Serum alpha-fetoprotein levels in patients with advanced hepatitis C: results from the HALT-C Trial

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma

When hepatocellular carcinoma presents with symptoms cure is seldom possible and death usually follows within months. However, it is possible to detect HCC early, at which stage it is curable. This requires a surveillance program. The components of such a program include: identification of the at risk population, provision of appropriate surveillance tests, and an appropriate method of determining whether the abnormalities found on screening are cancer or not. Surveillance for liver cancer meets all these criteria. Unfortunately high quality evidence showing benefit of liver cancer surveillance is lacking, but lesser quality evidence is plentiful, including several cost efficacy analyses that all show that surveillance does decrease mortality. Therefore all the continental liver disease societies and all national liver disease societies have recommended that surveillance should be undertaken.

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a dreaded complication of cirrhosis as it is the commonest cause of mortality in these patients. The last few years have seen a dramatic improvement in the management of this tumor as nearly 50-70% of selected patients with early HCC survive for a median period of up to 5 years after liver transplantation, resection or local ablation. Surveillance has been found to be an effective tool to detect early tumors and expand the applicability of these curative treatment options. Semiannual ultrasonogram is recommended for surveillance by the American, European and Asia Pacific liver societies and is the standard of care in many countries. There is increasing evidence that this practice improves survival too. Since the only way to improve the outlook of HCC is its diagnosis prior to commencement of symptoms, providing surveillance becomes a major responsibility of physicians caring for patients with chronic liver disease. This review attempts to discuss the population at risk of HCC, modalities and frequency of surveillance tests, cost effectiveness and also the logistics of its delivery in the Indian context.

The Indian National Association for Study of the Liver (INASL) Consensus on Prevention, Diagnosis and Management of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in India: The Puri Recommendations

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the major causes of morbidity, mortality and healthcare expenditure in patients with chronic liver disease. There are no consensus guidelines on diagnosis and management of HCC in India. The Indian National Association for Study of the Liver (INASL) set up a Task-Force on HCC in 2011, with a mandate to develop consensus guidelines for diagnosis and management of HCC, relevant to disease patterns and clinical practices in India. The Task-Force first identified various contentious issues on various aspects of HCC and these issues were allotted to individual members of the Task-Force who reviewed them in detail. The Task-Force used the Oxford Center for Evidence Based Medicine-Levels of Evidence of 2009 for developing an evidence-based approach. A 2-day round table discussion was held on 9th and 10th February, 2013 at Puri, Odisha, to discuss, debate, and finalize the consensus statements. The members of the Task-Force reviewed and discussed the existing literature at this meeting and formulated the INASL consensus statements for each of the issues. We present here the INASL consensus guidelines (The Puri Recommendations) on prevention, diagnosis and management of HCC in India.

Processes to manage analyses and publications in a phase III multicenter randomized clinical trial

Background

The timely publication of findings in peer-reviewed journals is a primary goal of clinical research. In clinical trials, the processes leading to publication can be complex from choice and prioritization of analytic topics through to journal submission and revisions. As little literature exists on the publication process for multicenter trials, we describe the development, implementation, and effectiveness of such a process in a multicenter trial.

Methods

The Hepatitis C Antiviral Long-Term Treatment against Cirrhosis (HALT-C) trial included a data coordinating center (DCC) and clinical centers that recruited and followed more than 1,000 patients. Publication guidelines were approved by the steering committee, and the publications committee monitored the publication process from selection of topics to publication.

Results

A total of 73 manuscripts were published in 23 peer-reviewed journals. When manuscripts were closely tracked, the median time for analyses and drafting of manuscripts was 8 months. The median time for data analyses was 5 months and the median time for manuscript drafting was 3 months. The median time for publications committee review, submission, and journal acceptance was 7 months, and the median time from analytic start to journal acceptance was 18 months.

Conclusions

Effective publication guidelines must be comprehensive, implemented early in a trial, and require active management by study investigators. Successful collaboration, such as in the HALT-C trial, can serve as a model for others involved in multidisciplinary and multicenter research programs.

Trial registration

The HALT-C Trial was registered with clinicaltrials.gov (NCT00006164).

Factors that affect accuracy of α-fetoprotein test in detection of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Measurements of α-fetoprotein (AFP) detect hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with low levels of sensitivity and specificity, and therefore are not recommended for use in liver cancer surveillance. However, AFP levels might accurately detect HCC in subgroups of patients. We performed a retrospective case-control study to identify features of patients with cirrhosis in whom levels of AFP correlated with HCC.

METHODS

We collected data from patients with cirrhosis, with (n = 452) or without (n = 676) HCC, diagnosed at Parkland Hospital in Dallas, Texas, from January 2005 through June 2012. We determined sensitivities and specificities with which different levels of AFP identified those with HCC; multivariate logistic regression was used to associate accurate identification of HCC with patient features (age, sex, race/ethnicity, alcohol intake, smoking, etiology of cirrhosis, presence of decompensation, and laboratory test results). We assessed the overall accuracy of these factors in detecting HCC using receiver operator characteristic curve analysis and the Delong method. We calculated levels of AFP that detect HCC with the highest levels of sensitivity and specificity in subgroups using receiver operator characteristic analysis.

RESULTS

The most common etiologies of cirrhosis were hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection (60%) and alcohol induced (22%). Nearly 11% of patients were human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive. Levels of AFP greater than 20 ng/mL detected HCC with 70.1% sensitivity and 89.8% specificity. This AFP level identified patients with HCC with a c-statistic of 0.87 (95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.89); it was significantly more accurate in HCV-negative patients than in HCV-positive patients (c-statistic, 0.89 vs 0.83; P = .007). AFP levels of 59 ng/mL or greater most accurately detected HCC in patients with HCV-associated cirrhosis; levels of AFP of 11 ng/mL or greater accurately identified HCC in HCV-negative patients. The level of AFP identified early stage HCC with a c-statistic of 0.62 (95% confidence interval, 0.58-0.66), and had a significantly higher level of accuracy for HIV-positive patients than for HIV-negative patients (c-statistic, 0.81 vs 0.59; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Based on a retrospective analysis of data from patients with cirrhosis, with or without HCC, AFP level most accurately detects HCC in patients without HCV infection. It detects HCC with a high level of accuracy in patients with cirrhosis and HIV infection.

A new laboratory-based algorithm to predict development of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis C and cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Serum levels of α-fetoprotein (AFP) are influenced not only by the presence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but also by the underlying severity and activity of liver disease, which is reflected by liver function tests. We constructed an AFP-based algorithm that included these factors to identify patients at risk for HCC, and tested its predictive ability in a large set of patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

We used the national Department of Veterans Affairs Hepatitis C Virus Clinical Case Registry to identify patients with cirrhosis, results from at least 1 AFP test, and 6 months of follow-up. Our algorithm included data on age; levels of aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), alkaline phosphatase, total bilirubin, albumin, creatinine, and hemoglobin; prothrombin time; and numbers of platelets and white cells. We examined the operating characteristics (calibration, discrimination, predictive values) of several different algorithms for identification of patients who would develop HCC within 6 months of the AFP test. We assessed our final model in the development and validation subsets.

RESULTS

We identified 11,721 patients with hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis in whom 35,494 AFP tests were performed, and 987 patients developed HCC. A predictive model that included data on levels of AFP, ALT, and platelets, along with age at time of AFP test (and interaction terms between AFP and ALT, and AFP and platelets), best discriminated between patients who did and did not develop HCC. Using this AFP-adjusted model, the predictive accuracy increased at different AFP cutoffs compared with AFP alone. At any given AFP value, low numbers of platelets and ALT and older age were associated with increased risk of HCC, and high levels of ALT and normal/high numbers of platelets were associated with low risk for HCC. For example, the probabilities of HCC, based only on 20 ng/mL and 120 ng/mL AFP, were 3.5% and 11.4%, respectively. However, patients with the same AFP values (20 ng/mL and 120 ng/mL) who were 70 years old, with ALT levels of 40 IU/mL and platelet counts of 100,000, had probabilities of developing HCC of 8.1% and 29.0%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated an algorithm based on levels of AFP, platelets, and ALT, along with age, which increased the predictive value for identifying patients with hepatitis C virus-associated cirrhosis likely to develop HCC within 6 months. If validated in other patient groups, this model would have immediate clinical applicability.

Determinants of alpha-fetoprotein levels in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: implications for its clinical use

BACKGROUND

α-Fetoprotein (AFP) is a biomarker commonly used in the management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), although the possible determinants of its serum levels in these patients have not been adequately explored. For this study, the authors evaluated the relevance of demographic, clinical, and oncologic factors to the presence of elevated AFP levels in large cohort of patients with HCC.

METHODS

In 4123 patients with HCC who were managed by the Italian Liver Cancer Group, AFP levels were assessed along with their association with demographic, biochemical, clinical, and oncologic characteristics. Patients were subdivided according to the presence of elevated AFP (ie, >10 ng/mL).

RESULTS

AFP levels were elevated in 62.4% of patients with HCC. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that being a woman (odds ratio [OR], 1.497; 95% confidence interval [95%CI], 1.250-1.793; P < .0001), the presence of cirrhosis (OR, 1.538; 95% CI, 1.050-2.254; P = .027), liver disease with viral etiology (OR, 1.900; 95% CI, 1.589-2.272; P < .0001), an elevated alanine aminotransferase level (OR, 1.878; 95% CI, 1.602-2.202; P < .0001), a low albumin level (OR, 1.301; 95% CI, 1.110-1.525; P = .012), an HCC tumor size >2 cm (OR, 1.346; 95% CI, 1.135-2.596; P = .001), multinodular HCC (OR, 1.641; 95% CI, 1.403-1.920; P < .0001), and the presence of vascular invasion (OR, 1.774; 95% CI, 1.361-2.311; P < .0001) were associated independently with elevated levels of AFP. Both the median AFP level and the proportion of patients who had elevated levels increased with decreasing degrees of HCC differentiation (P < .0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Sex and features of chronic liver disease were identified as nontumor characteristics that influence serum AFP levels in patients with HCC. These findings should be taken into account as limitations in interpreting the oncologic meaning of this biomarker in clinical practice.

On-treatment alpha-fetoprotein is a specific tumor marker for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving entecavir

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is the most widely used biomarker for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance, which is criticized as neither sensitive nor specific in active hepatitis and liver cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to determine the performance of AFP as a tumor marker for HCC in entecavir-treated patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This was a retrospective-prospective cohort study of 1,531 entecavir-treated patients under regular HCC surveillance with AFP and ultrasonography. Mean age was 52 ± 12 years; 1,099 (72%) patients were male and 332 (21.7%) had clinical evidence of cirrhosis. At a mean follow-up of 51 ± 13 months, 57 (2.9%) patients developed HCC (median size: 3.3 cm). AFP fluctuated with alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and peaked at the time of starting entecavir, then gradually decreased after. AFP started to increase 6 months before the diagnosis of HCC. The receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) of AFP was highest at the time of HCC diagnosis (0.85; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.73-0.98) and remained satisfactory at 3 (0.82; 95% CI: 0.73-0.91) and 6 months (0.79; 95% CI: 0.69-0.89) before the diagnosis. Using the conventional AFP cut-off (20 μg/L) at month 0, the sensitivity and specificity to diagnose HCC were 38.6% and 98.9%, respectively. Adopting the lower cut-off value (6 μg/L) of AFP level at month 0, sensitivity was increased to 80.7%, whereas specificity was decreased to 80.4%.

CONCLUSION

On-treatment AFP is a specific tumor marker for HCC in CHB patients receiving entecavir therapy. Adopting a lower cut-off value of AFP level at 6 μg/L would significantly increase the sensitivity for HCC detection.

Proteome Analyses of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Proteomics has evolved into a powerful and widely used bioanalytical technique in the study of cancer, especially hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this review, we provide an up to date overview of feasible proteome-analytical techniques for clinical questions. In addition, we present a broad summary of proteomic studies of HCC utilizing various technical approaches for the analysis of samples derived from diverse sources like HCC cell lines, animal models, human tissue and body fluids.

Improved Serum Alpha-Fetoprotein Levels after Iron Reduction Therapy in HCV Patients

Background and Aims. To examine the changes in serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels after iron reduction by therapeutic phlebotomy in chronic hepatitis C patients. Methods. This retrospective study included 26 chronic hepatitis C patients. The patients were developed iron depletion by repeated therapeutic phlebotomies. Results. Iron reduction therapy significantly reduced the median level of serum AFP from 13 to 7 ng/mL, ALT from 96 to 50 IU/L, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) from 55 to 28 IU/L, and ferritin from 191 to 10 ng/mL (P < 0.001 for each). The rate of decline in the AFP level correlated positively only with that in GGT (r = 0.695, P = 0.001), although a spurious correlation was observed between the rates of decline for AFP and ALT. The AFP level normalized (<10 ng/mL) posttreatment in eight (50%) of 16 patients who had elevated pretreatment AFP levels. Normalized post-treatment ALT and GGT levels were seen in 12% (3 of 26) and 39% (7 of 18) of the patients, respectively. Multivariate analysis identified a post-treatment GGT level of <30 IU/L as an independent factor associated with post-treatment AFP normalization (odds ratio, 21; 95% confidence interval, 1.5-293; P = 0.024). Conclusions. Iron reduction by therapeutic phlebotomy can reduce serum AFP and GGT levels in chronic hepatitis C patients.

Prospective screening increases the detection of potentially curable hepatocellular carcinoma: results in 8,900 high-risk patients

OBJECTIVES

Historically, only 10% of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are diagnosed with early-stage, potentially curable disease. In this study, chronic hepatitis virus-infected patients were prospectively screened to determine: (i) the proportion of patients diagnosed with potentially curable HCC, and (ii) survival following curative therapy.

METHODS

The study included 8900 chronic hepatitis virus-infected patients enrolled in a prospective screening programme, of whom 1335 (15.0%) were infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV), 7120 (80.0%) with hepatitis C virus (HCV), and 445 (5.0%) with both HBV and HCV. Screening was conducted every 6 months and included serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) measurement and ultrasonography. Curative treatments included liver transplantation, resection, radiofrequency ablation and/or ethanol injection.

RESULTS

Hepatocellular carcinoma was diagnosed in 765 (8.6%) patients. Of 1602 patients with cirrhosis, 758 (47.3%) developed HCC. Curative treatment was possible in 523 (68.4%) of the 765 HCC patients. Two- and 5-year rates of overall survival in the curative treatment group were 65% and 28%, respectively, compared with 10% and 0% in the advanced disease group (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Prospective screening of patients at high risk for the development of HCC increases the proportion of patients diagnosed with potentially curable disease. This may result in an increase in the number of longterm survivors. Screening strategies should focus on patients with chronic HBV or HCV infection who have progressed to cirrhosis because more than 40% of these patients will develop HCC.

Clinical Significance of Plasma Osteopontin Level as a Biomarker of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background

Biomarkers of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are helpful in screening, diagnosis and follow up of cases. Osteopontin (OPN) is a glycoprotein secreted by osteoblasts, osteoclasts, macrophages and T cells, and is over-expressed in a variety of tumors, including carcinomas of liver, stomach, breast, lung, colon, and prostate. So, the aim of this study was to verify the possibility of using the plasma Osteopontin level as a biomarker for diagnosis of HCC.

Methods

The study included 70 subjects divided into three groups: group I had 30 patients with HCC (proved by histopathology or combined spiral CT and elevated alpha-fetoprotein) on top of HCV, group II had 30 patients with HCV infection and group III had 10 healthy subjects serving as control. Osteopontin level was measured in plasma of the studied subjects by ELISA, serum alpha fetoprotein (AFP) level was also measured by EIA.

Results

Osteopontin levels were significantly elevated in patients with HCC and in HCV patients in comparison to control group (P: 0.005). There was significant correlation between OPN and AFP levels (P: 0.00). The sensitivity and specificity of OPN for selective detection of HCC group over the non-HCC group (HCV group and healthy control group) were73% and 54%, respectively, at a cut-off value of 128.5 ng/mL. Plasma OPN levels directly correlated with the tumor number but not with the size of the tumor (P: 0.00).

Conclusion

Plasma OPN level appears to be an additional biomarker for HCC detection.

Hepatic fibrosis and serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) as predictors of response to HCV treatment and factors associated with serum AFP normalisation after treatment

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIM

Elevated levels of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) can be seen in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) and liver cirrhosis without hepatocellular carcinoma and were negatively associated with treatment response. However, factors associated with its changes are not identified. We aimed in this study to verify a cut-off value for AFP as a predictor of response to standard of care (SOC) antiviral therapy in Egyptian chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients and identify factors associated with its changes post treatment.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 175 chronic non-cirrhotic HCV-infected patients were evaluated for baseline serum AFP and liver biopsy were classified according to Ishak scoring system of hepatic fibrosis. All patients were scheduled to receive SOC antiviral therapy for 48weeks and had been followed up to week 72. Reassessment of AFP and repeated liver biopsy at week 72 were feasible only in 79 patients.

RESULTS

High baseline AFP levels were observed in non-respondents (non-sustained virological respondents (non-SVRs)) (P<0.01); the AFP level decreased in all patients post treatment (P=0.01), especially in the SVRs (P<0.01). In multivariate analysis, hepatic fibrosis was a predictor of response to treatment (P=0.02), while body mass index (BMI) (25-30kgm(-2)), hepatic activity (A2), hepatic fibrosis stage (F2-F4) and fibrosis improvement were predictors of AFP difference (P=0.007, 0.01, 0.012, <0.001, 0.030, and 0.018), respectively. The diagnostic performance to predict the HCV treatment response was best by adding both AFP and hepatic fibrosis stage factors; the best cut-off value for AFP was 3.57ngdl(-1) with 50% sensitivity and 68% specificity with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.55 and for hepatic fibrosis stage was 3, with a sensitivity of 88%, a specificity of 30% with an AUC of 0.58.

CONCLUSION

In chronic HCV-infected patients, serum AFP below 3.57ngdl(-1) and hepatic fibrosis ⩽stage 3 are expected to have good response to treatment; BMI (25-30kgm(-1)), A2, fibrosis >2 and fibrosis improvement predict AFP change post treatment.

α-fetoprotein levels after interferon therapy and risk of hepatocarcinogenesis in chronic hepatitis C

The effects of interferon (IFN) treatment and the post-IFN treatment α-fetoprotein (AFP) levels on risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) are unknown. To determine the relationship between AFP and alanine transaminase (ALT) levels and HCC risk, a cohort consisting of 1,818 patients histologically proven to have CHC treated with IFN were studied. Cumulative incidence and HCC risk were analyzed over a mean follow-up period of 6.1 years using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazard analysis. HCC developed in 179 study subjects. According to multivariate analysis, older age, male gender, advanced fibrosis, severe steatosis, lower serum albumin levels, non sustained virological response (non-SVR), and higher post-IFN treatment ALT or AFP levels were identified as independent factors significantly associated with HCC development. Cutoff values for ALT and AFP for prediction of future HCC were determined as 40 IU/L and 6.0 ng/mL, respectively, and negative predictive values of these cutoffs were high at 0.960 in each value. The cumulative incidence of HCC was significantly lower in patients whose post-IFN treatment ALT and AFP levels were suppressed to less than the cutoff values even in non-SVR patients. This suppressive effect was also found in patients whose post-IFN treatment ALT and AFP levels were reduced to less than the cutoff values despite abnormal pretreatment levels.

CONCLUSION

Post-IFN treatment ALT and AFP levels are significantly associated with hepatocarcinogenesis. Measurement of these values is useful for predicting future HCC risk after IFN treatment. Suppression of these values after IFN therapy reduces HCC risk even in patients without HCV eradication.

Diagnostic performance of alpha-fetoprotein, lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive alpha-fetoprotein, des-gamma carboxyprothrombin, and glypican-3 for the detection of hepatocellular carcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis protocol

BACKGROUND

Diagnosis of early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) followed by curative resection or liver transplantation offers the best chance for long-term patient survival. Clinically, ultrasonography has suboptimal sensitivity for detecting early-stage HCC. Several serological tests including alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), the ratio of lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive alpha-fetoprotein to total AFP (AFP-L3/AFP), des-gamma carboxyprothrombin (DCP), and glypican-3 (GPC-3) have been widely investigated as diagnostic biomarkers for early-stage HCC in at-risk populations. However, these tests are not recommended for routine HCC screening. Our objective is to determine the diagnostic performance of AFP, AFP-L3/AFP, DCP, and GPC-3 for the detection of HCC, particularly early-stage tumors meeting the Milan criteria.

METHODS/DESIGN

We will include cross-sectional studies that consecutively or randomly recruit target populations. We will search the Cochrane Library, Medline, Embase, Science Citation Index, and the Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure. We will also search the MEDION and ARIF databases to identify diagnostic systematic reviews that include primary studies. Reference lists of relevant reviews will be searched for additional trials. Language restrictions will not be applied. Two reviewers will independently screen study eligibility and extract data. Methodological quality will be assessed according to the revised tool for the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2). Two authors will apply the QUADAS-2 assessment to all the included studies, and any discrepancies will be resolved by the third author. The following test characteristics will be extracted into 2 × 2 tables for all included studies: true positives, false positives, true negatives, and false negatives. Study-specific estimates of sensitivity and specificity with 95% confidence intervals will be displayed in forest plots. When possible, we will use the bivariate random-effects model or the Rutter and Gatsonis hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic model for statistical analysis. To investigate heterogeneity, we will include study designs, population characteristics, test characteristics, and types of reference standard as the study-level variables.

DISCUSSION

Our systematic review will allow patients, clinicians, and researchers to determine the diagnostic performance of AFP, AFP-L3/AFP, DCP, and GPC-3 for the detection of early-stage HCC and the potential roles of these diagnostic biomarkers in the existing diagnostic pathways.Systematic Review Registration: PROSPERO 2013; CRD42013003879.

The assessment of data mining for the prediction of therapeutic outcome in 3719 Egyptian patients with chronic hepatitis C

INTRODUCTION

Decision-tree analysis; a core component of data mining analysis can build predictive models for the therapeutic outcome to antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients.

AIM

To develop a prediction model for the end virological response (ETR) to pegylated interferon PEG-IFN plus ribavirin (RBV) therapy in chronic HCV patients using routine clinical, laboratory, and histopathological data.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Retrospective initial data (19 attributes) from 3719 Egyptian patients with chronic HCV presumably genotype-4 was assigned to model building using the J48 decision tree-inducing algorithm (Weka implementation of C4.5). All patients received PEG-IFN plus RBV at Cairo-Fatemia Hospital, Cairo, Egypt in the context of the national treatment program. Factors predictive of ETR were explored and patients were classified into seven subgroups according to the different rates of ETR. The universality of the decision-tree model was subjected to a 10-fold cross-internal validation in addition to external validation using an independent dataset collected of 200 chronic HCV patients.

RESULTS

At week 48, overall ETR was 54% according to intention to treat protocol. The decision-tree model included AFP level (<8.08 ng/ml) which was associated with high probability of ETR (73%) followed by stages of fibrosis and Hb levels according to the patients' gender followed by the age of patients.

CONCLUSION

In a decision-tree model for the prediction for antiviral therapy in chronic HCV patients, AFP level was the initial split variable at a cutoff of 8.08 ng/ml. This model could represent a potential tool to identify patients' likelihood of response among difficult-to-treat presumably genotype-4 chronic HCV patients and could support clinical decisions regarding the proper selection of patients for therapy without imposing any additional costs.

Proteomic differences between hepatocellular carcinoma and nontumorous liver tissue investigated by a combined gel-based and label-free quantitative proteomics study

Proteomics-based clinical studies have been shown to be promising strategies for the discovery of novel biomarkers of a particular disease. Here, we present a study of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) that combines complementary two-dimensional difference in gel electrophoresis (2D-DIGE) and liquid chromatography (LC-MS)-based approaches of quantitative proteomics. In our proteomic experiments, we analyzed a set of 14 samples (7 × HCC versus 7 × nontumorous liver tissue) with both techniques. Thereby we identified 573 proteins that were differentially expressed between the experimental groups. Among these, only 51 differentially expressed proteins were identified irrespective of the applied approach. Using Western blotting and immunohistochemical analysis the regulation patterns of six selected proteins from the study overlap (inorganic pyrophosphatase 1 (PPA1), tumor necrosis factor type 1 receptor-associated protein 1 (TRAP1), betaine-homocysteine S-methyltransferase 1 (BHMT)) were successfully verified within the same sample set. In addition, the up-regulations of selected proteins from the complements of both approaches (major vault protein (MVP), gelsolin (GSN), chloride intracellular channel protein 1 (CLIC1)) were also reproducible. Within a second independent verification set (n = 33) the altered protein expression levels of major vault protein and betaine-homocysteine S-methyltransferase were further confirmed by Western blots quantitatively analyzed via densitometry. For the other candidates slight but nonsignificant trends were detectable in this independent cohort. Based on these results we assume that major vault protein and betaine-homocysteine S-methyltransferase have the potential to act as diagnostic HCC biomarker candidates that are worth to be followed in further validation studies.

Changes of serum alpha-fetoprotein and alpha-fetoprotein-L3 after hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma: prognostic significance

BACKGROUND

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is the most established tumor marker of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but one of its limitations is non-specificity. Many studies have demonstrated that alpha-fetoprotein-L3 (AFP-L3) is more specific than AFP in the early diagnosis and prognosis of HCC. However, there is a lack of knowledge about the post-hepatectomy profiles of serum AFP and AFP-L3 values in HCC patients. To identify the profiles after surgical resection of HCC, we analyzed the correlation between the profiles and postoperative HCC recurrence or survival, and evaluated their utility in predicting postoperative therapeutic efficacy and prognosis.

METHODS

From August 2003 to December 2004, 318 patients with positive serum AFP who had received surgical resections were enrolled in this study. Preoperative and postoperative serum AFP and AFP-L3 levels were measured simultaneously and regularly, and their postoperative profiles during a long-term follow-up were recorded and summarized.

RESULTS

A high ratio of AFP-L3 to total AFP was shown to correlate with pathologic features of aggressiveness. The overall 1-, 3-, and 5-year recurrence rates of the whole series were 28%, 57%, and 84%, and the overall survival rates were 86%, 61%, and 33%, respectively. The changes of serum AFP and AFP-L3 after hepatectomy for HCC were classified into 3 groups (group A: AFP-L3 undetectable; group B: AFP-L3 <10%; and group C: AFP-L3 >10%). Patients with positive postoperative AFP-L3 had significantly earlier recurrence than those with negative results. The overall survival was significantly shorter in the positive groups than in the groups negative for postoperative AFP-L3.

CONCLUSION

Post-hepatectomy changes in serum AFP and AFP-L3 levels occurred in three distinct patterns, which were closely correlated with HCC recurrence and patient survival with different prognostic values.

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma

The only hope for a cure from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) rests on early diagnosis as it can be attained through semiannual surveillance with abdominal ultrasound (US) of patients at risk. While the strategy of semiannual screening rests on the growth rate of the tumor that in cirrhotic patients takes 6 months to double its volume, on average, the noninvasive radiological diagnosis of HCC is possible in cirrhotic patients with a de novo HCC and patients with chronic hepatitis B. More recently, metabolic diseases related to insulin resistance, including diabetes and obesity, have been recognized to be causally related to HCC as well, in most patients bridging HCC to the histopathological diagnosis of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). While the endpoint of an early diagnosis is achieved quite easily in most patients with >1 cm HCC by computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) demonstrating the specific pattern of an intense contrast uptake during the arterial phase (wash-in) and contrast wash-out during the venous/delayed phase, nodules <1 cm in size are more difficult to diagnose, almost invariably requiring an enhanced follow up with three monthly examinations with US until they grow in size or change their echo pattern. Owing to the lack of robust controlled evidence demonstrating a clinical benefit of surveillance, the real support for screening for liver cancer comes from the striking differences in response to therapy between screened populations in whom HCC is diagnosed and treated at early stages and patients with more advanced, incidentally detected tumors. This notwithstanding, numerous barriers work against screening effectiveness, including limited or outdated knowledge, lack of financial incentives, and limited access to appropriate testing and treatment. Though strengthening prediction in individual patients is expected to improve the cost-effectiveness ratio of screening, the benefits of approaches like pretreatment patient stratification by clinical, histologic, and genetic scores remain uncertain, while the worthiness of excluding patients with severe comorbidities and aged individuals is still debated.

Up-regulated aldo-keto reductase family 1 member B10 in chronic hepatitis C: association with serum alpha-fetoprotein and hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Elevated serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is not only a diagnostic marker for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but is also a risk factor for HCC in chronic hepatitis C patients who do not have HCC.

AIM

The aim was to analyse the hepatic gene expression signature in chronic hepatitis C patients with elevated AFP, who were at high risk for HCC.

METHODS

Liver tissue samples from 48 chronic hepatitis C patients were stratified by their serum AFP levels and analysed for gene expression profiles. The association between aldo-keto reductase family 1 member B10 (AKR1B10) expression and serum AFP was confirmed by quantitative real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) and immunohistochemical analyses. A matched case-control study was performed to evaluate the risk of AKR1B10 expression for HCC development.

RESULTS

Distinct hepatic gene expression patterns were demonstrated in patients with elevated AFP (≥10 ng/mL) and normal AFP (<10 ng/mL). Of the 627 differently expressed genes, the most abundantly expressed gene in patients with elevated AFP was AKR1B10 (fold change, 26.2; P < 0.001), which was originally isolated as an overexpressed gene in human HCC. The qRT-PCR and immunohistochemical studies confirmed a proportional correlation between AKR1B10 expression and serum AFP. A matched case-control study identified that AKR1B10 up-regulation (>6%) was an independent risk factor for HCC development (hazard ratio, 21.4; P = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

AKR1B10 was up-regulated in association with serum AFP, and was an independent risk factor for HCC in chronic hepatitis C patients, suggesting its possible involvement at a very early stage of hepatocarcinogenesis.

Alpha-fetoprotein has no prognostic role in small hepatocellular carcinoma identified during surveillance in compensated cirrhosis

Alpha-fetoprotein is a tumor marker that has been used for surveillance and diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with cirrhosis. The prognostic capability of this marker in patients with HCC has not been clearly defined. In this study our aim was to evaluate the prognostic usefulness of serum alpha-fetoprotein in patients with well-compensated cirrhosis, optimal performance status, and small HCC identified during periodic surveillance ultrasound who were treated with curative intent. Among the 3,027 patients included in the Italian Liver Cancer study group database, we selected 205 Child-Pugh class A and Eastern Cooperative Group Performance Status 0 patients with cirrhosis with a single HCC ≤ 3 cm of diameter diagnosed during surveillance who were treated with curative intent (hepatic resection, liver transplantation, percutaneous ethanol injection, radiofrequency thermal ablation). Patients were subdivided according to alpha-fetoprotein serum levels (i.e., normal ≤ 20 ng/mL; mildly elevated 21-200 ng/mL; markedly elevated >200 ng/mL). Patient survival, as assessed by the Kaplan-Meier method, was not significantly different among the three alpha-fetoprotein classes (P = 0.493). The same result was obtained in the subgroup of patients with a single HCC ≤ 2 cm (P = 0.714). An alpha-fetoprotein serum level of 100 ng/mL identified by receiver operating characteristic curve had inadequate accuracy (area under the curve = 0.536, 95% confidence interval = 0.465-0.606) to discriminate between survivors and deceased patients.

CONCLUSION

Alpha-fetoprotein serum levels have no prognostic meaning in well-compensated cirrhosis patients with single, small HCC treated with curative intent.

Surveillance programmes for early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma

Primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most commonly diagnosed primary malignancy of the liver. The number of new diagnosed cases of HCC seems to be on a rise worldwide. HCC is typically diagnosed in patients with underlying liver cirrhosis (> 90% cases) regardless of aetiology; over a five-year follow-up period HCC develops in 15–20% of patients with cirrhosis. Patients who are at a high risk of HCC development (i.e. individuals with liver cirrhosis, especially/or chronically infected with HBV or HCV) should undergo regular screening for HCC; the current screening standard comprises liver ultrasonography and determination of α-fetoprotein (AFP) concentration in blood serum at ca. 6 months’ intervals (now has been excluded from current diagnostic standards). Only such diagnostic methods are capable of detecting HCC early, and thus make it possible to treat the cancer effectively.

Serum levels of soluble CD25 as a marker for hepatocellular carcinoma

In a previous study, we showed that the level of soluble CD25 (sCD25) was elevated in a small series of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In the present study, we determined the capacity of serum levels of sCD25 to detect the presence and the early stage of HCC using a larger cohort of HCC patients and evaluated the correlation between sCD25 level and tumor burden. Serum levels of sCD25 were quantified using ELISA in patients with HCC (n=145), controls with advanced fibrosis (n=61) and healthy control subjects (n=30). The levels of sCD25 in patients with HCC (median, 6,955 pg/ml) were significantly higher than those in cirrhosis-only patients (4,310 pg/ml; P<0.0001). At a cut-off value of 2,180 pg/ml, sCD25 had a sensitivity of 92.3% and a specificity of 37.7% in detecting HCC presence [area under the curve (AUC) of 0.685; P<0.0001]. By comparison, α-fetoprotein (AFP) had a sensitivity of 53.8% and a specificity of 86.8% at a cut-off value of 32.8 ng/ml (AUC=0.755; P<0.0001) for HCC presence detection. For early HCC, the sensitivity of sCD25 was 89.6% and its specificity was 39.3% (AUC=0.630; P<0.0001) at a cut-off value of 2,859 pg/ml, while AFP had a sensitivity of 41.7% and a specificity of 82.6% at a cut-off value of 20.6 ng/ml (AUC=0.630; P=0.0257). We also found a significant positive correlation between serum levels of sCD25 and tumor stage. In the present study study, sCD25 was more effective than AFP at detecting the presence and early stages of HCC. This immune factor may hold promise as a novel predictive marker of HCC presence and may be useful in distinguishing early HCC from advanced cirrhosis, currently areas of global unmet need.

Management of HCC

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a highly prevalent and lethal neoplasia, the management of which has significantly improved during the last few years. A better knowledge of the natural history of the tumor and the development of staging systems that stratify patients according to the characteristics of the tumor, the liver disease, and the performance status, such as the BCLC (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer) system, have led to a better prediction of prognosis and to a most appropriate treatment approach. Today curative therapies (resection, transplantation, ablation) can improve survival in patients diagnosed at an early HCC stage and offer a potential long-term cure. Patients with intermediate stage HCC benefit from chemoembolization and those diagnosed at advanced stage benefit from sorafenib, a multikinase inhibitor with antiangiogenic and antiproliferative effects. In this article we review the current management in HCC and the new advances in this field.

MAGE-4 gene m-RNA and TGF in blood as potential biochemical markers for HCC in HCV-infected patients

Progression from chronic hepatitis C virus infection to cirrhosis then to hepatocellular carcinoma usually results in some protein changes in peripheral blood. We evaluated MAGE-4 mRNA, TGFβ1 and AFP in peripheral blood as potential biochemical markers for diagnosis and prognosis of some complications of HCV infection. MAGE-4 mRNA in blood by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, serum TGF-Β1 and AFP by ELISA was assayed in seventy-five individuals who were classified into five groups: group I (control) comprised fifteen apparently healthy volunteers, group II involved fifteen HCV-infected patients without cirrhosis, group III involved fifteen HCV fifteen HCV-infected patients with cirrhosis, group IV included fifteen HCV-infected patients with cirrhosis and early stage HCC, and group V included fifteen HCV cirrhotic patients and late-stage HCC. We found that the frequency of positivity of MAGE-4 among the late hepatoma group was 40 %, while in the early hepatoma group the positivity was 6.7 %. The results for TGF-Β1 revealed a significant increase in serum TGF-Β1 in groups IV and V as compared to control, II, III groups. The obtained results of AFP showed a significant positive increase in serum AFP in groups IV and V when compared to groups II and III. Detection of MAGE-4 transcripts in blood, especially with follow-up survey, may help to predict the prognosis and monitoring of the response to the therapy, and serum TGF-Β1 level in HCC patients is directly correlated with metastasis and recurrence of tumors and increases gradually with the progression of HCC.

Clinical significance of elevated alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) in patients with chronic hepatitis C without hepatocellular carcinoma in upper EGYPT

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

Egypt has the highest prevalence of hepatitis C in the world. Alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) is important in the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but elevated AFP levels have also been observed in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) without HCC. We evaluated the clinical correlation between elevated AFP levels and CHC. We analysed data from a population-based cohort of patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection to assess the prevalence of elevated serum AFP, to determine its association with clinical and virologic parameters and with clinical outcomes.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

From December 2009 to April 2011, 121 patients with no evidence of HCC with regular abdominal ultrasound or other imaging studies (multislice computed tomography (MSCT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)) were controlled by a chart review.

RESULTS

The prevalence of elevated AFP ≥10ngml(-1) was 11.6%. Univariate analysis revealed that fibrosis stage III/IV, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) more than 45IUl(-1) and platelet count less than 150×10(9) l(-1) were significantly associated with elevated AFP. Multivariate analysis revealed that the independent variable associated with elevated serum AFP was fibrosis stage III/IV, p=0.015. Multivariate analysis also revealed that AST>45IUl(-1) and AFP ≥10 ngml(-1) were associated with advanced fibrosis using a cut-off AFP value >10 ngml(-1). The sensitivity and specificity of diagnosing fibrosis score III/IV were 26.1% and 97.3%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated AFP levels were observed in 11.65% of patients with CHC. Elevated AFP levels correlated positively with fibrosis stage III/IV; ALT elevation, thrombocytopenia and AFP ≥10 ngml(-1) were associated with advanced fibrosis.

Determinants of serum alpha-fetoprotein levels in hepatitis C-infected patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Little information is available about what factors determine serum levels of alpha fetoprotein (AFP) (eg, demographic, virologic, or clinical features) among individuals who do not develop hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This information might improve AFP-based algorithms for HCC detection.

METHODS

We examined data from patients in the national Veterans' Affairs Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) Clinical Case Registry who received at least 1 AFP test (258,275 AFP tests in 76,357 patients; 1.9% developed HCC). We constructed hierarchical multivariate models of AFP levels. Potential predictors of AFP values included patients' sex, race, cirrhosis status, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, HCV genotype, level of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) within 30 days before the AFP test, time to diagnosis of HCC, and time elapsed from the HCV index date.

RESULTS

Significant determinants for increased levels of AFP included presence of cirrhosis, higher MELD scores, and increased levels of ALT. AFP levels were also affected by the interaction between ALT levels and the presence and time to development of HCC. Among patients who did not have HCC, the AFP level increased with the level of ALT; the AFP values in the presence of ALT 37-56 U/L, ALT 57-92 U/L, or ALT >92 U/L were 16%, 35%, and 68% higher, respectively, than AFP values at ALT 0-36 U/L. However, patients who developed HCC within 30 days of receiving the AFP test had a lower rate of increase in AFP with each higher category of ALT level, with increases of 31%, 39%, and 37% for the same respective ALT categories.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with chronic HCV infection, AFP and ALT values correlate; however, among patients with HCC, levels of AFP increase disproportionately to or unaccompanied by increases in levels of ALT. The prognostic and diagnostic value of AFP levels might be increased by adjusting for ALT values.

Decrease in alpha-fetoprotein levels predicts reduced incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis C virus infection receiving interferon therapy: a single center study

BACKGROUND

Increasing evidence suggests the efficacy of interferon therapy for hepatitis C in reducing the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to identify predictive markers for the risk of HCC incidence in chronic hepatitis C patients receiving interferon therapy.

METHODS

A total of 382 patients were treated with standard interferon or pegylated interferon in combination with ribavirin for chronic hepatitis C in a single center and evaluated for variables predictive of HCC incidence.

RESULTS

Incidence rates of HCC after interferon therapy were 6.6% at 5 years and 13.4% at 8 years. Non-sustained virological response (non-SVR) to antiviral therapy was an independent predictor for incidence of HCC in the total study population. Among 197 non-SVR patients, independent predictive factors were an average alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) integration value ≥10 ng/mL and male gender. Even in patients whose AFP levels before interferon therapy were ≥10 ng/mL, reduction of average AFP integration value to <10 ng/mL by treatment was strongly associated with a reduced incidence of HCC. This was significant compared to patients with average AFP integration values of ≥10 ng/mL (P = 0.009).

CONCLUSIONS

Achieving sustained virological response (SVR) by interferon therapy reduces the incidence of HCC in hepatitis C patients treated with interferon. Among non-SVR patients, a decrease in the AFP integration value by interferon therapy closely correlates with reduced risk of HCC incidence after treatment.

Frequency of elevated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) biomarkers in patients with advanced hepatitis C

OBJECTIVES

Prospective studies of serum hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) biomarkers in patients with advanced hepatitis C are lacking. The aim of this study was to determine the frequencies and performance of elevated α-fetoprotein (AFP), AFP-L3, and des-γ-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) levels as HCC biomarkers in advanced hepatitis C.

METHODS

Patients in the HALT-C Trial were tested every 3 months for 42 months. Screening ultrasound was performed every 12 months. Levels of biomarkers were compared in patients in whom HCC did or did not develop.

RESULTS

In all, 855 patients were evaluated; HCC developed in 46. Among patients without HCC, 73.2% had AFP consistently <20, 24.5% had at least one AFP between 20 and 199, and 2.3% had at least one AFP value ≥200 ng/ml; 73.7% had DCP consistently <90, 11.6% had at least one DCP between 90 and 149, and 14.7% had at least one DCP value ≥150 mAU/ml. AFP-L3 ≥10% was present at least once in 9.0% and in 17.1% of those with AFP ≥20 ng/ml. Among all patients with elevated biomarkers, a diagnosis of HCC was made in 0-31.6% (depending on the biomarker and cutoff) during the subsequent 24 months. AFP ≥200 ng/ml had the highest specificity (99%), but sensitivity was ≤20%. DCP ≥40 mAU/ml had the highest sensitivity (76%), but specificity was ≤58%. Independent predictors of elevated AFP were gender (female), race (Black), more advanced disease, and HCC. Elevated DCP was associated with more advanced disease and HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Mild-moderate elevations in total AFP and DCP but not in AFP-L3 occur frequently in patients with chronic hepatitis C and advanced fibrosis, are related to factors other than HCC, and are poor predictors of HCC.

Highly sensitive Lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive α-fetoprotein: a new tool for the management of hepatocellular carcinoma

OBJECTIVES

The highly sensitive Lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive α-fetoprotein (hs-AFP-L3), measured using a newly developed method involving microfluidics-based separation technology, was evaluated as a new tool for the management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in clinical practice.

METHODS

The sensitivity and specificity of hs-AFP-L3 for the diagnosis of HCC and its ability to predict the outcome of patients with HCC were analyzed based on reported studies.

RESULTS

Compared to AFP-L3 measured using conventional methods, the sensitivity of hs-AFP-L3 was markedly higher and the specificity was comparable. In all studies, multivariate analysis found that elevation of hs-AFP-L3 was an independent factor that affected patient survival.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of hs-AFP-L3 improves the true positive rate of patients with HCC at diagnosis, maintaining the high specificity of AFP-L3 and its indicative value for poor prognosis. The utility of this tumor marker for prediction of the development of HCC in high-risk patients under surveillance needs to be investigated.

Novel Lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive fraction of α-fetoprotein: a biomarker of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence in patients with low α-fetoprotein concentrations

BACKGROUND

Lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive fraction of α-fetoprotein (AFP-L3) is a specific marker used to detect hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, its clinical utility is not sufficient in patients with low total AFP concentrations because of limitations in instrument sensitivity. Recent advances have led to the introduction of a highly sensitive AFP-L3% assay (sensitive AFP-L3%), provided by a novel on-chip, liquid-phase binding assay. This cross-sectional study was conducted to evaluate the clinical significance of the sensitive AFP-L3% in determining HCC recurrence in patients with low total AFP concentrations.

METHODS

A total of 370 consecutive patients with HCC were screened within 1-3 months of locoregional treatment, and 215 of the 370 patients showed serum AFP <20 ng/ml. Total AFP, sensitive AFP-L3%, and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) were measured in those 215 patients and HCC recurrence was evaluated by radiological findings. Optimal cutoff values of the markers for detecting HCC recurrence were obtained on the basis of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

The area under the ROC curve of the total AFP, sensitive AFP-L3%, and DCP in HCC patients with serum AFP <20 ng/ml were 0.638, 0.724, and 0.779, respectively. The diagnostic accuracies of the total AFP, sensitive AFP-L3%, and DCP were 60.9% (cutoff value 5 ng/ml), 67.7% (cutoff value 7%), and 64.6% (cutoff value 40 ng/ml), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The new sensitive AFP-L3% assay provides great utility in determining HCC recurrence in patients with low AFP concentrations. Further studies focusing on the combinatorial use of the markers (total AFP, sensitive AFP-L3%, and DCP) are required.

A prospective study of the rate of progression in compensated, histologically advanced chronic hepatitis C

The incidence of liver disease progression among subjects with histologically advanced but compensated chronic hepatitis C is incomplete. The Hepatitis C Antiviral Long-term Treatment against Cirrhosis Trial was a randomized study of 3.5 years of maintenance peginterferon treatment on liver disease progression among patients who had not cleared virus on peginterferon and ribavirin therapy. Patients were followed subsequently off therapy. Because maintenance peginterferon treatment did not alter liver disease progression, we analyzed treated and control patients together. Among 1,050 subjects (60% advanced fibrosis, 40% cirrhosis), we determined the rate of progression to cirrhosis over 4 years and of clinical outcomes over 8 years. Among patients with fibrosis, the incidence of cirrhosis was 9.9% per year. Six hundred seventy-nine clinical outcomes occurred among 329 subjects. Initial clinical outcomes occurred more frequently among subjects with cirrhosis (7.5% per year) than subjects with fibrosis (3.3% per year) (P<0.0001). Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score≥7 was the most common first outcome, followed by hepatocellular carcinoma. Following occurrence of a CTP score≥7, the rate of subsequent events increased to 12.9% per year, including a death rate of 10% per year. Age and sex did not influence outcome rates. Baseline platelet count was a strong predictor of all clinical outcomes. During the 8 years of follow-up, death or liver transplantation occurred among 12.2% of patients with advanced fibrosis and 31.5% of those with cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

Among patients with advanced hepatitis C who failed peginterferon and ribavirin therapy, the rate of liver-related outcomes, including death and liver transplantation, is high, especially once the CTP score reaches at least 7.

A prospective study of the rate of progression in compensated, histologically advanced chronic hepatitis C

The incidence of liver disease progression among subjects with histologically advanced but compensated chronic hepatitis C is incomplete. The Hepatitis C Antiviral Long-term Treatment against Cirrhosis Trial was a randomized study of 3.5 years of maintenance peginterferon treatment on liver disease progression among patients who had not cleared virus on peginterferon and ribavirin therapy. Patients were followed subsequently off therapy. Because maintenance peginterferon treatment did not alter liver disease progression, we analyzed treated and control patients together. Among 1,050 subjects (60% advanced fibrosis, 40% cirrhosis), we determined the rate of progression to cirrhosis over 4 years and of clinical outcomes over 8 years. Among patients with fibrosis, the incidence of cirrhosis was 9.9% per year. Six hundred seventy-nine clinical outcomes occurred among 329 subjects. Initial clinical outcomes occurred more frequently among subjects with cirrhosis (7.5% per year) than subjects with fibrosis (3.3% per year) (P<0.0001). Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score≥7 was the most common first outcome, followed by hepatocellular carcinoma. Following occurrence of a CTP score≥7, the rate of subsequent events increased to 12.9% per year, including a death rate of 10% per year. Age and sex did not influence outcome rates. Baseline platelet count was a strong predictor of all clinical outcomes. During the 8 years of follow-up, death or liver transplantation occurred among 12.2% of patients with advanced fibrosis and 31.5% of those with cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

Among patients with advanced hepatitis C who failed peginterferon and ribavirin therapy, the rate of liver-related outcomes, including death and liver transplantation, is high, especially once the CTP score reaches at least 7.