A competing risk analysis for hospital length of stay in patients with burns

American Burn Association (ABA) Burn Care Quality Platform (BCQP) and Large Data Set Analysis Considerations: A Practical Guide to Investigating Clinical Questions in Burns via Large Data Sets

The Burn Care Quality Platform (BCQP) consolidates data previously collected from the National Burn Repository and the Burn Quality Improvement Program into a single registry. Its data elements and their associated definitions are tailored to create consistency across other national trauma registries, namely the National Trauma Data Bank implemented by the American College of Surgeons Trauma Quality Improvement Program (ACS TQIP). The BCQP now includes 103 participating burn centers and has captured data from 375,000 total patients as of 2021. With 12,000 patients entered under the current data dictionary, the BCQP represents the largest registry of its kind. On behalf of the American Burn Association Research Committee, the aim of this whitepaper is to provide a succinct overview of the BCQP, showcasing its unique features, strengths, limitations, and relevant statistical considerations. This whitepaper will highlight the resources available to the burn research community and offer insight on proper study design when preparing to conduct a large data set investigation for burn care. All recommendations herein were formulated through the consensus of a multidisciplinary committee and based on the available scientific evidence.

Trauma patient heterotopic ossification diagnosis is associated with increased hospital length of stay

BACKGROUND

Traumatic heterotopic ossification (tHO) refers to the development of extra-skeletal bone in muscle and soft tissues following tissue insult secondary to surgery or trauma. This presents a persistent clinical concern associated with significant patient morbidity and expense to diagnose and treat. Traumatic HO is a substantial barrier to rehabilitation for trauma-injured patients. As such, the development of tHO after burn and other trauma is hypothesised to prolong inpatient length of stay (LOS) and thus increase health care costs.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between an inpatient tHO diagnosis and hospital LOS in trauma patients.

METHODS

A retrospective audit of trauma patients over a 14-year period was completed using data from four WA hospitals. Burn and neurological trauma patients diagnosed with tHO as an inpatient (tHO+) and control subjects (tHO-), matched (1:3) by age, gender, and injury severity factors, were identified using medical diagnostic codes. Data relating to patient and injury-related determinants of LOS from tHO+ and tHO- subjects were analysed to model the association of tHO on total hospital length of stay.

RESULTS

188 identified patients were hospitalised due to traumatic injury; 47 patients with tHO following burn injury (n = 17), spinal cord injury (n = 13) and traumatic brain injury (n = 17), and 141 control patients. Those who developed tHO during hospitalisation had a significantly higher median LOS than matched trauma patients who did not develop tHO (142 days vs. 61 days). Multivariate regression analyses identified the following independent predictive factors of a prolonged hospital LOS: tHO diagnosis, mechanical ventilation hours, injury to the hip region and thigh area, other ossification disorder, pressure injury, admission to intensive care unit and deep vein thrombosis. Trauma patients diagnosed with tHO during their hospital admission stayed 1.6 times longer than trauma patients matched for injury severity without a tHO diagnosis (IRR 1.56, 95% CI 1.35-1.79, p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Traumatic heterotopic ossification is an independent explanatory factor for increased hospital LOS in patients following burns, spinal cord, and traumatic brain injury. Early diagnosis may assist in reducing the impact of tHO on acute hospital stay after trauma.

Understanding the Drivers of Cost and Length of Stay in a Cohort of 21,875 Patients with Severe Burn

Burn management has significantly advanced in the past 75 years, resulting in improved mortality rates. However, there are still over one million burn victims in the United States each year, with over 3,000 burn-related deaths annually. The impacts of individual patient, hospital, and regional demographics on length of stay (LOS) and total cost have yet to be fully explored in a large nationally representative cohort. Thus, this study aimed to examine various hospital and patient characteristics using a sample of over 20,000 patients. Inpatient data from the National Inpatient Sample from 2008 to 2015 were analyzed, and only patients with an ICD-9 code for second- or third-degree burns were included. In addition, a major operating room procedure must have been indicated on the discharge summary for patients to be included in the final dataset, ensuring that only severe burns requiring complex care were analyzed. Analysis of covariance models was used to evaluate the impact of various patient, hospital, and regional variables on both LOS and cost. The study found that skin grafts and fasciotomy significantly increased the cost of hospitalization. Having burns on the face, neck, and trunk significantly increased costs for patients with second-degree burns, while burns on the trunk resulted in the longest LOS for patients with third-degree burns. Infections in the hospital and additional procedures, such as flaps and skin grafts, also led to longer stays. The study also found that the prevalence of postoperative complications, such as electrolyte imbalance, was high among patients with burn surgery.

Competing risks modeling of length of hospital stay enhances risk-stratification of patient care: application to under-five children hospitalized in Malawi

Introduction

Length of hospital stay (LOS), defined as the time from inpatient admission to discharge, death, referral, or abscondment, is one of the key indicators of quality in patient care. Reduced LOS lowers health care expenditure and minimizes the chance of in-hospital acquired infections. Conventional methods for estimating LOS such as the Kaplan-Meier survival curve and the Cox proportional hazards regression for time to discharge cannot account for competing risks such as death, referral, and abscondment. This study applied competing risk methods to investigate factors important for risk-stratifying patients based on LOS in order to enhance patient care.

Methods

This study analyzed data from ongoing safety surveillance of the malaria vaccine implementation program in Malawi's four district hospitals of Balaka, Machinga, Mchinji, and Ntchisi. Children aged 1-59 months who were hospitalized (spending at least one night in hospital) with a medical illness were consecutively enrolled between 1 November 2019 and 31 July 2021. Sub-distribution-hazard (SDH) ratios for the cumulative incidence of discharge were estimated using the Fine-Gray competing risk model.

Results

Among the 15,463 children hospitalized, 8,607 (55.7%) were male and 6,856 (44.3%) were female. The median age was 22 months [interquartile range (IQR): 12-33 months]. The cumulative incidence of discharge was 40% lower among HIV-positive children compared to HIV-negative (sub-distribution-hazard ratio [SDHR]: 0.60; [95% CI: 0.46-0.76]; P < 0.001); lower among children with severe and cerebral malaria [SDHR: 0.94; (95% CI: 0.86-0.97); P = 0.04], sepsis or septicemia [SDHR: 0.90; (95% CI: 0.82-0.98); P = 0.027], severe anemia related to malaria [SDHR: 0.54; (95% CI: 0.48-0.61); P < 0.001], and meningitis [SDHR: 0.18; (95% CI: 0.09-0.37); P < 0.001] when compared to non-severe malaria; and also 39% lower among malnourished children compared to those that were well-nourished [SDHR: 0.61; (95% CI: 0.55-0.68); P < 0.001].

Conclusions

This study applied the Fine-Gray competing risk approach to more accurately model LOS as the time to discharge when there were significant rates of in-hospital mortality, referrals, and abscondment. Patient care can be enhanced by risk-stratifying by LOS based on children's age, HIV status, diagnosis, and nutritional status.

Special Considerations for Pediatric Burn Injuries

Burns are the fifth leading cause of non-fatal childhood injuries. Physiological differences between children and adults lead to unique considerations when treating young burn survivors. In addition to the physical and psychological concerns which must be considered in adult burn rehabilitation, pediatric burn rehabilitation must also consider the developmental stage of the child, preexisting developmental delays, and the impact of scaring on growth and motor skill attainment. Treatment of pediatric burn survivors requires a multidisciplinary approach centered around caring for not only the child but also for their parents, siblings, and other caregivers. For children who sustain burns early in life, long-term follow-up is essential and should be conducted under the guidance of a burn center for the early identification of needed interventions during periods of growth and development. This article considers pediatric-specific factors, which may present during the rehabilitation of a child with a burn injury.

Factors Associated with the Rehabilitation of the Older Adult Burn Patient

The number of older people is increasing and as a result so will the number of older adult patients who present with a burn injury. There are distinct differences between older and younger burn patients, particularly with respect to skin anatomy and physiology and frailty. These are 2 important factors that influence the rehabilitation efforts with respect to older adult burn patients. There has been minimal work done studying the specific rehabilitation of older adult burn patients. More work is needed to fully understand the rehabilitation needs of older adult burn patients.

European Burns Association guidelines for the management of burn mass casualty incidents within a European response plan

BACKGROUND

A European response plan to burn mass casualty incidents has been jointly developed by the European Commission and the European Burn Association. Upon request for assistance by an affected country, the plan outlines a mechanism for coordinated international assistance, aiming to alleviate the burden of care in the affected country and to offer adequate specialized care to all patients who can benefit from it. To that aim, Burn Assessment Teams are deployed to assess and triage patients. Their transportation priority recommendations are used to distribute outnumbering burn casualties to foreign burn centers. Following an appropriate medical evacuation, these casualties receive specialized care in those facilities.

METHODS

The European Burns Association's disaster committee developed medical-organizational guidelines to support this European plan. The experts identified fields of interest, defined questions to be addressed, performed relevant literature searches, and added their expertise in burn disaster preparedness and response. Due to the lack of high-level evidence in the available literature, recommendations and specially designed implementation tools were provided from expert opinion. The European Burns Association officially endorsed the draft recommendations in 2019, and the final full text was approved by the EBA executive committee in 2022.

RECOMMENDATIONS

The resulting 46 recommendations address four fields. Field 1 underlines the need for national preparedness plans and the necessary core items within such plans, including coordination and integration with an international response. Field 2 describes Burn Assessment Teams' roles, composition, training requirements, and reporting goals. Field 3 addresses the goals of specialized in-hospital triage, appropriate severity criteria, and their effects on priorities and triage. Finally, field 4 covers medical evacuations, including their timing and organization, the composition of evacuation teams and their assets, preparation, and the principles of en route care.

Cost analysis of severe burn victims in Southwest China: A 7-year retrospective study

Background

Severe burn injury can be a life-threatening experience and can also lead to financial issues for suffers. The purpose of the current study was to analyze the direct hospitalization costs of severe burn inpatients in Southwest China.

Methods

Data related to all inpatients admitted with severe burns [total body surface area (TBSA) ≥30%] pooled from 2015 to 2021 were reviewed retrospectively at the Institute of Burn Research of Army Medical University. Demographic parameters, medical economics, and clinical data were obtained from medical records.

Results

A total of 668 cases were identified. The average age was 37.49 ± 21.00 years, and 72.3% were men. The average TBSA was 51.35 ± 19.49%. The median length of stay of inpatients in the burn intensive care unit was 14 [interquartile range (IQR): 5.0-34.8] days, and the median length of stay (LOS) was 41 (IQR: 22.0-73.8) days. The mortality rate was 1.6%. The median total cost was 212,755.45 CNY (IQR: 83,908.80-551,621.57 CNY) per patient varying from 3,521.30 to 4,822,357.19 CNY. The direct cost of scald burns was dramatically lower compared with that of other types of burns, with 11,213.43 to 2,819,019.14 CNY. Medical consumables presented the largest portion of total costs, with a median cost of 65,942.64 CNY (IQR: 18,771.86-171,197.97 CNY). The crucial risk factors for medical cost in our study were TBSA, surgical frequency, LOS, depth of burn, and outcome.

Conclusion

We conclude that an effective burn prevention program, shorter hospital stays, and facilitating the healing of wounds should be focused on with tailored precautionary protocols to reduce the medical costs of inpatients with severe burns.

Mortality and Conversion to Transfemoral Amputation After Transtibial Amputation in the Veterans Affairs Health System

INTRODUCTION

Transtibial below-knee amputation (BKA) is associated with considerable morbidity, particularly in the vasculopathic population. The purpose of this study was to determine the cumulative probability of undergoing transfemoral above-knee amputation (AKA) conversion within 5 years of BKA and associated risk factors while accounting for the competing risk of death.

METHODS

This is a retrospective, national database study with structured query of the Veterans Affairs (VA) database for patients who underwent BKA from 1999 to 2020, identified by Current Procedural Terminology codes. Above-knee amputation conversion was identified using Current Procedural Terminology codes in combination with natural language processing to match procedure laterality. After internally validating our patient identification method, risk factors were collected. Competing risk analysis estimated the cumulative incidence rate of AKA conversion and associated risk factors with death as a competing risk.

RESULTS

Our query yielded 19,875 patients (19,640 men, 98.8%) who underwent BKA with a median age of 66 years (interquartile range, 60 to 73). The median follow-up was 951 days (interquartile range, 275 to 2,026). The crude cumulative probabilities of AKA conversion and death at 5 years were 15.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 14.9% to 16.0%) and 47.7% (95% CI, 46.9% to 48.4%), respectively. In the Fine and Gray subdistribution hazard model, peripheral vascular disease had the highest AKA conversion risk (hazard ratio [HR] 2.66; 95% CI, 2.22 to 3.20; P < 0.001). Other factors independently associated with AKA conversion included urgent operation (HR 1.32; 95% CI, 1.23 to 1.42), cerebrovascular disease (HR 1.19; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.28), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR 1.15; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.24), and previous myocardial infarction (HR 1.10; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.19) (All P < 0.02).

DISCUSSION

Within this predominantly male, VA population, BKA carries a high risk of conversion to AKA within 5 years, without reaching a steady risk of AKA conversion within 5 years. Peripheral vascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cerebrovascular disease, previous myocardial infarction, and urgent BKA increase the risk of AKA conversion.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III.

A comparison of statistical methods for modeling count data with an application to hospital length of stay

Background

Hospital length of stay (LOS) is a key indicator of hospital care management efficiency, cost of care, and hospital planning. Hospital LOS is often used as a measure of a post-medical procedure outcome, as a guide to the benefit of a treatment of interest, or as an important risk factor for adverse events. Therefore, understanding hospital LOS variability is always an important healthcare focus. Hospital LOS data can be treated as count data, with discrete and non-negative values, typically right skewed, and often exhibiting excessive zeros. In this study, we compared the performance of the Poisson, negative binomial (NB), zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression models using simulated and empirical data.

Methods

Data were generated under different simulation scenarios with varying sample sizes, proportions of zeros, and levels of overdispersion. Analysis of hospital LOS was conducted using empirical data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care database.

Results

Results showed that Poisson and ZIP models performed poorly in overdispersed data. ZIP outperformed the rest of the regression models when the overdispersion is due to zero-inflation only. NB and ZINB regression models faced substantial convergence issues when incorrectly used to model equidispersed data. NB model provided the best fit in overdispersed data and outperformed the ZINB model in many simulation scenarios with combinations of zero-inflation and overdispersion, regardless of the sample size. In the empirical data analysis, we demonstrated that fitting incorrect models to overdispersed data leaded to incorrect regression coefficients estimates and overstated significance of some of the predictors.

Conclusions

Based on this study, we recommend to the researchers that they consider the ZIP models for count data with zero-inflation only and NB models for overdispersed data or data with combinations of zero-inflation and overdispersion. If the researcher believes there are two different data generating mechanisms producing zeros, then the ZINB regression model may provide greater flexibility when modeling the zero-inflation and overdispersion.

The analysis of COVID-19 in-hospital mortality: A competing risk approach or a cure model?

Competing risk analyses have been widely used for the analysis of in-hospital mortality in which hospital discharge is considered as a competing event. The competing risk model assumes that more than one cause of failure is possible, but there is only one outcome of interest and all others serve as competing events. However, hospital discharge and in-hospital death are two outcomes resulting from the same disease process and patients whose disease conditions were stabilized so that inpatient care was no longer needed were discharged. We therefore propose to use cure models, in which hospital discharge is treated as an observed “cure” of the disease. We consider both the mixture cure model and the promotion time cure model and extend the models to allow cure status to be known for those who were discharged from the hospital. An EM algorithm is developed for the mixture cure model. We also show that the competing risk model, which treats hospital discharge as a competing event, is equivalent to a promotion time cure model. Both cure models were examined in simulation studies and were applied to a recent cohort of COVID-19 in-hospital patients with diabetes. The promotion time model shows that statin use improved the overall survival; the mixture cure model shows that while statin use reduced the in-hospital mortality rate among the susceptible, it improved the cure probability only for older but not younger patients. Both cure models show that treatment was more beneficial among older patients.

Burn Registries State of Affairs: A Scoping review

Registry science allows for the interpretation of disease-specific patient data from secondary databases. It can be utilized to understand disease and injury, answer research questions, and engender benchmarking of quality-of-care indicators. Numerous burn registries exist globally, however, their contributions to burn care have not been summarized. The objective of this study is to characterize the available literature on burn registries. The authors conducted a scoping review, having registered the protocol a priori. A thorough search of the English literature, including grey literature, was carried out. Publications of all study designs were eligible for inclusion provided they utilized, analyzed, and/or critiqued data from a burn registry. Three hundred twenty studies were included, encompassing 16 existing burn registries. The most frequently used registries for peer-reviewed publications were the American Burn Association Burn Registry, Burn Model System National Database, and the Burns Registry of Australia and New Zealand. The main limitations of existing registries are the inclusion of patients admitted to burn centers only, deficient capture of outpatient and long-term outcome data, lack of data standardization across registries, and the paucity of studies on burn prevention and quality improvement methodology. Registries are an invaluable source of information for research, delivery of care planning, and benchmarking of processes and outcomes. Efforts should be made to stimulate other jurisdictions to build burn registries and for existing registries to be improved through data linkage with administrative databases, and by standardizing one international minimum dataset, in order to maximize the potential of registry science in burn care.

Leveraging EHR Data to Evaluate the Association of Late Recognition of Deterioration With Outcomes

OBJECTIVES

Emergency transfers (ETs), deterioration events with late recognition requiring ICU interventions within 1 hour of transfer, are associated with adverse outcomes. We leveraged electronic health record (EHR) data to assess the association between ETs and outcomes. We also evaluated the association between intervention timing (urgency) and outcomes.

METHODS

We conducted a propensity-score-matched study of hospitalized children requiring ICU transfer between 2015 and 2019 at a single institution. The primary exposure was ET, automatically classified using Epic Clarity Data stored in our enterprise data warehouse endotracheal tube in lines/drains/airway flowsheet, vasopressor in medication administration record, and/or ≥60 ml/kg intravenous fluids in intake/output flowsheets recorded within 1 hour of transfer. Urgent intervention was defined as interventions within 12 hours of transfer.

RESULTS

Of 2037 index transfers, 129 (6.3%) met ET criteria. In the propensity-score-matched cohort (127 ET, 374 matched controls), ET was associated with higher in-hospital mortality (13% vs 6.1%; odds ratio, 2.47; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.24-4.9, P = .01), longer ICU length of stay (subdistribution hazard ratio of ICU discharge 0.74; 95% CI, 0.61-0.91, P < .01), and longer posttransfer length of stay (SHR of hospital discharge 0.71; 95% CI, 0.56-0.90, P < .01). Increased intervention urgency was associated with increased mortality risk: 4.1% no intervention, 6.4% urgent intervention, and 10% emergent intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

An EHR measure of deterioration with late recognition is associated with increased mortality and length of stay. Mortality risk increased with intervention urgency. Leveraging EHR automation facilitates generalizability, multicenter collaboratives, and metric consistency.

Wound Healing in Older Adults With Severe Burns: Clinical Treatment Considerations and Challenges

Background:

The older adult population continues to rapidly expand in number, with a projection by the United States (US) Census Bureau that there will be more individuals older than > 65 years (77.0 million) than those younger than < 18 years (76.5 million) by 2034. This review provides an overview of aging as it relates to wound healing and burn injuries in older adult patients, summarizes current treatment practices, and addresses the key challenges and considerations for treating severe burn injuries in this specific patient population.

Materials and methods:

A narrative literature search was conducted, focusing on recent primary literature on burns and wound healing in elderly patients.

Results:

Studies showed that the aging process results in both physiologic (eg, nutritional and metabolic status) and anatomic changes (eg, thinning dermis) that contribute to a reduced capacity to recover from burn-injury trauma compared with younger patients. Owing to impaired vision, decreased coordination, comorbidities, and medication-induced side effects, older adults (ie, > 65 years) are susceptible to severe burn injury (deep-partial thickness and full-thickness), which is associated with significant morbidity and mortality.

Conclusion:

A better understanding of the effects of age-related changes regarding wound healing in older adult patients who incur severe burn injuries may provide insight into clinical strategies to improve outcomes among this population.

Predicting Hospital Length of Stay at Admission Using Global and Country-Specific Competing Risk Analysis of Structural, Patient, and Nutrition-Related Data from nutritionDay 2007-2015

Hospital length of stay (LOS) is an important clinical and economic outcome and knowing its predictors could lead to better planning of resources needed during hospitalization. This analysis sought to identify structure, patient, and nutrition-related predictors of LOS available at the time of admission in the global nutritionDay dataset and to analyze variations by country for countries with n > 750. Data from 2006–2015 (n = 155,524) was utilized for descriptive and multivariable cause-specific Cox proportional hazards competing-risks analyses of total LOS from admission. Time to event analysis on 90,480 complete cases included: discharged (n = 65,509), transferred (n = 11,553), or in-hospital death (n = 3199). The median LOS was 6 days (25th and 75th percentile: 4–12). There is robust evidence that LOS is predicted by patient characteristics such as age, affected organs, and comorbidities in all three outcomes. Having lost weight in the last three months led to a longer time to discharge (Hazard Ratio (HR) 0.89; 99.9% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.85–0.93), shorter time to transfer (HR 1.40; 99.9% CI 1.24–1.57) or death (HR 2.34; 99.9% CI 1.86–2.94). The impact of having a dietician and screening patients at admission varied by country. Despite country variability in outcomes and LOS, the factors that predict LOS at admission are consistent globally.

Addressing Competing Risks When Assessing the Impact of Health Services Interventions on Hospital Length of Stay

BACKGROUND

Although hospital length of stay is generally modeled continuously, it is increasingly recommended that length of stay should be considered a time-to-event outcome (i.e., time to discharge). Additionally, in-hospital mortality is a competing risk that makes it impossible for a patient to be discharged alive. We estimated the effect of trauma center accreditation on risk of being discharged alive while considering in-hospital mortality as a competing risk. We also compared these results with those from the "naive" approach, with length of stay modeled continuously.

METHODS

Data include admissions to a level I trauma center in Quebec, Canada, between 2008 and 2017. We computed standardized risk of being discharged alive at specific days by combining inverse probability weighting and the Aalen-Johansen estimator of the cumulative incidence function. We estimated effect of accreditation using pre-post, interrupted time series (ITS) analyses, and the "naive" approach.

RESULTS

Among 5,300 admissions, 12% died, and 83% were discharged alive within 60 days. Following accreditation, we observed increases in risk of discharge between the 7th day (4.5% [95% CI = 2.3, 6.6]) and 30th day since admission 3.8% (95% CI = 1.5, 6.2). We also observed a stable decrease in hospital mortality, -1.9% (95% CI = -3.6, -0.11) at the 14th day. Although pre-post and ITS produced similar results, we observed contradictory associations with the naive approach.

CONCLUSIONS

Treating length of stay as time to discharge allows for estimation of risk of being discharged alive at specific days after admission while accounting for competing risk of death.

Contracture Severity at Hospital Discharge in Children: A Burn Model System Database Study

Contractures can complicate burn recovery. There are limited studies examining the prevalence of contractures following burns in pediatrics. This study investigates contracture outcomes by location, injury, severity, length of stay, and developmental stage. Data were obtained from the Burn Model System between 1994 and 2003. All patients younger than the age of 18 with at least one joint contracture at hospital discharge were included. Sixteen areas of impaired movement from the shoulder, elbow, wrist, hand, hip, knee, and ankle joints were examined. Analysis of variance was used to assess the association between contracture severity, burn size, and length of stay. Age groupings were evaluated for developmental patterns. A P value of less than .05 was considered statistically significant. Data from 225 patients yielded 1597 contractures (758 in the hand) with a mean of 7.1 contractures (median 4) per patient. Mean contracture severity ranged from 17% (elbow extension) to 41% (ankle plantarflexion) loss of movement. Statistically significant associations were found between active range of motion loss and burn size, length of stay, and age groupings. The data illustrate quantitative assessment of burn contractures in pediatric patients at discharge in a multicenter database. Size of injury correlates with range of motion loss for many joint motions, reflecting the anticipated morbidity of contracture for pediatric burn survivors. These results serve as a potential reference for range of motion outcomes in the pediatric burn population, which could serve as a comparison for local practices, quality improvement measures, and future research.

Massive burns: retrospective analysis of changes in outcomes indicators across 18 years

BACKGROUND

The treatment and management of massive burns, defined as burns affecting≥ 50% of total body surface area (TBSA) has considerably changed since the 90s. This study aimed at analyzing if the length of intensive care unit (ICU) stay, the success of skin grafting operations and the mortality changed in the last 18 years.

METHODS

Between 2000 and 2018, 77 patients were admitted for massive burns to the ICU of a university hospital. Transfers and early care withdrawal precluded inclusion for 38 patients, leaving 39 for analysis. Study variables were year of admission, demographics, burn characteristics, critical care treatment (fluid resuscitation, ventilation and nutrition) and surgical therapy. Association between outcomes and year of admission were assessed through correlation and logistic regression analysis. Potential confounders were assessed through stepwise linear regression.

RESULTS

Patients' characteristics were stable over time with a median age of 36[25.0, 48.0] years, burns 65% [55.0, 83.0] TBSA and deep burns 55% [50.0, 68.0] TBSA . Length of ICU stay remained stable at 0.97 [0.6, 1.5] days/%TBSA. Mortality was stable as well. Energy and carbohydrate delivery decreased in parallel with the number of infectious episodes per patient. Number of operations was stable but the take rate of skin grafts increased significantly. The multivariate analysis retained year of admission, weight, total number of infections, daily lipid intakes and fluid resuscitation as independent predicting variables.

CONCLUSION

Length of ICU stay and mortality did not change over time but skin grafts take rates improved significantly.

Optimal surgeon and hospital volume thresholds to reduce mortality and length of stay for CABG

Objective

We used nationwide population-based data to identify optimal hospital and surgeon volume thresholds and to discover the effects of these volume thresholds on operative mortality and length of stay (LOS) for coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG).

Design

Retrospective cohort study.

Setting

General acute care hospitals throughout Taiwan.

Participants

A total of 12,892 CABG patients admitted between 2011 and 2015 were extracted from Taiwan National Health Insurance claims data.

Main Outcome Measures

Operative mortality and LOS. Restricted cubic splines were applied to discover the optimal hospital and surgeon volume thresholds needed to reduce operative mortality. Generalized estimating equation regression modeling, Cox proportional-hazards modeling and instrumental variables analysis were employed to examine the effects of hospital and surgeon volume thresholds on the operative mortality and LOS.

Results

The volume thresholds for hospitals and surgeons were 55 cases and 5 cases per year, respectively. Patients who underwent CABG from hospitals that did not reach the volume threshold had higher operative mortality than those who received CABG from hospitals that did reach the volume threshold. Patients who underwent CABG with surgeons who did not reach the volume threshold had higher operative mortality and LOS than those who underwent CABG with surgeons who did reach the volume threshold.

Conclusions

This is the first study to identify the optimal hospital and surgeon volume thresholds for reducing operative mortality and LOS. This supports policies regionalizing CABG at high-volume hospitals. Identifying volume thresholds could help patients, providers, and policymakers provide optimal care.

Factors associated with outcomes after burn care: A retrospective study in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo

OBJECTIVE

In low income countries, incidence of burns is high and severe burns are frequently managed at peripheral facilities. Outcome after burn care is poorly studied although it might help identify risk-group and improve treatment strategies. This study aimed to study factors associated with in-hospital outcomes in a burn cohort in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

METHODS

In this retrospective study we included burn patients admitted to the surgical department at the Hôpital Provincial Général de Référence de Bukavu between January 2013 and December 2018. Differences between groups were tested using χ2 test or Fisher's exact tests or Wilcoxon rank sum test, as appropriate. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the effect of patients and of burn characteristics on in-hospital mortality, prolongated length of stay (=LOS≥25days) and occurrence of complications.

RESULTS

The study population consisted of 100 patients, mainly young male with rural origin, moderate sized but deep burns. Of them, 46 developed complications, 12 died. Median LOS was 25 days (IQR: 15-42). In-hospital death was independently associated with Total Burn Surface Area percentage "TBSA%" (OR=3.96; 95% CI=1.67-9.40) and Full thickness Burns "FTB" (10.68; 1.34-84.74); prolongated LOS with FTB (3.35; 1.07-10.49), and complication with rural origin (5.84; 1.51-22.53), TBSA% (3.96; 1.67-9.40), FTB (4.08; 1.19-14.00) and burns on multiple sites (4.38; 1.38-13.86).

CONCLUSION

In-hospital death was associated with TBSA% and FTB, prolongated LOS with FTB, and complication with burns characteristics and rural origin of the patients. Further studies are necessary to investigate the effect of provided burn care on outcomes.

Association of Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors and Angiotensin Receptor Blockers With the Risk of Hospitalization and Death in Hypertensive Patients With COVID-19

Background

Despite its clinical significance, the risk of severe infection requiring hospitalization among outpatients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection who receive angiotensin‐converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) remains uncertain.

Methods and Results

In a propensity score–matched outpatient cohort (January–May 2020) of 2263 Medicare Advantage and commercially insured individuals with hypertension and a positive outpatient SARS‐CoV‐2, we determined the association of ACE inhibitors and ARBs with COVID‐19 hospitalization. In a concurrent inpatient cohort of 7933 hospitalized with COVID‐19, we tested their association with in‐hospital mortality. The robustness of the observations was assessed in a contemporary cohort (May–August). In the outpatient study, neither ACE inhibitors (hazard ratio [HR], 0.77; 0.53–1.13, P=0.18) nor ARBs (HR, 0.88; 0.61–1.26, P=0.48) were associated with hospitalization risk. ACE inhibitors were associated with lower hospitalization risk in the older Medicare group (HR, 0.61; 0.41–0.93, P=0.02), but not the younger commercially insured group (HR, 2.14; 0.82–5.60, P=0.12; P‐interaction 0.09). Neither ACE inhibitors nor ARBs were associated with lower hospitalization risk in either population in the validation cohort. In the primary inpatient study cohort, neither ACE inhibitors (HR, 0.97; 0.81–1.16; P=0.74) nor ARBs (HR, 1.15; 0.95–1.38, P=0.15) were associated with in‐hospital mortality. These observations were consistent in the validation cohort.

Conclusions

ACE inhibitors and ARBs were not associated with COVID‐19 hospitalization or mortality. Despite early evidence for a potential association between ACE inhibitors and severe COVID‐19 prevention in older individuals, the inconsistency of this observation in recent data argues against a role for prophylaxis.

Comparison of prognostic models for burn patients: A retrospective nationwide registry study

BACKGROUND

Prognostic burn index (PBI) is a unique model utilized to predict mortality of burn patients in Japan. In contrast, other prediction models are rarely used in Japan, and their accuracy and predictive value are unknown. The present study aimed to compare commonly used burn prediction models and determine the appropriate model for mortality prediction in Japanese burn patients.

METHODS

Japanese burn patients registered in the nationwide burn registry of Japanese Society for Burn Injury between April 1, 2011 and March 31, 2019 were reviewed retrospectively. The prognostic performance of PBI was compared with Baux score, revised Baux score, abbreviated burn severity index (ABSI), Ryan score and Belgian outcome in burn injury score (BOBI). The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

The study included 7911 acute burn patients. The overall mortality rate was 10.7%, the median age was 52 (interquartile range, 26-72) years, and the median % total body surface area was 7% (interquartile range, 3%-17%). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for PBI, Baux score, ABSI, revised Baux score, Ryan score, and BOBI were 0.940 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.931-0.948), 0.943 (95% CI: 0.934-0.951; p=0.002), 0.945 (95% CI: 0.937-0.953; p=0.058), 0.946 (95% CI: 0.937-0.953; p=0.002), 0.859 (95% CI: 0.846-0.870; p<0.001), and 0.896 (95% CI: 0.885-0.905; p<0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Although the performance of PBI was good, it was not superior to the Baux score, revised Baux score, and ABSI. These three scores have a high prognostic accuracy. Hence, they are considered as alternative burn prognostic scores in Japan. The Baux score was an optimal prognostic model for patients with burns in Japan.

What can be learned from crude intensive care unit mortality? Methodological implications

PURPOSE

Demonstrate the practical range of information that can be obtained about ICU mortality/survival from limited administrative data.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Prospectively collected administrative data (length-of stay, survival/mortality, referring service) from a university medical center's General ICU was subjected to retrospective analysis to demonstrate ways of presenting and analyzing mortality/survival information.

RESULTS

16,022 patients (87,624 patient-days) admitted over 23 years were included. 28% of all deaths occurred on ICU day 1. When considering all admissions, mortality on ICU day 1 was 2%, while the overall crude mortality rate revealed that the chances of dying during an ICU stay was 8.6%. Mortality rates in the overall population steadily increased over ICU days 1-5, plateaued during days 6 to 50, decreasing after day 50. The general surgery subgroup had a similar pattern. This contrasted with the internal medicine subgroup where mortality steadily increased over the initial 14 ICU days then plateauing at rates of 40-50%.

INTERPRETATION

Simple calculations using the few variables found in administrative database enhanced information provided by the crude mortality rate and demonstrated that temporal patterns of mortality change as stay lengthens. These results highlight the limitations of just using overall crude mortality rates.

Superior Effects of Nebulized Epinephrine to Nebulized Albuterol and Phenylephrine in Burn and Smoke Inhalation-Induced Acute Lung Injury

The severity of burn and smoke inhalation-induced acute lung injury (BSI-ALI) is associated with alveolar and interstitial edema, bronchospasm, and airway mucosal hyperemia. Previously, we have reported beneficial effects of epinephrine nebulization on BSI-ALI. However, the underlying mechanisms of salutary effects of nebulized epinephrine remain unclear. The present study compared the effects of epinephrine, phenylephrine, and albuterol on a model of BSI-ALI. We tested the hypothesis that both α1- and β2-agonist effects are required for ameliorating more efficiently the BSI-ALI. Forty percent of total body surface area, 3rd-degree cutaneous burn, and 48-breaths of cotton smoke inhalation were induced to 46 female Merino sheep. Postinjury, sheep were mechanically ventilated and cardiopulmonary hemodynamics were monitored for 48 h. Sheep were allocated into groups: control, n = 17; epinephrine, n = 11; phenylephrine, n = 6; and albuterol, n = 12. The drug nebulization began 1 h postinjury and was repeated every 4 h thereafter. In the results, epinephrine group significantly improved oxygenation compared to other groups, and significantly reduced pulmonary vascular permeability index, lung wet-to-dry weight ratio, and lung tissue growth factor-β1 level compared with albuterol and control groups. Epinephrine and phenylephrine groups significantly reduced trachea wet-to-dry weight ratio and lung vascular endothelial growth factor-A level compared with control group. Histopathologically, epinephrine group significantly reduced lung severity scores and preserved vascular endothelial-cadherin level in pulmonary arteries. In conclusion, the results of our studies suggest that nebulized epinephrine more effectively ameliorated the severity of BSI-ALI than albuterol or phenylephrine, possibly by its combined α1- and β2-agonist properties.

Assessment and determinants of global outcomes among 445 mass-casualty burn survivors: A 2-year retrospective cohort study in Taiwan

PURPOSE

To study outcomes among survivors of the mass-casualty powder explosion on 27 June 2015, at Formosa Fun Coast Waterpark, New Taipei City, Taiwan.

METHODS

Using retrospective data on Taiwanese survivors, we analyzed prehospital management, burns assessment and prognosis, functional recovery, and medical costs, followed-up through 30 June 2017. We related outcomes to burn extent, categorized according to the percentages of total body surface area with second/third-degree burns (%TBSA) or autologous split-thickness skin grafts (%STSG), and an investigational scale: f{SASG} = (%TBSA + %STSG)/2, stratified by %STSG. Analyses included casualty dispersal, comparisons between %TBSA, %STSG and f{SASG}, and their relationships with length of hospitalization, times to rehabilitation and social/school re-entry, physical/mental disability, and medical costs. We also investigated how burn scars restricting joint mobility affected rehabilitation duration.

RESULTS

445 hospitalized casualties (excluding 16 foreigners, 23 with 0% TBSA and 15 fatalities) aged 12-38 years, had mean TBSA of 41.1%. Hospitalization and functional recovery durations correlated with %TBSA, %STSG and f{SASG} - mean length of stay per %TBSA was 1.5 days; more numerous burn scar contractures prolonged rehabilitation. Females had worse burns than males, longer hospitalization and rehabilitation, and later school/social re-entry; at follow-up, 62.3% versus 37.7% had disabilities and 57.7% versus 42.3% suffered mental trauma (all p ≤ 0.001). Disabilities affecting 225/227 people were skin-related; 34 were severely disabled but 193 had mild/moderate impairments. The prevalence of stress-related and mood disorders increased with burn extent. Treatment costs (mean USD-equivalents ∼$48,977/patient, ∼$1192/%TBSA) increased with burn severity; however, the highest %TBSA, %STSG and f{SASG} categories accounted for <10% of total costs, whereas TBSA 41-80% accounted for 73.2%.

CONCLUSIONS

Besides %TBSA, skin-graft requirements and burn scar contractures are complementary determinants of medium/long-term outcomes. We recommend further elucidation of factors that influence burn survivors' recovery, long-term physical and mental well-being, and quality of life.

Association of Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors and Angiotensin Receptor Blockers with the Risk of Hospitalization and Death in Hypertensive Patients with Coronavirus Disease-19

BACKGROUND

Whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) Inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) mitigate or exacerbate SARS-CoV-2 infection remains uncertain. In a national study, we evaluated the association of ACE inhibitors and ARB with coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) hospitalization and mortality among individuals with hypertension.

METHODS

Among Medicare Advantage and commercially insured individuals, we identified 2,263 people with hypertension, receiving ≥1 antihypertensive agents, and who had a positive outpatient SARS-CoV-2 test (outpatient cohort). In a propensity score-matched analysis, we determined the association of ACE inhibitors and ARBs with the risk of hospitalization for COVID-19. In a second study of 7,933 individuals with hypertension who were hospitalized with COVID-19 (inpatient cohort), we tested the association of these medications with in-hospital mortality. We stratified all our assessments by insurance groups.

RESULTS

Among individuals in the outpatient and inpatient cohorts, 31.9% and 29.8%, respectively, used ACE inhibitors and 32.3% and 28.1% used ARBs. In the outpatient study, over a median 30.0 (19.0 - 40.0) days after testing positive, 12.7% were hospitalized for COVID-19. In propensity score-matched analyses, neither ACE inhibitors (HR, 0.77 [0.53, 1.13], P = 0.18), nor ARBs (HR, 0.88 [0.61, 1.26], P = 0.48), were significantly associated with risk of hospitalization. In analyses stratified by insurance group, ACE inhibitors, but not ARBs, were associated with a significant lower risk of hospitalization in the Medicare group (HR, 0.61 [0.41, 0.93], P = 0.02), but not the commercially insured group (HR: 2.14 [0.82, 5.60], P = 0.12; P-interaction 0.09). In the inpatient study, 14.2% died, 59.5% survived to discharge, and 26.3% had an ongoing hospitalization. In propensity score-matched analyses, neither use of ACE inhibitor (0.97 [0.81, 1.16]; P = 0.74) nor ARB (1.15 [0.95, 1.38]; P = 0.15) was associated with risk of in-hospital mortality, in total or in the stratified analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of ACE inhibitors and ARBs was not associated with the risk of hospitalization or mortality among those infected with SARS-CoV-2. However, there was a nearly 40% lower risk of hospitalization with the use of ACE inhibitors in the Medicare population. This finding merits a clinical trial to evaluate the potential role of ACE inhibitors in reducing the risk of hospitalization among older individuals, who are at an elevated risk of adverse outcomes with the infection.

Initial management of severe burn injury

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Patients with severe burn injuries pose significant challenges for the intensivist. Though average burn sizes have decreased over time, severe burn injuries involving greater than 20% of the total body surface area still occur. Verified burn centers are limited, making the management of severely burn injured patients at nonspecialized ICUs likely. Current practices in burn care have increased survivability even from massive burns. It is important for intensivists to be aware of the unique complications and therapeutic options in burn critical care management. This review critically discusses current practices and recently published data regarding the evaluation and management of severe burn injury.

RECENT FINDINGS

Burn patients have long, complex ICU stays with accompanying multiorgan dysfunction. Recent advances in burn intensive care have focused on acute respiratory distress syndrome from inhalation injury, acute kidney injury (AKI), and transfusion, resulting in new strategies for organ failure, including renal replacement therapy and extracorporeal life support.

SUMMARY

Initial evaluation and treatment of acute severe burn injury remains an ongoing area of study. This manuscript reviews current practices and considerations in the acute management of the severely burn injured patient.

Clinical patterns and early outcomes of burn injuries in patients admitted at the Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital in Eldoret, Western Kenya

BACKGROUND

Burns are the fourth most common type of trauma worldwide and a major cause of mortality and disability in developing countries. Although burns are common in Kenya, the mortality and morbidity patterns are yet to be well studied and documented comprehensively.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate burn clinical patterns, early outcomes and their associations among patients admitted with burn injuries at Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital (MTRH).

METHODS

A cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted at MTRH between January 2016 and June 2017. A total of 189 patients admitted to the hospital with burns were recruited into the study. An interviewer-administered structured questionnaire and chart reviews were used to collect data on sociodemographic variables, burn clinical characteristics and early burn outcomes. Associations between patient characteristics and early burn outcomes were assessed by multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

Of the 182 burn patients whose data was analyzed, the median age was 2.4 years (IQR = 5.8) years and 149 (82%) were children below 18 years. Majority (76%) of burns were due to scalds. The commonest burn locations were the trunk and upper limbs (56%). Only 40% of patients received prehospital intervention. The median Total Burn Surface Area (TBSA) was 14.5% and 74% of the patients had 2nd degree burns. The median length of hospital stay was 16 days (IQR = 28) and commonest complication was wound infection. Proportion of deaths due to burns accounted for 9.3% of the patients. A TBSA of 20%-30% (p = 0.01) was associated with presence of burn complications while a TBSA of >10% (p = 0.03) and time from burn to admission (p = 0.03) were associated with the length of hospital stay.

CONCLUSIONS

In our study, death was likely to occur in one in ten patients admitted with burns and TBSA was a predictor of presence of burn complications and length of hospital stay. There is a need for continued health education of the public on fire safety within the home environment for children and other vulnerable persons. Timely hospital intervention would also reduce burn complications as well as length of hospital stay.

A Critical Update of the Assessment and Acute Management of Patients with Severe Burns

Significance: Burns are debilitating, life threatening, and difficult to assess and manage. Recent advances in assessment and management have occurred since a comprehensive review of the care of patients with severe burns was last published, which may influence research and clinical practice. Recent Advances: Recent advances have occurred in the understanding of burn pathophysiology, which has led to the identification of potential biomarkers of burn severity, such as protein C. There is new evidence about the potential superiority of natural colloids over crystalloids during fluid resuscitation, and new evidence about components of initial and perioperative management, including an improved understanding of pain following burns. Critical Issues: The limitations of the clinical examination highlight the need for imaging and biomarkers to assist in estimations of burn severity. Fluid resuscitation reduces mortality, although there is conjecture over the ideal method. The subsequent perioperative period is associated with significant morbidity and the evidence for preventing and treating pain, infection, and fluid overload while maximizing wound healing potential is described. Future Directions: Promising developments are ongoing in imaging technology, histopathology, biomarkers, and wound healing adjuncts such as hyperbaric oxygen therapy, topical negative pressure therapy, stem cell treatments, and skin substitutes. The greatest benefit from further research on management of patients with burns would most likely be derived from the elucidation of optimal fluid resuscitation protocols, pain management protocols, and surgical techniques from randomized controlled trials.

A 19 year population-based cohort study analysing reoperation for recurrence following laparoscopic and open inguinal hernia repairs

Introduction

Laparoscopic (LHR) and open (OHR) inguinal hernia repairs are both used to treat primary herniae. This study analyses the rates of operation for recurrence after laparoscopic and open inguinal hernia repair, at a population level, while considering competing risks, such as death and other operative interventions.

Methods

This is a population cohort study in Scotland. All adult patients who had a primary inguinal hernia repair in Scotland between 01/04/1996 and 01/01/2015 were included. The main outcome was recurrent operations. Cumulative incidence functions (CIF) were calculated for competing risks of death. A cox proportional hazards regression model was used to control for confounders of age, gender, bilateral herniae, deprivation and year of procedure.

Results

Of 88,590 patients, there were 10,145 LHR and 78,445 OHR. Recurrent operations were required in 1397 (1.8%) OHR and 362 (3.6%). LHR had greater hazard of recurrence than OHR (HR 1.83, 95% CI 1.61–2.08, p < 0.001). Faster time to recurrence was also associated with being older (HR for one year increase: 1.010, 95% CI 1.007–1.013, p < 0.001), being more affluent (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.01–1.38, p = 0.04) and having a bilateral index operation (HR 2.53, 95% CI 2.22–2.88, p < 0.001).

Conclusions

LHR is becoming more popular in Scotland over the past 2 decades. However, when other key confounding factors are controlled, it is associated with a higher recurrence rate.

Factors affecting length of stay among pediatric and adult patients admitted to the Lebanese Burn Centre: a retrospective study

Burn injuries are serious lesions requiring specialized medical care, and are associated with prolonged length of hospital stay (LOS). This study aims to elucidate the epidemiological and clinical factors affecting the LOS of pediatric and adult patients with burn wounds. A single-centre retrospective study was conducted at the Hopital Libanais Geitawi Burn Centre in Lebanon. Medical records of patients admitted to the centre between January 2014 and December 2018 were retrieved. Epidemiological and clinical data, such as age, gender, LOS, co-morbidities, and clinical burn and operative characteristics were collected and subjected to statistical analysis. A total of 321 adult and 154 pediatric patients met the inclusion criteria. Mean LOS in the total population was 23.58 days. Univariate analysis revealed inconsistent correlations between the studied factors and the LOS of pediatric and adult patients. Factors positively affecting both populations were: undergoing an operation, number of operations, burn degree, infection, blood transfusion, and need for burn excision and grafting. Additionally, among pediatric patients LOS significantly increased with age, total body surface area (TBSA) burn wound, cause of burn, sepsis, wound dressing under anaesthesia, and escharotomy. On the other hand, female gender and fever were significant additional positive influencers of adult LOS. Multivariate analysis showed that both pediatric and adult LOS was significantly associated to number of operations, need for burn excision and skin grafting, and receiving a blood transfusion. Adult LOS was further affected by mechanical ventilation, infection and age. Our study demonstrated the differential influence of epidemiological and clinical factors among adult and pediatric populations, which allows better prediction of LOS and management of patients with burn injuries.

Analysis of factors impacting length of stay in thermal and inhalation injury

OBJECTIVES

Several studies have analyzed single or combinations of variables for impact on length of stay (LOS) in thermally-injured patients. The objective of this study was to evaluate a multitude of established variables and potentially identify novel variables associated with LOS in a single study.

METHODS

This two-year, retrospective study included all patients admitted to the burn center between January 2015 and December 2016. Exclusions included death during admission, lack of thermal or inhalation injury, age less than 18 years, readmission(s), and if pregnant or incarcerated. Baseline demographics and pertinent data were collected using electronic medical records. Regression analysis was used to determine the most predictive variables.

RESULTS

Six hundred twenty-nine patients were admitted during the inclusion period and 354 patients remained for analysis after exclusion. Univariable analysis revealed 32 variables significantly associated with LOS. Using multivariable regression, the best-fit baseline demographic model included: percent total body surface area (TBSA) injured, lower/middle socioeconomic status, clotting disorders, anemia, admission serum creatinine, and percent third degree injured (r² = 0.557). The best-fit combined model (incorporating baseline demographics and early in-hospital variables) included: acute kidney injury, infection and received vasopressor(s), percent TBSA injured, admission serum ethanol level, maximum C-reactive protein, and maximum total bilirubin (r² = 0.828).

CONCLUSIONS

There are multiple factors associated with the increased LOS seen in patients with thermal and inhalation injury. This study confirmed and identified novel factors not previously discussed in the literature that were significantly associated with LOS. Expansion of the data submitted to the National Burn Repository and the Burn Quality Improvement Program may be warranted. This study confirms claims from previous studies on inadequacy of current data submitted for benchmarking and under-reimbursement for the care of such a complex population.

Estimating neonatal length of stay for babies born very preterm

OBJECTIVE

To predict length of stay in neonatal care for all admissions of very preterm singleton babies.

SETTING

All neonatal units in England.

PATIENTS

Singleton babies born at 24-31 weeks gestational age from 2011 to 2014. Data were extracted from the National Neonatal Research Database.

METHODS

Competing risks methods were used to investigate the competing outcomes of death in neonatal care or discharge from the neonatal unit. The occurrence of one event prevents the other from occurring. This approach can be used to estimate the percentage of babies alive, or who have been discharged, over time.

RESULTS

A total of 20 571 very preterm babies were included. In the competing risks model, gestational age was adjusted for as a time-varying covariate, allowing the difference between weeks of gestational age to vary over time. The predicted percentage of death or discharge from the neonatal unit were estimated and presented graphically by week of gestational age. From these percentages, estimates of length of stay are provided as the number of days following birth and corrected gestational age at discharge.

CONCLUSIONS

These results can be used in the counselling of parents about length of stay and the risk of mortality.

The Frequency and Reason For Amputations in Electrically Burned Pediatric Patients

Electrical injuries induce substantial morbidity and mortality. Amputations are often necessary to enable survival and based on tissue nonviability, development of life-threatening infection, or expected nonfunctional outcome. They analyzed occurrence and type of amputations in their institution for electrical and nonelectrical pediatric burns and the number of reconstructive operations. Patients who underwent any amputation between 1999 and 2017 were identified. Patients with electrical burns (EB) were matched regarding age, sex, and percent total body surface area (%TBSA) burned to patients with nonelectrical burns (NEB). Both groups (n = 35 EB, n = 70 NEB) were comparable regarding age (EB, 11.6 ± 4.5 years; NEB, 11.1 ± 4.5 years, P = .550) and %TBSA (36.7 ± 15.4% and 37.7 ± 12.9%, P = .738). Major amputations (above wrist or ankle) were performed in 77% of EB vs 31% of NEB (P < .001). Amputations above knee or elbow were performed in 13 (37.1%) vs two patients (2.9%, P < .001). Eight (22.9%) vs six patients (8.6%) underwent combination of two or more major amputations (P = .042). In both groups, most amputations were performed for functional reasons. Length of stay was shorter in EB group (33 ± 27 vs 47 ± 38 days, P = .040). EB patients underwent 9.9 ± 7.1 total operations compared with 14.4 ± 5.1 operations (P < .001). Of these, 6.5 ± 3.6 and 7.9 ± 3.3 (P = .023) were performed during acute stay and 3.3 ± 4.8 and 6.5 ± 3.5 after acute stay (P < .001), respectively. Mortality was comparable. EB were associated with larger extent of limb loss and more major amputations than NEB with amputations. They furthermore required a smaller number of reconstructive procedures. EB require extra attention of caregivers, because of their extensive tissue damage.

Individual and network characteristic associated with hospital-acquired Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus

BACKGROUND

During outbreaks of infectious diseases, transmission of the pathogen can form networks of infected individuals connected either directly or indirectly.

METHODS

Network centrality metrics were used to characterize hospital-acquired Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (HA-MERS) outbreaks in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia between 2012 and 2016. Covariate-adjusted multivariable logistic regression models were applied to assess the effect of individual level risk factors and network level metrics associated with increase in length of hospital stay and risk of deaths from MERS.

RESULTS

About 27% of MERS cases were hospital acquired during the study period. The median age of healthcare workers and hospitalized patients were 35 years and 63 years, respectively, Although HA-MERS were more connected, we found no significant difference in degree centrality metrics between HA-MERS and non-HA-MERS cases. Pre-existing medical conditions (adjusted Odds ratio (aOR)=2.43, 95% confidence interval: (CI) [1.11-5.33]) and hospitalized patients (aOR=29.99, 95% CI [1.80-48.65]) were the strongest risk predictors of death from MERS. The risk of death associated with 1-day increased length of stay was significantly higher for patients with comorbidities.

CONCLUSION

Our investigation also revealed that patients with an HA-MERS infection experienced a significantly longer hospital stay and were more likely to die from the disease. Healthcare worker should be reminded of their potential role as hubs for pathogens because of their proximity to and regular interaction with infected patients. On the other hand, this study has shown that while healthcare workers acted as epidemic attenuators, hospitalized patients played the role of an epidemic amplifier.

A Competing-Risk Approach for Modeling Length of Stay in Severe Malaria Patients in South-East Asia and the Implications for Planning of Hospital Services

Background

Management of severe malaria with limited resources requires comprehensive planning. Expected length of stay (LOS) and the factors influencing it are useful in the planning and optimisation of service delivery.

Methods

A secondary, competing-risk approach to survival analysis was performed for 1217 adult severe malaria patients from the South-East Asia Quinine Artesunate Malaria Trial.

Results

Twenty percent of patients died; 95.4% within 7 days compared to 70.3% of those who were discharged. Median time to discharge was 6 days. Compared to quinine, artesunate increased discharge incidence (subdistribution-Hazard ratio, 1.24; [95% confidence interval 1.09-1.40]; P = .001) and decreased incidence of death (0.60; [0.46-0.80]; P < .001). Low Glasgow coma scale (discharge, 1.08 [1.06-1.11], P < .001; death, 0.85 [0.82-0.89], P < .001), high blood urea-nitrogen (discharge, 0.99 [0.99-0.995], P < .001; death, 1.00 [1.00-1.01], P = .012), acidotic base-excess (discharge, 1.05 [1.03-1.06], P < .001; death, 0.90 [0.88-0.93], P < .001), and development of shock (discharge, 0.25 [0.13-0.47], P < .001; death, 2.14 [1.46-3.12], P < .001), or coma (discharge, 0.46 [0.32-0.65], P < .001; death, 2.30 [1.58-3.36], P < .001) decreased cumulative incidence of discharge and increased incidence of death. Conventional Kaplan-Meier survival analysis overestimated cumulative incidence compared to competing-risk model.

Conclusions

Clinical factors on admission and during hospitalisation influence LOS in severe malaria, presenting targets to improve health and service efficiency. Artesunate has the potential to increase LOS, which should be accounted for when planning services. In-hospital death is a competing risk for discharge; an important consideration in LOS models to reduce overestimation of risk and misrepresentation of associations.

Contributors to the length-of-stay trajectory in burn-injured patients

OBJECTIVES

Burn patients have a highly variable length-of-stay (LOS) due to the complexity of the injury itself. The LOS for burn patients is estimated as one day per percent total body surface area (TBSA) burn. To focus care expectation and prognosis we aimed to identify key factors that contribute to prolonged LOS.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort-study (2006-2016) in an adult burn-centre that included patients with ≥10% TBSA burn. Patients were stratified into expected-LOS (<2 days LOS/%TBSA) and longer-than-expected-LOS (≥2 days LOS/%TBSA). We assessed demographics, comorbidities, and in-hospital complications. Logistic regression and propensity matching was utilized.

RESULTS

Of the 583 total patients, 477 had an expected-LOS whereas 106 a longer-than-expected-LOS. Non-modifiable factors such as age, 3rd degree TBSA%, inhalation injuries and comorbidities were greater in the exceeded LOS patients. Subsequent matched analysis revealed factors like number of procedures performed, days ventilated and in-hospital complications (bacteremia, pneumonia, sepsis, graft loss, and respiratory failure) were significantly increased in the longer-than-expected-LOS group.

CONCLUSIONS

Progress has been made to update the conventional one day/%TBSA to better aid health care providers in giving appropriate outcomes for patients and their families and to supply intensive care units with valuable data to assess quality of care and to improve patient prognosis.

Evaluation of prognostic factors affecting lenght of stay in hospital and mortality rates in acute burn patients

Burns are considered mostly a serious illness with devastating consequences and prolonged length of hospital stay. Moreover, burns are among the traumatic lesions with the highest costs for care due to their hospitalization time, treatment required and the need for rehabilitation therapy. This study aims to evaluate the factors affecting length of hospital stay and mortality rates in acute burn patients. The study was conducted on 82 patients who presented with acute burn and were admitted to the Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery Department Burn Unit, Tanta University Hospital, in the period from June 2016 to June 2017. A prospective study was carried out using the data of acutely burned patients, and a statistical analysis conducted with the data collected on different factors affecting burn patient length of hospital stay and mortality. The mean age of our patients was 16.5 years, mean LOS was 24.23 days and mortality rate was 9.8% of the total admitted cases, with half of the cases with inhalation injury dying in hospital. The most influencing factors on prediction of length of hospital stay were: incidence of infection, wound depth, TBSA% and inhalation injury. The most influencing factors on patient mortality were: TBSA%, age of the patient, cause of burn and inhalation injury, therefore these factors should be carefully evaluated in every burn patient.

Ubiquitin Urine Levels in Burn Patients

The objective of this study was to determine whether urine ubiquitin levels are elevated after burns and to assess whether urine ubiquitin could be useful as a noninvasive biomarker for burn patients. Forty burn patients (%TBSA: 20 ± 22; modified Baux scores: 73 ± 26) were included (control: 11 volunteers). Urine was collected in 2-hour intervals for 72 hours, followed by 12-hour intervals until discharge from the intensive care unit. Ubiquitin concentrations were analyzed by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay and Western blot. Total protein was determined with a Bradford assay. Patient characteristics and clinical parameters were documented. Urine ubiquitin concentrations, renal ubiquitin excretion, and excretion rates were correlated with patient characteristics and outcomes. Initial urine ubiquitin concentrations were 362 ± 575 ng/ml in patients and 14 ± 18 ng/ml in volunteers (P < .01). Renal ubiquitin excretion on day 1 was 292.6 ± 510.8 μg/24 hr and 21 ± 27 μg/24 hr in volunteers (P < .01). Initial ubiquitin concentrations correlated with modified Baux scores (r = .46; P = .02). Ubiquitin levels peaked at day 6 postburn, whereas total protein concentrations and serum creatinine levels remained within the normal range. Total renal ubiquitin excretion and excretion rates were higher in patients with %TBSA ≥20 than with %TBSA <20, in patients who developed sepsis/multiple organ failure than in patients without these complications and in nonsurvivors vs survivors. These data suggest that ubiquitin urine levels are significantly increased after burns. Renal ubiquitin excretion and/or excretion rates are associated with %TBSA, sepsis/multiple organ failure, and mortality. Although these findings may explain previous correlations between systemic ubiquitin levels and outcomes after burns, the large variability of ubiquitin urine levels suggests that urine ubiquitin will not be useful as a noninvasive disease biomarker.

Is Pre-Hospital CPR a Risk Factor for Early Death in Patients Transferred to an Adult Burn Center?

BACKGROUND

Burn patients who require CPR before admission to a burn center are anecdotally known to suffer higher mortality than those who do not require pre-hospital CPR.

STUDY DESIGN

A retrospective chart review identified adult patients admitted to our burn center between 2013 and 2015. Included patients met 1 or both of the following criteria: 20% or more total body surface area burned and need for intubation before admission to our facility. We sought to identify predictors of early death, late death, and survival among burn patients who underwent CPR before admission.

RESULTS

Of the 80 patients meeting inclusion criteria, 17.5% underwent CPR before arrival at our facility. Seventy-nine percent of these died, compared with 29% of the patients who did not require CPR (p = 0.0005). Seventy-one percent of CPR patients died within 48 hours of admission, compared with 8% of non-CPR patients (p < 0.0001). The major predictor of death vs survival after CPR was lower initial arterial pH.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients who undergo CPR before transfer to a burn center are at high risk for early death. Predictors of death and early death after CPR may include elevated initial lactate and lower initial arterial pH.