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For:	De Lorenzo F, Kakkar VV. Might cold adaptation reduce cardiovascular mortality during winter? Arch Intern Med 1999;159:1954. [PMID: 10493327 DOI: 10.1001/archinte.159.16.1954] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022]

Number	Cited by Other Article(s)
1	Excess winter mortality and cold temperatures in a subtropical city, Guangzhou, China. PLoS One 2013;8:e77150. [PMID: 24116214 PMCID: PMC3792910 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0077150] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2013] [Accepted: 08/30/2013] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open Abstract BACKGROUND A significant increase in mortality was observed during cold winters in many temperate regions. However, there is a lack of evidence from tropical and subtropical regions, and the influence of ambient temperatures on seasonal variation of mortality was not well documented. METHODS This study included 213,737 registered deaths from January 2003 to December 2011 in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in Southern China. Excess winter mortality was calculated by the excess percentage of monthly mortality in winters over that of non-winter months. A generalized linear model with a quasi-Poisson distribution was applied to analyze the association between monthly mean temperature and mortality, after controlling for other meteorological measures and air pollution. RESULTS The mortality rate in the winter was 26% higher than the average rate in other seasons. On average, there were 1,848 excess winter deaths annually, with around half (52%) from cardiovascular diseases and a quarter (24%) from respiratory diseases. Excess winter mortality was higher in the elderly, females and those with low education level than the young, males and those with high education level, respectively. A much larger winter increase was observed in out-of-hospital mortality compared to in-hospital mortality (45% vs. 17%). We found a significant negative correlation of annual excess winter mortality with average winter temperature (rs=-0.738, P=0.037), but not with air pollution levels. A 1 °C decrease in monthly mean temperature was associated with an increase of 1.38% (95% CI:0.34%-2.40%) and 0.88% (95% CI:0.11%-1.64%) in monthly mortality at lags of 0-1 month, respectively. CONCLUSION Similar to temperate regions, a subtropical city Guangzhou showed a clear seasonal pattern in mortality, with a sharper spike in winter. Our results highlight the role of cold temperature on the winter mortality even in warm climate. Precautionary measures should be strengthened to mitigate cold-related mortality for people living in warm climate. Collapse Key Words Collapse MESH Headings Adolescent Adult Aged Air Pollution/adverse effects Cause of Death Child Child, Preschool China Climate Cold Temperature/adverse effects Female Hospital Mortality Humans Infant Infant, Newborn Male Middle Aged Models, Statistical Seasons Young Adult Collapse Grants Collapse Affiliation(s) Collapse

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Cited by Other Article(s)

Excess winter mortality and cold temperatures in a subtropical city, Guangzhou, China. PLoS One 2013;8:e77150. [PMID: 24116214 PMCID: PMC3792910 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0077150] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2013] [Accepted: 08/30/2013] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open

Abstract

BACKGROUND

A significant increase in mortality was observed during cold winters in many temperate regions. However, there is a lack of evidence from tropical and subtropical regions, and the influence of ambient temperatures on seasonal variation of mortality was not well documented.

METHODS

This study included 213,737 registered deaths from January 2003 to December 2011 in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in Southern China. Excess winter mortality was calculated by the excess percentage of monthly mortality in winters over that of non-winter months. A generalized linear model with a quasi-Poisson distribution was applied to analyze the association between monthly mean temperature and mortality, after controlling for other meteorological measures and air pollution.

RESULTS

The mortality rate in the winter was 26% higher than the average rate in other seasons. On average, there were 1,848 excess winter deaths annually, with around half (52%) from cardiovascular diseases and a quarter (24%) from respiratory diseases. Excess winter mortality was higher in the elderly, females and those with low education level than the young, males and those with high education level, respectively. A much larger winter increase was observed in out-of-hospital mortality compared to in-hospital mortality (45% vs. 17%). We found a significant negative correlation of annual excess winter mortality with average winter temperature (rs=-0.738, P=0.037), but not with air pollution levels. A 1 °C decrease in monthly mean temperature was associated with an increase of 1.38% (95% CI:0.34%-2.40%) and 0.88% (95% CI:0.11%-1.64%) in monthly mortality at lags of 0-1 month, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Similar to temperate regions, a subtropical city Guangzhou showed a clear seasonal pattern in mortality, with a sharper spike in winter. Our results highlight the role of cold temperature on the winter mortality even in warm climate. Precautionary measures should be strengthened to mitigate cold-related mortality for people living in warm climate.

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