Predicting the success of an invader: Niche shift versus niche conservatism

Trends in mosquito species distribution modeling: insights for vector surveillance and disease control

Species distribution modeling (SDM) has become an increasingly common approach to explore questions about ecology, geography, outbreak risk, and global change as they relate to infectious disease vectors. Here, we conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature, screening 563 abstracts and identifying 204 studies that used SDMs to produce distribution estimates for mosquito species. While the number of studies employing SDM methods has increased markedly over the past decade, the overwhelming majority used a single method (maximum entropy modeling; MaxEnt) and focused on human infectious disease vectors or their close relatives. The majority of regional models were developed for areas in Africa and Asia, while more localized modeling efforts were most common for North America and Europe. Findings from this study highlight gaps in taxonomic, geographic, and methodological foci of current SDM literature for mosquitoes that can guide future efforts to study the geography of mosquito-borne disease risk.

The role of climate change and niche shifts in divergent range dynamics of a sister-species pair

Species ranges are set by limitations in factors including climate tolerances, habitat use, and dispersal abilities. Understanding the factors governing species range dynamics remains a challenge that is ever more important in our rapidly changing world. Species ranges can shift if environmental changes affect available habitat, or if the niche or habitat connectivity of a species changes. We tested how changes in habitat availability, niche, or habitat connectivity could contribute to divergent range dynamics in a sister-species pair. The great-tailed grackle (Quiscalus mexicanus) has expanded its range northward from Texas to Nebraska in the past 40 years, while its closest relative, the boattailed grackle (Quiscalus major), has remained tied to the coasts of the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico as well as the interior of Florida. We created species distribution and connectivity models trained on citizen science data from 1970-1979 and 2010-2019 to determine how the availability of habitat, the types of habitat occupied, and range-wide connectivity have changed for both species. We found that the two species occupy distinct habitats and that the great-tailed grackle has shifted to occupy a larger breadth of urban, arid environments farther from natural water sources. Meanwhile, the boattailed grackle has remained limited to warm, wet, coastal environments. We found no evidence that changes in habitat connectivity affected the ranges of either species. Overall, our results suggest that the great-tailed grackle has shifted its realized niche as part of its rapid range expansion, while the range dynamics of the boat-tailed grackle may be shaped more by climate change. The expansion in habitats occupied by the great-tailed grackle is consistent with observations that species with high behavioral flexibility can rapidly expand their geographic range by using human-altered habitat. This investigation identifies how opposite responses to anthropogenic change could drive divergent range dynamics, elucidating the factors that have and will continue to shape species ranges.

Genomic profiling of climate adaptation in Aedes aegypti along an altitudinal gradient in Nepal indicates nongradual expansion of the disease vector

Driven by globalization, urbanization and climate change, the distribution range of invasive vector species has expanded to previously colder ecoregions. To reduce health-threatening impacts on humans, insect vectors are extensively studied. Population genomics can reveal the genomic basis of adaptation and help to identify emerging trends of vector expansion. By applying whole genome analyses and genotype-environment associations to populations of the main dengue vector Aedes aegypti, sampled along an altitudinal gradient in Nepal (200-1300 m), we identify putatively adaptive traits and describe the species' genomic footprint of climate adaptation to colder ecoregions. We found two differentiated clusters with significantly different allele frequencies in genes associated to climate adaptation between the highland population (1300 m) and all other lowland populations (≤800 m). We revealed nonsynonymous mutations in 13 of the candidate genes associated to either altitude, precipitation or cold tolerance and identified an isolation-by-environment differentiation pattern. Other than the expected gradual differentiation along the altitudinal gradient, our results reveal a distinct genomic differentiation of the highland population. Local high-altitude adaptation could be one explanation of the population's phenotypic cold tolerance. Carrying alleles relevant for survival under colder climate increases the likelihood of this highland population to a worldwide expansion into other colder ecoregions.

Contradictory effect of climate change on American and European populations of Impatiens capensis Meerb. - is this herb a global threat?

AIMS

The present study is the first-ever attempt to generate information on the potential present and future distribution of Impatiens capensis (orange balsam) under various climate change scenarios. Moreover, the differences in bioclimatic preferences of native and non-native populations were evaluated.

LOCATION

Global.

TAXON

Angiosperms.

METHODS

A database of I. capensis localities was compiled based on the public database - the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), herbarium specimens, and a field survey in Poland. The initial dataset was verified, and each record was assigned to one of two groups - native (3664 records from North America) or non-native (750 records from Europe and the western part of North America). The analyses involved bioclimatic variables in 2.5 arc-minutes of interpolated climate surface downloaded from WorldClim v. 2.1. MaxEnt version 3.3.2 was used to conduct the ecological niche modeling based on presence-only observations of I. capensis. Forecasts of the future distribution of the climatic niches of the studied species in 2080-2100 were made based on climate projections developed by the CNRM/CERFACS modeling and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC-6).

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Distribution models created for "present time" showed slightly broader potential geographical ranges of both native and invasive populations of orange balsam. On the other hand, some areas (e.g. NW Poland, SW Finland), settled by the species, are far outside the modeled climate niche, which indicates a much greater adaptation potential of I. capensis. In addition, the models have shown that climate change will shift the native range of orange balsam to the north and the range of its European populations to the northwest. Moreover, while the coverage of niches suitable for I. capensis in America will extend due to climate change, the European populations will face 31-95 % habitat loss.

Genome-wide SNPs reveal novel patterns of spatial genetic structure in Aedes albopictus (Diptera Culicidae) population in China

Introduction

Since the second half of the 20th century, Aedes albopictus, a vector for more than 20 arboviruses, has spread worldwide. Aedes albopictus is the main vector of infectious diseases transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes in China, and it has caused concerns regarding public health. A comprehensive understanding of the spatial genetic structure of this vector species at a genomic level is essential for effective vector control and the prevention of vector-borne diseases.

Methods

During 2016-2018, adult female Ae. albopictus mosquitoes were collected from eight different geographical locations across China. Restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RAD-seq) was used for high-throughput identification of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and genotyping of the Ae. albopictus population. The spatial genetic structure was analyzed and compared to those exhibited by mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (cox1) and microsatellites in the Ae. albopictus population.

Results

A total of 9,103 genome-wide SNP loci in 101 specimens and 32 haplotypes of cox1 in 231 specimens were identified in the samples from eight locations in China. Principal component analysis revealed that samples from Lingshui and Zhanjiang were more genetically different than those from the other locations. The SNPs provided a better resolution and stronger signals for novel spatial population genetic structures than those from the cox1 data and a set of previously genotyped microsatellites. The fixation indexes from the SNP dataset showed shallow but significant genetic differentiation in the population. The Mantel test indicated a positive correlation between genetic distance and geographical distance. However, the asymmetric gene flow was detected among the populations, and it was higher from south to north and west to east than in the opposite directions.

Conclusions

The genome-wide SNPs revealed seven gene pools and fine spatial genetic structure of the Ae. albopictus population in China. The RAD-seq approach has great potential to increase our understanding of the spatial dynamics of population spread and establishment, which will help us to design new strategies for controlling vectors and mosquito-borne diseases.

Genomic shifts, phenotypic clines and fitness costs associated with cold-tolerance in the Asian tiger mosquito

Climatic variation is a key driver of genetic differentiation and phenotypic traits evolution, and local adaptation to temperature is expected in widespread species. We investigated phenotypic and genomic changes in the native range of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus. We first refine the phylogeographic structure based on genome-wide regions (1,901 ddRAD SNPs) from 41 populations. We then explore the patterns of cold adaptation using phenotypic traits measured in common garden (wing size and cold tolerance) and genotype–temperature associations at targeted candidate regions (51,706 exon capture SNPs) from 9 populations. We confirm the existence of three evolutionary lineages including clades A (Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, and Laos), B (China and Okinawa), and C (South Korea and Japan). We identified temperature-associated differentiation in fifteen out of 221 candidate regions but none in ddRAD regions, supporting the role of directional selection in detected genes. These include genes involved in lipid metabolism and a circadian clock gene. Most outlier SNPs are differently fixed between clades A and C, while clade B has an intermediate pattern. Females are larger at higher latitude yet produce no more eggs, which might favor the storage of energetic reserves in colder climate. Non-diapausing eggs from temperate populations survive better to cold exposure than those from tropical populations, suggesting they are protected from freezing damages but this cold tolerance has a fitness cost in terms of egg viability. Altogether, our results provide strong evidence for the thermal adaptation of A. albopictus across its wide temperature range.

Contrasting patterns from two invasion fronts suggest a niche shift of an invasive predator of native bees

Background

The accuracy of predictions of invasive species ranges is dependent on niche similarity between invasive and native populations and on our ability to identify the niche characteristics. With this work we aimed to compare the niche dynamics of two genetically related invasive populations of Vespa velutina (an effective predator of honeybees and wild pollinators), in two distinct climatic regions, one in central Europe and another one in the north-western Iberian Peninsula, and hence to identify uninvaded regions susceptible to invasion.

Methods

Niche dynamics and shifts of V. velutina were assessed by comparing the environmental niches of the native and of the two invasive populations, using climatic, topographic and land use variables. We also ran reciprocal distribution models using different algorithms and records from both native and invasive ranges to compare model predictions and estimate which regions are at a greater risk of being invaded.

Results

An apparent niche shift was detected in the population of the NW of Iberian Peninsula, where the species is living under environmental conditions different from the native niche. In central Europe, large suitable areas remain unoccupied. The fact that both invasive populations are well established, despite occupying environmentally distinct regions indicates that V. velutina has a high ability to successfully invade different environmental envelopes from those existing in its native range. For example, in north-western Iberian Peninsula the species is now thriving out of its native niche limits. Moreover, the large extent of still unoccupied environmental space with similar conditions to those used by the species in its native range suggests that there is still a large area of central and eastern Europe that can be potentially invaded by the species.

The ecophysiological plasticity of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus concerning overwintering in cooler ecoregions is driven by local climate and acclimation capacity

Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus transmit diseases such as dengue, and are of major public health concern. Driven by climate change and global trade/travel both species have recently spread to new tropic/subtropic regions and Ae. albopictus also to temperate ecoregions. The capacity of both species to adapt to new environments depends on their ecophysiological plasticity, which is the width of functional niches where a species can survive. Mechanistic distribution models often neglect to incorporate ecophysiological plasticity especially in regards to overwintering capacity in cooler habitats. To portray the ecophysiological plasticity concerning overwintering capability, we conducted temperature experiments with multiple populations of both species originating from an altitudinal gradient in South Asia and tested as follows: the cold tolerance of eggs (-2 °C- 8 days and - 6 °C- 2 days) without and with an experimental winter onset (acclimation: 10 °C- 60 days), differences between a South Asian and a European Ae. albopictus population and the temperature response in life cycles (13 °C, 18 °C, 23 °C, 28 °C). Ecophysiological plasticity in overwintering capacity in Ae. aegypti is high in populations originating from low altitude and in Ae. albopictus populations from high altitude. Overall, ecophysiological plasticity is higher in Ae. albopictus compared to Ae. aegypti. In both species acclimation and in Ae. albopictus temperate continental origin had a huge positive effect on survival. Our results indicate that future mechanistic prediction models can include data on winter survivorship of both, tropic and subtropic Ae. aegypti, whereas for Ae. albopictus this depends on the respective temperate, tropical region the model is focusing on. Future research should address cold tolerance in multiple populations worldwide to evaluate the full potential of the ecophysiological plasticity in the two species. Furthermore, we found that Ae. aegypti can survive winter cold especially when acclimated and will probably further spread to colder ecoregions driven by climate change.

The evolutionary dynamics of biological invasions: A multi-approach perspective

Biological invasions, the establishment and spread of non-native species in new regions, can have extensive economic and environmental consequences. Increased global connectivity accelerates introduction rates, while climate and land-cover changes may decrease the barriers to invasive populations spread. A detailed knowledge of the invasion history, including assessing source populations, routes of spread, number of independent introductions, and the effects of genetic bottlenecks and admixture on the establishment success, adaptive potential, and further spread, is crucial from an applied perspective to mitigate socioeconomic impacts of invasive species, as well as for addressing fundamental questions on the evolutionary dynamics of the invasion process. Recent advances in genomics together with the development of geographic information systems provide unprecedented large genetic and environmental datasets at global and local scales to link population genomics, landscape ecology, and species distribution modeling into a common framework to study the invasion process. Although the factors underlying population invasiveness have been extensively reviewed, analytical methods currently available to optimally combine molecular and environmental data for inferring invasive population demographic parameters and predicting further spreading are still under development. In this review, we focus on the few recent insect invasion studies that combine different datasets and approaches to show how integrating genetic, observational, ecological, and environmental data pave the way to a more integrative biological invasion science. We provide guidelines to study the evolutionary dynamics of invasions at each step of the invasion process, and conclude on the benefits of including all types of information and up-to-date analytical tools from different research areas into a single framework.

Seasonality and timing of peak abundance of <em>Aedes albopictus</em> in Europe: Implications to public and animal health

Aedes albopictus is a known vector of dengue and chikungunya. Understanding the population dynamics characteristics of vector species is of pivotal importance to optimise surveillance and control activities, to estimate risk for pathogen-transmission, and thus to enhance support of public health decisions. In this paper we used a seasonal activity model to simulate the start (spring hatching) and end (autumn diapause) of the vector season. In parallel, the peak abundance of the species was assessed using both VectorNet field survey data complemented with field studies obtained from literature across the Mediterranean Basin. Our results suggest that spring hatching of eggs in the current distribution area can start at the beginning of March in southern Europe and in April in western Europe. In northern Europe, where the species is not (yet) present, spring hatching would occur from late April to late May. Aedes albopictus can remain active up to 41 weeks in southern Europe whilst the climatic conditions in northern Europe are limiting its potential activity to a maximum of 23 weeks. The peak of egg density is found during summer months from end of July until end of September. During these two months the climatic conditions for species development are optimal, which implies a higher risk for arbovirus transmission by Ae. albopictus and occurrence of epidemics.

The genomic signal of local environmental adaptation in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes

Local adaptation is important when predicting arthropod-borne disease risk because of its impacts on vector population fitness and persistence. However, the extent that vector populations are adapted to the environment generally remains unknown. Despite low population structure and high gene flow in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes across Panama, excepting the province of Bocas del Toro, we identified 128 candidate SNPs, clustered within 17 genes, which show a strong genomic signal of local environmental adaptation. This putatively adaptive variation occurred across fine geographical scales with the composition and frequency of candidate adaptive loci differing between populations in wet tropical environments along the Caribbean coast and dry tropical conditions typical of the Pacific coast. Temperature and vegetation were important predictors of adaptive genomic variation in Ae. aegypti with several potential areas of local adaptation identified. Our study lays the foundations of future work to understand whether environmental adaptation in Ae. aegypti impacts the arboviral disease landscape and whether this could either aid or hinder efforts of population control.

Transcriptional variation of sensory-related genes in natural populations of Aedes albopictus

BACKGROUND

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is a highly dangerous invasive vector of numerous medically important arboviruses including dengue, chikungunya and Zika. In four decades it has spread from tropical Southeast Asia to many parts of the world in both tropical and temperate climes. The rapid invasion process of this mosquito is supported by its high ecological and genetic plasticity across different life history traits. Our aim was to investigate whether wild populations, both native and adventive, also display transcriptional genetic variability for functions that may impact their biology, behaviour and ability to transmit arboviruses, such as sensory perception.

RESULTS

Antennal transcriptome data were derived from mosquitoes from a native population from Ban Rai, Thailand and from three adventive Mediterranean populations: Athens, Greece and Arco and Trento from Italy. Clear inter-population differential transcriptional activity was observed in different gene categories related to sound perception, olfaction and viral infection. The greatest differences were detected between the native Thai and the Mediterranean populations. The two Italian populations were the most similar. Nearly one million quality filtered SNP loci were identified.

CONCLUSION

The ability to express this great inter-population transcriptional variability highlights, at the functional level, the remarkable genetic flexibility of this mosquito species. We can hypothesize that the differential expression of genes, including those involved in sensory perception, in different populations may enable Ae. albopictus to exploit different environments and hosts, thus contributing to its status as a global vector of arboviruses of public health importance. The large number of SNP loci present in these transcripts represents a useful addition to the arsenal of high-resolution molecular markers and a resource that can be used to detect selective pressure and adaptive changes that may have occurred during the colonization process.