An adaptation of the Framingham coronary heart disease risk function to European Mediterranean areas

Performance of the Framingham and SCORE cardiovascular risk prediction functions in a non-diabetic population of a Spanish health care centre: a validation study

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the 10-year performance of the original Framingham coronary risk function and of the SCORE cardiovascular death risk function in a non-diabetic population of 40-65 years of age served by a Spanish healthcare centre. Also, to estimate the percentage of patients who are candidates for antihypertensive and lipid-lowering therapy.

DESIGN

Longitudinal, observational study of a retrospective cohort followed up for 10 years.

SETTING

Primary care health centre.

PATIENTS

A total of 608 non-diabetic patients of 40-65 years of age (mean 52.8 years, 56.7% women), without evidence of cardiovascular disease were studied.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Coronary risk at 10 years from the time of their recruitment, using the tables based on the original Framingham function, and of their 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease using the SCORE tables.

RESULTS

The actual incidence rates of coronary and fatal cardiovascular events were 7.9% and 1.5%, respectively. The original Framingham equation over-predicted risk by 64%, while SCORE function over-predicted risk by 40%, but the SCORE model performed better than the Framingham one for discrimination and calibration statistics. The original Framingham function classified 18.3% of the population as high risk and SCORE 9.2%. The proportions of patients who would be candidates for lipid-lowering therapy were 31.0% and 23.8% according to the original Framingham and SCORE functions, respectively, and 36.8% and 31.2% for antihypertensive therapy.

CONCLUSION

The SCORE function showed better values than the original Framingham function for each of the discrimination and calibration statistics. The original Framingham function selected a greater percentage of candidates for antihypertensive and lipid-lowering therapy.

Validation of an atrial fibrillation risk algorithm in whites and African Americans

BACKGROUND

We sought to validate a recently published risk algorithm for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in independent cohorts and other racial groups.

METHODS

We evaluated the performance of a Framingham Heart Study (FHS)-derived risk algorithm modified for 5-year incidence of AF in the FHS (n = 4764 participants) and 2 geographically and racially diverse cohorts in the age range 45 to 95 years: AGES (the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study) (n = 4238) and CHS (the Cardiovascular Health Study) (n = 5410, of whom 874 [16.2%] were African Americans). The risk algorithm included age, sex, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, electrocardiographic PR interval, hypertension treatment, and heart failure.

RESULTS

We found 1359 incident AF events in 100 074 person-years of follow-up. Unadjusted 5-year event rates differed by cohort (AGES, 12.8 cases/1000 person-years; CHS whites, 22.7 cases/1000 person-years; and FHS, 4.5 cases/1000 person-years) and by race (CHS African Americans, 18.4 cases/1000 person-years). The strongest risk factors in all samples were age and heart failure. The relative risks for incident AF associated with risk factors were comparable across cohorts and race groups. After recalibration for baseline incidence and risk factor distribution, the Framingham algorithm, reported in C statistic, performed reasonably well in all samples: AGES, 0.67 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64-0.71); CHS whites, 0.68 (95% CI, 0.66-0.70); and CHS African Americans, 0.66 (95% CI, 0.61-0.71). Risk factors combined in the algorithm explained between 47.0% (AGES) and 63.6% (FHS) of the population-attributable risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk of incident AF in community-dwelling whites and African Americans can be assessed reliably by routinely available and potentially modifiable clinical variables. Seven risk factors accounted for up to 64% of risk.

Cardiovascular risk estimated after 13 years of follow-up in a low-incidence Mediterranean region with high-prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors

BACKGROUND

Murcia (south-east Spain) shows increased cardiovascular (CV) morbimortality as compared to other Spanish regions. Our objective was to assess the CV risk associated with major risk factors (RF) among adult population of Murcia.

METHODS

A cohort of 2314 subjects (18-70 years) with full biochemical and questionnaire data was followed-up for 13 years. Incident cases of ischemic heart disease and stroke were identified by record linkage, individual questionnaires and revision of medical records. Relative risks were obtained by multivariate Cox regression stratified by age and sex, and ischemic risk attributable to CVRF was calculated.

RESULTS

After more than 26276 person-years of follow-up, 57 incident ischemic events (77% men) and 37 stroke cases (62% men) were identified. Independent risk factors of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and all CV events combined, with RR ranging from 1.6 to 2.6, were total serum cholesterol ≥ 240 mg/dl (HR = 2.6, 95%CI:1.3-5.1), blood pressure levels ≥ 140/90 mmHg (HR = 2.6, 95%CI:1.4-4.8), ever tobacco smoking (HR = 2.2; 95%CI:1.1-4.5), and diabetes (HR = 2.0; 95%CI: 1.0-3.8). No increased CV risk was detected for known participants under treatment who showed cholesterol and blood pressure values below the clinical risk threshold. Smoking was significantly associated with stroke. For all events combined, the major risk factors were hypercholesterolemia, hypertension and ever use of tobacco. Despite its high prevalence, obesity was not associated to CV risk. Most of the IHD cases were attributable to smoking (44%), hypertension (38%) and hypercholesterolemia (26%).

CONCLUSIONS

In the Region of Murcia, smoking accounted for the largest proportion of cardiovascular risk, whereas hypertension displaced hypercholesterolemia as the second leading cause of CV disease. Our study deepens in our understanding of the cardiovascular epidemiology in Spanish areas of Mediterranean Europe with relatively high cardiovascular morbimortality, that are poorly represented by the available risk equations.

Fatty acids in serum phospholipids and carotid intima-media thickness in Spanish subjects with primary dyslipidemia

BACKGROUND

Low rates of incident ischemic heart disease (IHD) and cardiac death occur in Spain despite a high prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. High consumption of unsaturated fatty acid-rich foods, such as olive oil, nuts, and seafood, might underlie this paradox.

OBJECTIVE

We investigated whether serum phosphatidylcholine enrichment in oleic, linoleic, alpha-linolenic, and n-3 (omega-3) long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (as biomarkers of olive oil, seed oil, walnut, and fish intake, respectively) relate to carotid atherosclerosis in Spanish subjects at risk of IHD.

DESIGN

In a cross-sectional study, we measured fatty acid concentrations in serum phosphatidylcholine and measured carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) by using ultrasound in 451 asymptomatic subjects (261 men, 190 women; mean age: 45 y) with primary dyslipidemia. Main and secondary outcomes were mean and maximum IMT in the common carotid artery (CCA) and other carotid segments, respectively.

RESULTS

Phosphatidylcholine fatty acid composition was similar to that reported for other Spanish populations. Multiple regression analyses showed that proportions of oleic and docosahexaenoic acids were inversely related to mean CCA IMT (P < 0.02, all) after adjustment for several confounders. In similar models, alpha-linolenic acid related inversely to mean and maximum internal carotid artery IMT (P < 0.05 for all). Linoleic and eicosapentaenoic acids were unrelated to IMT.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher phospholipid proportions of oleic, alpha-linolenic, and docosahexaenoic acids showed inverse associations with IMT at specific carotid segments in subjects with primary dyslipidemia. High intakes of healthy fats might explain, in part, the Spanish paradox of low IHD rates in the face of a high burden of cardiovascular risk factors.

Cardiovascular risk assessment--from individual risk prediction to estimation of global risk and change in risk in the population

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease is the most common cause of death and risk prediction formulae such as the Framingham Risk Score have been developed to easily identify patients at high risk that may require therapeutic interventions.

DISCUSSION

Using cardiovascular risk formulae at a population level to estimate and compare average cardiovascular risk among groups has been recently proposed as a way to facilitate surveillance of net cardiovascular risk and target public health interventions. Risk prediction formulas may help to compare interventions that cause effects of different magnitudes and directions in several cardiovascular risk factors, because these formulas assess the net change in risk using easily obtainable clinical variables. Because of conflicting data estimates of the incidence and prevalence of cardiovascular disease, risk prediction formulae may be a useful tool to estimate such risk at a population level.

SUMMARY

Although risk prediction formulae were intended on guiding clinicians to individualized therapy, they also can be used to ascertain trends at a population-level, particularly in situations where changes in different cardiovascular risk factors over time have different magnitudes and directions. The efficacy of interventions that are proposed to reduce cardiovascular risk impacting more than one risk factor can be well assessed by these means.

Value and limitations of existing scores for the assessment of cardiovascular risk: a review for clinicians

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the biggest causes of death worldwide. In most people, CVD is the product of a number of causal risk factors. Several seemingly modest risk factors may, in combination, result in a much higher risk than an impressively raised single factor. For this reason, risk estimation systems have been developed to assist clinicians to assess the effects of risk factor combinations in planning management strategies. In this article, the performances of the major risk estimation systems are reviewed. Most perform usably well in populations that are similar to the one used to derive the system, and in other populations if calibrated to allow for different CVD mortality rates and different risk factor distributions. The effect of adding "new" risk factors to age, sex, smoking, lipid status, and blood pressure is usually small, but may help to appropriately reclassify some of those patients who are close to a treatment threshold to a more correct "treat/do not treat" category. Risk estimation in the young and old needs more research. Quantification of the hoped-for benefits of the multiple risk estimation approach in terms of improved outcomes is still needed. But, it is likely that the widespread use of such an approach will help to address the issues of both undertreatment and overtreatment.

Adaptation of the Framingham-Wilson coronary risk equation for the population of Navarra (RICORNA)

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

The Framingham equations overestimate the risk of coronary disease in populations with a low disease incidence. It is more appropriate to take the local population's characteristics into account when estimating coronary risk. Accordingly, the Framingham-Wilson equation has been adapted for the population of Navarra, Spain. This article presents 10-year overall coronary risk charts.

METHODS

The Framingham-Wilson equation was adapted using data on the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and the coronary event rate in the population of Navarra. The version of the Framingham-Wilson equation used included high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C). The probability of an event at 10 years for different combinations of risk factors, with an HDL-C concentration of 35-59 mg/dL, are illustrated.

RESULTS

Using the Framingham equation adapted for Navarra (i.e., the RICORNA or Riesgo Coronario Navarra), the proportion with an estimated probability of a coronary event in the next 10 years greater than 9% is approximately half that in the original Framingham population, and the proportion with a high or very high probability (i.e., 20%) is one-third. An HDL-C level <35 mg/dL increases the risk by 50% and a level > or =60 mg/dL reduces it by 50%, approximately. The average HDL-C level observed in the population was 63.9 mg/dL overall, and 70.1 mg/dL in women.

CONCLUSIONS

The RICORNA equation can provide a more precise estimate of overall coronary risk and could be useful in primary disease prevention in Navarra. The high HDL-C concentration observed in Navarra might contribute to the associated low coronary morbidity and mortality.

[Evaluation of cardiovascular risk in the cross-sectional phase of the Mediterranean Study]

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

The Mediterranean study quantifies high cardiovascular risk (HCR), consistency between REGICOR (R) and low risk SCORE (LS) scales, altered blood pressure (ABP) values in hypercholesterolemia (HC) without any history of hypertension (HT), high total cholesterol (HTC) values with HT with no background of HC and cardiac and renal damage in hypertensive patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A national, cross-sectional and multicenter study was performed with the participation of 751 physicians. The physicians individually evaluated 7,973 patients with HT and 5,319 with HC. HCR was defined as over 10% with R and 5% with LS. Intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) and Pearson coefficient (r) were calculated. The percentages of ABP and HTC were quantified. Creatinine (cr) value, glomerular filtration rate using Cockroft-Gault (CG), and prevalence of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) were analyzed.

RESULTS

Regarding hypertensive patients: 17.3% HCR with R and 26.1% with LS. ICC = 0.222 (p < 0.0001), r = 0.61 (p < 0.0001), 64.7% HTC. There was no evaluation of LVH in 31.2% and a prevalence of 5.1%, prevalence of lesion and kidney failure (KF) of 4.7% and 1.6% respectively based on CR and 15.9% KF by CG. In HC patients, there was 21.1% of HCR with R and 21.5% with LS; ICC = 0.190 (p < 0.0001), r = 0.64 (p < 0.0001) and 33.7% ABP.

CONCLUSIONS

The SCORE scale identifies more patients with HCR than the REGICOR one in HT patients and a similar amount in HC patients. Consistency between both scales is poor. A significant ABP/HTC was found. In HT patients, the patients who were not evaluated for LVH and the percentage of KF are important.

Expansion of the prognostic assessment of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: the updated BODE index and the ADO index

BACKGROUND

The BODE index (including body-mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea, and exercise capacity) was an important contribution to the prognostic assessment of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, no study has assessed whether the risk of mortality predicted by the BODE index matches the observed mortality in different populations. We assessed the calibration of the BODE index, updated it to improve its calibration, and developed and validated a simplified index for use in primary-care settings.

METHODS

We included 232 patients from the Swiss Barmelweid cohort with longstanding and severe COPD and 342 patients from the Spanish Phenotype and Course of COPD cohort study who had had their first hospital admission due to moderate-to-severe COPD. In both cohorts we compared the observed 3-year risk of all-cause mortality with the risk predicted by the BODE index. We then updated the BODE index and developed a simplified ADO index (including age, dyspnoea, and airflow obstruction) from the Swiss cohort, and validated both in the Spanish cohort.

FINDINGS

Calibration of the BODE index was poor, with relative underprediction of 3-year risk of mortality by 36% in the Swiss cohort (median predicted risk 21.7% [IQR 12.7-31.7] vs 34.1% observed risk; p=0.013) and relative overprediction by 39% in the Spanish cohort (16.7% [12.7-31.7] vs 12.0%; p=0.035). The 3-year risk of mortality predicted by both the updated BODE (median 10.7% [8.1-13.8]) and ADO indices (11.8% [9.1-14.3]) matched the observed mortality in the Spanish cohort well (p=0.99 and p=0.98, respectively).

INTERPRETATION

Both the updated BODE and ADO indices could lend support to the prognostic assessment of patients with COPD in specialised and primary-care settings. Such assessment enhances the targeting of treatments to individual patients.

FUNDING

Swiss National Science Foundation; Klinik Barmelweid; Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria Ministry of Health, Spain; Agència d'Avaluació de Tecnologia i Recerca Mèdiques, Catalonia Government; Spanish Society of Pneumology and Thoracic Surgery; Catalan Foundation of Pneumology; Red RESPIRA; Red RCESP; Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria; Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria; Fundació La Marató de TV3; Novartis Farmacèutica, Spain.

[Evaluation of cardiovascular risk in the longitudinal phase of the Mediterranean study]

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

There is little information on cardiovascular longitudinal studies. In Spanish patients with hypertension (AHT)) and/or hypercholesterolemia (HC), with poor initial control of blood pressure (BP) and/or total cholesterol (TC), incidence rate (IR), cumulative incidence (CI), relative risks (RR), survival curves (SC), therapeutic compliance (TC) were quantified and the Framingham-Anderson scale (FAS) was adjusted to our patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 6,893 primary prevention patients with AHT and/or with HC were included in primary prevention, with an average of 1.22 years of follow-up. A total of 480 physicians participated. Incidence rate (IR), cumulative incidence (CIN), relative risks (RR), survival curves (SC) by Kaplan-Meier method, and therapeutic compliance (TCOM) by Haynes-Sackett self-reported questionnaire were calculated. The Framingham-Anderson scale (FAS) was validated with Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) and intraclass correlation index (ICI).

RESULTS

CIN was 1.59% (1.31-1.90); the IR 1,321.6 cardiovascular events/ 100,000 patients/year (1,026.6-1,598.8). RRs with statistical significance were: age (p = 0.03). Blood pressure at the end of the study (p = 0.02), coronary background (p = 0.00), left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) (p = 0.00), microalbuminuria (p = 0.02), CT >/= 250 mg/dl (p = 0.01), fasting glycemia (Gb) >/= 126 mg/dl (p = 0.00), creatinine >/= 1.2 mg/dl at the beginning (p = 0.00) and at the end of the study (p = 0.00), and poor compliance in HC patients (p = 0.00). SC have statistical significance (p < 0.05) for AHT background, fasting glucose >/= 126 mg/dl, target organ damage, and high cardiovascular risk with FAS scale. The adjusted FAS formula for global cardiovascular risk was (0.415 x FAS Risk%) + 0.517%, r = 0.9962 (p = 0.00) and ICI = 0.9969 (p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

The equation for the FAS scale was adjusted for Spanish AHT/HC patients. Prognostic factors and SC were calculated. Benefit between TC and decrease of CVR in HC patients was quantified.

Cardiovascular disease risk in a semirural community in Malaysia

BACKGROUND AND AIM

It has been argued that cardiovascular disease (CVD) is not very prevalent in developing countries, particularly in a rural community. This study examined the prevalence of CVD risk of a semirural community in Malaysia through an epidemiological survey.

METHODS

Subjects were invited to a free health screening service carried out over a period of 6 weeks. Then, a follow-up study of the initial nonresponders was done in the villages that showed a poorer response. The survey was conducted using a standardized questionnaire. Hypertension was defined as blood pressure > or =140/90 mm Hg. The Framingham Coronary Disease Risk Prediction Score (FRS) was used as a measure of CVD risk.

RESULTS

A total of 1417 subjects participated in this survey. The response rate was 56%. A follow-up survey of the nonresponders did not show any differences from the initial responders in any systematic way. The prevalence of CVD risk factors was high in both men and women. The mean (+/-SD) FRS was 9.4 (+/-2.5) and 11.3 (+/-4.1) for men and women, respectively. The mean predicted coronary heart disease (CHD) risk was high at 20% to 25% for men and medium at 11% to 13% for women. Overall, 55.8% of the men had >20% risk of having a CHD event in the next 10 years whereas women's risk was lower, with 15.1% having a risk of > or =20%.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of CVD risk even in a semirural community of a developing country is high. Every effort should be made to lower these risk factors.

Changes in Lipid Profile Between Flare and Remission of Patients with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: A Prospective Study

Objective.

To determine the lipid profile of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) according to the disease activity, and to calculate the percentage of patients that diverged from optimal values.

Methods.

Serum was collected from 52 patients with SLE at flare and at remission. SLE disease activity was measured by using the SLE Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI). Clinical and biological measures were evaluated in both situations. Total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLC), and triglyceride (TG) levels were analyzed after overnight fasting. We also calculated the atherogenic ratios of TC/HDLC and LDLC/HDLC.

Results.

SLE patients had significantly higher median TC/HDLC and LDLC/HDLC ratios at flare than during remission: 4.5 ± 1.5 versus 3.9 ± 1.0 (p = 0.007) and 2.7 ± 1.1 versus 2.4 ± 0.8 (p = 0.015), respectively. The differences persisted after adjustments based on kidney disease and treatment but not after adjusting by creatinine clearance < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2in remission. The variation between flare and remission of the percentage of SLE patients with high-risk levels of lipid profile to desirable values, and vice versa, was statistically significant for the LDLC/HDLC ratio (9 vs 1; p = 0.021).

Conclusion.

Our results reflect a higher risk of atherosclerosis phenomena in SLE patients during flare than during clinical remission. This might explain the propensity to develop coronary heart disease in patients with SLE.

Hypertension: reflections on risks and prognostication

Framingham Heart Study cardiovascular disease prospective population epidemiologic research has played an important role in the evolution of modern cohort study design and the advancement of preventive cardiology. To date no single essential factor has been identified; multiple interrelated factors are promoting increased risk for development of CHD. Elevated blood pressure has emerged as a prominent member of cardiovascular risk factors. The study's documentation of a strong link of blood pressure to development of cardiovascular events stimulated the pharmaceutical industry to develop medications for controlling blood pressure and, in turn, national campaigns to combat hypertension and its adverse vascular outlook.

Inclusion of dietary evaluation in cardiovascular disease risk prediction models increases accuracy and reduces bias of the estimations

In the past few years, the prediction of CVD risk has received special attention; however, some investigators assert that risk models have so far not been very successful. Thus, we examined whether the inclusion of dietary evaluation in a risk prediction model that already contained the classical CVD risk factors increases the accuracy and reduces the bias in estimating future CVD events. The database of the ATTICA study (which included information from 1,514 men and 1,528 women) was used. At baseline, the HellenicSCORE values (based on age, gender, smoking, systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol) were calculated, while overall assessment of dietary habits was based on the Mediterranean diet score (MDS) that evaluates adherence to this traditional diet. In 2006, a five-year follow-up was performed in 2,101 participants and development of CVD (coronary heart disease, acute coronary syndromes, stroke, or other CVD) was defined according to WHO-ICD-10 criteria. The MDS and the HellenicSCORE were significant predictors of CVD events, even after adjusting for various potential confounders (p < 0.05). However, estimating bias (i.e., misclassification of cases) of the model that included HellenicSCORE and other potential confounders was 8.7%. The MDS was associated with the estimating bias of the outcome (p < 0.001) and explained 5.5% of this bias. Other baseline factors associated with bias were increased body mass index, low education status, and increased energy intake/BMR ratio. The inclusion of dietary evaluation, as well as other Sociodemographic and anthropometric characteristics, increases the accuracy and reduces estimating bias of CVD risk prediction models.

[Influence of morbidity, metabolic control, and use of resources in subjects with cardiovascular risk in the primary care setting]

OBJECTIVE

To determine the comorbidity, the therapeutic objectives, and economic impact in subjects with cardiovascular risk in primary care (PC).

DESIGN

Multicentre, cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Five urban PC centres, Spain.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients over 55 years seen during the year 2006. Compared according to the presence/absence of a cardiovascular event (CVE).

MEASUREMENTS

Demographics, cardiovascular/general comorbidity (adjusted clinical groups), Charlson index, clinical parameters, multiple drugs and semi-fixed direct costs (operational) and variables (tests, referrals, drugs). A logistical regression and ANCOVA analysis was performed to correct the models. SPSSWIN Program (P< .05).

RESULTS

Of 24 410 patients, 15.4% (CI, 14.9-15.9) had a CVE. The subjects with a CVE showed a higher mortality (4.0% vs 1.8%) and general morbidity (8.1 vs 6.4 episodes) (P< .001). The CVE had an independent association in males (OR=2.7), Charlson index (OR=2.1), dyslipaemia (OR=1.5), depression (OR=1.4), age (OR=1.3), arterial hypertension (OR=1.2) and diabetes (OR=1.1) (P< .005). In primary prevention worse average cholesterols were obtained (211.6 vs 192.4 mg/dL), while in secondary prevention blood glucose was worse (111.3 vs 104.2 mg/dL; P< .001). The average corrected direct costs were euro1543.55 versus euro1027.65, respectively (P< .001). These differences were maintained in all the cost components.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of a CVE is associated with higher comorbidity, causing an increase in costs. The achievement of therapeutic control objectives could be improved, in primary prevention as well as in secondary. Intervention strategies should be increased to modify life styles in these patients.

Predictive accuracy and usefulness of calibration of the ESC SCORE in Switzerland

BACKGROUND

Prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at the individual level should rely on the assessment of absolute risk using population-specific risk tables.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the predictive accuracy of the original and the calibrated SCORE functions regarding 10-year cardiovascular risk in Switzerland.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional, population-based study (5773 participants aged 35-74 years).

METHODS

The SCORE equation for low-risk countries was calibrated based on the Swiss CVD mortality rates and on the CVD risk factor levels from the study sample. The predicted number of CVD deaths after a 10-year period was computed from the original and the calibrated equations and from the observed cardiovascular mortality for 2003.

RESULTS

According to the original and calibrated functions, 16.3 and 15.8% of men and 8.2 and 8.9% of women, respectively, had a 10-year CVD risk > or =5%. Concordance correlation coefficient between the two functions was 0.951 for men and 0.948 for women, both P<0.001. Both risk functions adequately predicted the 10-year cumulative number of CVD deaths: in men, 71 (original) and 74 (calibrated) deaths for 73 deaths when using the CVD mortality rates; in women, 44 (original), 45 (calibrated) and 45 (CVD mortality rates), respectively. Compared to the original function, the calibrated function classified more women and fewer men at high-risk. Moreover, the calibrated function gave better risk estimates among participants aged over 65 years.

CONCLUSION

The original SCORE function adequately predicts CVD death in Switzerland, particularly for individuals aged less than 65 years. The calibrated function provides more reliable estimates for older individuals.

Cardiovascular risk after bariatric surgery for obesity

Obese patients have an increased prevalence of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors, which improve with bariatric surgery, but whether bariatric surgery reduces long-term CV events remains ill defined. A systematic review of published research was conducted, and CV risk models were applied in a validation cohort previously published. A standardized MEDLINE search using terms associated with obesity, bariatric surgery, and CV risk factors identified 6 test studies. The validation cohort consisted of a population-based, historical cohort of 197 patients who underwent Roux-en-Y gastric bypass and 163 control patients, identified through the Rochester Epidemiology Project. Framingham and Prospective Cardiovascular Munster Heart Study (PROCAM) risk scores were applied to calculate 10-year CV risk. In the validation cohort, absolute 10-year Framingham risk score for CV events was lower at follow-up in the bariatric surgery group (7.0% to 3.5%, p <0.001) compared with controls (7.1% to 6.5%, p = 0.13), with an intergroup absolute difference in risk reduction of 3% (p <0.001). PROCAM risk in the bariatric surgery group decreased from 4.1% to 2.0% (p <0.001), whereas the control group exhibited only a modest decrease (4.4% to 3.8%, p = 0.08). Using mean data from the validation study, the trend and directionality in risk was similar in the Roux-en-Y group. The test studies confirmed the directionality of CV risk, with estimated relative risk reductions for bariatric surgery patients ranging from 18% to 79% using the Framingham risk score compared with 8% to 62% using the PROCAM risk score. In conclusion, bariatric surgery predicts long-term decreases in CV risk in obese patients.

Implementing the European guidelines for cardiovascular disease prevention in the primary care setting in Cyprus: lessons learned from a health care services study

BACKGROUND

Recent guidelines recommend assessment and treatment of the overall risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) through management of multiple risk factors in patients at high absolute risk. The aim of our study was to assess the level of cardiovascular risk in patients with known risk factors for CVD by applying the SCORE risk function and to study the implications of European guidelines on the use of treatment and goal attainment for blood pressure (BP) and lipids in the primary care of Cyprus.

METHODS

Retrospective chart review of 1101 randomly selected patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2), or hypertension or hyperlipidemia in four primary care health centres. The SCORE risk function for high-risk regions was used to calculate 10-year risk of cardiovascular fatal event. Most recent values of BP and lipids were used to assess goal attainment to international standards. Most updated medications lists were used to compare proportions of current with recommended antihypertensive and lipid-lowering drug (LLD) users according to European guidelines.

RESULTS

Implementation of the SCORE risk model labelled overall 39.7% (53.6% of men, 31.3% of women) of the study population as high risk individuals (CVD, DM2 or SCORE > or =5%). The SCORE risk chart was not applicable in 563 patients (51.1%) due to missing data in the patient records, mostly on smoking habits. The LDL-C goal was achieved in 28.6%, 19.5% and 20.9% of patients with established CVD, DM2 (no CVD) and SCORE > or =5%, respectively. BP targets were achieved in 55.4%, 5.6% and 41.9% respectively for the above groups. There was under prescription of antihypertensive drugs, LLD and aspirin for all three high risk groups.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated suboptimal control and under-treatment of patients with cardiovascular risk factors in the primary care in Cyprus. Improvement of documentation of clinical information in the medical records as well as GPs training for implementation and adherence to clinical practice guidelines are potential areas for further discussion and research.

Evaluating the added predictive ability of a new marker: from area under the ROC curve to reclassification and beyond

Identification of key factors associated with the risk of developing cardiovascular disease and quantification of this risk using multivariable prediction algorithms are among the major advances made in preventive cardiology and cardiovascular epidemiology in the 20th century. The ongoing discovery of new risk markers by scientists presents opportunities and challenges for statisticians and clinicians to evaluate these biomarkers and to develop new risk formulations that incorporate them. One of the key questions is how best to assess and quantify the improvement in risk prediction offered by these new models. Demonstration of a statistically significant association of a new biomarker with cardiovascular risk is not enough. Some researchers have advanced that the improvement in the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) should be the main criterion, whereas others argue that better measures of performance of prediction models are needed. In this paper, we address this question by introducing two new measures, one based on integrated sensitivity and specificity and the other on reclassification tables. These new measures offer incremental information over the AUC. We discuss the properties of these new measures and contrast them with the AUC. We also develop simple asymptotic tests of significance. We illustrate the use of these measures with an example from the Framingham Heart Study. We propose that scientists consider these types of measures in addition to the AUC when assessing the performance of newer biomarkers.

[Coronary disease risk attributable to cardiovascular risk factors in the Spanish population]

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

The proportion of the ischemic heart disease (IHD) burden attributable to cardiovascular risk factors in Spain has traditionally been extrapolated from populations in other countries. The aim of this study was to estimate the IHD risk attributable to smoking, hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, diabetes and excess weight using data from studies carried out in the Spanish population.

METHODS

Data on the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in the general population were obtained from a meta-analysis of 48 cross-sectional studies carried out in Spain, and data on corresponding prevalences among IHD patients were derived from the PRIAMHO II and PREVESE II multicenter hospital registries. Crude and adjusted relative risks of IHD were obtained from follow-up data collected over 5 years in a primary-care cohort of 6124 adults without cardiovascular disease. The crude and adjusted population attributable fractions for various risk factors were calculated for both sexes combined and for men and women separately.

RESULTS

Among men, 42.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.8%-59.6%) of the adjusted incidence of IHD was attributable to overweight, 33.9% (95% CI 22.6%-41.0%) to smoking, 19.4% (95% CI 8.2%-26.5%) to hypercholesterolemia, and 15.5% (95% CI 1.6%-24.6%) to hypertension. Among women, 36.5% (95% CI -8.0%-56.3%) of IHD cases were attributable to overweight, 24.8% (95% CI 12.0%-31.9%) to diabetes, and 20.1% (95% CI 6.1%-28.6%) to hypercholesterolemia.

CONCLUSIONS

The cardiovascular risk factors found to contribute most to IHD in the Spanish population were excess weight in both sexes, followed by smoking in men.

The relative value of metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular risk score estimates in premature acute coronary syndromes

BACKGROUND

To compare the relative value of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and cardiovascular risk score estimates in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) aged <45 years.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Two hundred consecutive patients (183 men, mean age 40.8 +/- 3.5 years) presented with a first-ever ACS, and 200 age-and sex-matched controls were evaluated. Metabolic syndrome diagnostic criteria, European Risk SCORE estimation function, and the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) were assessed in all participants.

RESULTS

The prevalence of the MetS was significantly higher in the patients' group compared with the control group (51.5% vs 26.0%, P < .001). No subjects with a SCORE >1.0% were identified. The mean 10-year FRS for patients and controls was 13.03% +/- 7.96% and 10.02 +/- 8.10%, respectively (P < .001), whereas only 22.5% of ACS patients had a 10-year risk >20.0% compared with 14.5% of controls (P = .04). After controlling for potential confounders, MetS was associated with 1.93 (95% CI 1.13-3.28, P = .01) higher odds of having an ACS. Moreover, the odds had a positive association with the increasing cumulative number of MetS components. Crude and adjusted ORs for the FRS were 1.05 (95% CI 1.029-1.08, P = .001) and 0.98 (95% CI 0.92-1.05, P = NS), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Metabolic syndrome is highly associated with ACS in subjects <45 years of age and seems to be more valuable than established cardiovascular risk calculators.

Aspirin use for the primary prevention of coronary heart disease: a population-based study in Switzerland

OBJECTIVE

To determine the patterns of aspirin use for the primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD). Aspirin for primary prevention has a more favorable risk/benefit profile among adults with high CHD risk than among low-risk adults.

METHOD

We studied 5725 adults aged 35-75 without cardiovascular disease in a population-based study in Switzerland in 2003-2006. We examined regular aspirin use for cardiovascular prevention according to 10-year CHD risk and other cardiovascular risk factors.

RESULTS

One hundred seventy-four participants used aspirin. Aspirin use increased with 10-year CHD risk, from 2.6% in persons with risk <6% (low risk) to 9% in those with risk 6-20% (intermediate risk, p=0.001), but no adults with risk >or=20% used aspirin. Participants with cardiovascular risk factors were more likely to use aspirin. However, 1.9% adults with risk <6% and no diabetes used aspirin. Using a population perspective, a more appropriate aspirin use would reduce up to 2,348/24,310 CHD deaths expected over 10 years in Switzerland, and avoid about 700 gastrointestinal bleedings and hemorrhagic strokes among those not eligible.

CONCLUSION

Individuals at intermediate CHD risk and diabetics are more likely to take aspirin, but there are significant opportunities for improvement. The underuse of aspirin for those at risk coexists with an overuse among those at low risk.

General cardiovascular risk profile for use in primary care: the Framingham Heart Study

BACKGROUND

Separate multivariable risk algorithms are commonly used to assess risk of specific atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, ie, coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral vascular disease, and heart failure. The present report presents a single multivariable risk function that predicts risk of developing all CVD and of its constituents.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used Cox proportional-hazards regression to evaluate the risk of developing a first CVD event in 8491 Framingham study participants (mean age, 49 years; 4522 women) who attended a routine examination between 30 and 74 years of age and were free of CVD. Sex-specific multivariable risk functions ("general CVD" algorithms) were derived that incorporated age, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, treatment for hypertension, smoking, and diabetes status. We assessed the performance of the general CVD algorithms for predicting individual CVD events (coronary heart disease, stroke, peripheral artery disease, or heart failure). Over 12 years of follow-up, 1174 participants (456 women) developed a first CVD event. All traditional risk factors evaluated predicted CVD risk (multivariable-adjusted P<0.0001). The general CVD algorithm demonstrated good discrimination (C statistic, 0.763 [men] and 0.793 [women]) and calibration. Simple adjustments to the general CVD risk algorithms allowed estimation of the risks of each CVD component. Two simple risk scores are presented, 1 based on all traditional risk factors and the other based on non-laboratory-based predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

A sex-specific multivariable risk factor algorithm can be conveniently used to assess general CVD risk and risk of individual CVD events (coronary, cerebrovascular, and peripheral arterial disease and heart failure). The estimated absolute CVD event rates can be used to quantify risk and to guide preventive care.

The ability of the SCORE high-risk model to predict 10-year cardiovascular disease mortality in Norway

AIMS

To evaluate the predictive accuracy of the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) project high-risk function in Norway.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We included 57 229 individuals screened in 1985-1992 from two population-based surveys in Norway (age groups 40-49, 50-59, and 60-69 years). The data have been linked to the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. The SCORE high-risk algorithm for the prediction of 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality was applied, and the risk factors entered into the model were age, sex, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, and smoking (yes/no). The number of expected events estimated by the SCORE model (E) was compared with the observed numbers (O). The SCORE low-risk algorithm was studied for comparison. In men, the observed number of CVD deaths was 718, compared with 1464 estimated by the SCORE high-risk function (O/E ratios 0.53, 0.53 and 0.45, for age groups 40-49, 50-59 and 60-69, respectively). In women, the observed and expected numbers were 226 and 547. The O/E ratios decreased with age (ratios 0.60, 0.45 and 0.37, respectively), i.e. the overestimation increased with age. The low-risk function predicted reasonably well for men (ratios 0.85, 0.92 and 0.79, respectively), whereas an overestimation was found for women aged 50-59 and 60-69 years (ratios 0.69 and 0.56, respectively).

CONCLUSION

The SCORE high-risk model overestimated the number of CVD deaths in Norway. Before implementation in clinical practice, proper adjustments to national levels are required.

Validity of an adaptation of the Framingham cardiovascular risk function: the VERIFICA Study

BACKGROUND

To assess the reliability and accuracy of the Framingham coronary heart disease (CHD) risk function adapted by the Registre Gironí del Cor (REGICOR) investigators in Spain.

METHODS

A 5-year follow-up study was completed in 5732 participants aged 35-74 years. The adaptation consisted of using in the function the average population risk factor prevalence and the cumulative incidence observed in Spain instead of those from Framingham in a Cox proportional hazards model. Reliability and accuracy in estimating the observed cumulative incidence were tested with the area under the curve comparison and goodness-of-fit test, respectively.

RESULTS

The Kaplan-Meier CHD cumulative incidence during the follow-up was 4.0% in men and 1.7% in women. The original Framingham function and the REGICOR adapted estimates were 10.4% and 4.8%, and 3.6% and 2.0%, respectively. The REGICOR-adapted function's estimate did not differ from the observed cumulated incidence (goodness of fit in men, p = 0.078, in women, p = 0.256), whereas all the original Framingham function estimates differed significantly (p<0.001). Reliabilities of the original Framingham function and of the best Cox model fit with the study data were similar in men (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve 0.68 and 0.69, respectively, p = 0.273), whereas the best Cox model fitted better in women (0.73 and 0.81, respectively, p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

The Framingham function adapted to local population characteristics accurately and reliably predicted the 5-year CHD risk for patients aged 35-74 years, in contrast with the original function, which consistently overestimated the actual risk.

Can non-physician health-care workers assess and manage cardiovascular risk in primary care?

OBJECTIVE

To ascertain the reliability of applying the WHO Cardiovascular Risk Management Package by non-physician health-care workers (NPHWs) in typical primary health-care settings.

METHODS

Based on an a priori 80% agreement level between the NPHWs and the "expert" physicians (gold standard), 649 paired (matched) applications of the protocol were obtained for analysis using Kappa statistic and multivariate logit regression.

FINDINGS

Results indicate over 80% agreement between raters, from moderate to perfect levels of agreement in almost all of the sections in the package. The odds of obtaining a difference between raters and a benchmark are not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

Applying the WHO Cardiovascular Risk Management Package, NPHWs can be retrained to reliably and effectively assess and manage cardiovascular risks in primary health-care settings where there are no attending physicians. The package could be a useful tool for scaling up the management of cardiovascular diseases in primary health care.