Variations in age- and sex-specific survival rates help explain population trend in a discrete marine mammal population

Organohalogen contaminants threaten the survival of indo-pacific humpback dolphin calves in their largest habitat

As long-lived apex predators, marine mammal adults often accumulate alarmingly levels of environmental contaminants. Nevertheless, the accumulation and risks of these contaminants in the critical calf stage of marine mammals remain largely unknown. Here, we investigated the exposure status and health risks of 74 organohalogen contaminants (OHCs) in Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin calves (Sousa chinensis) collected from the Pearl River Estuary (PRE), China, during 2005-2019. Our findings revealed moderate levels of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), medium-high levels of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs) and hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs), and the highest levels of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and alternative halogenated flame retardants (AHFRs) compared to those reported for cetaceans elsewhere. Traditional OHCs like DDTs, PCBs, and PBDEs did not exhibit significant decreasing trends in the dolphin calves despite global restrictions on these compounds, and AHFRs as emerging OHCs showed an increasing trend over the study period. Risk quotients of DDTs, HCHs, PBDEs, and PCBs in most of the dolphin samples were > 1, indicating that humpback dolphin calves may have suffered long-term threats from OHC exposure. The significant correlation observed between the traditional OHC levels and the stranding death number of the dolphin calves suggests these OHCs may impact the survival of this endangered species.

Dolphin social phenotypes vary in response to food availability but not the North Atlantic Oscillation index

Social behaviours can allow individuals to flexibly respond to environmental change, potentially buffering adverse effects. However, individuals may respond differently to the same environmental stimulus, complicating predictions for population-level response to environmental change. Here, we show that bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) alter their social behaviour at yearly and monthly scales in response to a proxy for food availability (salmon abundance) but do not respond to variation in a proxy for climate (the North Atlantic Oscillation index). There was also individual variation in plasticity for gregariousness and connectedness to distant parts of the social network, although these traits showed limited repeatability. By contrast, individuals showed consistent differences in clustering with their immediate social environment at the yearly scale but no individual variation in plasticity for this trait at either timescale. These results indicate that social behaviour in free-ranging cetaceans can be highly resource dependent with individuals increasing their connectedness over short timescales but possibly reducing their wider range of connection at longer timescales. Some social traits showed more individual variation in plasticity or mean behaviour than others, highlighting how predictions for the responses of populations to environmental variation must consider the type of individual variation present in the population.

Demographic effects of road mortality on mammalian populations: a systematic review

In light of rapidly expanding road networks worldwide, there is increasing global awareness of the growing amount of mammalian roadkill. However, the ways in which road mortality affects the population dynamics of different species remains largely unclear. We aimed to categorise the demographic parameters in mammalian populations around the world that are directly or indirectly affected by road mortality, as well as identify the most effective study designs for quantifying population-level consequences of road mortality. We conducted a comprehensive systematic review to synthesise literature published between 2000 and 2021 and out of 11,238 unique studies returned, 83 studies were retained comprising 69 mammalian species and 150 populations. A bias towards research-intensive countries and larger mammals was apparent. Although searches were conducted in five languages, all studies meeting the inclusion criteria were in English. Relatively few studies (13.3%) provided relevant demographic context to roadkill figures, hampering understanding of the impacts on population persistence. We categorised five direct demographic parameters affected by road mortality: sex- and age-biased mortality, the percentage of a population killed on roads per year (values up to 50% were reported), the contribution of roadkill to total mortality rates (up to 80%), and roadkill during inter-patch or long-distance movements. Female-biased mortality may be more prevalent than previously recognised and is likely to be critical to population dynamics. Roadkill was the greatest source of mortality for 28% of studied populations and both additive and compensatory mechanisms to roadkill were found to occur, bringing varied challenges to conservation around roads. In addition, intra-specific population differences in demographic effects of road mortality were common. This highlights that the relative importance of road mortality is likely to be context specific as the road configuration and habitat quality surrounding a population can vary. Road ecology studies that collect data on key life parameters, such as age/stage/sex-specific survival and dispersal success, and that use a combination of methods are critical in understanding long-term impacts. Quantifying the demographic impacts of road mortality is an important yet complex consideration for proactive road management.

Quantifying the age structure of free-ranging delphinid populations: Testing the accuracy of Unoccupied Aerial System photogrammetry

Understanding the population health status of long-lived and slow-reproducing species is critical for their management. However, it can take decades with traditional monitoring techniques to detect population-level changes in demographic parameters. Early detection of the effects of environmental and anthropogenic stressors on vital rates would aid in forecasting changes in population dynamics and therefore inform management efforts. Changes in vital rates strongly correlate with deviations in population growth, highlighting the need for novel approaches that can provide early warning signs of population decline (e.g., changes in age structure). We tested a novel and frequentist approach, using Unoccupied Aerial System (UAS) photogrammetry, to assess the population age structure of small delphinids. First, we measured the precision and accuracy of UAS photogrammetry in estimating total body length (TL) of trained bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus). Using a log-transformed linear model, we estimated TL using the blowhole to dorsal fin distance (BHDF) for surfacing animals. To test the performance of UAS photogrammetry to age-classify individuals, we then used length measurements from a 35-year dataset from a free-ranging bottlenose dolphin community to simulate UAS estimates of BHDF and TL. We tested five age classifiers and determined where young individuals (<10 years) were assigned when misclassified. Finally, we tested whether UAS-simulated BHDF only or the associated TL estimates provided better classifications. TL of surfacing dolphins was overestimated by 3.3% ±3.1% based on UAS-estimated BHDF. Our age classifiers performed best in predicting age-class when using broader and fewer (two and three) age-class bins with ~80% and ~72% assignment performance, respectively. Overall, 72.5%-93% of the individuals were correctly classified within 2 years of their actual age-class bin. Similar classification performances were obtained using both proxies. UAS photogrammetry is a non-invasive, inexpensive, and effective method to estimate TL and age-class of free-swimming dolphins. UAS photogrammetry can facilitate the detection of early signs of population changes, which can provide important insights for timely management decisions.

Age- and sex-specific survivorship of the Southern Hemisphere long-finned pilot whale (Globicephala melas edwardii)

Biodiversity loss is a major global challenge of the 21st century. Ultimately, extinctions of species are determined by birth and death rates; thus, conservation management of at-risk species is dependent on robust demographic data. In this study, data gathered from 381 (227 females, 154 males) long-finned pilot whales (Globicephala melas edwardii) that died in 14 stranding events on the New Zealand coast between 2006 and 2017 were used to construct the first age- and sex-specific life tables for the subspecies. Survivorship curves were fitted to these data using (1) a traditional maximum likelihood approach, and (2) Siler's competing-risk model. Life table construction and subsequent survival curves revealed distinct differences in the age- and sex-specific survival rates, with females outliving males. Both sexes revealed slightly elevated rates of mortality among the youngest age-classes (<2 years) with postweaning mortality rates decreasing and remaining relatively low until the average life expectancy is reached; 11.3 years for males and 14.7 years for females. Overall (total) mortality is estimated to be 8.8% and 6.8% per annum for males and females, respectively. The mortality curve resembles that of other large mammals, with high calf mortality, lower postweaning mortality, and an exponentially increasing risk of senescent mortality. An accelerated mortality rate was observed in mature females, in contrast to the closely related short-finned pilot whale (G. macrorhynchus), which selects for an extension to the postreproductive life span. The reason for the observed differences in the mortality rate acceleration and postreproductive life span between the two pilot whale species have not been established and warrant further investigation. Obtaining robust information on the life history of long-lived species is challenging, but essential to improve our understanding of population dynamics and help predict how future pressures may impact populations. This study illustrates how demographic data from cetacean stranding events can improve knowledge of species survival rates, thus providing essential information for conservation management.

Investigating local population dynamics of bottlenose dolphins in the northern Bahamas and the impact of hurricanes on survival

Little Bahama Bank in the northern Bahamas supports several populations of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus). We provide the first estimates of birth rate and age-class-specific apparent survival rates for the local South Abaco population using data from a long-term (1997–2014) photo-identification (photo-ID) study and use the estimated life history parameters in a population viability analysis (PVA) to predict future population trends. Hurricane events are predicted to become more intense due to climate change but knowledge of how hurricanes may impact cetacean populations is limited. Little Bahama Bank is subject to hurricane activity, so we also investigate the potential impact of hurricanes on calf, juvenile and adult survival. Photo-ID data confirmed the existence of a core adult population with relatively high site fidelity in South Abaco, but also evidence of transient animals. Estimated annual birth rate was 0.278 (95% CI: 0.241–0.337). We found strong support for a decline in apparent survival for all age-classes. Estimated survival declined by 9% in adults (0.941 in 1998, to 0.855 in 2013), 5% in juveniles (0.820 in 2000, to 0.767 in 2013) and 36% in calves (0.970 in 1997, to 0.606 in 2013). Evidence that survival was influenced by repeated hurricane activity leading to increased mortality and/or emigration was stronger for calves and juveniles than for adults. PVA simulations of an assumed isolated South Abaco population showed that declines would lead to extinction within decades, even under the most optimistic scenario. Future work should focus on establishing if South Abaco is part of natural source–sink metapopulation dynamics on Little Bahama Bank by assessing trends in abundance in local populations and establishing how they interact; this will be important for assessing their conservation status in a potentially increasingly changing environment.

Effect of matching uncertainty on population parameter estimation in mark-recapture analysis of photo-identification data

Quantifying and dealing with uncertainty are key aspects of ecological studies. Population parameter estimation from mark-recapture analyses of photo-identification data hinges on correctly matching individuals from photographs and assumes that identifications are detected with certainty, marks are not lost over time, and that individuals are recognised when they are resighted. Matching photographs is an inherently subjective process. Traditionally, two photographs are not considered a “match” unless the photo reviewer is 100% certain. This decision may carry implications with respect to sample size and the bias and precision of the resultant parameter estimates. Here, we present results from a photo-identification experiment on Pacific white-sided dolphins to assign one of three levels of certainty that a pair of photographs represented a match. We then illustrate how estimates of abundance and survival varied as a function of the matching certainty threshold used. As expected, requiring 100% certainty of a match resulted in fewer matches, which in turn led to higher estimates of abundance and lower estimates of survival than if a lower threshold were used to determine a match. The tradition to score two photographs as a match only when the photo reviewer is 100% certain stems from a desire to be conservative, but potential over-estimation of abundance means that there may be applications (e.g., assessing sustainability of bycatch) in which it is not precautionary. We recommend exploring the consequences of matching uncertainty and incorporating that uncertainty into the resulting estimates of abundance and survival.

Killer whale (Orcinus orca) population dynamics in response to a period of rapid ecosystem change in the eastern North Atlantic

This study investigates survival and abundance of killer whales (Orcinus orca) in Norway in 1988-2019 using capture-recapture models of photo-identification data. We merged two datasets collected in a restricted fjord system in 1988-2008 (Period 1) with a third, collected after their preferred herring prey shifted its wintering grounds to more exposed coastal waters in 2012-2019 (Period 2), and investigated any differences between these two periods. The resulting dataset, spanning 32 years, comprised 3284 captures of 1236 whales, including 148 individuals seen in both periods. The best-supported models of survival included the effects of sex and time period, and the presence of transients (whales seen only once). Period 2 had a much larger percentage of transients compared to Period 1 (mean = 30% vs. 5%) and the identification of two groups of whales with different residency patterns revealed heterogeneity in recapture probabilities. This caused estimates of survival rates to be biased downward (females: 0.955 ± 0.027 SE, males: 0.864 ± 0.038 SE) compared to Period 1 (females: 0.998 ± 0.002 SE, males: 0.985 ± 0.009 SE). Accounting for this heterogeneity resulted in estimates of apparent survival close to unity for regularly seen whales in Period 2. A robust design model for Period 2 further supported random temporary emigration at an estimated annual probability of 0.148 (± 0.095 SE). This same model estimated a peak in annual abundance in 2015 at 1061 individuals (95% CI 999-1127), compared to a maximum of 731 (95% CI 505-1059) previously estimated in Period 1, and dropped to 513 (95% CI 488-540) in 2018. Our results indicate variations in the proportion of killer whales present of an undefined population (or populations) in a larger geographical region. Killer whales have adjusted their distribution to shifts in key prey resources, indicating potential to adapt to rapidly changing marine ecosystems.

Of Whales and Genes: Unraveling the Physiological Response to Stressors in Belugas (Delphinapterus leucas) at the Molecular Level

Marine mammals, now more than ever, are exposed to environmental and anthropogenic stressors. A better understanding of stress physiology in marine mammals is warranted in order to assist in conservation efforts. This study screened gene expression profiles (cytokines, stress-response markers) in blood samples collected opportunistically under controlled conditions from aquarium belugas during transport and introduction to a novel environment (T/NEnv), participation in out-of-water examinations (OWE) and from wild belugas during live capture–release health assessments (WLCR). Quantitative-PCR was used to measure gene expression involved in physiological and immune responses at different time scales. Linear mixed models with repeated measures and pairwise comparisons were used for analysis. Overall, a generalized down-regulation of relative gene expression when compared to samples collected under behavioral control from aquarium whales or to pre-assessment samples of wild whales was observed, with genes IFNγ, IL2, TGFβ and Nr3c1 displaying the largest significant (p < 0.05) changes. Significant (p < 0.05) negative associations of inflammatory gene expression with norepinephrine suggest inhibitory effects of catecholamines on the inflammatory response. Overall, this study contributes to our understanding of the physiological response to stressors at the molecular level in belugas, and the genes suggested here can further be utilized as additional tools in beluga health assessments and monitoring.

Joint estimation of survival and breeding probability in female dolphins and calves with uncertainty in state assignment

While the population growth rate in long-lived species is highly sensitive to adult survival, reproduction can also significantly drive population dynamics. Reproductive parameters can be challenging to estimate as breeders and nonbreeders may vary in resighting probability and reproductive status may be difficult to assess. We extended capture-recapture (CR) models previously fitted for data on other long-lived marine mammals to estimate demographic parameters while accounting for detection heterogeneity between individuals and state uncertainty regarding reproductive status. We applied this model to data on 106 adult female bottlenose dolphins observed over 13 years. The detection probability differed depending on breeding status. Concerning state uncertainty, offspring were not always sighted with their mother, and older calves were easier to detect than young-of-the-year (YOY), respectively, 0.79 (95% CI 0.59-0.90) and 0.58 (95% CI 0.46-0.68). This possibly led to inaccurate reproductive status assignment of females. Adult female survival probability was high (0.97 CI 95% 0.96-0.98) and did not differ according to breeding status. Young-of-the-year and 1-year-old calves had a significantly higher survival rate than 2-year-old (respectively, 0.66 CI 95% 0.50-0.78 and 0.45 CI 95% 0.29-0.61). This reduced survival is probably related to weaning, a period during which young are exposed to more risks since they lose protection and feeding from the mother. The probability of having a new YOY was high for breeding females that had raised a calf to the age of 3 or lost a 2-year-old calf (0.71, CI 95% 0.45-0.88). Yet, this probability was much lower for nonbreeding females and breeding females that had lost a YOY or a 1-year-old calf (0.33, 95% CI 0.26-0.42). The multievent CR framework we used is highly flexible and could be easily modified for other study questions or taxa (marine or terrestrial) aimed at modeling reproductive parameters.

Increasing trends in fecundity and calf survival of bottlenose dolphins in a marine protected area

Estimates of temporal variation in demographic rates are critical for identifying drivers of population change and supporting conservation. However, for inconspicuous wide-ranging species, births may be missed and fecundity rates underestimated. We address this issue using photo-identification data and a novel robust design multistate model to investigate changes in bottlenose dolphin fecundity and calf survival. The model allows for uncertainty in breeding status, and seasonal effects. The best model estimated an increase in the proportion of females with newborn calves from 0.16 (95% CI = 0.11-0.24) in 2001 to 0.28 (95% CI = 0.22-0.36) in 2016. First year calf survival also increased over this period from 0.78 (95% CI = 0.53-0.92) to 0.93 (95% CI = 0.82-0.98). Second year calf survival remained lower, but also showed an increase from 0.32 (95% CI = 0.19-0.48) to 0.55 (95% CI = 0.44-0.65). Females with newborn calves had a slightly higher mortality than those with older calves, but further work is required to evaluate potential costs of reproduction. This study presents a rare example of empirical evidence of a positive trend in reproduction and survival for a cetacean population using a Marine Protected Area.