Ecosystem carbon storage considering combined environmental and land-use changes in the future and pathways to carbon neutrality in developed regions

Assessing the carbon storage capacity of terrestrial ecosystems is crucial for land management and carbon reduction policymaking. There is still a knowledge gap regarding how ecosystem carbon storage will be impacted by combined environmental and land-use factors and their spatial-temporal changes, especially in developed regions where urbanization has slowed down. This study investigated how developed regions in subtropical and tropical areas might increase carbon storage and achieve carbon neutrality, using Guangdong Province in South China as an example. Based on the sustainable development assumption, three land-management scenarios were developed and simulated for 2020-2060 using the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model. Without considering disturbance and natural losses, carbon storage was estimated by net ecosystem productivity (NEP)-the difference between net primary productivity (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (HR). NPP was predicted using an artificial neural network model trained by historical NPP data and 16 environmental and land-use variables. HR was predicted using soil respiration models from previous research. Based on the balance between carbon storage and emissions, we predicted the allowable fossil fuel consumption to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions in 2060. The results show that Guangdong's total carbon storage changes from 73.7 MtC in 2020 to 70.6-74.8 MtC in 2060 under different scenarios. Nonlinear relationships exist between the carbon stored and the areas of different land-use types. Topography, temperatures, and land-use configurations jointly lead to significantly varied carbon storage between croplands and between forests in space and time. Protecting and regenerating forests in subtropical areas and forest edges is more effective than afforestation in lowland tropical areas for storing carbon. Net-zero CO2 emissions rely more on reducing emissions than land management. To achieve this, the proportion of fossil energy in total energy consumption should be lowered from 75.5 % in 2020 to ~25 % in 2060.

Variability of ecosystem carbon source from microbial respiration is controlled by rainfall dynamics

Soil heterotrophic respiration (R _h) represents an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle that affects whether ecosystems function as carbon sources or sinks. Due to the complex interactions between biological and physical factors controlling microbial growth, R _h is uncertain and difficult to predict, limiting our ability to anticipate future climate trajectories. Here we analyze the global FLUXNET 2015 database aided by a probabilistic model of microbial growth to examine the ecosystem-scale dynamics of R _h and identify primary predictors of its variability. We find that the temporal variability in R _h is consistently distributed according to a Gamma distribution, with shape and scale parameters controlled only by rainfall characteristics and vegetation productivity. This distribution originates from the propagation of fast hydrologic fluctuations on the slower biological dynamics of microbial growth and is independent of biome, soil type, and microbial physiology. This finding allows us to readily provide accurate estimates of the mean R _h and its variance, as confirmed by a comparison with an independent global dataset. Our results suggest that future changes in rainfall regime and net primary productivity will significantly alter the dynamics of R _h and the global carbon budget. In regions that are becoming wetter, R _h may increase faster than net primary productivity, thereby reducing the carbon storage capacity of terrestrial ecosystems.

Spatial biases of information influence global estimates of soil respiration: How can we improve global predictions?

Soil respiration (Rs), the efflux of CO₂ from soils to the atmosphere, is a major component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, but is poorly constrained from regional to global scales. The global soil respiration database (SRDB) is a compilation of in situ Rs observations from around the globe that has been consistently updated with new measurements over the past decade. It is unclear whether the addition of data to new versions has produced better-constrained global Rs estimates. We compared two versions of the SRDB (v3.0 n = 5173 and v5.0 n = 10,366) to determine how additional data influenced global Rs annual sum, spatial patterns and associated uncertainty (1 km spatial resolution) using a machine learning approach. A quantile regression forest model parameterized using SRDBv3 yielded a global Rs sum of 88.6 Pg C year^-1 , and associated uncertainty of 29.9 (mean absolute error) and 57.9 (standard deviation) Pg C year^-1 , whereas parameterization using SRDBv5 yielded 96.5 Pg C year^-1 and associated uncertainty of 30.2 (mean average error) and 73.4 (standard deviation) Pg C year^-1 . Empirically estimated global heterotrophic respiration (Rh) from v3 and v5 were 49.9-50.2 (mean 50.1) and 53.3-53.5 (mean 53.4) Pg C year^-1 , respectively. SRDBv5's inclusion of new data from underrepresented regions (e.g., Asia, Africa, South America) resulted in overall higher model uncertainty. The largest differences between models parameterized with different SRDVB versions were in arid/semi-arid regions. The SRDBv5 is still biased toward northern latitudes and temperate zones, so we tested an optimized global distribution of Rs measurements, which resulted in a global sum of 96.4 ± 21.4 Pg C year^-1 with an overall lower model uncertainty. These results support current global estimates of Rs but highlight spatial biases that influence model parameterization and interpretation and provide insights for design of environmental networks to improve global-scale Rs estimates.

Arctic Vegetation Mapping Using Unsupervised Training Datasets and Convolutional Neural Networks

Land cover datasets are essential for modeling and analysis of Arctic ecosystem structure and function and for understanding land–atmosphere interactions at high spatial resolutions. However, most Arctic land cover products are generated at a coarse resolution, often limited due to cloud cover, polar darkness, and poor availability of high-resolution imagery. A multi-sensor remote sensing-based deep learning approach was developed for generating high-resolution (5 m) vegetation maps for the western Alaskan Arctic on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. The fusion of hyperspectral, multispectral, and terrain datasets was performed using unsupervised and supervised classification techniques over a ∼343 km2 area, and a high-resolution (5 m) vegetation classification map was generated. An unsupervised technique was developed to classify high-dimensional remote sensing datasets into cohesive clusters. We employed a quantitative method to add supervision to the unlabeled clusters, producing a fully labeled vegetation map. We then developed convolutional neural networks (CNNs) using the multi-sensor fusion datasets to map vegetation distributions using the original classes and the classes produced by the unsupervised classification method. To validate the resulting CNN maps, vegetation observations were collected at 30 field plots during the summer of 2016, and the resulting vegetation products developed were evaluated against them for accuracy. Our analysis indicates the CNN models based on the labels produced by the unsupervised classification method provided the most accurate mapping of vegetation types, increasing the validation score (i.e., precision) from 0.53 to 0.83 when evaluated against field vegetation observations.

Networking our science to characterize the state, vulnerabilities, and management opportunities of soil organic matter

Soil organic matter (SOM) supports the Earth's ability to sustain terrestrial ecosystems, provide food and fiber, and retains the largest pool of actively cycling carbon. Over 75% of the soil organic carbon (SOC) in the top meter of soil is directly affected by human land use. Large land areas have lost SOC as a result of land use practices, yet there are compensatory opportunities to enhance productivity and SOC storage in degraded lands through improved management practices. Large areas with and without intentional management are also being subjected to rapid changes in climate, making many SOC stocks vulnerable to losses by decomposition or disturbance. In order to quantify potential SOC losses or sequestration at field, regional, and global scales, measurements for detecting changes in SOC are needed. Such measurements and soil-management best practices should be based on well established and emerging scientific understanding of processes of C stabilization and destabilization over various timescales, soil types, and spatial scales. As newly engaged members of the International Soil Carbon Network, we have identified gaps in data, modeling, and communication that underscore the need for an open, shared network to frame and guide the study of SOM and SOC and their management for sustained production and climate regulation.

Historical climate controls soil respiration responses to current soil moisture

Ecosystem carbon losses from soil microbial respiration are a key component of global carbon cycling, resulting in the transfer of 40-70 Pg carbon from soil to the atmosphere each year. Because these microbial processes can feed back to climate change, understanding respiration responses to environmental factors is necessary for improved projections. We focus on respiration responses to soil moisture, which remain unresolved in ecosystem models. A common assumption of large-scale models is that soil microorganisms respond to moisture in the same way, regardless of location or climate. Here, we show that soil respiration is constrained by historical climate. We find that historical rainfall controls both the moisture dependence and sensitivity of respiration. Moisture sensitivity, defined as the slope of respiration vs. moisture, increased fourfold across a 480-mm rainfall gradient, resulting in twofold greater carbon loss on average in historically wetter soils compared with historically drier soils. The respiration-moisture relationship was resistant to environmental change in field common gardens and field rainfall manipulations, supporting a persistent effect of historical climate on microbial respiration. Based on these results, predicting future carbon cycling with climate change will require an understanding of the spatial variation and temporal lags in microbial responses created by historical rainfall.