Positive severity feedback between consecutive fires in dry eucalypt forests of southern Australia

Identifying and managing disturbance-stimulated flammability in woody ecosystems

Many forest types globally have been subject to an increase in the frequency of, and area burnt by, high-severity wildfire. Here we explore the role that previous disturbance has played in increasing the extent and severity of subsequent forest fires. We summarise evidence documenting and explaining the mechanisms underpinning a pulse of flammability that may follow disturbances such as fire, logging, clearing or windthrow (a process we term disturbance-stimulated flammability). Disturbance sometimes initiates a short initial period of low flammability, but then drives an extended period of increased flammability as vegetation regrows. Our analysis initially focuses on well-documented cases in Australia, but we also discuss where these pattens may apply elsewhere, including in the Northern Hemisphere. We outline the mechanisms by which disturbance drives flammability through disrupting the ecological controls that limit it in undisturbed forests. We then develop and test a conceptual model to aid prediction of woody vegetation communities where such patterns of disturbance-stimulated flammability may occur. We discuss the interaction of ecological controls with climate change, which is driving larger and more severe fires. We also explore the current state of knowledge around the point where disturbed, fire-prone stands are sufficiently widespread in landscapes that they may promote spatial contagion of high-severity wildfire that overwhelms any reduction in fire spread offered by less-flammable stands. We discuss how land managers might deal with the major challenges that changes in landscape cover and altered fire regimes may have created. This is especially pertinent in landscapes now dominated by extensive areas of young forest regenerating after logging, regrowing following broadscale fire including prescribed burning, or regenerating following agricultural land abandonment. Where disturbance is found to stimulate flammability, then key management actions should consider the long-term benefits of: (i) limiting disturbance-based management like logging or burning that creates young forests and triggers understorey development; (ii) protecting young forests from disturbances and assisting them to transition to an older, less-flammable state; and (iii) reinforcing the fire-inhibitory properties of older, less-flammable stands through methods for rapid fire detection and suppression.

Model analysis of post-fire management and potential reburn fire behavior

Recent trends in wildfire area burned have been characterized by large patches with high densities of standing dead trees, well outside of historical range of variability in many areas and presenting forest managers with difficult decisions regarding post-fire management. Post-fire tree harvesting, commonly called salvage logging, is a controversial management tactic that is often undertaken to recoup economic loss and, more recently, also to reduce future fuel hazard, especially when coupled with surface fuel reduction. It is unclear, however, whether the reductions in future fuels translate to meaningful changes to reburn fire behavior, particularly in the context of potentially detrimental effects of harvest on other ecosystem services. We used observed post-fire snag structure in four high severity burn scars located in the Western United States that had variable post-fire snag basal area (13.3-63.9 mg ha-2) to initialize a simulation study of future coarse and fine woody fuel hazard and associated reburn fire behavior and effects. We compared untreated controls to intensive and intermediate intensity harvest treatments, both simulated and actual. All treatments showed some number of years of extreme fire behavior during which flame lengths exceeded thresholds associated with wildfire resistance to control, implying that future fuel reductions achieved by the treatments did not translate to conditions conducive for effective reburn fire management. Harvested stands had less severe soil fire effects (soil heating and smoldering duration) than untreated controls, explained by lower predicted peak coarse woody fuels (CWD) in the harvested stands. At higher pre-treatment snag basal area, harvested stands better maintained CWD within the range desired to maintain ecosystem functions such as nutrient cycling and wildlife habitat. These simulation results indicate that, even with reduced fuel hazard, salvage treatments may still be associated with severe fire behavior for some time after wildfire, but achieved reductions in coarse woody fuels may also reduce some soil fire effects. Tradeoffs in the effects of post-fire harvest must be considered carefully in the context of forest regeneration, local conditions that govern salvage methods, snag fall and decomposition, and associated potential reburn fire effects.

RADAR-Vegetation Structural Perpendicular Index (R-VSPI) for the Quantification of Wildfire Impact and Post-Fire Vegetation Recovery

The precise information on fuel characteristics is essential for wildfire modelling and management. Satellite remote sensing can provide accurate and timely measurements of fuel characteristics. However, current estimates of fuel load changes from optical remote sensing are obstructed by seasonal cloud cover that limits their continuous assessments. This study utilises remotely sensed Synthetic-Aperture Radar (SAR) (Sentinel-1 backscatter) data as an alternative to optical-based imaging (Sentinel-2 scaled surface reflectance). SAR can penetrate clouds and offers high-spatial and medium-temporal resolution datasets and can hence complement the optical dataset. Inspired by the optical-based Vegetation Structural Perpendicular Index (VSPI), an SAR-based index termed RADAR-VSPI (R-VSPI) is introduced in this study. R-VSPI characterises the spatio-temporal changes in fuel load due to wildfire and the subsequent vegetation recovery thereof. The R-VSPI utilises SAR backscatter (σ°) from the co-polarized (VV) and cross-polarized (VH) channels at a centre frequency of 5.4 GHz. The newly developed index is applied over major wildfire events that occurred during the “Black Summer” wildfire season (2019–2020) in southern Australia. The condition of the fuel load was mapped every 5 (any orbit) to 12 (same orbit) days at an aggregated spatial resolution of 110 m. The results show that R-VSPI was able to quantify fuel depletion by wildfire (relative to healthy vegetation) and monitor its subsequent post-fire recovery. The information on fuel condition and heterogeneity improved at high-resolution by adapting the VSPI on a dual-polarization SAR dataset (R-VSPI) compared to the historic forest fuel characterisation methods (that used visible and infrared bands only for fuel estimations). The R-VSPI thus provides a complementary source of information on fuel load changes in a forest landscape compared to the optical-based VSPI, in particular when optical observations are not available due to cloud cover.

Improved accuracy of wildfire simulations using fuel hazard estimates based on environmental data

Wildfire extent and their impacts are increasing around the world. Fire management agencies use fire behaviour simulation models operationally (during a wildfire event) or strategically for risk assessment and treatment. These models provide agencies with increased knowledge of fire potential to improve identification of the best strategies for reducing risk. One of the greatest areas of uncertainty in fire simulations is the data relating to fuel, which are usually based on simplified response trajectories with time since fire within vegetation communities. There is a clear need to better predict relevant fuel variables across landscapes to reduce uncertainties in fire simulations. In this study, we compare the performance of fuel hazard models based on environmental variables (environmental model) with those currently implemented based on a negative exponential relationship with time since fire (NEGEXP) using the state of Victoria in south-eastern Australia as an environmentally diverse case study. The models predicted similar broadscale patterns in fuel hazard but with considerable regional variation. The NEGEXP model was less accurate than the environmental model, which had 41-47% accuracy on an independent data set cf. 24-35% for NEGEXP. Model differences resulted in significant differences in the extent and spatial location of predicted fires with NEGEXP consistently predicting larger fires. Fuel is made up of the live and dead components of vegetation, both of which are influenced by a range of environmental factors. As our study highlights, ignoring environmental factors in simple fuel models based on broad vegetation types (like NEGEXP) will likely compromise the predictive accuracy of fire behaviour models. Only when environmental factors are accounted for can we more accurately predict fuels across landscapes and thereby improve the accuracy of fire behaviour predictions and the estimation of fire risks.

The Effect of Antecedent Fire Severity on Reburn Severity and Fuel Structure in a Resprouting Eucalypt Forest in Victoria, Australia

Research highlights—Feedbacks between fire severity, vegetation structure and ecosystem flammability are understudied in highly fire-tolerant forests that are dominated by epicormic resprouters. We examined the relationships between the severity of two overlapping fires in a resprouting eucalypt forest and the subsequent effect of fire severity on fuel structure. We found that the likelihood of a canopy fire was the highest in areas that had previously been exposed to a high level of canopy scorch or consumption. Fuel structure was sensitive to the time since the previous canopy fire, but not the number of canopy fires. Background and Objectives—Feedbacks between fire and vegetation may constrain or amplify the effect of climate change on future wildfire behaviour. Such feedbacks have been poorly studied in forests dominated by highly fire-tolerant epicormic resprouters. Here, we conducted a case study based on two overlapping fires within a eucalypt forest that was dominated by epicormic resprouters to examine (1) whether past wildfire severity affects future wildfire severity, and (2) how combinations of understorey fire and canopy fire within reburnt areas affect fuel properties. Materials and Methods—The study focused on ≈77,000 ha of forest in south-eastern Australia that was burnt by a wildfire in 2007 and reburnt in 2013. The study system was dominated by eucalyptus trees that can resprout epicormically following fires that substantially scorch or consume foliage in the canopy layer. We used satellite-derived mapping to assess whether the severity of the 2013 fire was affected by the severity of the 2007 fire. Five levels of fire severity were considered (lowest to highest): unburnt, low canopy scorch, moderate canopy scorch, high canopy scorch and canopy consumption. Field surveys were then used to assess whether combinations of understorey fire (<80% canopy scorch) and canopy fire (>90% canopy consumption) recorded over the 2007 and 2013 fires caused differences in fuel structure. Results—Reburn severity was influenced by antecedent fire severity under severe fire weather, with the likelihood of canopy-consuming fire increasing with increasing antecedent fire severity up to those classes causing a high degree of canopy disturbance (i.e., high canopy scorch or canopy consumption). The increased occurrence of canopy-consuming fire largely came at the expense of the moderate and high canopy scorch classes, suggesting that there was a shift from crown scorch to crown consumption. Antecedent fire severity had little effect on the severity patterns of the 2013 fire under nonsevere fire weather. Areas affected by canopy fire in 2007 and/or 2013 had greater vertical connectivity of fuels than sites that were reburnt by understorey fires, though we found no evidence that repeated canopy fires were having compounding effects on fuel structure. Conclusions—Our case study suggests that exposure to canopy-defoliating fires has the potential to increase the severity of subsequent fires in resprouting eucalypt forests in the short term. We propose that the increased vertical connectivity of fuels caused by resprouting and seedling recruitment were responsible for the elevated fire severity. The effect of antecedent fire severity on reburn severity will likely be constrained by a range of factors, such as fire weather.

Out of the OCBILs: new hypotheses for the evolution, ecology and conservation of the eucalypts

OCBIL theory is a multi-hypothesis formulation aimed towards an understanding of the evolution, ecology and conservation of biological and cultural diversity on old, climatically buffered, infertile landscapes (OCBILs). OCBILs have been in existence contemporaneously with rainforest since Gondwanan times. Such landscapes are common in areas of eucalypt species richness embraced by Australia’s two Global Biodiversity Hotspots, the Southwest Australian Floristic Region and the Forests of East Australia. Here, I summarize evidence pertaining to the eucalypts in the context of a recent reformulation of OCBIL theory into 12 evolutionary, ecological and cultural hypotheses and ten conservation management hypotheses. A compelling argument emerges for a new interpretation of the eucalypts evolving out of the OCBILs, rather than out of the rainforests as traditionally interpreted. This calls for a significant reinterpretation of best conservation management of the eucalypts. For example, traditional ideas on application of fire in eucalypt communities regarded as well adapted to this disturbance need to give way to a more nuanced and cautious view. This review of eucalypts seen as evolving out of the OCBILs helps in understanding the group from several new perspectives. Interpretation of other sedentary plant and animal groups as out of the OCBILs is commended for further study.

Fire intensity effects on post-fire fuel recovery in Eucalyptus open forests of south-eastern Australia

This is a study of the re-accumulation of bushfire fuels following both prescribed fire of low fireline intensity (<700 kW m^-1) and wildfire of high intensity (>10,000 kW m^-1) in Australian Eucalyptus open forests of differing annual rainfall. Repeated measurements over 5 to 7 years of litter, elevated fuels, coarse woody debris, and bark revealed more rapid fuel recovery in higher rainfall forests compared with lower rainfall forests, following prescribed fire. In prescribed-burnt forests with mean annual rainfall 900-950 mm all fuel categories recovered to very high within seven years, with elevated fuels exceeding pre-fire loads by up to 200%. No fuels in prescribed-burnt forests with mean annual rainfall 600-650 mm recovered to pre-fire loads after six years suggesting that rainfall is an important driver of the rate of fuels recovery. High intensity wildfire in lower rainfall forests (600-650 mm) stimulated the rapid recovery of elevated fuels to over 600% of pre-fire loads - effectively transforming open forest formations into shrublands over the 6 years after fire. The recovery of elevated fuels following both prescribed fire in high rainfall forests and wildfire in low rainfall forests did not follow a gradual negative exponential increase often approximated by an Olson curve, but peaked early after fires. This suggests that the Olson recovery function, the default for predicting loads for these fuels in the operational fire behaviour models in use in south-eastern Australia, may not be appropriate in all cases. Fire simulations were run for forests burnt in wildfires using default (forest) and observed (shrubland) vegetation types. Under weather conditions similar to the previous wildfire, predictions for fireline intensities and the rate of spread would be at least 50% greater in transitional shrubland than forest, emphasizing the importance of accounting for vegetation dynamics for safe response management.

Analysing eucalypt expansion in Portugal as a fire-regime modifier

Eucalypts, especially blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus), have been extensively planted in Portugal and nowadays dominate most of its forest landscapes. Large-scale forestation programs can intensify fire activity, and blue gum plantations are often viewed as highly flammable due to the nature and structure of the fuel complex. The role of eucalypt plantations in the fire regime of Mediterranean climate regions is increasingly debated following the recent catastrophic wildfires in Portugal and elsewhere. In this study we examined the effects of eucalypt forestation on burned area (BA), fire size, and fire severity in Portugal. This was based on fire and vegetation mapping and statistics, fire weather data, satellite imagery, and national forest inventory data. Eucalypt BA comprised an average of 12.5% of total BA (1980-2017) and did not increase over time and with eucalypt expansion. Eucalypt metrics did not explain interannual BA variability after accounting for the effects of other variables. Forest fires started within eucalypt stands were the least likely to become large, and large fire size was irresponsive to forest composition. Likewise, forest type was a generally minor influence in mega-fire severity and accounted for just 1.4-8.6% of surface fuel-hazard metrics variation. In general, large-scale conversion of maritime pine to eucalypt stands (1970-2015) implied lower fuel accumulation. Fire activity results are consistent with fuel hazard results and express trade-offs between short-rotation forestry and fire behaviour in blue gum stands, with high spotting potential versus modest crown fire likelihood. We found no support for the contention of a modified fire regime as a result of eucalypt forestation in Portugal, but the rising undermanaged and abandoned blue gum estate, especially after large-fire seasons, is a concern for the future. However, it remains to be determined whether post-fire eucalypt regrowth is a higher fire threat than native vegetation in the same context.

Shifting States, Altered Fates: Divergent Fuel Moisture Responses after High Frequency Wildfire in an Obligate Seeder Eucalypt Forest

High frequency wildfires can shift the structure and composition of obligate seeder forests and initiate replacement with alternative vegetation states. In some forests, the alternative stable state is drier and more easily burned by subsequent fires, driving a positive feedback that promotes further wildfire and perpetuates alternative stable states. Mountain Ash (Eucalyptus regnans (F.Muell.)) forests are highly valued for their biodiversity, water, timber and carbon. Fires are a natural part of the lifecycle of these forests, but too frequent fires can eliminate Mountain Ash and trigger a transition to lower stature, non-eucalypt forests which are dominated by understorey species. This study sought to better understand the fuel moisture dynamics of alternative stable states resulting from high frequency wildfires. A vegetation mosaic in the Central Highlands, Victoria created a unique opportunity to measure fuel moisture in adjacent forest stands that differed in overstorey species composition and time since fire. Specifically, we measured fuel moisture and microclimate at two eucalypt sites (9 and 79 years old) and three non-eucalypt sites (two 9 year old and one 79 year old). Fuel availability, defined here as the number of days surface fuels were below 16% and dry enough to ignite and sustain fire, was calculated to estimate flammability. Fuel availability differed between sites, particularly as a function of time since fire, with recently burnt sites available to burn more often (4–17 versus 0–3 days). There were differences in fuel availability between non-eucalypt sites of the same age, suggesting that high frequency fire does not always lead to the same vegetation condition or outcome for fuel availability. This indicates there is potential for both positive and negative flammability feedbacks following state transition depending on the composition of the non-eucalypt state. This is the first study to provide empirical insight into the fuel moisture dynamics of alternative stable states in Mountain Ash forests.

Short-interval wildfires increase likelihood of resprouting failure in fire-tolerant trees

Epicormic and basal resprouting promote tree survival and persistence in fire-prone regions worldwide. However, little is known about limits to resprouting effectiveness when severe wildfires increase in frequency. In the extensive fire-tolerant mixed-eucalypt forests of temperate Australia, we examined the effects of one and two high-severity wildfires within six years on relationships between tree size (stem diameter) and resprouting (epicormic and/or basal), and on seedling regeneration. The diameter of eucalypts likely to be topkilled (no epicormic recovery) by high-severity fire increased from ∼15 cm after the first wildfire to ∼22 cm after the second. Middle-sized stems (22-36 cm diameter) were likely to resprout both epicormically and basally after one wildfire, but short-interval wildfires eroded this dual capacity, thereby reducing the probability of survival. Seedling abundance also decreased after two successive fires. Our study indicates that short-interval wildfires increased tree 'escape size', and eroded resprouting success particularly of middle-sized trees, which were too large for basal resprouting but too small for epicormic recovery. This, in combination with reduced seedling recruitment, portends structural and demographic challenges for even the most fire-tolerant forests under emerging fire regimes.