Using multivariate adaptive regression splines to estimate subadult age from diaphyseal dimensions

An investigation of the relationship between long bone measurements and stature: Implications for estimating skeletal stature in subadults

The present study introduces new regression formulae that address several challenges of current subadult stature estimation methods by 1) using a large, contemporary, cross-sectional sample of subadult skeletal remains; 2) generating regression models using both lengths and breadths; 3) utilizing both linear and nonlinear regression models to accommodate the nonlinear shape of long bone growth; and 4) providing usable prediction intervals for estimating stature. Eighteen long bone measurements, stature, and age were collected from computed tomography images for a sample of individuals (n = 990) between birth and 20 years from the United States. The bivariate relationship between long bone measurements and stature was modeled using linear and nonlinear methods on an 80% training sample and evaluated on a 20% testing sample. Equations were generated using pooled-sex samples. Goodness of fit was evaluated using Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests and mean absolute deviation (MAD). Accuracy and precision were quantified using percent testing accuracy and Bland-Altman plots. In total, 38 stature estimation equations were created and evaluated, all achieving testing accuracies greater than 90%. Nonlinear models generated better fits compared to linear counterparts and generally produced smaller MAD (3.65 - 15.90cm). Length models generally performed better than breadth models, and a mixture of linear and nonlinear methods resulted in highest testing accuracies. Model performance was not biased by sex, age, or measurement type. A freely available, online graphical user interface is provided for immediate use of the models by practitioners in forensic anthropology and will be expanded to include bioarchaeological contexts in the future.

Pre-Fusion Shape Changes of Humeral Metaphyseal Surfaces: A New Method for Assessing Maturity and Age in Non-Adult Skeletal Individuals

OBJECTIVES

The current research delves into the use of 3D geometric morphometric for assessing shifts in maturity within both the proximal and distal humeral metaphyses. It mainly focuses on establishing correlations between these shifts and the shape changes observed in the corresponding epiphyses established through radiographic imaging.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The total sample comprises 120 right-side proximal humeral metaphyses and 91 right-side distal humeral metaphyses. The entire sample was categorized into four maturity groups for the humeral distal metaphysis and five maturity groups for the humeral proximal metaphysis based on the appearance and subsequent changes in shape and size. All humeri were scanned using 3D surface scanning devices. Two different 3D template configurations were created to capture the shape changes during the development of the proximal and distal metaphyses. We conducted an analysis of shape (Procrustes shape coordinates) and an analysis on the form space in order to assess both maturity changes of humeral metaphyses and their interrelationship with size.

RESULTS

The shape changes explained by PC1 are crucial in establishing the maturational sequence in both the distal and proximal metaphyses. These shape changes reflect the appearance and subsequent changes in shape and size of their corresponding epiphyses.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

There is a considerable overlap among different maturity groups related to the gradual nature of the maturational process. However, shape changes in proximal and distal humeral metaphyses are suitable to assess maturity in skeletal specimens.

Updated study of adult and subadult pectoral girdle bones from Sima de los Huesos site (Sierra de Atapuerca, Burgos, Spain). Anatomical and age estimation keys

Here we present an updated inventory and study of pectoral girdle remains recovered from the Sima de los Huesos (SH) site. Here, we describe the key morphological traits of adults and, for the first time, subadult specimens. Because morphological traits can change with age, we also discuss some shortcomings related to age estimation in postcranial fossil specimens. Adult clavicles from the SH are long with a low robusticity index and marked curvatures in the superior view. Among these traits, only extreme clavicular length seems to characterize subadult individuals. Neandertals share all these traits. In the case of the scapula, the SH specimens share a relatively long and narrow glenoid fossa with Neandertals. This trait is also present in subadult individuals. Additionally, most specimens from SH, adults, and subadults showed a dorsal axillary sulcus on the scapular lateral border, a trait also present in most adult and subadult Neandertals. These traits in adult and subadult specimens supports substantial genetic control for many of them in both human species.

Violence against children: A review of cases at a forensic anthropology unit, Johannesburg, South Africa

South Africa is experiencing a scourge of violence against women and children, with alarming levels of violence, and as such, juvenile cases are sometimes encountered in a forensic anthropological setting. The aim of this research was to assess the cases of juveniles (under 20 years) presenting at the Human Variation and Identification Research Unit (HVIRU) for a 6-year period (2016-2022), in order to assess patterns and types of cases referred. A total of 19 cases were assessed, of which 10 were 16-20 years old, 3 between the ages of 5 and 15 years and 6 less than 5 years old at the time of death. Of the 14 children with known sex, 12 were female with features suggesting that they fell prey to sexual violence. Many of the individuals were either known (and referred for trauma analysis) or identified following investigation. Of the 19 juveniles, 11 (58 %) had evidence of perimortem trauma (sharp and/or blunt), attesting to the violent nature of their deaths. Two cases had both sharp and blunt force trauma, of which one is a possible case of dismemberment. The remains of two individuals showed signs of perimortem burning, which may or may not be related to the cause of death. Three individuals had signs of antemortem (healed) trauma, which may suggest a longer period of abuse. Five of the individuals showed signs of disease - two had cribra orbitalia, while two others had various porous lesions indicative of chronic disease or malnutrition. One individual had advanced osteomyelitis, suggesting a natural cause of death. Some of these cases had unusual trauma and pathology, highlighting the contribution of forensic anthropologists.

Variation in ontogenetic trajectories of limb dimensions in humans is attributable to both climatic effects and neutral evolution

Previous studies showed that there is variation in ontogenetic trajectories of human limb dimensions and proportions. However, little is known about the evolutionary significance of this variation. This study used a global sample of modern human immature long bone measurements and a multivariate linear mixed-effects model to study 1) whether the variation in ontogenetic trajectories of limb dimensions is consistent with ecogeographic predictions and 2) the effects of different evolutionary forces on the variation in ontogenetic trajectories. We found that genetic relatedness arising from neutral (nonselective) evolution, allometric variation associated with the change in size, and directional effects from climate all contributed to the variation in ontogenetic trajectories of all major long bone dimensions in modern humans. After accounting for the effects of neutral evolution and holding other effects considered in the current study constant, extreme temperatures have weak, positive associations with diaphyseal length and breadth measurements, while mean temperature shows negative associations with diaphyseal dimensions. The association with extreme temperatures fits the expectations of ecogeographic rules, while the association with mean temperature may explain the observed among-group variation in intralimb indices. The association with climate is present throughout ontogeny, suggesting an explanation of adaptation by natural selection as the most likely cause. On the other hand, genetic relatedness among groups, as structured by neutral evolutionary factors, is an important consideration when interpreting skeletal morphology, even for nonadult individuals.

Mixed cumulative probit: a multivariate generalization of transition analysis that accommodates variation in the shape, spread and structure of data

Biological data are frequently nonlinear, heteroscedastic and conditionally dependent, and often researchers deal with missing data. To account for characteristics common in biological data in one algorithm, we developed the mixed cumulative probit (MCP), a novel latent trait model that is a formal generalization of the cumulative probit model usually used in transition analysis. Specifically, the MCP accommodates heteroscedasticity, mixtures of ordinal and continuous variables, missing values, conditional dependence and alternative specifications of the mean response and noise response. Cross-validation selects the best model parameters (mean response and the noise response for simple models, as well as conditional dependence for multivariate models), and the Kullback-Leibler divergence evaluates information gain during posterior inference to quantify mis-specified models (conditionally dependent versus conditionally independent). Two continuous and four ordinal skeletal and dental variables collected from 1296 individuals (aged birth to 22 years) from the Subadult Virtual Anthropology Database are used to introduce and demonstrate the algorithm. In addition to describing the features of the MCP, we provide material to help fit novel datasets using the MCP. The flexible, general formulation with model selection provides a process to robustly identify the modelling assumptions that are best suited for the data at hand.

The development of dissolved oxygen forecast model using hybrid machine learning algorithm with hydro-meteorological variables

Dissolved oxygen (DO) forecasting is essential for aquatic managers responsible for maintaining ecosystem health and the management of water bodies affected by water quality parameters. This paper aims to forecast dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration using a multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) hybrid model coupled with maximum overlap discrete wavelet transformation (MODWT) as a feature decomposition approach for Surma River water using a set of water quality hydro-meteorological variables. The proposed hybrid model is compared with numerous machine learning methods, namely Bayesian ridge regression (BNR), k-nearest neighbourhood (KNN), kernel ridge regression (KRR), random forest (RF), and support vector regression (SVR). The investigational results show that the proposed model of MODWT-MARS has a better prediction than the comparing benchmark models and individual standalone counter parts. The result shows that the hybrid algorithms (i.e. MODWT-MARS) outperformed the other models (r = 0.981, WI = 0.990, RMAE = 2.47%, and MAE = 0.089). This hybrid method may serve to forecast water quality variables with fewer predictor variables.

The relationship between bipedalism and growth: A metric assessment in a documented modern skeletal collection (Certosa Collection, Bologna, Italy)

OBJECTIVES

Long bone variations during growth are susceptible to the combined action of nutritional, hormonal, and genetic factors that may modulate the mechanical forces acting upon growing individuals as they progressively acquire a mature gait. In this work, we explore diaphyseal length and breadth variations of tibia and fibula during ontogeny (a) to test the presence of changes in relation to early toddling, and (b) to further our understanding of developmental patterns in relation to sex.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Lengths, breadths, and indices were analyzed on right and left leg bones of 68 subadult individuals (Human Identified Skeletal Collection of the University of Bologna, Italy). Analyses included intersex and age classes (1, 0-1 year; 2, 1.1-3 years; 3, 3.1-6 years) comparisons, linear regressions with age and assessment of correlation among tibial and fibular measurements, as well as principal component analysis.

RESULTS

A significant difference emerged among age class 1 and the others. Age class 1 and 3 differ between them, while age class 2 overlaps with the others. No sex dimorphism was detected. All measurements were strongly correlated with age. Tibial and fibular measurements correlated with each other.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results relate the progressive emergence of toddling attempts in growing individuals at the end of the first year of age. No significant sex differences were found, suggesting that tibial and fibula growth might diverge between sexes in later childhood. We provide quantitative data regarding tibial and fibular linear growth and its timing in a modern documented osteological sample from Italy.

A growth area: A review of the value of clinical studies of child growth for palaeopathology

Studies of living children demonstrate that early life stress impacts linear growth outcomes. Stresses affecting linear growth may also impact later life health outcomes, including increased cardiometabolic disease risk. Palaeopathologists also assess the growth of children recovered from bioarchaeological contexts. Early life stresses are inferred to affect linear growth outcomes, and measurements of skeletal linear dimensions alongside other bioarchaeological information may indicate the types of challenges faced by past groups. In clinical settings, the impacts of stress on growing children are typically measured by examining height. Palaeopathologists are limited to examining bone dimensions directly and must grapple with incomplete pictures of childhood experiences that may affect growth. Palaeopathologists may use clinical growth studies to inform observations among past children; however, there may be issues with this approach. Here, we review the relationship between contemporary and palaeopathological studies of child and adolescent growth. We identify approaches to help bridge the gap between palaeopathological and biomedical growth studies. We advocate for: the creation of bone-specific growth reference information using medical imaging and greater examination of limb proportions; the inclusion of children from different global regions and life circumstances in contemporary bone growth studies; and greater collaboration and dialogue between palaeopathologists and clinicians as new studies are designed to assess linear growth past and present. We advocate for building stronger bridges between these fields to improve interpretations of growth patterns across human history and to potentially improve interventions for children living and growing today.

Interpreting error in the estimation of skeletal growth profiles from past populations: An example demonstrating skeletal growth in historic African American communities

OBJECTIVES

The study of growth in the past is a critical component of bioarcheological analyses. However, our understanding of growth in the past is subject to a number of methodological challenges. This study aims to model the skeletal growth of past populations by considering the challenges associated with the data collection process and the challenges associated with the age estimation procedures.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We use skeletal remains from two historic African American cemeteries in the American South to model femoral diaphyseal length-for-age. We estimate the age of each individual using dental development techniques and present growth curves as both a product of the maximum likelihood (MLE) age estimate and the estimated posterior age distribution. Growth was compared against a reference sample from the University of Colorado Child Research Council Study.

RESULTS

The results of our analyses showed that femoral diaphyseal length in two historic African American communities is small-for-estimated age as compared to a modern reference sample. However, the magnitude and characterization of this difference is variable when taking into account the broader posterior age distribution.

DISCUSSION

Both samples may be small-for-age due to physiological stress associated with racism, inequality, and the compounding effects of early urbanization. However, the interpretation of growth in the past is muddled when considering the relationship between the study sample and the reference sample, when accounting for uncertainty in the age estimation procedure, and the error-inducing steps taken during the data collection process. Future interpretation of skeletal growth in the past must include a full account of the possible sources of error in order to present an accurate representation of growth.

Conditional independence assumption and appropriate number of stages in dental developmental age estimation

When estimating the age of an individual it is critical that 1) age ranges are as narrow as possible while still capturing the true age of the individual with an acceptable frequency, and 2) this frequency is known. When multiple traits are used to produce a single age estimate, the simplest practice is to assume that the traits are conditionally independent from one another given age. Unfortunately, if the traits are correlated once the effect of age is accounted for, the resulting age intervals will be too narrow. The frequency at which the age interval captures the true age of the individual will be decreased below the expected value to some unknown degree. It is therefore critical that age estimation methods that include multiple traits incorporate the possible correlations between them. Moorrees et al. (1963) [1] scores of the permanent mandibular dentition from 2607 individuals between 2 and 23 years were used to produce and cross-validate a cumulative probit model for age estimation with an optimal number of stages for each tooth. Two correction methods for covariance of development between teeth were tested: the variance-covariance matrix for a multivariate normal, and the Boldsen et al. (2002) [2] ad-hoc method. Both correction methods successfully decreased age interval error rates from 21% to 23% in the uncorrected model to the expected value of 5%. These results demonstrate both the efficacy of these correction methods and the need to move away from assuming conditional independence in multi-trait age estimation.

A comparison of subadult skeletal and dental development based on living and deceased samples

OBJECTIVES

A fundamental assumption in biological anthropology is that living individuals will present with different growth than non-survivors of the same population. The aim is to address the question of whether growth and development data of non-survivors are reflective of the biological consequences of selective mortality and/or stress.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study compares dental development and skeletal growth collected from radiographic images of contemporary samples of living and deceased individuals from the United States (birth to 20 years) and South Africa (birth to 12 years). Further evaluation of deceased individuals is used to explore differential patterns among manners of death (MOD).

RESULTS

Results do not show any significant differences in skeletal growth or dental development between living and deceased individuals. However, in the South African deceased sample the youngest individuals exhibited substantially smaller diaphyseal lengths than the living sample, but by 2 years of age the differences were negligible. In the US sample, neither significant nor substantial differences were found in dental development or diaphyseal length according to MOD and age (>2 years of age), though some long bones in individuals <2 years of age did show significant differences. No significant differences were noted in diaphyseal length according to MOD and age in the SA sample.

DISCUSSION

The current findings refute the idea that contemporary deceased and living individuals would present with differential growth and development patterns through all of ontogeny as well as the assumptions linking short stature, poor environments, and MOD.

Maximum length of deciduous dentition as an indicator of age during the first year of life: Methodological validation in a contemporary osteological collection

Out of all the available methods for estimating age at death from immature human skeletal remains, those based on odontometric variables of deciduous dentition have proved to be one of the most accurate. The development of odontometric methods has been improved through the creation of documented human osteological collections, allowing their validation in different populations. The present study aims to test the regression equations for age estimation proposed by Liversidge et al. 1993, Irurita Olivares et al. 2014, and Cardoso et al. 2019, on the basis of the maximum length of deciduous teeth in an Argentinian sample of 35 infants of known age at death. The results showed that the absolute mean difference between estimated and chronological age was 5.76±6.33 weeks for Liversidge's method, 5.71±6.41 weeks for Irurita Olivares's method, and 6.79±5.80 for Cardoso's method. It was also found that, for Liversidge's method, the canines provided the most accurate and the least biased estimations. For Irurita Olivares's method, mandibular anterior teeth were the most accurate, while the first mandibular molars offered the least biased estimations. For Cardoso's method, the canines presented the most accurate estimations, while the lateral incisors the least biased ones. Finally, 95% confidence intervals of estimated ages were calculated for each method, finding that Irurita Olivares's method provided the most reliable age estimations when using mandibular central incisors and mandibular first molars.

A New Approach of Juvenile Age Estimation using Measurements of the Ilium and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) Models for Better Age Prediction

Juvenile age estimation methods used in forensic anthropology generally lack methodological consistency and/or statistical validity. Considering this, a standard approach using nonparametric Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) models were tested to predict age from iliac biometric variables of male and female juveniles from Marseilles, France, aged 0-12 years. Models using unidimensional (length and width) and bidimensional iliac data (module and surface) were constructed on a training sample of 176 individuals and validated on an independent test sample of 68 individuals. Results show that MARS prediction models using iliac width, module and area give overall better and statistically valid age estimates. These models integrate punctual nonlinearities of the relationship between age and osteometric variables. By constructing valid prediction intervals whose size increases with age, MARS models take into account the normal increase of individual variability. MARS models can qualify as a practical and standardized approach for juvenile age estimation.

A Reappraisal of Developing Permanent Tooth Length as an Estimate of Age in Human Immature Skeletal Remains

This study expands on existing juvenile age prediction models from tooth length by increasing sample size and using classical calibration. A sample of 178 individuals from two European known sex and age skeletal samples was used to calculate prediction formulae for each tooth for each sex separately and combined. Prediction errors, residuals, and percentage of individuals whose real age fell within the 95% prediction interval were calculated. An ANCOVA was used to test sex and sample differences. Tooth length for age does not differ between the samples except for the canine and second premolar, and no statistically significant sex differences were detected. The least prediction error was found in the incisors and the first molar, and the highest prediction error was found in the third molar. Age prediction formulae provided here can be easily used in a variety of contexts where tooth length is measured from any isolated tooth.

Population differences in the postcrania of modern South Africans and the implications for ancestry estimation

The cranium is widely recognized as the most important skeletal element to use when evaluating population differences and estimating ancestry. However, the cranium is not always intact or available for analysis, which emphasizes the need for postcranial alternatives. The purpose of this study was to quantify postcraniometric differences among South Africans that can be used to estimate ancestry. Thirty-nine standard measurements from 11 postcranial bones were collected from 360 modern black, white and coloured South Africans; the sex and ancestry distribution were equal. Group differences were explored with analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Tukey's honestly significant difference (HSD) test. Linear and flexible discriminant analysis (LDA and FDA, respectively) were conducted with bone models as well as numerous multivariate subsets to identify the model and method that yielded the highest correct classifications. Leave-one-out (LDA) and k-fold (k=10; FDA) cross-validation with equal priors were used for all models. ANOVA and Tukey's HSD results reveal statistically significant differences between at least two of the three groups for the majority of the variables, with varying degrees of group overlap. Bone models, which consisted of all measurements per bone, resulted in low accuracies that ranged from 46% to 63% (LDA) and 41% to 66% (FDA). In contrast, the multivariate subsets, which consisted of different variable combinations from all elements, achieved accuracies as high as 85% (LDA) and 87% (FDA). Thus, when using a multivariate approach, the postcranial skeleton can distinguish among three modern South African groups with high accuracy.

A method for estimating age of medieval sub-adults from infancy to adulthood based on long bone length

OBJECTIVES

To develop a series of regression equations for estimating age from length of long bones for archaeological sub-adults when aging from dental development cannot be performed. Further, to compare derived ages when using these regression equations, and two other methods.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A total of 183 skeletal sub-adults from the Danish medieval period, were aged from radiographic images. Linear regression formulae were then produced for individual bones. Age was then estimated from the femur length using three different methods: equations developed in this study, data based on a modern population (Maresh: Human growth and development (1970) pp 155-200), and, lastly, based on archeological data with known ages (Rissech et al.: Forensic Sci Int 180 (2008) 1-9). As growth of long bones is known to be non-linear it was tested if the regression model could be improved by applying a quadratic model.

RESULTS

Comparison between estimated ages revealed that the modern data result in lower estimated ages when compared to the Danish regression equations. The estimated ages using the Danish regression equations and the regression equations developed by Rissech et al. (Forensic Sci Int 180 (2007) 1-9) were very similar, if not identical. This indicates that the growth between the two archaeological populations is not that dissimilar.

DISCUSSION

This would suggest that the regression equations developed in this study may potentially be applied to archaeological material outside Denmark as well as later than the medieval period, although this would require further testing. The quadratic equations are suggested to yield more accurate ages then using simply linear regression equations.

The Danish approach to forensic age estimation in the living: how, how many and what's new? A review of cases performed in 2012

BACKGROUND

The resulting statement of forensic age estimations in the living is of great consequence for the examinees in question. Concerns have been raised about the nature of these examinations, e.g. the potentially harmful radiographic exposures, as well as the accuracy of the estimated age.

AIM

This manuscript investigates the reported age estimates performed at the Section of Forensic Pathology, Institute of Forensic Medicine, Copenhagen, in 2012.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

The results of the individual assessments, i.e. the physical examination, and the radiographic examinations of bone age and dental age, were investigated as well as the correlation between the age estimates of the two latter examinations.

RESULTS

In 139 out of the 174 statements, a conclusive chronological age estimate of at least 18 years was given. Although bone age was assessed within the dental age-range in a total of 152 out of 162 cases, some variations in the combined assessments were seen.

CONCLUSION

The current procedure is not mathematically or statistically satisfactory. Instead, the most likely age including the variation and error of the age estimate should be reported in statements. The introduction of a Bayesian approach and the use of post-mortem-imaging-based databases may be used for this purpose.

Use of a full-body digital X-ray imaging system in acute medical emergencies: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

To evaluate the available evidence for the clinical effectiveness and biohazard safety of a full-body digital X-ray imaging system (Lodox) in acute medical emergencies.

METHODS

Electronic databases (including PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library; up to January 2014) and reference lists of articles were searched. The quality of the included studies was determined, and a narrative assessment was undertaken.

RESULTS

A total of 256 articles were reviewed. Fifteen clinical studies and eight case series met the eligibility criteria. All 23 studies reporting use of a full-body X-ray imaging system in acute medical emergencies on Lodox. Based on figures in six studies comprising various evaluation methods, image quality of Lodox was mostly comparable to that of conventional X-rays and the radiation dose was considerably lower. Lodox demonstrated a sensitivity ranging from 62% to 73%, and a specificity ranging from 99% to 100% compared with CT for the evaluation of emergency patients with polytrauma, which is similar to that of conventional X-rays. Examination time using Lodox ranged from 3.5  to 13.9 min compared with 8 to 25.7 min using conventional X-rays. However, there was no evidence it significantly shortened resuscitation time or emergency department length of stay. Publication bias might have occurred; some published studies might have been influenced by conflicts of interest.

CONCLUSIONS

The Lodox machine is capable of rapidly scanning the entire body and offers an equivalent diagnostic assessment tool compared with conventional X-rays. It seems to have the potential to reduce cumulative radiation dosage for emergency patients compared with conventional X-rays. Application of Lodox might be helpful to reduce resource use and simplify care in lower-resourced areas.