Impact of lymph node ratio on survival in patients with pancreatic and periampullary cancer

Prediction of survival after pancreatoduodenectomy for distal cholangiocarcinoma: independent external validation of a prognostic model for 3-year overall survival in Sweden

OBJECTIVES

The only treatment with curative potential for distal cholangiocarcinoma (dCCA) is radical surgery which can be complemented with adjuvant chemotherapy. The aim of the present study was to perform an independent external validation of a prognostic model for 3-year overall survival based on routine clinicopathological variables for patients treated with pancreatoduodenectomy for dCCA.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All patients with a histopathological confirmed dCCA that underwent pancreatoduodenectomy in Sweden from 2009 through 2019 were identified in the Swedish National Registry for Pancreatic and Periampullary Cancer. Model performance was estimated using the C-index and calibration plots.

RESULTS

In total 220 patients were included in the study. The median survival was 33 months (IQR 26-40) and 3-year survival rate 47% (95% CI 40-53%). The prognostic model had a C-index of 0.69 (95% CI 0.62-0.72). Calibration plots revealed overestimated risk of death across risk groups in the full cohort. Calibration was good in the subgroup of patients that did not receive adjuvant treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

The prognostic model showed reasonable discriminative ability but some miscalibration likely since the effect of adjuvant treatment is not included in the model. Given that the model was developed in cohorts treated prior to the current adjuvant standard of care the model can be used to estimate baseline risk prior to risk/benefit decision for adjuvant treatment as well as stratification for clinical trials but with a risk to underestimate 3-year overall survival for patients that receive adjuvant treatment.

Prognostic efficacy of lymph node parameters in resected ampullary adenocarcinoma based on long-term follow-up data after adjuvant treatment

BACKGROUND

Lymph node (LN) metastasis is an important prognostic factor in the ampulla of Vater (AoV) adenocarcinoma. Various LN parameters have been proposed, but their prognostic efficacy has not been compared in the same population. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic values of LN parameters in AoV adenocarcinoma patients who underwent surgical resection and adjuvant treatment based on the long-term follow-up data.

METHODS

A total of 86 patients with surgically resected AoV adenocarcinoma followed by adjuvant treatment were analyzed. We evaluated the prognostic values of various LN parameters such as pathologic N stage, number of metastatic regional LN (LNN), LN ratio (LNR), and log odds of positive LNs (LODDS). Each LN parameter was separately analyzed using Cox regression models with the same confounders.

RESULTS

The median follow-up period was 69.4 months, and the median overall survival (OS) was 114 months. The median number of dissected LNs is 15, with an interquartile range of 8 to 25. In the univariable analyses, all LN parameters showed significant prognostic efficacy for OS, disease-free survival (DFS), and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS). In the multivariable Cox regression analyses, LNN ≥ 2 was a statistically significant prognostic factor for OS (hazard ratio (HR) 2.10, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.11-3.97; p = 0.022), DFS (HR 2.51, 95% CI 1.28-4.93; p = 0.007), and DMFS (HR 2.74, 95% CI 1.39-5.41; p = 0.004). LNR showed significant prognostic performance for DFS (HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.23-4.50; p = 0.010), and DMFS (HR 2.26, 95% CI 1.17-4.35; p = 0.015). N stage showed significant prognostic performance in DFS (HR 1.55 for pN1; p = 0.243 and HR 4.31 for pN2; p = 0.003), DMFS (HR 1.46 for pN1; p = 0.323 and 4.59 for pN2; p = 0.002). LODDS and the presence of LN metastasis, did not demonstrate significant prognostic value across survival outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

LN parameters showed good long-term predictive performance in AoV adenocarcinoma patients treated with curative resection and adjuvant treatments. Among LN parameters, LNN ≥ 2 showed better prognostic value than others. Further large-scale studies are needed to validate the clinical usefulness of various LN parameters.

Comparison of clinical characteristics and prognostic factors in two site-specific categories of ampullary cancer

BACKGROUND

Ampullary cancer is a relatively rare malignant tumor in the digestive system. Its incidence has increased in recent years. As for now, its biological characteristics have not been fully clarified. Recent studies have primarily focused on the histological classification and genetic changes, but there are fewer investigations into the differences among site-specific subgroups. The clinicopathological characteristics of ampullary cancer occurring in different positions have not been elucidated. Furthermore, the role of adjuvant therapy in the treatment of patients with ampullary cancer remains controversial.

AIM

To study the clinicopathological features of the two site-specific subgroups of ampullary cancer and explore the factors affecting prognosis.

METHODS

A total of 356 patients who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria were enrolled. Patients were divided into ampulla of Vater cancer (AVC) and duodenal papilla cancer (DPC) based on the gross and microscopic findings. Baseline data, admission examination results, and perioperative outcomes were collected and analyzed. The Kaplan-Meier curve was used for survival analysis. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed to explore the independent risk factors affecting the overall survival (OS) of both groups.

RESULTS

The preoperative total bilirubin level in patients with AVC was significantly higher than those with DPC (P = 0.04). The OS for patients with DPC was 58.90 ± 38.74 months, significantly longer than 44.31 ± 35.90 months for patients with AVC (P < 0.01). The independent risk factors affecting the OS of AVC included: Preoperative albumin level (P = 0.009), total bilirubin level (P = 0.017), and number of positive lymph nodes (P = 0.005). For DPC, risk factors included: Age (P = 0.004), tumor size (P = 0.023), number of positive lymph nodes (P = 0.010) and adjuvant treatment (P = 0.020). Adjuvant therapy significantly improved the OS rate of patients with DPC, but not for those with AVC.

CONCLUSION

Patients with AVC had a shorter OS compared to those with DPC. The prognosis factors and the role of adjuvant therapy of two groups were different.

Lymph node metrics following neoadjuvant therapy to refine patient selection for adjuvant chemotherapy in resected pancreatic cancer: A multi-institutional analysis

BACKGROUND

In patients with localized pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) undergoing neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) and resection, selection of adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) is typically guided by high-risk features on histopathologic examination. We evaluated the interaction between post-NAT lymph node metrics and AC receipt on survival.

METHODS

Patients who received NAT followed by pancreatectomy (2010-2020) at seven centers were reviewed. Overall survival (OS) in patients receiving AC or not was stratified by lymph node positivity (LNP) or lymph node ratio (LNR) dichotomized at 0.1. Cox models evaluated the independent association between these nodal metrics, AC receipt, and OS.

RESULTS

Of 464 patients undergoing NAT and resection, 264 (57%) received AC. Patients selected for AC were younger (median 63 vs. 67 years; p < 0.001), received shorter duration of NAT (2.8 vs. 3.2 months; p = 0.01), had fewer postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo grade > 3: 1.2% vs. 11.7%; p < 0.001), and lower rates of pathologic complete response (4% vs. 11%; p = 0.01). The median number of nodes evaluated was similar between cohorts (n = 20 in both; p = 0.9). Post-NAT LNP rates were not different, and median LNR was 0.1, in AC and non-AC cohorts. Both LNP (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.1, p < 0.001) and LNR (0 < LNR ≤ 0.1: HR: 1.98, p = 0.002; LNR > 0.1: HR 2.46, p < 0.001) were independently associated with OS on Cox modeling, although receipt of AC was not associated with improved OS (median 30.6 vs. 29.4 months; p = 0.2). In patients with LNR > 0.1, receipt of AC was associated with significantly longer OS compared to non-AC (24 vs. 20 months, respectively; p = 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

LNR following NAT, not simply nodal positivity, may be useful to refine selection of AC in resected PDAC.

Prognostic importance of margin clearance in ampullary adenocarcinoma following pancreaticoduodenectomy in a Danish population-based nationwide study

BACKGROUND

In this Danish nationwide population-based study, we evaluated the prognostically relevant minimum tumour-free margin width following pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) for ampullary adenocarcinoma (AAC) and evaluated whether certain margins hold independent prognostic information.

METHODS

We included 128 patients who underwent PD for AAC from 2015 to 2019. Clinical and pathological data including well-known prognostic factors were retrieved from the Danish Pancreatic Cancer Database. Missing data were obtained by review of pathology reports and re-microscopy of resection specimens. All PD specimens were examined using a standardised pathological protocol including multicolour inking, axial slicing and exact reporting of margin widths. The cohort was dichotomised into involved and uninvolved groups, using different margin clearance definitions (0.5-≥3.0 mm).

RESULTS

Following PD for AAC, margin clearance of ≥1 mm was independently associated with improved chance of survival compared with <1 mm (HR: 0.30, 95 % CI: 0.14-0.64 (p = 0.002)). Posterior and anterior margin widths were narrower compared with superior mesenteric artery and vein margins. Posterior margin and anterior surface had isolated prognostic significance in multivariable analysis.

CONCLUSION

Following PD for AAC, margin clearance of at least 1 mm is independently associated with improved survival. Our data further indicate that anterior surface and posterior margin hold particular prognostic value.

An autopsy case of alpha-fetoprotein-producing large duodenal adenocarcinoma

We report an autopsy case of a large duodenal adenocarcinoma that produced alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). The patient was a man in his 70s with diabetes mellitus. He presented with epigastralgia and was referred to our hospital. Upper gastrointestinal endoscopy and abdominal computed tomography revealed a large tumor of 11 cm in diameter in the descending limb of the duodenum. A tumor biopsy showed poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma. Although his carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) levels were within the normal range, his AFP levels were significantly elevated (42,078.4 ng/mL). Due to vascular invasion, curative resection was not feasible, and chemotherapy was chosen as the treatment option. After gastrojejunostomy was performed to enable oral intake, one cycle of modified leucovorin/5-fluorouracil/oxaliplatin (mFOLFOX6) therapy was administered. However, it proved ineffective, and the patient's anorexia gradually worsened. Ultimately, he succumbed to the progression of cancer cachexia. Autopsy findings revealed a 14-cm-long duodenal carcinoma primarily located in the duodenal bulb, with direct invasion into the stomach, pancreas, and liver. A pathological examination confirmed a diagnosis of poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma with AFP production. Duodenal cancer is rare, and AFP-producing duodenal cancer is even rarer, with only 21 reported cases, including our own. We present this autopsy case of AFP-producing duodenal adenocarcinoma and review the cases reported in the relevant literature.

Predictive Factors Associated With Survival in Periampullary Cancers Following Pancreaticoduodenectomy: A Retrospective Analysis

Background Periampullary cancers arise from four different anatomical sites and are in close proximity. But they have different survival outcomes. There are various clinicopathological factors associated with survival after pancreaticoduodenectomy done for periampullary cancers. So, we aimed to identify the predictive factors associated with poor survival in periampullary cancers at Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital, Kathmandu, Nepal. Methods We analyzed the medical records of patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) at Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital, Kathmandu, from April 2004 to May 2014. Demography, clinicopathological features, and survival outcomes were analyzed retrospectively. Results This study included 61 patients. The mean age of patients was 56.2 ± 14.2 years, and there was a male preponderance (M:F = 1.4). The median survival of all patients was 24 months. Non-pancreatic periampullary cancer patients had better median survival as compared to pancreatic cancer patients (24 vs. 8 months, p = 0.03). The presence of lymphovascular invasion (LVI), peripheral invasion (PNI), nodal involvement, and a higher lymph node ratio (LNR) were associated with poor median survival. However, perineural invasion was the only factor associated with poor survival in multivariate analysis. Conclusion The presence of perineural invasion is associated with poor survival outcomes in patients with periampullary cancer following pancreaticoduodenectomy. Also, carcinoma of the head of the pancreas has poor survival as compared to other periampullary cancers.

International assessment and validation of the prognostic role of lymph node ratio in patients with resected pancreatic head ductal adenocarcinoma

Background

Lymph node ratio (LNR; positive/harvested lymph nodes) was identified as overall survival predictor in several cancers, including pancreatic adenocarcinoma. It remains unclear if LNR is predictive of overall survival in pancreatic adenocarcinoma patients staged pN2. This study assessed the prognostic overall survival role of LNR in pancreatic adenocarcinoma patients in relation with lymph node involvement.

Methods

A retrospective international study in six different centers (Europe and United States) was performed. Pancreatic adenocarcinoma patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy from 2000 to 2017 were included. Patients with neoadjuvant treatment, metastases, R2 resections, or missing data regarding nodal status were excluded. Survival curves were calculated using Kaplan-Meier method and compared using log-rank test. Multivariable Cox regressions were performed to find independent overall survival predictors adjusted for potential confounders.

Results

A total of 1,327 patients were included. Lymph node involvement (pN+) was found in 1,026 patients (77%), 561 pN1 (55%) and 465 pN2 (45%). Median LNR in pN+ patients was 0.214 [interquartile range (IQR): 0.105-0.364]. On multivariable analysis, LNR was the strongest overall survival predictor in the entire cohort [hazard ratio (HR) =5.5; 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.1-9.9; P<0.001] and pN+ patients (HR =3.8; 95% CI: 2.2-6.6; P<0.001). Median overall survival was better in patients with LNR <0.225 compared to patients with LNR ≥0.225 in the entire cohort and pN+ patients. Similar results were found in pN2 patients (worse overall survival when LNR ≥0.225).

Conclusions

LNR appeared as an important prognostic factor in patients undergoing surgery for pancreatic adenocarcinoma and permitted to stratify overall survival in pN2 patients. LNR should be routinely used in complement to tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage to better predict patient prognosis.

The short- and long-term outcomes of pancreaticoduodenectomy for distal cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

The aim of the study was to calculate the short-term and long-term outcomes of curative-intent surgery in distal cholangiocarcinoma (DCC) patients to identify potential prognostic factors.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of 32 consecutive DCC patients treated with pancreaticoduodenectomy between 2009-2017. The clinicopathological and histopathological data were evaluated for prognostic factors using the univariable Cox regression analysis. The Overall Survival (OS) was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier analysis.

RESULTS

The study comprised a total of 32 patients, with a mean age of 65.8 (± 9.0) years at the time of surgery. R0 resection was achieved in 25 (86.2%) patients, 19 (65.5%) patients received adjuvant oncological therapy. The OS rates at 1, 3 and 5 years were 62.5%, 37.5% and 21.9%, respectively. The 90-day mortality was 3/32 (9.4%) accounting for one-fourth of the first-year mortality rate. The median OS was 28.5 months. The only statistically significant prognostic factor was vascular resection, which was associated with worse OS in the univariable analysis (HR: 3.644; 95%-CI: 1.179-11.216, P=0.025). An age less than 65 years, ASA grade I/II, hospital stay of fewer than 15 days, R0 resection, lymph node ratio less than 0.2 and adjuvant oncological therapy tended to be associated with better OS but without statistically significant relevance.

CONCLUSION

The main factor directly influencing the survival of DCC patients is surgical complications. Surgical mortality comprises a significant group of patients, who die in the first year following pancreaticoduodenectomy. Vascular resection is the most important negative prognostic factor for long-term survival.

The Development of a Prediction Model Based on Random Survival Forest for the Postoperative Prognosis of Pancreatic Cancer: A SEER-Based Study

Simple Summary

Surgery is the main treatment to cure pancreatic cancer (PC). However, the 5-year survival rate of surgical resection is only 10–20%. The aim of our study was to develop a prediction model with the novel machine learning algorithm random survival forest (RSF) and to offer easy-to-use prediction tools, including risk stratification and individual prognosis. The study would benefit patients and physicians in postoperative management and facilitate personalized medicine.

Abstract

Accurate prediction for the prognosis of patients with pancreatic cancer (PC) is a emerge task nowadays. We aimed to develop survival models for postoperative PC patients, based on a novel algorithm, random survival forest (RSF), traditional Cox regression and neural networks (Deepsurv), using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database. A total of 3988 patients were included in this study. Eight clinicopathological features were selected using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis and were utilized to develop the RSF model. The model was evaluated based on three dimensions: discrimination, calibration, and clinical benefit. It found that the RSF model predicted the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of the postoperative PC patients with a c-index of 0.723, which was higher than the models built by Cox regression (0.670) and Deepsurv (0.700). The Brier scores at 1, 3, and 5 years (0.188, 0.177, and 0.131) of the RSF model demonstrated the model’s favorable calibration and the decision curve analysis illustrated the model’s value of clinical implement. Moreover, the roles of the key variables were visualized in the Shapley Additive Explanations plotting. Lastly, the prediction model demonstrates value in risk stratification and individual prognosis. In this study, a high-performance prediction model for PC postoperative prognosis was developed, based on RSF The model presented significant strengths in the risk stratification and individual prognosis prediction.

Surgical treatment of duodenal adenocarcinoma: ampullary vs. non-ampullary, short- and long-term outcomes

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to evaluate symptoms, diagnostic methods, short- and long-term outcomes of surgical treatment in patients with duodenal adenocarcinoma.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A single center, retrospective, observational study of 52 consecutive patients with duodenal adenocarcinoma operated on with curative intent between 2006 - 2019. Duodenectomy as part of a hemipancreatoduodenectomy or total pancreatectomy procedure was performed for ADAC (ampullary duodenal/intestinal adenocarcinoma) or NADAC (non-ampullary duodenal adenocarcinoma).

RESULTS

Prevailing symptoms were obstructive jaundice in the ADAC group (P<0.0001) and bleeding in the NADAC group (P=0.005), with larger tumor size in patients with NADAC (P=0.001). Complication rate, morbidity and mortality were comparable. Primary total pancreatoduodenectomy predominated in the NADAC group, 16.6% vs. 2.9%, and salvage completion pancreatectomy in the ADAC group, 6% vs. 0%. Significant prognostic factors for OS were perineural invasion (P=0.006) and adjuvant chemotherapy (P=0.045) in the ADAC group, and for DFS the total number of resected lymph nodes (P=0.042) and lymph node ratio (P=0.031) in the NADAC group. Median OS is 21 months and 5-year survival 27.3% in the NADAC group and 41.5 months and 52% in the ADAC group.

CONCLUSION

Ampullary duodenal/intestinal adenocarcinomas are smaller than non-ampullary at diagnosis, with a higher rate of lymph node metastases, but with a better prognosis and long-term outcome in the presented cohort. Oral localisation of NADAC prevailed in the present cohort. Perineural invasion and postoperative oncological therapy are significant prognostic factors for OS in ADAC, but the total number of lymph nodes and lymph node ratio are significant prognostic factors for DFS in NADAC.

Venous resection for pancreatic cancer, a safe and feasible option? A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

In pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma patients with suspected venous infiltration, a R0 resection is most of the time not possible without venous resection (VR). To investigate this special kind of patients, this meta-analysis was conducted to compare mortality, morbidity and long-term survival of pancreatic resections with (VR+) and without venous resection (VR-).

METHODS

A systematic search was performed in Embase, Pubmed and Web of Science. Studies which compared over twenty patients with VR + to VR-for PDAC with ≥1 year follow up were included. Articles including arterial resections were excluded. Statistical analysis was performed with the random effect Mantel-Haenszel test and inversed variance method. Individual patient data was compared with the log-rank test.

RESULTS

Following a review of 6403 papers by title and abstract and 166 by full text, a meta-analysis was conducted of 32 studies describing 2216 VR+ and 5380 VR-. There was significantly more post-pancreatectomy hemorrhage (6.5% vs. 5.6%), R1 resections (36.7% vs. 28.6%), N1 resections (70.3% vs. 66.8%) and tumors were significantly larger (34.6 mm vs. 32.8 mm) in patients with VR+. Of all VR + patients, 64.6% had true pathological venous infiltration. The 90-day mortality, individual patient data for overall survival and pooled multivariate hazard ratio for overall survival were similar.

CONCLUSION

VR is a safe and feasible option in patients with pancreatic cancer and suspicion of venous involvement, since VR during pancreatic surgery has comparable overall survival and complication rates.

External validation of three lymph node ratio-based nomograms predicting survival using an international cohort of patients with resected pancreatic head ductal adenocarcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Lymph node ratio (LNR) is an important prognostic factor of survival in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). This study aimed to validate three LNR-based nomograms using an international cohort.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Consecutive PDAC patients who underwent upfront pancreatoduodenectomy from six centers (Europe/USA) were collected (2000-2017). Patients with metastases, R2 resection, missing LNR data, and who died within 90 postoperative days were excluded. The updated Amsterdam nomogram, the nomogram by Pu et al., and the nomogram by Li et al. were selected. For the validation, calibration, discrimination capacity, and clinical utility were assessed.

RESULTS

After exclusion of 176 patients, 1'113 patients were included. Median overall survival (OS) of the cohort was 23 months (95% CI: 21-25). For the three nomograms, Kaplan-Meier curves showed significant OS diminution with increasing scores (p < 0.01). All nomograms showed good calibration (non-significant Hosmer-Lemeshow tests). For the Amsterdam nomogram, area under the ROC curve (AUROC) for 3-year OS was 0.64 and 0.67 for 5-year OS. Sensitivity and specificity for 3-year OS prediction were 65% and 59%. Regarding the nomogram by Pu et al., AUROC for 3- and 5-year OS were 0.66 and 0.70. Sensitivity and specificity for 3-year OS prediction were 68% and 53%. For the Li nomogram, AUROC for 3- and 5-year OS were 0.67 and 0.71, while sensitivity and specificity for 3-year OS prediction were 63% and 60%.

CONCLUSION

The three nomograms were validated using an international cohort. Those nomograms can be used in clinical practice to evaluate survival after pancreatoduodenectomy for PDAC.

Nationwide Validation of the 8th American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM Staging System and Five Proposed Modifications for Resected Pancreatic Cancer

BACKGROUND

The prognostic value of four proposed modifications to the 8th American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM staging system has yet to be evaluated. This study aimed to validate five proposed modifications.

METHODS

Patients who underwent pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma resection (2014-2016), as registered in the prospective Dutch Pancreatic Cancer Audit, were included. Stratification and prognostication of TNM staging systems were assessed using Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox proportional hazard analyses, and C-indices. A new modification was composed based on overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

Overall, 750 patients with a median OS of 18 months (interquartile range 10-32) were included. The 8th edition had an increased discriminative ability compared with the 7th edition {C-index 0.59 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.56-0.61) vs. 0.56 (95% CI 0.54-0.58)}. Although the 8th edition showed a stepwise decrease in OS with increasing stage, no differences could be demonstrated between all substages; stage IIA vs. IB (hazard ratio [HR] 1.30, 95% CI 0.80-2.09; p  = 0.29) and stage IIB vs. IIA (HR 1.17, 95% CI 0.75-1.83; p  = 0.48). The four modifications showed comparable prognostic accuracy (C-index 0.59-0.60); however, OS did not differ between all modified TNM stages (ns). The new modification, migrating T3N1 patients to stage III, showed a C-index of 0.59, but did detect significant survival differences between all TNM stages (p  < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The 8th TNM staging system still lacks prognostic value for some categories of patients, which was not clearly improved by four previously proposed modifications. The modification suggested in this study allows for better prognostication in patients with all stages of disease.

Development and external validation of a dynamic nomogram to predict the survival for adenosquamous carcinoma of the pancreas

Objective

We aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the survival and prognosis of adenosquamous carcinoma of the pancreas (ASCP).

Background

Adenosquamous carcinoma of the pancreas (ASCP) is a relatively rare histological subtype of pancreatic exocrine neoplasms. It was reported a worse survival in ASCP than in pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Prediction of ASCP prognosis is of great importance.

Methods

Histologically confirmed ASCP patients from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program database were finally enrolled and divided into development and internal validation cohorts. Moreover, a multi-center cohort of 70 patients from China was registered as the external validation. A nomogram was developed based on independent predictors of ASCP determined in multivariable analysis.

Results

A total of 233 patients from SEER were finally included. Univariate and Multivariate analysis showed that tumor size, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and lymph node ratio (LNR) were considered the independent prognostic indicators. We developed a nomogram according to these four parameters. The C index of the nomogram in the development cohort was 0.696. Through analysis of the area under the curve (AUC) of the different cohorts, we observed that the predictive efficacy of the nomogram for 1-, and 2-year overall survival (OS) were better than those of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM (8th) staging system both in the development and validation cohort. External validation confirmed that 1-year survival is 67.2% vs. 29.7%, similar to the internal cohort analysis.

Conclusion

The nomogram showed good performance in predicting the survival of ASCP. It could help surgeons to make clinical decisions and develop further plans.

Prognostic models to predict survival in patients with pancreatic cancer: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has poor survival. Current treatments offer little likelihood of cure or long-term survival. This systematic review evaluates prognostic models predicting overall survival in patients diagnosed with PDAC.

METHODS

We conducted a comprehensive search of eight electronic databases from their date of inception through to December 2019. Studies that published models predicting survival in patients with PDAC were identified.

RESULTS

3297 studies were identified; 187 full-text articles were retrieved and 54 studies of 49 unique prognostic models were included. Of these, 28 (57.1%) were conducted in patients with advanced disease, 17 (34.7%) with resectable disease, and four (8.2%) in all patients. 34 (69.4%) models were validated, and 35 (71.4%) reported model discrimination, with only five models reporting values >0.70 in both derivation and validation cohorts. Many (n = 27) had a moderate to high risk of bias and most (n = 33) were developed using retrospective data. No variables were unanimously found to be predictive of survival when included in more than one study.

CONCLUSION

Most prognostic models were developed using retrospective data and performed poorly. Future research should validate instruments performing well locally in international cohorts and investigate other potential predictors of survival.

Surgical outcomes and prognostic factors of distal common bile duct adenocarcinoma: chronological analysis in a single high-volume institutional experience

Background

Distal common bile duct (dCBD) cancer is typical indication for pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). We aimed to retrospectively evaluate surgical outcomes and investigate prognostic factors of dCBD adenocarcinoma for which PD was performed at a single institution.

Methods

We searched consecutive cases of dCBD adenocarcinoma undergone PD at Samsung Medical Center from 1995 to 2018. Cases with distant metastasis or palliative intent were excluded. The year in which the survival rate was dramatically improved was identified and entire years were divided into two periods for comparison. To balance between the two periods, we conducted propensity score matching (PSM) analysis using age, sex, body mass index (BMI), and American Society of Anesthesiologist score.

Results

Total of 804 cases were enrolled in this study. The entire period was divided into early period of 18 years and recent period of 6 years. The early and late period included 466 and 338 patients, respectively. As a result of PSM, balanced 316 patients were selected from each of the two periods. Significant improvements in surgical outcomes were identified, including shorter operation time, fewer blood loss, shorter hospitalization, and favorable overall survival. As results of multivariable analysis of independent risk factors for overall survival, older age and advanced N stage were identified, as expected. It was distinct that aggressive surgery and advanced tumor state in the early period and a lower BMI in the late period negatively affected the survival, respectively.

Conclusions

Surgical outcomes of dCBD cancer underwent PD was improved. There were few modifiable factors to improve survival and continuous further study is needed to detect dCBD cancer in the early stages.

Comparison of laparoscopic versus open radical antegrade modular pancreatosplenectomy for pancreatic cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Laparoscopic radical antegrade modular pancreatosplenectomy (l-RAMPS) provides a new surgical approach for patients with pancreatic cancers of the body and tail. However, whether it can achieve comparable outcomes to the open RAMPS (o-RAMPS) remains an issue.

METHODS

To evaluate the safety and effectiveness of l-RAMPS, the studies in the databases of Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library published before September 13, 2021 were searched and a meta-analysis was performed using the 2020 Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guideline. The perioperative and oncological outcomes were analyzed.

RESULTS

Five retrospective cohorts involving 189 patients were included for final pooled analysis. There were no significant differences in the patients' operation time, intra-abdominal bleeding rate, intra-abdominal infection rate, mild morbidity (Clavien-Dindo classification = 1), moderate to severe morbidity (Clavien-Dindo classification ≥2), overall morbidity, wound infection rate, pancreatic fistula rate, delayed gastric emptying rate, reoperation rate, length of hospital stay, postoperative mortality, R0 resection rate, and 2-year overall survival between the 2 approaches. Besides, l-RAMPS was associated with less blood loss (mean difference (MD) = -232.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -316.93 to -148.46, P < 0.00001) and shorter days until oral feeding (MD = -0.79, 95% CI = -1.35 to -0.22, P = 0.006). However, the pooled analysis also indicated a significantly fewer lymph nodes dissected (MD = -3.01, 95% CI = -5.59 to -0.43, P = 0.02) in l-RAMPS approach.

CONCLUSIONS

Although l-RAMPS provides similar outcomes associated with benefits of minimal invasiveness compared to o-RAMPS, it harvested significantly fewer lymph nodes which might have potentially negative influence on the patients' long-term survival. L-RAMPS is still in the infancy stage and further investigation is needed to verify its feasibility.

Prognostic Nomogram Based on the Metastatic Lymph Node Ratio for T1-4N0-1M0 Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors After Surgery

Purpose

This study aimed to investigate the prognostic significance of the metastatic lymph node ratio (LNR) in patients with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (pNETs) and to develop and validate nomograms to predict 5-, 7-, and 10-year overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates for pNETs after surgical resection.

Methods

The demographics and clinicopathological information of T_1-4N_0-1M₀ pNET patients between 2004 and 2018 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database. X-tile software was used to determine the best cutoff value for the LNR. Patients were randomly divided into the training and the validation groups. A Cox regression model was used in the training group to obtain independent prognostic factors to develop nomograms for predicting OS and CSS. The concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the nomograms. Patients were divided into four groups according to the model scores, and their survival curves were generated by the Kaplan–Meier method.

Results

A total of 806 patients were included in this study. The best cutoff value for the LNR was 0.16. The LNR was negatively correlated with both OS and CSS. Age, sex, marital status, primary site, grade, the LNR and radiotherapy were used to construct OS and CSS nomograms. In the training group, the C-index was 0.771 for OS and 0.778 for CSS. In the validation group, the C-index was 0.737 for OS and 0.727 for CSS. The calibration curves and AUC also indicated their good predictability. DCA demonstrated that the nomograms displayed better performance than the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM staging system (8th edition). Risk stratification indicated that patients with higher risk had a worse prognosis.

Conclusions

The LNR is an independent negative prognostic factor for pNETs. The nomograms we built can accurately predict long-term survival for pNETs after surgery.

Prognostic impact of para-aortic lymph node status in resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma and invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm - Time to consider a reclassification?

BACKGROUND

Para-aortic lymph node (PALN) metastases in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) correlates with poor prognosis. The role of PALN in invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (inv-IPMN) has not been well explored. The present study investigated the rate of metastatic PALN, lymph node ratio (LNR) and the overall nodal (N) status as prognostic factors in PDAC and inv-IPMN.

METHODS

This consecutive single-center series included patients with PDAC or inv-IPMN in the pancreatic head who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy or total pancreatectomy, including PALN resection between 2009 and 2018. Median overall survival (mOS) and impact of clinicopathological factors, including PALN status on survival, were evaluated.

RESULTS

403 patients were included, 314 had PDAC and 89 inv-IPMN. PALN were metastatic in 16% of PDAC and 17% of inv-IPMN. N0 status was present in 6% of the patients with PDAC and 16% of inv-IPMN patients (p = 0.007). LNR >15% was more common in PDAC (52%) than in inv-IPMN (34%) (p = 0.004). mOS was 12.7 months in the presence of PALN metastases and 22.7 months without (p < 0.0001). Age >70 years, CA19-9 >200 U/mL, PDAC and N2 status were significantly associated with worse survival in a multivariable analysis. PALN status and LNR were not independent prognostic factors. In N2 status mOS was similar regardless the presence of PALN metastases.

CONCLUSION

The frequency of PALN metastases was similar in PDAC and inv-IPMN. Although PALN positive status entailed a shorter mOS, it was not an independent risk factor for death, and did not influence survival in N2-staged disease. The M1-status for PALN positivity may need reconsideration.

Predictive Model of Early Death of Resectable Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma After Curative Resection: A SEER-Based Study

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to determine the factors that predict early death and establish a predictive model for early death by analyzing clinical characteristics of patients with resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (R-PDAC) who die early after radical surgery.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This was a retrospective study of patients who underwent radical surgical resection for R-PDAC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients with overall survival ≤ 12 months were assigned as early death group and above 1 year as the late death group. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was conducted to identify factors significantly associated with early death. An early death predictive model was constructed based on the identified independent risk factors.

RESULTS

A total of 9695 patients were analyzed, and the total incidence of early death was 30.72%. Multivariable analysis showed that factors significantly associated with early death included age at diagnosis, race, marital status, tumor location, tumor size, tumor grade, number of positive lymph nodes, number of examined lymph nodes, positive lymph node ratio, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy. The predictive model showed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.722 (95% confidence interval: 0.711-0.733) and convincing calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a predictive model that may be easily applied to patients with R-PDAC after radical resection to predict the chance of death within 1 year. For patients with high risk of early death, neoadjuvant therapy should be considered. Even after radical resection, more aggressive adjuvant chemotherapy (with or without combined radiotherapy) must be used to minimize the chance of early death.

Validation of the eighth edition of the AJCC staging system for patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma initially receiving chemoradiotherapy and proposal of modifications

Objective: To validate the eighth edition of the AJCC staging system in patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma receiving only stereotactic body radiation therapy and chemotherapy, and to propose modifications to improve prognostic accuracy.

Methods: Patients with pathologically confirmed pancreatic adenocarcinoma without metastasis who were undergoing only chemoradiotherapy were included and staged according to the seventh and eighth editions of the AJCC staging system. Meanwhile, another group of stage T4 patients from the above enrollment with only portal vein involvement with or without tumor thrombi (PV ± PVTT) were retrieved for survival comparisons. Modifications were proposed according to the survival comparisons. A cohort from the SEER database was used for external validation of the modified staging system.

Results: A total of 683 patients were included. Patients with N2 or N1 but different T stages had significantly different survival outcomes according to the eighth edition. The survival of patients with PV ± PVTT was comparable to that of patients with T4 tumors. The concordance index of the seventh and eighth editions, and the modified staging system was 0.744 (95%CI: 0.718–0.769), 0.750 (95%CI: 0.725–0.775), and 0.788 (95%CI: 0.762–0.813), respectively. For external validation, the concordance index was 0.744 (95%CI: 0.718–0.770), 0.750 (95%CI: 0.724–0.776), and 0.788 (95%CI: 0.762–0.814), respectively.

Conclusions: The modified staging system is suggested to have the most accurate prognostic value. Hence, PV ± PVTT should be added to the definition of T4 tumors regardless of tumor size. Patients with N2 or N1 in different T stages could be regrouped into different substages. Additionally, stage III should be subclassified into IIIA (T3N2 and T4N0) and IIIB (T4N1-2).

Axial slicing versus bivalving in the pathological examination of pancreatoduodenectomy specimens (APOLLO): a multicentre randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

In pancreatoduodenectomy specimens, dissection method may affect the assessment of primary tumour origin (i.e. pancreatic, distal bile duct or ampullary adenocarcinoma), which is primarily determined macroscopically. This is the first study to prospectively compare the two commonly used techniques, i.e. axial slicing and bivalving.

METHODS

In four centres, a randomized controlled trial was performed in specimens of patients with a suspected (pre)malignant tumour in the pancreatic head. Primary outcome measure was the level of certainty (scale 0-100) regarding tumour origin by four independent gastrointestinal pathologists based on macroscopic assessment. Secondary outcomes were inter-observer agreement and R1 rate.

RESULTS

In total, 128 pancreatoduodenectomy specimens were randomized. The level of certainty in determining the primary tumour origin did not differ between axial slicing and bivalving (mean score 72 [sd 13] vs. 68 [sd 16], p = 0.21), nor did inter-observer agreement, both being moderate (kappa 0.45 vs. 0.47). In pancreatic cancer specimens, R1 rate (60% vs. 55%, p = 0.71) and the number of harvested lymph nodes (median 16 vs. 17, p = 0.58) were similar.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated no differences in determining the tumour origin between axial slicing and bivalving. Both techniques performed similarly regarding inter-observer agreement, R1 rate, and lymph node harvest.

Original study: The rescue staging for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma with inadequate examined lymph nodes

BACKGROUND

In previous studies, it's recommended that the lymph node involvement should be evaluated with enough examined lymph nodes (eLNs) in the 8th American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system for pancreatic cancer. This study aims to put forward a rescue staging system for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) patients with inadequate eLNs after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD).

METHOD

11,224 PDAC patients undergoing PD in The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were included. Another Ruijin Pancreatic Disease Center (RJPDC) database consisted of 821 patients was utilized for external validation.

RESULTS

The proportions of patients with eLNs≥15 were 44.7% and 32.8% in SEER and RJPDC database separately. The rescue staging system was put forward relying on LNR (HR = 1.83, 95% CI 1.74-1.92, P < 0.001) for N staging of eLNs<15 population and pLNs for the rest. The TNM modalities were also rearranged in the rescue system for better survival coordination. The C-index of rescue staging system was 0.638 while that of AJCC 8th staging system was 0.613 in SEER database. Similar phenomena were observed in RJPDC database. Kaplan-Meier analyses revealed reliable internal coherences (SEER: Ib: P = 0.26; IIa: P = 0.063; IIb: P = 0.53; IIIa: P = 0.11.

RJPDC

Ib: P = 0.32; IIa: P = 0.66; IIb: P = 0.76; IIIa: P = 0.66) and significant staging efficiency (SEER: P < 0.001; RJPDC: P = 0.002).

CONCLUSION

A rescue staging system was put forward regardless of the eLNs number. And the novel system manifested better predictive capacity than 8th AJCC staging system.

A nomogram predicting overall survival in patients with non-metastatic pancreatic head adenocarcinoma after surgery: a population-based study

Background

Pancreatic head adenocarcinoma (PHAC), a malignant tumour, has a very poor prognosis, and the existing prognostic tools lack good predictive power. This study aimed to develop a better nomogram to predict overall survival after resection of non-metastatic PHAC.

Methods

Patients with non-metastatic PHAC were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and divided randomly into training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. Cox regression analysis was used to screen prognostic factors and construct the nomogram. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were calculated to evaluate the performance of the model. The predictive accuracy and clinical benefits of the nomogram were validated using the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

From 2010 to 2016, 6419 patients with non-metastatic PHAC who underwent surgery were collected from the SEER database. A model including T stage, N stage, grade, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy was constructed. The concordance index of the nomogram was 0.676, and the AUCs of the model assessing survival at multiple timepoints within 60 months were significantly higher than those of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th staging system in the training cohort. Calibration curves showed that the nomogram had ability to predict the actual survival. The NRI, IDI, and DCA curves also indicated that our nomogram had higher predictive capability and clinical utility than the AJCC staging system.

Conclusions

Our nomogram has an ability to predict overall survival after resection of non-metastatic PHAC and includes prognostic factors that are easy to obtain in clinical practice. It would help assist clinicians to conduct personalized medicine.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-08250-4.

Defining a minimum number of examined lymph nodes improves the prognostic value of lymphadenectomy in pancreas ductal adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Lymph node (LN) metastasis is associated with decreased survival following resection for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). In N0 disease, increasing total evaluated LN (ELN) correlates with improved outcomes suggesting patients may be understaged when LNs are undersampled. We aim to assess the optimal number of examined lymph nodes (ELN) following pancreatectomy.

METHODS

Data from 1837 patients undergoing surgery were prospectively collected. The binomial probability law was utilized to analyze the minimum number of examined LNs (minELN) and accurately characterize each histopathologic stage. LN ratio (LNR) was compared to American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) guidelines.

RESULTS

As ELN total increased, the likelihood of finding node positive disease increased. An evaluation based upon the binomial probability law suggested an optimal minELN of 12 for accurate AJCC N staging. As the number of ELNs increased, the discriminatory capacity of alternative strategies to characterize LN disease exceeded that offered by AJCC N stage.

CONCLUSION

This is the first study dedicated to optimizing histopathologic staging in PDAC using models of minELN informed by the binomial probability law. This study highlights two separate cutoffs for ELNs depending upon prognostic goal and validates that 12 LNs are adequate to determine AJCC N stage for the majority of patients.

Predictive Value of Lymph Node Ratio in Patients with Pancreatic Cancer Treated with Pancreatoduodenectomy

Background: Recently, the predictive value of lymph node ratio (LNR, the ratio of metastatic lymph nodes to total examined lymph nodes) has been evaluated in patients with gastrointestinal malignancies, including pancreatic cancer. However, there is not enough evidence about the prognostic value of this factor. Objectives: We aimed at determining the value of LNR in predicting the survival of patients who have undergone the Whipple procedure. Methods: This cohort study was performed on 96 patients with pancreatic cancer undergoing the Whipple procedure during 2014 - 2019. Demographic, clinical, and pathological data of the patients were extracted from their records and patients' survival status was determined through follow-up. LNR and its effect on survival was calculated using the Cox model. Results: Of the 96 eligible patients, 51 (53.13%) were men. The mean age of the patients was 57.1 ± 14.1 (range: 19 - 82) years. The median total lymph nodes examined was 7 (range: 1 - 27), and no metastatic lymph nodes were found in 57 (59.37%) patients. The median involved lymph nodes and LNR were 2 and 0.17, respectively. Patients with LNR > 0.20 had the lowest 1 and 3-year survival rates. Age (P = 0.04), surgical radial margin (P = 0.001), lymph node status (N0, N1) (P = 0.01), and LNR (P = 0.01) were the most important prognostic factors for survival. Conclusions: LNR is a valuable indicator that can be used in patients with lymph node involvement as a prognostic factor for poor survival after the Whipple procedure. The lowest 1, 3, and 5-year survival rates were seen in patients with LNR > 0.20.

Preoperative misdiagnosis of pancreatic and periampullary cancer in patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy: A multicentre retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Whereas neoadjuvant chemo(radio)therapy is increasingly used in pancreatic cancer, it is currently not recommended for other periampullary (non-pancreatic) cancers. This has important implications for the relevance of the preoperative diagnosis for pancreatoduodenectomy. This retrospective multicentre cohort study aimed to determine the frequency of clinically relevant misdiagnoses in patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic or other periampullary cancer.

METHODS

Data from all consecutive patients who underwent a pancreatoduodenectomy between 2014 and 2018 were obtained from the prospective Dutch Pancreatic Cancer Audit. The preoperative diagnosis as concluded by the multidisciplinary team (MDT) meeting was compared with the final postoperative diagnosis at pathology to determine the rate of clinically relevant misdiagnosis (defined as missed pancreatic cancer or incorrect diagnosis of pancreatic cancer).

RESULTS

In total, 1244 patients underwent pancreatoduodenectomy of whom 203 (16%) had a clinically relevant misdiagnosis preoperatively. Of all patients with a final diagnosis of pancreatic cancer, 13% (87/679) were preoperatively misdiagnosed as distal cholangiocarcinoma (n = 41, 6.0%), ampullary cancer (n = 27, 4.0%) duodenal cancer (n = 16, 2.4%), or other (n = 3, 0.4%). Of all patients with a final diagnosis of periampullary (non-pancreatic) cancer, 21% (116/565) were preoperatively incorrectly diagnosed as pancreatic cancer. Accuracy of preoperative diagnosis was 84% for pancreatic cancer, 71% for distal cholangiocarcinoma, 73% for ampullary cancer and 73% for duodenal cancer. A prediction model for the preoperative likelihood of pancreatic cancer (versus other periampullary cancer) prior to pancreatoduodenectomy demonstrated an AUC of 0.88.

DISCUSSION

This retrospective multicentre cohort study showed that 16% of patients have a clinically relevant misdiagnosis that could result in either missing the opportunity of neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with pancreatic cancer or inappropriate administration of neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with non-pancreatic periampullary cancer. A preoperative prediction model is available on www.pancreascalculator.com.

Significance of Lymph Node Resection After Neoadjuvant Therapy in Pancreatic, Gastric, and Rectal Cancers

OBJECTIVE

Gastrointestinal cancers are increasingly being treated with NAT before surgical resection. Currently, quality metrics are linked to the number of LNs resected to determine subsequent treatment and prognosis. We hypothesize that NAT decreases LN metastasis, downstages patients, and decreases overall lymph node yields (LNY) compared to initial surgical resection. With increasing use of NAT, this brings into question the validity of quality metrics.

METHODS

Gastric (stage II/III), pancreatic (stage I/II/III), and rectal cancers (stage II/III) (2010-2015) treated with surgery with/without NAT were identified in National Cancer Database. We evaluated total LNY and LN metastasis with/without NAT and clinical and pathological stage to evaluate rates of downstaging.

RESULTS

A total of 7934 gastric, 15,908 pancreatic, and 21,354 rectal cancer patients were included of which 61.1%, 21.2%, and 85.7% received NAT, respectively. NAT patients were more likely to be downstaged (39.9% vs 11.1% gastric P< 0.001, 30.6% vs 3.2% pancreatic P< 0.001, 52.0% vs 16.3% rectal P< 0.001), have lower LNYs (18.8 vs 19.1 gastric P = 0.239, 18.4 vs 17.5 pancreatic P< 0.001, 15.7 vs 20.0 rectal P< 0.001) and have N0 pathologic disease (43.6% vs 26.7% gastric P< 0.001, 51.1% vs 30.9% pancreatic P< 0.001, 65.9% vs 49.4% rectal P< 0.001) when compared to initial surgical resection.

CONCLUSION

NAT for gastrointestinal cancers results in overall lower LN yields, lower LN metastases, and significant downstaging of tumors. As all patients undergoing NAT receive multimodality therapy, LN yield recommendations may not be true quality metric changing.

Preoperative CTC-Detection by CellSearch® Is Associated with Early Distant Metastasis and Impaired Survival in Resected Pancreatic Cancer

In patients with presumed pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), biomarkers that may open for personalised, risk-adapted treatment are lacking. The study analysed the impact of CTCs-presence on the patterns of recurrence and survival in 98 patients resected for PDAC with 5-10 years of follow-up. Preoperative samples were analysed by the CellSearch^® system for EpCAM+/DAPI+/CK+/CD45-CTCs. CTCs were detected in 7 of the 98 patients. CTCs predicted a significantly shorter median disease-free survival (DFS) of 3.3 vs. 9.2 months and a median cancer specific survival (CSS)of 6.3 vs. 18.5 months. Relapse status was confirmed by imaging for 87 patients. Of these, 58 patients developed distant metastases (DM) and 29 developed isolated local recurrence (ILR) as the first sign of cancer relapse. All patients with CTCs experienced DM. pN-status and histological grade >2 were other independent risk factors for DM, but only CTCs predicted significantly shorter cancer-specific, disease-free and post-recurrence survival. Preoperative parameters did not affect clinical outcome. We conclude that CTC presence in resected PDAC patients predicted early distant metastasis and impaired survival. Preoperative CTCs alone or in combination with histopathological factors may guide initial treatment decisions in patients with resectable PDAC in the future.

Impact of lymph node staging systems in predicting outcome in patients with ampullary cancer

Backgrounds/Aims

Lymph node (LN) metastasis though, is a poor prognostic factor for ampullary carcinoma (APC), the impact of Lymph node ratio (LNR) and Logarithm odds of positive lymph node (LODDS) in the long-term survival remains controversial. We evaluated the factors affecting the long-term outcome in APC patients with emphasis on LNR and LODDS.

Methods

The prospectively collected data of 198 patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy for APC was analyzed after excluding 12 patients for various reasons. Factors affecting Disease specific survival (DSS) and Recurrence free survival (RFS) were analyzed with special reference to LN positivity, LNR and LODDS.

Results

Out of 186, 117 (62.9%) patients were alive at a median follow-up of 39.5 months and 72 (38.7%) developed recurrence. The overall 5-year DSS was 59.3% & RFS 54.9%. Univariate analysis showed T-stage, tumor differentiation, perineural invasion, LN positivity, LNR and LODDS was significantly affected DSS and RFS. On multivariate analysis, perineural invasion, LN positivity, LNR and LODDS lost its significance for DSS and RFS. AUC for prediction of DSS and RFS for LNR was 0.654 (p<0.001) & 0.629 (p=0.003) respectively and for LODDS, it was 0.697 (p<0.001) & 0.677 (p=0.001) respectively. Sensitivity and specificity of LNR (0.1) for DSS were 37.7% & 83.8% and for RFS were 36.1% & 83.3%; for LODDS (-1.00), sensitivity and specificity for DSS was 62.3% and 67.5% and for RFS it was 59.7% and 66.7% respectively.

Conclusions

LNR and LODDS although independently seem to affect the RFS and DSS, albeit have a low sensitivity and specificity in predicting DSS and RFS.

Survival impact based on hepatic artery lymph node status in pancreatic adenocarcinoma: A study of patients receiving modern chemotherapy

BACKGROUND

Chemotherapy for pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has significantly improved in recent years. While the involvement of the hepatic artery lymph node (HALN; station 8a lymph node) likely represents advanced disease, a comparison to patients with metastases on modern chemotherapy is lacking.

METHODS

Patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy with HALN sent for pathologic review at a single institution from 2003 to 2018 were reviewed. Patients who presented with liver-only metastases at the time of PDAC diagnosis (Stage IV) and received chemotherapy were identified. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression modeling was utilized and overall survival (OS) was estimated using Kaplan-Meier analysis.

RESULTS

Of the 112 patients with a HALN sent for analysis, 17 (15%) were positive and 13 (76%) received chemotherapy. Ninety-four stage IV patients were identified and were significantly more likely to have received a multiagent rather than single-agent chemotherapy regimen compared to HALN positive patients (79.8% vs. 38.5%, p < .001). Median OS was significantly longer in all patients who underwent surgical resection, regardless of HALN status, compared to stage IV patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy with HALN positivity have significantly improved OS compared to patients with stage IV disease. HALN involvement does not significantly alter survival among resected patients and does not warrant preoperative endoscopic ultrasound-guided biopsy.

Role of lymphadenectomy in resectable pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic cancer (PC) remains one of the most devastating malignant diseases, predicted to become the second leading cause of cancer-related death by 2030. Despite advances in surgical techniques and in systemic therapy, the 5-year relative survival remains a grim 9% for all stages combined. The extent of lymphadenectomy has been discussed intensively for decades, given that even in early stages of PC, lymph node (LN) metastasis can be detected in approximately 80%.

PURPOSE

The primary objective of this review was to provide an overview of the current literature evaluating the role of lymphadenectomy in resected PC. For this, we evaluated randomized controlled studies (RCTs) assessing the impact of extent of lymphadenectomy on OS and studies evaluating the prognostic impact of anatomical site of LN metastasis and the impact of the number of resected LNs on OS.

CONCLUSIONS

Lymphadenectomy plays an essential part in the multimodal treatment algorithm of PC and is an additional therapeutic tool to increase the chance for surgical radicality and to ensure correct staging for optimal oncological therapy. Based on the literature from the last decades, standard lymphadenectomy with resection of at least ≥ 15 LNs is associated with an acceptable postoperative complication risk and should be recommended to obtain local radicality and accurate staging of the disease. Although radical surgery including appropriate lymphadenectomy of regional LNs remains the only chance for long-term tumor control, future studies specifically assessing the impact of neoadjuvant therapy on extraregional LNs are warranted.

Development and external validation of a prediction model for survival in patients with resected ampullary adenocarcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Ampullary adenocarcinoma (AAC) is a rare malignancy with great morphological heterogeneity, which complicates the prediction of survival and, therefore, clinical decision-making. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate a prediction model for survival after resection of AAC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

An international multicenter cohort study was conducted, including patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy for AAC (2006-2017) from 27 centers in 10 countries spanning three continents. A derivation and validation cohort were separately collected. Predictors were selected from the derivation cohort using a LASSO Cox proportional hazards model. A nomogram was created based on shrunk coefficients. Model performance was assessed in the derivation cohort and subsequently in the validation cohort, by calibration plots and Uno's C-statistic. Four risk groups were created based on quartiles of the nomogram score.

RESULTS

Overall, 1007 patients were available for development of the model. Predictors in the final Cox model included age, resection margin, tumor differentiation, pathological T stage and N stage (8th AJCC edition). Internal cross-validation demonstrated a C-statistic of 0.75 (95% CI 0.73-0.77). External validation in a cohort of 462 patients demonstrated a C-statistic of 0.77 (95% CI 0.73-0.81). A nomogram for the prediction of 3- and 5-year survival was created. The four risk groups showed significantly different 5-year survival rates (81%, 57%, 22% and 14%, p < 0.001). Only in the very-high risk group was adjuvant chemotherapy associated with an improved overall survival.

CONCLUSION

A prediction model for survival after curative resection of AAC was developed and externally validated. The model is easily available online via www.pancreascalculator.com.

A Radiomics Nomogram for the Preoperative Prediction of Lymph Node Metastasis in Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

PURPOSE

To construct and verify a CT-based multidimensional nomogram for the evaluation of lymph node (LN) status in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively assessed data from 172 patients with clinicopathologically confirmed PDAC surgically resected between February 2014 and November 2016. Patients were assigned to either a training cohort (n = 121) or a validation cohort (n = 51). We acquired radiomics features from the preoperative venous phase (VP) CT images. The maximum relevance-minimum redundancy (mRMR) algorithm and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) methods were used to select the optimal features. We used multivariable logistic regression to construct a combined radiomics model for visualization in the form of a nomogram. Performance of the nomogram was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve approach, calibration testing, and analysis of clinical usefulness.

RESULTS

A Rad score consisting of 10 LN status-related radiomics features was found to be significantly associated with the actual LN status (P < 0.01). A nomogram that consisted of Rad scores, CT-reported parenchymal atrophy, and CT-reported LN status performed well in terms of predictive power in the training cohort (area under the curve, 0.92), and this was confirmed in the validation cohort (area under the curve, 0.95). The nomogram also performed well in the calibration test and decision curve analysis, demonstrating its potential clinical value.

CONCLUSION

A multidimensional radiomics nomogram consisting of Rad scores, CT-reported parenchymal atrophy, and CT-reported LN status may contribute to the non-invasive evaluation of LN status in PDAC patients.

The prognostic value of lymph node ratio in survival of non-metastatic breast carcinoma patients

PURPOSE

This study was conducted to assess the correlation between lymph node ratio (LNR) and prognosis of non-metastatic invasive breast carcinoma.

METHOD

This retrospective study examined 455 patients who were diagnosed with non-metastatic, unilateral invasive breast carcinoma and underwent either breast conservative surgery (BCS) or modified radical mastectomy (MRM) with axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) with at least one lymph node identified in the ALND specimen. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was used to find out predictive cut-off values of the LNR and negative lymph nodes (NLN).

RESULTS

The median follow-up duration was 38 months. The median DFS and OS were 68 months and 72 months, respectively. 25.1% of patients had reported recurrence. The optimal cut-off value of LNR was 0.40. LNR was found to correlate significantly with pathological T (p < 0.001), pathological N (p < 0.001), and NLN (p < 0.001). Univariate analysis of the patients showed that the age group ≤ 35 years, menstrual status, pathological T, nodal status, lymphovascular invasion (LVI), perineural invasion (PNI), tumor grade, estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), molecular subtypes, LNR, and NLN can affect disease-free survival (DFS) (p < 0.05) and OS (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that the pathological T (p < 0.001), menstrual status (p = 0.030), and LNR (p < 0.001) were the independent prognostic factors for DFS. Pathological T (p < 0.001) and LNR (p < 0.001) were the independent prognostic factors affecting OS.

CONCLUSION

LNR is the independent prognostic factor of DFS and OS for non-metastatic breast carcinoma.

Prognostic Factors of Long-term Survival Following Radical Resection for Ampullary Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The incidence of adenocarcinoma of the ampulla of Vater has been increasing over the past years. Nevertheless, it is still a rare disease and the prognostic factors predicting long-term survival are not sufficiently clarified. This study aims to evaluate the association between histopathological characteristics and long-term survival of patients with ampullary cancer after curative resection, as well as the efficiency of immunohistochemical expression of CK7, CK20, and CDX2 to distinguish the histopathological (intestinal or pancreaticobiliary) patterns.

METHODS

Demographic, histopathological data, pTNM stage, and immunohistochemical expression patterns were collected from 65 patients with adenocarcinoma of the ampulla of Vater. Five and 10-year overall and disease-free survival rates after curative resection were determined.

RESULTS

Of the 65 patients with ampullary carcinoma, 47 (72%) underwent radical resection. The 5- and 10-year overall survival rate was 46% and 37%, respectively. Our results demonstrate that the main prognostic factors were the presence and number of lymph node metastases, lymph node ratio (LNR), differentiation grade, and lymphovascular invasion. After multivariate analysis, only lymph node ratio ≥ 20% remained an independent prognostic factor of survival (HR: 2.63 95% CI: 1.05-6.61; p = 0.039).

CONCLUSION

Here, we demonstrated more evidence that the lymph node metastases are associated with poor prognosis in ampullary carcinoma. Particularly, the relation between the number of metastatic lymph nodes and the number of harvested lymph node (LNR) should be considered a major prognostic factor.

A Novel Staging System to Forecast the Cancer-Specific Survival of Patients With Resected Gallbladder Cancer

Objective: Gallbladder cancer (GBC) is one of the most aggressive malignant tumors, and there is no effective and convenient method for predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS). We aim to develop a novel nomogram staging system based on the positive lymph node ratio (pLNR) for GBC patients.

Methods:A total of 1,356 patients enrolled in the study. We evaluated the prognostic value of the pLNR and built a prognostic nomogram staging system based on the pLNR in the training cohort. The concordance index and calibration plots were used to evaluate model discrimination. The predictive accuracy and clinical value of the nomograms were measured by decision curve analysis (DCA). The CSS nomogram was further validated in an internal validation cohort.

Results:The pLNR was an independent prognostic factor for CSS based on Cox regression analyses. A prognostic nomogram that combined T classification, pLNR, M classification, histologic grade, live metastasis, and tumor size was formulated with a c-index of 0.763 (95% CI, 0.728–0.798), while the c-indexes for the staging system of AJCC 8th, 7th, and 6th for CSS prediction were 0.718, 0.718, and 0.717, respectively. The calibration curves showed perfect agreement. The DCA showed that the nomogram provided substantial clinical value. The nomogram (the AUCs for 1, 3, and 5 years were 0.693, 0.716, and 0.726, respectively,) showed high prognostic accuracy.

Conclusion:We have developed a formulated nomogram staging system based on the pLNR that allows more accurate individualized predictions of CSS for resected GBC patients than the AJCC staging systems.

Score for the Overall Survival Probability of Patients With Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma of the Body and Tail After Surgery: A Novel Nomogram-Based Risk Assessment

Pancreatic adenocarcinoma of the body and tail often has a dismal prognosis and lacks a specific prognostic stage. The aim of this study was to construct a nomogram for predicting survival of patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma of the body and tail after surgery. Data of patients were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and from medical records of Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (SYSUCC). In a multivariate analysis for overall survival (OS), the following six variables were identified as independent predictors and incorporated into the nomogram: age, tumor differentiation, tumor size, lymph node ratio (LNR), and chemotherapy. A nomogram was built based on independent risk predictors. The concordance index (C-index) for nomogram, Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM) 7th and 8th stage system were 0.775 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.731–0.819], 0.617 (95%CI, 0.575–0.659), and 0.632 (95%CI, 0.588–0.676), respectively. The calibrated nomogram predicted survival rates which closely corresponded to the actual survival rates. Furthermore, the values of the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC) of the nomograms were higher than those of the TNM 7th or 8th stage system in predicting 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival of patients in training and external validation cohorts. The well-calibrated nomogram could be used to predict prognosis for patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma of the body and tail after surgery.

Prognostic factors and benefits of adjuvant therapy for ampullary cancer following pancreatoduodenectomy: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Ampullary cancer is a relatively rare gastrointestinal malignancy. The purpose of this study was to evaluate prognostic factors for survival and assess the benefits of adjuvant therapy following pancreaticoduodenectomy for this entity. Medline and EMBASE databases were searched to identify eligible studies from January 2000 to August 2019. Review Manager 5.3 statistical software was used for meta-analysis. 71 studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis for a total of 8280 patients. The median (range) 5-year overall survival and disease-free survival rates were 58% (32-82%) and 51% (28-73%) respectively. In meta-analysis, age >65 years at diagnosis, tumor size >20 mm, poor differentiation, pancreaticobiliary histotype, pT3-4 stage disease, presence of metastatic lymph node, number of metastatic nodes, perineural invasion, lymphovascular invasion, vascular invasion, pancreatic invasion, and positive surgical margins were independently associated with worse overall survival, whereas adjuvant therapy was associated with improved overall survival. In summary, in patients with ampullary cancer undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy, tumor factors are the main predictors of worse survival and adjuvant treatment confers a survival benefit.

Comparison of clinical outcomes according to the history of previous gastrectomy in patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy: a propensity score matching analysis

Purpose

Although pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) in patients who have previously undergone gastrectomy is challenging, little is known about the clinical outcomes and the differences compared to those with conventional PD. We collected cases and conducted studies in retrospective review.

Methods

Of the 1,722 patients who underwent PD at Seoul National University Hospital between 2000 and 2014, 49 (2.8%) underwent previous gastrectomy. Clinical outcomes including operation-related factors and postoperative morbidities were analyzed.

Results

Among the 49 patients with curative surgery, 25 patients were male (51.0%) and the mean age was 64.7 years. Gastric cancer was the most frequent cause of previous gastrectomy (93.8%). With one-to-one propensity score matching analysis, lower preoperative body mass index (22.6 kg/m²vs. 20.8 kg/m², P = 0.002), higher EBL (390.0 mL vs. 729.5 mL, P = 0.027), and higher transfusion rates (10.2% vs. 36.7%, P = 0.002) were shown in the gastrectomy group. Operation time, postoperative hospital stay, and rate of clinically relevant pancreatic fistula were comparable.

Conclusion

Secondary PD after prior gastrectomy remains challenging, with higher EBL and rate of transfusion. However, when performed by experienced surgeons, the patients with or without previous gastrectomy show comparable postoperative clinical outcomes, such as similar duration of postoperative hospital stay and rate of postoperative pancreatic fistula.

Conditional Survival After Resection for Pancreatic Cancer: A Population-Based Study and Prediction Model

Background

Conditional survival is the survival probability after already surviving a predefined time period. This may be informative during follow-up, especially when adjusted for tumor characteristics. Such prediction models for patients with resected pancreatic cancer are lacking and therefore conditional survival was assessed and a nomogram predicting 5-year survival at a predefined period after resection of pancreatic cancer was developed.

Methods

This population-based study included patients with resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (2005–2016). Conditional survival was calculated as the median, and the probability of surviving up to 8 years in patients who already survived 0–5 years after resection was calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method. A prediction model was constructed.

Results

Overall, 3082 patients were included, with a median age of 67 years. Median overall survival was 18 months (95% confidence interval 17–18 months), with a 5-year survival of 15%. The 1-year conditional survival (i.e. probability of surviving the next year) increased from 55 to 74 to 86% at 1, 3, and 5 years after surgery, respectively, while the median overall survival increased from 15 to 40 to 64 months at 1, 3, and 5 years after surgery, respectively. The prediction model demonstrated that the probability of achieving 5-year survival at 1 year after surgery varied from 1 to 58% depending on patient and tumor characteristics.

Conclusions

This population-based study showed that 1-year conditional survival was 55% 1 year after resection and 74% 3 years after resection in patients with pancreatic cancer. The prediction model is available via www.pancreascalculator.com to inform patients and caregivers.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1245/s10434-020-08235-w) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Survival in Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer After Neoadjuvant Therapy and Surgical Resection

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to identify the survival of patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) and assess the effect of surgical resection after neoadjuvant therapy on patient outcomes.

BACKGROUND

An increasing number of LAPC patients who respond favorably to neoadjuvant therapy undergo surgical resection. The impact of surgery on patient survival is largely unknown.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All LAPC patients who presented to the institutional pancreatic multidisciplinary clinic (PMDC) from January 2013 to September 2017 were included in the study. Demographics and clinical data on neoadjuvant treatment and surgical resection were documented. Primary tumor resection rates after neoadjuvant therapy and overall survival (OS) were the primary study endpoints.

RESULTS

A total of 415 LAPC patients were included in the study. Stratification of neoadjuvant therapy in FOLFIRINOX-based, gemcitabine-based, and combination of the two, and subsequent outcome comparison did not demonstrate significant differences in OS of 331 non-resected LAPC patients (P = 0.134). Eighty-four patients underwent resection of the primary tumor (20%), after a median duration of 5 months of neoadjuvant therapy. FOLFIRINOX-based therapy and stereotactic body radiation therapy correlated with increased probability of resection (P = 0.006). Resected patients had better performance status, smaller median tumor size (P = 0.029), and lower median CA19-9 values (P < 0.001) at PMDC. Patients who underwent surgical resection had significant higher median OS compared with those who did not (35.3 vs 16.3 mo, P < 0.001). The difference remained significant when non-resected patients were matched for time of neoadjuvant therapy (19.9 mo, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Surgical resection of LAPC after neoadjuvant therapy is feasible in a highly selected cohort of patients (20%) and is associated with significantly longer median overall survival.

Prognostic impact of para-aortic lymph node metastases in non-pancreatic periampullary cancer

Background

Resection of the para-aortic lymph node (PALN) group Ln16b1 during pancreatoduodenectomy remains controversial because PALN metastases are associated with a worse prognosis in pancreatic cancer patients. The present study aimed to analyze the impact of PALN metastases on outcome after non-pancreatic periampullary cancer resection.

Methods

One hundred sixty-four patients with non-pancreatic periampullary cancer who underwent curative pancreatoduodenectomy or total pancreatectomy between 2005 and 2016 were retrospectively investigated. The data were supplemented with a systematic literature review on this topic.

Results

In 67 cases, the PALNs were clearly assigned and could be histopathologically analyzed. In 10.4% of cases (7/67), tumor-infiltrated PALNs (PALN+) were found. Metastatic PALN+ stage was associated with increased tumor size (P = 0.03) and a positive nodal stage (P < 0.001). The median overall survival (OS) of patients with metastatic PALN and non-metastatic PALN (PALN–) was 24.8 and 29.5 months, respectively. There was no significant difference in the OS of PALN+ and pN1 PALN patients (P = 0.834). Patients who underwent palliative surgical treatment (n = 20) had a lower median OS of 13.6 (95% confidence interval 2.7–24.5) months. Including the systematic literature review, only 23 cases with PALN+ status and associated OS could be identified; the average survival was 19.8 months.

Conclusion

PALN metastasis reflects advanced tumor growth and lymph node spread; however, it did not limit overall survival in single-center series. The available evidence of the prognostic impact of PALN metastasis is scarce and a recommendation against resection in these cases cannot be given.

International validation and update of the Amsterdam model for prediction of survival after pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to validate and update the Amsterdam prediction model including tumor grade, lymph node ratio, margin status and adjuvant therapy, for prediction of overall survival (OS) after pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer.

METHODS

We included consecutive patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer between 2000 and 2017 at 11 tertiary centers in 8 countries (USA, UK, Germany, Italy, Sweden, the Netherlands, Korea, Australia). Model performance for prediction of OS was evaluated by calibration statistics and Uno's C-statistic for discrimination. Validation followed the TRIPOD statement.

RESULTS

Overall, 3081 patients (53% male, median age 66 years) were included with a median OS of 24 months, of whom 38% had N2 disease and 77% received adjuvant chemotherapy. Predictions of 3-year OS were fairly similar to observed OS with a calibration slope of 0.72. Statistical updating of the model resulted in an increase of the C-statistic from 0.63 to 0.65 (95% CI 0.64-0.65), ranging from 0.62 to 0.67 across different countries. The area under the curve for the prediction of 3-year OS was 0.71 after updating. Median OS was 36, 25 and 15 months for the low, intermediate and high risk group, respectively (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This large international study validated and updated the Amsterdam model for survival prediction after pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer. The model incorporates readily available variables with a fairly accurate model performance and robustness across different countries, while novel markers may be added in the future. The risk groups and web-based calculator www.pancreascalculator.com may facilitate use in daily practice and future trials.

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting overall survival of node-negative ampullary carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The accuracy of the current staging system for predicting the overall survival (OS) of patients with ampullary carcinoma (AC) is still unsatisfactory, especially in node-negative (N0) patients. We aimed at establishing a nomogram to accurately predict OS in N0 AC.

METHODS

This study enrolled 697 N0 AC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (design cohort [DC], n = 697) and the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University (validation cohort [VC], n = 112), who underwent surgical resection. The nomogram was established by using prognostic factors determined by univariate and multivariate regression analyses.

RESULTS

The nomogram for OS was developed by using four independent prognostic factors, including age, grade, T stage, and a number of examined lymph nodes. The C-index of a nomogram for OS in DC and VC was 0.665 and 0.731, respectively. Calibration curves showed good consistency of the nomogram. The nomogram had a better accuracy in predicting OS compared with conventional staging system (P < .05). On the basis of nomogram-predicted scores, the patients were stratified into groups with different risk. The OS of low-risk patients was significantly longer than high-risk ones (P ≤ .010).

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram could be used to predict the OS of N0 AC. It could help guide further treatment in clinical practice.

High-Mobility Group Box 1 expression predicts survival of patients after resection of adenocarcinoma of the ampulla of Vater

Background

Expression of High-Mobility Group Box 1 (HMGB1), a multifunctional protein involved in DNA function as well as cell proliferation, inflammation, and the immune response, has been reported to be prognostic in several types of malignancies. However, the prognostic value of HMGB1 in ampullary cancer has not been studied.

Methods

Patients with adenocarcinoma of the ampulla of Vater who underwent R0 resection with pancreaticoduodenectomy between 2001 and 2011 were included in the present multi-institutional study. The degree of HMGB1 expression was examined in each resected specimen by immunohistochemical staining.

Results

A total of 101 patients were enrolled of which, 79 patients were eligible. High expression of HMGB1 was observed in 31 (39%) patients. Blood loss, transfusion, tumor stage, nodal status, and HMGB1 expression were identified as predictors with univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis showed that transfusion, lymph-node metastasis, and high HMGB1 expression were independent predictors of poor overall survival. Subgroup analysis showed that high HMGB1 expression was predictive, especially in patients who did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy.

Conclusions

High HMGB1 expression is an independent predictor of poor prognosis in patients with adenocarcinoma of the ampulla of Vater not treated with adjuvant chemotherapy.