1451
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Parmesan C, Yohe G. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 2003; 421:37-42. [PMID: 12511946 DOI: 10.1038/nature01286] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4260] [Impact Index Per Article: 193.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2002] [Accepted: 10/22/2002] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Camille Parmesan
- Integrative Biology, Patterson Laboratories 141, University of Texas, Austin, Texas 78712, USA.
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1452
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Bunyavanich S, Landrigan CP, McMichael AJ, Epstein PR. The impact of climate change on child health. AMBULATORY PEDIATRICS : THE OFFICIAL JOURNAL OF THE AMBULATORY PEDIATRIC ASSOCIATION 2003; 3:44-52. [PMID: 12540254 DOI: 10.1367/1539-4409(2003)003<0044:tiocco>2.0.co;2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 93] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/24/2023]
Abstract
Human activity has contributed to climate change. The relationship between climate and child health has not been well investigated. This review discusses the role of climate change on child health and suggests 3 ways in which this relationship may manifest. First, environmental changes associated with anthropogenic greenhouse gases can lead to respiratory diseases, sunburn, melanoma, and immunosuppression. Second, climate change may directly cause heat stroke, drowning, gastrointestinal diseases, and psychosocial maldevelopment. Third, ecologic alterations triggered by climate change can increase rates of malnutrition, allergies and exposure to mycotoxins, vector-borne diseases (malaria, dengue, encephalitides, Lyme disease), and emerging infectious diseases. Further climate change is likely, given global industrial and political realities. Proactive and preventive physician action, research focused on the differential effects of climate change on subpopulations including children, and policy advocacy on the individual and federal levels could contain climate change and inform appropriate prevention and response.
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1453
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Rusticucci MM. Warm and cold events in Argentina and their relationship with South Atlantic and South Pacific Sea surface temperatures. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2003. [DOI: 10.1029/2003jc001793] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
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1454
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Mysterud A, Stenseth NC, Yoccoz NG, Ottersen G, Langvatn R. The response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION: CLIMATIC SIGNIFICANCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT 2003. [DOI: 10.1029/134gm11] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
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1455
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WELTZIN JAKEF, LOIK MICHAELE, SCHWINNING SUSANNE, WILLIAMS DAVIDG, FAY PHILIPA, HADDAD BRENTM, HARTE JOHN, HUXMAN TRAVISE, KNAPP ALANK, LIN GUANGHUI, POCKMAN WILLIAMT, SHAW MREBECCA, SMALL ERICE, SMITH MELINDAD, SMITH STANLEYD, TISSUE DAVIDT, ZAK JOHNC. Assessing the Response of Terrestrial Ecosystems to Potential Changes in Precipitation. Bioscience 2003. [DOI: 10.1641/0006-3568(2003)053[0941:atrote]2.0.co;2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 605] [Impact Index Per Article: 27.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
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1456
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Knapp AK, Fay PA, Blair JM, Collins SL, Smith MD, Carlisle JD, Harper CW, Danner BT, Lett MS, McCarron JK. Rainfall variability, carbon cycling, and plant species diversity in a mesic grassland. Science 2002; 298:2202-5. [PMID: 12481139 DOI: 10.1126/science.1076347] [Citation(s) in RCA: 405] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Ecosystem responses to increased variability in rainfall, a prediction of general circulation models, were assessed in native grassland by reducing storm frequency and increasing rainfall quantity per storm during a 4-year experiment. More extreme rainfall patterns, without concurrent changes in total rainfall quantity, increased temporal variability in soil moisture and plant species diversity. However, carbon cycling processes such as soil CO2 flux, CO2 uptake by the dominant grasses, and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) were reduced, and ANPP was more responsive to soil moisture variability than to mean soil water content. Our results show that projected increases in rainfall variability can rapidly alter key carbon cycling processes and plant community composition, independent of changes in total precipitation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alan K Knapp
- Division of Biology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA.
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1457
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Stenseth NC, Mysterud A. Climate, changing phenology, and other life history traits: nonlinearity and match-mismatch to the environment. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2002; 99:13379-81. [PMID: 12370424 PMCID: PMC129680 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.212519399] [Citation(s) in RCA: 234] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Nils Chr Stenseth
- Department of Biology, Division of Zoology, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1050 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway.
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1458
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Stenseth NC, Mysterud A, Ottersen G, Hurrell JW, Chan KS, Lima M. Ecological effects of climate fluctuations. Science 2002; 297:1292-6. [PMID: 12193777 DOI: 10.1126/science.1071281] [Citation(s) in RCA: 690] [Impact Index Per Article: 30.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Climate influences a variety of ecological processes. These effects operate through local weather parameters such as temperature, wind, rain, snow, and ocean currents, as well as interactions among these. In the temperate zone, local variations in weather are often coupled over large geographic areas through the transient behavior of atmospheric planetary-scale waves. These variations drive temporally and spatially averaged exchanges of heat, momentum, and water vapor that ultimately determine growth, recruitment, and migration patterns. Recently, there have been several studies of the impact of large-scale climatic forcing on ecological systems. We review how two of the best-known climate phenomena-the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation-affect ecological patterns and processes in both marine and terrestrial systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nils Chr Stenseth
- Department of Biology, Division of Zoology, University of Oslo, Post Office Box 1050 Blindern, N-0316 Oslo, Norway.
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1459
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Tong S, Bi P, Donald K, McMichael AJ. Climate variability and Ross River virus transmission. J Epidemiol Community Health 2002; 56:617-21. [PMID: 12118054 PMCID: PMC1732227 DOI: 10.1136/jech.56.8.617] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES (1) To examine the feasibility to link climate data with monthly incidence of Ross River virus (RRv). (2) To assess the impact of climate variability on the RRv transmission. DESIGN An ecological time series analysis was performed on the data collected between 1985 to 1996 in Queensland, Australia. METHODS Information on the notified RRv cases was obtained from the Queensland Department of Health. Climate and population data were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Spearman's rank correlation analyses were performed to examine the relation between climate variability and the monthly incidence of notified RRv infections. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to perform a time series analysis. As maximum and minimum temperatures were highly correlated with each other (r(s)=0.75), two separate models were developed. RESULTS For the eight major cities in Queensland, the climate-RRv correlation coefficients were in the range of 0.12 to 0.52 for maximum and minimum temperatures, -0.10 to 0.46 for rainfall, and 0.11 to 0.52 for relative humidity and high tide. For the whole State, rainfall (partial regression coefficient: 0.017 (95% confidence intervals 0.009 to 0.025) in Model I and 0.018 (0.010 to 0.026) in Model II), and high tidal level (0.030 (0.006 to 0.054) in Model I and 0.029 (0.005 to 0.053) in Model II) seemed to have played significant parts in the transmission of RRv in Queensland. Maximum temperature was also marginally significantly associated with the incidence of RRv infection. CONCLUSION Rainfall, temperature, and tidal levels may be important environmental determinants in the transmission cycles of RRv disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- S Tong
- Centre for Public Health Research, Queensland University of Technology, Australia.
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1460
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Affiliation(s)
- Abderrezak Bouchama
- Medical and Surgical Intensive Care Unit and Comparative Medicine Department, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
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1461
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McLaughlin JF, Hellmann JJ, Boggs CL, Ehrlich PR. Climate change hastens population extinctions. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2002; 99:6070-4. [PMID: 11972020 PMCID: PMC122903 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.052131199] [Citation(s) in RCA: 194] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 03/06/2002] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change is expected to alter the distribution and abundance of many species. Predictions of climate-induced population extinctions are supported by geographic range shifts that correspond to climatic warming, but few extinctions have been linked mechanistically to climate change. Here we show that extinctions of two populations of a checkerspot butterfly were hastened by increasing variability in precipitation, a phenomenon predicted by global climate models. We model checkerspot populations to show that changes in precipitation amplified population fluctuations, leading to rapid extinctions. As populations of checkerspots and other species become further isolated by habitat loss, climate change is likely to cause more extinctions, threatening both species diversity and critical ecosystem services.
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Affiliation(s)
- John F McLaughlin
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Huxley College of the Environment, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 98225-9181, USA.
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1462
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Walther GR, Post E, Convey P, Menzel A, Parmesan C, Beebee TJC, Fromentin JM, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Bairlein F. Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 2002; 416:389-95. [PMID: 11919621 DOI: 10.1038/416389a] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3765] [Impact Index Per Article: 163.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gian-Reto Walther
- Institute of Geobotany, University of Hannover, Nienburger Str. 17, 30167 Hannover, Germany.
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1463
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1464
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1465
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1466
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Bradshaw WE, Holzapfel CM. Genetic shift in photoperiodic response correlated with global warming. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2001; 98:14509-11. [PMID: 11698659 PMCID: PMC64712 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.241391498] [Citation(s) in RCA: 325] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
To date, all altered patterns of seasonal interactions observed in insects, birds, amphibians, and plants associated with global warming during the latter half of the 20th century are explicable as variable expressions of plastic phenotypes. Over the last 30 years, the genetically controlled photoperiodic response of the pitcher-plant mosquito, Wyeomyia smithii, has shifted toward shorter, more southern daylengths as growing seasons have become longer. This shift is detectable over a time interval as short as 5 years. Faster evolutionary response has occurred in northern populations where selection is stronger and genetic variation is greater than in southern populations. W. smithii represents an example of actual genetic differentiation of a seasonality trait that is consistent with an adaptive evolutionary response to recent global warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- W E Bradshaw
- Ecology and Evolution Program, Department of Biology, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403-1210, USA.
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1467
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Hilbert DW, Ostendorf B, Hopkins MS. Sensitivity of tropical forests to climate change in the humid tropics of north Queensland. AUSTRAL ECOL 2001. [DOI: 10.1046/j.1442-9993.2001.01137.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 89] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
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1468
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Martin PH, Nabuurs GJ, Aubinet M, Karjalainen T, Vine EL, Kinsman J, Heath LS. CARBON SINKS IN TEMPERATE FORESTS. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2001. [DOI: 10.1146/annurev.energy.26.1.435] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
▪ Abstract In addition to being scientifically exciting, commercially important, and environmentally essential, temperate forests have also become a key diplomatic item in international climate negotiations as potential sinks for carbon. This review presents the methods used to estimate carbon sequestration, identifies the constraints and opportunities for carbon sequestration in temperate forests, addresses the issues raised by the monitoring of carbon sequestration, and analyzes uncertainties pertaining to the sequestration of carbon by temperate forests. This review serves a dual purpose: It aims at informing policy makers about carbon sequestration in temperate forests and at making forest ecologists, biogeochemists, and atmospheric scientists aware of the structure of an international agreement to reduce CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions and some of the real, still answered scientific questions that it poses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Philippe H. Martin
- European Commission, Research Directorate General, B-1049 Brussels, Belgium,
- ALTERRA, Wageningen University and Research Center, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands,
- Unit of Physics, Faculté Universitaire des Sciences Agronomiques, B-5030 Gembloux, Belgium,
- European Forest Institute, Joensuu, Finland,
- Energy Analysis Department, Environmental Energy Technologies Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California 94720,
| | - Gert-Jan Nabuurs
- European Commission, Research Directorate General, B-1049 Brussels, Belgium,
- ALTERRA, Wageningen University and Research Center, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands,
- Unit of Physics, Faculté Universitaire des Sciences Agronomiques, B-5030 Gembloux, Belgium,
- European Forest Institute, Joensuu, Finland,
- Energy Analysis Department, Environmental Energy Technologies Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California 94720,
| | - Marc Aubinet
- European Commission, Research Directorate General, B-1049 Brussels, Belgium,
- ALTERRA, Wageningen University and Research Center, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands,
- Unit of Physics, Faculté Universitaire des Sciences Agronomiques, B-5030 Gembloux, Belgium,
- European Forest Institute, Joensuu, Finland,
- Energy Analysis Department, Environmental Energy Technologies Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California 94720,
| | - Timo Karjalainen
- European Commission, Research Directorate General, B-1049 Brussels, Belgium,
- ALTERRA, Wageningen University and Research Center, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands,
- Unit of Physics, Faculté Universitaire des Sciences Agronomiques, B-5030 Gembloux, Belgium,
- European Forest Institute, Joensuu, Finland,
- Energy Analysis Department, Environmental Energy Technologies Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California 94720,
| | - Edward L. Vine
- European Commission, Research Directorate General, B-1049 Brussels, Belgium,
- ALTERRA, Wageningen University and Research Center, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands,
- Unit of Physics, Faculté Universitaire des Sciences Agronomiques, B-5030 Gembloux, Belgium,
- European Forest Institute, Joensuu, Finland,
- Energy Analysis Department, Environmental Energy Technologies Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California 94720,
| | - John Kinsman
- European Commission, Research Directorate General, B-1049 Brussels, Belgium,
- ALTERRA, Wageningen University and Research Center, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands,
- Unit of Physics, Faculté Universitaire des Sciences Agronomiques, B-5030 Gembloux, Belgium,
- European Forest Institute, Joensuu, Finland,
- Energy Analysis Department, Environmental Energy Technologies Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California 94720,
| | - Linda S. Heath
- European Commission, Research Directorate General, B-1049 Brussels, Belgium,
- ALTERRA, Wageningen University and Research Center, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands,
- Unit of Physics, Faculté Universitaire des Sciences Agronomiques, B-5030 Gembloux, Belgium,
- European Forest Institute, Joensuu, Finland,
- Energy Analysis Department, Environmental Energy Technologies Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California 94720,
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1469
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Abstract
BACKGROUND Global warming is caused by increased carbon dioxide (CO2)resulting in a greenhouse effect with enhanced warming of the earth. Measurements of CO2 show a steady increase over the past 30 years caused by the burning of fossil fuels and from the loss of natural CO2 sinks. A 100-year increase in global temperature by 0.3 to 0.6 degrees C is reflected in atmospheric warming, glacier shrinkage, and rising sea levels. OBJECTIVES Planetary ecosystem dynamics are being altered, challenging public health. It is predicted that morbidity and mortality will increase as a result of heat stress, as seen in recent heat waves in the U.S. Weather disaster effects will increase in number and magnitude, and both noninfectious and infectious diseases may flourish. A significant challenge will be the changes in life cycles of microbial species due to the warmer environs. Specific increases in incidence have been noted for vector-borne diseases, in addition to pulmonary findings, cardiovascular morbidity, neurological diseases, and occupational diseases. CONCLUSIONS Warming can be demonstrated by the observed changes that have already occurred in the environment, particularly the thinning of polar ice caps. The United States Global Research Program has been established to coordinate research activities, which responds to issues deemed important by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Research issues pertain to the scientific uncertainties in the greenhouse effect, temperature measurements at various atmospheric levels and latitudes, and impact on biota redistribution. The Kyoto Protocol has mandated specific solutions, e.g., a 7% reduction in CO2 levels within 10 years. Future recommendations involve supporting new technologies that are available to decrease emissions as well as understanding the role that occupational and environmental specialists have in global warming recognition.
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Affiliation(s)
- D Yoganathan
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Departments of Medicine and Environmental Medicine, New York University School of Medicine, 550 First Avenue, New York, NY, USA
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1470
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Abstract
The ranges of infectious diseases and vectors are changing in altitude, along with shifts in plant communities and the retreat of alpine glaciers. Additionally, extreme weather events create conditions conducive to clusters of insect-, rodent- and water-borne diseases. Accelerating climate change carries profound threats for public health and society.
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Affiliation(s)
- P R Epstein
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, Harvard Medical School, 260 Longwood Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
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1471
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Abstract
West Nile virus is transmitted by urban-dwelling mosquitoes to birds and other animals, with occasional "spillover" to humans. While the means by which West Nile virus was introduced into the Americas in 1999 remain unknown, the climatic conditions that amplify diseases that cycle among urban mosquitoes, birds, and humans are warm winters and spring droughts. This information can be useful in generating early warning systems and mobilizing timely and the most environmentally friendly public health interventions. The extreme weather conditions accompanying long-term climate change may also be contributing to the spread of West Nile virus in the United States and Europe.
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Affiliation(s)
- P R Epstein
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts 02115, USA.
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1472
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Abstract
Interannual variability in aboveground net primary production (ANPP) was assessed with long-term (mean = 12 years) data from 11 Long Term Ecological Research sites across North America. The greatest interannual variability in ANPP occurred in grasslands and old fields, with forests the least variable. At a continental scale, ANPP was strongly correlated with annual precipitation. However, interannual variability in ANPP was not related to variability in precipitation. Instead, maximum variability in ANPP occurred in biomes where high potential growth rates of herbaceous vegetation were combined with moderate variability in precipitation. In the most dynamic biomes, ANPP responded more strongly to wet than to dry years. Recognition of the fourfold range in ANPP dynamics across biomes and of the factors that constrain this variability is critical for detecting the biotic impacts of global change phenomena.
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Affiliation(s)
- A K Knapp
- Division of Biology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA
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1473
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DALE VIRGINIAH, JOYCE LINDAA, MCNULTY STEVE, NEILSON RONALDP, AYRES MATTHEWP, FLANNIGAN MICHAELD, HANSON PAULJ, IRLAND LLOYDC, LUGO ARIELE, PETERSON CHRISJ, SIMBERLOFF DANIEL, SWANSON FREDERICKJ, STOCKS BRIANJ, MICHAEL WOTTON B. Climate Change and Forest Disturbances. Bioscience 2001. [DOI: 10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051%5b0723:ccafd%5d2.0.co;2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
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1474
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DALE VIRGINIAH, JOYCE LINDAA, MCNULTY STEVE, NEILSON RONALDP, AYRES MATTHEWP, FLANNIGAN MICHAELD, HANSON PAULJ, IRLAND LLOYDC, LUGO ARIELE, PETERSON CHRISJ, SIMBERLOFF DANIEL, SWANSON FREDERICKJ, STOCKS BRIANJ, MICHAEL WOTTON B. Climate Change and Forest Disturbances. Bioscience 2001. [DOI: 10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0723:ccafd]2.0.co;2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1448] [Impact Index Per Article: 60.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
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1475
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