Evolutionary history predicts high-impact invasions by herbivorous insects

Identifying the generalizable controls on insect associations of native and non-native trees

Trees growing outside their native geographic ranges often exhibit exceptional growth and survival due in part to the lack of co-evolved natural enemies that may limit their spread and suppress population growth. While most non-native trees tend to accumulate natural enemies over time, it remains uncertain which host and insect characteristics affect these novel associations and whether novel associations follow patterns of assembly similar to those of native hosts. Here, we used a dataset of insect-host tree associations in Europe to model which native insect species are paired with which native tree species, and then tested the model on its ability to predict which native insects are paired with which non-native trees. We show that native and non-native tree species closely related to known hosts are more likely to be hosts themselves, but that native host geographic range size, insect feeding guild, and sampling effort similarly affect insect associations. Our model had a strong ability to predict which insect species utilize non-native trees as hosts, but evolutionarily isolated tree species posed the greatest challenge to the model. These results demonstrate that insect-host associations can be reliably predicted, regardless of whether insect and host trees have co-evolved, and provide a framework for predicting future pest threats using a select number of easily attainable tree and insect characteristics.

Hosts and impacts of elongate hemlock scale (Hemiptera: Diaspididae): A critical review

Fiorinia externa Ferris, elongate hemlock scale, was inadvertently introduced to North America from Japan. This insect is particularly problematic on hemlock, Tsuga spp., though it has been reported in association with several other conifers. The evidence that other conifers might be hosts, capable of supporting growing populations of the insect, has not been previously reviewed. Our review confirms that F. externa is an oligophagous pest of members of Pinaceae. Although species of Cupressaceae and Taxaceae have been reported as hosts of F. externa, they seem unable to support population growth of this pest. Evidence of the tree-killing potential of the insect, even on suitable hosts, is remarkably scant. The degree of pest risk posed by F. externa with respect to tree mortality in areas beyond the geographic range of hemlock seems modest, but uncertain.

Insect wood borers on commercial North American tree species growing in China: review of Chinese peer-review and grey literature

Invasive insect wood borers are a threat to global forests and tree-related industries as they can damage trees and spread plant pathogens. Reports of damages by wood borers on plants that were planted overseas may facilitate the identification of potential invaders and speed up risk assessment. However, much of this information remains unavailable to the international plant protection community due to language barriers, lack of digitization, or limited circulation of regional literature. Here, we investigated reports of wood borers on 7 important North American commercial tree species planted in China (Carya illinoinensis, Liquidambar styraciflua, Pinus elliottii, Pinus taeda, Quercus texana, Quercus rubra, and Quercus virginiana) in peer-reviewed as well as "grey" (nonpeer-reviewed) Chinese literature. A total of 60 unique wood borer records were found, yielding reports of 4 orders, 39 genera, and 44 species of insect wood borers. Among Coleoptera, longhorned beetles (Cerambycidae) were the most commonly reported colonizers of North American trees in China. Chinese peer-reviewed reports of pests on alien plants are a valuable tool to survey for potential wood-boring invaders of North America, and wherever North American trees are planted and have the potential to encounter Asian invasive insects. Digitization and dissemination of non-English literature are essential for contemporary risk assessment. On the other hand, the nonpeer reviewed "grey" literature, primarily agency reports and student theses, provided only 5% of the records; many incidental observations were unreliable.

Phylogenetic risk assessment is robust for forecasting the impact of European insects on North American conifers

Some introduced species cause severe damage, although the majority have little impact. Robust predictions of which species are most likely to cause substantial impacts could focus efforts to mitigate those impacts or prevent certain invasions entirely. Introduced herbivorous insects can reduce crop yield, fundamentally alter natural and managed forest ecosystems, and are unique among invasive species in that they require certain host plants to succeed. Recent studies have demonstrated that understanding the evolutionary history of introduced herbivores and their host plants can provide robust predictions of impact. Specifically, divergence times between hosts in the native and introduced ranges of a nonnative insect can be used to predict the potential impact of the insect should it establish in a novel ecosystem. However, divergence time estimates vary among published phylogenetic datasets, making it crucial to understand if and how the choice of phylogeny affects prediction of impact. Here, we tested the robustness of impact prediction to variation in host phylogeny by using insects that feed on conifers and predicting the likelihood of high impact using four different published phylogenies. Our analyses ranked 62 insects that are not established in North America and 47 North American conifer species according to overall risk and vulnerability, respectively. We found that results were robust to the choice of phylogeny. Although published vascular plant phylogenies continue to be refined, our analysis indicates that those differences are not substantial enough to alter the predictions of invader impact. Our results can assist in focusing biosecurity programs for conifer pests and can be more generally applied to nonnative insects and their potential hosts by prioritizing surveillance for those insects most likely to be damaging invaders.

Managing for the unexpected: Building resilient forest landscapes to cope with global change

Natural disturbances exacerbated by novel climate regimes are increasing worldwide, threatening the ability of forest ecosystems to mitigate global warming through carbon sequestration and to provide other key ecosystem services. One way to cope with unknown disturbance events is to promote the ecological resilience of the forest by increasing both functional trait and structural diversity and by fostering functional connectivity of the landscape to ensure a rapid and efficient self-reorganization of the system. We investigated how expected and unexpected variations in climate and biotic disturbances affect ecological resilience and carbon storage in a forested region in southeastern Canada. Using a process-based forest landscape model (LANDIS-II), we simulated ecosystem responses to climate change and insect outbreaks under different forest policy scenarios-including a novel approach based on functional diversification and network analysis-and tested how the potentially most damaging insect pests interact with changes in forest composition and structure due to changing climate and management. We found that climate warming, lengthening the vegetation season, will increase forest productivity and carbon storage, but unexpected impacts of drought and insect outbreaks will drastically reduce such variables. Generalist, non-native insects feeding on hardwood are the most damaging biotic agents for our region, and their monitoring and early detection should be a priority for forest authorities. Higher forest diversity driven by climate-smart management and fostered by climate change that promotes warm-adapted species, might increase disturbance severity. However, alternative forest policy scenarios led to a higher functional and structural diversity as well as functional connectivity-and thus to higher ecological resilience-than conventional management. Our results demonstrate that adopting a landscape-scale perspective by planning interventions strategically in space and adopting a functional trait approach to diversify forests is promising for enhancing ecological resilience under unexpected global change stressors.

Addressing Gender Inequities in Forest Science and Research

Forest research and professional workforces continue to be dominated by men, particularly at senior and management levels. In this review, we identify some of the historical and ongoing barriers to improved gender inclusion and suggest some solutions. We showcase a selection of women in forestry from different disciplines and parts of the globe to highlight a range of research being conducted by women in forests. Boosting gender equity in forest disciplines requires a variety of approaches across local, regional and global scales. It is also important to include intersectional analyses when identifying barriers for women in forestry, but enhanced equity, diversity and inclusion will improve outcomes for forest ecosystems and social values of forests, with potential additional economic benefits.

Towards a phylogenetic ecology of plant pests and pathogens

Plant-pathogens and insect pests, hereafter pests, play an important role in structuring ecological communities, yet both native and introduced pests impose significant pressure on wild and managed systems, and pose a threat to food security. Global changes in climate and land use, and transportation of plants and pests around the globe are likely to further increase the range, frequency and severity of pest outbreaks in the future. Thus, there is a critical need to expand on current ecological theory to address these challenges. Here, we outline a phylogenetic framework for the study of plant and pest interactions. In plants, a growing body of work has suggested that evolutionary relatedness, phylogeny, strongly structures plant-pest associations-from pest host breadths and impacts, to their establishment and spread in new regions. Understanding the phylogenetic dimensions of plant-pest associations will help to inform models of invasive species spread, disease and pest risk in crops, and emerging pest outbreaks in native plant communities-which will have important implications for protecting food security and biodiversity into the future. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.

Host phylogenetic diversity predicts the global extent and composition of tree pests

Tree pests cause billions of dollars of damage annually; yet, we know little about what limits their regional composition and distribution. Here, we model the co-occurrence of 4510 pests and 981 tree host genera spread across 233 countries. We show the composition of tree pests is primarily driven by the phylogenetic composition of host trees, whereas effects of climate and geography tend to be more minor. Pests that utilise many hosts tend to be more widespread; however, most pests do not fill the geographic range of their hosts-indicating that many pests could expand their extents if able to overcome barriers limiting their current distribution. Our results suggest that the establishment of pests in new regions may be largely dictated by the presence of suitable host trees, but more work is needed to fully understand the influences climate has on the distributions of individual pest species.

Evolution of Disease Severity and Susceptibility in the Asteraceae to the Powdery Mildew Golovinomyces latisporus: Major Phylogenetic Structure Coupled With Highly Variable Disease Severity at Fine Scales

Pathogen host range and pathogen severity are dependent on interactions with their hosts and are hypothesized to have evolved as products of a coevolutionary arms race. An understanding of the factors that affect host range and pathogen severity is especially crucial in introduced pathogens that infect evolutionarily naïve hosts and cause substantial damage to ecosystems. Powdery mildews are detrimental pathogens found worldwide in managed and natural systems. Golovinomyces latisporus is a powdery mildew species that is especially damaging to plants within Asteraceae and to plants within the genus Helianthus in particular. In this study, we evaluated 126 species within Asteraceae to measure the role of host plant morphophysiological traits and evolutionary history on susceptibility to G. latisporus and disease severity. We observed phylogenetic signal in both susceptibility and severity within and among major clades of the Asteraceae. In general, there was a major phylogenetic structure of host severity to G. latisporus; however, there was some fine-scale phylogenetic variability. Phylogenetic statistical methods showed that chlorophyll content, biomass, stomatal index, and trichome density were not associated with disease severity, thus providing evidence that phylogenetic structure, rather than observed plant morphophysiological traits, is the most reliable predictor of pathogen severity. This work sheds light on the role that evolutionary history plays in plant susceptibility and severity to disease and underscores the relative unimportance of commonly assessed host plant traits in powdery mildew severity.

Negative effects of an allelopathic invader on AM fungal plant species drive community-level responses

The mechanisms causing invasive species impact are rarely empirically tested, limiting our ability to understand and predict subsequent changes in invaded plant communities. Invader disruption of native mutualistic interactions is a mechanism expected to have negative effects on native plant species. Specifically, disruption of native plant‐fungal mutualisms may provide non‐mycorrhizal plant invaders an advantage over mycorrhizal native plants. Invasive Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard) produces secondary chemicals toxic to soil microorganisms including mycorrhizal fungi, and is known to induce physiological stress and reduce population growth rates of native forest understory plant species. Here, we report on a 11‐yr manipulative field experiment in replicated forest plots testing if the effects of removal of garlic mustard on the plant community support the mutualism disruption hypothesis within the entire understory herbaceous community. We compare community responses for two functional groups: the mycorrhizal vs. the non‐mycorrhizal plant communities. Our results show that garlic mustard weeding alters the community composition, decreases community evenness, and increases the abundance of understory herbs that associate with mycorrhizal fungi. Conversely, garlic mustard has no significant effects on the non‐mycorrhizal plant community. Consistent with the mutualism disruption hypothesis, our results demonstrate that allelochemical producing invaders modify the plant community by disproportionately impacting mycorrhizal plant species. We also demonstrate the importance of incorporating causal mechanisms of biological invasion to elucidate patterns and predict community‐level responses.

Phylogenetic escape from pests reduces pesticides on some crop plants

Pesticides are a ubiquitous component of conventional crop production but come with considerable economic and ecological costs. We tested the hypothesis that variation in pesticide use among crop species is a function of crop economics and the phylogenetic relationship of a crop to native plants because unrelated crops accrue fewer herbivores and pathogens. Comparative analyses of a dataset of 93 Californian crops showed that more valuable crops and crops with close relatives in the native plant flora received greater pesticide use, explaining roughly half of the variance in pesticide use among crops against pathogens and herbivores. Phylogenetic escape from arthropod and pathogen pests results in lower pesticides, suggesting that the introduced status of some crops can be leveraged to reduce pesticides.

Modelling for risk and biosecurity related to forest health

Modelling the invasion and emergence of forest pests and pathogens (PnPs) is necessary to quantify the risk levels for forest health and provide key information for policy makers. Here, we make a short review of the models used to quantify the invasion risk of exotic species and the emergence risk of native species. Regarding the invasion process, models tackle each invasion phase, e.g. pathway models to describe the risk of entry, species distribution models to describe potential establishment, and dispersal models to describe (human-assisted) spread. Concerning the emergence process, models tackle each process: spread or outbreak. Only a few spread models describe jointly dispersal, growth, and establishment capabilities of native species while some mechanistic models describe the population temporal dynamics and inference models describe the probability of outbreak. We also discuss the ways to quantify uncertainty and the role of machine learning. Overall, promising directions are to increase the models’ genericity by parameterization based on meta-analysis techniques to combine the effect of species traits and various environmental drivers. Further perspectives consist in considering the models’ interconnection, including the assessment of the economic impact and risk mitigation options, as well as the possibility of having multi-risks and the reduction in uncertainty by collecting larger fit-for-purpose datasets.

Early warning systems in biosecurity; translating risk into action in predictive systems for invasive alien species

Invasive alien species (IAS) are one of the most severe threats to biodiversity and are the subject of varying degrees of surveillance activity. Predictive early warning systems (EWS), incorporating automated surveillance of relevant dataflows, warning generation and dissemination to decision makers are a key target for developing effective management around IAS, alongside more conventional early detection and horizon scanning technologies. Sophisticated modelling frameworks including the definition of the ‘risky’ species pool, and pathway analysis at the macro and micro-scale are increasingly available to support decision making and to help prioritise risks from different regions and/or taxa. The main challenges in constructing such frameworks, to be applied to border inspections, are (i) the lack of standardisation and integration of the associated complex digital data environments and (ii) effective integration into the decision making process, ensuring that risk information is disseminated in an actionable way to frontline surveillance staff and other decision makers. To truly achieve early warning in biosecurity requires close collaboration between developers and end-users to ensure that generated warnings are duly considered by decision makers, reflect best practice, scientific understanding and the working environment facing frontline actors. Progress towards this goal will rely on openness and mutual understanding of the role of EWS in IAS risk management, as much as on developments in the underlying technologies for surveillance and modelling procedures.

The impact is in the details: evaluating a standardized protocol and scale for determining non-native insect impact

Assessing the ecological and economic impacts of non-native species is crucial to providing managers and policymakers with the information necessary to respond effectively. Most non-native species have minimal impacts on the environment in which they are introduced, but a small fraction are highly deleterious. The definition of ‘damaging’ or ‘high-impact’ varies based on the factors determined to be valuable by an individual or group, but interpretations of whether non-native species meet particular definitions can be influenced by the interpreter’s bias or level of expertise, or lack of group consensus. Uncertainty or disagreement about an impact classification may delay or otherwise adversely affect policymaking on management strategies. One way to prevent these issues would be to have a detailed, nine-point impact scale that would leave little room for interpretation and then divide the scale into agreed upon categories, such as low, medium, and high impact. Following a previously conducted, exhaustive search regarding non-native, conifer-specialist insects, the authors independently read the same sources and scored the impact of 41 conifer-specialist insects to determine if any variation among assessors existed when using a detailed impact scale. Each of the authors, who were selected to participate in the working group associated with this study because of their diverse backgrounds, also provided their level of expertise and uncertainty for each insect evaluated. We observed 85% congruence in impact rating among assessors, with 27% of the insects having perfect inter-rater agreement. Variance in assessment peaked in insects with a moderate impact level, perhaps due to ambiguous information or prior assessor perceptions of these specific insect species. The authors also participated in a joint fact-finding discussion of two insects with the most divergent impact scores to isolate potential sources of variation in assessor impact scores. We identified four themes that could be experienced by impact assessors: ambiguous information, discounted details, observed versus potential impact, and prior knowledge. To improve consistency in impact decision-making, we encourage groups to establish a detailed scale that would allow all observed and published impacts to fall under a particular score, provide clear, reproducible guidelines and training, and use consensus-building techniques when necessary.

The Risk of Bark and Ambrosia Beetles Associated with Imported Non-Coniferous Wood and Potential Horizontal Phytosanitary Measures

Many bark and ambrosia beetle species (Coleoptera: Scolytinae and Platypodinae) are known to have spread worldwide in relation to international trade. Concerns have been expressed within the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization (EPPO) about recent introductions of non-indigenous species of these groups. Regulation of the non-coniferous wood trade into many EPPO member countries is currently not sufficient to cover such risks. In 2018–2019, an EPPO study on the risk of bark and ambrosia beetles associated with imported non-coniferous wood was carried out, and the key characteristics contributing to the pest risk from introduced species were determined using expert consensus. This paper summarizes the key findings of the study, which are available in full detail on the EPPO website. The study identified biological and other risk factors and illustrated them with examples from 26 beetle species or groups of species known to be invasive or posing a threat to plant health. These representative species were classified into three categories based on known damage and level of uncertainty. In the present article, factorial discriminant analyses were used to identify features of bark and ambrosia beetle biology associated with damage caused and invasiveness. Based on the information assembled and consideration of the risk factors, it was recommended that in order to prevent the introduction of new bark and ambrosia beetles via non-coniferous wood commodities, horizontal phytosanitary measures should be adopted, irrespective of the host plant species and the origin (i.e., for all genera of non-coniferous woody plants and from all origins). Phytosanitary measures are presented here for various wood commodities.