Development of a Prediction Model for the Management of Noncommunicable Diseases Among Older Syrian Refugees Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic in Lebanon

Legal residency status and its relationship with health indicators among Syrian refugees in Lebanon: a nested cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Failure to possess or renew legal residency permits increases the burden on a vulnerable refugee population. It risks detention or deportation, and hinders access to basic services including healthcare. This study aimed to examine the association between legal residency status and health of Syrian refugees living in Lebanon.

METHODS

Data were from two independent nested cross-sectional studies collected in 2022 through telephone surveys. In the first study, all Syrian refugees aged 50 years or older from households that received humanitarian assistance were invited to participate. The second included all adult Syrian refugees residing in a suburb of Beirut. The exposure was self-reported possession of a legal residency permit in Lebanon. The self-reported health outcomes were mental health status, COVID-19 vaccine uptake, and access to needed healthcare services. Separate logistic regression models examined the association between lacking a legal residency permit and each health outcome, adjusted for age, length of stay in Lebanon, education, employment, wealth index and receipt of assistance.

RESULTS

The first sample included 3357 participants (median age 58 years (IQR: 54-64), 47% female), of whom 85% reported lacking a legal residency permit. The second sample included 730 participants (median age 34 years (IQR: 26-42), 49% female), of whom 79% lacked a legal residency permit. In both studies, lacking a legal residency permit increased the odds of having poor mental health (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.46 (95% CI: 1.07 to 1.99); aOR: 1.62 (95% CI: 1.01 to 2.60)) and decreased the odds of COVID-19 vaccine uptake (aOR: 0.66 (95% CI: 0.54 to 0.80); aOR: 0.51 (95% CI: 0.32 to 0.81)). In the subsample who needed primary healthcare, lacking a legal residency permit decreased the odds of access to primary healthcare, which was statistically significant in the second study (aOR: 0.37 (95% CI: 0.17 to 0.84)).

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of Syrian refugees from these two samples reported lacking a legal residency permit in Lebanon. This was associated with poor mental health and lower uptake of COVID-19 vaccination, potentially originating from fear of detention or deportation. These findings call for urgent action to support access to legal documentation for refugees in Lebanon.

Health and well-being of older populations affected by humanitarian crises in low- and middle-income countries: a scoping review of peer-reviewed literature

BACKGROUND

The convergence of global demographic changes and rising humanitarian crises in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) has raised the number of affected older people (OP). These individuals face the challenges of aging and the adverse conditions of disasters, particularly pronounced in LMICs. This review aims to explore literature on the health and well-being of older populations during humanitarian crises in LMICs.

METHODS

This scoping review included primary studies on the health and well-being of older populations in humanitarian crises in LMIC. A search was conducted in five bibliographic databases last updated in 2023. A numerical summary and thematic analysis of study characteristics and themes were executed and findings were narratively synthesized.

RESULTS

A total of 84 eligible studies were included. The majority of studies were quantitative (n = 56), followed by qualitative (n = 22) and mixed-methods (n = 6). Most literature focuses on the high burden of mental health conditions and their determinants, such as depression, anxiety, and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). The second most common theme is physical health, discussing high levels of mortality, disability, some non-communicable diseases, and limited evidence on the poor nutritional status. OP lack access to routine healthcare due to cost barriers. The key gaps in the literature are in mental and psychosocial health, especially pertaining to vulnerabilities and risk factors, and to contextualized interventions. Physical health research is relatively narrow lacking a wider range of chronic diseases while no research was performed on communicable diseases other than COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings show the complex vulnerabilities of OP in humanitarian crises which exacerbate their physical, mental, and psychosocial health outcomes. There is a need to strengthen evidence on the effectiveness of interventions, and to investigate determinants of health, especially mental and psychosocial health, across different contexts. Research should also explore cross-cutting issues like gender, access to livelihoods, and equitable access to humanitarian assistance.

Predicting poor mental health among older Syrian refugees in Lebanon during the COVID-19 pandemic: a nested cross-sectional study

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic has worsened pre-existing vulnerabilities among older Syrian refugees in Lebanon, potentially impacting their mental health. The study aims to describe the evolution of poor mental health over time and to develop and internally validate a prediction model for poor mental health among older Syrian refugees in Lebanon.

METHODS

This prognostic study used cross-sectional data from a multiwave telephone survey in Lebanon. It was conducted among all Syrian refugees aged 50 years or older from households that received assistance from a humanitarian organisation. Data were collected between 22 September 2020 and 20 January 2021. Poor mental health was defined as a Mental Health Inventory-5 score of 60 or less. The predictors were identified using backwards stepwise logistic regression. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping. The calibration of the model was presented using the calibration slope (C-slope), and the discrimination was presented using the optimised adjusted C-statistic.

RESULTS

There were 3229 participants (median age=56 years (IQR=53-62)) and 47.5% were female. The prevalence of poor mental health was 76.7%. Predictors for poor mental health were younger age, food insecurity, water insecurity, lack of legal residency documentation, irregular employment, higher intensity of bodily pain, having debt and having chronic illnesses. The final model demonstrated good discriminative ability (C-statistic: 0.69 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.72)) and calibration (C-slope 0.93 (95%CI 0.82 to 1.07)).

CONCLUSION

Mental health predictors were related to basic needs, rights and financial barriers. These allow humanitarian organisations to identify high-risk individuals, organise interventions and address root causes to boost resilience and well-being among older Syrian refugees in Lebanon.

Prevalence, Awareness, Treatment, and Control of Type 2 Diabetes in South Korea (1998 to 2022): Nationwide Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes poses an increasing disease burden in South Korea. The development and management of type 2 diabetes are closely related to lifestyle and socioeconomic factors, which have undergone substantial changes over the past few decades, including during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate long-term trends in type 2 diabetes prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control. It also aimed to determine whether there were substantial alterations in the trends during the pandemic and whether these changes were more pronounced within specific demographic groups.

METHODS

This study examined the prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of type 2 diabetes in a representative sample of 139,786 South Koreans aged >30 years, using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and covering the period from 1998 to 2022. Weighted linear regression and binary logistic regression were performed to calculate weighted β coefficients or odds ratios. Stratified analyses were performed based on sex, age, region of residence, obesity status, educational background, household income, and smoking status. β (difference) was calculated to analyze the trend difference between the prepandemic period and the COVID-19 pandemic. To identify groups more susceptible to type 2 diabetes, we estimated interaction terms for each factor and calculated weighted odds ratios.

RESULTS

From 1998 to 2022, a consistent increase in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes was observed among South Koreans, with a notable rise to 15.61% (95% CI 14.83-16.38) during the pandemic. Awareness followed a U-shaped curve, bottoming out at 64.37% (95% CI 61.79-66.96) from 2013 to 2015 before increasing to 72.56% (95% CI 70.39-74.72) during the pandemic. Treatment also increased over time, peaking at 68.33% (95% CI 65.95-70.71) during the pandemic. Control among participants with diabetes showed no substantial change, maintaining a rate of 29.14% (95% CI 26.82-31.47) from 2020 to 2022, while control among treated participants improved to 30.68% (95% CI 27.88-33.48). During the pandemic, there was a steepening of the curves for awareness and treatment. However, while the slope of control among participants being treated increased, the slope of control among participants with diabetes showed no substantial change during the pandemic. Older populations and individuals with lower educational level exhibited less improvement in awareness and control trends than younger populations and more educated individuals. People with lower income experienced a deceleration in prevalence during the pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

Over the recent decade, there has been an increase in type 2 diabetes prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control. During the pandemic, a steeper increase in awareness, treatment, and control among participants being treated was observed. However, there were heterogeneous changes across different population groups, underscoring the need for targeted interventions to address disparities and improve diabetes management for susceptible populations.

By the numbers and in their own words: A mixed methods study of unmet needs and humanitarian inclusion of older Syrian refugees in Lebanon

Older people constitute an overlooked vulnerable population in humanitarian crises. Lebanon is a small country that hosts the largest number of refugees per capita in the world. With exacerbating socioeconomic conditions, exclusionary policies against refugees, and a fragmented humanitarian system, the status of older Syrian refugees (OSRs) requires special attention. This study aimed to explore OSRs' unmet needs, coping strategies, available humanitarian services, and some indicators of the humanitarian inclusion standards focusing on the shelter, health, nutrition and food security, and water, sanitation and hygiene sectors. We conducted a convergent mixed-methods study between December 2021 and March 2022 in the North and Bekaa, including a cross-sectional survey with 461 participants and 14 semi-structured interviews. Results show that OSRs lived in inappropriate shelters (cold, leaking rainwater), especially in informal tented settlements. High rent prices pushed refugee households with elderly to prioritize paying rent at the expense of other needs such as food and medication, particularly when food cash transfer is the sole source of income, jeopardizing food security and intake. Access to dignifying and accessible bathing facilities was compromised in ITSs with shared facilities. Substantial medical costs hindered OSRs access to healthcare such as surgeries. Due to the crisis, chronic medications are not always available in dispensaries for subsidized cost, pushing OSRs to non-compliance and selling food assistance to buy medications. Soaring fuel prices hindered OSRs access to heating and transportation to receive healthcare. No efforts were reported in collecting data on OSRs' needs, targeting them with information on services, or soliciting feedback for programming, especially in the absence of any age-tailored interventions. Findings shed light on the precarious living conditions of OSRs in Lebanon and add to the body of evidence documenting their invisibility to the humanitarian response. An age-inclusive response is needed through holistic, tailored, and sustainable interventions.

Regional Agriculture and Food Systems Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of the Near East and North Africa Region

The COVID-19 pandemic affected agri-food systems worldwide. However, while the impacts differed from one country/region to another, the scholarly literature seems to focus on developed countries in the Global North. Consequently, this review scrutinizes the literature on the pandemic's impacts in the Near East and North Africa (NENA) region. A search on the Web of Science in March 2023 generated 334 documents, of which 151 were eligible for inclusion in the systematic review. According to the bibliometric analysis, the most active nations are Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and Lebanon. In general, the coverage of studies is better in the Gulf region than in the less developed countries of North Africa and those suffering from wars (cf. Libya, Syria, and Yemen). Studies generally focus on crop production and the downstream food chain (cf. distribution and consumption). While the pandemic influenced every pillar of food security, this research concentrates on access and utilization. Meanwhile, the lion's share of the literature deals with the pandemic's socio-economic effects, especially those linked to food (in)security and health. The pandemic, which laid bare the agri-food system vulnerabilities, should be seized to foster the transition towards more resilient agri-food systems in the NENA region.

The determinants of sustained adherence to COVID-19 preventive measures among older Syrian refugees in Lebanon

INTRODUCTION

Lebanon has battled the COVID-19 pandemic in the midst of an economic crisis. The evolution of the pandemic and a fragile health system have meant that public health policy has had to rely heavily on non-pharmaceutical interventions for disease control. However, changes in disease dynamics, an unraveling economy, and pandemic fatigue have meant that disease control policies need to be updated.

METHODS

Using recent and timely data on older (50 years and above) Syrian refugees in Lebanon, this paper uses multivariate linear probability models to explore the determinants of adherence to two non-pharmaceutical COVID-19 prevention measures (wearing a mask and avoiding social gatherings) among this high-risk subgroup in a vulnerable population. Among respondents who report adhering to these measures, the paper also investigates the determinants of sustained adherence over a period of 6 months.

RESULTS

The findings suggest that no individual-level characteristics were robustly associated with mask wearing. For avoiding social gatherings, education was inversely associated with adherence to this preventive measure. Avoiding social gatherings was also significantly lower for residents of informal tented settlements (ITSs). Among initial adherents, and for both preventive practices, ITS dwellers were also significantly less likely to maintain adherence.

CONCLUSION

Identifying variables associated with adherence to non-pharmaceutical preventive practices, particularly for vulnerable groups, can help inform and refine interventions in the face of changing conditions. The material, physical, administrative and socio-economic constraints of life in an ITS suggest that avoiding social gatherings is hardly feasible. Yet despite the challenging conditions of ITSs, the indication to wear a mask is initially complied with, suggesting that tailoring policies to the limits and constrains of context can lead to successful outcomes even in very adverse settings.

Predictors and barriers to vaccination among older Syrian refugees in Lebanon: a cross-sectional analysis of a multi-wave longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Vaccination is important to prevent morbidity and mortality due to COVID-19 among older Syrian refugees. We aimed to elucidate the predictors of COVID-19 vaccine uptake among Syrian refugees aged 50 years or older in Lebanon and to understand their main reasons for not receiving the vaccine.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional analysis of a five-wave longitudinal study, conducted through telephone interviews between Sept 22, 2020, and March 14, 2022, in Lebanon. For this analysis, data were extracted from wave 3 (Jan 21-April 23, 2021), which included a question on vaccine safety and on whether participants intended to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, and wave 5 (Jan 14-March 14, 2022), which included questions on actual vaccine uptake. Syrian refugees aged 50 years or older were invited to participate from a list of households that received assistance from the Norwegian Refugee Council, a humanitarian non-governmental organisation. The outcome was self-reported COVID-19 vaccination status. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify predictors of vaccination uptake. Validation was completed internally with bootstrapping methods.

FINDINGS

2906 participants completed both wave 3 and 5; the median age was 58 (IQR 55-64) years and 1538 (52·9%) were male. 1235 (42·5%) of 2906 participants had received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. The main reasons for not receiving the first dose included being afraid of its side-effects (670 [40·1%] of 1671) or not wanting the vaccine (637 [38·1%] of 1671). 806 (27·7%) of 2906 participants received the second dose of the vaccine and 26 (0·9%) of 2906 received the third dose. The main reason for not receiving the second (288 [67·1%] of 429) or third dose (573 [73·5%] of 780) was waiting for a text message for an appointment. Predictors of receiving at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine included younger age (odds ratio 0·97; 95% CI 0·96-0·98), being male (1·39; 1·19-1·62), living inside informal tented settlements (1·44; 1·24-1·66), having elementary (1·23; 1·03-1·48) and preparatory education or above (1·15; 0·95-1·40), and having a pre-existing intention to receive the vaccine (1·29; 1·10-1·50). After adjusting for optimisation, the final model, which includes these five predictors of receiving at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, showed moderate discrimination (C-statistic 0·605; 95% CI 0·584-0·624) and good calibration (c-slope 0·912; 95% CI 0·758-1·079).

INTERPRETATION

There is an ongoing need to address COVID-19 vaccine uptake among older Syrian refugees by improving deployment planning and raising awareness about the importance of vaccination.

FUNDING

ELRHA's Research for Health in Humanitarian Crisis Programme.

Prevalence of Malnutrition among Syrian Refugee Children from Lebanon

Today, the situation of Syrian refugees is one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. To estimate the prevalence of malnutrition among pediatric populations of Syrian refugees, 176 Syrian refugee children, with stays of more than two years at three refugee camps (Zalhé, Deddeh, and Kfar Jouz) or from the town of Yohmor, Lebanon were authorized by their parents to participate in this study. The children were anthropometrically evaluated and height-for-age Z-score (HAZ), weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ), and weight-for-height (WHZ) Z-scores were obtained and compared with WHO standards. Furthermore, mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) was analyzed for screening children 6-59 months old. According to the anthropometric measures, no child met the criteria for chronic, global, acute malnutrition (CGAM), severe acute malnutrition (SAM), or moderate acute malnutrition (MAM). In the total sample, 49.4% of participants were moderately thin, with girls presenting a higher prevalence of thinness than that of boys. Thus, the absence of high rates of malnutrition was verified despite the magnitude of the Syrian refugee's problem. The data provided by this study identify the need to carry out further research to assess anthropometric growth and nutritional status among long-staying refugee children in order to prevent any health issues that may arise in the future.