Outcomes after two years of providing antiretroviral treatment in Khayelitsha, South Africa

Retention in an antiretroviral therapy programme during an era of decreasing drug cost in Limbe, Cameroon

BACKGROUND

In 2002, Cameroon initiated scale up of antiretroviral therapy (ART); on 1 October 2004, a substantial reduction in ART cost occurred. We assessed the impact of this event and other factors on enrolment and retention in care among HIV-infected patients initiating ART from February 2002 to December 2005 at the single ART clinic serving the Southwest Region in Limbe, Cameroon.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed clinical and pharmacy payment records of HIV-infected patients initiating ART according to national guidelines. We compared two cohorts of patients, enrolled before and after 1 October 2004, to determine if price reduction was associated with enhanced enrolment. We assessed factors associated with retention and survival by Cox proportional hazards models. Retention in care implied patients who had contact with the healthcare system as of 31 December 2005 (including those who were transferred to continue care in other ART centres), although these patients may have interrupted therapy at some time. A patient who was not retained in care may have dropped out (lost to follow up) or died.

RESULTS

Mean enrolment rates for 2920 patients who initiated ART before and after the price reduction were 46.5 and 95.5 persons/month, respectively (p < 0.001). The probabilities of remaining alive and in care were 0.66 (95% CI 0.64-0.68) at six months, 0.58 (95% CI 0.56-0.60) at one year, 0.47 (95% CI 0.45-0.49) at two years and 0.35 (95% CI 0.32-0.38) at three years; they were not significantly different between the two cohorts of patients enrolled before and after the price reduction over the first 15 months of comparable follow up (hazard ratio 1.1; 95% CI 0.9-1.2, p = 0.27). In multivariable analysis using multiple imputations to compensate for missing values, factors associated with dropping out of care or dying were male gender (HR 1.33 [1.18-1.50], p = 0.003), treatment paid by self, family or partly by other (HR 3.05 [1.99-4.67], p < 0.001), and, compared with residents of Limbe, living more than 150 km from Limbe (HR 1.41 [1.18-1.69], p < 0.001), or being residents of Douala (HR 1.51 [1.16-1.98], p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Reducing the cost of ART increased enrolment of clients in the programme, but did not change retention in care. In a system where most clients pay for ART, an accessible clinic location may be more important than the cost of medication for retention in care. Decentralizing ART clinics might improve retention and survival among patients on ART.

WHO 2010 guidelines for prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission in Zimbabwe: modeling clinical outcomes in infants and mothers

BACKGROUND

The Zimbabwean national prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) program provided primarily single-dose nevirapine (sdNVP) from 2002-2009 and is currently replacing sdNVP with more effective antiretroviral (ARV) regimens.

METHODS

Published HIV and PMTCT models, with local trial and programmatic data, were used to simulate a cohort of HIV-infected, pregnant/breastfeeding women in Zimbabwe (mean age 24.0 years, mean CD4 451 cells/µL). We compared five PMTCT regimens at a fixed level of PMTCT medication uptake: 1) no antenatal ARVs (comparator); 2) sdNVP; 3) WHO 2010 guidelines using "Option A" (zidovudine during pregnancy/infant NVP during breastfeeding for women without advanced HIV disease; lifelong 3-drug antiretroviral therapy (ART) for women with advanced disease); 4) WHO "Option B" (ART during pregnancy/breastfeeding without advanced disease; lifelong ART with advanced disease); and 5) "Option B+:" lifelong ART for all pregnant/breastfeeding, HIV-infected women. Pediatric (4-6 week and 18-month infection risk, 2-year survival) and maternal (2- and 5-year survival, life expectancy from delivery) outcomes were projected.

RESULTS

Eighteen-month pediatric infection risks ranged from 25.8% (no antenatal ARVs) to 10.9% (Options B/B+). Although maternal short-term outcomes (2- and 5-year survival) varied only slightly by regimen, maternal life expectancy was reduced after receipt of sdNVP (13.8 years) or Option B (13.9 years) compared to no antenatal ARVs (14.0 years), Option A (14.0 years), or Option B+ (14.5 years).

CONCLUSIONS

Replacement of sdNVP with currently recommended regimens for PMTCT (WHO Options A, B, or B+) is necessary to reduce infant HIV infection risk in Zimbabwe. The planned transition to Option A may also improve both pediatric and maternal outcomes.

Time to initiation of antiretroviral therapy among patients with HIV-associated tuberculosis in Cape Town, South Africa

We studied the time interval between starting tuberculosis treatment and commencing antiretroviral treatment (ART) in HIV-infected patients (n = 1433; median CD4 count 71 cells per microliter, interquartile range: 32-132) attending 3 South African township ART services between 2002 and 2008. The overall median delay was 2.66 months (interquartile range: 1.58-4.17). In adjusted analyses, delays varied between treatment sites but were shorter for patients with lower CD4 counts and those treated in more recent calendar years. During the most recent period (2007-2008), 4.7%, 19.7%, and 51.1% of patients started ART within 2, 4, and 8 weeks of tuberculosis treatment, respectively. Operational barriers must be tackled to permit further acceleration of ART initiation as recommended by 2010 WHO ART guidelines.

Economic Status and Coping Mechanisms of Individuals Seeking HIV Care in Uganda

This study uses novel data to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the demographic and economic circumstances facing HIV-positive individuals who have just entered HIV care in Uganda. While the provision of HIV care and antiretroviral therapy (ART) may improve physical health, to achieve the broader goal of improving the quality of life and socioeconomic viability of people living with HIV/AIDS, appropriate social and economic programmes may need to complement treatment. We report results from baseline data of a longitudinal, prospective cohort study with a 12-month follow-up period in two Ugandan HIV clinics. We use t-tests to examine differences across sample subpopulations and in a second step employ multivariate logistic and ordinary least squares regressions. The investigation of retrospective variables such as the respondent's employment and income history, as well as changes in household composition, allows us to draw conclusions about the shocks experienced by households with HIV-positive members. We find that the study participants have experienced job loss and declining household income since testing HIV-positive, mainly due to worsened health status of the respondent. We also find that households use a range of coping mechanisms, such as changes in household composition or borrowing in response to these shocks, but that these strategies are not accessible to all types of households to the same degree. The findings highlight the importance of ART, not only to improve physical health, but also as a first necessary (though potentially not sufficient) step to help households restore their economic capacity.

Masculinity as a barrier to men's use of HIV services in Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

A growing number of studies highlight men's disinclination to make use of HIV services. This suggests there are factors that prevent men from engaging with health services and an urgent need to unpack the forms of sociality that determine men's acceptance or rejection of HIV services.

METHODS

Drawing on the perspectives of 53 antiretroviral drug users and 25 healthcare providers, we examine qualitatively how local constructions of masculinity in rural Zimbabwe impact on men's use of HIV services.

RESULTS

Informants reported a clear and hegemonic notion of masculinity that required men to be and act in control, to have know-how, be strong, resilient, disease free, highly sexual and economically productive. However, such traits were in direct conflict with the 'good patient' persona who is expected to accept being HIV positive, take instructions from nurses and engage in health-enabling behaviours such as attending regular hospital visits and refraining from alcohol and unprotected extra-marital sex. This conflict between local understandings of manhood and biopolitical representations of 'a good patient' can provide a possible explanation to why so many men do not make use of HIV services in Zimbabwe. However, once men had been counselled and had the opportunity to reflect upon the impact of ART on their productivity and social value, it was possible for some to construct new and more ART-friendly versions of masculinity.

CONCLUSION

We urge HIV service providers to consider the obstacles that prevent many men from accessing their services and argue for community-based and driven initiatives that facilitate safe and supportive social spaces for men to openly discuss social constructions of masculinity as well as renegotiate more health-enabling masculinities.

Factors influencing retention in care after starting antiretroviral therapy in a rural South African programme

Introduction

The prognosis of patients with HIV in Africa has improved with the widespread use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) but these successes are threatened by low rates of long-term retention in care. There are limited data on predictors of retention in care, particularly from rural sites.

Methods

Prospective cohort analysis of outcome measures in adults from a rural HIV care programme in Madwaleni, Eastern Cape, South Africa. The ART programme operates from Madwaleni hospital and seven primary care feeder clinics with full integration between inpatient and outpatient services. Outreach workers conducted home visits for defaulters.

Results

1803 adults initiated ART from June 2005 to May 2009. At the end of the study period 82.4% were in active care or had transferred elsewhere, 11.1% had died and 6.5% were lost to follow-up (LTFU). Independent predictors associated with an increased risk of LTFU were CD4 nadir >200, initiating ART as an inpatient or while pregnant, and younger age, while being in care for >6 months before initiating ART was associated with a reduced risk. Independent factors associated with an increased risk of mortality were baseline CD4 count <50 and initiating ART as an inpatient, while being in care for >6 months before initiating ART and initiating ART while pregnant were associated with a reduced risk.

Conclusions

Serving a socioeconomically deprived rural population is not a barrier to successful ART delivery. Patients initiating ART while pregnant and inpatients may require additional counselling and support to reduce LTFU. Providing HIV care for patients not yet eligible for ART may be protective against being LTFU and dying after ART initiation.

Patient retention in antiretroviral therapy programs up to three years on treatment in sub-Saharan Africa, 2007-2009: systematic review

Objectives

To estimate the proportion of all-cause adult patient attrition from antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs in service delivery settings in sub-Saharan Africa through 36 months on treatment.

Methods

We identified cohorts within Ovid Medline, ISI Web of Knowledge, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and four conference abstract archives. We summarized retention rates from studies describing observational cohorts from sub-Saharan Africa reporting on adult HIV 1- infected patients initiating first-line three-drug ART. We estimated all-cause attrition rates for 6, 12, 18, 24, or 36 months after ART initiation including patients who died or were lost to follow-up (as defined by the author), but excluding transferred patients.

Results

We analysed 33 sources describing 39 cohorts and 226 307 patients. Patients were more likely to be female (median 65%) and had a median age at initiation of 37 (range 34–40). Median starting CD4 count was 109 cells/mm³. Loss to follow-up was the most common cause of attrition (59%), followed by death (41%). Median attrition at 12, 24 and 36 months was 22.6% (range 7%–45%), 25% (range 11%–32%) and 29.5% (range 13%–36.1%) respectively. After pooling data in a random-effects meta-analysis, retention declined from 86.1% at 6 months to 80.2% at 12 months, 76.8% at 24 months and 72.3% at 36 months. Adjusting for variable follow-up time in a sensitivity analysis, 24 month retention was 70.0% (range: 66.7%–73.3%), while 36 month retention was 64.6% (range: 57.5%–72.1%).

Conclusions

Our findings document the difficulties in retaining patients in care for lifelong treatment, and the progress being made in raising overall retention rates.

Morbidity in HIV-1-infected individuals before and after the introduction of antiretroviral therapy: a longitudinal study of a population-based cohort in Uganda

BACKGROUND

We compared morbidities in HIV-1-infected patients before and after the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in a rural Ugandan cohort followed from 1990 to 2008. ART was introduced in 2004.

METHODS

Random-effects Poisson regression models were used to estimate incidence rates of World Health Organization (WHO) stage-defining diseases in HIV-infected individuals aged 13 years or older with known seroconversion dates, and in an age-stratified sample of HIV-negative individuals.

RESULTS

The most common morbid event was bacterial pneumonia, with an incidence of 7.4/100 person-years (pyr) among 309 HIV seroconverters and 1.3/100 pyr among 348 HIV-negative participants [hazard ratio (HR) 5.64; 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.6-8.8]. Among seroconverters, the incidence of the acquisition of any WHO stage-defining disease rose from 14.4/100 pyr (95% CI 11.1-18.6) in 1990-1998 to 46.0/100 pyr (95% CI 37.7-56.0) in 1999-2003. Following the introduction of ART, the incidence among seroconverters declined to 36.4/100 pyr (95% CI 27.1-48.9) in 2004-2005 and to 28.3/100 pyr (95% CI 21.2-37.8) in 2006-2008. At the individual level, a higher rate of acquiring any WHO stage-defining disease was independently associated with lower CD4 cell count, longer duration of HIV infection and older age. In addition, individuals who had been on ART for longer than 12 months had a substantially lower rate of any WHO stage disease than those not yet on ART (adjusted HR 0.35; 95% CI 0.2-0.6).

CONCLUSION

Morbidity in HIV-positive participants decreased following the introduction of ART, and this decline was more marked with increasing duration on ART. The benefits of decreased HIV-related morbidity from ART lend support to urgent efforts to ensure universal access to early diagnosis of HIV infection and to ART, especially in rural Africa.

Improved antiretroviral treatment outcome in a rural African setting is associated with cART initiation at higher CD4 cell counts and better general health condition

BACKGROUND

Data on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in remote rural African regions is increasing.

METHODS

We assessed prospectively initial cART in HIV-infected adults treated from 2005 to 2008 at St. Francis Designated District Hospital, Ifakara, Tanzania. Adherence was assisted by personal adherence supporters. We estimated risk factors of death or loss to follow-up by Cox regression during the first 12 months of cART.

RESULTS

Overall, 1,463 individuals initiated cART, which was nevirapine-based in 84.6%. The median age was 40 years (IQR 34-47), 35.4% were males, 7.6% had proven tuberculosis. Median CD4 cell count was 131 cells/μl and 24.8% had WHO stage 4. Median CD4 cell count increased by 61 and 130 cells/μl after 6 and 12 months, respectively. 215 (14.7%) patients modified their treatment, mostly due to toxicity (56%), in particular polyneuropathy and anemia. Overall, 129 patients died (8.8%) and 189 (12.9%) were lost to follow-up. In a multivariate analysis, low CD4 cells at starting cART were associated with poorer survival and loss to follow-up (HR 1.77, 95% CI 1.15-2.75, p=0.009; for CD4<50 compared to >100 cells/μl). Higher weight was strongly associated with better survival (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.51-0.76, p<0.001 per 10 kg increase).

CONCLUSIONS

cART initiation at higher CD4 cell counts and better general health condition reduces HIV related mortality in a rural African setting. Efforts must be made to promote earlier HIV diagnosis to start cART timely. More research is needed to evaluate effective strategies to follow cART at a peripheral level with limited technical possibilities.

Outcomes of antiretroviral treatment program in Ethiopia: retention of patients in care is a major challenge and varies across health facilities

BACKGROUND

Many resource-limited countries are scaling up antiretroviral treatment (ART) towards universal access. However, there are few studies which evaluated outcomes of ART programs in these countries. In addition, these studies generally include a limited number of facilities and patients creating a clear need for studies with a wide range of facilities and large numbers of patients. In this study, we intended to evaluate the outcomes of the ART services in 55 health facilities in Ethiopia.

METHODS

A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted to determine levels of patient retention in care, CD4 count and shift to second-line ART regimen in 30 hospitals and 25 health centers selected as sentinel sites for monitoring the outcomes of ART program in the country. The outcomes were determined at baseline, after 6, 12 and 24 months on ART. Data was collected from routine patient registers and charts, and entered and analyzed using EPI-Info statistical software.

RESULTS

Health facilities were able to retain 29,893 (80%), 20,079 (74%) and 5,069 (68%) of their patients after 6, 12 and 24 months on ART, respectively. Retention rates vary across health facilities, ranging from 51% to 85% after 24 months on ART. Mortality was 5%, 6% and 8% after 6, 12 and 24 months on ART. More than 79% of patients with available CD4-cell counts had a baseline CD4-cell counts less than 200 cells per micro-liter of blood. The median CD4-cell counts (based on patients who were retained after 24 months on ART) increased from 125 (inter-quartile (IQ), 68-189) at baseline to 242 (IQ, 161-343), 269 (IQ, 185-380) and 316 (IQ, 226-445) cells per micro-liter after 6, 12, and 24 months on ART, respectively. The transition to second-line ART remained very low, 0.33%, 0.58% and 2.13% after 6, 12 and 24 months on ART.

CONCLUSION

The outcomes of the ART services in the 55 health facilities in Ethiopia are similar to those in other countries. Retention of patients in care is a major challenge and varies across health facilities with high, medium and low retention rates. We therefore recommend further studies to understand the organization of care in health facilities with high, medium and low retention rates. It is also imperative that early initiation of patients on ART is taken seriously as more than 79% of the patients had baseline CD4-cell counts less than 200 cells per micro-liter of blood. Finally, we recommend that the shift to second-line ART might be too low and warrants close monitoring.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of alternative HIV retesting strategies in sub-saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Guidelines in sub-Saharan Africa on when HIV-seronegative persons should retest range from never to annually for lower-risk populations and from annually to every 3 months for high-risk populations.

METHODS

We designed a mathematical model to compare the cost-effectiveness of alternative HIV retesting frequencies. Cost of HIV counseling and testing, linkage to care, treatment costs, disease progression, and mortality, and HIV transmission are modeled for three hypothetical cohorts with posited annual HIV incidence of 0.8%, 1.3%, and 4.0%, respectively. The model compared costs, quality-adjusted life-years gained, and secondary infections averted from testing intervals ranging from 3 months to 30 years. Input parameters from sub-Saharan Africa were used and explored in sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Accounting for secondary infections averted, the most cost-effective testing frequency was every 7.5 years for 0.8% incidence, every 5 years for 1.3% incidence, and every 2 years for 4.0% incidence. Optimal testing strategies and their relative cost-effectiveness were most sensitive to assumptions about HIV counseling and testing and treatment costs, rates of CD4 decline, rates of HIV transmission, and whether tertiary infections averted were taken into account.

CONCLUSIONS

While higher risk populations merit more frequent HIV testing than low risk populations, regular retesting is beneficial even in low-risk populations. Our data demonstrate benefits of tailoring testing intervals to resource constraints and local HIV incidence rates.

Active voluntary counseling and testing with integrated CD4 count service can enhance early HIV testing and early CD4 count measurement: experiences from the Thai Red Cross Anonymous Clinic in Bangkok, Thailand

BACKGROUND

Low CD4 count at antiretroviral therapy initiation is common both in developed and developing countries. Active voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) center with integrated CD4 count service may facilitate early HIV testing and CD4 count measurement.

METHOD

We analyzed data from clients who had HIV testing at our VCT center between June 1, 2006 to May 31, 2009. HIV testing was provided through routine VCT, health check-up, nutrition, and sexual health services. CD4 count measurement was available in the clinic. The first CD4 count and duration between HIV diagnosis and the first CD4 count measurement were extracted from the database along with available demographic data.

RESULTS

Among 19,525 Thai clients who had HIV testing, 2580 clients (13.2%) were tested HIV positive for the first time. CD4 count measurement was performed in 73.3% of HIV-positive clients and 91.4% of these occurred within the first month of HIV diagnosis. Median first CD4 count was 287.0 (IQR = 114.0-434.3) cells per cubic millimeter, 62% had CD4 count <350 cells per cubic millimeter.

CONCLUSIONS

As HIV programs are moving toward earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy, efforts are needed to promote "early HIV testing" among general population with different levels of HIV risks and to enhance "early CD4 count measurement" after HIV diagnosis.

Four-year treatment outcomes of adult patients enrolled in Mozambique's rapidly expanding antiretroviral therapy program

Background

In Mozambique during 2004–2007 numbers of adult patients (≥15 years old) enrolled on antiretroviral therapy (ART) increased about 16-fold, from <5,000 to 79,500. All ART patients were eligible for co-trimoxazole. ART program outcomes, and determinants of outcomes, have not yet been reported.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In a retrospective cohort study, we investigated rates of mortality, attrition (death, loss to follow-up, or treatment cessation), immunologic treatment failure, and regimen-switch, as well as determinants of selected outcomes, among a nationally representative sample of 2,596 adults initiating ART during 2004–2007. At ART initiation, median age of patients was 34 and 62% were female. Malnutrition and advanced disease were common; 18% of patients weighed <45 kilograms, and 15% were WHO stage IV. Median baseline CD4⁺ T-cell count was 153/µL and was lower for males than females (139/µL vs. 159/µL, p<0.01). Stavudine, lamivudine, and nevirapine or efavirenz were prescribed to 88% of patients; only 31% were prescribed co-trimoxazole. Mortality and attrition rates were 3.4 deaths and 19.8 attritions per 100 patient-years overall, and 12.9 deaths and 57.2 attritions per 100 patient-years in the first 90 days. Predictors of attrition included male sex [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 1.5; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.3–1.8], weight <45 kg (AHR 2.1; 95% CI, 1.6–2.9, reference group >60 kg), WHO stage IV (AHR 1.7; 95% CI, 1.3–2.4, reference group WHO stage I/II), lack of co-trimoxazole prescription (AHR 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0–1.8), and later calendar year of ART initiation (AHR 1.5; 95% CI, 1.2–1.8). Rates of immunologic treatment failure and regimen-switch were 14.0 and 0.6 events per 100-patient years, respectively.

Conclusions

ART initiation at earlier disease stages and scale-up of co-trimoxazole among ART patients could improve outcomes. Research to determine reasons for low regimen-switch rates and increasing rates of attrition during program expansion is needed.

Prevalence of transmitted HIV drug resistance in Botswana: lessons learned from the HIVDR-Threshold Survey conducted among women presenting for routine antenatal care as part of the 2007 national sentinel survey

The emergence and spread of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) poses a major threat to the success of the rapidly expanding antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs in resource-limited countries. The World Health Organization recommends the use of the HIV Drug Resistance Threshold Survey (HIVDR-TS) as an affordable means to monitor the presence of TDR in these settings. We report our experiences and results of the 2007 HIVDR-TS in Botswana, a country with one of the longest-existing national public ART programs in Africa. The HIVDR-TS and HIV-1 incidence testing were performed in the two largest national sites as part of the 2007 antenatal Botswana Sentinel Survey. The HIVDR-TS showed no significant drug resistance mutations (TDR less than 5%) in one site. TDR prevalence, however, could not be ascertained at the second site due to low sample size. The agreement between HIVDR-TS eligibility criteria and laboratory-based methodologies (i.e., BED-CEIA and LS-EIA) in identifying recently HIV-1 infected adults was poor. Five years following the establishment of Botswana's public ART program, the prevalence of TDR remains low. The HIVDR-TS methodology has limitations for low-density populations as in Botswana, where the majority of antenatal sites are too small to recruit sufficient numbers of patients. In addition, the eligibility criteria (age <25 years and parity (first pregnancy)) of the HIVDR-TS performed poorly in identifying recent HIV-1 infections in Botswana. An alternative sampling strategy should be considered for the surveillance of HIVDR in Botswana and similar geographic settings.

High efficacy of lopinavir/r-based second-line antiretroviral treatment after 24 months of follow up at ESTHER/Calmette Hospital in Phnom Penh, Cambodia

Background

The number of patients on second-line highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) regimens is increasing in resource-limited settings. We describe the outcomes after 24 months for patients on LPV/r-based second-line regimens followed up by the ESTHER programme in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

Methods

Seventy patients who initiated second-line HAART regimens more than 24 months earlier were included, and immuno-virological data analyzed. HIV RNA viral load was determined by real-time RT-PCR. HIV-1 drug resistance was interpreted according to the ANRS algorithm.

Results

Of the 70 patients, two were lost to follow up, three died and 65 (92.8%) remained on second-line treatment after 24 months of follow up (median duration of treatment: 27.4 months). At switch to second-line, the median CD4 T cell count was 106 cells/mm³ and the median viral load was 4.7 Log₁₀. Second-line regimens prescribed were ddI/3TC/LPV_/r (65.7%), ddI/TDF/LPV_/r (10.0%), ddI/AZT/LPV_/r (8.6%) and TDF/3TC/LPV_/r (7.1%). The median CD4 T cell gain was +258 cells/mm³ at 24 months (n = 63). After 24 months of follow up, 92.3% (60/65) of the patients presented undetectable viral loads, giving an overall treatment success rate of 85.7% (CI: 75.6- 92.0) in intent-to-treat analysis.

Conclusions

These data suggest that a LPV_/r-based second-line regimen is associated with a high rate of virological suppression and immune reconstitution after 24 months of follow up in Cambodia.

Commentary: scaling up HIV treatment in resource-limited countries: the challenge of staff shortages

Scaling up antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited countries is a major challenge for health professionals and program managers due to the large number of patients and the severe shortage of health-care workers. The estimated number of patients in those settings requiring ART in 2009 was 14.6 million, of whom 64 per cent were not yet treated. The World Health Organization estimates that there is an overall deficit of more than 4 million physicians, nurses, midwives, and support workers for achieving the essential health interventions and the Millennium Development Goals (including the scaling up of HIV care). Strengthening the health systems through education, job-specific training, recruitment, and retention of health-care workers is imperative. In the meantime, task shifting is a key element of the response to the staff shortages, but further innovative models of care delivery are needed.

First-line antiretroviral therapy after single-dose nevirapine exposure in South Africa: a cost-effectiveness analysis of the OCTANE trial

BACKGROUND

The OCTANE trial reports superior outcomes of lopinavir/ritonavir vs. nevirapine-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) among women previously exposed to single-dose nevirapine to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission. However, lopinavir/ritonavir is 12 times costlier than nevirapine.

METHODS

We used a computer model, with OCTANE and local data, to simulate HIV-infected, single-dose nevirapine-exposed women in South Africa. Outcomes of three alternative ART sequences were projected: no ART (for comparison), first-line nevirapine, and first-line lopinavir/ritonavir. OCTANE data included mean age (31 years) and CD4 cell count (135/μl); median time since single-dose nevirapine (17 months); and 24-week viral suppression efficacy for first-line ART (nevirapine: 85%, lopinavir/ritonavir: 97%). Outcomes included life expectancy, per-person costs (2008 US$), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

RESULTS

With no ART, projected life expectancy was 1.6 years and per-person cost was $2980. First-line nevirapine increased life expectancy (15.2 years) and cost ($13 990; cost-effectiveness ratio: $810/year of life saved versus no ART). First-line lopinavir/ritonavir further increased life expectancy to 16.3 years and cost to $15 630 (cost-effectiveness ratio: $1520/year of life saved versus first-line nevirapine). First-line lopinavir/ritonavir cost-effectiveness was sensitive to prevalence of nevirapine-resistant virus at ART initiation, time from single-dose nevirapine exposure to ART initiation (6-12, 12-24, or >24 months), second-line ART efficacies, and outcomes after 24 weeks on ART.

CONCLUSIONS

First-line lopinavir/ritonavir-based ART is very cost-effective in single-dose nevirapine-exposed, South African women similar to OCTANE participants. Lopinavir/ritonavir should be initiated in women with known nevirapine resistance or single-dose nevirapine exposure less than 12 months prior, or in whom such information is unknown.

Correcting for mortality among patients lost to follow up on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a cohort analysis

Background

Loss to follow-up (LTF) challenges the reporting of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes, since it encompasses patients alive but lost to programme and deaths misclassified as LTF. We describe LTF before and after correction for mortality in a primary care ART programme with linkages to the national vital registration system.

Methods and Findings

We included 6411 patients enrolled on ART between March 2001 and June 2007. Patients LTF with available civil identification numbers were matched with the national vital registration system to ascertain vital status. Corrected mortality and true LTF were determined by weighting these patients to represent all patients LTF. We used Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox regression to describe LTF, mortality among those LTF, and true LTF. Of 627 patients LTF, 85 (28.8%) had died within 3 months after their last clinic visits. Respective estimates of LTF before and after correction for mortality were 6.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.2–7.6) and 4.3% (95% CI 3.5–5.3) at one year on ART, and 23.9% (95% CI 21.0–27.2) and 19.7% (95% CI 16.1–23.7) at 5 years. After correction for mortality, the hazard of LTF was reversed from decreasing to increasing with time on ART. Younger age, higher baseline CD4 count, pregnancy and increasing calendar year were associated with higher true LTF. Mortality of patients LTF at 1, 12 and 24 months after their last visits was respectively 23.1%, 30.9% and 43.8%; 78.0% of deaths occurred during the first 3 months after last visit and 45.0% in patients on ART for 0 to 3 months.

Conclusions

Mortality of patients LTF was high and occurred early after last clinic visit, especially in patients recently started on ART. Correction for these misclassified deaths revealed that the risk of true LTF increased over time. Research targeting groups at higher risk of LTF (youth, pregnant women and patients with higher CD4 counts) is needed.

Two-year impacts on employment and income among adults receiving antiretroviral therapy in Tamil Nadu, India: a cohort study

OBJECTIVES

to estimate the economic impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on employment and income of treated patients as well as a comparison group of pre-ART patients who receive care and support in Tamil Nadu, India.

METHODS

a cohort of 1238 HIV-infected patients was followed between 2005 and 2007. Socioeconomic data were collected at 6-month intervals. A total of 515 patients initiated ART during the study period, whereas a comparison group of 723 patients were pre-ART. The impact of ART on four employment outcomes was analyzed: participation in economic activities in the past week, number of hours worked in the past week, individual income earned in the past 30 days and 6 months. Regression models including patient fixed effects were estimated. Data from the comparison group of patients were used to adjust for time trends in employment outcomes.

RESULTS

At 6 months after initiation of ART, patients were 10 percentage points more likely to be economically active (P < 0.01) and worked 5.5 additional hours per week (P < 0.01). These increases were over and above those experienced by the comparison group. The estimated 24-month impacts represent a doubling of patients' employment levels at baseline. At 24 months after ART initiation, employment increases remained large and significant. Effects were almost twice as large for men compared with women. Income earned in the past 30 days and 6 months also rose significantly.

CONCLUSION

ART resulted in a rapid and sustained increase in employment and income for patients. The results demonstrate that ART can improve the economic outcomes of HIV-infected patients.

Cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral regimens in the World Health Organization's treatment guidelines: a South African analysis

OBJECTIVE

the World Health Organization (WHO) recently changed its first-line antiretroviral treatment guidelines in resource-limited settings. The cost-effectiveness of the new guidelines is unknown.

DESIGN

comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness analysis using a model of HIV disease progression and treatment.

METHODS

using a simulation of HIV disease and treatment in South Africa, we compared the life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy, lifetime costs, and cost-effectiveness of five initial regimens. Four are currently recommended by the WHO: tenofovir/lamivudine/efavirenz; tenofovir/lamivudine/nevirapine; zidovudine/lamivudine/efavirenz; and zidovudine/lamivudine/nevirapine. The fifth is the most common regimen in current use: stavudine/lamivudine/nevirapine. Virologic suppression and toxicities determine regimen effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

choice of first-line regimen is associated with a difference of nearly 12 months of quality-adjusted life expectancy, from 135.2 months (tenofovir/lamivudine/efavirenz) to 123.7 months (stavudine/lamivudine/nevirapine). Stavudine/lamivudine/nevirapine is more costly and less effective than zidovudine/lamivudine/nevirapine. Initiating treatment with a regimen containing tenofovir/lamivudine/nevirapine is associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $1045 per quality-adjusted life year compared with zidovudine/lamivudine/nevirapine. Using tenofovir/lamivudine/efavirenz was associated with the highest survival, fewest opportunistic diseases, lowest rate of regimen substitution, and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $5949 per quality-adjusted life year gained compared with tenofovir/lamivudine/nevirapine. Zidovudine/lamivudine/efavirenz was more costly and less effective than tenofovir/lamivudine/nevirapine. Results were sensitive to the rates of toxicities and the disutility associated with each toxicity.

CONCLUSION

among the options recommended by WHO, we estimate only three should be considered under normal circumstances. Choice among those depends on available resources and willingness to pay. Stavudine/lamivudine/nevirapine is associated with the poorest quality-adjusted survival and higher costs than zidovudine/lamivudine/nevirapine.

Symptom burden in HIV-infected adults at time of HIV diagnosis in rural Uganda

PURPOSE

This study aimed to measure symptom burden prior to antitetroviral therapy (ART) initiation in a population of adults with low CD4 presenting for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care and treatment in Uganda, and to explore the relationship between World Health Organization (WHO) stage, CD4 count, and symptomatology.

METHODS

HIV-infected, ART-naïve adults with CD4 less than 200 cells per microliter referred from voluntary testing and counseling services in rural Uganda for potential enrollment into a large double-blinded placebo-controlled trial were invited to completed the Memorial Symptom Assessment Scale-Short Form (MSAS-SF). This is a validated symptom assessment tool that records the presence and severity of 37 physical and 4 psychological symptoms.

RESULTS

Two hundred twelve subjects were enrolled. The mean total number of symptoms was 14.0 (standard deviation [SD] = 6). The 10 most common symptoms were pain (76%), weight loss (70%), itching (67%), feeling drowsy/tired (61%), and lack of energy (61%), numbness /tingling in hands or feet (57%), cough (53%) skin changes (52%), worry (51%), and lack of appetite (49%). The median number of symptoms was not associated with WHO stage CD4 count group.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates that the burden of HIV-related symptoms in individuals presenting for care in Uganda is significant and debilitating.

The experience of "medicine companions" to support adherence to antiretroviral therapy: quantitative and qualitative data from a trial population in Uganda

Good adherence is critical for antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa. We report on the characteristics of medicine companions (MCs) chosen by Ugandan patients enrolling on ART, and on how MCs were chosen, and what roles they played. Baseline data on MCs of 1453 participants in a randomized controlled trial comparing facility and home-based delivery of ART in Jinja, Uganda were analyzed. Textual data on experience with MCs were collected through in-depth interviews among a subsample of 40 trial participants equally divided by sex and trial arm. Significantly more women (71%) than men (29%) were recruited. The majority (75%) of women participants were either widowed (51%) or separated or divorced (24%), whereas most of the men (66%) were married. Women were most likely to choose a child as their MC while men were most likely to choose their spouse; 41% of women chose an MC under 21 compared with only 14% of men. Only 31% of married women chose their husband, compared with 66% of married men who chose their wife. Qualitative interviews suggested MCs proved useful for reminding and other supportive tasks in the first three months but were generally less essential by six months and beyond. Convenience, reliability, and trust were key considerations in choosing an MC. Children provided the only alternative for many unmarried women, but even some married women felt children made more reliable MCs than husbands. Participants who had disclosed their serostatus usually received drug-taking reminders from multiple household members. One participant in the qualitative sample with poor family relations delayed starting treatment due to unwillingness to identify an MC. MCs were generally welcome and useful in supporting early adherence. However, disclosure to an MC should not be a condition of obtaining treatment.

Claims on health care: a decision-making framework for equity, with application to treatment for HIV/AIDS in South Africa

Trying to determine how best to allocate resources in health care is especially difficult when resources are severely constrained, as is the case in all developing countries. This is particularly true in South Africa currently where the HIV epidemic adds significantly to a health service already overstretched by the demands made upon it.

This paper proposes a framework for determining how best to allocate scarce health care resources in such circumstances. This is based on communitarian claims. The basis of possible claims considered include: the need for health care, specified both as illness and capacity to benefit; whether or not claimants have personal responsibility in the conditions that have generated their health care need; relative deprivation or disadvantage; and the impact of services on the health of society and on the social fabric. Ways of determining these different claims in practice and the weights to be attached to them are also discussed.

The implications for the treatment of HIV/AIDS in South Africa are spelt out.

Social grants, welfare, and the incentive to trade-off health for income among individuals on HAART in South Africa

South Africa's government disability grants are considered important in providing income support to low-income AIDS patients. Indeed, anecdotal evidence suggests that some individuals may opt to compromise their health by foregoing Highly Active Antiretroviral Treatment (HAART) to remain eligible for the grant. In this study, we examined the disability grant's importance to individual and household welfare, and the impact of its loss using a unique longitudinal dataset of HAART patients in Khayelitsha, Cape Town. We found that grant loss was associated with sizeable declines in income and changes in household composition. However, we found no evidence of individuals choosing poor health over grant loss. Our analysis also suggested that though the grants officially target those too sick to work, some people were able to keep grants longer than expected, and others received grants while employed. This has helped cushion people on HAART, but other welfare measures need consideration.

Immunologic response to highly active antiretroviral therapy and mortality reduction in a cohort of human immunodeficiency virus-positive persons in Mozambique

Since February 2002, the Drug Resources Enhancement against AIDS and Malnutrition Program has provided highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) and immunologic and virologic monitoring free of charge. We conducted a cohort study of persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus in Mozambique. Only persons treated with HAART with available CD4 cell counts at baseline and ≥ 1 CD4 cell count after HAART were included. Survival analysis was applied to evaluate the prognostic value of CD4 cell counts measured at three months. Possible confounders were considered. A total of 753 persons who started HAART included; 59% were females. Median age was 34 years (range = 16-67 years), and the median CD4 cell count at baseline was 172 cells/mm3 (interquartile range = 87-261 cells/mm3, range = 0-1,322 cells/mm3). Overall, 105 persons (14%) died. Of these persons 54 (51%) developed AIDS before they died; 25 (3%) died during the first three months. After three months of therapy, the individual median CD4 cell count change from the baseline value was +101 cells/mm3 (interquartile range = +27 to +187 cells/mm3, range = -723 to +310 cells/mm3). A median CD4 increment of 100 cells/mm3 in three months was associated with a mortality reduction of 50% compared with an increase of < 50 cells (relative hazard of death adjusted for baseline CD4 cell count = 0.54, 95% confidence interval = 0.30-0.95). A good initial response to HAART was associated with a significant reduction of mortality. This finding supports the effectiveness of HAART in resource-poor settings.

Adjusting mortality for loss to follow-up: analysis of five ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Evaluation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes in sub-Saharan Africa is difficult because many patients are lost to follow-up. Outcomes in these patients are generally unknown but studies tracing patients have shown mortality to be high. We adjusted programme-level mortality in the first year of antiretroviral treatment (ART) for excess mortality in patients lost to follow-up.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Treatment-naïve patients starting combination ART in five programmes in Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya, Malawi and South Africa were eligible. Patients whose last visit was at least nine months before the closure of the database were considered lost to follow-up. We filled missing survival times in these patients by multiple imputation, using estimates of mortality from studies that traced patients lost to follow-up. Data were analyzed using Weibull models, adjusting for age, sex, ART regimen, CD4 cell count, clinical stage and treatment programme. A total of 15,915 HIV-infected patients (median CD4 cell count 110 cells/µL, median age 35 years, 68% female) were included; 1,001 (6.3%) were known to have died and 1,285 (14.3%) were lost to follow-up in the first year of ART. Crude estimates of mortality at one year ranged from 5.7% (95% CI 4.9-6.5%) to 10.9% (9.6-12.4%) across the five programmes. Estimated mortality hazard ratios comparing patients lost to follow-up with those remaining in care ranged from 6 to 23. Adjusted estimates based on these hazard ratios ranged from 10.2% (8.9-11.6%) to 16.9% (15.0-19.1%), with relative increases in mortality ranging from 27% to 73% across programmes.

CONCLUSIONS

Naïve survival analysis ignoring excess mortality in patients lost to follow-up may greatly underestimate overall mortality, and bias ART programme evaluations. Adjusted mortality estimates can be obtained based on excess mortality rates in patients lost to follow-up.

Determinants of survival in adult HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy in Oromiyaa, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

The antiretroviral treatment (ART) scale-up service has been a recent development in Ethiopia, but its impact on mortality has not been well investigated. The aim of this study was to assess the early survival outcome of the scale-up service by utilizing routine hospital data.

METHODS

All adult HIV/AIDS patients who started on antiretroviral treatment in Shashemene and Assela hospitals from January 1, 2006 to May 31, 2006 were included and followed up for 2 years. Data were extracted from standard patient medical registrations. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to estimate survival probability and the Cox proportional hazard model was applied to determine predictors of mortality. Two alterative assumptions (real case and worst case) were made in determining predictors of mortality.

RESULTS

The median age of patients was 33 years and 57% were female. Eighty-five percent had CD4 <200 cells/µL with a median CD4 count of 103 cells/µL. The median survival time was 104.4 weeks. A total of 28 (10.3%) deaths were observed during the 2-year period and 48 patients (18%) were lost to follow up. The majority of deaths occurred in the first 4 months of treatment. In multivariate analysis, 2-year survival was significantly associated with the clinical stage of the disease, baseline hemoglobin, and cotrimoxazole prophylaxis therapy (CPT) at or before ART initiation in both assumptions. The median CD4 count and body weight showed a marked improvement during the first 6 months of treatment, followed by stagnation thereafter.

CONCLUSION

The study has shown an overall low mortality but a high loss to follow-up rate of the cohort. Advanced clinical stage, anemia, low body weight, and lack of CPT initiation were independent predictors of mortality - but not gender. CPT initiation should be encouraged in routine HIV care services, and patient retention mechanisms have to be strengthened. Stagnation in immunological and weight recovery after the first 6 months should be further investigated. The utilization of routine data should be encouraged in order to facilitate appropriate decision making.

Long-term adherence to antiretroviral treatment and program drop-out in a high-risk urban setting in sub-Saharan Africa: a prospective cohort study

Background

Seventy percent of urban populations in sub-Saharan Africa live in slums. Sustaining HIV patients in these high-risk and highly mobile settings is a major future challenge. This study seeks to assess program retention and to find determinants for low adherence to antiretroviral treatment (ART) and drop-out from an established HIV/ART program in Kibera, Nairobi, one of Africa's largest informal urban settlements.

Methods and Findings

A prospective open cohort study of 800 patients was performed at the African Medical Research Foundation (AMREF) clinic in the Kibera slum. Adherence to ART and drop-out from the ART program were independent outcomes. Two different adherence measures were used: (1) “dose adherence” (the proportion of a prescribed dose taken over the past 4 days) and (2) “adherence index” (based on three adherence questions covering dosing, timing and special instructions). Drop-out from the program was calculated based on clinic appointment dates and number of prescribed doses, and a patient was defined as being lost to follow-up if over 90 days had expired since the last prescribed dose. More than one third of patients were non-adherent when all three aspects of adherence – dosing, timing and special instructions – were taken into account. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that not disclosing HIV status, having a low level of education, living below the poverty limit (US$ 2/day) and not having a treatment buddy were significant predictors for non-adherence. Additionally, one quarter of patients dropped out for more than 90 days after the last prescribed ART dose. Not having a treatment buddy was associated with increased risk for drop-out (hazard ratio 1.4, 95% CI = 1.0–1.9).

Conclusion

These findings point to the dilemma of trying to sustain a growing number of people on life-long ART in conditions where prevailing stigma, poverty and food shortages threatens the long-term success of HIV treatment.

Equity and efficiency in HIV-treatment in South Africa: the contribution of mathematical programming to priority setting

The HIV-epidemic is one of the greatest public health crises to face South Africa. A health care response to the treatment needs of HIV-positive people is a prime example of the desirability of an economic, rational approach to resource allocation in the face of scarcity. Despite this, almost no input based on economic analysis is currently used in national strategic planning. While cost-utility analysis is theoretically able to establish technical efficiency, in practice this is accomplished by comparing an intervention's ICER to a threshold level representing society's maximum willingness to pay to avoid death and improve health-related quality of life. Such an approach has been criticised for a number of reasons, including that it is inconsistent with a fixed budget for health care and that equity is not taken into account. It is also impractical if no national policy on the threshold exists. As an alternative, this paper proposes a mathematical programming approach that is capable of highlighting technical efficiency, equity, the equity/efficiency trade-off and the affordability of alternative HIV-treatment interventions. Government could use this information to plan an HIV-treatment strategy that best meets equity and efficiency objectives within budget constraints.

Virologic outcomes of first-line HAART and associated factors among Chinese patients with HIV in three sentinel antiretroviral treatment sites

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) among Chinese patients with HIV receiving first-line highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART).

METHODS

Based on the WHO HIVDR surveys, a prospective cohort study with 12-month follow-up was conducted to estimate the prevalence of HIV RNA<1000 copies/ml and HIVDR.

RESULTS

A total of 341 study subjects naïve to prior antiretroviral therapy (ART) were followed up for a median of 12.1 months. The overall mortality rate was 9.9 per 100 person-years. The median of CD4 counts increased from 182 cells/mm(3) at baseline to 268 cells/mm(3) at 12 months (P<0.0001). Of patients with plasma HIV-1 RNA concentrations ≥1000 copies/ml at 12 months, the proportions of resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase drugs, nucleoside/nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors, and protease inhibitor drugs were 34.2%, 23.7% and 0%, respectively. The overall proportion of HIV RNA<1000 copies/ml was 85.7% at 12 months. Occupation of farmer (AOR=0.3, 95% CI: 0.08, 0.94; P=0.0393) and HAART counselling and instruction through telephone (AOR=2.8, 95% CI: 1.4, 5.6; P=0.0047) were significantly associated with HIV RNA<1000 copies/ml.

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrated that the community-based ART had significant effects on viral suppression and immune recovery. HIVDR should be monitored in the long term to guide informed decisions on preventing HIVDR and choices of first- and second-line regimens.

Initiating patients on antiretroviral therapy at CD4 cell counts above 200 cells/microl is associated with improved treatment outcomes in South Africa

OBJECTIVES

To compare treatment outcomes by starting CD4 cell counts using data from the Comprehensive International Program of Research on AIDS-South Africa trial.

DESIGN

An observational cohort study.

METHODS

Patients presenting to primary care clinics with CD4 cell counts below 350 cells/microl were randomized to either doctor or nurse-managed HIV care and followed for at least 2 years after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. Clinical and laboratory outcomes were compared by baseline CD4 cell counts.

RESULTS

Eight hundred and twelve patients were followed for a median of 27.5 months and 36% initiated ART with a CD4 cell count above 200 cells/microl. Although 10% of patients failed virologically, the risk was nearly double among those with a CD4 cell count of 200 cells/microl or less vs. above 200 cells/microl (12.2 vs. 6.8%). Twenty-one deaths occurred, with a five-fold increased risk for the low CD4 cell count group (3.7 vs. 0.7%). After adjustment, those with a CD4 cell count of 200 cells/microl had twice the risk of death/virologic failure [hazard ratio 1.9; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.1-3.3] and twice the risk of incident tuberculosis (hazard ratio 1.90; 95% CI, 0.89-4.04) as those above 200 cells/microl. Those with either a CD4 cell count of 200 cells/microl or less (hazard ratio 2.1; 95% CI, 1.2-3.8) or a WHO IV condition (hazard ratio 2.9; 95% CI, 0.93-8.8) alone had a two-to-three-fold increased risk of death/virologic failure vs. those with neither, but those with both conditions had a four-fold increased risk (hazard ratio 3.9; 95% CI, 1.9-8.1). We observed some decreased loss to follow-up among those initiating ART at less than 200 cells/microl (hazard ratio 0.79; 95% CI, 0.50-1.25).

CONCLUSION

Patients initiating ART with higher CD4 cell counts had reduced mortality, tuberculosis and less virologic failure than those initiated at lower CD4 cell counts. Our data support increasing CD4 cell count eligibility criteria for ART initiation.

Associations with virologic treatment failure in adults on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa

OBJECTIVES

Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has been available in government facilities in the Western Cape Province of South Africa since 2001. We aimed to investigate factors associated with virologic treatment failure in this setting.

DESIGN

Case-control study, matched on facility and on starting date and duration of HAART.

METHODS

Cases and controls were identified from clinic registers from May 2001 to June 2006. Cases were patients who switched to second-line therapy after confirmed virologic failure (2 consecutive viral loads above 1000 copies/mL). Controls were on first-line treatment with viral load <400 copies per milliliter at the time of case incidence.

RESULTS

One hundred thirty cases and 238 controls were selected from 8 clinics (median 16.6 months on HAART, interquartile range: 12.2-24.6). Treatment interruptions [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 8.6, 95% confidence interval: 3.6 to 20.8], prior nevirapine-based prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) treatment (AOR: 9.6, 95% confidence interval: 2.9 to 32.2), a baseline CD4 count less than 50 cells per microliter or from 50-150 cells per microliter (AOR: 6.6, 95% confidence interval: 2.3 to 18.8 and AOR: 5.8, 95% confidence interval: 2.1 to 16.3 compared with a baseline CD4 count of more than 150 cells/microL), and the use of nevirapine in the initial regimen (AOR: 2.5, 95% confidence interval: 1.4 to 4.7) were all independently associated with virologic treatment failure.

CONCLUSIONS

In this setting, nevirapine in the initial HAART regimen or for PMTCT treatment is associated with virologic treatment failure, together with low CD4 count at ART initiation. Earlier initiation of HAART and access to improved triple therapy and PMTCT regimens are priorities for HIV programs in Southern Africa.

Nurse led, primary care based antiretroviral treatment versus hospital care: a controlled prospective study in Swaziland

Background

Antiretroviral treatment services delivered in hospital settings in Africa increasingly lack capacity to meet demand and are difficult to access by patients. We evaluate the effectiveness of nurse led primary care based antiretroviral treatment by comparison with usual hospital care in a typical rural sub Saharan African setting.

Methods

We undertook a prospective, controlled evaluation of planned service change in Lubombo, Swaziland. Clinically stable adults with a CD4 count > 100 and on antiretroviral treatment for at least four weeks at the district hospital were assigned to either nurse led primary care based antiretroviral treatment care or usual hospital care. Assignment depended on the location of the nearest primary care clinic. The main outcome measures were clinic attendance and patient experience.

Results

Those receiving primary care based treatment were less likely to miss an appointment compared with those continuing to receive hospital care (RR 0·37, p < 0·0001). Average travel cost was half that of those receiving hospital care (p = 0·001). Those receiving primary care based, nurse led care were more likely to be satisfied in the ability of staff to manage their condition (RR 1·23, p = 0·003). There was no significant difference in loss to follow-up or other health related outcomes in modified intention to treat analysis. Multilevel, multivariable regression identified little inter-cluster variation.

Conclusions

Clinic attendance and patient experience are better with nurse led primary care based antiretroviral treatment care than with hospital care; health related outcomes appear equally good. This evidence supports efforts of the WHO to scale-up universal access to antiretroviral treatment in sub Saharan Africa.

Low haemoglobin predicts early mortality among adults starting antiretroviral therapy in an HIV care programme in South Africa: a cohort study

Background

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has dramatically reduced morbidity and mortality among people with HIV infection; however, mortality after the start of ART is high in resource-limited settings. We investigated risk factors for mortality among adults starting ART in a multi-clinic community programme in South Africa.

Methods

Cohort of adults starting ART at 27 clinics between February 2005 and June 2006, followed to 31^st March 2007. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates were used to describe overall mortality. Shared frailty Cox regression was used to identify baseline risk factors for early mortality.

Results

Among 1350 participants (median age 35.5 years, 60% female, median CD4 count 83/μL [interquartile range (27 - 147)], median follow-up 13.4 months), there were 185 deaths, overall mortality rate 13/100 pyrs; for 0-3, 3-9 and >9 months from ART start mortality rates were 24, 13 and 6/100 pyrs respectively. 43% of the deaths were in the first 3 months of treatment. Risk factors for mortality in univariable analysis were baseline CD4 count, viral load, haemoglobin and body mass index, in multivariable analysis adjusting for age and gender, only CD4 count and haemoglobin remained independently associated with proportional hazards not being satisfied for haemoglobin. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for participants with haemoglobin <8, 8.1-9.9, >11.9(f)/12.9 (m) g/mL were 4.99, 3.05 and 0.12 respectively comparing to 10-11.9 (f)/12.9 (m)g/mL in the first 3 months of ART. aHRs for CD4 counts were 0.40, 0.38 and 0.34 for 50-99, 100-200 and >200/μL comparing to <50/μL.

Conclusions

The high mortality rate in the first 3 months underlines the need for earlier HIV diagnosis so that ART can be initiated earlier. Low haemoglobin and low CD4 count are both strong predictors of mortality, and could be used to identify individuals at high risk who might benefit from intensive case management.

Differences in antiretroviral scale up in three South African provinces: the role of implementation management

BACKGROUND

South Africa's antiretroviral programme is governed by defined national plans, establishing treatment targets and providing funding through ring-fenced conditional grants. However, in terms of the country's quasi-federal constitution, provincial governments bear the main responsibility for provision of health care, and have a certain amount of autonomy and therefore choice in the way their HIV/AIDS programmes are implemented.

METHODS

The paper is a comparative case study of the early management of ART scale up in three South African provincial governments--Western Cape, Gauteng and Free State--focusing on both operational and strategic dimensions. Drawing on surveys of models of ART care and analyses of the policy process conducted in the three provinces between 2005 and 2007, as well as a considerable body of grey and indexed literature on ART scale up in South Africa, it draws links between implementation processes and variations in provincial ART coverage (low, medium and high) achieved in the three provinces.

RESULTS

While they adopted similar chronic disease care approaches, the provinces differed with respect to political and managerial leadership of the programme, programme design, the balance between central standardisation and local flexibility, the effectiveness of monitoring and evaluation systems, and the nature and extent of external support and programme partnerships.

CONCLUSIONS

This case study points to the importance of sub-national programme processes and the influence of factors other than financing or human resource capacity, in understanding intervention scale up.

Who is accessing public-sector anti-retroviral treatment in the Free State, South Africa? An exploratory study of the first three years of programme implementation

Background

Although South Africa has the largest public-sector anti-retroviral treatment (ART) programme in the world, anti-retroviral coverage in adults was only 40.2% in 2008. However, longitudinal studies of who is accessing the South African public-sector ART programme are scarce. This study therefore had one main research question: who is accessing public-sector ART in the Free State Province, South Africa? The study aimed to extend the current literature by investigating, in a quantitative manner and using a longitudinal study design, the participants enrolled in the public-sector ART programme in the period 2004-2006 in the Free State Province of South Africa.

Methods

Differences in the demographic (age, sex, population group and marital status) socio-economic (education, income, neo-material indicators), geographic (travel costs, relocation for ART), and medical characteristics (CD4, viral load, time since first diagnosis, treatment status) among 912 patients enrolled in the Free State public-sector ART programme between 2004 and 2006 were assessed with one-way analysis of variance, Bonferroni post-hoc analysis, and cross tabulations with the chi square test.

Results

The patients accessing treatment tended to be female (71.1%) and unemployed (83.4%). However, although relatively poor, those most likely to access ART services were not the most impoverished patients. The proportion of female patients increased (P < 0.05) and their socio-economic situation improved between 2004 and 2006 (P < 0.05). The increasing mean transport cost (P < 0.05) to visit the facility is worrying, because this cost is an important barrier to ART uptake and adherence. Encouragingly, the study results revealed that the interval between the first HIV-positive diagnosis and ART initiation decreased steadily over time (P < 0.05). This was also reflected in the increasing baseline CD4 cell count at ART initiation (P < 0.05).

Conclusions

Our analysis showed significant changes in the demographic, socio-economic, geographic, and medical characteristics of the patients during the first three years of the programme. Knowledge of the characteristics of these patients can assist policy makers in developing measures to retain them in care. The information reported here can also be usefully applied to target patient groups that are currently not reached in the implementation of the ART programme.

Methods and baseline results of a repeated cross-sectional survey to assess the public health impact of antiretroviral therapy in Lusaka, Zambia

Although the individual-level impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is well documented, there are few available data describing the public health impact of services for persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus in resource-constrained settings. We describe the methods and baseline results of a household survey that assessed the population-level impact of the national program for HIV care in Zambia and treatment in the city of Lusaka. The survey was timed with the staggered expansion of services and repeated cross-sectional surveys planned for pre-implementation and post-implementation comparisons made by community. In the initial survey round, which was performed during the early phases of the program (November-December 2004), 18,110 persons were enumerated from 3,600 households surveyed. Respondents were asked questions designed to evaluate community-level mortality and respondent knowledge and attitudes towards HIV. These findings will serve as a reliable reference in the future analysis of the population-level impact of this HIV treatment and care program in Zambia.

Reduced referral and case fatality rates for severe symptomatic hyperlactataemia in a South African public sector antiretroviral programme: a retrospective observational study

Background

Interventions to promote prevention and earlier diagnosis of severe symptomatic hyperlactataemia (SHL) were implemented in the Western Cape provincial antiretroviral programme (South Africa) from 2004. Interventions included clinician education, point-of-care lactate meters, switch from stavudine to zidovudine in high risk patients and stavudine dose reduction. This study assessed trends in referral rate, severity at presentation and case fatality rate for severe SHL.

Methods

Retrospective study of severe SHL cases diagnosed at a referral facility from 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2008. Severe SHL was defined as patients with compatible symptoms and serum lactate ≥ 5 mmol/l attributable to antiretroviral therapy (ART). Cumulative ART exposure at referring ART clinics was used to calculate referral rates.

Results

There were 254 severe SHL cases. The referral rate (per thousand patient years [py] ART exposure) peaked in 2005 (20.4/1000py), but fell to 1.3/1000py by 2008 (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.07, 95%CI 0.04-0.11). In 2003, 66.7% of cases presented with a standard bicarbonate (SHCO₃) level <15 mmol/l, but this fell to 12.5% by 2008 (p for trend < 0.001). Case fatality rate fell from a peak of 33.3% in 2004 to 0% in 2008 (p for trend = 0.002).

Conclusions

These trends suggest the interventions were associated with reduced referral, less severe metabolic acidosis at presentation and improved survival.

Scale-up of a decentralized HIV treatment programme in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: does rapid expansion affect patient outcomes?

OBJECTIVE

To describe the scale-up of a decentralized HIV treatment programme delivered through the primary health care system in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, and to assess trends in baseline characteristics and outcomes in the study population.

METHODS

The programme started delivery of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in October 2004. Information on all patients initiated on ART was captured in the programme database and follow-up status was updated monthly. All adult patients (> or = 16 years) who initiated ART between October 2004 and September 2008 were included and stratified into 6-month groups. Clinical and sociodemographic characteristics were compared between the groups. Retention in care, mortality, loss to follow-up and virological outcomes were assessed at 12 months post-ART initiation.

FINDINGS

A total of 5719 adults initiated on ART were included (67.9% female). Median baseline CD4+ lymphocyte count was 116 cells/microl (interquartile range, IQR: 53-173). There was an increase in the proportion of women who initiated ART while pregnant but no change in other baseline characteristics over time. Overall retention in care at 12 months was 84.0% (95% confidence interval, CI: 82.6-85.3); 10.9% died (95% CI: 9.8-12.0); 3.7% were lost to follow-up (95% CI: 3.0-4.4). Mortality was highest in the first 3 months after ART initiation: 30.1 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI: 26.3-34.5). At 12 months 23.0% had a detectable viral load (> 25 copies/ml) (95% CI: 19.5-25.5).

CONCLUSION

Outcomes were not affected by rapid expansion of this decentralized HIV treatment programme. The relatively high rates of detectable viral load highlight the need for further efforts to improve the quality of services.

Early adherence to antiretroviral medication as a predictor of long-term HIV virological suppression: five-year follow up of an observational cohort

OBJECTIVE

Previous studies have demonstrated a cross-sectional relationship between antiretroviral adherence and HIV virological suppression. We assessed the predictive value of baseline adherence in determining long-term virological failure.

DESIGN

We assessed baseline adherence via an adherence questionnaire between administered to all consenting patients attending antiretroviral clinics in Khayelitsha township, South Africa, between May 2002 and March 2004. Virological status was ascertained after five years of follow up and multivariate analysis used to model associations of baseline variables and medication adherence with time to viral suppression or failure.

RESULTS

Our adherence cohort comprised 207 patients, among whom 72% were female. Median age was 30 years and median CD4 count at initiation was 55 cells/mm(3). We found no statistically significant differences between baseline characteristics and early adherence groups. Multivariate analysis adjusting for baseline CD4 and age found that patients with suboptimal baseline adherence had a hazard ratio of 2.82 (95% CI 1.19-6.66, p = 0.018) for progression to virological failure compared to those whose baseline adherence was considered optimal.

CONCLUSIONS

Our longitudinal study provides further confirmation of adherence as a primary determinant of subsequent confirmed virological failure, and serves as a reminder of the importance of initial early investments in adherence counseling and support as an effective way to maximize long-term treatment success.

Mortality reduction associated with HIV/AIDS care and antiretroviral treatment in rural Malawi: evidence from registers, coffin sales and funerals

Background

To report on the trend in all-cause mortality in a rural district of Malawi that has successfully scaled-up HIV/AIDS care including antiretroviral treatment (ART) to its population, through corroborative evidence from a) registered deaths at traditional authorities (TAs), b) coffin sales and c) church funerals.

Methods and Findings

Retrospective study in 5 of 12 TAs (covering approximately 50% of the population) during the period 2000–2007. A total of 210 villages, 24 coffin workshops and 23 churches were included. There were a total of 18,473 registered deaths at TAs, 15781 coffins sold, and 2762 church funerals. Between 2000 and 2007, there was a highly significant linear downward trend in death rates, sale of coffins and church funerals (X² for linear trend: 338.4 P<0.0001, 989 P<0.0001 and 197, P<0.0001 respectively). Using data from TAs as the most reliable source of data on deaths, overall death rate reduction was 37% (95% CI:33–40) for the period. The mean annual incremental death rate reduction was 0.52/1000/year. Death rates decreased over time as the percentage of people living with HIV/AIDS enrolled into care and ART increased. Extrapolating these data to the entire district population, an estimated 10,156 (95% CI: 9786–10259) deaths would have been averted during the 8-year period.

Conclusions

Registered deaths at traditional authorities, the sale of coffins and church funerals showed a significant downward trend over a 8-year period which we believe was associated with the scaling up HIV/AIDS care and ART.

Volunteer home-based HIV/AIDS care and food crisis in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: sustainability in the face of chronic food insecurity

Low-income volunteers constitute a major part of AIDS care workforces in sub-Saharan Africa, yet little research has been conducted to determine how poverty and insecurity among volunteers impact their wellbeing and the sustainability of the AIDS treatment programmes they support. This paper presents longitudinal ethnographic and epidemiological research documenting how the 2008 food crisis in Addis Ababa affected AIDS care volunteers' care relationships and motivations. Ethnographic results highlight the distress and demotivation that rising food costs created for caregivers by contributing to their own and their care recipients' experiences of food insecurity and HIV-related stigmatization. Epidemiological results underscore a high prevalence of food insecurity (approximately 80%) even prior to the peak of food prices. Rising food prices over the 3 years prior to 2008, underemployment and household per capita incomes averaging less than US$1/day, likely contributed to the very high prevalence of food insecurity reported by caregivers in our sample. We also show that new volunteers recruited in early 2008 by one of the non-governmental organizations (NGOs) involved in this study were more likely to be dependants within their households, and that these participants reported lower rates of food insecurity and higher household income. While this shift in volunteer recruitment may help sustain volunteer care programmes in the face of widespread poverty and underemployment, food insecurity was still highly prevalent (58-71%) among this sub-group. Given the inability of the local NGOs that organize volunteers to address the challenge of food insecurity for programme sustainability, our results raise important policy questions regarding compensation for volunteers' valuable labour and poverty reduction through public health sector job creation.

Using vital registration data to update mortality among patients lost to follow-up from ART programmes: evidence from the Themba Lethu Clinic, South Africa

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the rates of mortality in patients lost to follow-up (LTFU) from a large urban public sector HIV clinic in South Africa.

METHODS

We compared vital status using the clinic's database to vital status verified against the Vital Registration system at the South African Department of Home Affairs. We compared rates of mortality before and after updating mortality data. Predictors of mortality were estimated using Kaplan-Meier curves and proportional hazard regression.

RESULTS

Of the 7097 total patients who initiated highly active antiretroviral therapy at Themba Lethu Clinic by October 1st, 2008 and had an ID number, 6205 were included. 2453 patients (21%) were LTFU, of whom 1037 (42.3%) could be included in the analysis. After matching to the vital registration system, mortality more than doubled from 4.2% (258/6205) to 10.9% (676/6205). Overall 37% of those LTFU died by life-table analysis the probability of survival amongst those LTFU was 69% (95% CI: 66-72%), 64% (95% CI: 61-67%) and 59% (95% CI: 55-62%) by years 1, 2 and 3 since being lost, respectively. Those at highest risk of death after being lost were patients with a history of tuberculosis, CD4 count < 100 cells/microl, BMI < 17.5, haemoglobin < 10 and on <6 months of treatment.

CONCLUSION

Mortality was substantially underestimated among patients lost from a South African HIV treatment programme despite limited active tracing. Linking to vital registration systems can provide more accurate assessments of programme effectiveness and target lost patients most at risk for mortality.