Climate-Related, Long-Term Faunal Changes in a California Rocky Intertidal Community

Chapter 3. Effects of climate change and commercial fishing on Atlantic cod Gadus morhua

During the course of the last century, populations of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua L. have undergone dramatic declines in abundance across their biogeographic range, leading to debate about the relative roles of climatic warming and overfishing in driving these changes. In this chapter, we describe the geographic distributions of this important predator of North Atlantic ecosystems and document extensive evidence for limitations of spatial movement and local adaptation from population genetic markers and electronic tagging. Taken together, this evidence demonstrates that knowledge of spatial population ecology is critical for evaluating the effects of climate change and commercial harvesting. To explore the possible effects of climate change on cod, we first describe thermal influences on individual physiology, growth, activity and maturation. We then evaluate evidence that temperature has influenced population-level processes including direct effects on recruitment through enhanced growth and activity, and indirect effects through changes to larval food resources. Although thermal regimes clearly define the biogeographic range of the species, and strongly influence many aspects of cod biology, the evidence that population declines across the North Atlantic are strongly linked to fishing activity is now overwhelming. Although there is considerable concern about low spawning stock biomasses, high levels of fishing activity continues in many areas. Even with reduced fishing effort, the potential for recovery from low abundance may be compromised by unfavourable climate and Allee effects. Current stock assessment and management approaches are reviewed, alongside newly advocated methods for monitoring stock status and recovery. However, it remains uncertain whether the rebuilding of cod to historic population sizes and demographic structures will be possible in a warmer North Atlantic.

The potential for predicted climate shifts to impact genetic landscapes of lizards in the South African Cape Floristic Region

The Cape Floristic Region (CFR) is well-known for its floral diversity, yet also contains a rich herpetofauna with >180 species, 28% of which are endemic. Recent studies conducted on CFR lizards indicated that phylogeographic patterns show some congruency, and that the western CFR shows higher overall diversity in the form of population and/or clade turnover. Here, we combine mitochondrial sequence data from two published (Bradypodion spp. and Agama atra) and one new dataset (Pedioplanis burchelli) to investigate whether geographic patterns of genetic diversity could be influenced by predicted climatic changes. We utilised Bayesian methodology and spatial genetic landscapes to establish broad-scale patterns and show that the western CFR is a contact zone for several clades in all three taxa, supporting the hypothesis of phylogeographic congruence. Current levels of gene flow are virtually zero between the western and eastern CFR. In the east, gene flow between populations is negligible at present but was probably stronger in the past given the present lack of strong genetic structure. Bioclimatic modelling predicted that climatically suitable areas within the CFR will decline for Bradypodion spp. and P. burchelli, with areas high in clade turnover loosing more climatically suitable areas than areas with low clade turnover. The models also predict that loss of climatic suitability may result in highly fragmented and patchy distributions, resulting in a greater loss of connectivity. In contrast, A. atra does not show significant climatic suitability losses overall, although it may experience localised losses (and gains). This species is not predicted to loose suitability in areas of high clade turnover. Thus, the incorporation of genetic data into climatic models has extended our knowledge on the vulnerability of these species given the predicted threat of landscape change.

Heat stress in the intertidal: comparing survival and growth of an invasive and native mussel under a variety of thermal conditions

In the rocky intertidal, organisms frequently experience a wide range of daily body temperatures depending on the stage of the tide and the time of day. In the intertidal, the thermal adaption of a species and its ability to invade a new region may be closely linked. In this research, the physiological effects of thermal stress in both low tide and high tide conditions are compared between Mytilus galloprovincialis, a worldwide mussel invader, and M. trossulus, a sibling species. In a seawater tank, mussels were exposed to one of three aerial temperature treatments (20, 25, 30 degrees C) in a cycle with one of two water temperatures (18, 12 degrees C). In 18 degrees C water, there was no effect of the aerial treatments on growth or survival in either species. In contrast, in 12 degrees C water, aerial exposure affected the survival and growth of both species. Growth and survival rates of M. galloprovincialis were higher in all conditions than the rates of M. trossulus, especially in the 18 degrees C water experiments and in the aerial exposure treatments of the winter 12 degrees C water experiment. M. galloprovincialis appears to be warm-adapted with regard to both low tide and high tide thermal stress. These results when paired with previous research suggest that as climates shift due to global warming, the temperatures favorable to M. galloprovincialis will become more common.

The cold but not hard fats in ectotherms: consequences of lipid restructuring on susceptibility of biological membranes to peroxidation, a review

The production of reactive oxygen species is a regular feature of life in the presence of oxygen. Some reactive oxygen species possess sufficient energy to initiate lipid peroxidation in biological membranes, self-propagating reactions with the potential to damage membranes by altering their physical properties and ultimately their function. Two of the most prominent patterns of lipid restructuring in membranes of ectotherms involve contents of polyunsaturated fatty acids and ratios of the abundant phospholipids, phosphatidylcholine and phosphatidylethanolamine. Since polyunsaturated fatty acids and phosphatidylethanolamine are particularly vulnerable to oxidation, it is likely that higher contents of these lipids at low body temperature elevate the inherent susceptibility of membranes to lipid peroxidation. Although membranes from animals living at low body temperatures may be more prone to oxidation, the generation of reactive oxygen species and lipid peroxidation are sensitive to temperature. These scenarios raise the possibility that membrane susceptibility to lipid peroxidation is conserved at physiological temperatures. Reduced levels of polyunsaturated fatty acids and phosphatidylethanolamine may protect membranes at warm temperatures from deleterious oxidations when rates of reactive oxygen species production and lipid peroxidation are relatively high. At low temperatures, enhanced susceptibility may ensure sufficient lipid peroxidation for cellular processes that require lipid oxidation products.

Hagfish embryos again: the end of a long drought

Hagfishes have long held a key place in discussions of early vertebrate evolution. Frustratingly, one basis for such discussions -- namely hagfish embryology -- is very incompletely known, because the embryos of these animals are notoriously difficult to obtain. Fortunately, a recent publication on a Far Eastern hagfish describes a workable procedure for obtaining embryos and then uses this precious material to show that the hagfish neural crest arises by cell delamination as in other vertebrates -- and not by epithelial outpouchings from the wall of the neural tube as previously claimed. Importantly, because hagfish embryos should now be available on a regular basis, the way is open for additional morphological and developmental genetic investigations to help evaluate existing evolutionary scenarios and perhaps suggest new ones.

Morphological and ecological determinants of body temperature of Geukensia demissa, the Atlantic ribbed mussel, and their effects on mussel mortality

Measurements of body temperatures in the field have shown that spatial and temporal patterns are often far more complex than previously anticipated, particularly in intertidal regions, where temperatures are driven by both marine and terrestrial climates. We examined the effects of body size, body position within the sediment, and microhabitat (presence or absence of Spartina alterniflora) on the body temperature of the mussel Geukensia demissa. We then used these data to develop a laboratory study exposing mussels to an artificial "stressful" day, mimicking field conditions as closely as possible. Results suggested that G. demissa mortality increases greatly at average daily peak temperatures of 45 degrees C and higher. When these temperatures were compared to field data collected in South Carolina in the summer of 2004, our data indicated that mussels likely experienced mortality due to high-temperature stress at this site during this period. Our results also showed that body position in the mud is the most important environmental modifier of body temperature. This experiment suggested that the presence of marsh grass leads to increases in body temperature by reducing convection, overwhelming the effects of shading. These data add to a growing body of evidence showing that small-scale thermal variability can surpass large-scale gradients.

Legacies of Land Use and Recent Climatic Change: The Small Mammal Fauna in the Mountains of Utah

Climate warming will continue alongside human modification of the landscape. Therefore, studying systems modified by land use may highlight factors that mitigate or exacerbate predicted biological responses to ongoing climate warming. Using historical museum specimen records and recent field surveys, I examine temporal patterns in the ecological dynamics of the small mammal fauna on five mountain ranges in central Utah over time intervals of 27-53 years during the past century. This landscape was heavily modified by livestock grazing early in the twentieth century and since then has witnessed a steady decline in grazing intensity. In general, at regional and landscape scales, species preferring mesic habitats increased in percent abundance, rank abundance, and rank occurrence over time. This result is opposite that predicted from regional climate trends and probably represents the recovery of forest conditions following a release over time from earlier periods of severe overgrazing. Decreased grazing intensity may thus mitigate the predicted biological effects of climatically driven environmental change for small mammals. This work also illustrates that abundance data gleaned from natural history collections can be an appropriate tool for assessing temporal changes in composition, especially when comparisons are drawn using time- and space-averaged data sets.

Climate change and the marine ecosystem of the western Antarctic Peninsula

The Antarctic Peninsula is experiencing one of the fastest rates of regional climate change on Earth, resulting in the collapse of ice shelves, the retreat of glaciers and the exposure of new terrestrial habitat. In the nearby oceanic system, winter sea ice in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas has decreased in extent by 10% per decade, and shortened in seasonal duration. Surface waters have warmed by more than 1 K since the 1950s, and the Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current has also warmed. Of the changes observed in the marine ecosystem of the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region to date, alterations in winter sea ice dynamics are the most likely to have had a direct impact on the marine fauna, principally through shifts in the extent and timing of habitat for ice-associated biota. Warming of seawater at depths below ca 100 m has yet to reach the levels that are biologically significant. Continued warming, or a change in the frequency of the flooding of CDW onto the WAP continental shelf may, however, induce sublethal effects that influence ecological interactions and hence food-web operation. The best evidence for recent changes in the ecosystem may come from organisms which record aspects of their population dynamics in their skeleton (such as molluscs or brachiopods) or where ecological interactions are preserved (such as in encrusting biota of hard substrata). In addition, a southwards shift of marine isotherms may induce a parallel migration of some taxa similar to that observed on land. The complexity of the Southern Ocean food web and the nonlinear nature of many interactions mean that predictions based on short-term studies of a small number of species are likely to be misleading.

Temporal variance reverses the impact of high mean intensity of stress in climate change experiments

Extreme climate events produce simultaneous changes to the mean and to the variance of climatic variables over ecological time scales. While several studies have investigated how ecological systems respond to changes in mean values of climate variables, the combined effects of mean and variance are poorly understood. We examined the response of low-shore assemblages of algae and invertebrates of rocky seashores in the northwest Mediterranean to factorial manipulations of mean intensity and temporal variance of aerial exposure, a type of disturbance whose intensity and temporal patterning of occurrence are predicted to change with changing climate conditions. Effects of variance were often in the opposite direction of those elicited by changes in the mean. Increasing aerial exposure at regular intervals had negative effects both on diversity of assemblages and on percent cover of filamentous and coarsely branched algae, but greater temporal variance drastically reduced these effects. The opposite was observed for the abundance of barnacles and encrusting coralline algae, where high temporal variance of aerial exposure either reversed a positive effect of mean intensity (barnacles) or caused a negative effect that did not occur under low temporal variance (encrusting algae). These results provide the first experimental evidence that changes in mean intensity and temporal variance of climatic variables affect natural assemblages of species interactively, suggesting that high temporal variance may mitigate the ecological impacts of ongoing and predicted climate changes.

TEMPORAL VARIANCE REVERSES THE IMPACT OF HIGH MEAN INTENSITY OF STRESS IN CLIMATE CHANGE EXPERIMENTS

Extreme climate events produce simultaneous changes to the mean and to the variance of climatic variables over ecological time scales. While several studies have investigated how ecological systems respond to changes in mean values of climate variables, the combined effects of mean and variance are poorly understood. We examined the response of low-shore assemblages of algae and invertebrates of rocky seashores in the northwest Mediterranean to factorial manipulations of mean intensity and temporal variance of aerial exposure, a type of disturbance whose intensity and temporal patterning of occurrence are predicted to change with changing climate conditions. Effects of variance were often in the opposite direction of those elicited by changes in the mean. Increasing aerial exposure at regular intervals had negative effects both on diversity of assemblages and on percent cover of filamentous and coarsely branched algae, but greater temporal variance drastically reduced these effects. The opposite was observed for the abundance of barnacles and encrusting coralline algae, where high temporal variance of aerial exposure either reversed a positive effect of mean intensity (barnacles) or caused a negative effect that did not occur under low temporal variance (encrusting algae). These results provide the first experimental evidence that changes in mean intensity and temporal variance of climatic variables affect natural assemblages of species interactively, suggesting that high temporal variance may mitigate the ecological impacts of ongoing and predicted climate changes.

Competing species in a changing climate: effects of recruitment disturbances on two interacting barnacle species

1. The climate is changing and data-based simulation models can be a valuable tool for predicting population response to such changes and investigate the mechanisms of population change. In this study, a data-based two-species matrix model was constructed to explore the possible effects of elevated sea surface temperature (i.e. climate change) on the interaction between open populations of the south Atlantic barnacle species Chthamalus montagui and the boreal species Semibalanus balanoides in the north-east Atlantic. 2. First, the model was used to perform an elasticity analysis to determine the relative importance of recruitment and survival in the interaction. Further, three scenarios of changes in recruitment, related to climate change, were investigated with model simulations: (i) increased frequencies of low recruitment for S. balanoides; (ii) increased frequencies of high recruitment for C. montagui; (iii) a combination of (i) and (ii). 3. Model simulations showed that in present environmental conditions, S. balanoides occupied most of the space and dominated the interaction through high recruitment and survival. These results matched independent field observations, which validated the model for further analyses. 4. The elasticity analyses showed that although free space was available there was competition for space during recruitment intervals. It was also shown that both populations were sensitive to changes in recruitment. 5. Introducing the three scenarios of recruitment disturbances led to large changes in species abundance and free space. The most significant changes were found when scenario (i) and (ii) were combined, producing a shift in species dynamics towards C. montagui dominance. This demonstrates that recruitment can be an important mechanism in the interaction between populations and that the population response to changes in recruitment depends on the added response of interacting species. 6. In a more general context, this model shows that increased sea surface temperature could rapidly lead to increased competition from southern species at higher latitudes. This might accelerate the effects of climate change on the species distribution at these latitudes and eventually lead to changes in community dynamics on temperate and subarctic shores.

Life at the edge: an experimental study of a poleward range boundary

Experimental studies of biogeographic processes are important, but rarely attempted because of the logistical challenges of research at large spatial scales. I used a series of large-scale transplant experiments to investigate the mechanisms controlling species abundance near a poleward range boundary. The intertidal limpet Collisella scabra experiences a 100-fold decline in abundance over the northernmost 300 km of its range. Temperature and food supply both strongly influenced individual survival, growth, and maturation. Regression analysis also revealed significant interactions among these conditions: the effect of one could not be predicted without knowing the level of the other. But these relationships could not explain geographic abundance patterns. Instead, individual limpets were highly successful at sites with relatively low abundance. These results suggest that, even though temperature is important to the success of individual C. scabra populations, the primary effect of warming temperatures under climate change may not be a shift in geographic distribution.

The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems

Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.

Diagnostic monitoring of a changing environment: an alternative UK perspective

Adaptive management of the marine environment requires an understanding of the complex interactions within it. Establishing levels of natural variability within and between marine ecosystems is a necessary prerequisite to this process and requires a monitoring programme which takes account of the issues of time, space and scale. In this paper, we argue that an ecosystem approach to managing the marine environment should take direct account of climate change indicators at a regional level if it is to cope with the unprecedented change expected as a result of human impacts on the earth climate system. We discuss the purpose of environmental monitoring and the importance of maintaining long-term time series. Recommendations are made on the use of these data in conjunction with modern extrapolation and integration tools (e.g. ecosystem models, remote sensing) to provide a diagnostic approach to the management of marine ecosystems, based on adaptive indicators and dynamic baselines.

BIOPHYSICS, PHYSIOLOGICAL ECOLOGY, AND CLIMATE CHANGE: Does Mechanism Matter?

Recent meta-analyses have shown that the effects of climate change are detectable and significant in their magnitude, but these studies have emphasized the utility of looking for large-scale patterns without necessarily understanding the mechanisms underlying these changes. Using a series of case studies, we explore the potential pitfalls when one fails to incorporate aspects of physiological performance when predicting the consequences of climate change on biotic communities. We argue that by considering the mechanistic details of physiological performance within the context of biophysical ecology (engineering methods of heat, mass and momentum exchange applied to biological systems), such approaches will be better poised to predict where and when the impacts of climate change will most likely occur.

Gray wolves as climate change buffers in Yellowstone

Understanding the mechanisms by which climate and predation patterns by top predators co-vary to affect community structure accrues added importance as humans exert growing influence over both climate and regional predator assemblages. In Yellowstone National Park, winter conditions and reintroduced gray wolves (Canis lupus) together determine the availability of winter carrion on which numerous scavenger species depend for survival and reproduction. As climate changes in Yellowstone, therefore, scavenger species may experience a dramatic reshuffling of food resources. As such, we analyzed 55 y of weather data from Yellowstone in order to determine trends in winter conditions. We found that winters are getting shorter, as measured by the number of days with snow on the ground, due to decreased snowfall and increased number of days with temperatures above freezing. To investigate synergistic effects of human and climatic alterations of species interactions, we used an empirically derived model to show that in the absence of wolves, early snow thaw leads to a substantial reduction in late-winter carrion, causing potential food bottlenecks for scavengers. In addition, by narrowing the window of time over which carrion is available and thereby creating a resource pulse, climate change likely favors scavengers that can quickly track food sources over great distances. Wolves, however, largely mitigate late-winter reduction in carrion due to earlier snow thaws. By buffering the effects of climate change on carrion availability, wolves allow scavengers to adapt to a changing environment over a longer time scale more commensurate with natural processes. This study illustrates the importance of restoring and maintaining intact food chains in the face of large-scale environmental perturbations such as climate change.

Reintroducing wolves can help ameliorate the negative effects of warmer winters on other species and reveals the importance of maintaining intact food chains in the face of climate change

Ecosystem recovery after climatic extremes enhanced by genotypic diversity

Contemporary climate change is characterized both by increasing mean temperature and increasing climate variability such as heat waves, storms, and floods. How populations and communities cope with such climatic extremes is a question central to contemporary ecology and biodiversity conservation. Previous work has shown that species diversity can affect ecosystem functioning and resilience. Here, we show that genotypic diversity can replace the role of species diversity in a species-poor coastal ecosystem, and it may buffer against extreme climatic events. In a manipulative field experiment, increasing the genotypic diversity of the cosmopolitan seagrass Zostera marina enhanced biomass production, plant density, and faunal abundance, despite near-lethal water temperatures due to extreme warming across Europe. Net biodiversity effects were explained by genotypic complementarity rather than by selection of particularly robust genotypes. Positive effects on invertebrate fauna suggest that genetic diversity has second-order effects reaching higher trophic levels. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining genetic as well as species diversity to enhance ecosystem resilience in a world of increasing uncertainty.

A Circa-decadal Change in the Gastropod Fauna on a Tidal Flat in an Island Mangrove Estuary

An investigation on gastropod fauna was carried out on a tidal flat in the Nagura Estuary on Ishigaki Island, the Ryukyu Islands in 1989 and 1998 using similar methods. 470-480 quadrats covering ca. 1900 m2 were surveyed during low tides from February to April in each year. Of the total 19 species recorded, the ranges of eight species had varied significantly between the two surveys, with six species expanding their range and two species contracting their range. Percentage in abundance of muddy-bottom species and tropical (<29 degrees N) species increased significantly between the two years. Topography of the flat also changed: the mouth of the river was narrowed and the elevated sections of the tidal flat expanded. During the period from 1984 to 1998, the farmland development around the study site caused influxes of soil into the estuary and the sea-water temperature was rising. These results suggest that the topographical changes due to soil influx and the rising temperature affected the gastropod assemblage at the study site, by increasing the abundance of muddy-bottom species and tropical species. The methodology used in this study, i.e. surface observation at low tides, includes more than 95% of the gastropod fauna, demonstrating the usefulness of surface counts for the study of soft-bottom fauna.

Biochemical indicators of stress and metabolism: applications for marine ecological studies

Studies investigating the effects of temperature, food availability, or other physical factors on the physiology of marine animals have led to the development of biochemical indicators of growth rate, metabolic condition, and physiological stress. Measurements of metabolic enzyme activity and RNA/DNA have been especially valuable as indicators of condition in studies of marine invertebrates and fishes, groups for which accurate determination of field metabolic rates is difficult. Properly calibrated and applied, biochemical indicators have been successfully used in studies of rocky intertidal ecology, where two decades of experimentation have generated rigorous, testable models for determining the relative influences of biotic and abiotic factors on species distribution, abundance, and interaction. Biochemical indicators of condition and metabolic activity (metabolic enzymes, RNA/DNA) have been used to test nutrient-productivity models by demonstrating tight linkages between nearshore oceanographic processes (such as upwelling) and benthic rocky intertidal ecosystems. Indices of condition and heat stress (heat shock proteins, or Hsps) have begun to be used to test environmental stress models by comparing condition, activity, and Hsp expression of key rocky intertidal predator and prey species. Using biochemical indicators of condition and stress in natural systems holds great promise for understanding mechanisms by which organisms respond to rapid environmental change.

Nutrient loading and consumers: agents of change in open-coast macrophyte assemblages

Human activities are significantly altering nutrient regimes and the abundance of consumers in coastal ecosystems. A field experiment in an open-coast, upwelling ecosystem showed that small increases in nutrients increased the biomass and evenness of tide pool macrophytes where consumer abundance and nutrient loading rates were low. Consumers, when abundant, had negative effects on the diversity and biomass of macrophytes. Nutrient loading increases and consumers are less abundant and efficient as wave exposure increases along open coastlines. Experimentally reversing the natural state of nutrient supply and consumer pressure at a wave-protected site to match wave-exposed sites caused the structure of the macrophyte assemblage to converge on that found naturally in wave-exposed pools. The increases in evenness and abundance were driven by increases in structurally complex functional groups. In contrast, increased nutrient loading in semienclosed marine or estuarine ecosystems is typically associated with declines in macrophyte diversity because of increases in structurally simple and opportunistic functional groups. If nutrient concentration of upwelled waters changes with climatic warming or increasing frequency of El Niños, as predicted by some climate models, these results suggest that macrophyte abundance and evenness along wave-swept open-coasts will also change. Macrophytes represent a significant fraction of continental shelf production and provide important habitat for many marine species. The combined effects of shifting nutrient regimes and overexploitation of consumers may have unexpected consequences for the structure and functioning of open-coast communities.

Allele frequency shifts in response to climate change and physiological consequences of allozyme variation in a montane insect

Rapid changes in climate may impose strong selective pressures on organisms. Evolutionary responses to climate change have been observed in natural populations, yet no example has been documented for a metabolic enzyme locus. Furthermore, few studies have linked physiological responses to stress with allozyme genotypic variation. We quantified changes in allele frequency between 1988 and 1996 at three allozyme loci (isocitrate dehydrogenase, Idh; phosphoglucose isomerase, Pgi; and phosphoglucomutase, Pgm) for the leaf beetle Chrysomela aeneicollis in the Bishop Creek region of the Sierra Nevada of California (2900-3300 m). Beetles often experience high daytime (> 32 degrees C) and extremely low nighttime (< -5 degrees C) temperatures during summer. Bishop Creek weather station data indicated that conditions were unusually dry before 1988, and that conditions were cool and wet during the years preceding the 1996 collection. We found directional changes in allele frequency at Pgi (11% increase in the Pgi-1 allele), but not at Idh or Pgm. We also found that physiological response to thermal extremes depended on Pgi genotype. Pgi 1-1 individuals induced expression of a 70-kD heat shock protein (HSP) at lower temperatures than 1-4 or 4-4 individuals, and 1-1 individuals expressed higher levels of HSP70 after laboratory exposure to temperatures routinely experienced in nature. Survival after nighttime laboratory exposure to subzero temperatures depended on gender, previous exposure to cold, and Pgi genotype. Females expressed higher levels of HSP70 than males after exposure to heat, and recovery by female Pgi 1-1 homozygotes after exposure to cold (-5 degrees C) was significantly better than 1-4 or 4-4 genotypes. These data suggest that the cooler climate of the mid-1990s may have caused an increase in frequency of the Pgi-1 allele, due to a more robust physiological response to cold by Pgi 1-1 and 1-4 genotypes.

Climate change and latitudinal patterns of intertidal thermal stress

The interaction of climate and the timing of low tides along the West Coast of the United States creates a complex mosaic of thermal environments, in which northern sites can be more thermally stressful than southern sites. Thus, climate change may not lead to a poleward shift in the distribution of intertidal organisms, as has been proposed, but instead will likely cause localized extinctions at a series of "hot spots." Patterns of exposure to extreme climatic conditions are temporally variable, and tidal predictions suggest that in the next 3 to 5 years "hot spots" are likely to appear at several northern sites.

Reorganization of North Atlantic marine copepod biodiversity and climate

We provide evidence of large-scale changes in the biogeography of calanoid copepod crustaceans in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean and European shelf seas. We demonstrate that strong biogeographical shifts in all copepod assemblages have occurred with a northward extension of more than 10 degrees latitude of warm-water species associated with a decrease in the number of colder-water species. These biogeographical shifts are in agreement with recent changes in the spatial distribution and phenology detected for many taxonomic groups in terrestrial European ecosystems and are related to both the increasing trend in Northern Hemisphere temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Climate change and emerging infectious diseases

The ranges of infectious diseases and vectors are changing in altitude, along with shifts in plant communities and the retreat of alpine glaciers. Additionally, extreme weather events create conditions conducive to clusters of insect-, rodent- and water-borne diseases. Accelerating climate change carries profound threats for public health and society.

A comparative analysis of the evolutionary patterning and mechanistic bases of lactate dehydrogenase thermal stability in porcelain crabs, genus Petrolisthes

The kinetic properties of orthologous homologs (orthologs) of enzymes are typically correlated with environmental temperatures in species adapted to different thermal regimes, but correlations between adaptation temperature and enzyme thermal stability are less clear. Although the thermal stability of a protein is related chiefly to its primary structure (including post-translational modification), thermal stability can also be altered by extrinsic factors present in the intracellular milieu. Here, we present a comparative analysis of the thermal stability of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) orthologs from 22 congeneric species of porcelain crab (genera Petrolisthes and Allopetrolisthes) from a broad range of thermal habitats. Interspecific diversity of LDH stability is high: temperatures required for a 50 % loss of activity in 10 min ranged from 65 to 75.5 degrees C, corresponding to half-lives of less than 1 min to more than 3 h at 70 degrees C. Although stability is positively correlated with maximal habitat temperature in some sister taxa, phylogenetic comparative analysis incorporating all 22 species does not indicate that the interspecific diversity of LDH stability represents an adaptive response to current thermal habitats. Examination of the mechanistic bases of LDH stabilization indicates that differences in stability are related both to properties of the LDH molecule itself (intrinsic stability) and to the effects of extrinsic protein(s). Intrinsic differences were shown by the unfolding of structure during heating, as measured by circular dichroism spectroscopy. Stabilizing effects of extrinsic proteins are implied by the results of cellular fractionation experiments that removed low-molecular-mass solutes and proteins from the muscle homogenates. We conclude that the overall structural stability and functional properties of proteins can evolve independently and that in vivo protein-protein interactions can provide another means to regulate protein stability selectively.

Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent?

Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to have significant impacts on the world's climate on a timescale of decades to centuries. Evidence from long-term monitoring studies is now accumulating and suggests that the climate of the past few decades is anomalous compared with past climate variation, and that recent climatic and atmospheric trends are already affecting species physiology, distribution and phenology.

Emerging marine diseases--climate links and anthropogenic factors

Mass mortalities due to disease outbreaks have recently affected major taxa in the oceans. For closely monitored groups like corals and marine mammals, reports of the frequency of epidemics and the number of new diseases have increased recently. A dramatic global increase in the severity of coral bleaching in 1997-98 is coincident with high El Niño temperatures. Such climate-mediated, physiological stresses may compromise host resistance and increase frequency of opportunistic diseases. Where documented, new diseases typically have emerged through host or range shifts of known pathogens. Both climate and human activities may have also accelerated global transport of species, bringing together pathogens and previously unexposed host populations.

Long-term discrepancy between food supply and demand in the deep eastern north pacific

A 7-year study of food supply [sinking particulate organic carbon (POC)] and food demand [sediment community oxygen consumption (SCOC)] in the abyssal eastern North Pacific revealed a long-term deficit in food supply. The POC:SCOC ratio decreased by 52 to 59 percent between 1989 and 1996. A possible explanation for this trend is the documented sea surface temperature increase and concomitant plankton biomass decrease in the eastern North Pacific, resulting in an apparent reduction in POC export from surface waters to the deep ocean. Continuation of this trend could profoundly impact geochemical cycling as well as the structure and dynamics of deep-sea communities.

Regulation of keystone predation by small changes in ocean temperature

Key species interactions that are sensitive to temperature may act as leverage points through which small changes in climate could generate large changes in natural communities. Field and laboratory experiments showed that a slight decrease in water temperature dramatically reduced the effects of a keystone predator, the sea star Pisaster ochraceus, on its principal prey. Ongoing changes in patterns of cold water upwelling, associated with El Nino events and longer term geophysical changes, may thus have far-reaching impacts on the composition and diversity of these rocky intertidal communities.