Managing ecosystems in a sea of uncertainty: invasive species management and assisted colonizations

Unlocking ensemble ecosystem modelling for large and complex networks

The potential effects of conservation actions on threatened species can be predicted using ensemble ecosystem models by forecasting populations with and without intervention. These model ensembles commonly assume stable coexistence of species in the absence of available data. However, existing ensemble-generation methods become computationally inefficient as the size of the ecosystem network increases, preventing larger networks from being studied. We present a novel sequential Monte Carlo sampling approach for ensemble generation that is orders of magnitude faster than existing approaches. We demonstrate that the methods produce equivalent parameter inferences, model predictions, and tightly constrained parameter combinations using a novel sensitivity analysis method. For one case study, we demonstrate a speed-up from 108 days to 6 hours, while maintaining equivalent ensembles. Additionally, we demonstrate how to identify the parameter combinations that strongly drive feasibility and stability, drawing ecological insight from the ensembles. Now, for the first time, larger and more realistic networks can be practically simulated and analysed.

A Taxonomy-Agnostic Approach to Targeted Microbiome Therapeutics-Leveraging Principles of Systems Biology

The study of human microbiomes has yielded insights into basic science, and applied therapeutics are emerging. However, conflicting definitions of what microbiomes are and how they affect the health of the "host" are less understood. A major impediment towards systematic design, discovery, and implementation of targeted microbiome therapeutics is the continued reliance on taxonomic indicators to define microbiomes in health and disease. Such reliance often confounds analyses, potentially suggesting associations where there are none, and conversely failing to identify significant, causal relationships. This review article discusses recent discoveries pointing towards a molecular understanding of microbiome "dysbiosis" and away from a purely taxonomic approach. We highlight the growing role of systems biological principles in the complex interrelationships between the gut microbiome and host cells, and review current approaches commonly used in targeted microbiome therapeutics, including fecal microbial transplant, bacteriophage therapies, and the use of metabolic toxins to selectively eliminate specific taxa from dysbiotic microbiomes. These approaches, however, remain wholly or partially dependent on the bacterial taxa involved in dysbiosis, and therefore may not capitalize fully on many therapeutic opportunities presented at the bioactive molecular level. New technologies capable of addressing microbiome-associated diseases as molecular problems, if solved, will open possibilities of new classes and categories of targeted microbiome therapeutics aimed, in principle, at all dysbiosis-driven disorders.

Genetics of randomly bred cats support the cradle of cat domestication being in the Near East

Cat domestication likely initiated as a symbiotic relationship between wildcats (Felis silvestris subspecies) and the peoples of developing agrarian societies in the Fertile Crescent. As humans transitioned from hunter-gatherers to farmers ~12,000 years ago, bold wildcats likely capitalized on increased prey density (i.e., rodents). Humans benefited from the cats' predation on these vermin. To refine the site(s) of cat domestication, over 1000 random-bred cats of primarily Eurasian descent were genotyped for single-nucleotide variants and short tandem repeats. The overall cat population structure suggested a single worldwide population with significant isolation by the distance of peripheral subpopulations. The cat population heterozygosity decreased as genetic distance from the proposed cat progenitor's (F.s. lybica) natural habitat increased. Domestic cat origins are focused in the eastern Mediterranean Basin, spreading to nearby islands, and southernly via the Levantine coast into the Nile Valley. Cat population diversity supports the migration patterns of humans and other symbiotic species.

Modeling total predation to avoid perverse outcomes from cat control in a data-poor island ecosystem

Data hungry, complex ecosystem models are often used to predict the consequences of threatened species management, including perverse outcomes. Unfortunately, this approach is impractical in many systems, which have insufficient data to parameterize ecosystem interactions or reliably calibrate or validate such models. Here we demonstrate a different approach, using a minimum realistic model to guide decisions in data- and resource-scarce systems. We illustrate our approach with a case-study in an invaded ecosystem from Christmas Island, Australia, where there are concerns that cat eradication to protect native species, including the red-tailed tropicbird, could release meso-predation by invasive rats. We use biophysical constraints (metabolic demand) and observable parameters (e.g. prey preferences) to assess the combined cat and rat abundances which would threaten the tropicbird population. We find that the population of tropicbirds cannot be sustained if predated by 1607 rats (95% credible interval (CI) [103, 5910]) in the absence of cats, or 21 cats (95% CI [2, 82]) in the absence of rats. For every cat removed from the island, the bird's net population growth rate improves, provided that the rats do not increase by more than 77 individuals (95% CI [30, 174]). Thus, in this context, one cat is equivalent to 30-174 rats. Our methods are especially useful for on-the-ground predator control in the absence of knowledge of predator-predator interactions, to assess whether 1) the current abundance of predators threatens the prey population of interest, 2) managing one predator species alone is sufficient to protect the prey species given potential release of another predator, and 3) control of multiple predator species is needed to meet the conservation goal. Our approach demonstrates how to use limited information for maximum value in data-poor systems, by shifting the focus from predicting future trajectories, to identifying conditions which threaten the conservation goal. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Rethinking the Animal Shelter's Role in Free-Roaming Cat Management

Substantial societal investment is made in the management of free-roaming cats by various methods, with goals of such programs commonly including wildlife conservation, public health protection, nuisance abatement, and/or promotion of cat health and welfare. While there has been a degree of controversy over some of the tactics employed, there is widespread agreement that any method must be scientifically based and sufficiently focused, intensive and sustained in order to succeed. The vast majority of free-roaming cat management in communities takes place through local animal shelters. Throughout the 20th century and into the 21st, this consisted primarily of ad hoc admission of cats captured by members of the public, with euthanasia being the most common outcome. In North America alone, hundreds of millions of cats have been impounded and euthanized and billions of dollars invested in such programs. Given the reliance on this model to achieve important societal goals, it is surprising that there has been an almost complete lack of published research evaluating its success. Wildlife conservation and public health protection will be better served when debate about the merits and pitfalls of methods such as Trap-Neuter-Return is grounded in the context of realistically achievable alternatives. Where no perfect answer exists, an understanding of the potential strengths and shortcomings of each available strategy will support the greatest possible mitigation of harm—the best, if still imperfect, solution. Animal shelter function will also benefit by discontinuing investment in methods that are ineffective as well as potentially ethically problematic. This will allow the redirection of resources to more promising strategies for management of cats as well as investment in other important animal shelter functions. To this end, this article reviews evidence regarding the potential effectiveness of the three possible shelter-based strategies for free-roaming cat management: the traditional approach of ad hoc removal by admission to the shelter; admission to the shelter followed by sterilization and return to the location found; and leaving cats in place with or without referral to mitigation strategies or services provided by other agencies.

Predicting the sign of trophic effects: individual-based simulation versus loop analysis

Food web research needs to be predictive in order to support decisions system-based conservation. In order to increase predictability and applicability, complexity needs to be managed in such a way that we are able to provide simple and clear results. One question emerging frequently is whether certain perturbations (environmental effects or human impact) have positive or negative effects on natural ecosystems or their particular components. Yet, most of food web studies do not consider the sign of effects. Here, we study 6 versions of the Kelian River (Borneo) food web, representing six study sites along the river. For each network, we study the signs of the effects of a perturbed trophic group i on each other j groups. We compare the outcome of the relatively complicated dynamical simulation model and the relatively simple loop analysis model. We compare these results for the 6 sites and also the 14 trophic groups. Finally, we see if sign-agreement and sign-determinacy depend on certain structural features (node centrality, interaction strength). We found major differences between different modelling scenarios, with herbivore-detritivore fish behaving in the most consistent, while algae and particulate organic matter behaving in the least consistent way. We also found higher agreement between the signs of predictions for trophic groups at higher trophic levels in sites 1–3 and at lower trophic levels in site 4–6. This means that the behaviour of predators in the more natural sections of the river and that of producers at the more human-impacted sections are more consistently predicted. This suggests to be more careful with the less consistently predictable trophic groups in conservation management.