Risk-Dependent Conditional Survival and Failure Hazard After Radiotherapy for Early-Stage Extranodal Natural Killer/T-Cell Lymphoma

Conditional survival and annual hazard of death in older patients with esophageal cancer receiving definitive chemoradiotherapy

BACKGROUND

Definitive chemoradiotherapy is one of the primary treatment modalities for older patients with esophageal cancer (EC). However, the evolution of prognosis over time and the factors affected non-EC deaths remain inadequately studied. We examined the conditional survival and annual hazard of death in older patients with EC after chemoradiotherapy.

METHODS

We collected data from patients aged 65 or older with EC registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database during 2000-2019. Conditional survival was defined as the probability of survival given a specific time survived. Annual hazard of death was defined the yearly event rate. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis identified the association of age at diagnosis with mortality.

RESULTS

Among 3739 patients, the 3-year conditional overall survival increased annually by 7-10%. Non-EC causes accounted for 18.8% of deaths, predominantly due to cardio-cerebrovascular diseases. The hazard of death decreased from 40 to 10% in the first 6 years and then gradually increased to 20% in the tenth year. Non-EC causes surpassed EC causes in hazard starting 5 years post-treatment. RCS indicated a consistent increase in death hazard with advancing age, following a linear relationship. The overall cohort was divided into two groups: 65-74 and ≥ 75 years old, with the ≥ 75-year-old group showing poorer survival and earlier onset of non-EC deaths (HR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.15-1.62, P < 0.001). Patients with early-stage disease (I-II) had higher risks of death from non-EC causes (HR = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.68-0.98, P = 0.035). Tumor histology had no significant impact on non-EC death risk (HR = 1.17, 95% CI: 0.98-1.39, P = 0.081).

CONCLUSIONS

Survival probability increases with time for older patients with EC treated with chemoradiotherapy. Clinicians and patients should prioritize managing and preventing age-related comorbidities, especially in older cohorts and those with early-stage disease.

Outcome and risk prediction of early progression in patients with extranodal natural killer/T cell lymphoma from the CLCG study

Recently, progression-free survival at 24 months (PFS24) was defined as clinically relevant for patients with extranodal NK/T cell lymphoma. Herein, the clinical data from two independent random cohorts (696 patients each in the primary and validation datasets) were used to develop and validate a risk index for PFS24 (PFS24-RI), and evaluate its ability to predict early progression. Patients achieving PFS24 had a 5-year overall survival (OS) of 95.8%, whereas OS was only 21.2% in those failing PFS24 (P<0.001). PFS24 was an important predictor of subsequent OS, independent of risk stratification. The proportion of patients achieving PFS24 and 5-year OS rates correlated linearly among risk-stratified groups. Based on multivariate analysis of the primary dataset, the PFS24-RI included five risk factors: stage II or III/IV, elevated lactate dehydrogenase, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group score ≥2, primary tumor invasion, and extra-upper aerodigestive tract. PFS24-RI stratified the patients into low-risk (0), intermediate-risk (1-2), high-risk (≥3) groups with different prognoses. Harrell's C-index of PFS24-RI for PFS24 prediction was 0.667 in the validation dataset, indicating a good discriminative ability. PFS24-RI calibration indicated that the actual observed and predicted probability of failing PFS24 agreed well. PFS24-RI provided the probability of achieving PFS24 at an individual patient level.

Evidence of cure for extranodal nasal-type natural killer/T-cell lymphoma with current treatment: an analysis of the CLCG database

Survival from extranodal nasal-type NK/T-cell lymphoma (ENKTCL) has substantially improved over the last decade. However, there is little consensus as to whether a population of patients with ENKTCL can be considered "cured" of the disease. We aimed to evaluate the statistical "cure" of ENKTCL in the modern treatment era. This retrospective multicentric study reviewed the clinical data of 1,955 patients with ENKTCL treated with non-anthracycline-based chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy in the China Lymphoma Collaborative Group multicenter database between 2008 and 2016. A non-mixture cure model with incorporation of background mortality was fitted to estimate cure fractions, median survival times and cure time points. The relative survival curves attained plateau for the entire cohort and most subsets, indicating that the notion of cure was robust. The overall cure fraction was 71.9%. The median survival was 1.1 years in uncured patients. The cure time was 4.5 years, indicating that beyond this time, mortality in ENKTCL patients was statistically equivalent to that in the general population. Cure probability was associated with B symptoms, stage, performance status, lactate dehydrogenase, primary tumor invasion, and primary upper aerodigestive tract site. Elderly patients (>60 years) had a similar cure fraction to that of younger patients. The 5-year overall survival rate correlated well with the cure fraction across risk-stratified groups. Thus, statistical cure is possible in ENKTCL patients receiving current treatment strategies. Overall probability of cure is favorable, though it is affected by the presence of risk factors. These findings have a high potential impact on clinical practice and patients' perspective.

Risk-dependent conditional survival analysis and annual hazard rate of inflammatory breast cancer

PURPOSE

The real-time prognosis of patients with inflammatory breast cancer (IBC) after surviving for several years was unclear. We aimed to estimate survival over time in IBC using conditional survival (CS) and annual hazard functions.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This study recruited 679 patients diagnosed with IBC between 2010 and 2019 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We used the Kaplan-Meier method to estimate overall survival (OS). CS was the probability of surviving for another y years after surviving for x years after the diagnosis, and the annual hazard rate was the cumulative mortality rate of follow-up patients. Cox regression analyses were used to identify prognostic factors, and changes in real-time survival and immediate mortality in surviving patients were assessed within these prognostic factors.

RESULTS

CS analysis showed real-time improvement in survival, with 5-year OS updated annually from the initial 43.5% to 52.2%, 65.3%, 78.5%, and 89.0% (surviving 1-4 years, respectively). However, this improvement was relatively small in the first two years after diagnosis, and the smoothed annual hazard rate curve showed increasing mortality during this period. Cox regression identified seven unfavorable factors at diagnosis, but only distant metastases remained after five years of survival. Analysis of the annual hazard rate curves showed that mortality continued to decrease for most survivors, except for metastatic IBC.

CONCLUSION

Real-time survival of IBC improved dynamically over time, and the magnitude of this improvement was non-linear, depending on survival time and clinicopathological characteristics.

Conditional survival nomogram for monitoring real-time survival of young non-metastatic nasopharyngeal cancer survivors

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to clarify the improvement of the overall survival (OS) over time in young non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) survivors by conditional survival (CS) analysis and to construct a CS-nomogram for updating individualized real-time prognosis.

METHODS

The study included 3409 young non-metastatic NPC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2004-2019). OS was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. CS was calculated based on CS(y|x) = OS(y + x)/OS(x), defined as the probability that a patient would survive for another y years after surviving for x years since diagnosis. We identified predictors using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and developed the CS-nomogram using multivariate Cox regression and the CS formula.

RESULTS

CS analysis showed a continuous increase in 10-year OS for young non-metastatic NPC from the initial 60.4% to 65.0%, 70.2%, 74.2%, 78.2%, 82.6%, 86.9%, 91.1%, 96.2% and 97.0% (surviving 1-9 years after diagnosis, respectively). After screening by LASSO regression, age, race, marital status, histological type, T- and N-status were used as predictors to construct the CS-nomogram. The model accurately estimated the real-time prognosis of survivors during follow-up with a stable time-dependent area under the curve (AUC).

CONCLUSIONS

CS analysis based on SEER database calibrated the real-time prognosis of young non-metastatic NPC survivors, revealing a dynamic improvement during follow-up time. We developed a novel CS-nomogram to update survival data for real-time optimization of monitoring strategies, medical resource allocation, and patient counseling. However, it was important to note that the model still needed external data validation and continuous improvement.

Risk stratification and prognostic value of multi-modal MRI-based radiomics for extranodal nasal-type NK/T-cell lymphoma

BACKGROUND

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) performs well in the locoregional assessment of extranodal nasal-type NK/T-cell lymphoma (ENKTCL). It's important to assess the value of multi-modal MRI-based radiomics for estimating overall survival (OS) in patients with ENKTCL.

METHODS

Patients with ENKTCL in a prospectively cohort were systemically reviewed and all the pretreatment MRI were acquisitioned. An unsupervised spectral clustering method was used to identify risk groups of patients and radiomic features. A nomogram-revised risk index (NRI) plus MRI radiomics signature (NRI-M) was developed, and compared with the NRI.

RESULTS

The 2 distinct type I and II groups of the MRI radiomics signatures were identified. The 5-year OS rates between the type I and type II groups were 87.2% versus 67.3% (P = 0.002) in all patients, and 88.8% versus 69.2% (P = 0.003) in early-stage patients. The discrimination and calibration of the NRI-M for OS prediction demonstrated a better performance than that of either MRI radiomics or NRI, with a mean area under curve (AUC) of 0.748 and 0.717 for predicting the 5-year OS in all-stages and early-stage patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The NRI-M model has good performance for predicting the prognosis of ENKTCL and may help design clinical trials and improve clinical decision making.

Characteristics and prognosis of distant metastasis after primary treatment for early-stage extranodal nasal-type natural killer/T-cell lymphoma from the China Lymphoma Collaborative Group database

This study aimed to investigate the characteristics and prognosis of distant metastasis (DM) after primary treatment for early-stage extranodal nasal-type natural killer (NK)/T-cell lymphoma (ENKTCL). A total of 1619 patients from the China Lymphoma Collaborative Group database were retrospectively reviewed. The cumulative incidence of DM was assessed using Fine and Gray's competing risk analysis. The correlation between DM sites was evaluated using phi coefficients, while DM sites were classified using hierarchical clustering. Regression analysis was used to assess the linear correlation between DM-free survival (DMFS) and overall survival (OS). The 5-year cumulative DM rate was 26.2%, with the highest annual hazard rate being in the first year (14.9%). The most frequent DM sites were the skin and soft tissues (SSTs, 32.4%) and distant lymph nodes (LNs, 31.3%). DM sites were categorized into four subgroups of distinct prognosis - distant LN, SST, extracutaneous site, and lymphoma-associated hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis. SST or distant LN, solitary metastasis, and late-onset DM demonstrated a relatively favorable prognosis. Contemporary chemotherapy significantly decreased DM rates and improved DMFS. Decreased DM rates were further associated with increased OS probabilities. Our findings improve the understanding of the variable clinical behaviors of early-stage ENKTCL based on four distinct DM sites and thus provide guidance for future therapeutic decisions, metastatic surveillance, and translational trial design.

The value of routine bone marrow examination in patients with extranodal NK/T-cell lymphoma staged with PET/CT

BACKGROUND

Limited evidence supports the omission of routine bone marrow (BM) examination (biopsy and aspiration) in patients with nasal-type extranodal NK/T-cell lymphoma (ENKTCL). This study was aimed at assessing whether BM examination provides valuable information for positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT)-based staging in this patient population.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients newly diagnosed with ENKTCL who underwent initial staging with both PET/CT and BM examination between 2013 and 2020 were retrospectively identified in two Chinese institutions. Overall, 742 patients were included; the BM examination was positive in 67 patients.

RESULTS

Compared with BM biopsy alone, the combination of BM biopsy and aspiration assessment did not afford any additional diagnostic value. No patient with a positive BM biopsy was found to have early-stage disease by PET/CT. BM biopsy or PET/CT led to upstaging from stage III to IV as a result of BM involvement in 21 patients. In 135 patients with distant organ involvement, BM involvement was associated with worse overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) compared with the corresponding durations in patients without BM involvement (2-year OS: 35.9% vs. 60.4%, p < .001; PFS: 26% vs. 40.7%, p = .003). No difference in survival was noted between groups judged positive based on PET/CT and BM biopsy.

CONCLUSION

Compared with aspiration, BM biopsy led to the detection of more BM lesions. Baseline PET/CT can be safely used to exclude BM involvement in early-stage disease. Overall, routine BM examination affords diagnostic or prognostic value over PET/CT in patients with advanced-stage nasal-type ENKTCL.

Process Mining the Performance of a Real-Time Healthcare 4.0 Systems Using Conditional Survival Models

As the world moves into the exciting age of Healthcare 4.0, it is essential that patients and clinicians have confidence and reassurance that the real-time clinical decision support systems being used throughout their care guarantee robustness and optimal quality of care. However, current systems involving autonomic behaviour and those with no prior clinical feedback, have generally to date had little focus on demonstrating robustness in the use of data and final output, thus generating a lack of confidence. This paper wishes to address this challenge by introducing a new process mining approach based on a statistically robust methodology that relies on the utilisation of conditional survival models for the purpose of evaluating the performance of Healthcare 4.0 systems and the quality of the care provided. Its effectiveness is demonstrated by analysing the performance of a clinical decision support system operating in an intensive care setting with the goal to monitor ventilated patients in real-time and to notify clinicians if the patient is predicted at risk of receiving injurious mechanical ventilation. Additionally, we will also demonstrate how the same metrics can be used for evaluating the patient quality of care. The proposed methodology can be used to analyse the performance of any Healthcare 4.0 system and the quality of care provided to the patient.

Conditional catheter-related thrombosis free probability and risk-adapted choices of catheter for lung cancer

Background

Current predictive tools assess catheter‐related thrombosis (CRT) in patients with lung cancer in a static manner at a single time point of catheterization. The subsequent hazard changes over time are unknown. The conditional catheter‐related thrombosis‐free probability (CCFP) can provide dynamic information on continual CRT‐free expectations. This study aimed to assess the CCFP and hazard rates based on risk categories and various venous access devices (VADs).

Methods

This retrospective study reviewed 939 patients with lung cancer with peripherally inserted central venous catheters (PICCs) or central venous catheters (CVCs) identified at the National Clinical Research Center for Cancer between January 1, 2015 and December 31, 2018. The incidence of CRT has also been reported. Patients were stratified into low‐ and high‐risk groups according to multivariate Cox regression analyses. CCFP is defined as the CRT‐free probability given that patients have no CRT for a definite time.

Results

A total of 507 patients with PICCs and 432 patients with CVCs were included in this study. The 3‐month CCFP increased from 74.2% at catheter insertion to 93.6% at 3 months. The hazards of CRT in the first month were highest (16.4%) and slightly thereafter. The high‐risk group initially had a higher (21.4%) but significantly decreased CRT hazard after 2 months (8.3%), whereas the low‐risk group maintained a comparable lower risk hazard of less than 5% after 1 month. In the overall cohort, patients with CVCs had lower CRT probability than those with PICCs (HR, 1.76; 95% CI: 1.28–2.41; p < 0.01). Further analysis demonstrated that compared with PICCs, CVCs provided a CRT‐free benefit in low‐risk patients (p = 0.02) but not in high‐risk patients (p = 0.06).

Conclusions

CCFP increased, and the hazards of CRT decreased over time in a risk‐dependent manner in patients with lung cancer. These valuable dynamic data may help optimize risk‐adjusted choices of VADs and risk‐adjusted prophylactic anticoagulation strategies for patients.

Survival and prognostic analysis of T-cell lymphoblastic lymphoma patients treated with dose-adjusted BFM-90 regimen

We aimed to investigate the long-term prognosis and prognostic factors of T-cell lymphoblastic lymphoma (T-LBL) patients who received dose-adjusted Berlin–Frankfurt–Münster (BFM)-90 regimen as first-line therapy in our center. A total of 145 T-LBL patients who underwent first-line dose-adjusted BFM-90 was retrospectively reviewed. Conditional survival analysis was used to evaluate the long-term prognosis of patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was applied to determine the optimal cut-off value for neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR). Estimated 3-year overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) rates for overall were 66.8% and 58.4%, respectively. Conditional survival analysis showed that for patients having survived 3 and 5 years or more after the completion of the treatment, the estimated subsequent 3-year OS thereafter increased to 85.7% and 94.3, respectively. Patients receiving consolidation APBSCT (Autologous peripheral blood stem cell transplantation) after BFM-90 regimen had superior 3-year OS than those with non-APBSCT (79.1% vs. 33.4%, p<0.001). We also discovered that baseline NLR ≥4.95 was negatively associated with OS (HR=2.75, 95% CI 1.55-4.89, p=0.015) and PFS (HR=2.07, 95% CI 1.25-4.96, p=0.021) via multivariable analysis. Conclusions: The survival probability of T-LBL patients treated with first-line dose-adjusted BFM-90 has improved significantly as patients have survived for every additional year. The addition of consolidation APBSCT following dose-adjusted BFM-90 therapy bring further survival benefits for those patients. Baseline NLR ≥4.95 was an independent risk factor for T-LBL patients in our study.

GELAD chemotherapy with sandwiched radiotherapy for patients with newly diagnosed stage IE/IIE natural killer/T-cell lymphoma: a prospective multicentre study

Early-stage natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (NK/TCL) patients usually receive a combination of chemotherapy and radiotherapy, but the optimal treatment approach has not yet been established. This study aimed to investigate the efficacy and safety profile of a novel chemotherapy regimen and sandwiched radiotherapy in early-stage NK/TCL. Patients with newly diagnosed stage IE/IIE disease were eligible. Patients were initially treated with two courses of the GELAD regimen (gemcitabine 1·0 g/m² day 1, etoposide 60 mg/m² days 1-3, pegaspargase 2000 units/m² day 4, and dexamethasone 40 mg days 1-4), followed by intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT; 50-56 Gy in 25-28 fractions) and two additional courses of GELAD chemotherapy. A total of 52 patients were enrolled. The overall response rate and complete response rate per Lugano 2014 criteria were 94·2% and 92·3% respectively. With a median follow-up of 32 months, the estimated four-year overall survival rate and progression-free survival rate were 94·2% [95% confidence interval (CI), 83·2% to 93·1%] and 90·4% (95% CI, 78·4% to 95·9%) respectively. The most common adverse events were related to pegaspargase. Haematological toxicities were mild, with grade 3/4 neutropenia in 15·4% of patients. Our study provides a new approach with high activity and improved safety for the treatment of early-stage NK/TCL patients. This study was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as NCT02733458.

Conditional Survival and Annual Hazard Estimates of Classical Hodgkin Lymphoma

Background

In the present study, we have tried to understand how the level of risk and survival probability changes over time for patients with classical Hodgkin’s lymphoma by employing conditional survival and annual hazard as dynamic estimates of prognosis and survival.

Methods

This retrospective study reviewed the clinical data of patients with newly diagnosed classical Hodgkin’s lymphoma admitted to Peking University Cancer Hospital between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2017. Conditional survival and annual hazard rate were defined as the survival probability and yearly event rate, respectively, assuming that patients have survived for a defined time.

Results

A total of 384 patients were included (median age, 32 years; range, 6–77 years), of which 218 (56.8%) patients had early-stage disease. The median follow-up time was 41.3 months. The 5-year conditional overall survival (COS) rates remained favorable and showed an increase from 89% at treatment to 94% at year 5, while the 5-year conditional failure-free survival (CFFS) rate increased from 70% at treatment to 96% at year 5. The annual hazard of failure decreased from over 15% at diagnosis to less than 5% after 3 years. Early-stage patients had constantly lower annual estimates for hazard of death (range, 0–3.0%) and failure (range, 0–14.3%). However, the hazard of failure in advanced-stage patients decreased from 24.2% at diagnosis to below 8% after 3 years, whereas the hazard of death was always at relatively low levels. Patients with a high IPS risk score (≥3) had significantly lower COS and CFFS during the first 4 years. Patients who received the BEACOPP regimen had better 5-year COS and 5-year CFFS than those who received the ABVD regimen.

Conclusion

The survival probability increased and hazard of failure decreased over time.

NK-/T-cell lymphomas

Natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (NKTL) is a sub-type of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-related non-Hodgkin lymphomas common in Asia and Latin America but rare elsewhere. Its pathogenesis is complex and incompletely understood. Lymphoma cells are transformed from NK- or T-cells, sometimes both. EBV-infection and subsequent genetic alterations in infected cells are central to NKTL development. Hemophagocytic syndrome is a common complication. Accurate staging is important to predict outcomes but there is controversy which system is best. More than two-thirds of NKTL lympohmas are localized at diagnosis, are frequently treated with radiation therapy only and have 5-year survival of about 70 percent. Persons with advanced NKTLs receive radiation therapy synchronously or metachronously with diverse multi-drug chemotherapy typically including L-asparginase with 5-year survival of about 40 percent. Some persons with widespread NKTL receive chemotherapy only. There are few data on safety and efficacy of high-dose therapy and a haematopoietic cell autotransplant. Immune therapies, histone deacetylase (HDAC)-inhibitors and other drugs are in early clinical trials. There are few randomized controlled clinical trials in NKTLs and no therapy strategy is clearly best; more effective therapy(ies) are needed. Some consensus recommendations are not convincingly evidence-based. Mechanisms of multi-drug resistance are considered. We discuss these issues including recent advances in our understanding of and therapy of NKTLs.

Association of improved overall survival with decreased distant metastasis following asparaginase-based chemotherapy and radiotherapy for intermediate- and high-risk early-stage extranodal nasal-type NK/T-cell lymphoma: a CLCG study

BACKGROUND

This study evaluated the survival benefit of asparaginase (ASP)-based versus non-ASP-based chemotherapy combined with radiotherapy in a real-world cohort of patients with early-stage extranodal nasal-type natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKTCL).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We identified 376 patients who received combined radiotherapy with either ASP-based (ASP, platinum, and gemcitabine; n = 286) or non-ASP-based (platinum and gemcitabine; n = 90) regimens. The patients were stratified into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups using the early stage-adjusted nomogram-revised risk index. Overall survival (OS) and distant metastasis (DM)-free survival (DMFS) between the chemotherapy regimens were compared using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) and multivariable analyses.

RESULTS

ASP-based (versus non-ASP-based) regimens significantly improved 5-year OS (84.5% versus 73.2%, P = 0.021) and DMFS (84.4% versus 74.5%, P = 0.014) for intermediate- and high-risk patients, but not for low-risk patients in the setting of radiotherapy. Moreover, ASP-based regimens decreased DM, with a 5-year cumulative DM rate of 14.9% for ASP-based regimens compared with 25.1% (P = 0.014) for non-ASP-based regimens. The survival benefit of ASP-based chemotherapy and radiotherapy remained consistent after adjusting the confounding variables using IPTW and multivariate analyses; additional sensitivity analyses confirmed these results.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings provided support for ASP-based chemotherapy and radiotherapy as a first-line treatment strategy for intermediate- and high-risk early-stage ENKTCL.

First-line non-anthracycline-based chemotherapy for extranodal nasal-type NK/T-cell lymphoma: a retrospective analysis from the CLCG

The present study investigated the survival benefit of non-anthracycline (ANT)-based vs ANT-based regimens in a large-scale, real-world cohort of patients with extranodal natural killer (NK)/T-cell lymphoma, nasal type (ENKTCL). Within the China Lymphoma Collaborative Group (CLCG) database (2000-2015), we identified 2560 newly diagnosed patients who received chemotherapy with or without radiotherapy. Propensity score matching (PSM) and multivariable analyses were used to compare overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) between the 2 chemotherapy regimens. We explored the survival benefit of non-ANT-based regimens in patients with different treatments in early-stage disease and in risk-stratified subgroups. Non-ANT-based regimens significantly improved survivals compared with ANT-based regimens. The 5-year OS and PFS were 68.9% and 59.5% for non-ANT-based regimens compared with 57.5% and 44.5% for ANT-based regimens in the entire cohort. The clinical advantage of non-ANT-based regimens was substantial across the subgroups examined, regardless of stage and risk-stratified subgroup, and remained significant in early-stage patients who received radiotherapy. The survival benefits of non-ANT-based regimens were consistent after adjustment using multivariable and PSM analyses. These findings provide additional evidence supporting non-ANT-based regimens as a first-line treatment of patients with ENKTCL.

Stage-dependent conditional survival and failure hazard of non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma after intensity-modulated radiation therapy: Clinical implications for treatment strategies and surveillance

Purpose

Conditional survival (CS) and failure hazard estimations can provide important dynamic prognostic information for clinical decision‐making and surveillance counseling. The current study aimed to investigate the CS and dynamic failure hazard in non‐metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) treated with intensity‐modulated radiotherapy (IMRT).

Methods

Conditional overall survival (COS) and progression‐free survival (CPFS) estimates adjusted for age and gender against each AJCC 8th stage were calculated. Multivariable Cox regression (MCR) models were fitted in the entire population at baseline and subsequently separate MCR models were fitted in patients who have maintained event‐free time of 1 to 10 years to generate respective hazard ratio (HR). Annual hazard rates of death and progression over 10 years for each stage were also estimated.

Results

A total of 1993 patients were eligible for analysis. The estimated 5‐year OS and PFS for entire cohort were 79.0% and 70.7% at initial diagnosis. After 5 years of event‐free follow‐up, additional 5‐year COS and CPFS increased to 85.9% and 85.5%, respectively. Stage I/II maintained dramatically favorable CS and low hazard (< 5%) of death and progression over time. Relative to stage I/II, stage III manifested non‐significantly higher failure hazard for the first 3 years of survivorship and approached to similar level of stage I/II afterwards. Stage IVA presented most impressive improvement in terms of both COS (∆=9.8%) and CPFS (∆ = 16.8%) whereas still drastically inferior to that of stage I‐III across all conditional time points. After 4 years of follow‐up, progression hazard of stage IVA became relatively steady of approximate 6%.

Conclusions

Survival prospect of non‐metastatic NPC improves over years with distinct dynamic patterns across stages, providing important implications for personalized decision‐making in terms of both clinical management and surveillance counseling. Stage‐dependent and hazard‐adapted clinical management and surveillance are warranted.

Conditional survival and hazards of death for peripheral T-cell lymphomas

Typically, peripheral T-cell lymphoma (PTCLs) prognosis is estimated using overall survival before treatment. However, these estimates cannot show how prognosis evolves with the changing hazard rate over time. Patients (n = 650) with newly diagnosed PTCLs were enrolled retrospectively. After a median follow-up of 5.4 years, angioimmunoblastic T-cell lymphoma, peripheral T-cell lymphoma, not otherwise specified (PTCL, NOS) and NK/T cell lymphoma had initially lower 3-year conditional overall survival (COS3; i.e., the 3-year conditional overall survival was defined as the probability of surviving an additional 3 years) and higher hazards of death (26–44.3%). However, after 2 years, the COS3 increased and the death risk decreased over time, whereas anaplastic lymphoma kinase-positive anaplastic large-cell lymphoma constantly had a lower risk over time (0–19.5%). For patients with complete remission after initial treatment, prognosis varied by histological subtypes, with PTCL, NOS having a negative impact. Our data suggested that the risk stratification using the International Prognostic Index might not accurately predict the COS3 for survivors of PTCLs. The COS3 provided time-dependent prognostic information for PTCLs, representing a possible surrogate prognosis indicator for long-term survivors after systemic chemotherapy.

Extranodal Natural Killer/T-cell Lymphoma, Nasal Type: Diagnosis and Treatment

The aggressive lymphoma, extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma-nasal type, is strongly associated with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and is most common in Asia and in South and Central America. By contrast, incidence is low in the United States and Europe, where extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma represents only 0.2%-0.4% of all newly diagnosed non-Hodgkin lymphomas. At diagnosis, it is important to test for EBV DNA in plasma by polymerase chain reaction and to carry out positron emission tomography/computer tomography and magnetic resonance imaging of the nasopharynx. In stage I/II disease, radiotherapy is the most important treatment modality, but in high-risk stage I/II disease (stage II, age > 60 y, elevated lactate dehydrogenase, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance score ≥2, primary tumor invasion), it should be combined with chemotherapy. The most optimal responses are reached with nonmultidrug resistance-based therapy (eg, asparaginase- or platinum-based therapy). Therapeutic approaches consist of either platinum-based concurrent chemoradiotherapy or sequential chemoradiotherapy. The minimum dose of radiotherapy should be 50-56 Gy. Treatment of stage III/IV disease consists of 3 cycles of chemotherapy followed by autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation. Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation should only be considered in case of relapsed disease or after difficulty reaching complete remission. During treatment and follow-up, plasma EBV levels should be monitored as a marker of tumor load.

Development and validation of a web-based calculator to predict individualized conditional risk of site-specific recurrence in nasopharyngeal carcinoma: Analysis of 10,058 endemic cases

Background

Conditional survival (CS) provides dynamic prognostic estimates by considering the patients existing survival time. Since CS for endemic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is lacking, we aimed to assess the CS of endemic NPC and establish a web‐based calculator to predict individualized, conditional site‐specific recurrence risk.

Methods

Using an NPC‐specific database with a big‐data intelligence platform, 10,058 endemic patients with non‐metastatic stage I–IVA NPC receiving intensity‐modulated radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy between April 2009 and December 2015 were investigated. Crude CS estimates of conditional overall survival (COS), conditional disease‐free survival (CDFS), conditional locoregional relapse‐free survival (CLRRFS), conditional distant metastasis‐free survival (CDMFS), and conditional NPC‐specific survival (CNPC‐SS) were calculated. Covariate‐adjusted CS estimates were generated using inverse probability weighting. A prediction model was established using competing risk models and was externally validated with an independent, non‐metastatic stage I–IVA NPC cohort undergoing intensity‐modulated radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy (n = 601) at another institution.

Results

The median follow‐up of the primary cohort was 67.2 months. The 5‐year COS, CDFS, CLRRFS, CDMFS, and CNPC‐SS increased from 86.2%, 78.1%, 89.8%, 87.3%, and 87.6% at diagnosis to 87.3%, 87.7%, 94.4%, 96.0%, and 90.1%, respectively, for an existing survival time of 3 years since diagnosis. Differences in CS estimates between prognostic factor subgroups of each endpoint were noticeable at diagnosis but diminished with time, whereas an ever‐increasing disparity in CS between different age subgroups was observed over time. Notably, the prognoses of patients that were poor at diagnosis improved greatly as patients survived longer. For individualized CS predictions, we developed a web‐based model to estimate the conditional risk of local (C‐index, 0.656), regional (0.667), bone (0.742), lung (0.681), and liver (0.711) recurrence, which significantly outperformed the current staging system (P < 0.001). The performance of this web‐based model was further validated using an external validation cohort (median follow‐up, 61.3 months), with C‐indices of 0.672, 0.736, 0.754, 0.663, and 0.721, respectively.

Conclusions

We characterized the CS of endemic NPC in the largest cohort to date. Moreover, we established a web‐based calculator to predict the CS of site‐specific recurrence, which may help to tailor individualized, risk‐based, time‐adapted follow‐up strategies.

Progression-free survival at 24 months and subsequent survival of patients with extranodal NK/T-cell lymphoma: a China Lymphoma Collaborative Group (CLCG) study

Limited evidence supports the use of early endpoints to evaluate the success of initial treatment of extranodal NK/T-cell lymphoma (ENKTCL) in the modern era. We aim to analyze progression-free survival at 24 months (PFS24) and subsequent overall survival (OS) in a large-scale multicenter cohort of patients. 1790 patients were included from the China Lymphoma Collaborative Group (CLCG) database. Subsequent OS was defined from the time of PFS24 or progression within 24 months to death. OS was compared with age- and sex-matched general Chinese population using expected survival and standardized mortality ratio (SMR). Patients who did not achieve PFS24 had a median OS of 5.3 months after progression, with 5-year OS rate of 19.2% and the SMR of 71.4 (95% CI, 62.9-81.1). In contrast, 74% patients achieved PFS24, and the SMR after achieving PFS24 was 1.77 (95% CI, 1.34-2.34). The observed OS rate after PFS24 versus expected OS rate at 5 years was 92.2% versus 94.3%. Similarly, superior outcomes following PFS24 were observed in early-stage patients (5-year OS rate, 92.9%). Patients achieving PFS24 had excellent outcome, whereas patients exhibiting earlier progression had a poor survival. These marked differences suggest that PFS24 may be used for study design and risk stratification in ENKTCL.

Risk-based, response-adapted therapy for early-stage extranodal nasal-type NK/T-cell lymphoma in the modern chemotherapy era: A China Lymphoma Collaborative Group study

We aimed to determine the survival benefits of chemotherapy (CT) added to radiotherapy (RT) in different risk groups of patients with early-stage extranodal nasal-type NK/T-cell lymphoma (ENKTCL), and to investigate the risk of postponing RT based on induction CT responses. A total of 1360 patients who received RT with or without new-regimen CT from 20 institutions were retrospectively reviewed. The patients had received RT alone, RT followed by CT (RT + CT), or CT followed by RT (CT + RT). The patients were stratified into different risk groups using the nomogram-revised risk index (NRI). A comparative study was performed using propensity score-matched (PSM) analysis. Adding new-regimen CT to RT (vs RT alone) significantly improved overall survival (OS, 73.2% vs 60.9%, P < .001) and progression-free survival (PFS, 63.5% vs 54.2%, P < .001) for intermediate-risk/high-risk patients, but not for low-risk patients. For intermediate-risk/high-risk patients, RT + CT and CT + RT resulted in non-significantly different OS (77.7% vs 72.4%; P = .290) and PFS (67.1% vs 63.1%; P = .592). For patients with complete response (CR) after induction CT, initiation of RT within or beyond three cycles of CT resulted in similar OS (78.2% vs 81.7%, P = .915) and PFS (68.2% vs 69.9%, P = .519). For patients without CR, early RT resulted in better PFS (63.4% vs 47.6%, P = .019) than late RT. Risk-based, response-adapted therapy involving early RT combined with CT is a viable, effective strategy for intermediate-risk/high-risk early-stage patients with ENKTCL in the modern treatment era.