Setting priorities for conservation at the interface between ocean circulation, connectivity, and population dynamics

Larval connectivity of the invasive blue crabs Callinectes sapidus and Portunus segnis in the Mediterranean Sea: A step toward improved cross border management

The two invasive blue crabs, Callinectes sapidus and Portunus segnis have spread rapidly in the Mediterranean and no data exists on the connectivity of populations. Determining the source and recruitment areas is crucial to prioritize where population control measures should be put into immediate action. We simulated the dispersal of blue crab larvae using a Lagrangian model coupled at high resolution to estimate the potential connectivity of blue crab populations over a 3-year period. Our results reveal that the main areas at risk are the Spanish, French, Italian Tyrrhenian and Sardinian coasts for Callinectes sapidus with high populations connectivity. Tunisia and Egypt represent high auto recruitment zones for Portunus segnis restricted to the central and western basins. This study provides an overview of the connectivity between populations and will help define priority areas that require the urgent implementation of management measures.

Integrating larval connectivity into the marine conservation decision-making process across spatial scales

Larval dispersal connectivity is typically integrated into spatial conservation decisions at regional or national scales, but implementing agencies struggle with translating these methods to local scales. We used larval dispersal connectivity at regional (hundreds of kilometers) and local (tens of kilometers) scales to aid in design of networks of no-take reserves in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia. We used Marxan with Connectivity informed by biophysical larval dispersal models and remotely sensed coral reef habitat data to design marine reserve networks for 4 commercially important reef species across the region. We complemented regional spatial prioritization with decision trees that combined network-based connectivity metrics and habitat quality to design reserve boundaries locally. Decision trees were used in consensus-based workshops with stakeholders to qualitatively assess site desirability, and Marxan was used to identify areas for subsequent network expansion. Priority areas for protection and expected benefits differed among species, with little overlap in reserve network solutions. Because reef quality varied considerably across reefs, we suggest reef degradation must inform the interpretation of larval dispersal patterns and the conservation benefits achievable from protecting reefs. Our methods can be readily applied by conservation practitioners, in this region and elsewhere, to integrate connectivity data across multiple spatial scales.

Influence of offshore oil and gas structures on seascape ecological connectivity

Offshore platforms, subsea pipelines, wells and related fixed structures supporting the oil and gas (O&G) industry are prevalent in oceans across the globe, with many approaching the end of their operational life and requiring decommissioning. Although structures can possess high ecological diversity and productivity, information on how they interact with broader ecological processes remains unclear. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the role of O&G infrastructure in maintaining, altering or enhancing ecological connectivity with natural marine habitats. There is a paucity of studies on the subject with only 33 papers specifically targeting connectivity and O&G structures, although other studies provide important related information. Evidence for O&G structures facilitating vertical and horizontal seascape connectivity exists for larvae and mobile adult invertebrates, fish and megafauna; including threatened and commercially important species. The degree to which these structures represent a beneficial or detrimental net impact remains unclear, is complex and ultimately needs more research to determine the extent to which natural connectivity networks are conserved, enhanced or disrupted. We discuss the potential impacts of different decommissioning approaches on seascape connectivity and identify, through expert elicitation, critical knowledge gaps that, if addressed, may further inform decision making for the life cycle of O&G infrastructure, with relevance for other industries (e.g. renewables). The most highly ranked critical knowledge gap was a need to understand how O&G structures modify and influence the movement patterns of mobile species and dispersal stages of sessile marine species. Understanding how different decommissioning options affect species survival and movement was also highly ranked, as was understanding the extent to which O&G structures contribute to extending species distributions by providing rest stops, foraging habitat, and stepping stones. These questions could be addressed with further dedicated studies of animal movement in relation to structures using telemetry, molecular techniques and movement models. Our review and these priority questions provide a roadmap for advancing research needed to support evidence-based decision making for decommissioning O&G infrastructure.

Limitations to coral recovery along an environmental stress gradient

Positive feedbacks driving habitat-forming species recovery and population growth are often lost as ecosystems degrade. For such systems, identifying mechanisms that limit the re-establishment of critical positive feedbacks is key to facilitating recovery. Theory predicts the primary drivers limiting system recovery shift from biological to physical as abiotic stress increases, but recent work has demonstrated that this seldom happens. We combined field and laboratory experiments to identify variation in limitations to coral recovery along an environmental stress gradient at Ningaloo Reef and Exmouth Gulf in northwest Australia. Many reefs in the region are coral depauperate due to recent cyclones and thermal stress. In general, recovery trajectories are prolonged due to limited coral recruitment. Consistent with theory, clearer water reefs under low thermal stress appear limited by biological interactions: competition with turf algae caused high mortality of newly settled corals and upright macroalgal stands drove mortality in transplanted juvenile corals. Laboratory experiments showed a positive relationship between crustose coralline algae cover and coral settlement, but only in the absence of sedimentation. Contrary to expectation, coral recovery does not appear limited by the survival or growth of recruits on turbid reefs under higher thermal stress, but to exceptionally low larval supply. Laboratory experiments showed that larval survival and settlement are unaffected by seawater quality across the study region. Rather, connectivity models predicted that many of the more turbid reefs in the Gulf are predominantly self seeded, receiving limited supply under degraded reef states. Overall, we find that the influence of oceanography can overwhelm the influences of physical and biological interactions on recovery potential at locations where environmental stressors are high, whereas populations in relatively benign physical conditions are predominantly structured by local ecological drivers. Such context-dependent information can help guide expectations and assist managers in optimizing strategies for spatial conservation planning for system recovery.

Optimizing coral reef recovery with context-specific management actions at prioritized reefs

Assisting the natural recovery of coral reefs through local management actions is needed in response to increasing ecosystem disturbances in the Anthropocene. There is growing evidence that commonly used resilience-based passive management approaches may not be sufficient to maintain coral reef key functions. We synthesize and discuss advances in coral reef recovery research, and its application to coral reef conservation and restoration practices. We then present a framework to guide the decision-making of reef managers, scientists and other stakeholders, to best support reef recovery after a disturbance. The overall aim of this management framework is to catalyse reef recovery, to minimize recovery times, and to limit the need for ongoing management interventions into the future. Our framework includes two main stages: first, a prioritization method for assessment following a large-scale disturbance, which is based on a reef's social-ecological values, and on a classification of the likelihood of recovery or succession resulting in degraded, novel, hybrid or historical states. Second, a flow chart to assist with determining management actions for highly valued reefs. Potential actions are chosen based on the ecological attributes of the disturbed reef, defined during ecological assessments. Depending on the context, management actions may include (1) substrata rehabilitation actions to facilitate natural coral recruitment, (2) repopulating actions using active restoration techniques, (3) resilience-based management actions and (4) monitoring coral recruitment and growth to assess the effectiveness of management interventions. We illustrate the proposed decision framework with a case study of typhoon-damaged eastern outer reefs in Palau, Micronesia. The decisions made following this framework lead to the conclusion that some reefs may not return to their historical state for many decades. However, if motivation and funds are available, new management approaches can be explored to assist coral reefs at valued locations to return to a functional state providing key ecosystem services.

Coral larval recruitment in north-western Australia predicted by regional and local conditions

Understanding ecological processes that shape contemporary and future communities facilitates knowledge-based environmental management. In marine ecosystems, one of the most important processes is the supply of new recruits into a population. Here, we investigated spatiotemporal variability in coral recruitment at 15 reefs throughout the Dampier Archipelago, north-western Australia between 2015 and 2017 and identified the best environmental predictors for coral recruitment patterns over this period. Large differences in recruitment were observed among years with the average density of recruits increasing by 375% from 0.017 recruits cm^-2 in 2015 to 0.059 recruits cm^-2 in 2017. Despite differences in recruitment among years, the rank order of coral recruit density among reefs remained similar among years, suggesting that spatial variation in recruitment within the Dampier Archipelago is partly deterministic and predictable. The density of coral recruits was best explained by percent cover of live corals at both local (within 5 m) and meso-scales (within 15 km), water turbidity and an oceanographic model that predicted larval dispersal. The highest density of coral recruits (~0.13 recruits cm^-2 or 37 recruits per tile) occurred on reefs within sub-regions (15 km) with greater than 35% coral cover, low to moderate turbidity (KD490 < 0.2) and moderate to high modelled predictions of larval dispersal. Our results demonstrate that broad-scale larval dispersal models, when combined with local metrics of percent hard coral cover and water turbidity, can reliably predict the relative abundance of coral recruits over large geographical areas and thus can identify hotspots of recruit abundance and potential recovery following environmental disturbances; information that is essential for effective management of coral reefs.