Use of the Kidney Failure Risk Equation to Determine the Risk of Progression to End-stage Renal Disease in Children With Chronic Kidney Disease

Longitudinal progression trajectory of estimated glomerular filtration rate in children with chronic kidney disease: results from the KNOW-Ped CKD (KoreaN cohort study for Outcomes in patients With Pediatric Chronic Kidney Disease)

BACKGROUND

The natural course of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression in children varies according to their underlying conditions. This study aims to identify different patterns of subsequent decline in kidney function and investigate factors associated with different patterns of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) trajectories.

METHODS

We analyzed data from the KNOW-Ped CKD (KoreaN cohort study for Outcomes in patients With Pediatric Chronic Kidney Disease), which is a longitudinal, prospective cohort study. A latent class linear mixed model was applied to identify the trajectory groups.

RESULTS

In a total of 287 patients, the median baseline eGFR (mL/min/1.73 m2) was 63.3, and the median age was 11.5 years. The eGFR decline rate was -1.54 during a 6.0-year follow-up. The eGFR trajectory over time was classified into four groups. Classes 1 (n = 103) and 2 (n = 11) had a slightly reduced eGFR at enrollment with a stable trend (ΔeGFR, -0.2/year) and a rapid decline eGFR over time (ΔeGFR, -10.5/year), respectively. Class 3 had a normal eGFR (n = 16), and class 4 had a moderately reduced eGFR (n = 157); both these chasses showed a linear decline in eGFR over time (ΔeGFR, -4.1 and -2.4/year). In comparison with classes 1 and 2, after adjusting for age, causes of primary renal disease, and baseline eGFR, nephrotic-range proteinuria was associated with a rapid decline in eGFR (odds ratio, 8.13).

CONCLUSION

We identified four clinically relevant subgroups of kidney function trajectories in children with CKD. Most children showed a linear decline in eGFR; however, there are different patterns of eGFR trajectories.

Biomarker Panels for Discriminating Risk of CKD Progression in Children

Key Points

Background

We have previously studied biomarkers of tubular health (EGF), injury (kidney injury molecule-1 [KIM-1]), dysfunction (α-1 microglobulin), and inflammation (TNF receptor-1, TNF receptor-2, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, YKL-40, and soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor) and demonstrated that plasma KIM-1, TNF receptor-1, TNF receptor-2, urine KIM-1, EGF, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, and urine α-1 microglobulin are each independently associated with CKD progression in children. In this study, we used bootstrapped survival trees to identify a combination of biomarkers to predict CKD progression in children.

Methods

The Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKiD) Cohort Study prospectively enrolled children aged 6 months to 16 years with an eGFR of 30–90 ml/min per 1.73 m2. We measured biomarkers in stored plasma and urine collected 5 months after study enrollment. The primary outcome of CKD progression was a composite of 50% eGFR decline or kidney failure. We constructed a regression tree–based model for predicting the time to the composite event, using a panel of clinically relevant biomarkers with empirically derived thresholds, in addition to conventional risk factors.

Results

Of the 599 children included, the median age was 12 years (interquartile range [IQR], 8–15), 371 (62%) were male, baseline urine protein-creatinine ratio was 0.33 (IQR, 0.12–0.95) mg/mg, and baseline eGFR was 53 (IQR, 40–66) ml/min per 1.73 m2. Overall, 205 children (34%) reached the primary outcome of CKD progression. A single regression tree–based model using the most informative predictors with data-driven biomarker thresholds suggested a final set of four prognosis groups. In the final model, urine albumin/creatinine was the variable with the highest importance and along with urine EGF/creatinine identified the highest risk group of 24 children, 100% of whom developed CKD progression at a median time of 1.3 years (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0 to 1.7). When the regression tree–derived risk group classifications were added to prediction models including the clinical risk factors, the C-statistic increased from 0.76 (95% CI, 0.71 to 0.80) to 0.85 (95% CI, 0.81 to 0.88).

Conclusions

Using regression tree–based methods, we identified a biomarker panel of urine albumin/creatinine, urine EGF/creatinine, plasma KIM-1, and eGFR, which significantly improved discrimination for CKD progression.

Identifying experiences of supportive care of children and young people affected by kidney failure: A qualitative systematic review

BACKGROUND

Children and young people affected by kidney failure experience complexities in their care. Little is known about the unique needs of this young patient population group living with a long-term condition.

OBJECTIVE

A meta-aggregation of all qualitative studies was conducted to identify experiences of supportive care among children and young people living with kidney failure.

METHODS

A systematic review of qualitative studies was conducted following the Joanna Briggs Institute meta-aggregation method. This review has been reported according to the PRISMA statement guidelines. Six electronic databases (CINAHL, Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, Proquest, PsycINFO, and Scopus) were comprehensively searched by an expert systematic review librarian using keywords and subject headings, from inception to September 2022. All studies were accessed using a predetermined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Methodological quality assessment and data extraction performed. Qualitative findings accompanied by illustrative quotes from included studies were extracted and grouped into categories which created the overall synthesised findings.

RESULTS

A total of 34 studies were included in this review representing a total of 613 children and young people affected by kidney failure. There was a total of 190 findings which created 13 categories representing experiences of supportive care. The meta-aggregation developed five synthesised findings namely: 'physical needs', 'information and technology', 'treatment and healthcare', 'social needs' and 'psychological impacts'.

CONCLUSION

This systematic review identified that children and young people affected by kidney failure can experience a range of unmet supportive care needs in routine clinical services. Kidney failure impacted children and young people's self-identify, social and peer networks, introduced daily practical needs because of inherent physical and psychological burden due to the failure and associated treatments. Despite improvements in the medical management of kidney failure in children and young people, further attention is needed to optimise supported self-management in this young patient group.

Predictive models in chronic kidney disease: essential tools in clinical practice

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The integration of risk prediction in managing chronic kidney disease (CKD) is universally considered a key point of routine clinical practice to guide time-sensitive choices, such as dialysis access planning or counseling on kidney transplant options. Several prognostic models have been developed and validated to provide individualized evaluation of kidney failure risk in CKD patients. This review aims to analyze the current evidence on existing predictive models and evaluate the different advantages and disadvantages of these tools.

RECENT FINDINGS

Since Tangri et al. introduced the Kidney Failure Risk Equation in 2011, the nephrological scientific community focused its interest in enhancing available algorithms and finding new prognostic equations. Although current models can predict kidney failure with high discrimination, different questions remain unsolved. Thus, this field is open to new possibilities and discoveries.

SUMMARY

Accurately informing patients of their prognoses can result in tailored therapy with important clinical and psychological implications. Over the last 5 years, the number of disease-modifying therapeutic options has considerably increased, providing possibilities to not only prevent the kidney failure onset in patients with advanced CKD but also delay progression from early stages in at-risk individuals.

Real world evaluation of kidney failure risk equations in predicting progression from chronic kidney disease to kidney failure in an Australian cohort

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease progression to kidney failure is diverse, and progression may be different according to genetic aspects and settings of care. We aimed to describe kidney failure risk equation prognostic accuracy in an Australian population.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was undertaken in a public hospital community-based chronic kidney disease service in Brisbane, Australia, which included a cohort of 406 adult patients with chronic kidney disease Stages 3-4 followed up over 5 years (1/1/13-1/1/18). Risk of progression to kidney failure at baseline using Kidney Failure Risk Equation models with three (eGFR/age/sex), four (add urinary-ACR) and eight variables (add serum-albumin/phosphate/bicarbonate/calcium) at 5 and 2 years were compared to actual patient outcomes.

RESULTS

Of 406 patients followed up over 5 years, 71 (17.5%) developed kidney failure, while 112 died before reaching kidney failure. The overall mean difference between observed and predicted risk was 0.51% (p = 0.659), 0.93% (p = 0.602), and - 0.03% (p = 0.967) for the three-, four- and eight-variable models, respectively. There was small improvement in the receiver operating characteristic-area under the curve from three-variable to four-variable models: 0.888 (95%CI = 0.819-0.957) versus 0.916 (95%CI = 0.847-0.985). The eight-variable model showed marginal receiver operating characteristic-area under the curve improvement: 0.916 (95%CI = 0.847-0.985) versus 0.922 (95%CI = 0.853-0.991). The results were similar in predicting 2 year risk of kidney failure.

CONCLUSIONS

The kidney failure risk equation accurately predicted progression to kidney failure in an Australian chronic kidney disease population. Younger age, male sex, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, higher albuminuria, diabetes mellitus, tobacco smoking and non-Caucasian ethnicity were associated with increased risk of kidney failure. Cause-specific cumulative incidence function for progression to kidney failure or death, stratified by chronic kidney disease stage, demonstrated differences within different chronic kidney disease stages, highlighting the interaction between comorbidity and outcome.

Preparing for kidney replacement therapy in pediatric advanced CKD: a review of literature and defining a multi-disciplinary clinical approach to patient-caregiver education

Pediatric patients with progressive chronic kidney disease (CKD) approaching kidney replacement therapy (KRT) make up a small population but carry significant morbidity and mortality. Patients and caregivers require comprehensive kidney failure education to ensure a smooth start to KRT. Choice of KRT modality can be influenced by medical comorbidities, patient/caregiver comprehension, and comfort with a particular modality, social and economic factors, and/or implicit bias of the health care team. As KRT modality can influence morbidity, mortality, and quality of life, we created a pediatric advanced CKD clinic to provide comprehensive KRT education and to promote informed decision-making for our advanced CKD patients and their caregivers.

Predicting pediatric kidney disease progression-are 3 variables all you need?

Accurate estimation of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression risk is vital for clinical decision-making. Existing risk equations lack validation in pediatric CKD populations. Ng et al. developed new risk equations using the CKD in Children and European Study Consortium for Chronic Kidney Disorders Affecting Pediatric Patients cohorts. The elementary model, incorporating estimated glomerular filtration rate, urine protein-creatinine ratio, and diagnosis, exhibited excellent discrimination and calibration at external validation. External validation of enriched models is pending. The equations have the potential to aid pediatric CKD centers in patient counseling and care planning.

Identifying key genes for diabetic kidney disease by bioinformatics analysis

BACKGROUND

There are no reliable molecular targets for early diagnosis and effective treatment in the clinical management of diabetic kidney disease (DKD). To identify novel gene factors underlying the progression of DKD.

METHODS

The public transcriptomic datasets of the alloxan-induced DKD model and the streptozotocin-induced DKD model were retrieved to perform an integrative bioinformatic analysis of differentially expressed genes (DEGs) shared by two experimental animal models. The dominant biological processes and pathways associated with DEGs were identified through enrichment analysis. The expression changes of the key DEGs were validated in the classic db/db DKD mouse model.

RESULTS

The downregulated and upregulated genes in DKD models were uncovered from GSE139317 and GSE131221 microarray datasets. Enrichment analysis revealed that metabolic process, extracellular exosomes, and hydrolase activity are shared biological processes and molecular activity is altered in the DEGs. Importantly, Hmgcs2, angptl4, and Slco1a1 displayed a consistent expression pattern across the two DKD models. In the classic db/db DKD mice, Hmgcs2 and angptl4 were also found to be upregulated while Slco1a1 was downregulated in comparison to the control animals.

CONCLUSIONS

In summary, we identified the common biological processes and molecular activity being altered in two DKD experimental models, as well as the novel gene factors (Hmgcs2, Angptl4, and Slco1a1) which may be implicated in DKD. Future works are warranted to decipher the biological role of these genes in the pathogenesis of DKD.

Early diagnosis of chronic kidney disease in patients with diabetes in France: multidisciplinary expert opinion, prevention value and practical recommendations

Diabetes is the leading cause of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), accounting for approximately 50% of patients starting dialysis. However, the management of these patients at the stage of chronic kidney disease (CKD) remains poor, with fragmented care pathways among healthcare professionals (HCPs). Diagnosis of CKD and most of its complications is based on laboratory evidence. This article provides an overview of critical laboratory evidence of CKD and their limitations, such as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR), Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE), and serum potassium. eGFR is estimated using the CKD-EPI 2009 formula, more relevant in Europe, from the calibrated dosage of plasma creatinine. The estimation formula and the diagnostic thresholds have been the subject of recent controversies. Recent guidelines emphasized the combined equation using both creatinine and cystatin for improved estimation of GFR. UACR on a spot urine sample is a simple method that replaces the collection of 24-hour urine. Albuminuria is the preferred test because of increased sensitivity but proteinuria may be appropriate in some settings as an alternative or in addition to albuminuria testing. KFRE is a new tool to estimate the risk of progression to ESKD. This score is now well validated and may improve the nephrology referral strategy. Plasma or serum potassium is an important parameter to monitor in patients with CKD, especially those on renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) inhibitors or diuretics. Pre-analytical conditions are essential to exclude factitious hyperkalemia. The current concept is to correct hyperkalemia using pharmacological approaches, resins or diuretics to be able to maintain RAAS blockers at the recommended dose and discontinue them at last resort. This paper also suggests expert recommendations to optimize the healthcare pathway and the roles and interactions of the HCPs involved in managing CKD in patients with diabetes.

Access to kidney transplantation among pediatric candidates with prior solid organ transplants in the United States

BACKGROUND

Pediatric kidney transplant candidates require timely access to transplant to optimize growth and neurodevelopmental outcomes. We studied access to transplant for pediatric candidates with prior organ transplants.

METHODS

We used US registry data to identify pediatric kidney transplant candidates added to the waiting list 2015-2019 and used competing risk regression to study the association between prior transplant status and probability of receiving a kidney transplant, treating wait-list removal and death as competing events.

RESULTS

Of 4962 pediatric kidney transplant candidates included, 89% had no prior transplant and 11% had received a prior organ transplant (kidney 87%, liver 5%, heart 5%). Prior transplant recipients were older at listing (median 15 vs. 12 years) and more likely to have PRA≥98% (22% vs. 0.3%) (both p < .001). There was no significant difference in the proportion of candidates from each group who were preemptively wait-listed. Unadjusted competing risk regression showed a lower risk of kidney transplant after wait-listing among candidates with prior organ transplant (HR 0.52, 95%CI 0.47-0.59, p < .001). This association remained significant after adjusting for candidate characteristics (HR 0.73, 95%CI 0.63-0.83, p < .001). Among deceased donor kidney recipients, median KDPI was similar between groups, but recipients with prior transplants were more likely to receive kidneys from donors with hypertension (4% vs. 1%, p = .01) and donors after cardiac death (11% vs. 4%, p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Pediatric kidney transplant candidates with prior organ transplants have reduced access to transplant after wait-listing. Allocation system changes are needed to improve timely access to transplant for this vulnerable group.

Diabetic kidney disease in children and adolescents: an update

Diabetic kidney disease (DKD), previously encountered predominantly in adult patients, is rapidly gaining center stage as a childhood morbidity and one that pediatric nephrologists are likely to encounter with increasing frequency. This is in large part due to the obesity epidemic and the consequent rise in type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents, as well as the more aggressive diabetes phenotype in today's youth with more rapid β-cell decline and faster development and progression of diabetes-related complications along with lower responsiveness to the treatments used in adults. DKD, an end-organ complication of diabetes, is at the very least a marker of, and more likely a predisposing factor for, the development of adverse cardiovascular outcomes and premature mortality in children with diabetes. On an optimistic note, several new therapeutic approaches are now available for the management of diabetes in adults, such as GLP1 receptor agonists, SGLT2 inhibitors, and DPP4 inhibitors, that have also been shown to have a favorable impact on cardiorenal outcomes. Also promising is the success of very low-energy diets in inducing remission of diabetes in adults. However, the addition of these pharmacological and dietary approaches to the management toolbox of diabetes and DKD in children and adolescents awaits thorough assessment of their safety and efficacy in this population. This review outlines the scope of diabetes and DKD, and new developments that may favorably impact the management of children and young adults with diabetes and DKD.

Retinopathy and Risk of Kidney Disease in Persons With Diabetes

Rationale & Objective

Retinopathy and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are typically considered microvascular complications of diabetes, and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases are considered macrovascular complications; however, all may share common pathological mechanisms. This study quantified the association of retinopathy with risk of kidney disease and compared with the association with cardiovascular disease in persons with diabetes.

Study Design

Retrospective cohort study.

Setting & Participants

1,759 participants in the ARIC study who had diabetes at visit 4 and underwent retinal examination at visit 3.

Exposure

Retinopathy.

Outcome

Prevalent CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] < 60 mL/min/1.73 m²), prevalent albuminuria (urinary albumin-creatinine ratio [UACR] > 30 mg/g), incident CKD, incident end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), incident coronary heart disease (CHD), and incident stroke.

Analytical Approach

The cross-sectional association of retinopathy with prevalent CKD and albuminuria was assessed by logistic regression. The associations between retinopathy, incident CKD, incident ESKD, incident CHD, and incident stroke were examined using Cox proportional hazards models. Seemingly unrelated regression was used to compare the strength of association between retinopathy and outcomes.

Results

During the median follow-up period of 14.2 years, 723 participants developed CKD, and there were 109 ESKD events, 399 CHD events, and 196 stroke events. Compared with the participants without retinopathy, participants with retinopathy were more likely to have reduced eGFR (OR, 1.56 [95% CI, 1.09-2.23]) and UACR > 30 mg/g (OR, 1.61 [95% CI, 1.24-2.10]). Retinopathy was associated with risk of incident CKD (HR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.02-1.46]), ESKD (HR, 1.69 [95% CI, 1.11-2.58]), CHD (HR, 1.46 [95% CI, 1.15-1.84]), and stroke (HR, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.03-1.97]). A stronger relationship was found between retinopathy and CHD when compared with retinopathy and CKD (P = 0.03); all other associations were similar.

Limitations

Retinal examination and kidney measurements were taken at different visits.

Conclusions

The presence of retinopathy was associated with higher prevalence of kidney disease and higher risk of incident CKD, ESKD, and CHD. These results may suggest that a similar mechanism underlies the development of retinopathy and other adverse outcomes in diabetes.

Impact of Using Risk-Based Stratification on Referral of Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease From Primary Care to Specialist Care in the United Kingdom

Introduction

The externally validated Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) for predicting risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) has been developed, but its potential impact in a population on referrals for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) from primary to specialty nephrology care is not known.

Methods

A cross-sectional population-based study of individuals in United Kingdom primary care registered in The Health Improvement Network database was conducted. National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) 2014 CKD guidelines versus the 4-variable KFRE set at a >3% risk of ESRD at 5 years were applied to patients identified with CKD stage 3-5 between January 1, 2016, and March 31, 2017.

Results

In all, 39,476 (36.6%) of 107,962 adults with CKD stage 3-5 had a urine albumin:creatinine ratio (ACR) available and entered into the primary analysis. Of that, 7566 (19.2%) patients fulfilled NICE criteria for referral, 2386 (31.5%) of whom had a ≤3% 5-year risk of ESRD. Also 8663 (21.9%) patients had a >3% 5-year risk of ESRD, 3483 (40.2%) of whom did not fulfill NICE criteria; this represents 8.8% of the primary population. By using the KFRE threshold rather than NICE criteria for referral, 5869 patients (14.9% of the primary analysis population) would have been reallocated between primary and specialist care. Imputational analysis was used for missing ACR measurements and showed similar results.

Conclusions

A risk-based referral approach would lead to a substantial reallocation of patients between primary care and specialist nephrology care with only a small increase in numbers eligible, ensuring those at higher risk of progression are identified.

Albuminuria, proteinuria, and dipsticks: novel relationships and utility in risk prediction

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Albuminuria is associated with progression of kidney disease and is the accepted gold standard for screening, staging, and prognostication of chronic kidney disease. This review focuses on current literature that has explored applications of albuminuria as a surrogate outcome, variable used in kidney failure risk prediction for novel populations, and variable that may be predicted by other proteinuria measures.

RECENT FINDINGS

Change in albuminuria shows promise as a surrogate outcome for kidney failure, which may have major implications for trial design and conduct. The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) has been validated extensively to date and has now been applied to pediatric patients with kidney disease, advanced age, different causes of kidney disease, various countries, and those with prior kidney transplants. As albumin-to-creatinine ratios (ACRs) are not always available to clinicians and researchers, two recent studies have independently developed equations to estimate ACR from other proteinuria measures.

SUMMARY

The utility of albuminuria and the KFRE continues to grow in novel populations. With the ability to convert more widely available (and inexpensive) proteinuria measures to ACR estimates, the prospect of incorporating kidney failure risk prediction into routine care within economically challenged healthcare jurisdictions may finally be realized.

Prediction of kidney failure in children with chronic kidney disease and obstructive uropathy

BACKGROUND

Obstructive uropathy (OU) is a leading cause of pediatric kidney injury. Accurate prediction of kidney disease progression may improve clinical outcomes. We aimed to examine discrimination and accuracy of a validated kidney failure risk equation (KFRE), previously developed in adults, in children with OU.

METHODS

We identified 118 children with OU and an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 in the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children study, a national, longitudinal, observational cohort. Each patient's 5-year risk of kidney failure was estimated using baseline data and published parameters for the 4- and 8-variable KFREs. Discriminative ability of the KFRE was estimated using the C statistic for time-to-event analysis. Sensitivity and specificity were evaluated across varying risk thresholds.

RESULTS

Among the 118 children, 100 (85%) were boys, with median baseline age of 10 years (interquartile range, 6-14). Median eGFR was 42 mL/min/1.73m 2 (32-53), with a median follow-up duration of 4.5 years (2.7-7.2); 23 patients (19.5%) developed kidney failure within 5 years. The 4-variable KFRE discriminated kidney failure risk with a C statistic of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.68-0.82). A 4-variable risk threshold of ≥ 30% yielded 82.6% sensitivity and 75.0% specificity. Results were similar using the 8-variable KFRE.

CONCLUSIONS

In children with OU, the KFRE discriminated the 5-year risk of kidney failure at C statistic values lower than previously published in adults but comparable with suboptimal values reported in the overall CKiD population. The 8-variable equation did not improve model discrimination or accuracy, suggesting the need for continued research into additional, disease-specific markers.

A novel drug response score more accurately predicts renoprotective drug effects than existing renal risk scores

BACKGROUND

Risk factor-based equations are used to predict risk of kidney disease progression in patients with type 2 diabetes order to guide treatment decisions. It is, however, unknown whether these models can also be used to predict the effects of drugs on clinical outcomes.

METHODS

The previously developed Parameter Response Efficacy (PRE) score, which integrates multiple short-term drug effects, was first compared with the existing risk scores, Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) and The Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) renal risk score, in its performance to predict end-stage renal disease (ESRD; KFRE) and doubling of serum creatinine or ESRD (ADVANCE). Second, changes in the risk scores were compared after 6 months' treatment to predict the long-term effects of losartan on these renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease.

RESULTS

The KFRE, ADVANCE and PRE scores showed similarly good performance in predicting renal risk. However, for prediction of the effect of losartan, the KFRE risk score predicted a relative risk change in the occurrence of ESRD of 3.1% [95% confidence interval (CI) -5 to 12], whereas the observed risk change was -28.8% (95% CI -42.0 to -11.5). For the composite endpoint of doubling of serum creatinine or ESRD, the ADVANCE score predicted a risk change of -12.4% (95% CI -17 to -7), which underestimated the observed risk change -21.8% (95% CI -34 to -6). The PRE score predicted renal risk changes that were close to the observed risk changes with losartan treatment [-24.0% (95% CI -30 to -17) and -22.6% (95% CI -23 to -16) for ESRD and the composite renal outcome, respectively].

CONCLUSION

A drug response score such as the PRE score may assist in improving clinical decision making and implement precision medicine strategies.

Systematic integrated analysis of genetic and epigenetic variation in diabetic kidney disease

Poor metabolic control and host genetic predisposition are critical for diabetic kidney disease (DKD) development. The epigenome integrates information from sequence variations and metabolic alterations. Here, we performed a genome-wide methylome association analysis in 500 subjects with DKD from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort for DKD phenotypes, including glycemic control, albuminuria, kidney function, and kidney function decline. We show distinct methylation patterns associated with each phenotype. We define methylation variations that are associated with underlying nucleotide variations (methylation quantitative trait loci) and show that underlying genetic variations are important drivers of methylation changes. We implemented Bayesian multitrait colocalization analysis (moloc) and summary data-based Mendelian randomization to systematically annotate genomic regions that show association with kidney function, methylation, and gene expression. We prioritized 40 loci, where methylation and gene-expression changes likely mediate the genotype effect on kidney disease development. Functional annotation suggested the role of inflammation, specifically, apoptotic cell clearance and complement activation in kidney disease development. Our study defines methylation changes associated with DKD phenotypes, the key role of underlying genetic variations driving methylation variations, and prioritizes methylome and gene-expression changes that likely mediate the genotype effect on kidney disease pathogenesis.

The Kidney Failure Risk Equation for Prediction of Allograft Loss in Kidney Transplant Recipients

Rationale & Objective

The Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) is a simple widely validated prediction model using age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and urinary albumin-creatinine ratio to predict the risk for end-stage kidney disease. Data are limited for its applicability to kidney transplant recipients.

Study Design

Validation study of the KFRE as a post hoc analysis of the Folic Acid for Vascular Outcomes Reduction in Transplantation (FAVORIT) Trial.

Setting & Participants

Adult kidney transplant recipients with functioning kidney allografts at least 6 months posttransplantation from 30 centers in the United States, Canada, and Brazil. Participants with estimated glomerular filtration rates < 60 mL/min/1.73 m² at study entry were included.

Predictor

2- and 5-year kidney failure risk predicted by the KFRE using variables at study entry.

Outcome

Graft loss, defined by initiation of dialysis.

Analytical Approach

Discrimination of the KFRE was assessed using C statistics; calibration was assessed by plotting predicted risk against observed cumulative incidence of graft loss.

Results

2,889 participants were included. Within 2 years, 98 participants developed graft loss, 107 participants died with a functioning graft, and 129 participants were lost to follow-up, and by 5 years, 252 had developed graft loss, 265 died with a functioning graft, and 1,543 were lost to follow-up. The KFRE demonstrated accurate calibration and discrimination (C statistic, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.81-0.88] at 2 years and 0.81 [95% CI, 0.78-0.84] at 5 years); performance was similar regardless of donor type (living vs deceased) and graft vintage, with the noted exception of poorer calibration for graft vintage less than 2 years.

Limitations

Unavailable cause of graft loss.

Conclusions

The KFRE accurately predicted the risk for graft loss among adult kidney transplant recipients with graft vintage longer than 2 years and may be a useful prognostic tool for nephrologists caring for kidney transplant recipients.

Longitudinal kidney injury biomarker trajectories in children with obstructive uropathy

BACKGROUND

Congenital obstructive uropathy (OU) is a leading cause of pediatric kidney failure, representing a unique mechanism of injury, in part from renal tubular stretch and ischemia. Tubular injury biomarkers have potential to improve OU-specific risk stratification.

METHODS

Patients with OU were identified in the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKiD) study. "Cases" were defined as individuals receiving any kidney replacement therapy (KRT), while "controls" were age- and time-on-study matched and KRT free at last study visit. Urine and plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), interleukin 18 (IL-18), and liver-type fatty acid-binding protein (L-FABP) levels were measured at enrollment and annually and compared between cases and controls. Urine values were normalized to urine creatinine.

RESULTS

In total, 22 cases and 22 controls were identified, with median (interquartile range) ages of 10.5 (9.0-13.0) and 15.9 (13.9-16.9) years at baseline and outcome, respectively. At enrollment there were no differences noted between cases and controls for any urine (u) or plasma (p) biomarker measured. However, the mean pNGAL and uL-FABP/creatinine increased throughout the study period in cases (15.38 ng/ml per year and 0.20 ng/ml per mg/dl per year, respectively, p = 0.01 for both) but remained stable in controls. This remained constant after controlling for baseline glomerular filtration rate (GFR).

CONCLUSIONS

In children with OU, pNGAL and uL-FABP levels increased over the 5 years preceding KRT; independent of baseline GFR. Future studies are necessary to identify optimal cutoff values and to determine if these markers outperform current clinical predictors.

Should we abandon GFR in the decision to initiate chronic dialysis?

The best time to start chronic dialysis during the course of CKD stage 5 is controversial. The first randomised control trial of dialysis initiation either in early or late CKD stage 5 in adults (IDEAL study), and 3 studies from the two largest paediatric registries, the U.S. Renal Data System (USRDS) and the European Society of Paediatric Nephrology (ESPN) Registry, have now provided us with evidence to guide us in this important decision-making process. The message 'no benefit from early start of dialysis' is the conclusion from all four studies. However, what are the limitations of these studies? Can GFR be assessed at CKD stages 4 and 5? What are the factors used to assess the benefit of early or late start? These issues are discussed in this review.

Development of prognostic model for patients at CKD stage 3a and 3b in South Central China using computational intelligence

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage 3 was divided into two subgroups by eGFR (45 mL/ min 1.73 m²). There is difference in prevalence of CKD, racial differences, economic development, genetic, and environmental backgrounds between China and Western countries.

METHODS

We used a computational intelligence model (CKD stage 3 Modeling, CSM) to distinguish CKD stage 3 with CKD stage 3a/3b by data distribution rules, pearson correlation coefficient (PCC), spearman correlation (SCC) analysis, logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and neural network (Nnet) to develop Prognostic Model for patients with CKD stage 3a/3b in South Central China. Furthermore, we used RF to discover risk factors of progression of CKD stage 3a and 3b to CKD stage 5. 1090 cases of CKD stage 3 patients in Xiangya Hospital were collected. Among them, 455 patients progressed to CKD stage 5 in a median follow-up of 4 years (IQR 4.295, 4.489).

RESULTS

We found that the common risk factors for progression of CKD stage 3a/3b to CKD stage 5 included albumin, creatinine, total protein, etc. Proteinuria, direct bilirubin, hemoglobin, etc. accounted for the progression from stage CKD stage 3a to stage 5. The risk factors for CKD stage 3b progression to stage 5 included low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, diabetes, eosinophil percentage, etc. CONCLUSIONS: CSM could be used as a point-of-care test to screen patients at high risk for disease progression, might allowing individualized therapeutic management.

An independent validation of the kidney failure risk equation in an Asian population

Predicting the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) progression facilitates appropriate nephrology care of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Previously, the kidney failure risk equations (KFREs) were developed and validated in several cohorts. The purpose of this study is to validate the KFREs in a Korean population and to recalibrate the equations. A total of 38,905 adult patients, including 13,244 patients with CKD stages G3–G5, who were referred to nephrology were recruited. Using the original KFREs (4-, 6- and 8-variable equations) and recalibration equations, we predicted the risk of 2- and 5-year ESRD progression. All analyses were conducted in CKD stages G3-G5 patients as well as the total population. In CKD stages G3–G5 patients, All the original 4-, 6- and 8-variable equations showed excellent areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.87 and 0.83 for the 2- and 5-year risk of ESRD, respectively. The results of net reclassification improvement, integrated discrimination index and Brier score showed that recalibration improved the prediction models in some cases. The original KFREs showed high discrimination in both CKD stages G3–G5 patients and the total population referred to nephrology in this large Korean cohort. KFREs can be implemented in Korean health systems and can guide nephrology referrals and other CKD-related treatment decisions.

Chronic kidney disease and upper tract concerns after congenital and acquired urinary tract abnormalities: considerations for transition of care in teens and young adults

PURPOSE

To emphasize the burden that chronic kidney disease (CKD) and its complications place on overall health and well-being over the lifetime in individuals with congenital and acquired urinary tract abnormalities.

METHODS

Topic-based literature review was performed and professional opinion was obtained to describe the scope of medical challenges faced by both teens and adults and their health care providers in the context of congenital and acquired urinary tract abnormalities.

RESULTS

Challenges include accurate assessment of glomerular filtration rate; engaging for consistent surveillance of blood pressure, proteinuria, and medical complications of CKD that increase the risk of progression to end-stage renal disease and affect general health; achieving early referral to nephrology for better outcomes; managing renal complications within the unique limitations of lower urinary tract function; treating upper tract urolithiasis in the atypical urinary tract; and preparing for successful renal transplant.

CONCLUSION

In individuals with congenital or acquired abnormalities of the urinary tract, there is an inherent risk of CKD with its associated morbidity and increased mortality risk. Interplay between the upper and lower urinary tract impacts CKD progression. Collaborative management between urology and nephrology is highly recommended to address the unique challenges for each individual over the lifetime.

Use of disease embedding technique to predict the risk of progression to end-stage renal disease

The accurate prediction of progression of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) to End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) is of great importance to clinicians and a challenge to researchers as there are many causes and even more comorbidities that are ignored by the traditional prediction models. We examine whether utilizing a novel low-dimensional embedding model disease2disease (D2D) learned from a large-scale electronic health records (EHRs) could well clusters the causes of kidney diseases and comorbidities and further improve prediction of progression of CKD to ESRD compared to traditional risk factors. The study cohort consists of 2,507 hospitalized Stage 3 CKD patients of which 1,375 (54.8%) progressed to ESRD within 3 years. We evaluated the proposed unsupervised learning framework by applying a regularized logistic regression model and a cox proportional hazard model respectively, and compared the accuracies with the ones obtained by four alternative models. The results demonstrate that the learned low-dimensional disease representations from EHRs can capture the relationship between vast arrays of diseases, and can outperform traditional risk factors in a CKD progression prediction model. These results can be used both by clinicians in patient care and researchers to develop new prediction methods.

Integrating risk prediction models into chronic kidney disease care

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Although the concept of risk prediction in chronic kidney disease (CKD) is not new, how to integrate risk prediction models into CKD care remains largely unknown, particularly in the prevention and early management of CKD. The present review presents a timely overview of recent CKD risk prediction models and conceptualizes how these may be integrated into the care of patients with CKD.

RECENT FINDINGS

In recent literature, prediction of time-to-ESKD has been thoroughly validated in multiple international cohorts, new models focused on CKD incidence, morbidity, and mortality have been developed, and ongoing work will determine the impact of integrating risk prediction models into CKD care on patients, nephrologists, and health systems.

SUMMARY

With the availability of new models focused on CKD incidence, the United States Preventive Task Force should reconsider its determination of insufficient evidence for primary screening of CKD, which was due in part to the absence of validated risk models to guide CKD screening. Models predicting CKD morbidity and mortality present a new opportunity to standardize the intensity and frequency of care across nephrology practices.

Sex and Glomerular Filtration Rate Trajectories in Children

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Differences in CKD progression by sex have been hypothesized to explain disparities in access to kidney transplantation in children. This study aims to identify distinct trajectories of eGFR decline and to investigate the association of sex with eGFR decline.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

We used data from the CKD in Children study. Latent class mixed models were used to identify eGFR trajectories and patient characteristics were compared between trajectories. Progression was studied to two outcomes: ESKD (dialysis or transplantation) and a combined outcome of ESKD or 50% eGFR decline from baseline, using multivariable parametric failure time models.

RESULTS

Among 888 patients, 613 with nonglomerular and 275 with glomerular diseases, we observed four and two distinct GFR trajectories, respectively. Among patients with nonglomerular diseases, there was a higher proportion of males in the group with a low baseline GFR. This group had an increased risk of ESKD or 50% GFR decline, despite a similar absolute decline in GFR. Eight patients with nonglomerular diseases, mostly males with obstructive uropathies, had a more rapid absolute GFR decline. However, the association between male sex and rapid absolute GFR decline was NS after adjustment for age, baseline GFR, and proteinuria. Among patients with glomerular diseases, a subgroup including mostly females with systemic immunologic diseases or crescentic GN had a rapid absolute GFR decline.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identifies different trajectories of CKD progression in children and found a faster progression of CKD in females in patients with glomerular diseases, but no significant sex difference in patients with nonglomerular diseases. The differences in progression seem likely explained by sex differences in the underlying primary kidney disease and in baseline GFR rather than by a direct effect of sex on progression.

Incidence of Initial Renal Replacement Therapy Over the Course of Kidney Disease in Children

The Chronic Kidney Disease in Children Study, a prospective cohort study with data collected from 2003 to 2018, provided the first opportunity to characterize the incidence of renal replacement therapy (RRT) initiation over the life course of pediatric kidney diseases. In the current analysis, parametric generalized gamma models were fitted and extrapolated for RRT overall and by specific treatment modality (dialysis or preemptive kidney transplant). Children were stratified by type of diagnosis: nonglomerular (mostly congenital; n = 650), glomerular–hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS; n = 49), or glomerular–non-HUS (heterogeneous childhood onset; n = 216). Estimated durations of time to RRT after disease onset for 99% of the nonglomerular and glomerular–non-HUS groups were 42.5 years (95% confidence interval (CI): 31.0, 54.1) and 25.4 years (95% CI: 14.9, 36.0), respectively. Since onset for the great majority of children in the nonglomerular group was congenital, disease duration equated with age. A simulation-based estimate of age at RRT for 99% of the glomerular population was 37.9 years (95% CI: 33.6, 63.2). These models performed well in cross-validation. Children with glomerular disease received dialysis earlier and were less likely to have a preemptive kidney transplant, while the timing and proportions of dialysis and transplantation were similar for the nonglomerular group. These diagnosis-specific estimates provide insight into patient-centered prognostic information and can assist in RRT planning efforts for children with moderate-to-severe kidney disease who are receiving regular specialty care.

Dialysis initiation, modality choice, access, and prescription: conclusions from a Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) Controversies Conference

Globally, the number of patients undergoing maintenance dialysis is increasing, yet throughout the world there is significant variability in the practice of initiating dialysis. Factors such as availability of resources, reasons for starting dialysis, timing of dialysis initiation, patient education and preparedness, dialysis modality and access, as well as varied "country-specific" factors significantly affect patient experiences and outcomes. As the burden of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) has increased globally, there has also been a growing recognition of the importance of patient involvement in determining the goals of care and decisions regarding treatment. In January 2018, KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) convened a Controversies Conference focused on dialysis initiation, including modality choice, access, and prescription. Here we present a summary of the conference discussions, including identified knowledge gaps, areas of controversy, and priorities for research. A major novel theme represented during the conference was the need to move away from a "one-size-fits-all" approach to dialysis and provide more individualized care that incorporates patient goals and preferences while still maintaining best practices for quality and safety. Identifying and including patient-centered goals that can be validated as quality indicators in the context of diverse health care systems to achieve equity of outcomes will require alignment of goals and incentives between patients, providers, regulators, and payers that will vary across health care jurisdictions.

Widening the lens to childhood: relevance and lifetime risk of kidney failure

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Lifetime risk of outcomes is emerging as a highly relevant health indicator, even in the context of low absolute risk of disease progression in short time frames. Evidence to support this concept for kidney failure is increasing, with growing emphasis on the long-term impact of risk factors occurring early in life.

RECENT FINDINGS

Proteinuria and stage of chronic kidney disease (CKD) are now established predictors of CKD progression in children, and youth with type 2 diabetes are emerging as a group at significant risk. Recent population-based studies have also examined the lifetime risk of end-stage renal disease in individuals with any childhood CKD. A recent study found that even in the absence of biomarkers of renal injury, childhood CKD can increase the lifetime risk of end-stage renal disease four-fold, and up to 10-fold in adults less than 40 years of age.

SUMMARY

Children with CKD are at high lifetime risk of kidney failure and require follow-up. Identifying children at highest lifetime risk through the use of biomarkers and risk equations, and determining the optimal duration and intensity of follow-up requires further research.

Assessment of dialysis adequacy: beyond urea kinetic measurements

Adequacy of dialysis is a term that has been used for many years based on measurement of small solute clearance using urea and creatinine. This has been shown in some but not all studies in adults to correlate with survival. However, small solute clearance is just one minor part of the effectiveness of dialysis and in fact 'optimum' dialysis, rather than 'adequate' dialysis is what most paediatric nephrologists would want for their patients. Additional ways to assess the success of dialysis in children would include dialysis access complications and longevity, preservation of residual kidney function, body composition, biochemical and haematological control, nutrition and growth, discomfort during the dialysis process and psychosocial adjustment including hospitalisation and school attendance. These criteria need to be balanced against a dialysis programme that has the least possible adverse effects on quality of life.

Clinical implication of renal allograft volume to recipient body surface area ratio in pediatric renal transplant

Our study aims to assess the clinical implication of RAV/rBSA ratio in PRT as a predictor for attained renal function at 1 year post-transplantation and its association with surgical complications. A retrospective cohort was performed for PRT cases from January 2000 to December 2015 in our institution. Extracted clinical information includes the recipient's demographics, donor type, renal allograft characteristics, arterial, venous and ureteral anastomoses, vascular anastomosis time while kidney off ice, overall operative time, and estimated blood loss. The RAV/rBSA was extrapolated and assessed for its association with renal graft function attained in 1 year post-transplantation and surgical complications within 30-day post-transplantation. A total of 324 PRTs cases were analyzed. The cohort consisted of 187 (52.4%) male and 137 (42.3%) female recipients, with 152 (46.9%) living donor and 172 (53.1%) deceased donor renal transplants, and an overall median age of 155.26 months (IQR 76.70-186.98) at time of renal transplantation. The receiver operating characteristic identified that a RAV/rBSA ratio of 135 was the optimal cutoff in determining the renal graft function outcome. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed the relative OR for RAV/rBSA ≥ 135 ratio in predicting an eGFR ≥ 90 attained within 1 year post-transplant was highest among younger pediatric recipients (<142.5 months) of deceased kidney donors (OR = 11.143, 95% CI = 3.156-39.34). Conversely, Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that RAV/rBSA ratio ≥ 135 is associated with lower odds of having eGFR <60 (OR = 0.417, 95% CI = 0.203-0.856). The RAV/rBSA ratio was not associated nor predictive of transplant-related surgical complications. Our study determined that the RAV/rBSA ratio is predictive of renal graft function at 1-year PRT, but not associated with any increased surgical complications.