The influence of changing fire regimes on specialized plant-animal interactions

Ecological effects of changing fire regimes are well documented for plant and animal populations, but less is known about how fire influences, and is influenced by, specialized plant-animal interactions. In this review, we identified mutualistic (pollination, seed dispersal and food provision), commensal (habitat provision) and antagonistic (seed predation, herbivory and parasitism) plant-animal interactions from fire-prone ecosystems. We focused on specialized interactions where a single genus depended on one to two genera in a single family of plant or animal. We categorized the plant partner's post-fire reproductive mode to assess the likely outcome of changing fire regimes on ecological functions provided by these interactions. Traits underlying specialization in fire-prone ecosystems for plants were: post-fire reproductive mode, time to maturity, morphology and phenology; and, for animals: dispersal, specialized organs, nesting and egg deposition substrates, plant consumption behaviours and pollinator behaviours. Finally, we identified a number of cases where stabilizing feedbacks maintained plant-animal interactions under natural fire regimes. Potential reinforcing feedbacks were also identified, but were more likely to happen abruptly and result in collapse of the plant-animal partnership, or partner switching. Our synthesis reveals how fire regime changes impact fire-dependent specialist plant-animal interactions and potentially drive eco-evolutionary dynamics in fire-prone ecosystems globally.This article is part of the theme issue 'Novel fire regimes under climate changes and human influences: impacts, ecosystem responses and feedbacks'.

Character displacement or priority effects: immigration timing can affect community assembly with rapid evolution

Understanding how biological communities assemble in the presence of rapid evolution is becoming an important topic in ecology. Previous studies demonstrated that community assembly can be affected by two types of eco-evolutionary dynamics: evolution-mediated priority effect (EPE) and ecological character displacement (ECD). In EPE, early-arriving species prevent colonization of late-arriving species via local adaptation (i.e. community monopolization), whereas ECD promotes species coexistence by niche partitioning. Researchers tended to discuss the two processes separately, but it should be possible for those processes to operate in the same system depending on various conditions. Here, we developed a theoretical framework that integrates the two processes by using a simple two-species competition model with eco-evolutionary feedback. We revealed that, when an early-arriving species evolves, the difference in immigration timing between the early-arriving and a late-arriving species can be a key parameter. When the difference is small, ECD occurs because insufficient local adaptation of the early-arriving species allows colonization of the late-arriving species. When the difference is large, however, EPE occurs because niche pre-emption by local adaptation of the early-arriving species prevents colonization of the late-arriving species. Further theoretical and empirical studies will be important to better understand eco-evolutionary community assembly with ECD and EPE.

High importance of indirect evolutionary rescue in a small food web

Evolutionary rescue may allow species to survive environmental change, but how this mechanism operates in food webs is poorly understood. Here, the evolutionary rescue was investigated in a small model food web, systematically allowing the evolution of each single species in order to reveal how its adaptation affects the persistence of itself and others. The impact of evolution was highly species-specific and not necessarily positive: only one species, the specialist predator, consistently had a positive impact on overall persistence. Most strikingly, evolution overwhelmingly affected other species: rescue of others (indirect rescue) was far more frequent than self-rescue, and negative effects were nearly always indirect. This demonstrates that evolutionary rescue in food webs is inextricably bound up with species interactions, as the effects of evolution in one species ripple through the entire community. It is therefore critically important to consider the food web context in efforts to understand how species may survive global change.

Extending eco-evolutionary theory with oligomorphic dynamics

Understanding the interplay between ecological processes and the evolutionary dynamics of quantitative traits in natural systems remains a major challenge. Two main theoretical frameworks are used to address this question, adaptive dynamics and quantitative genetics, both of which have strengths and limitations and are often used by distinct research communities to address different questions. In order to make progress, new theoretical developments are needed that integrate these approaches and strengthen the link to empirical data. Here, we discuss a novel theoretical framework that bridges the gap between quantitative genetics and adaptive dynamics approaches. 'Oligomorphic dynamics' can be used to analyse eco-evolutionary dynamics across different time scales and extends quantitative genetics theory to account for multimodal trait distributions, the dynamical nature of genetic variance, the potential for disruptive selection due to ecological feedbacks, and the non-normal or skewed trait distributions encountered in nature. Oligomorphic dynamics explicitly takes into account the effect of environmental feedback, such as frequency- and density-dependent selection, on the dynamics of multi-modal trait distributions and we argue it has the potential to facilitate a much tighter integration between eco-evolutionary theory and empirical data.

Predation drives complex eco-evolutionary dynamics in sexually selected traits

Predation plays a role in preventing the evolution of ever more complicated sexual displays, because such displays often increase an individual's predation risk. Sexual selection theory, however, omits a key feature of predation in modeling costs to sexually selected traits: Predation is density dependent. As a result of this density dependence, predator-prey dynamics should feed back into the evolution of sexual displays, which, in turn, feeds back into predator-prey dynamics. Here, we develop both population and quantitative genetic models of sexual selection that explicitly link the evolution of sexual displays with predator-prey dynamics. Our primary result is that predation can drive eco-evolutionary cycles in sexually selected traits. We also show that mechanistically modeling the cost to sexual displays as predation leads to novel outcomes such as the maintenance of polymorphism in sexual displays and alters ecological dynamics by muting prey cycles. These results suggest predation as a potential mechanism to maintain variation in sexual displays and underscore that short-term studies of sexual display evolution may not accurately predict long-run dynamics. Further, they demonstrate that a common verbal model (that predation limits sexual displays) with widespread empirical support can result in unappreciated, complex dynamics due to the density-dependent nature of predation.

Limited predictability of body length in a fish population

Recent theoretical studies have identified chaotic dynamics in eco-evolutionary models. Yet, empirical evidence for eco-evolutionary chaos in natural ecosystems is lacking. In this study, we combine analyses of empirical data and an eco-evolutionary model to uncover chaotic dynamics of body length in a fish population (northeast Arctic cod: Gadus morhua). Consistent with chaotic attractors, the largest Lyapunov exponent (LE) of empirical data is positive, and approximately matches the LE of the model calculation, thus suggesting the potential for chaotic dynamics in this fish population. We also find that the autocorrelation function (ACF) of both empirical data and eco-evolutionary model shows a similar lag of approximately 7 years. Our combined analyses of natural time series and mathematical models suggest that chaotic dynamics of a phenotypic trait may be driven by trait evolution. This finding supports a growing theory that eco-evolutionary feedbacks can produce chaotic dynamics.

Ecological Constraints on the Evolution of Consumer Functional Responses

Intrinsically generated oscillations are a defining feature of consumer-resource interactions. They can have important consequences for the evolution of consumer functional responses. Functional response traits that maximize resource fitness (low attack rate and long handling time) and consumer fitness (high attack rate and short handling time) generate high-amplitude oscillations that can predispose species to extinction during periods of low abundances. This suggests that the ecological consequences of consumer-resource oscillations may impede evolutionary outcomes that maximize fitness. Data suggest this to be a strong possibility. Time series analyses reveal consumer-resource cycles to be infrequent in real communities, and functional response studies show a preponderance of low attack rates and/or short handling times that preclude oscillations but maximize neither species' fitness. Here I present a mathematical model to address this tension between ecological dynamics and the evolution of functional response traits. I show that the empirically observed attack rate-handling time distributions emerge naturally from the interplay between individual-level selection and the population-level constraint of oscillation-induced extinction. Extinction at low abundances curtails stabilizing selection toward trait values that maximize fitness but induce large-amplitude oscillations. As a result, persistent interactions are those in which the mean attack rate is low and/or the mean handling time is short. These findings emphasize the importance of incorporating oscillation-induced extinction into models that link food web topology to community persistence.

Evolutionary rescue can prevent rate-induced tipping

The transformation of ecosystems proceeds at unprecedented rates. Recent studies suggest that high rates of environmental change can cause rate-induced tipping. In ecological models, the associated rate-induced critical transition manifests during transient dynamics in which populations drop to dangerously low densities. In this work, we study how indirect evolutionary rescue—due to the rapid evolution of a predator’s trait—can save a prey population from the rate-induced collapse. Therefore, we explicitly include the time-dependent dynamics of environmental change and evolutionary adaptation in an eco-evolutionary system. We then examine how fast the evolutionary adaptation needs to be to counteract the response to environmental degradation and express this relationship by means of a critical rate. Based on this critical rate, we conclude that indirect evolutionary rescue is more probable if the predator population possesses a high genetic variation and, simultaneously, the environmental change is slow. Hence, our results strongly emphasize that the maintenance of biodiversity requires a deceleration of the anthropogenic degradation of natural habitats.

Complex eco-evolutionary dynamics induced by the coevolution of predator–prey movement strategies

The coevolution of predators and prey has been the subject of much empirical and theoretical research that produced intriguing insights into the interplay of ecology and evolution. To allow for mathematical analysis, models of predator–prey coevolution are often coarse-grained, focussing on population-level processes and largely neglecting individual-level behaviour. As selection is acting on individual-level properties, we here present a more mechanistic approach: an individual-based simulation model for the coevolution of predators and prey on a fine-grained resource landscape, where features relevant for ecology (like changes in local densities) and evolution (like differences in survival and reproduction) emerge naturally from interactions between individuals. Our focus is on predator–prey movement behaviour, and we present a new method for implementing evolving movement strategies in an efficient and intuitively appealing manner. Throughout their lifetime, predators and prey make repeated movement decisions on the basis of their movement strategies. Over the generations, the movement strategies evolve, as individuals that successfully survive and reproduce leave their strategy to more descendants. We show that the movement strategies in our model evolve rapidly, thereby inducing characteristic spatial patterns like spiral waves and static spots. Transitions between these patterns occur frequently, induced by antagonistic coevolution rather than by external events. Regularly, evolution leads to the emergence and stable coexistence of qualitatively different movement strategies within the same population. Although the strategy space of our model is continuous, we often observe the evolution of discrete movement types. We argue that rapid evolution, coexistent movement types, and phase shifts between different ecological regimes are not a peculiarity of our model but a result of more realistic assumptions on eco-evolutionary feedbacks and the number of evolutionary degrees of freedom.

Cryptic eco-evolutionary feedback in the city: Urban evolution of prey dampens the effect of urban evolution of the predator

Most research on eco-evolutionary feedbacks focuses on ecological consequences of evolution in a single species. This ignores the fact that evolution in response to a shared environmental factor in multiple species involved in interactions could alter the net cumulative effect of evolution on ecology. We empirically tested whether urbanization-driven evolution in a predator (nymphs of the damselfly Ischnura elegans) and its prey (the water flea Daphnia magna) jointly shape the outcome of predation under simulated heatwaves. Both interactors show genetic trait adaptation to urbanization, particularly to higher temperatures. We cross-exposed common-garden reared damselflies and Daphnia from replicated urban and rural populations, and quantified predation rates and functional response traits. Urban damselfly nymphs showed higher encounter and predation rates than rural damselflies when exposed to rural prey, but this difference disappeared when they preyed on urban Daphnia. This represents a case of a cryptic evo-to-eco feedback, where the evolution of one species dampens the effects of the evolution of another species on their interaction strength. The effects of evolution of each single species were strong: the scenario in which only the predator or prey was adapted to urbanization resulted in a c. 250% increase in encounter rate and a c. 25% increase in predation rate, compared to the rural predator-rural prey combination. Our results provide unique evidence for eco-evolutionary feedbacks in cities, and underscore the importance of a multi-species approach in eco-evolutionary dynamics research.

Genetic and plastic rewiring of food webs under climate change

Climate change is altering ecological and evolutionary processes across biological scales. These simultaneous effects of climate change pose a major challenge for predicting the future state of populations, communities and ecosystems. This challenge is further exacerbated by the current lack of integration of research focused on these different scales.

We propose that integrating the fields of quantitative genetics and food web ecology will reveal new insights on how climate change may reorganize biodiversity across levels of organization. This is because quantitative genetics links the genotypes of individuals to population‐level phenotypic variation due to genetic (G), environmental (E) and gene‐by‐environment (G × E) factors. Food web ecology, on the other hand, links population‐level phenotypes to the structure and dynamics of communities and ecosystems.

We synthesize data and theory across these fields and find evidence that genetic (G) and plastic (E and G × E) phenotypic variation within populations will change in magnitude under new climates in predictable ways. We then show how changes in these sources of phenotypic variation can rewire food webs by altering the number and strength of species interactions, with consequences for ecosystem resilience. We also find evidence suggesting there are predictable asymmetries in genetic and plastic trait variation across trophic levels, which set the pace for phenotypic change and food web responses to climate change. Advances in genomics now make it possible to partition G, E and G × E phenotypic variation in natural populations, allowing tests of the hypotheses we propose.

By synthesizing advances in quantitative genetics and food web ecology, we provide testable predictions for how the structure and dynamics of biodiversity will respond to climate change.

The sources of variation for individual prey-to-predator size ratios

The relative body size at which predators are willing to attack prey, a key trait for predator-prey interactions, is usually considered invariant. However, this ratio can vary widely among individuals or populations. Identifying the range and origin of such variation is key to understanding the strength and constraints on selection in both predators and prey. Still, these sources of variation remain largely unknown. We filled this gap by measuring the genetic, maternal and environmental variation of the maximum prey-to-predator size ratio (PPSR_max) in juveniles of the wolf spider Lycosa fasciiventris using a paternal half-sib split-brood design, in which each male was paired with two females and the offspring reared in two food environments: poor and rich. Each juvenile spider was then sequentially offered crickets of decreasing size and the maximum prey size killed was determined. We also measured body size and body condition of spiders upon emergence and just before the trial. We found low, but significant heritability (h² = 0.069) and dominance and common environmental variance (d² + 4c² = 0.056). PPSR_max was also partially explained by body condition (during trial) but there was no effect of the rearing food environment. Finally, a maternal correlation between body size early in life and PPSR_max indicated that offspring born larger were less predisposed to feed on larger prey later in life. Therefore, PPSR_max, a central trait in ecosystems, can vary widely and this variation is due to different sources, with important consequences for changes in this trait in the short and long terms.

Evolutionarily stable strategies in stable and periodically fluctuating populations: The Rosenzweig-MacArthur predator-prey model

An evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) is an evolutionary strategy that, if adapted by a population, cannot be invaded by any deviating (mutant) strategy. The concept of ESS has been extensively studied and widely applied in ecology and evolutionary biology [M. Smith, On Evolution (1972)] but typically on the assumption that the system is ecologically stable. With reference to a Rosenzweig-MacArthur predator-prey model [M. Rosenzweig, R. MacArthur, Am. Nat. 97, 209-223 (1963)], we derive the mathematical conditions for the existence of an ESS when the ecological dynamics have asymptotically stable limit points as well as limit cycles. By extending the framework of Reed and Stenseth [J. Reed, N. C. Stenseth, J. Theoret. Biol. 108, 491-508 (1984)], we find that ESSs occur at values of the evolutionary strategies that are local optima of certain functions of the model parameters. These functions are identified and shown to have a similar form for both stable and fluctuating populations. We illustrate these results with a concrete example.

Evolutionary and Plastic Phenotypic Change Can Be Just as Fast as Changes in Population Densities

AbstractEvolution and plasticity can drive population-level phenotypic change (e.g., changes in the mean phenotype) on timescales comparable to changes in population densities. However, it is unclear whether phenotypic change has the potential to be just as fast as changes in densities or whether comparable rates of change occur only when densities are changing slow enough for phenotypes to keep pace. Moreover, it is unclear whether this depends on the mode of adaptation. Using scaling theory and fast-slow dynamical systems theory, we develop a method for comparing maximum rates of density and phenotypic change estimated from population-level time-series data. We apply our method to 30 published empirical studies where changes in morphological traits are caused by evolution, plasticity, or an unknown combination. For every study, the maximum rate of phenotypic change was between 0.5 and 2.5 times faster than the maximum rate of change in density. Moreover, there were no systematic differences between systems with different modes of adaptation. Our results show that plasticity and evolution can drive phenotypic change just as fast as changes in densities. We discuss the implications of our results in terms of the strengths of feedbacks between population densities and traits.

Continual evolution through coupled fast and slow feedbacks

Continual evolution describes the unceasing evolution of at least one trait involving at least one organism. The Red Queen Hypothesis is a specific case in which continual evolution results from coevolution of at least two species. While microevolutionary studies have described examples in which evolution does not cease, understanding which general conditions lead to continual evolution or to stasis remains a major challenge. In many cases, it is unclear which experimental features or model assumptions are necessary for the observed continual evolution to emerge, and whether the described behavior is robust to variations in the given setup. Here, we aim to find the minimal set of conditions under which continual evolution occurs. To this end, we present a theoretical framework that does not assume any specific functional form and, therefore, can be applied to a wide variety of systems. Our framework is also general enough to make predictions about both monomorphic and polymorphic populations. We show that the combination of a fast positive and a slow negative feedback between environment, population, and evolving traits causes continual evolution to emerge even from the evolution of a single evolving trait, provided that the ecological timescale is sufficiently faster than the timescales of mutation and the negative feedback. Our approach and results thus contribute to a deeper understanding of the evolutionary dynamics resulting from biotic interactions.

Destabilizing evolutionary and eco-evolutionary feedbacks drive empirical eco-evolutionary cycles

We develop a method to identify how ecological, evolutionary, and eco-evolutionary feedbacks influence system stability. We apply our method to nine empirically parametrized eco-evolutionary models of exploiter-victim systems from the literature and identify which particular feedbacks cause some systems to converge to a steady state or to exhibit sustained oscillations. We find that ecological feedbacks involving the interactions between all species and evolutionary and eco-evolutionary feedbacks involving only the interactions between exploiter species (predators or pathogens) are typically stabilizing. In contrast, evolutionary and eco-evolutionary feedbacks involving the interactions between victim species (prey or hosts) are destabilizing more often than not. We also find that while eco-evolutionary feedbacks rarely altered system stability from what would be predicted from just ecological and evolutionary feedbacks, eco-evolutionary feedbacks have the potential to alter system stability at faster or slower speeds of evolution. As the number of empirical studies demonstrating eco-evolutionary feedbacks increases, we can continue to apply these methods to determine whether the patterns we observe are common in other empirical communities.

How (co)evolution alters predator responses to increased mortality: extinction thresholds and hydra effects

Population responses to environmental change depend on both the ecological interactions between species and the evolutionary responses of all species. In this study, we explore how evolution in prey, predators, or both species affect the responses of predator populations to a sustained increase in mortality. We use an eco-evolutionary predator-prey model to explore how evolution alters the predator extinction threshold (defined as the minimum mortality rate that prevents population growth at low predator densities) and predator hydra effects (increased predator abundance in response to increased mortality). Our analysis identifies how evolutionary responses of prey and predators individually affect the predator extinction threshold and hydra effects, and how those effects are altered by interactions between the evolutionary responses. Based on our theoretical results, we predict that it is common in natural systems for evolutionary responses in one or both species to allow predators to persist at higher mortality rates than would be possible in the absence of evolution (i.e., evolution increases the predator mortality extinction threshold). We also predict that evolution-driven hydra effects occur in a minority of natural systems, but are not rare. We revisited published eco-evolutionary models and found that evolution causes hydra effects and increases the predator extinction threshold in many studies, but those effects have been overlooked. We discuss the implications of these results for species conservation, predicting population responses to environmental change, and the possibility of evolutionary rescue.

How Does the Evolution of Universal Ecological Traits Affect Population Size? Lessons from Simple Models

This article argues that adaptive evolutionary change in a consumer species should frequently decrease (and maladaptive change should increase) population size, producing adaptive decline. This conclusion is based on analysis of multiple consumer-resource models that examine evolutionary change in consumer traits affecting the universal ecological parameters of attack rate, conversion efficiency, and mortality. Two scenarios are investigated. In one, evolutionary equilibrium is initially maintained by opposing effects on the attack rate and other growth rate parameters; the environment or trait is perturbed, and the trait then evolves to a new (or back to a previous) equilibrium. Here evolution exhibits adaptive decline in up to one-half of all cases. The other scenario assumes a genetic perturbation having purely fitness-increasing effects. Here adaptive decline in the consumer requires that the resource be self-reproducing and overexploited and requires a sufficient increase in the attack rate. However, if the resource exhibits adaptive defense via behavior or evolution, adaptive decline may characterize consumer traits affecting all parameters. Favorable environmental change producing parameter shifts similar to those produced by adaptive evolution has similar counterintuitive effects on consumer population size. Many different food web models have already been shown to exhibit such counterintuitive changes in some species.

Co-adaptation impacts the robustness of predator-prey dynamics against perturbations

Global change threatens the maintenance of ecosystem functions that are shaped by the persistence and dynamics of populations. It has been shown that the persistence of species increases if they possess larger trait adaptability. Here, we investigate whether trait adaptability also affects the robustness of population dynamics of interacting species and thereby shapes the reliability of ecosystem functions that are driven by these dynamics. We model co-adaptation in a predator-prey system as changes to predator offense and prey defense due to evolution or phenotypic plasticity. We investigate how trait adaptation affects the robustness of population dynamics against press perturbations to environmental parameters and against pulse perturbations targeting species abundances and their trait values. Robustness of population dynamics is characterized by resilience, elasticity, and resistance. In addition to employing established measures for resilience and elasticity against pulse perturbations (extinction probability and return time), we propose the warping distance as a new measure for resistance against press perturbations, which compares the shapes and amplitudes of pre- and post-perturbation population dynamics. As expected, we find that the robustness of population dynamics depends on the speed of adaptation, but in nontrivial ways. Elasticity increases with speed of adaptation as the system returns more rapidly to the pre-perturbation state. Resilience, in turn, is enhanced by intermediate speeds of adaptation, as here trait adaptation dampens biomass oscillations. The resistance of population dynamics strongly depends on the target of the press perturbation, preventing a simple relationship with the adaptation speed. In general, we find that low robustness often coincides with high amplitudes of population dynamics. Hence, amplitudes may indicate the robustness against perturbations also in other natural systems with similar dynamics. Our findings show that besides counteracting extinctions, trait adaptation indeed strongly affects the robustness of population dynamics against press and pulse perturbations.