwinii and G. quercinecans in vitro when inoculated into rainwater and forest soil using a combination of agar-based colony counts and gyrB gene-targeted quantitative PCR (qPCR). Brenneria goodwinii lost viability on inoculation into soil and rainwater, but was detectable at low abundance in soil for 28 days using qPCR, suggesting a limited ability to persist outside of the host, potentially in a viable but non-culturable (VBNC) state. Conversely, Gibbsiella quercinecans, was re-isolated from rainwater for the entire duration of the experiment (84 days) and was re-isolated from forest soil after 28 days, with qPCR analysis corroborating these trends. These data demonstrate that B. goodwinii is unable to survive in forest soils and rainwater, suggesting that it may be an endosymbiont of oak trees, whereas G. quercinecans remains viable in soil and rainwater biomes, suggesting a broad ecological distribution. These data advance understanding of the potential epidemiology of AOD-associated bacteria and their ecological reservoirs, thus increasing the overall knowledge of the pathology of AOD, which assists the development of future management strategies.

The Threat of the Combined Effect of Biotic and Abiotic Stress Factors in Forestry Under a Changing Climate

Plants encounter several biotic and abiotic stresses, usually in combination. This results in major economic losses in agriculture and forestry every year. Climate change aggravates the adverse effects of combined stresses and increases such losses. Trees suffer even more from the recurrence of biotic and abiotic stress combinations owing to their long lifecycle. Despite the effort to study the damage from individual stress factors, less attention has been given to the effect of the complex interactions between multiple biotic and abiotic stresses. In this review, we assess the importance, impact, and mitigation strategies of climate change driven interactions between biotic and abiotic stresses in forestry. The ecological and economic importance of biotic and abiotic stresses under different combinations is highlighted by their contribution to the decline of the global forest area through their direct and indirect roles in forest loss and to the decline of biodiversity resulting from local extinction of endangered species of trees, emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds, and reduction in the productivity and quality of forest products and services. The abiotic stress factors such as high temperature and drought increase forest disease and insect pest outbreaks, decrease the growth of trees, and cause tree mortality. Reports of massive tree mortality events caused by "hotter droughts" are increasing all over the world, affecting several genera of trees including some of the most important genera in plantation forests, such as Pine, Poplar, and Eucalyptus. While the biotic stress factors such as insect pests, pathogens, and parasitic plants have been reported to be associated with many of these mortality events, a considerable number of the reports have not taken into account the contribution of such biotic factors. The available mitigation strategies also tend to undermine the interactive effect under combined stresses. Thus, this discussion centers on mitigation strategies based on research and innovation, which build on models previously used to curb individual stresses.

Federal legal authorities for the early detection of and rapid response to invasive species

The ability of federal agencies to carry out actions or programs is based on their legal authorities. Efforts to improve federal capacities for the early detection of and rapid response to invasive species (EDRR) require careful delineation of legal authorities, regulations, and policies that would enable or limit EDRR. Building on information provided by federal agencies and an inspection of the US Code and the Code of Federal Regulations, we review and identify relevant authorities to determine federal legal capacities, gaps, and inconsistencies to address EDRR. The EDRR process can be examined in the context of four categories, including (1) explicit invasive species authorities, (2) emergency authorities that could be triggered during a crisis or serve as models for enhanced invasive species EDRR authorities, (3) supporting authorities that could be used under agency discretion, and (4) constraining authorities and legal requirements. Although the Plant Protection Act and the Animal Health Protection Act are comprehensive authorities that address the detection of and response to organisms that threaten plant and livestock health, there is no single authority that encompasses EDRR for all invasive species. Rather, there is a patchwork of authorities that unevenly addresses various aspects of EDRR. In addition to gaps in authority, EDRR efforts could be constrained by environmental compliance, as well as subnational governance and private rights. Although some of these gaps could be closed through legislation, others need to be addressed using the discretionary power of federal agencies and their ability to establish cooperation mechanisms with private and subnational entities.

Urban trees facilitate the establishment of non-native forest insects

Cities, due to the presence of ports and airports and the high diversity of trees in streets, parks, and gardens, may play an important role for the introduction of invasive forest pests. We hypothesize that areas of urban forest facilitate the establishment of non-native forest pests. Based on scientific literature and a pan-European database on non-native species feeding on woody plants, we analysed where the first detections occurred in European countries. We collected site data for 137 first detections in Europe and 508 first European country-specific records. We also estimated the percentage of tree cover and suitable habitat (green areas with trees) in buffers around detection points. The large majority of first records (89% for first record in Europe and 88% for first records in a European country) were found in cities or suburban areas. Only 7% of the cases were in forests far from cities. The probability of occurrence decreased sharply with distance from the city. The probability to be detected in urban areas was higher for sap feeders, gall makers, and seed or fruit feeders (>90%) than for bark and wood borers (81%). Detection sites in cities were highly diverse, including public parks, street trees, university campus, arboreta, zoos, and botanical gardens. The average proportion of suitable habitat was less than 10% in urban areas where the species were detected. Further, more than 72% of the cases occurred in sites with less than 20% of tree cover. Hotspots of first detection were identified along the coastal regions of the Mediterranean and Atlantic, and near industrial areas of central Europe. We conclude that urban trees are main facilitators for the establishment of non-native forest pests, and that cities should thus be intensely surveyed. Moreover, as urban areas are highly populated, the involvement of citizens is highly recommended.

When the Bough Breaks: How Do Local Authorities in the UK Assess Risk and Prepare a Response to Ash Dieback?

Ash dieback Hymenoscyphus fraxineus (T. Kowalski), is an alien fungal disease probably introduced to Europe from Asia that currently presents a significant threat to native ash (Fraxinus L. spp.). In the United Kingdom a large proportion of ash trees are found outside of woodlands. This means that a wide diversity of land owners and managers are stakeholders in the response to ash dieback. Local authorities (local government units) hold responsibility for managing ash trees along the highways and other public sites, with a focus on maintaining public health and safety. Developing local action plans (LAPs) for ash dieback is promoted by the government as way for local authorities to plan an effective strategic response at a landscape scale. However, risk assessment frameworks and the knowledge about ash dieback that is needed for quality decision-making at this level is still lacking. The scientific uncertainty around ash dieback progression, mortality rates, and the hazards presented by the trees at different stages of infection present knowledge problems. The research aims to (i) develop and evaluate an approach to addressing ash dieback suited to local authorities across the United Kingdom, and (ii) address the research gaps surrounding the local authority approaches to risk assessment and overcoming “knowledge problems.” Our hypothesis is that action research can be used to develop an effective risk assessment framework and knowledge tools that can improve decision-making. Our research questions in support of these objectives are: (i) How do local authorities perceive, assess, and plan for risks? (ii) What information and knowledge do local authorities need to assess and manage the specific risks of ash dieback? Lastly, (iii) what processes drive the local authorities toward preparing and implementing LAPs? Data collection occurred between 2015–2019 and included: deliberative co-production and validation workshops, two survey questionnaires, and evaluative semi-structured interviews (SSIs). Local authorities were shown to assess risk and proportionality of response to ash dieback through processes of deliberative social learning mixing opinion, scientific and practice-based knowledge to reach a consensus over the methods and knowledge that would be used in decision-making. Placing ash dieback on corporate risk registers that cut across the multiple departments dealing with the problem facilitated political approval, action planning, and budget allocation. Generating locally specific knowledge and finding the resources and personnel to drive forward strategic planning and implementation were key to landscape scale responses and ratifying LAPs. Collaborative action research working on ways of assessing, learning, and responding to tree pests and diseases offer an important approach to problem-solving and developing responses at the landscape scale.

Are traded forest tree seeds a potential source of nonnative pests?

The international seed trade is considered relatively safe from a phytosanitary point of view and is therefore less regulated than trade in other plants for planting. However, the pests carried by traded seeds are not well known. We assessed insects and fungi in 58 traded seed lots of 11 gymnosperm and angiosperm tree species from North America, Europe, and Asia. Insects were detected by X-raying and molecular methods. The fungal community was characterized using high-throughput sequencing (HTS) and by growing fungi on non-selective agar. About 30% of the seed lots contained insect larvae. Gymnosperms contained mostly hymenopteran (Megastigmus spp.) and dipteran (Cecidomyiidae) larvae, while angiosperms contained lepidopteran (Cydia latiferreana) and coleopteran (Curculio spp.) larvae. HTS indicated the presence of fungi in all seed lots and fungi grew on non-selective agar from 96% of the seed lots. Fungal abundance and diversity were much higher than insect diversity and abundance, especially in angiosperm seeds. Almost 50% of all fungal exact sequence variants (ESVs) found in angiosperms were potential pathogens, in comparison with around 30% of potentially pathogenic ESVs found in gymnosperms. The results of this study indicate that seeds may pose a greater risk of pest introduction than previously believed or accounted for. A rapid risk assessment suggests that only a small number of species identified in this study is of phytosanitary concern. However, more research is needed to enable better risk assessment, especially to increase knowledge about the potential for transmission of fungi to seedlings and the host range and impact of identified species.

Modeling the Potential Global Distribution of Phenacoccus madeirensis Green under Various Climate Change Scenarios

The Madeira mealybug, Phenacoccus madeirensis Green, is a serious invasive pest that does significant damage to more than 120 genera of host plants from 51 families in more than 81 countries. However, the potential distribution range of this pest is unclear, which could hamper control and eradication efforts. In the current study, MaxEnt models were developed to forecast the current and future distribution of the Madeira mealybug around the world. Moreover, the future potential distribution of this invasive species was projected for the 2050s and 2070s under three different climate change scenarios (HADGEM2-AO, GFDL-CM3, and MIROC5) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP-2.6 and RCP-8.5). The final model indicates that the Madeira mealybug has a highly suitable range for the continents of Asia, Europe, and Africa, as well as South America and North America, where this species has already been recorded. Potential expansions or reductions in distribution were also simulated under different future climatic conditions. Our study also suggested that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9) was the most important factor and explained 46.9% of the distribution model. The distribution model from the current and future predictions can enhance the strategic planning of agricultural and forestry organization by identifying regions that will need to develop integrated pest management programs to manage Madeira mealybug, especially for some highly suitable areas, such as South Asia and Europe. Moreover, the results of this research will help governments to optimize investment in the control and management of the Madeira mealybug by identifying regions that are or will become suitable for infestations.

Using Q Methodology to Explore Risk Perception and Public Concern about Tree Pests and Diseases: The Case of Ash Dieback

This paper seeks to address the need for a more nuanced understanding of public perceptions of risk-related events by investigating the nature of and drivers for a ‘concerned public’ to an environmental issue, using the case study of the ash dieback outbreak in the UK. Q Methodology, an approach that combines both quantitative and qualitative data through factor analysis to identify different ways of thinking about a particular issue, was used to investigate the subjective response of local publics to ash dieback in East Kent, England, one of the early outbreak locations. Five narratives are identified, distinguishing perceptions of risk and management preferences: (1) call for better biosecurity; (2) resilient nature and techno-scientific solutions; (3) fatalistic; (4) disinterested; and (5) pro-active citizens. Four narratives demonstrated concern about the impacts of ash dieback on woodland ecosystems, but beliefs about whether the disease arrived in the UK on infected imported nursery stock or on windblown spores varied. The results of this study contribute to improving understanding of the drivers of differing public perceptions of tree health risks, an important consideration for designing socially acceptable strategies for managing tree pests and diseases, and other environmental risks, in the future.

Are We Defending the Indefensible? Reflecting on Policy and Practice Around ‘the Border’ in Plant Biosecurity for Tree Health

The challenges to forest health from climate change, globalization, contemporary trade practices and new recreational patterns require effective biosecurity. We asked: How is the biosecurity border for tree health understood and enacted by state and non-state actors? What are the consequences for tree health? Semi-structured interviews (N = 10) were conducted with scientists and other relevant actors (N = 21). The border was understood variously as: a biophysical boundary, often the coast; a geopolitical boundary, usually of the European Union; the points of main inspection focus; dispersed nodes of inspection; a ‘pre-border’ outside of UK; or by the location of detection activities. A wide range of state, non-state and hybrid groups are engaged in border practices. These practices have been altered due to trade and climate changes, are subject to cost and resource priorities and reflect particular knowledge flows and the biological nature of the agents. We suggest that there is an ‘everyone’ as well as ‘everywhere’ border that demands clarification of risks, roles and responsibilities, and we offer practical recommendations. We conclude that tree health border challenges are a manifestation of wider sustainability issues that enable us to explore human–nature relationships, democratic engagement and the pursuit of more sustainable futures.

Biomass losses resulting from insect and disease invasions in US forests

Worldwide, forests are increasingly affected by nonnative insects and diseases, some of which cause substantial tree mortality. Forests in the United States have been invaded by a particularly large number (>450) of tree-feeding pest species. While information exists about the ecological impacts of certain pests, region-wide assessments of the composite ecosystem impacts of all species are limited. Here we analyze 92,978 forest plots distributed across the conterminous United States to estimate biomass loss associated with elevated mortality rates caused by the 15 most damaging nonnative forest pests. We find that these species combined caused an additional (i.e., above background levels) tree mortality rate of 5.53 TgC per year. Compensation, in the form of increased growth and recruitment of nonhost species, was not detectable when measured across entire invaded ranges but does occur several decades following pest invasions. In addition, 41.1% of the total live forest biomass in the conterminous United States is at risk of future loss from these 15 pests. These results indicate that forest pest invasions, driven primarily by globalization, represent a huge risk to US forests and have significant impacts on carbon dynamics.

Applying optimal control theory to complex epidemiological models to inform real-world disease management

Mathematical models provide a rational basis to inform how, where and when to control disease. Assuming an accurate spatially explicit simulation model can be fitted to spread data, it is straightforward to use it to test the performance of a range of management strategies. However, the typical complexity of simulation models and the vast set of possible controls mean that only a small subset of all possible strategies can ever be tested. An alternative approach-optimal control theory-allows the best control to be identified unambiguously. However, the complexity of the underpinning mathematics means that disease models used to identify this optimum must be very simple. We highlight two frameworks for bridging the gap between detailed epidemic simulations and optimal control theory: open-loop and model predictive control. Both these frameworks approximate a simulation model with a simpler model more amenable to mathematical analysis. Using an illustrative example model, we show the benefits of using feedback control, in which the approximation and control are updated as the epidemic progresses. Our work illustrates a new methodology to allow the insights of optimal control theory to inform practical disease management strategies, with the potential for application to diseases of humans, animals and plants. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.

Chestnuts bred for blight resistance depart nursery with distinct fungal rhizobiomes

Restoration of the American chestnut (Castanea dentata) is underway using backcross breeding that confers chestnut blight disease resistance from Asian chestnuts (most often Castanea mollissima) to the susceptible host. Successful restoration will depend on blight resistance and performance of hybrid seedlings, which can be impacted by below-ground fungal communities. We compared fungal communities in roots and rhizospheres (rhizobiomes) of nursery-grown, 1-year-old chestnut seedlings from different genetic families of American chestnut, Chinese chestnut, and hybrids from backcross breeding generations as well as those present in the nursery soil. We specifically focused on the ectomycorrhizal (EcM) fungi that may facilitate host performance in the nursery and aid in seedling establishment after outplanting. Seedling rhizobiomes and nursery soil communities were distinct and seedlings recruited heterogeneous communities from shared nursery soil. The rhizobiomes included EcM fungi as well as endophytes, putative pathogens, and likely saprobes, but their relative proportions varied widely within and among the chestnut families. Notably, hybrid seedlings that hosted few EcM fungi hosted a large proportion of potential pathogens and endophytes, with possible consequences in outplanting success. Our data show that chestnut seedlings recruit divergent rhizobiomes and depart nurseries with communities that may facilitate or compromise the seedling performance in the field.

Tree diversity regulates forest pest invasion

Nonnative pests often cause cascading ecological impacts, leading to detrimental socioeconomic consequences; however, how plant diversity may influence insect and disease invasions remains unclear. High species diversity in host communities may promote pest invasions by providing more niches (i.e., facilitation), but it can also diminish invasion success because low host dominance may make it more difficult for pests to establish (i.e., dilution). Most studies to date have focused on small-scale, experimental, or individual pest/disease species, while large-scale empirical studies, especially in natural ecosystems, are extremely rare. Using subcontinental-level data, we examined the role of tree diversity on pest invasion across the conterminous United States and found that the tree-pest diversity relationships are hump-shaped. Pest diversity increases with tree diversity at low tree diversity (because of facilitation or amplification) and is reduced at higher tree diversity (as a result of dilution). Thus, tree diversity likely regulates forest pest invasion through both facilitation and dilution that operate simultaneously, but their relative strengths vary with overall diversity. Our findings suggest the role of native species diversity in regulating nonnative pest invasions.

Dynamic Responses of Ground-Dwelling Invertebrate Communities to Disturbance in Forest Ecosystems

In forest ecosystems, natural and anthropogenic disturbances alter canopy structure, understory vegetation, amount of woody debris, and the properties of litter and soil layers. The magnitude of these environmental changes is context-dependent and determined by the properties of the disturbance, such as the frequency, intensity, duration, and extent. Therefore, disturbances can dynamically impact forest communities over time, including populations of ground-dwelling invertebrates that regulate key ecosystem processes. We propose conceptual models that describe the dynamic temporal effects of canopy gap formation and coarse woody debris accumulation following disturbances caused by invasive insects, wind, and salvage logging, and their impacts on ground-dwelling invertebrate communities. Within this framework, predictions are generated, literature on ground-dwelling invertebrate communities is synthesized, and pertinent knowledge gaps identified.

Advanced spectroscopy-based phenotyping offers a potential solution to the ash dieback epidemic

Natural and urban forests worldwide are increasingly threatened by global change resulting from human-mediated factors, including invasions by lethal exotic pathogens. Ash dieback (ADB), incited by the alien invasive fungus Hymenoscyphus fraxineus, has caused large-scale population decline of European ash (Fraxinus excelsior) across Europe, and is threatening to functionally extirpate this tree species. Genetically controlled host resistance is a key element to ensure European ash survival and to restore this keystone species where it has been decimated. We know that a low proportion of the natural population of European ash expresses heritable, quantitative resistance that is stable across environments. To exploit this resource for breeding and restoration efforts, tools that allow for effective and efficient, rapid identification and deployment of superior genotypes are now sorely needed. Here we show that Fourier-transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy of phenolic extracts from uninfected bark tissue, coupled with a model based on soft independent modelling of class analogy (SIMCA), can robustly discriminate between ADB-resistant and susceptible European ash. The model was validated with populations of European ash grown across six European countries. Our work demonstrates that this approach can efficiently advance the effort to save such fundamental forest resource in Europe and elsewhere.

Simulating the recent impacts of multiple biotic disturbances on forest carbon cycling across the United States

Biotic disturbances (BDs, for example, insects, pathogens, and wildlife herbivory) substantially affect boreal and temperate forest ecosystems globally. However, accurate impact assessments comprising larger spatial scales are lacking to date although these are critically needed given the expected disturbance intensification under a warming climate. Hence, our quantitative knowledge on current and future BD impacts, for example, on forest carbon (C) cycling, is strongly limited. We extended a dynamic global vegetation model to simulate ecosystem response to prescribed tree mortality and defoliation due to multiple biotic agents across United States forests during the period 1997-2015, and quantified the BD-induced vegetation C loss, that is, C fluxes from live vegetation to dead organic matter pools. Annual disturbance fractions separated by BD type (tree mortality and defoliation) and agent (bark beetles, defoliator insects, other insects, pathogens, and other biotic agents) were calculated at 0.5° resolution from aerial-surveyed data and applied within the model. Simulated BD-induced C fluxes totaled 251.6 Mt C (annual mean: 13.2 Mt C year^-1 , SD ±7.3 Mt C year^-1 between years) across the study domain, to which tree mortality contributed 95% and defoliation 5%. Among BD agents, bark beetles caused most C fluxes (61%), and total insect-induced C fluxes were about five times larger compared to non-insect agents, for example, pathogens and wildlife. Our findings further demonstrate that BD-induced C cycle impacts (i) displayed high spatio-temporal variability, (ii) were dominated by different agents across BD types and regions, and (iii) were comparable in magnitude to fire-induced impacts. This study provides the first ecosystem model-based assessment of BD-induced impacts on forest C cycling at the continental scale and going beyond single agent-host systems, thus allowing for comparisons across regions, BD types, and agents. Ultimately, a perspective on the potential and limitations of a more process-based incorporation of multiple BDs in ecosystem models is offered.

Invasive alien pests threaten the carbon stored in Europe's forests

Forests mitigate climate change by sequestering large amounts of carbon (C). However, forest C storage is not permanent, and large pulses of tree mortality can thwart climate mitigation efforts. Forest pests are increasingly redistributed around the globe. Yet, the potential future impact of invasive alien pests on the forest C cycle remains uncertain. Here we show that large parts of Europe could be invaded by five detrimental alien pests already under current climate. Climate change increases the potential range of alien pests particularly in Northern and Eastern Europe. We estimate the live C at risk from a potential future invasion as 1027 Tg C (10% of the European total), with a C recovery time of 34 years. We show that the impact of introduced pests could be as severe as the current natural disturbance regime in Europe, calling for increased efforts to halt the introduction and spread of invasive alien species.

Invasive alien pests can cause large-scale forest mortality and release carbon stored in forests. Here the authors show that climate change increases the potential range of alien pests and that their impact on the carbon cycle could be as severe as the current natural disturbance regime in Europe’s forests.

Biotic Factors Affecting Ecosystem Services in Urban and Peri-Urban Forests in Italy: The Role of Introduced and Impending Pathogens and Pests

The present-day phytosanitary disasters caused by biological invasions are afflicting urban and peri-urban forest stands worldwide, as well as the varied services they normally provide. In Europe, we are witnessing an alarming situation due to an increasing introduction of infectious diseases and pests. The authors present an up-to-date list of alien microbial pathogens and insect pests affecting urban greening that have been accidentally imported in Italy or that are likely to be introduced. Information about the biology, epidemiology, ethology, and control of these invasive organisms is provided. For each species, the current geographical distribution, including newly-colonized areas, is also given, as well as the chronological progression of its occurrence. Particular detail is used for describing symptoms—the key diagnostic elements for appropriate and timely phytosanitary management. This paper will benefit urban forest management, which is a crucial factor in maintaining the social and ecological viability of urban green spaces, as well as ecosystem services. The importance of engaging citizens in community-based monitoring of urban greenspaces for tracking the location, abundance, and pathways of invasive pathogens and pests will also be touched upon.

Phenotypic interactions between tree hosts and invasive forest pathogens in the light of globalization and climate change

Invasive pathogens can cause considerable damage to forest ecosystems. Lack of coevolution is generally thought to enable invasive pathogens to bypass the defence and/or recognition systems in the host. Although mostly true, this argument fails to predict intermittent outcomes in space and time, underlining the need to include the roles of the environment and the phenotype in host-pathogen interactions when predicting disease impacts. We emphasize the need to consider host-tree imbalances from a phenotypic perspective, considering the lack of coevolutionary and evolutionary history with the pathogen and the environment, respectively. We describe how phenotypic plasticity and plastic responses to environmental shifts may become maladaptive when hosts are faced with novel pathogens. The lack of host-pathogen and environmental coevolution are aligned with two global processes currently driving forest damage: globalization and climate change, respectively. We suggest that globalization and climate change act synergistically, increasing the chances of both genotypic and phenotypic imbalances. Short moves on the same continent are more likely to be in balance than if the move is from another part of the world. We use Gremmeniella abietina outbreaks in Sweden to exemplify how host-pathogen phenotypic interactions can help to predict the impacts of specific invasive and emergent diseases.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'.

Food system consequences of a fungal disease epidemic in a major crop

Fungal diseases are major threats to the most important crops upon which humanity depends. Were there to be a major epidemic that severely reduced yields, its effects would spread throughout the globalized food system. To explore these ramifications, we use a partial equilibrium economic model of the global food system (IMPACT) to study a hypothetical severe but short-lived epidemic that reduces rice yields in the countries affected by 80%. We modelled a succession of epidemic scenarios of increasing severity, starting with the disease in a single country in southeast Asia and ending with the pathogen present in most of eastern Asia. The epidemic and subsequent crop losses led to substantially increased global rice prices. However, as long as global commodity trade was unrestricted and able to respond fast enough, the effects on individual calorie consumption were, to a large part, mitigated. Some of the worse effects were projected to be experienced by poor net-rice importing countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which were not affected directly by the disease but suffered because of higher rice prices. We critique the assumptions of our models and explore political economic pressures to restrict trade at times of crisis. We finish by arguing for the importance of 'stress-testing' the resilience of the global food system to crop disease and other shocks.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'.

Quantifying resilience of multiple ecosystem services and biodiversity in a temperate forest landscape

Resilience is increasingly being considered as a new paradigm of forest management among scientists, practitioners, and policymakers. However, metrics of resilience to environmental change are lacking. Faced with novel disturbances, forests may be able to sustain existing ecosystem services and biodiversity by exhibiting resilience, or alternatively these attributes may undergo either a linear or nonlinear decline. Here we provide a novel quantitative approach for assessing forest resilience that focuses on three components of resilience, namely resistance, recovery, and net change, using a spatially explicit model of forest dynamics. Under the pulse set scenarios, we explored the resilience of nine ecosystem services and four biodiversity measures following a one‐off disturbance applied to an increasing percentage of forest area. Under the pulse + press set scenarios, the six disturbance intensities explored during the pulse set were followed by a continuous disturbance. We detected thresholds in net change under pulse + press scenarios for the majority of the ecosystem services and biodiversity measures, which started to decline sharply when disturbance affected >40% of the landscape. Thresholds in net change were not observed under the pulse scenarios, with the exception of timber volume and ground flora species richness. Thresholds were most pronounced for aboveground biomass, timber volume with respect to the ecosystem services, and ectomycorrhizal fungi and ground flora species richness with respect to the biodiversity measures. Synthesis and applications. The approach presented here illustrates how the multidimensionality of stability research in ecology can be addressed and how forest resilience can be estimated in practice. Managers should adopt specific management actions to support each of the three components of resilience separately, as these may respond differently to disturbance. In addition, management interventions aiming to deliver resilience should incorporate an assessment of both pulse and press disturbances to ensure detection of threshold responses to disturbance, so that appropriate management interventions can be identified.

Microbiome and infectivity studies reveal complex polyspecies tree disease in Acute Oak Decline

Decline-diseases are complex and becoming increasingly problematic to tree health globally. Acute Oak Decline (AOD) is characterized by necrotic stem lesions and galleries of the bark-boring beetle, Agrilus biguttatus, and represents a serious threat to oak. Although multiple novel bacterial species and Agrilus galleries are associated with AOD lesions, the causative agent(s) are unknown. The AOD pathosystem therefore provides an ideal model for a systems-based research approach to address our hypothesis that AOD lesions are caused by a polymicrobial complex. Here we show that three bacterial species, Brenneria goodwinii, Gibbsiella quercinecans and Rahnella victoriana, are consistently abundant in the lesion microbiome and possess virulence genes used by canonical phytopathogens that are expressed in AOD lesions. Individual and polyspecies inoculations on oak logs and trees demonstrated that B. goodwinii and G. quercinecans cause tissue necrosis and, in combination with A. biguttatus, produce the diagnostic symptoms of AOD. We have proved a polybacterial cause of AOD lesions, providing new insights into polymicrobial interactions and tree disease. This work presents a novel conceptual and methodological template for adapting Koch’s postulates to address the role of microbial communities in disease.

Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios

Pine wilt disease (PWD) constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22). For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area). Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD.

Confirmation of independent introductions of an exotic plant pathogen of Cornus species, Discula destructiva, on the east and west coasts of North America

Cornus florida (flowering dogwood) and C. nuttallii (Pacific dogwood) are North American native tree species that belong to the big-bracted group of dogwoods. Cornus species are highly valued for their ornamental characteristics, and have fruits that contain high fat content for animals. Also, they are an important understory tree in natural forests. Dogwood anthracnose, caused by Discula destructiva, was observed in the late 1970s on the east and west coasts of the United States and by 1991 had quickly spread throughout most of the native ranges of C. florida and C. nuttalli. We investigated the genetic diversity and population structure of 93 D. destructiva isolates using 47 microsatellite loci developed from the sequenced genome of the type strain of D. destructiva. Clone-corrected data indicated low genetic diversity and the presence of four genetic clusters that corresponded to two major geographic areas, the eastern United States and the Pacific Northwest, and to the two collection time periods when the isolates were collected (pre- and post-1993). Linkage disequilibrium was present in five out of six subpopulations, suggesting that the fungus only reproduced asexually. Evidence of population bottlenecks was indicated across four identified genetic clusters, and was probably the result of the limited number of founding individuals on both coasts. These results support the hypothesis that D. destructiva is an exotic pathogen with independent introductions on the east and west coasts of North America. We also tested the cross-amplification of these microsatellite primers to other Discula species. Genomic DNA from 17 isolates of four other Discula species and two isolates of Juglanconis species (formerly Melanconis species) were amplified by 17 of 47 primer pairs. These primers may be useful for investigating the genetic diversity and population structure of these Discula species.

Episodic Canopy Structural Transformations and Biological Invasion in a Hawaiian Forest

The remaining native forests on the Hawaiian Islands have been recognized as threatened by changing climate, increasing insect outbreak, new deadly pathogens, and growing populations of canopy structure-altering invasive species. The objective of this study was to assess long-term, net changes to upper canopy structure in sub-montane forests on the eastern slope of Mauna Kea volcano, Hawai'i, in the context of continuing climate events, insect outbreaks, and biological invasion. We used high-resolution multi-temporal Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data to quantify near-decadal net changes in forest canopy height and gap distributions at a critical transition between alien invaded lowland and native sub-montane forest at the end of a recent drought and host-specific insect (Scotorythra paludicola) outbreak. We found that sub-montane forests have experienced a net loss in average canopy height, and therefore structure and aboveground carbon stock. Additionally, where invasive alien tree species co-dominate with native trees, the upper canopy structure became more homogeneous. Tracking the loss of forest canopy height and spatial variation with airborne LiDAR is a cost-effective way to monitor forest canopy health, and to track and quantify ecological impacts of invasive species through space and time.

A signature of tree health? Shifts in the microbiome and the ecological drivers of horse chestnut bleeding canker disease

Host susceptibility to pathogens can be shaped by genetic, ecological, and evolutionary factors. The ability to predict the spread of disease therefore requires an integrated understanding of these factors, including effects of pests on pathogen growth and competition between pathogens and commensal microbiota for host resources. We examined interactions between the leaf-mining moth Cameraria ohridella, the bacterial causal agent of bleeding canker disease Pseudomonas syringae pv aesculi, and the bark-associated microbiota of horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum) trees. Through surveys of > 900 trees from 60 sites in the UK, we tested for ecological or life history predictors of leaf miner infestation, bleeding canker, or coinfection. Using culture-independent sequencing, we then compared the bark microbiomes from 46 trees to measure the association between microbiome composition and key ecological variables, including the severity of disease. Both pest and pathogen were found to respond to tree characteristics, but neither explained damage inflicted by the other. However, we found a clear loss of microbial diversity and associated shift in microbiome composition of trees as a function of disease. These results show a link between bark-associated microbiota and tree health that introduces the intriguing possibility that tree microbiota play key roles in the spread of disease.

Awareness, concern and willingness to adopt biosecure behaviours: public perceptions of invasive tree pests and pathogens in the UK

The growing incidence of invasive tree pest and disease outbreaks is recognised as an increasing threat to ecosystem services and human wellbeing. Linked to global trade, human movement and climate change, a number of outbreaks have attracted high public and media attention. However, there is surprisingly little evidence characterising the nature of public attentiveness to these events, nor how publics might respond to evolving outbreaks and the management actions taken. This paper presents findings from an online questionnaire involving 1334 respondents nationally-representative of the British public to assess awareness, concern and willingness to adopt biosecure behaviours. Despite revealing low levels of awareness and knowledge, the results indicate that the British public is concerned about the health of trees, forests and woodlands and is moderately willing to adopt biosecure behaviours. A key finding is that membership of environmental organisations and strong place identity are likely to engender higher awareness and levels of concern about tree pests and diseases. Further, those who visit woodlands regularly are likely to be more aware than non-visitors, and gardeners are more likely to be concerned than non-gardeners. Women, older respondents, those with strong place identity and dependence, members of environmental organisations, woodland visitors and gardeners were most likely to express a willingness to adopt biosecure behaviours. A comparison with findings from a survey conducted by the authors 3 years previously shows a decline over time in awareness, concern and willingness.

Responses of Ground-Dwelling Invertebrates to Gap Formation and Accumulation of Woody Debris from Invasive Species, Wind, and Salvage Logging

Natural and anthropogenic disturbances alter canopy structure, understory vegetation, amount of woody debris, and the litter and soil layers in forest ecosystems. These environmental changes impact forest communities, including ground-dwelling invertebrates that are key regulators of ecosystem processes. Variation in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial scale of disturbances affect the magnitude of these environmental changes and how forest communities and ecosystems are impacted over time. We propose conceptual models that describe the dynamic temporal effects of disturbance caused by invasive insects, wind, and salvage logging on canopy gap formation and accumulation of coarse woody debris (CWD), and their impacts on ground-dwelling invertebrate communities. In the context of this framework, predictions are generated and their implications for ground-dwelling invertebrate communities are discussed.

Colonization behaviors of mountain pine beetle on novel hosts: Implications for range expansion into northeastern North America

As climates change, thermal limits may no longer constrain some native herbivores within their historical ranges. The mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, is a tree-killing bark beetle native to western North America that is currently expanding its range. Continued eastward expansion through the newly invaded and novel jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) trees of the Canadian boreal forest could result in exposure of several species of novel potential host pines common in northeastern North America to this oligophagous herbivore. Due to the tightly co-evolved relationship between mountain pine beetle and western pine hosts, in which the insect utilizes the defensive chemistry of the host to stimulate mass attacks, we hypothesized that lack of co-evolutionary association would affect the host attraction and acceptance behaviors of this insect among novel hosts, particularly those with little known historical association with an aggressive stem-infesting insect. We studied how beetle behavior differed among the various stages of colonization on newly cut logs of four novel potential pine host species; jack, red (P. resinosa Ait.), eastern white (P. strobus L.) and Scots (P. sylvestris L.) pines, as well as two historical hosts, ponderosa (P. ponderosa Dougl. ex. Laws. var. scopulorum Engelm.) and lodgepole (P. contorta Dougl. var. latifolia Engelm.) pines. Overall, we found that beetle colonization behaviors at each stage in the colonization process differ between pine hosts, likely due to differing chemical and physical bark traits. Pines without co-evolved constitutive defenses against mountain pine beetle exhibited reduced amounts of defensive monoterpenoid chemicals; however, such patterns also reduced beetle attraction and colonization. Neither chemical nor physical defenses fully defended trees against the various stages of host procurement that can result in tree colonization and death.

Risk-based management of invading plant disease

Effective control of plant disease remains a key challenge. Eradication attempts often involve removal of host plants within a certain radius of detection, targeting asymptomatic infection. Here we develop and test potentially more effective, epidemiologically motivated, control strategies, using a mathematical model previously fitted to the spread of citrus canker in Florida. We test risk-based control, which preferentially removes hosts expected to cause a high number of infections in the remaining host population. Removals then depend on past patterns of pathogen spread and host removal, which might be nontransparent to affected stakeholders. This motivates a variable radius strategy, which approximates risk-based control via removal radii that vary by location, but which are fixed in advance of any epidemic. Risk-based control outperforms variable radius control, which in turn outperforms constant radius removal. This result is robust to changes in disease spread parameters and initial patterns of susceptible host plants. However, efficiency degrades if epidemiological parameters are incorrectly characterised. Risk-based control including additional epidemiology can be used to improve disease management, but it requires good prior knowledge for optimal performance. This focuses attention on gaining maximal information from past epidemics, on understanding model transferability between locations and on adaptive management strategies that change over time.

Tree diversity reduces pest damage in mature forests across Europe

Forest pest damage is expected to increase with global change. Tree diversity could mitigate this impact, but unambiguous demonstration of the diversity–resistance relationship is lacking in semi-natural mature forests. We used a network of 208 forest plots sampled along two orthogonal gradients of increasing tree species richness and latitudes to assess total tree defoliation in Europe. We found a positive relationship between tree species richness and resistance to insect herbivores: overall damage to broadleaved species significantly decreased with the number of tree species in mature forests. This pattern of associational resistance was frequently observed across tree species and countries, irrespective of their climate. These findings confirm the greater potential of mixed forests to face future biotic disturbances in a changing world.